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The aim of this study was to classify the bilharzial bladder cancer patients after radical cystectomy into several prognostic strata with increasing risk of recurrence. 310 patients through the period 1977-1983 at the National Cancer Institute of Cairo were systematically analysed for 12 variables evaluated after radical cystectomy. Eight factors were shown to have a significant influence on the recurrence-free survival curve after radical cystectomy namely: tumour stage, size, grade and location in the bladder, lymph node involvement, metastasis, renal insufficiency and urinary diversion. Using the proportional hazard model, five factors were significantly related to a lower recurrence-free survival, one major prognostic factor, tumour grade (G2 or G3) (relative risk estimate of 5.5), and four minor prognostic factors (relative risk estimates around 2), namely tumour diameter greater than 5 cm, anterior or trigonal location of the tumour, tumour stage (T3 or T4) and presence of renal insufficiency before surgery. Four prognostic strata have been defined in relation to the presence of these prognostic factors. This classification was validated on a second sample of 122 patients by comparing for each prognostic stratum, the recurrence-free survival curve observed on this sample and the corresponding predicted curve by Cox model. No statistically significant difference could be detected. This classification of bladder cancer patients appears to be adequate for bilharzial bladder cancer patients after radical cystectomy, at least in the conditions they presented and were treated for at the NIC in Cairo.

The aim of the present study is to evaluate the qualities of this model on a new sample of bilharzial bladder cancer patients subjected to radical cystectomy, a so called test sample, different from the learning sample which was used to establish the model