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Plaggic anthrosols demonstrate the significant and widespread influence of agriculture on the landscape of northern Europe and testify to increased land-use intensity over the last millennium. However, a lack of established chronologic methods to interrogate these soils has hindered research on their formation history, so the timing and process of plaggic anthrosol development remain poorly quantified. Recently, luminescence dating methods have emerged as a tool for tracing the past movement of grains, including within the soil column. This study combines two primary luminescence methods – single-grain feldspar infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) along with post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR) measurements and small-aliquot (or multi-grain) quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – to reconstruct the formation of a plaggic anthrosol at Braakmankamp (eastern Netherlands). Toward this aim, we present a new method to identify well-bleached single grains of feldspar using the ratio of the grain's IRSL and pIRIR signals as a filter. The results provide both methodological and applied archaeological insights. Both small-aliquot quartz OSL and single-grain feldspar pIRIR ages yield reliable ages for plaggen deposits when the new filtering approach is used to remove poorly bleached feldspar grains from the analysis. Single-grain pIRIR feldspar has the added benefit of revealing complex soil formation histories for naturally bioturbated deposits, including those at the base of the plaggen layer. Augmenting this information with conventional quartz OSL dating builds confidence in the geo-chronologic record and allows us to reconstruct the timing and processes of plaggic anthrosol formation in Braakmankamp. According to the luminescence dating results, land clearance occurred around 900–1000 years ago, and accumulation of plaggen material began around 700–800 years ago. The average accumulation rate of plaggen material is estimated at ∼ 1.1 mm yr−1.

On the mainland of northwest Europe generally only remnants of former peat landscapes subsist. Due to the poor preservation of these landscapes, alternative approaches to reconstruct peat initiation and lateral expansion are needed compared to regions with intact peat cover. Here we aim (1) to find explanatory variables within a digital soil mapping approach that allow us to reconstruct the pattern of peat initiation and lateral expansion within (and potentially beyond) peat remnants, and (2) to reconstruct peat initiation ages and lateral expansion for one of the largest bog remnants of the northwest European mainland, Fochteloërveen. Basal radiocarbon dates were obtained from the peat remnant, which formed the basis for subsequent analyses. We investigated the relationship between peat initiation age and three potential covariates: (1) total thickness of organic deposits, (2) elevation of the Pleistocene mineral surface that underlies the organic deposits, and (3) a constructed variable representing groundwater-fed wetness based on elevation of the mineral surface and current hydraulic head. Significant relationships were found with covariates (1) and (3), which were then used for subsequent modelling. Our results indicate simultaneous peat initiation at several loci in Fochteloërveen during the Early Holocene and continuous lateral expansion until 900 cal BP. Lateral expansion accelerated between 5500–3500 cal BP. Our approach is spatially explicit (i.e. results in a map of peat initiation ages), and it allows for a quantitative evaluation of the prediction using the standard deviation and comparison of predictions with validation points. The applied method based on covariate (1) is only useful where remnant peat survived, whereas covariate (3) may ultimately be applied to reconstruct peat initiation ages and lateral peatland expansion beyond the limits of peat remnants.

Humans have substantially altered soil and landscape patterns and properties due to agricultural use, with severe impacts on biodiversity, carbon sequestration and food security. These impacts are difficult to quantify, because we lack data on long-term changes in soils in natural and agricultural settings and available simulation methods are not suitable for reliably predicting future development of soils under projected changes in climate and land management. To help overcome these challenges, we developed the HydroLorica soil–landscape evolution model that simulates soil development by explicitly modeling the spatial water balance as a driver of soil- and landscape-forming processes. We simulated 14 500 years of soil formation under natural conditions for three scenarios of different rainfall inputs. For each scenario we added a 500-year period of intensive agricultural land use, where we introduced tillage erosion and changed vegetation type. Our results show substantial differences between natural soil patterns under different rainfall input. With higher rainfall, soil patterns become more heterogeneous due to increased tree throw and water erosion. Agricultural patterns differ substantially from the natural patterns, with higher variation of soil properties over larger distances and larger correlations with terrain position. In the natural system, rainfall is the dominant factor influencing soil variation, while for agricultural soil patterns landform explains most of the variation simulated. The cultivation of soils thus changed the dominant factors and processes influencing soil formation and thereby also increased predictability of soil patterns. Our study highlights the potential of soil–landscape evolution modeling for simulating past and future developments of soil and landscape patterns. Our results confirm that humans have become the dominant soil-forming factor in agricultural landscapes.

This contribution tests the added value of including landslide path dependency in statistically based landslide susceptibility modelling. A conventional pixel-based landslide susceptibility model was compared with a model that includes landslide path dependency and with a purely path-dependent landslide susceptibility model. To quantify path dependency among landslides, we used a space–time clustering (STC) measure derived from Ripley's space–time K function implemented on a point-based multi-temporal landslide inventory from the Collazzone study area in central Italy. We found that the values of STC obey an exponential-decay curve with a characteristic timescale of 17 years and characteristic spatial scale of 60 m. This exponential space–time decay of the effect of a previous landslide on landslide susceptibility was used as the landslide path-dependency component of susceptibility models. We found that the performance of the conventional landslide susceptibility model improved considerably when adding the effect of landslide path dependency. In fact, even the purely path-dependent landslide susceptibility model turned out to perform better than the conventional landslide susceptibility model. The conventional plus path-dependent and path-dependent landslide susceptibility model and their resulting maps are dynamic and change over time, unlike conventional landslide susceptibility maps.

Reconstructing sediment pathways in fluvial and deltaic systems beyond instrumental records is challenging due to a lack of suitable methods. Here we explore the potential of luminescence methods for such purposes, focusing on bleaching of the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal of quartz sediments in a large fluviodeltaic system across time and space. We approach this by comparing residual doses of sand and silt from the modern Mississippi River channel with estimated residual doses of sand isolated from Late Holocene Mississippi Delta mouth bar and overbank deposits. Further insight is obtained from a comparison of burial ages of paired quartz sand and silt of Mississippi Delta overbank deposits. In contrast to some previous investigations, we find that the bleaching of the OSL signal is at least as likely for finer sediment as for coarser sediment of the meandering Mississippi River and its delta. We attribute this to the differences in light exposure related to transport mode (bedload vs. suspended load). In addition, we find an unexpected spatiotemporal pattern in OSL bleaching of mouth bar sand deposits. We suggest this may be caused by changes in upstream pathways of the meandering channel belt(s) within the alluvial valley or by distributary channel and coastal dynamics within the delta. Our study demonstrates that the degree of OSL signal bleaching of sand in a large delta can be highly time- and/or space-dependent. Silt is shown to be generally sufficiently bleached in both the modern Mississippi River and associated paleo-deposits regardless of age, and silt may therefore provide a viable option for obtaining OSL chronologies in megadeltas. Our work contributes to initiatives to use luminescence signals to fingerprint sediment pathways within river channel networks and their deltas and also helps inform luminescence dating approaches in fluviodeltaic environments.

Influenza epidemics annually cause substantial morbidity and mortality. For this reason, vaccination is offered yearly to persons with an elevated risk for complications. Assessments of the impact of vaccination are, however, hampered by year-to-year variation in epidemic size and vaccine effectiveness.We estimate the impact of the current vaccination programme comparing simulations with vaccination to counterfactual simulations without vaccination. The simulations rely on an age- and risk-structured transmission model that tracks the build-up and loss of immunity over successive seasons, and that allows the vaccine match to vary between seasons. The model parameters are estimated with a particle Monte Carlo method and approximate Bayesian computation, using epidemiological data on vaccine effectiveness and epidemic size in the Netherlands over a period of 11 years.The number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths vary greatly between years because waning of immunity and vaccine match may differ every season, which is in line with observed variation in influenza epidemic sizes. At an overall coverage of 21%, vaccination has averted on average 13% (7.2–19%, 95% range) of infections, 24% (16–36%) of hospitalisations, and 35% (16–50%) of deaths. This suggests that vaccination is mainly effective in protecting vaccinees from infection rather than reducing transmission. As the Dutch population continues to grow and age, the vaccination programme is projected (up to 2025) to gain in impact, despite a decreasing infection attack rate. Keywords: Influenza virus, Transmission model, Infection attack rate, Vaccine effectiveness, Morbidity, Mortality

Seasonal influenza causes a high disease burden. Many influenza vaccination programmes target the elderly and persons at high risk of complications. Some countries have recommended or even implemented a paediatric vaccination programme. Such a programme is expected to reduce influenza transmission in the population, offering direct protection to the vaccinated children and indirect protection to the elderly.We study the impact of a child vaccination programme with an age- and risk-structured transmission model, calibrated to data of 11 influenza seasons in the Netherlands. The model tracks the build-up of immunes and susceptibles in each age cohort over time, and it allows for seasonal variation in vaccine match and antigenic drift. Different vaccination strategies are evaluated for three target age groups (2–3, 2–12 and 2–16 year olds) over the full range of vaccination coverages (0–100%).The results show that the paediatric vaccination programme has only a limited impact on the elderly age groups, which account for most influenza morbidity and mortality. This is due to two notable changes in infection dynamics. First, an age shift is observed: influenza infections are reduced in vaccinated children, but are increased in young adults with limited natural immunity after years of vaccination. These young adults assume the role of driving the epidemic. Second, a year with low influenza activity can be followed by a large epidemic due to build-up of susceptibles. This variation of the infection attack rate increases with increasing vaccination coverage.The increased variability in the infection attack rate implies that health care facilities should be prepared for rare but larger peaks in influenza patients. Moreover, vaccinating the group with the highest transmission potential, results in a larger dependency on a secure vaccine supply. These arguments should be taken into account in the decision to introduce mass vaccination of school-aged children against influenza. Keywords: Influenza virus, Transmission model, Infection attack rate, Vaccination, Children

River channel patterns may alter due to changes in hydrological regime related to changes in climate and/or land cover. Such changes are well documented for transitions between meandering and braiding rivers, whereas channel pattern changes between laterally stable and meandering rivers are poorly documented and understood. We hypothesize that many low-energy meandering rivers had relatively low peak discharges and were laterally stable during most of the Holocene, when climate was relatively stable and human impact was limited. Our objectives in this work are to identify a Late Holocene channel pattern change for the low-energy Overijsselse Vecht river, to develop and apply a novel methodology to reconstruct discharge as a function of time following a stochastic approach, and to relate this channel pattern change to reconstructed hydrological changes. We established that the Overijsselse Vecht was laterally virtually stable throughout the Holocene until the Late Middle Ages, after which large meanders formed at lateral migration rates of about 2 m yr−1. The lateral stability before the Late Middle Ages was constrained using a combination of coring information, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), radiocarbon (14C) dating, and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. We quantified bankfull palaeodischarge as a function of time based on channel dimensions that were reconstructed from the scroll bar sequence and channel cut-offs using coring information and GPR data, combined with chronological constraints from historical maps and OSL dating. We found that the bankfull discharge was significantly greater during the meandering phase compared to the laterally stable phase. Empirical channel and bar pattern models showed that this increase can explain the channel pattern change. The bankfull discharge increase likely reflects climate changes related to the Little Ice Age and/or land use changes in the catchment, in particular as a result of peat reclamation and exploitation.

Identifying lateral migration rates of meandering rivers is relevant both for fluvial geomorphology and to support river management. Lateral migration rates for contemporary meandering systems are often reconstructed based on sequential remote-sensing images or historical maps; however, the time frame for which these sources are available is limited and hence likely to represent fluvial systems subjected to human influence. Here, we propose to use scroll bar sequences as an archive to look further back in time using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sand-sized quartz grains. We develop a modelling procedure for the joint Bayesian analysis of (OSL) dating results and historical map data. The procedure is applied to two meanders from the Overijsselse Vecht, a medium-sized sand-bed river in the Netherlands. We obtained nine samples for OSL dating from scroll bars and combined OSL dating results with historical map data for the period 1720–1901 CE (Common Era). The procedure we propose here incorporates the strengths of both data types for reconstructing fluvial morphodynamics over longer time frames. Using an iterative modelling approach, we translate spatial uncertainty of historical maps into temporal uncertainty of channel position required for Bayesian deposition modelling. Our results indicate that meander formation in the Overijsselse Vecht system started around 1400 CE, and lateral migration rates were on average 2.6 and 0.9 m yr−1 for the two investigated bends, until river channelization around 1900 CE.

The beach-ridge sequence of the Usumacinta–Grijalva delta borders a 300 km long section of the southern Gulf of Mexico coast. With around 500 beach ridges formed in the last 6500 years, the sequence is unsurpassed in the world in terms of numbers of individual ridges preserved, continuity of the record, and temporal resolution. We mapped and dated the most extensively accreted part of the sequence, linking six phases of accretion to river mouth reconfigurations and constraining their ages with 14C and OSL dating. The geomorphological and sedimentological reconstruction relied on lidar data, coring transects, GPR measurements, grain-size analyses, and chemical fingerprinting of volcanic glass and pumice encountered within the beach and dune deposits. We demonstrate that the beach-ridge complex was formed under ample long-term fluvial sediment supply and shorter-term wave- and aeolian-modulated sediment reworking. The abundance of fluvially supplied sand is explained by the presence of easily weatherable Los Chocoyos ignimbrites from the ca. 84 ka eruption of the Atitlán volcano (Guatemala) in the catchment of the Usumacinta River. Autocyclic processes seem responsible for the formation of ridge–swale couplets. Fluctuations in their periodicity (ranging from 6–19 years) are governed by progradation rate, and are therefore not indicative of sea level fluctuations or variability in storm activity. The fine sandy beach ridges are mainly swash built. Ridge elevation, however, is strongly influenced by aeolian accretion during the time the ridge is located next to the beach. Beach-ridge elevation is negatively correlated with progradation rate, which we relate to the variability in sediment supply to the coastal zone, reflecting decadal-scale precipitation changes within the river catchment. In the southern Mexican delta plain, the coastal beach ridges therefore appear to be excellent recorders of hinterland precipitation.

In this forum paper we discuss how soil scientists can help to reach the recently adopted UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the most effective manner. Soil science, as a land-related discipline, has important links to several of the SDGs, which are demonstrated through the functions of soils and the ecosystem services that are linked to those functions (see graphical abstract in the Supplement). We explore and discuss how soil scientists can rise to the challenge both internally, in terms of our procedures and practices, and externally, in terms of our relations with colleague scientists in other disciplines, diverse groups of stakeholders and the policy arena. To meet these goals we recommend the following steps to be taken by the soil science community as a whole: (i) embrace the UN SDGs, as they provide a platform that allows soil science to demonstrate its relevance for realizing a sustainable society by 2030; (ii) show the specific value of soil science: research should explicitly show how using modern soil information can improve the results of inter- and transdisciplinary studies on SDGs related to food security, water scarcity, climate change, biodiversity loss and health threats; (iii) take leadership in overarching system analysis of ecosystems, as soils and soil scientists have an integrated nature and this places soil scientists in a unique position; (iii) raise awareness of soil organic matter as a key attribute of soils to illustrate its importance for soil functions and ecosystem services; (iv) improve the transfer of knowledge through knowledge brokers with a soil background; (v) start at the basis: educational programmes are needed at all levels, starting in primary schools, and emphasizing practical, down-to-earth examples; (vi) facilitate communication with the policy arena by framing research in terms that resonate with politicians in terms of the policy cycle or by considering drivers, pressures and responses affecting impacts of land use change; and finally (vii) all this is only possible if researchers, with soil scientists in the front lines, look over the hedge towards other disciplines, to the world at large and to the policy arena, reaching over to listen first, as a basis for genuine collaboration.

The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal from fluvial sediment often contains a remnant from the previous deposition cycle, leading to a partially bleached equivalent-dose distribution. Although identification of the burial dose is of primary concern, the degree of bleaching could potentially provide insights into sediment transport processes. However, comparison of bleaching between samples is complicated by sample-to-sample variation in aliquot size and luminescence sensitivity. Here we begin development of an age model to account for these effects. With measurement data from multi-grain aliquots, we use Bayesian computational statistics to estimate the burial dose and bleaching parameters of the single-grain dose distribution. We apply the model to 46 samples taken from fluvial sediment of Rhine branches in the Netherlands, and compare the results with environmental predictor variables (depositional environment, texture, sample depth, depth relative to mean water level, dose rate). Although obvious correlations with predictor variables are absent, there is some suggestion that the best-bleached samples are found close to the modern mean water level, and that the extent of bleaching has changed over the recent past. We hypothesise that sediment deposited near the transition of channel to overbank deposits receives the most sunlight exposure, due to local reworking after deposition. However, nearly all samples are inferred to have at least some well-bleached grains, suggesting that bleaching also occurs during fluvial transport.

Knowledge on the transmission tree of an epidemic can provide valuable insights into disease dynamics. The transmission tree can be reconstructed by analysing either detailed epidemiological data (e.g. contact tracing) or, if sufficient genetic diversity accumulates over the course of the epidemic, genetic data of the pathogen. We present a likelihood-based framework to integrate these two data types, estimating probabilities of infection by taking weighted averages over the set of possible transmission trees. We test the approach by applying it to temporal, geographical and genetic data on the 241 poultry farms infected in an epidemic of avian influenza A (H7N7) in The Netherlands in 2003. We show that the combined approach estimates the transmission tree with higher correctness and resolution than analyses based on genetic or epidemiological data alone. Furthermore, the estimated tree reveals the relative infectiousness of farms of different types and sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid advances have recently been made at SRS Daresbury in optical-detection methods for both micro-imaging x-ray absorption spectroscopy (ODXAS, ODEXAFS), and in the development of volume-integrated synchrotron-laser pump-probe XAS methods (PP-ODXAS). The purpose of the present work is to describe the latest developments that enable these two methods to be coupled, providing micro-imaging of both the transient and CW synchrotron-laser interactions. Examples are provided whereby the distribution of both radiative and non-radiative centres in heterogeneous silicate samples can be mapped and directly correlated with the chemistry and structure of the host lattice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models of transmission have become invaluable management tools in planning for the control of emerging infectious diseases. A key variable in such models is the reproductive number R. For new emerging infectious diseases, the value of the reproductive number can only be inferred indirectly from the observed exponential epidemic growth rate r. Such inference is ambiguous as several different equations exist that relate the reproductive number to the growth rate, and it is unclear which of these equations might apply to a new infection. Here, we show that these different equations differ only with respect to their assumed shape of the generation interval distribution. Therefore, the shape of the generation interval distribution determines which equation is appropriate for inferring the reproductive number from the observed growth rate. We show that by assuming all generation intervals to be equal to the mean, we obtain an upper bound to the range of possible values that the reproductive number may attain for a given growth rate. Furthermore, we show that by taking the generation interval distribution equal to the observed distribution, it is possible to obtain an empirical estimate of the reproductive number. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers attempted to estimate the number of averted and avertible outcomes due to vaccination campaigns to quantify public health impact. However, the estimands used in these analyses have not been previously formalized. It is also unclear how these analyses relate to the broader framework of direct, indirect, total, and overall causal effects under interference. Here, using potential outcome notation, we adjust the direct and overall effects to accommodate analyses of averted and avertible outcomes. We use this framework to interrogate the commonly held assumption that vaccine-averted outcomes via direct impact among vaccinated individuals (or vaccine-avertible outcomes via direct impact among unvaccinated individuals) is a lower bound on vaccine-averted (or -avertible) outcomes overall. To do so, we describe a susceptible-infected-recovered-death model stratified by vaccination status. When vaccine efficacies wane, the lower bound fails for vaccine-avertible outcomes. When transmission or fatality parameters increase over time, the lower bound fails for both vaccine-averted and -avertible outcomes. Only in the simplest scenario where vaccine efficacies, transmission, and fatality parameters are constant over time, outcomes averted via direct impact among vaccinated individuals (or outcomes avertible via direct impact among unvaccinated individuals) is a lower bound on overall impact. In conclusion, the lower bound can fail under common violations to assumptions on time-invariant vaccine efficacy, pathogen properties, or behavioral parameters. In real data analyses, estimating what seems like a lower bound on overall impact through estimating direct impact may be inadvisable without examining the directions of indirect effects., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest: C.B. reports consulting income from Janssen Pharmaceuticals. M.L. serves as Senior Advisor to the US CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. This paper is written in his academic capacity and may not represent the views of the CDC or any government agency., (Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Objectives Men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionally affected by HIV in the Netherlands. Partner notification (PN) is an important element in controlling the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV. We investigated the effects of improving PN on the transmission of HIV and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) among MSM in the Netherlands. Methods We developed an agent-based model that describes the transmission of HIV and NG among MSM. In the baseline scenario, 14.3% and 29.8% of casual and steady partners of the index case get notified and tested for HIV/STI after 3 weeks (percentage notified and tested (PNT)). We examined the following scenarios: (1) increase PNT to 41% for both partner types; (2) decrease the time between the index and the partners tested to 1 week and (3) combine scenarios 1 and 2. Effects are expressed as cumulative change from the baseline simulation over 15 years. Results Increasing PNT could lead to a decrease in gonorrhoea cases of 45% (IQR 39.9% to 49.9%), with an increase in the number of HIV/STI tests of 4.4% (IQR 1.6% to 7.3%), but no change in HIV infections (-5.4%; IQR -21% to 7.9%). Decreasing the time between tests could lead to a change in new NG infections of -14.2% (IQR -17.2% to -10%), no change in HIV infections (8.2%; IQR -1.3% to 20%) or in the number of HIV/STI tests performed (-0.4%; IQR -1.5 to 0.6%). Scenario 3 led to a change in NG infections of -56.8% (IQR -63.8% to -47.4%), no change in HIV infections (11.5%; IQR -11.1% to 33.9%) or in the number of HIV/STI tests (-0.5%; IQR: -4.9% to 4.3%). Conclusions Increasing the percentage of sexual partners notified and tested for HIV/STI may have only a small effect on HIV but could reduce the number of new NG infections substantially. However, it could lead to an increase in the number of HIV/STI tests performed., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2025. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ Group.)

The recent expansion of mpox in Africa is characterized by a dramatic increase in zoonotic transmission (clade Ia) and the emergence of a new clade Ib that is transmitted from human to human by close contact. Clade Ia does not pose a threat in areas without zoonotic reservoirs. But clade Ib may spread widely, as did clade IIb which has spread globally since 2022 among men who have sex with men. It is not clear whether controlling clade Ib will be more difficult than clade IIb. The population at risk potentially counts 100 million but only a million vaccine doses are expected in the next year. Surveillance is needed with exhaustive case detection, polymerase chain reaction confirmation, clade determination, and about severe illness. Such data is needed to identify routes of transmission and core transmitters, such as sex workers. Health care workers are vaccinated to ensure their protection, but this will not curb mpox transmission. With the recent inequitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in mind, it is a global responsibility to ensure that low-income nations in the mpox epicenter have meaningful access to vaccines. Vaccination serves not only to reduce mortality in children but limit the risk of future mpox variants emerging that may spread in human populations globally., Competing Interests: Declarations of competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)