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In 1961, Dungey suggested that magnetic reconnection occurs due to the solar-terrestrial interaction. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is thought to merge with Earth’s geomagnetic field (GMF). After the reconnection process the newly formed magnetic flux tube, consisting of both the IMF and GMF, moves anti-sunward. Poleward-moving auroral forms (PMAFs) are believed to be the ionospheric signatures of this process, which transfers magnetic flux from the dayside to the nightside. This paper looks at the connection between the solar wind speed and the motion of the PMAF as it moves from the auroral oval, anti-sunward, into the polar cap. PMAFs are identified using both the meridian scanning photometer (MSP) and colored all-sky camera (ASC). Once the PMAFs are identified, the PMAF-SLOPE, vα (units of degrees per time) and the angle (αPMAF) the PMAF makes with the horizontal (Time axis), in the MSP plot are calculated. These values (vα and αPMAF) are individually plotted against the vx-component of the solar wind speed and the flow speed (total solar wind speed). The plots generate linear a relationship between PMAF-SLOPEs, vα, [or PMAF angles (αPMAF)], and the vx-component of the solar wind speed (or the flow speed). A total of 57 PMAF events from 8 different days were associated with solar wind speeds (vx-component) ranging from 344 to 679 km/s. The first linear plot, between the PMAF-SLOPE and solar wind speed (vx-component), shows a high correlation: rvα=0.944. A second linear plot, between αPMAF and the solar wind speed (vx-component) shows a very high correlation: rαPMAF=0.973. The conclusions obtained from this statistical study are: 1) both the PMAF-SLOPE vα and αPMAF are highly correlated to the vx-component of the solar wind, increasing when vx increases and vice versa, 2) PMAFs must be connected to both the IMF and GMF and are dragged anti-sunward, mostly by the vx-component of the solar wind, and 3) PMAFs are indeed the ionospheric footprints of a newly formed magnetic flux tube, due to dayside magnetic reconnection, being transferred from the dayside to nightside.

Purpose This paper describes the data collection and management methods for the Cancer Prevention Study-3 (CPS-3) Accelerometry Substudy, a nested cohort of device-based physical activity and sedentary time data.Participants US-based CPS-3 participants (initially enrolled 2006–2013) who completed the 2018 follow-up survey and had a valid email address were invited to the Accelerometry Substudy (n=109 780). Among the 23 111 participants who registered and were shipped an ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometer, 21 219 participants returned the device with a complete wear log (91.8%) and 20 950 (90.6%) provided at least three adherent days of data (eg, days with at least 10 hours of wear).Findings to date Participants with ≥3 adherent days were predominantly female (n=16 187, 77.3%), non-Latino white (n=17 977, 85.8%) and had an average age of 58 years (SD=9.8). The median daily wear time was 15.3 hours, which did not vary considerably by wear day. The median time spent in moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity was 29 min/day (IQR=36), and the median time in vigorous physical activity was 3 min/day (IQR=13). Participants were sedentary for 9.4 hours (564 min, IQR=171 min) and accumulated a median of 6474 steps per day (IQR=5348).Future plans The full CPS-3 cohort will be linked with the National Death Index and state cancer registries biennially. Participants will be sent triennial surveys for the next two decades. Future analyses within the CPS-3 Accelerometry Substudy more specifically aim to identify relationships between physical activity, sedentary time and health outcomes, primarily cancer incidence, survival and survivorship.

Abstract Changing climate has driven shifts in species phenology, influencing a range of ecological interactions from plant–pollinator to consumer–resource. Phenological changes in host–parasite systems have implications for pathogen transmission dynamics. The seasonal timing, or phenology, of peak larval and nymphal tick abundance is an important driver of tick‐borne pathogen prevalence through its effect on cohort‐to‐cohort transmission. Tick phenology is tightly linked to climatic factors such as temperature and humidity. Thus, variation in climate within and across regions could lead to differences in phenological patterns. These differences may explain regional variation in tick‐borne pathogen prevalence of the Lyme disease‐causing Borrelia bacteria in vector populations in the United States. For example, one factor thought to contribute to high Lyme disease prevalence in ticks in the eastern United States is the asynchronous phenology of ticks there, where potentially infected nymphal ticks emerge earlier in the season than uninfected larval ticks. This allows the infected nymphal ticks to transmit the pathogen to hosts that are subsequently fed upon by the next generation of larval ticks. In contrast, in the western United States where Lyme disease prevalence is generally much lower, tick phenology is thought to be more synchronous with uninfected larvae emerging slightly before, or at the same time as, potentially infected nymphs, reducing horizontal transmission potential. Sampling larval and nymphal ticks, and their host‐feeding phenology, both across large spatial gradients and through time, is challenging, which hampers attempts to conduct detailed studies of phenology to link it with pathogen prevalence. In this study, we demonstrate through intensive within‐season sampling that the relative abundance and seasonality of larval and nymphal ticks are highly variable along a latitudinal gradient and likely reflect the variable climate in the far western United States with potential consequences for pathogen transmission. We find that feeding patterns were variable and synchronous feeding of juvenile ticks on key blood meal hosts was associated with mean temperature. By characterizing within‐season phenological patterns of the Lyme disease vector throughout a climatically heterogeneous region, we can begin to identify areas with high potential for tick‐borne disease risk and underlying mechanisms at a finer scale.

ABSTRACT: TNG908 is a clinical stage PRMT5 inhibitor with an MTA-cooperative binding mechanism designed to leverage the synthetic lethal interaction between PRMT5 inhibition and MTAP deletion. MTAP deletion occurs in 10–15 % of all human cancer representing multiple histologies. MTA is a negative regulator of PRMT5 that accumulates as a result of MTAP deletion. In this study, we demonstrate that TNG908 selectively binds the PRMT5·MTA complex driving selective inhibition of PRMT5 in MTAP-null cancers, a mechanism that creates a large therapeutic index relative to first generation PRMT5 inhibitors that have alternative binding mechanisms that are not tumor-selective. Strong preclinical activity in multiple MTAP-deleted xenograft models, as well as demonstrated brain penetrance in preclinical models, support the potential for histology-agnostic clinical development of TNG908 in MTAP-deleted solid tumors, including CNS malignancies. TNG908 is being tested clinically in patients with MTAP-deleted tumors, including glioblastoma, in a Phase I/II clinical trial (NCT05275478).

Abstract Background Physical activity and emotional self-management has the potential to enhance health-related quality of life (HRQoL), but few people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have access to resources and support. The Kidney BEAM trial aims to evaluate whether an evidence-based physical activity and emotional wellbeing self-management programme (Kidney BEAM) leads to improvements in HRQoL in people with CKD. Methods This was a prospective, multicentre, randomised waitlist-controlled trial, with health economic analysis and nested qualitative studies. In total, three hundred and four adults with established CKD were recruited from 11 UK kidney units. Participants were randomly assigned to the intervention (Kidney BEAM) or a wait list control group (1:1). The primary outcome was the between-group difference in Kidney Disease Quality of Life (KDQoL) mental component summary score (MCS) at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes included the KDQoL physical component summary score, kidney-specific scores, fatigue, life participation, depression and anxiety, physical function, clinical chemistry, healthcare utilisation and harms. All outcomes were measured at baseline and 12 weeks, with long-term HRQoL and adherence also collected at six months follow-up. A nested qualitative study explored experience and impact of using Kidney BEAM. Results 340 participants were randomised to Kidney BEAM (n = 173) and waiting list (n = 167) groups. There were 96 (55%) and 89 (53%) males in the intervention and waiting list groups respectively, and the mean (SD) age was 53 (14) years in both groups. Ethnicity, body mass, CKD stage, and history of diabetes and hypertension were comparable across groups. The mean (SD) of the MCS was similar in both groups, 44.7 (10.8) and 45.9 (10.6) in the intervention and waiting list groups respectively. Conclusion Results from this trial will establish whether the Kidney BEAM self management programme is a cost-effective method of enhancing mental and physical wellbeing of people with CKD. Trial Registration NCT04872933. Registered 5th May 2021.

In this longitudinal study of an incident (new infections) and chronic (asymptomatic infections) cohort of Plasmodium falciparum infection in children in Burkina Faso, the authors show higher gametocyte production and mosquito infectivity in chronic infections.

Amphibians are declining globally, and the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes the disease chytridiomycosis, has been the culprit in many of these declines. In the Mediterranean region of Baja California, Mexico—a biodiversity hotspot—native amphibians are also in decline, and Bd is present. To determine which factors best predict Bd infection prevalence and intensity in Baja California anurans, we conducted Bd sampling at three disparate sites at varying elevations. We observed an overall Bd prevalence of 68%, and found that species was an important predictor of pathogen prevalence and burden (load) both across and within sites. Pathogen prevalence and load increased positively with elevation. The highest Bd load we detected was 139,188 zoospore equivalents (ZE) in a western toad (Anaxyrus boreas)—more than 10 times the pathogen burden at which chytridiomycosis is lethal in some species. We observed high Bd prevalence (84 – 99%) and Bd loads (> 44,000 ZE) in the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii)—a cause for concern in this threatened anuran, especially at La Grulla—the highest elevation (2050 m) site for this species across its range. We sampled museum specimens to determine how long Bd has been present in the region, and detected the pathogen as early as 1932. Contemporary Bd prevalence and load in Baja California are considerably higher than would be expected given similar habitats and the same community composition as in southern California, USA. We therefore highlight the importance of historical context and comparative analyses in examining contemporary Bd dynamics, as well as adhering to strict biosecurity measures when implementing reintroductions and translocations.

Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the lives of individuals, families, and communities around the world with constraints on multiple aspects of daily life. The purpose of the present study was to identify specific profiles of pandemic‐related experiences and their relation to psychosocial functioning using the 92‐item Epidemic‐Pandemic Impacts Inventory (EPII). Data were collected as part of a cross‐sectional, online survey of adults (18+) residing in the Northeast region of the United States (N = 652) and recruited via online advertisements. Person‐centered latent class analysis (LCA) was applied to 38 pandemic‐related experiences that showed a significant bivariate correlation with perceived stress. Measures of psychosocial risk were also obtained. Results revealed five unique profiles of respondents based on patterns of pandemic‐related experiences. Three profiles representing about 64% of the sample were characterized by moderate to high exposure to adverse experiences during the pandemic and were more likely to screen positive for depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress. These profiles were differentiated by sociodemographic differences, including age, caregiving, and employment status. Two profiles differentiated by age and caregiver status represented about 36% of the sample and were characterized by relatively low exposure to adverse experiences and lower risk for psychosocial impairment. Findings support the EPII as an instrument for measuring tangible and meaningful experiences in the context of an unprecedented pandemic disaster. This research may serve to identify high‐risk subpopulations toward developing public health strategies for supporting families and communities in the context of public health emergencies such as the COVID‐19 pandemic.

Abstract Tropical reefs often undergo acute disturbances that result in landscape-scale loss of coral. Due to increasing threats to coral reefs from climate change and anthropogenic perturbations, it is critical to understand mechanisms that drive recovery of these ecosystems. We explored this issue on the fore reef of Moorea, French Polynesia, following a crown-of-thorns seastar outbreak and cyclone that dramatically reduced cover of coral. During the five-years following the disturbances, the rate of re-establishment of coral cover differed systematically around the triangular-shaped island; coral cover returned most rapidly at sites where the least amount of live coral remained after the disturbances. Although sites differed greatly in the rate of return of coral, all showed at least some evidence of re-assembly to their pre-disturbance community structure in terms of relative abundance of coral taxa and other benthic space holders. The primary driver of spatial variation in recovery was recruitment of sexually-produced corals; subsequent growth and survivorship were less important in shaping the spatial pattern. Our findings suggest that, although the coral community has been resilient, some areas are unlikely to attain the coral cover and taxonomic structure they had prior to the most recent disturbances before the advent of another landscape-scale perturbation.

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has contributed to global amphibian declines. Bd infects the keratinized epidermal tissue in amphibians and causes hyperkeratosis and excessive skin shedding. In individuals of susceptible species, the regulatory function of the amphibian's skin is disrupted resulting in an electrolyte depletion, osmotic imbalance, and eventually death. Safe and effective treatments for chytridiomycosis are urgently needed to control chytrid fungal infections and stabilize populations of endangered amphibian species in captivity and in the wild. Currently, the most widely used anti-Bd treatment is itraconazole. Preparations of itraconazole formulated for amphibian use has proved effective, but treatment involves short baths over seven to ten days, a process which is logistically challenging, stressful, and causes long-term health effects. Here, we explore a novel anti-fungal therapeutic using a single application of the ionic liquid, 1-Butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide (BMP-NTf2), for the treatment of chytridiomycosis. BMP-NTf2 was found be effective at killing Bd in vitro at low concentrations (1:1000 dilution). We tested BMP-NTf2 in vivo on two amphibian species, one that is relatively tolerant of chytridiomycosis (Pseudacris regilla) and one that is highly susceptible (Dendrobates tinctorius). A toxicity trial revealed a surprising interaction between Bd infection status and the impact of BMP-NTf2 on D. tinctorius survival. Uninfected D. tinctorius tolerated BMP-NTf2 (mean ± SE; 96.01 ± 9.00 μl/g), such that only 1 out of 30 frogs died following treatment (at a dose of 156.95 μL/g), whereas, a lower dose (mean ± SE; 97.45 ± 3.52 μL/g) was not tolerated by Bd-infected D. tinctorius, where 15 of 23 frogs died shortly upon BMP-NTf2 application. Those that tolerated the BMP-NTf2 application did not exhibit Bd clearance. Thus, BMP-NTf2 application, under the conditions tested here, is not a suitable option for clearing Bd infection in D. tinctorius. However, different results were obtained for P. regilla. Two topical applications of BMP-NTf2 on Bd-infected P. regilla (using a lower BMP-NTf2 dose than on D. tinctorius, mean ± SE; 9.42 ± 1.43 μL/g) reduced Bd growth, although the effect was lower than that obtained by daily doses of itracanozole (50% frogs exhibited complete clearance on day 16 vs. 100% for itracanozole). Our findings suggest that BMP-NTf2 has the potential to treat Bd infection, however the effect depends on several parameters. Further optimization of dose and schedule are needed before BMP-NTf2 can be considered as a safe and effective alternative to more conventional antifungal agents, such as itraconazole.

Abstract Novel outbreaks of emerging pathogens require rapid responses to enable successful mitigation. We simulated a 1‐day emergency meeting where experts were engaged to recommend mitigation strategies for a new outbreak of the amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans. Despite the inevitable uncertainty, experts suggested and discussed several possible strategies. However, their recommendations were undermined by imperfect initial definitions of the objectives and scope of management. This problem is likely to arise in most real‐world emergency situations. The exercise thus highlighted the importance of clearly defining the context, objectives, and spatial–temporal scale of mitigation decisions. Managers are commonly under pressure to act immediately. However, an iterative process in which experts and managers cooperate to clarify objectives and uncertainties, while collecting more information and devising mitigation strategies, may be slightly more time consuming but ultimately lead to better outcomes.

Background: Young children may be adversely impacted by separation from and loss of caregivers and other loved ones. Such experiences often co-occur with interpersonal violence, unpredictability and other traumas. Whether separation/loss has unique effects independent of those other adversities is not known. Objective: This study aimed to establish whether separation/loss is associated with trauma-related symptoms, psychiatric disorders, and functional impairment in 18- to 48-month-old children independent of other adversities. Methods: Data from a cross-sectional community and clinical cohort were analyzed. Recruitment occurred in pediatric primary care, mental health, and developmental services sites. Children (33% female) were heterogeneous in ethnic background (55% minority) and family socioeconomic status (40% living in poverty). Results: Separation/loss was common (30.9% single type, 15.0% multiple types) and frequent amongst violence-exposed children (84.4% of violence-exposed children had experienced separation/loss from a loved one). However, violence exposure was uncommon amongst children with separation/loss experiences (only 23.9% were violence-exposed). Separation/loss was significantly associated with symptoms of posttraumatic stress and reactive attachment, as well as impairment and psychiatric disorders in models that controlled for sociodemographic and contextual risks, including other traumas. Psychiatric disorders were approximately 2.5 times more likely in children who had experienced multiple separations/losses, after accounting for interpersonal violence which was also significant. Conclusion: Professionals working with young children, policy-makers and caregivers should be aware that an accumulation of caregiver separations/losses, irrespective of violence and other traumatic exposure, may have detrimental effects on young children especially in the context of prior separations/losses or disruptions in their lives.

Early-life stress (ELS) exposure is associated with adverse outcomes across the lifespan. We examined the relation of ELS exposure to resting-state fMRI in children ages 4–7 years. ELS in the first years of life, but not concurrent, was associated with higher regional homogeneity of resting-state fMRI in the left lateral frontal cortex. Resting-state fMRI functional connectivity analyses showed that the region of left lateral frontal cortex demonstrating heightened regional homogeneity associated with ELS was negatively correlated with right temporal/parahippocampal areas. Moreover, higher regional homogeneity in the left lateral frontal cortex and its negative coupling with the right middle temporal/parahippocampal areas were associated with poorer performance on a reversal-learning task performed outside the scanner. Association of ELS exposure with regional homogeneity was independent of other early adversities. These findings suggest that ELS may influence the development of cognitive control in the lateral prefrontal cortex and its interactions with temporal cortex.

Amphibians, the most threatened group of vertebrates, are seen as indicators of the sixth mass extinction on earth. Thousands of species are threatened with extinction and many have been affected by an emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, amphibians exhibit different responses to the pathogen, such as survival and population persistence with infection, or mortality of individuals and complete population collapse after pathogen invasion. Multiple factors can affect host pathogen dynamics, yet few studies have provided a temporal view that encompasses both the epizootic phase (i.e. pathogen invasion and host collapse), and the transition to a more stable co-existence (i.e. recovery of infected host populations). In the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA, conspecific populations of frogs currently exhibit dramatically different host/ Bd-pathogen dynamics. To provide a temporal context by which present day dynamics may be better understood, we use a Bd qPCR assay to test 1165 amphibian specimens collected between 1900 and 2005. Our historical analyses reveal a pattern of pathogen invasion and eventual spread across the Sierra Nevada over the last century. Although we found a small number of Bd-infections prior to 1970, these showed no sign of spread or increase in infection prevalence over multiple decades. After the late 1970s, when mass die offs were first noted, our data show Bd as much more prevalent and more spatially spread out, suggesting epizootic spread. However, across the ~400km2 area, we found no evidence of a wave-like pattern, but instead discovered multiple, nearly-simultaneous invasions within regions. We found that Bd invaded and spread in the central Sierra Nevada (Yosemite National Park area) about four decades before it invaded and spread in the southern Sierra Nevada (Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks area), and suggest that the temporal pattern of pathogen invasion may help explain divergent contemporary host pathogen dynamics.

Abstract Identifying the effects of human‐driven perturbations, such as species introductions or habitat fragmentation, on the ecology and dynamics of infectious disease has become a central focus of disease ecologists. Yet, comparatively little is known about how the ecology of zoonotic disease systems responds to catastrophic disturbance events such as wildfires or hurricanes. In California, wildfire disturbance is centrally important to the ecology of forests and oak woodlands and is projected to increase in severity and extent under future climate change. Here, taking advantage of a recent wildfire as a natural experiment, we investigate the effects of wildfire disturbance on the ecology of tick‐borne disease in California oak woodlands. We find that wildfire leads to elevated abundance of questing adult and nymphal western blacklegged ticks (Ixodes pacificus) in the year following fire, relative to unburned control plots, but that vector tick abundance declines sharply in the following two years. We find that the abundance of non‐competent hosts (western fence lizards) for the Lyme disease bacterium is unaffected by fire, but that the abundances of important reproductive hosts (deer) for ticks and reservoir hosts (dusky‐footed woodrats) for tick‐borne pathogens are significantly negatively affected by fire. We found ticks and hosts infected with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato only within the burn extent and only in the year following the wildfire, though rates of infection were exceedingly low representing little risk to humans. In aggregate, due to the differential effects of this catastrophic disturbance event on different key host species and vector tick life stages in the transmission of tick‐borne pathogens, we conclude that wildfire may potentially increase risk of exposure to vector ticks in the first year following wildfire in California, but that risk is dampened substantially in following years due to tick population declines and loss of key reservoir hosts from the system.

Symbiotic microbial communities play key roles in the health and development of their multicellular hosts. Understanding why microbial communities vary among different host species or individuals is an important step toward understanding the diversity and function of the microbiome. The amphibian skin microbiome may affect resistance to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Still, the factors that determine the diversity and composition of the amphibian skin microbiome, and therefore may ultimately contribute to disease resistance, are not well understood. We conducted a two-phase experiment to first test how host and environment shape the amphibian skin microbiome, and then test if the microbiome affects or is affected by Bd infection. Most lab experiments testing assembly of the amphibian skin microbiome so far have compared sterile to non-sterile environments or heavily augmented to non-augmented frogs. A goal of this study was to evaluate, in an experimental setting, realistic potential drivers of microbiome assembly that would be relevant to patterns observed in nature. We tested effects of frog genetic background (2 source populations) and 6 natural lake water sources in shaping the microbiome of the frog Rana sierrae. Water in which frogs were housed affected the microbiome in a manner that partially mimicked patterns observed in natural populations. In particular, frogs housed in water from disease-resistant populations had greater bacterial richness than frogs housed in water from populations that died out due to Bd. However, in the experiment this difference in microbiomes did not lead to differences in host mortality or rates of pathogen load increase. Frog source population also affected the microbiome and, although none of the frogs in this study showed true resistance to infection, host source population had a small effect on the rate of pathogen load increase. This difference in infection trajectories could be due to the observed differences in the microbiome, but could also be due to other traits that differ between frogs from the two populations. In addition to examining effects of the microbiome on Bd, we tested the effect of Bd infection severity on the microbiome. Specifically, we studied a time series of the microbiome over the course of infection to test if the effects of Bd on the microbiome are dependent on Bd infection severity. Although limited to a small subset of frogs, time series analysis suggested that relative abundances of several bacterial phylotypes changed as Bd loads increased through time, indicating that Bd-induced disturbance of the R. sierrae microbiome is not a binary effect but instead is dependent on infection severity. We conclude that both host and aquatic environment help shape the R. sierrae skin microbiome, with links to small changes in disease resistance in some cases, but in this study the effect of Bd on the microbiome was greater than the effect of the microbiome on Bd. Assessment of the microbiome differences between more distantly related populations than those studied here is needed to fully understand the role of the microbiome in resistance to Bd.

Amphibian species are experiencing population declines due to infection by the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), an asymptomatic carrier of Bd, has been implicated in the spread of this pathogen through global trade and established invasive populations on several continents. However, research has not explored the relationships of both life stages of this amphibian with Bd. While the post-metamorphic individuals may act as a reservoir, spreading the infection to susceptible species, the filter-feeding larvae may consume the motile Bd zoospores from the water column, potentially reducing pathogen abundance and thus the likelihood of infection. We explore these contrasting processes by assessing Bd prevalence and infection intensities in field populations of post-metamorphic individuals, and performing laboratory experiments to determine if larval X. laevis preyed upon Bd zoospores. The water flea, Daphnia magna, was included in the Bd consumption trials to compare consumption rates and to explore whether intraguild predation between the larval X. laevis and Daphnia may occur, potentially interfering with control of Bd zoospores by Daphnia. Field surveys of three X. laevis populations in southern California, in which 70 post-metamorphic individuals were tested for Bd, found 10% infection prevalence. All infected individuals had very low infection loads (all Bd loads were below 5 zoospore equivalents). Laboratory experiments found that larval X. laevis consume Bd zoospores and therefore may reduce Bd abundance and transmission between amphibians. However, metamorphic and juvenile X. laevis exhibited intraguild predation by consuming Daphnia, which also prey upon Bd zoospores. The results suggest that X laevis is not a large reservoir for Bd and its larval stage may offer some reduction of Bd transmission through direct predation.

Coral reef systems can undergo rapid transitions from coral-dominated to macroalgae-dominated states following disturbances, and models indicate that these may sometimes represent shifts between alternative stable states. While several mechanisms may lead to alternate stable states on coral reefs, only a few have been investigated theoretically. We explore a model that illustrates that reduced vulnerability of macroalgae to herbivory as macroalgae grow and mature could be an important mechanism: when macroalgae are palatable to herbivores as juveniles, but resistant as adults, coral-dominated and algae-dominated states are bistable across a wide range of parameter space. We compare two approaches to global sensitivity analysis to rank the relative importance of the model parameters in determining the presence and magnitude of alternative stable states, and find that the two most influential parameters are the death rate of coral and the rate of maturation of algae out of the vulnerable stage. The Random Forest approach for global sensitivity analysis, recently adopted by ecologists, provides a more efficient method for ranking the relative importance of parameters than a variance-based approach that has been used frequently by computer scientists and engineers. Our results suggest that managing reefs to reduce chronic stressors that cause coral mortality and/or enhance the growth rates of algae can help prevent reefs from becoming locked in a macroalgae-dominated state.

Affinity zones are defined as areas within which air quality displays consistent behaviour over space and time. Constructed using multivariate statistical techniques and physiographic and landscape variables reflecting underlying sources and spatial patterns of air pollution, affinity zones provide a spatial structure suited to exploring the representativity of monitoring networks and as a basis for air pollution mapping and exposure assessment. The affinity zone method is demonstrated using European air pollution monitoring sites, and environmental data compiled within a 1 km GIS. Organised into three main stages, this method involves: (i) indicator selection, using principal components analysis, (ii) zonation by cluster analysis to classify areas into distinct types, and (iii) site allocation, to confirm similarity within affinity zones in terms of monitored air pollution concentrations. Ten interpretable and coherent air pollution affinity zones were constructed for Europe, including two rural zones and eight related to different types of densely populated and built up environments. Concentrations between affinity zones differed significantly for NO2 background and traffic sites and for PM10 traffic sites only. Not all zones, however, were found to be sufficiently represented by monitoring sites, illustrating the importance of affinity zones in identifying deficiencies in monitoring networks. Spatial modelling within affinity zones is also demonstrated, showing that simple kriging of background NO2 concentrations within zones (compared to kriging ignoring zones) produced a ca. 22% reduction in errors and increased R2 by 0.25 at reserved validation monitoring sites. The affinity zone method developed here is a robust, statistical approach that can be used for evaluating the representativity of routine monitoring networks often used in continental level environmental and health risk assessments. Keywords: Affinity zones, Environmental stratification, Air pollution, Exposure modelling, Risk assessment, Multivariate statistical analysis

Abstract Species extinctions have the potential to dramatically reshape ecological communities. In the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, the emergence of a lethal amphibian pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) drives mountain yellow‐legged frog (Rana muscosa and Rana sierrae) populations to local extinction. Prior to population declines, these frogs and their tadpoles were abundant, high‐level predators and grazers with high trophic connectance. To quantify how these low diversity aquatic macroinvertebrate communities respond to nonrandom single‐species local extinctions, we quantified aquatic macroinvertebrate communities using two approaches: a natural experiment (“Resurveys”) and a large‐scale synoptic observational study (“Snapshot” surveys). In the Resurveys, we compared benthic macroinvertebrate communities in 22 Sierra Nevada alpine lakes that we categorized as either having extant frog populations, experiencing ongoing disease‐driven frog declines, or having previously experienced local disease‐driven frog extirpation. In the Resurveys, taxonomic richness was about one taxa (17%) higher in lakes where frogs were declining or extinct, compared to lakes where frogs were extant. However, multivariate analyses revealed no strong dissimilarities among Resurvey communities, and there were no differences in the abundances of individual taxa between lakes in the frogs extant, declining, or extinct categories. In the Snapshot surveys, we reanalyzed previously collected data from a large‐scale survey of 157 lakes with and without frogs. In the Snapshot survey, invertebrate taxonomic richness was less than one taxa (9%) lower in lakes without frogs, and multivariate analyses again indicated only small differences between lakes with and without frogs. Overall, disease‐driven mountain yellow‐legged frog extinctions had small effects on lake benthic macroinvertebrate communities, with no large changes in invertebrate abundance, richness or evenness, no clear secondary extinctions or invasions, and few taxa showing distinct responses to frog extinctions. Our study highlights how even for conspicuous, highly connected, omnivorous taxa that are experiencing large, rapid, and widespread declines and extinctions, the ecological effects of extinctions will sometimes be small and subtle.