Search

Over the past decade, the most salient changes in macroeconomic conditions in developed economies have included rising government debt and population aging, which are strongly correlated with each other. This paper investigates fiscal multipliers by disentangling the effects of population aging from those of government debt. Our analysis, which uses heterogeneous panel data from 24 OECD economies, shows that while fiscal policy is ineffective for economies with high-debt levels, it is effective for economies with low-debt levels. Furthermore, the estimation results reveal that fiscal policy is ineffective for aged economies, regardless of the level of government debt. However, for nonaged economies, while fiscal policy leads to negative effects on output in times of high debt, its positive effects are more pronounced in times of low debt. Our results suggest that, for the effective implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, policy-based stimulation of employment in the labor market is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an overview of the macroeconomic challenges facing the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It discusses various macroeconomic indicators and the importance of achieving high levels of economic growth. The article also explores ASEAN's participation in Regional Value Chains (RVCs) and Global Value Chains (GVCs), particularly in the automotive and electronics industries. It examines the adoption of inflation targeting frameworks by ASEAN countries and evaluates their macroeconomic performance. The text further analyzes the fiscal sustainability of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, providing policy recommendations to enhance revenue collection and reduce subsidies. It also discusses the challenges faced by Vietnam's economy and suggests policy measures to overcome them. The article touches on economic issues in Cambodia and Laos, including technology spillovers, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) implementation, and financial system reform. The perspectives presented offer insights into these countries' economic situations and potential policy measures. [Extracted from the article]

Vietnam's long‐term economic growth comparisons with ASEAN nations have been striking since its 1986's economic reforms. Such key factors as economic liberalization, a young population and low‐cost labor, knowledge diffusion, and the manufacturing sector have driven Vietnam's growth. Until 2023, Vietnam has the potential to capitalize on several favorable circumstances, including the diversion of trade and investment from China, the growth of the middle class, and the global digital transformation. Nevertheless, Vietnam's economic growth will confront various obstacles and a declining trajectory that predates the COVID pandemic. To circumvent the risk of falling into the middle‐income trap, this paper proposes "active" economic integration, labor productivity, innovation and research and development, the services sector, and green growth as new growth drivers for Vietnam till 2030. Considering the many policy ideas put forth by the Vietnamese government and the World Bank, this paper presents several distinct recommendations on institution reform and human capital accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim/purpose – This study investigated the nexus between labor force dynamics and economic performance in Nigeria, India, and China.

India has not only maintained its top position among countries with the largest number of underweight adults but has also jumped to a higher position among countries with largest increase in the proportion of overweight people in the last three decades. More studies focus on double burden of malnutrition among women than on men. This study uses the quantile regression model to analyse the covariates associated with low and high body mass index (BMI) primarily among men aged 20–54 years during 2015–2016 in India. Occupations that involve more manual work help in maintaining a normal BMI along with better education, dietary diversity, and less sedentary lifestyle. A gendered comparison of men and their spouses highlights the differences in the association of covariates with BMI for men and women. The results from this study will provide insights for behavioural change at an individual level and inputs for public health intervention for addressing ill health concerns arising from underweight, overweight, or obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does education make people more or less religious? The previous literature offers mixed findings on the relationship between education and religiosity. This may be due to endogeneity bias: education and religiosity can be caused by a third variable such as culture or upbringing. We instrument education by exposure to the 1997 education reform in Turkey which increased mandatory schooling from 5 to 8 years. The schooling reform increased the probability that young girls would complete 8 years of schooling and report lower religiosity later in life. The reform apparently did not influence such outcomes for boys. These effects are observed primarily in females growing up in strongly religious or poor areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To ensure sustainable development and public welfare, the complex impact of demographic factors on macroeconomic dynamics should be investigated properly. Moreover, a few of the Sustainable Development Goals are interconnected robustly with demographic issues. There are some trends (e.g., substantial increase in longevity, rapidly lowered fertility, etc.) common for most advanced and emerging market economies. We examined the impact of selected socio-demographic factors on the real GDP per capita growth rates in a sample of the Baltic states and the Central European countries that have experienced economic transformations in the 1990s and either entered or declared their intentions to join the European Union in the future. We investigated general demographic dynamics in the region from 1960 to 2021. Due to the data availability, our special attention was focused primarily on the highlighted countries’ socio-demographic and macroeconomic variables from 2000 to 2021. We suggested that there was a certain interdependence between the working age population stratum specific weight, the elderly demographic dependency ratio, public healthcare spending, gross capital formation, and the real GDP per capita growth rates. In addition, we propose the main priorities for social and demographic policy in the field of well-being improvement. The potential ways to enhance the model – regarding healthcare, education, and the general profile of fiscal policy – have been disclosed as well.

To design family planning policies in Sub-Saharan Africa that are based on reproductive empowerment instead of reproductive control, knowledge on fertility preferences and trade-offs between the number of children and child-raising quality is key. This study is the first to empirically investigate fertility decisions and the quantity–quality trade-off theory from a preferences perspective. For this purpose, we use a novel discrete choice experimental method, including three quality and one quantity aspect of child-raising, and three socio-economic drivers of fertility. The choice experiment was executed with 1000 men and women in rural Senegal and rural Uganda. We show that rural households prefer to have many children, but women and non-poor respondents demonstrate a lower preference for many children than men and poor respondents. We find that the quantity–quality trade-off is a two-sided story. On the one hand, for most of the quality attributes, we confirm the existence of a trade-off. On the other hand, quantity and quality are complementary when all children in the household can attain a lower secondary school diploma. Our results imply that improving living conditions and access to infrastructure in rural areas may empower people to make decisions leading to a lower fertility. Aligning family planning programs with reproductive justice requires a shift in focus from reproductive control, based on mere expansion of contraceptive use, to reproductive empowerment, based on preference-based family planning programs. Improving rural livelihoods in general, and specific targeting of family planning programs to people with low-fertility preferences could be a first step. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the efficiency of Active Labor Market Policies (ALMP) expenditures of OECD countries taking into account the institutional quality of governance. The emphasis is on the quality of governance that affects the supply and demand of employment and the ability of governments to master public spending. Using the general method of moments (GMM) for 31 OECD countries over the 2000/2020 period, we show that measures of institutional quality such as Control of Corruption, the Effectiveness of Governance and the Regulatory Quality affects significantly the efficiency of ALMP on unemployment rate. This result is found consistent using Institutional Quality Index 'IQI'. The influence of institutional quality on the link between ALMP expenditure and unemployment rate suggest the importance for policy makers to enhance institutional quality. They consider it as a possible instrument for improvement results in labor market of OECD countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objective: Population-based estimates of the socioeconomic burden of multiple sclerosis (MS) are limited, especially regarding primary healthcare. This study aimed to estimate the excess costs of people with MS that could be attributed to their MS, including primary healthcare. Methods: An observational study was conducted of the 2806 working-aged people with MS in Stockholm, Sweden and 28,060 propensity score matched references without MS. Register-based resource use was quantified for 2018. Annual healthcare costs (primary, specialised outpatient, and inpatient healthcare visits along with prescribed drugs) and productivity losses (operationalised by sickness absence and disability pension days) were quantified using bottom-up costing. The costs of people with MS were compared with those of the references using independent t-tests with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to isolate the excess costs of MS from the mean difference. Results: The mean annual excess costs of MS for healthcare were €7381 (95% CI 6991–7816) per person with MS with disease-modifying therapies as the largest component (€4262, 95% CI 4026–4497). There was a mean annual excess cost for primary healthcare of €695 (95% CI 585–832) per person with MS, comprising 9.4% of the excess healthcare costs of MS. The mean annual excess costs of MS for productivity losses were €13,173 (95% CI 12,325–14,019) per person with MS, predominately from disability pension (79.3%). Conclusions: The socioeconomic burden of MS in Sweden from healthcare consumption and productivity losses was quantified, updating knowledge on the cost structure of the substantial excess costs of MS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines the influence of parental wealth and income on children's college attendance and parents' financing decisions and on whether children graduate from college. We also examine whether parental financing affects the subsequent indebtedness of parents and children. We find that higher levels of parents' wealth and income increase the likelihood that children attend college with financial support relative to not attending college and that parental wealth increases the likelihood that children graduate from college. We show descriptive evidence that parents' financing of their children's college attendance increases parents' subsequent indebtedness but does not reduce their children's indebtedness, including their student loan debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how changes in household-level risk sharing affect the marriage market. We use as our laboratory a German unemployment insurance (UI) reform that tightened means-testing based on the partner's income. The reduced generosity of UI increased the demand for household-level risk sharing, which lowered the attractiveness of individuals exposed to unemployment risk. Because unemployment risk correlates with non-German nationality, our main finding is that the UI reform led to a decrease in intermarriage. The 2004 expansion of the European Union had a comparable effect on intermarriage for the affected nationalities. Both reforms increased marital stability, which is consistent with better selection by couples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]