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Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. © 2021 The Author(s)

Time is a fundamental element of negotiation, often as a condition or situation faced by the negotiator (e.g. "I am under time pressure - I must sell my car today because I am leaving town tonight!"). Time can be strategic, used by negotiators to achieve an objective, typically an effort to evoke compliance, for example the exploding offer ("The job offer is only good until tomorrow at noon"). Time can affect many aspects of negotiation including basic negotiation processes and outcomes, choice of tactics, and basic psychological processes of emotion, cognition, and motivation. Time pressure often intensifies the prevailing motive, producing greater cooperation (e.g. concession making) and sometimes greater contention and disagreement. Some strategies of negotiation only occur with time (e.g. the black-hat/white-hat sequence), which suggests that 'timing' (knowing when to do something for an effect) is an important skill in negotiation. There are many aspects of time in negotiation that are ripe for empirical investigation.

AimTo analyse the peripheral extent of choroidal circulation using ultra-widefield (UWF) indocyanine green angiography (ICGA) in healthy eyes.MethodsUWF ICGA images of 55 eyes of 36 healthy subjects were captured using the Optos California (Optos, Dunfermline, United Kingdom) in this prospective observational study. Images were analysed to locate the peripheral extent of the visible choroidal circulation, and the boundary was marked in ImageJ (v1.52). Each pixel annotated as the border of the choroidal circulation was projected individually to its anatomically correct location on the three-dimensional model eye, and spherical trigonometry was applied (using the Optos software) to calculate its respective radial distance from the centre of the optic disc in metric units (corrected by stereographic projection) for each quadrant.ResultsThe mean area of the peripheral extent was estimated to be 893.2 mm2 (95% CI: 844.2 to 942.3 mm2). The mean distance (range) of this boundary from optic nerve centre was 18.22 mm (95% CI: 14.0 to 23.14 mm). Multiple regression analysis with age, gender, axial length or ethnicity showed no relationship. There was excellent inter-grader reproducibility, with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.99, ppConclusionsThe peripheral choroidal boundary may be defined using UWF ICGA. Knowledge of the normal extent and its variability is essential to understand the impact of disease on the choroidal vasculature.

A family of complexes were made by combining MnX2·nH2O (X = Cl, Br) with 2-amino-3-methylpyridine (3MAP), 2-amino-5-methylpyridine (5MAP) or 2-amino-5-iodopyridine (5IAP) in aqueous acidic conditions. The resulting complexes were (3MAPH)2Cl2.MnCl2(H2O)2 (1), (3MAPH)2Br2.MnBr2(H2O)2 (2), (5IAPH)8 [Mn4Cl10(H2O)8] Cl6 (3) and (5MAPH)2 MnBr4 (4). Complexes 1–3 crystalize in monoclinic space groups (1 = P21/c, 2&3 = P21/n) with chains formed by halide bridged manganese ions. Compound 4 crystalizes in the triclinic space group P-1 with a manganese halide ladder structure formed via short Br…Br contacts. Complexes 1, 2 and 4 were studied through variable temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements, all of which exhibited weak antiferromagnetic interactions (J = ~ – 0.45 to –0.05 K).

Metamotivation research suggests that people may be able to modulate their motivational states strategically to secure desired outcomes (Scholer & Miele, 2016). To regulate one's motivational states effectively, one must at minimum understand (a) which states are more or less beneficial for a given task and (b) how to instantiate these states. In the current article, we examine to what extent people understand the self-regulatory benefits of high-level versus low-level construal (i.e., motivational orientations toward abstract and essential vs. concrete and idiosyncratic features). Seven experiments revealed that participants can distinguish tasks that entail high-level versus low-level construal. Further, participants recognized the usefulness of preparatory exercises with which to instantiate high-level versus low-level construal for task performance, and this knowledge predicted behavioral choices. This research highlights novel insights that the metamotivational approach offers to research on construal level theory and, more broadly, to the study of self-regulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

A one-pot microwave synthesis of Fe 0.65 Pt 0.35 @Co allows systematic growth of the soft-magnet Co shell (0.6 nm to 2.7 nm thick) around the hard-magnet Fe 0.65 Pt 0.35 core (5 nm in diameter). Controlled growth leads to a four-fold enhancement in energy product of the core-shell assembly as compared to the energy product of bare Fe 0.65 Pt 0.35 cores. The simultaneous enhancement of coercivity and saturation moment reflects the onset of theoretically predicted exchange spring behavior. The demonstration of nanoscale exchange-spring magnets will result in improved high-performance magnet design for energy applications.

Although dual-process or divided-mind models of self-control dominate the literature, they suffer from empirical and conceptual challenges. We propose an alternative approach, suggesting that self-control can be characterized by a fragmented part versus integrated whole dynamic. Whereas responses to events derived from fragmented parts of the mind undermine self-control, responses to events derived from integrated wholes enhance self-control. We review empirical evidence from psychology and related disciplines that support this model. We, moreover, discuss the implications of this work for psychology, neuroscience, economics, and philosophy. In particular, we highlight how this model addresses many of the conceptual and empirical short-comings of divided-mind models. We suggest that understanding self-control as the interplay between fragmented parts versus integrated wholes, moreover, provides novel insights and testable new hypotheses.

Virtual reality is spreading rapidly as an emerging communication tool in organizations. The present research examines when and why leaders might prefer interacting with their subordinates virtually, via computer avatars (graphical computer representations of humans), rather than through face-to-face interactions. We examine this question in the context of monitoring and seek to understand the underlying psychology that drives leaders’ preference for interacting via avatars. Across two experiments, we tested our predictions that (1) contexts that require frequent monitoring increase leaders' preference for interacting via avatars, and (2) this preference is driven by concerns about negative social evaluation. Results supported our predictions, indicating that contexts requiring frequent monitoring increase leaders' preference for interacting via avatars (Experiment 1), and this effect was due to increased concerns about negative social evaluation (Experiment2). We also explored the role of personality on this effect (Experiment 2). Theoretical implications for the psychology of leadership in the digital era and the adoption of novel technologies are discussed.

Background Increasing computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) use in the emergency department (ED) over the last decade is well documented. Objective Our aim was to assess the impact of an electronic decision support and risk education system (DS-RES) on CT/MRI use. Methods We conducted an age-, sex-, and risk-adjusted analysis of CT/MRI use and ED and inpatient rebound rates before and after implementation in 2009 at a Kaiser Permanente Northwest medical center. Results In the pre period, a total of 12,531 encounters occurred for unique patients within each of 10 chief complaint categories. In the post period, 16,864 total encounters occurred for unique patients within each chief complaint category, 11.4% of patients were at low risk and 24.8% and 63.8% were at medium and high risk, respectively. Adjusted CT/MRI use increased 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0%–2.3%) between pre and post periods. Among low-risk and medium-risk patients, CT/MRI use decreased by 5.0% (95% CI 2.5%–7.5%) and 10.4% (95% CI 7.9%–12.8%). Among patients at high risk, CT/MRI use increased by 3.9% (95% CI 2.5%–5.3%). The proportion of patients with a 3- or 7-day rebound to the ED or an inpatient facility decreased between pre and post periods by 1.4% (95% CI 0.7%–2.2%) and 0.7% (95% CI 0.2%–1.5%). Conclusions DS-RES implementation did not decrease overall CT/MRI rates, but it was associated with a shift in use toward high-risk patients and less patient rebound to the ED and hospital. Further research is required to identify mechanisms underlying imaging utilization shifts.

Research indicates that inducing high-level construal (processing that highlights invariant, essential features) relative to low-level construal (processing that highlights idiosyncratic, peripheral features) promotes self-control (Fujita & Carnevale, 2012). In the present work, we investigate to what extent people recognize the self-control benefits of high-level construal, and explore the consequences of this knowledge. Studies 1 and 2 provide initial evidence that individuals are aware that high-level relative to low-level construal promotes self-control in the dieting domain. Studies 3 and 4 find that individual differences in this knowledge predict self-control success outcomes (i.e., body mass index) among those who are motivated by dieting goals. Examining academics as a domain of self-control, Study 5 demonstrates that those with higher knowledge of construal level's impact on self-control earned higher end-of-semester grades to the extent that they were motivated to do well academically. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

Research indicates that words activate high-level construal (processing that highlights central, goal-relevant features of events) whereas pictures activate low-level construal (processing that highlights idiosyncratic, peripheral features). We examine how these differences between words and pictures impact evaluative associations. Research has demonstrated that high-level relative to low-level construal promotes evaluative associations that enhance self-control, promoting associations that link smaller proximal rewards (temptations) with negativity and larger-distal rewards (goals) with positivity. Examining dieting as a self-control conflict, we find that words promote sensitivity to goal-relevant dimension of stimuli (i.e., health) while pictures promote sensitivity to temptation-relevant dimension of stimuli (i.e., taste) among those concerned with dieting in a single-category implicit association test (SC-IAT). An additional study finds that changing the presentation format of the IAT from pictures to words increases the tendency to associate temptations (i.e., desserts) with negativity among those concerned with dieting. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

If your self-worth depends on success, you may be in for a fall. To feel good about yourself, think less about you and more about others

Low- and high-pitched sounds are perceptually associated with low and high visuospatial elevations, respectively. The spatial properties of this association are not well understood. Here we report two experiments that investigated whether low and high tones can be used as spatial cues to upright for self-orientation and identified the spatial frame(s) of reference used in perceptually binding auditory pitch to visuospatial ‘up’ and ‘down’. In experiment 1, participants’ perceptual upright (PU) was measured while lying on their right side with and without high- and low-pitched sounds played through speakers above their left ear and below their right ear. The sounds were ineffective in moving the perceived upright from a direction intermediate between the body and gravity towards the direction indicated by the sounds. In experiment 2, we measured the biasing effects of ascending and descending tones played through headphones on ambiguous vertical or horizontal visual motion created by combining gratings drifting in opposite directions while participants either sat upright or laid on their right side. Ascending and descending tones biased the interpretation of ambiguous motion along both the gravitational vertical and the long-axis of the body with the strongest effect along the body axis. The combination of these two effects showed that axis of maximum effect of sound corresponded approximately to the direction of the perceptual upright, compatible with the idea that ‘high’ and ‘low’ sounds are defined along this axis.

This chapter provides a conceptual analysis of the relationship between self-control and ego depletion. We first discuss self-control—the prioritization of larger distal over smaller proximal outcomes—and attempt to compare and contrast it to related terms such as self-regulation, executive function, delay of gratification, and inhibition. We then critically evaluate to what extent acts of self-control represent necessary and/or sufficient conditions to produce states of ego depletion—the apparent lack of willingness or ability to regulate one's thoughts, feelings, and behavior. This analysis leads to the surprising conclusion that acts of self-control are neither necessary nor sufficient to produce states of ego depletion. We discuss the implications of these conclusions for our understanding of self-control and highlight several new directions of research.

The position of gaze (eye plus head position) relative to body is known to alter the perceived locations of sensory targets. This effect suggests that perceptual space is at least partially coded in a gaze-centered reference frame. However, the direction of the effects reported has not been consistent. Here, we investigate the cause of a discrepancy between reported directions of shift in tactile localization related to head position. We demonstrate that head eccentricity can cause errors in touch localization in either the same or opposite direction as the head is turned depending on the procedure used. When head position is held eccentric during both the presentation of a touch and the response, there is a shift in the direction opposite to the head. When the head is returned to center before reporting, the shift is in the same direction as head eccentricity. We rule out a number of possible explanations for the difference and conclude that when the head is moved between a touch and response the touch is coded in a predominantly gaze-centered reference frame, whereas when the head remains stationary a predominantly body-centered reference frame is used. The mechanism underlying these displacements in perceived location is proposed to involve an underestimated gaze signal. We propose a model demonstrating how this single neural error could cause localization errors in either direction depending on whether the gaze or body midline is used as a reference. This model may be useful in explaining gaze-related localization errors in other modalities.

Many goals that people pursue are distal in that they cannot be attained in the here and now but rather must be achieved through action across varied social contexts over time. Self-control requires people to make decisions consistent with distal goals when tempted by more immediate rewards. Inspired by construal-level theory, we propose and review evidence that the way in which people subjectively represent, or construe, events systematically influences these decisions. We suggest that high-level construal (the use of cognitive abstraction to extract the essential and goal-relevant features common across a class of events), relative to low-level construal (the process of highlighting the incidental and idiosyncratic features that render a particular event unique), promotes self-control. We discuss implications for future research.