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We compile and analyze all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database of 419 sites and generate an accompanying spatial map. This database includes 290 sites previously reported by the International Heat Flow Commission (IHFC), for which we now standardize measurement and metadata quality. This database also includes 129 new sites, which have not been previously reported by the IHFC. These new sites consist of 88 offshore measurements and 41 onshore measurements, of which 24 are subglacial. We employ machine learning to synthesize these in situ measurements into a gridded geothermal heat flow model that is consistent across both continental and marine areas in and around Greenland. This model has a native horizontal resolution of 55 km. In comparison to five existing Greenland geothermal heat flow models, our model has the lowest mean geothermal heat flow for Greenland onshore areas. Our modeled heat flow in central North Greenland is highly sensitive to whether the NGRIP (North GReenland Ice core Project) elevated heat flow anomaly is included in the training dataset. Our model's most distinctive spatial feature is pronounced low geothermal heat flow (< 40 mW m−2) across the North Atlantic Craton of southern Greenland. Crucially, our model does not show an area of elevated heat flow that might be interpreted as remnant from the Icelandic plume track. Finally, we discuss the substantial influence of paleoclimatic and other corrections on geothermal heat flow measurements in Greenland. The in situ measurement database and gridded heat flow model, as well as other supporting materials, are freely available from the GEUS Dataverse (https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/F9P03L; Colgan and Wansing, 2021).

In many regions considered for deep geological repositories (DGR) for nuclear waste, repeated glaciations could occur within the time frame relevant to their long-term post-closure safety (up to 1 million years; Myr). Ice sheets can affect the long-term safety of a DGR by elevating the hydrostatic pressure at DGR depth, altering groundwater flow and chemistry, influencing the frequency and severity of earthquakes, and causing surface bedrock erosion. Therefore, DGR safety assessments must account for uncertainties in future ice-sheet variability, including the timing, frequency and duration of ice sheets at the DGR site. Using coupled ice sheet-climate models to constrain uncertainties in ice-sheet variability over the next 1 Myr is not feasible due to the long timescales involved and substantial computational requirements. Instead, we propose a simplified methodology to assess future ice-sheet variability at potential DGR sites using reconstructions of past ice sheets and global simulations of future climate change. The simulations are conducted using a conceptual climate model driven by changes in insolation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from anthropogenic emissions. The model is calibrated with 500 000 years (500 kyr) of climate proxy data inferred from deep-ocean sediments. Applying this methodology to the planned Swedish DGR site intended for disposal of spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark suggests that the onset of the next glaciation at the site will not occur until 100 kyr after present, even in the absence of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, anthropogenic emissions have the potential to delay the next glaciation in Forsmark by several hundred thousand additional years. Following the initial glaciation, our results suggest that the frequency and duration of subsequent glaciations in Forsmark resemble those observed over the last 800 kyr. Considering uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions and future climate evolution, a wide range of possible future glacial developments is identified. At the extremes of this uncertainty range – developments with a low likelihood of occurrence but relevant for evaluating the robustness of the DGR – we find that Forsmark could experience ice-sheet coverage for nearly half of the next 1 Myr or remain almost entirely ice-free throughout this period. The proposed methodology is easy to implement and applicable to any potential DGR site with a recorded history of glaciations.

In situ cosmogenic 14C (in situ 14C) in quartz provides a recently developed tool to date exposure of bedrock surfaces of up to ∼ 25 000 years. From outcrops located in east-central Sweden, we tested the accuracy of in situ 14C dating against (i) a relative sea level (RSL) curve constructed from radiocarbon dating of organic material in isolation basins and (ii) the timing of local deglaciation constructed from a clay varve chronology complemented with traditional radiocarbon dating. Five samples of granitoid bedrock were taken along an elevation transect extending southwestwards from the coast of the Baltic Sea near Forsmark. Because these samples derive from bedrock outcrops positioned below the highest postglacial shoreline, they target the timing of progressive landscape emergence above sea level. In contrast, in situ 14C concentrations in an additional five samples taken from granitoid outcrops above the highest postglacial shoreline, located 100 km west of Forsmark, should reflect local deglaciation ages. The 10 in situ 14C measurements provide robust age constraints that, within uncertainties, compare favourably with the RSL curve and the local deglaciation chronology. These data demonstrate the utility of in situ 14C to accurately date ice sheet deglaciation, and durations of postglacial exposure, in regions where cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al routinely return complex exposure results.

The geometries of a catchment constitute the basis for distributed physically based numerical modeling of different geoscientific disciplines. In this paper results from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements, in terms of a 3-D model of total sediment thickness and active layer thickness in a periglacial catchment in western Greenland, are presented. Using the topography, the thickness and distribution of sediments are calculated. Vegetation classification and GPR measurements are used to scale active layer thickness from local measurements to catchment-scale models. Annual maximum active layer thickness varies from 0.3 m in wetlands to 2.0 m in barren areas and areas of exposed bedrock. Maximum sediment thickness is estimated to be 12.3 m in the major valleys of the catchment. A method to correlate surface vegetation with active layer thickness is also presented. By using relatively simple methods, such as probing and vegetation classification, it is possible to upscale local point measurements to catchment-scale models, in areas where the upper subsurface is relatively homogeneous. The resulting spatial model of active layer thickness can be used in combination with the sediment model as a geometrical input to further studies of subsurface mass transport and hydrological flow paths in the periglacial catchment through numerical modeling. The data set is available for all users via the PANGAEA database, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.845258.

Few hydrological studies have been conducted in Greenland, other than on glacial hydrology associated with the ice sheet. Understanding permafrost hydrology and hydroclimatic change and variability, however, provides key information for understanding climate change effects and feedbacks in the Arctic landscape. This paper presents a new, extensive, and detailed hydrological and meteorological open access data set, with high temporal resolution from a 1.56 km2 permafrost catchment, with a lake underlain by a through-talik close to the ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq region, western Greenland. The paper describes the hydrological site investigations and utilized equipment, as well as the data collection and processing. The investigations were performed between 2010 and 2013. The high spatial resolution, within the investigated area, of the data set makes it highly suitable for various detailed hydrological and ecological studies on catchment scale. The data set is available for all users via the PANGAEA database, http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.836178.

We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature (Ts) is 5.5 °C lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 °C higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50 % in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. (iii) El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions. (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean Ts only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.