Search

Two lineages of influenza B virus currently co-circulate and have distinct antigenicity, termed Victoria and Yamagata after the B/Victoria/2/87 and B/Yamagata/16/88 strains, respectively. We analyzed antibody titer dynamics following PCR-confirmed influenza B virus infection in a longitudinal community-based cohort study conducted in Hong Kong from 2009-2014 to assess patterns in changes in antibody titers to B/Victoria and B/Yamagata viruses following infections with each lineage. Among 62 PCR-confirmed cases, almost half had undetectable hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody titers to the lineage of infection both pre-infection and post-infection. Among those infected with influenza B/Victoria who showed an HAI titer response after infection, we found strong rises to the lineage of infection, positive but smaller cross-lineage HAI titer boosts, a small dependence of HAI titer boosts on pre-infection titers, and a shorter half-life of HAI titers in adults. Our study is limited by the low HAI sensitivity for non-ether-treated IBV antigen and the incapacity of performing other assays with higher sensitivity, as well as the mismatch between the B/Yamagata lineage circulating strain and the assay strain in one of the study seasons.

Many blood donation services around the globe maintain large archives of serum and/or plasma specimens of blood donations which could potentially be used for serologic surveillance and risk assessment of influenza. Harnessing this potential requires robust evidence that the outcomes of influenza serology in plasma, which is rarely used, is consistent with that in serum, which is the conventional choice of specimens for influenza serology. We harvested EDTA-plasma specimens from the blood donation archives of Hong Kong Red Cross Transfusion Services, where EDTA is the type of anticoagulant used for plasma collection, compared their antibody titers and responses to that in serum. Influenza A/H1N1/California/7/2009 and A/H3N2/Victoria/208/2009 were the test strains. Our results showed that antibody titers in 609 matched serum/EDTA-plasma specimens (i.e. obtained from the same donor at the same time) had good agreement inferred by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, the value of which was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.77-0.86) for hemagglutination inhibition assay and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93-0.96) for microneutralization assay; seroconversion rates (based on hemagglutination inhibition titers) during the 2010 and 2011 influenza seasons in Hong Kong inferred from paired EDTA-plasma were similar to that inferred from paired sera. Our study provided the proof-of-concept that blood donation archives could be leveraged as a valuable source of longitudinal blood specimens for the surveillance, control and risk assessment of both pandemic and seasonal influenza.

BackgroundMany serologic studies were done during and after the 2009 influenza pandemic, to estimate the cumulative incidence of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infections, but there are few comparative estimates of the incidence of influenza A(H3N2) virus infections during epidemics.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal serologic study in Hong Kong. We collected sera annually and tested samples from 2009-13 by HAI against the A/Perth/16/2009(H3N2) virus, and samples from 2013-15 against the A/Victoria/361/2011(H3N2) virus using the hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay. We estimated the cumulative incidence of infections based on 4-fold or greater rises in HAI titers in consecutive sera.ResultsThere were four major H3N2 epidemics: (1) Aug-Oct 2010; (2) Mar-Jun 2012; (3) Jul-Oct 2013; and (4) Jun-Jul 2014. Between 516 and 619 relevant pairs of sera were available for each epidemic. We estimated that 9%, 19%, 7% and 7% of the population were infected in each epidemic, respectively, with higher incidence in children in epidemics 1 and 4.ConclusionsWe found that re-infections in each of the four H3N2 epidemics that occurred from 2010 through 2014 were rare. The largest H3N2 epidemic occurred with the lowest level of pre-epidemic immunity.

We aimed to describe patterns in the usage of antivirals to treat influenza virus infection in hospitals in Hong Kong from 2000 through 2015.We analyzed centralized electronic health records that included dispensation information and diagnosis codes. Information collected on admissions included patient age, sex, admission year and month, and medications dispensed, and were matched with the first 15 discharge diagnosis codes. We divided monthly admission episodes by relevant population denominators to obtain admission rates, and stratified analyses by drug type, age group, and diagnosis codes.Amantadine was used for influenza treatment in the early 2000s but changed with recommendations to avoid its use in 2006, and is now mainly used to treat Parkinson's disease. Oseltamivir usage increased substantially in 2009 and is now commonly used, with almost 40,000 hospitalizations treated with oseltamivir in the years 2012 through 2015, 66% of which was in persons ≥65 years of age. During the entire study period, of the 98,253 admission episodes in which oseltamivir was dispensed, 40,698 (41%) included a diagnosis code for influenza, and 80,283 (82%) included any diagnosis code for respiratory illness.The amount of oseltamivir used from 2012-15 was comparable to a separate ecological estimate of around 13,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations per year on average. We did not have access to individual patient laboratory testing data.

Abstract Whole virion inactivated vaccine CoronaVac (C) and Spike (S) mRNA BNT162b2 (B) vaccines differ greatly in their ability to elicit neutralizing antibodies but have somewhat comparable effectiveness in protecting from severe COVID-19. We conducted further analyses for a randomized trial (Cobovax study, NCT05057169) of third dose homologous and heterologous booster vaccination, i.e. four interventions CC-C, CC-B, BB-C and BB-B. Here, we assess vaccine immunogenicity beyond neutralizing function, including S and non-S antibodies with Fc receptor (FcR) binding, antibody avidity and T cell specificity to 6 months post-vaccination. Ancestral and Omicron S-specific IgG and FcR binding are significantly higher by BNT162b2 booster than CoronaVac, regardless of first doses. Nucleocapsid (N) antibodies are only increased in homologous boosted CoronaVac participants (CC-C). CoronaVac primed participants have lower baseline S-specific CD4+ IFNγ+ cells, but are significantly increased by either CoronaVac or BNT162b2 boosters. Priming vaccine content defined T cell peptide specificity preference, with S-specific T cells dominating B primed groups and non-S structural peptides contributing more in C primed groups, regardless of booster type. S-specific CD4+ T cell responses, N-specific antibodies, and antibody effector functions via Fc receptor binding may contribute to protection and compensate for less potent neutralizing responses in CoronaVac recipients.

BACKGROUND:In early 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) virus emerged in China, and has caused sporadic human infections. The incubation period is the delay from infection until onset of symptoms, and varies from person to person. Few previous studies have examined whether the duration of the incubation period correlates with subsequent disease severity. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We analyzed data of period of exposure on 395 human cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in China in a Bayesian framework using a Weibull distribution. We found a longer incubation period for the 173 fatal cases with a mean of 3.7 days (95% credibility interval, CrI: 3.4-4.1), compared to a mean of 3.3 days (95% CrI: 2.9-3.6) for the 222 non-fatal cases, and the difference in means was marginally significant at 0.47 days (95% CrI: -0.04, 0.99). There was a statistically significant correlation between a longer incubation period and an increased risk of death after adjustment for age, sex, geographical location and underlying medical conditions (adjusted odds ratio 1.70 per day increase in incubation period; 95% credibility interval 1.47-1.97). CONCLUSIONS:We found a significant association between a longer incubation period and a greater risk of death among human H7N9 cases. The underlying biological mechanisms leading to this association deserve further exploration.

BACKGROUND:Identifying individual correlates of infectivity of influenza virus is important for disease control and prevention. Viral shedding is used as a proxy measure of infectivity in many studies. However, the evidence for this is limited. METHODS:In a detailed study of influenza virus transmission within households in 2008-12, we recruited index cases with confirmed influenza infection from outpatient clinics, and followed up their household contacts for 7-10 days to identify secondary infections. We used individual-based hazard models to characterize the relationship between individual viral shedding and individual infectivity. RESULTS:We analyzed 386 households with 1147 household contacts. Index cases were separated into 3 groups according to their estimated level of viral shedding at symptom onset. We did not find a statistically significant association of virus shedding with transmission. Index cases in medium and higher viral shedding groups were estimated to have 21% (95% CI: -29%, 113%) and 44% (CI: -16%, 167%) higher infectivity, compared with those in the lower viral shedding group. CONCLUSIONS:Individual viral load measured by RT-PCR in the nose and throat was at most weakly correlated with individual infectivity in households. Other correlates of infectivity should be examined in future studies.

Abstract In 2017, a novel influenza A virus (IAV) was isolated from an Egyptian fruit bat. In contrast to other bat influenza viruses, the virus was related to avian A(H9N2) viruses and was probably the result of a bird-to-bat transmission event. To determine the cross-species spill-over potential, we biologically characterize features of A/bat/Egypt/381OP/2017(H9N2). The virus has a pH inactivation profile and neuraminidase activity similar to those of human-adapted IAVs. Despite the virus having an avian virus–like preference for α2,3 sialic acid receptors, it is unable to replicate in male mallard ducks; however, it readily infects ex-vivo human respiratory cell cultures and replicates in the lungs of female mice. A/bat/Egypt/381OP/2017 replicates in the upper respiratory tract of experimentally-infected male ferrets featuring direct-contact and airborne transmission. These data suggest that the bat A(H9N2) virus has features associated with increased risk to humans without a shift to a preference for α2,6 sialic acid receptors.

BackgroundThe 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic caused offseason peaks in temperate regions but coincided with the summer epidemic of seasonal influenza and other common respiratory viruses in subtropical Hong Kong. This study was aimed to investigate the impact of the pandemic on age-specific epidemic curves of other respiratory viruses.MethodsWeekly laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A (subtypes seasonal A(H1N1), A(H3N2), pandemic virus A(H1N1)pdm09), influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus and parainfluenza were obtained from 2004 to 2013. Age-specific epidemic curves of viruses other than A(H1N1)pdm09 were compared between the pre-pandemic (May 2004-April 2009), pandemic (May 2009-April 2010) and post-pandemic periods (May 2010-April 2013).ResultsThere were two peaks of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Hong Kong, the first in September 2009 and the second in February 2011. The infection rate was found highest in young children in both waves, but markedly fewer cases in school children were recorded in the second wave than in the first wave. Positive proportions of viruses other than A(H1N1)pdm09 markedly decreased in all age groups during the first pandemic wave. After the first wave of the pandemic, the positive proportion of A(H3N2) increased, but those of B and RSV remained slightly lower than their pre-pandemic proportions. Changes in seasonal pattern and epidemic peak time were also observed, but inconsistent across virus-age groups.ConclusionOur findings provide some evidence that age distribution, seasonal pattern and peak time of other respiratory viruses have changed since the pandemic. These changes could be the result of immune interference and changing health seeking behavior, but the mechanism behind still needs further investigations.

Seroprevalence survey is the most practical method for accurately estimating infection attack rate (IAR) in an epidemic such as influenza. These studies typically entail selecting an arbitrary titer threshold for seropositivity (e.g. microneutralization [MN] 1∶40) and assuming the probability of seropositivity given infection (infection-seropositivity probability, ISP) is 100% or similar to that among clinical cases. We hypothesize that such conventions are not necessarily robust because different thresholds may result in different IAR estimates and serologic responses of clinical cases may not be representative. To illustrate our hypothesis, we used an age-structured transmission model to fully characterize the transmission dynamics and seroprevalence rises of 2009 influenza pandemic A/H1N1 (pdmH1N1) during its first wave in Hong Kong. We estimated that while 99% of pdmH1N1 infections became MN1∶20 seropositive, only 72%, 62%, 58% and 34% of infections among age 3-12, 13-19, 20-29, 30-59 became MN1∶40 seropositive, which was much lower than the 90%-100% observed among clinical cases. The fitted model was consistent with prevailing consensus on pdmH1N1 transmission characteristics (e.g. initial reproductive number of 1.28 and mean generation time of 2.4 days which were within the consensus range), hence our ISP estimates were consistent with the transmission dynamics and temporal buildup of population-level immunity. IAR estimates in influenza seroprevalence studies are sensitive to seropositivity thresholds and ISP adjustments which in current practice are mostly chosen based on conventions instead of systematic criteria. Our results thus highlighted the need for reexamining conventional practice to develop standards for analyzing influenza serologic data (e.g. real-time assessment of bias in ISP adjustments by evaluating the consistency of IAR across multiple thresholds and with mixture models), especially in the context of pandemics when robustness and comparability of IAR estimates are most needed for informing situational awareness and risk assessment. The same principles are broadly applicable for seroprevalence studies of other infectious disease outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Poisson model has been widely applied to estimate the disease burden of influenza, but there has been little success in providing reliable estimates for other respiratory viruses. METHODS: We compared the estimates of excess hospitalization rates derived from the Poisson models with different combinations of inference methods and virus proxies respectively, with the aim to determine the optimal modeling approach. These models were validated by comparing the estimates of excess hospitalization attributable to respiratory viruses with the observed rates of laboratory confirmed paediatric hospitalization for acute respiratory infections obtained from a population based study. RESULTS: The Bayesian inference method generally outperformed the classical likelihood estimation, particularly for RSV and parainfluenza, in terms of providing estimates closer to the observed hospitalization rates. Compared to the other proxy variables, age-specific positive counts provided better estimates for influenza, RSV and parainfluenza, regardless of inference methods. The Bayesian inference combined with age-specific positive counts also provided valid and reliable estimates for excess hospitalization associated with multiple respiratory viruses in both the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and interpandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: Poisson models using the Bayesian inference method and virus proxies of age-specific positive counts should be considered in disease burden studies on multiple respiratory viruses.

Two independent studies by two separate research teams (from Hong Kong and Singapore) failed to detect any influenza RNA landing on, or inhaled by, a life-like, human manikin target, after exposure to naturally influenza-infected volunteers. For the Hong Kong experiments, 9 influenza-infected volunteers were recruited to breathe, talk/count and cough, from 0.1 m and 0.5 m distance, onto a mouth-breathing manikin. Aerosolised droplets exhaled from the volunteers and entering the manikin's mouth were collected with PTFE filters and an aerosol sampler, in separate experiments. Virus detection was performed using an in-house influenza RNA reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. No influenza RNA was detected from any of the PTFE filters or air samples. For the Singapore experiments, 6 influenza-infected volunteers were asked to breathe (nasal/mouth breathing), talk (counting in English/second language), cough (from 1 m/0.1 m away) and laugh, onto a thermal, breathing manikin. The manikin's face was swabbed at specific points (around both eyes, the nostrils and the mouth) before and after exposure to each of these respiratory activities, and was cleaned between each activity with medical grade alcohol swabs. Shadowgraph imaging was used to record the generation of these respiratory aerosols from the infected volunteers and their impact onto the target manikin. No influenza RNA was detected from any of these swabs with either team's in-house diagnostic influenza assays. All the influenza-infected volunteers had diagnostic swabs taken at recruitment that confirmed influenza (A/H1, A/H3 or B) infection with high viral loads, ranging from 10(5)-10(8) copies/mL (Hong Kong volunteers/assay) and 10(4)-10(7) copies/mL influenza viral RNA (Singapore volunteers/assay). These findings suggest that influenza RNA may not be readily transmitted from naturally-infected human source to susceptible recipients via these natural respiratory activities, within these exposure time-frames. Various reasons are discussed in an attempt to explain these findings.

OBJECTIVES:We aim to document and analyze influenza hospitalization burden in light of antigenic changes in circulating influenza viruses in Hong Kong. METHODS:The pediatric age-specific rates of influenza A hospitalization in Hong Kong for 2004-2011 which encompassed the emergence of H1N1pdm09 were extrapolated from admissions to 2 hospitals that together catered for 72.5% of all pediatric admissions on Hong Kong Island. Influenza A was detected by immunofluorescence, culture and/or PCR on nasopharyngeal aspirates. RESULTS:Influenza A caused high rates of hospitalization in children with year to year fluctuations. The highest hospitalization burden was seen with H1N1pdm09 in 2009. Additional factors affecting hospitalization were the proportion of viral circulation among different subtypes, and antigenic drifts. Taking these into effect, an H3N2 dominated year was not always associated with more hospitalizations than a 'seasonal' H1N1 year. Hospitalization burden was higher in seasons when drifted viruses of H1N1 or H3N2 dominated. No hospitalization was documented in infants

While influenza A and B viruses can be transmitted via respiratory droplets, the importance of small droplet nuclei "aerosols" in transmission is controversial.In Hong Kong and Bangkok, in 2008-11, subjects were recruited from outpatient clinics if they had recent onset of acute respiratory illness and none of their household contacts were ill. Following a positive rapid influenza diagnostic test result, subjects were randomly allocated to one of three household-based interventions: hand hygiene, hand hygiene plus face masks, and a control group. Index cases plus their household contacts were followed for 7-10 days to identify secondary infections by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing of respiratory specimens. Index cases with RT-PCR-confirmed influenza B were included in the present analyses. We used a mathematical model to make inferences on the modes of transmission, facilitated by apparent differences in clinical presentation of secondary infections resulting from aerosol transmission. We estimated that approximately 37% and 26% of influenza B virus transmission was via the aerosol mode in households in Hong Kong and Bangkok, respectively. In the fitted model, influenza B virus infections were associated with a 56%-72% risk of fever plus cough if infected via aerosol route, and a 23%-31% risk of fever plus cough if infected via the other two modes of transmission.Aerosol transmission may be an important mode of spread of influenza B virus. The point estimates of aerosol transmission were slightly lower for influenza B virus compared to previously published estimates for influenza A virus in both Hong Kong and Bangkok. Caution should be taken in interpreting these findings because of the multiple assumptions inherent in the model, including that there is limited biological evidence to date supporting a difference in the clinical features of influenza B virus infection by different modes.

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is the etiological agent for the infectious disease, SARS, which first emerged 10 years ago. SARS-CoV is a zoonotic virus that has crossed the species barriers to infect humans. Bats, which harbour a diverse pool of SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoVs), are believed to be the natural reservoir. The SARS-CoV surface Spike (S) protein is a major antigenic determinant in eliciting neutralizing antibody production during SARS-CoV infection. In our previous work, we showed that a panel of murine monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that target the S2 subunit of the S protein are capable of neutralizing SARS-CoV infection in vitro (Lip KM et al, J Virol. 2006 Jan; 80(2): 941-50). In this study, we report our findings on the characterization of one of these mAbs, known as 1A9, which binds to the S protein at a novel epitope within the S2 subunit at amino acids 1111-1130. MAb 1A9 is a broadly neutralizing mAb that prevents viral entry mediated by the S proteins of human and civet SARS-CoVs as well as bat SL-CoVs. By generating mutant SARS-CoV that escapes the neutralization by mAb 1A9, the residue D1128 in S was found to be crucial for its interaction with mAb 1A9. S protein containing the substitution of D1128 with alanine (D1128A) exhibited a significant decrease in binding capability to mAb 1A9 compared to wild-type S protein. By using a pseudotyped viral entry assay, it was shown that the D1128A substitution in the escape virus allows it to overcome the viral entry blockage by mAb 1A9. In addition, the D1128A mutation was found to exert no effects on the S protein cell surface expression and incorporation into virion particles, suggesting that the escape virus retains the same viral entry property as the wild-type virus.

The first step in influenza infection of the human respiratory tract is binding of the virus to sialic (Sia) acid terminated receptors. The binding of different strains of virus for the receptor is determined by the α linkage of the sialic acid to galactose and the adjacent glycan structure. In this study the N- and O-glycan composition of the human lung, bronchus and nasopharynx was characterized by mass spectrometry. Analysis showed that there was a wide spectrum of both Sia α2-3 and α2-6 glycans in the lung and bronchus. This glycan structural data was then utilized in combination with binding data from 4 of the published glycan arrays to assess whether these current glycan arrays were able to predict replication of human, avian and swine viruses in human ex vivo respiratory tract tissues. The most comprehensive array from the Consortium for Functional Glycomics contained the greatest diversity of sialylated glycans, but was not predictive of productive replication in the bronchus and lung. Our findings indicate that more comprehensive but focused arrays need to be developed to investigate influenza virus binding in an assessment of newly emerging influenza viruses.

There is some evidence that annual vaccination of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) may lead to reduced vaccine immunogenicity but evidence is lacking on whether vaccine efficacy is affected by prior vaccination history. The efficacy of one dose of TIV in children 6-8 y of age against influenza B is uncertain. We examined whether immunogenicity and efficacy of influenza vaccination in school-age children varied by age and past vaccination history.We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 2009-10 TIV. Influenza vaccination history in the two preceding years was recorded. Immunogenicity was assessed by comparison of HI titers before and one month after receipt of TIV/placebo. Subjects were followed up for 11 months with symptom diaries, and respiratory specimens were collected during acute respiratory illnesses to permit confirmation of influenza virus infections. We found that previous vaccination was associated with reduced antibody responses to TIV against seasonal A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) particularly in children 9-17 y of age, but increased antibody responses to the same lineage of influenza B virus in children 6-8 y of age. Serological responses to the influenza A vaccine viruses were high regardless of vaccination history. One dose of TIV appeared to be efficacious against confirmed influenza B in children 6-8 y of age regardless of vaccination history.Prior vaccination was associated with lower antibody titer rises following vaccination against seasonal influenza A vaccine viruses, but higher responses to influenza B among individuals primed with viruses from the same lineage in preceding years. In a year in which influenza B virus predominated, no impact of prior vaccination history was observed on vaccine efficacy against influenza B. The strains that circulated in the year of study did not allow us to study the effect of prior vaccination on vaccine efficacy against influenza A.

Mongolia combines a near absence of domestic poultry, with an abundance of migratory waterbirds, to create an ideal location to study the epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in a purely wild bird system. Here we present the findings of active and passive surveillance for HPAIV subtype H5N1 in Mongolia from 2005-2011, together with the results of five outbreak investigations. In total eight HPAIV outbreaks were confirmed in Mongolia during this period. Of these, one was detected during active surveillance employed by this project, three by active surveillance performed by Mongolian government agencies, and four through passive surveillance. A further three outbreaks were recorded in the neighbouring Tyva Republic of Russia on a lake that bisects the international border. No HPAIV was isolated (cultured) from 7,855 environmental fecal samples (primarily from ducks), or from 2,765 live, clinically healthy birds captured during active surveillance (primarily shelducks, geese and swans), while four HPAIVs were isolated from 141 clinically ill or dead birds located through active surveillance. Two low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIV) were cultured from ill or dead birds during active surveillance, while environmental feces and live healthy birds yielded 56 and 1 LPAIV respectively. All Mongolian outbreaks occurred in 2005 and 2006 (clade 2.2), or 2009 and 2010 (clade 2.3.2.1); all years in which spring HPAIV outbreaks were reported in Tibet and/or Qinghai provinces in China. The occurrence of outbreaks in areas deficient in domestic poultry is strong evidence that wild birds can carry HPAIV over at least moderate distances. However, failure to detect further outbreaks of clade 2.2 after June 2006, and clade 2.3.2.1 after June 2010 suggests that wild birds migrating to and from Mongolia may not be competent as indefinite reservoirs of HPAIV, or that HPAIV did not reach susceptible populations during our study.

BACKGROUND: Poisson regression modeling has been widely used to estimate influenza-associated disease burden, as it has the advantage of adjusting for multiple seasonal confounders. However, few studies have discussed how to judge the adequacy of confounding adjustment. This study aims to compare the performance of commonly adopted model selection criteria in terms of providing a reliable and valid estimate for the health impact of influenza. METHODS: We assessed four model selection criteria: quasi Akaike information criterion (QAIC), quasi bayesian information criterion (QBIC), partial autocorrelation functions of residuals (PACF), and generalized cross-validation (GCV), by separately applying them to select the Poisson model best fitted to the mortality datasets that were simulated under the different assumptions of seasonal confounding. The performance of these criteria was evaluated by the bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of estimates from the pre-determined coefficients of influenza proxy variable. These four criteria were subsequently applied to an empirical hospitalization dataset to confirm the findings of simulation study. RESULTS: GCV consistently provided smaller biases and RMSEs for the influenza coefficient estimates than QAIC, QBIC and PACF, under the different simulation scenarios. Sensitivity analysis of different pre-determined influenza coefficients, study periods and lag weeks showed that GCV consistently outperformed the other criteria. Similar results were found in applying these selection criteria to estimate influenza-associated hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: GCV criterion is recommended for selection of Poisson models to estimate influenza-associated mortality and morbidity burden with proper adjustment for confounding. These findings shall help standardize the Poisson modeling approach for influenza disease burden studies.

BACKGROUND: Serological studies for influenza infection and vaccine response often involve microneutralization and hemagglutination inhibition assays to evaluate neutralizing antibodies against human and avian influenza viruses, including H5N1. We have previously characterized lentiviral particles pseudotyped with H5-HA (H5pp) and validated an H5pp-based assay as a safe alternative for high-throughput serological studies in BSL-2 facilities. Here we show that H5-HAs from different clades do not always give rise to efficient production of H5pp and the underlying mechanisms are addressed. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: We have carried out mutational analysis to delineate the molecular determinants responsible for efficient packaging of HA from A/Cambodia/40808/2005 (H5Cam) and A/Anhui/1/2005 (H5Anh) into H5pp. Our results demonstrate that a single A134V mutation in the 130-loop of the receptor binding domain is sufficient to render H5Anh the ability to generate H5Anh-pp efficiently, whereas the reverse V134A mutation greatly hampers production of H5Cam-pp. Although protein expression in total cell lysates is similar for H5Anh and H5Cam, cell surface expression of H5Cam is detected at a significantly higher level than that of H5Anh. We further demonstrate by several independent lines of evidence that the behaviour of H5Anh can be explained by a stronger binding to sialic acid receptors implicating residue 134. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a single A134V mutation as the molecular determinant in H5-HA for efficient incorporation into H5pp envelope and delineated the underlying mechanism. The reduced binding to sialic acid receptors as a result of the A134V mutation not only exerts a critical influence in pseudotyping efficiency of H5-HA, but has also an impact at the whole virus level. Because A134V substitution has been reported as a naturally occurring mutation in human host, our results may have implications for the understanding of human host adaptation of avian influenza H5N1 viruses.

The pathogenesis of human influenza H5N1 virus infection remains poorly understood and controversial. Cytokine dysregulation in human infection has been hypothesized to contribute to disease severity. We developed in vitro cultures of mouse bone marrow derived macrophages (BMDMΦ) from C57BL/6N mouse to compare influenza A (H5N1 and H1N1) virus replication and pro-inflammatory cytokine and chemokine responses. While both H1N1 and H5N1 viruses infected the mouse bone marrow derived macrophages, only the H1N1 virus had showed evidence of productive viral replication from the infected cells. In comparison with human seasonal influenza H1N1 (A/HK/54/98) and mouse adapted influenza H1N1 (A/WSN/33) viruses, the highly pathogenic influenza H5N1 virus (A/HK/483/97) was a more potent inducer of the chemokine, CXCL 10 (IP-10), while there was not a clear differential TNF-α protein expression pattern. Although human influenza viruses rarely cause infection in mice without prior adaption, the use of in vitro cell cultures of primary mouse cells is of interest, especially given the availability of gene-defective (knock-out) mice for specific genes.

In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity.We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1-2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-29 y, and 30-59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-19 y, and 20-29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30-59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%-10%.Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered.

BackgroundWhile patterns of incidence of clinical influenza have been well described, much uncertainty remains over patterns of incidence of infection. The 2009 pandemic provided both the motivation and opportunity to investigate patterns of mild and asymptomatic infection using serological techniques. However, to date, only broad epidemiological patterns have been defined, based on largely cross-sectional study designs with convenience sampling frameworks.Methods and findingsWe conducted a paired serological survey of a cohort of households in Hong Kong, recruited using random digit dialing, and gathered data on severe confirmed cases from the public hospital system (>90% inpatient days). Paired sera were obtained from 770 individuals, aged 3 to 103, along with detailed individual-level and household-level risk factors for infection. Also, we extrapolated beyond the period of our study using time series of severe cases and we simulated alternate study designs using epidemiological parameters obtained from our data. Rates of infection during the period of our study decreased substantially with age: for 3-19 years, the attack rate was 39% (31%-49%); 20-39 years, 8.9% (5.3%-14.7%); 40-59 years, 5.3% (3.5%-8.0%); and 60 years or older, 0.77% (0.18%-4.2%). We estimated parameters for a parsimonious model of infection in which a linear age term and the presence of a child in the household were used to predict the log odds of infection. Patterns of symptom reporting suggested that children experienced symptoms more often than adults. The overall rate of confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (H1N1pdm) deaths was 7.6 (6.2-9.5) per 100,000 infections. However, there was substantial and progressive increase in deaths per 100,000 infections with increasing age from 0.66 (0.65-0.86) for 3-19 years up to 220 (50-4,000) for 60 years and older. Extrapolating beyond the period of our study using rates of severe disease, we estimated that 56% (43%-69%) of 3-19 year olds and 16% (13%-18%) of people overall were infected by the pandemic strain up to the end of January 2010. Using simulation, we found that, during 2009, larger cohorts with shorter follow-up times could have rapidly provided similar data to those presented here.ConclusionsShould H1N1pdm evolve to be more infectious in older adults, average rates of severe disease per infection could be higher in future waves: measuring such changes in severity requires studies similar to that described here. The benefit of effective vaccination against H1N1pdm infection is likely to be substantial for older individuals. Revised pandemic influenza preparedness plans should include prospective serological cohort studies. Many individuals, of all ages, remained susceptible to H1N1pdm after the main 2009 wave in Hong Kong. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers in many countries are recommended to receive influenza vaccine to protect themselves as well as patients. A monovalent H1N1 vaccine became available in Hong Kong in December 2009 and around 10% of local healthcare workers had received the vaccine by February 2010. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of the prevalence of antibody to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among HCWs in Hong Kong in February-March 2010 following the first pandemic wave and the pH1N1 vaccination campaign. In this study we focus on the subset of healthcare workers who reported receipt of non-adjuvanted monovalent 2009 H1N1 vaccine (Panenza, Sanofi Pasteur). Sera collected from HCWs were tested for antibody against the pH1N1 virus by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and viral neutralization (VN) assays. RESULTS: We enrolled 703 HCWs. Among 104 HCWs who reported receipt of pH1N1 vaccine, 54% (95% confidence interval (CI): 44%-63%) had antibody titer ≥1∶40 by HI and 42% (95% CI: 33%-52%) had antibody titer ≥1∶40 by VN. The proportion of HCWs with antibody titer ≥1∶40 by HI and VN significantly decreased with age, and the proportion with antibody titer ≥1∶40 by VN was marginally significantly lower among HCWs who reported prior receipt of 2007-08 seasonal influenza vaccine (odds ratio: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.19-1.00). After adjustment for age, the effect of prior seasonal vaccine receipt was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that monovalent H1N1 vaccine may have had suboptimal immunogenicity in HCWs in Hong Kong. Larger studies are required to confirm whether influenza vaccine maintains high efficacy and effectiveness in HCWs.

BACKGROUND: Reliable estimates of disease burden associated with respiratory viruses are keys to deployment of preventive strategies such as vaccination and resource allocation. Such estimates are particularly needed in tropical and subtropical regions where some methods commonly used in temperate regions are not applicable. While a number of alternative approaches to assess the influenza associated disease burden have been recently reported, none of these models have been validated with virologically confirmed data. Even fewer methods have been developed for other common respiratory viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We had recently conducted a prospective population-based study of virologically confirmed hospitalization for acute respiratory illnesses in persons

Type I interferons (IFNs) function as the first line of defense against viral infections by modulating cell growth, establishing an antiviral state and influencing the activation of various immune cells. Viruses such as influenza have developed mechanisms to evade this defense mechanism and during infection with influenza A viruses, the non-structural protein 1 (NS1) encoded by the virus genome suppresses induction of IFNs-α/β. Here we show that expression of avian H5N1 NS1 in HeLa cells leads to a block in IFN signaling. H5N1 NS1 reduces IFN-inducible tyrosine phosphorylation of STAT1, STAT2 and STAT3 and inhibits the nuclear translocation of phospho-STAT2 and the formation of IFN-inducible STAT1:1-, STAT1:3- and STAT3:3- DNA complexes. Inhibition of IFN-inducible STAT signaling by NS1 in HeLa cells is, in part, a consequence of NS1-mediated inhibition of expression of the IFN receptor subunit, IFNAR1. In support of this NS1-mediated inhibition, we observed a reduction in expression of ifnar1 in ex vivo human non-tumor lung tissues infected with H5N1 and H1N1 viruses. Moreover, H1N1 and H5N1 virus infection of human monocyte-derived macrophages led to inhibition of both ifnar1 and ifnar2 expression. In addition, NS1 expression induces up-regulation of the JAK/STAT inhibitors, SOCS1 and SOCS3. By contrast, treatment of ex vivo human lung tissues with IFN-α results in the up-regulation of a number of IFN-stimulated genes and inhibits both H5N1 and H1N1 virus replication. The data suggest that NS1 can directly interfere with IFN signaling to enhance viral replication, but that treatment with IFN can nevertheless override these inhibitory effects to block H5N1 and H1N1 virus infections.

Influenza H5N1 virus continues to be enzootic in poultry and transmits zoonotically to humans. Although a swine-origin H1N1 virus has emerged to become pandemic, its virulence for humans remains modest in comparison to that seen in zoonotic H5N1 disease. As human respiratory epithelium is the primary target cells for influenza viruses, elucidating the viral tropism and host innate immune responses of influenza H5N1 virus in human bronchial epithelium may help to understand the pathogenesis. Here we established primary culture of undifferentiated and well differentiated normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cells and infected with highly pathogenic influenza H5N1 virus (A/Vietnam/3046/2004) and a seasonal influenza H1N1 virus (A/Hong Kong/54/1998), the viral replication kinetics and cytokine and chemokine responses were compared by qPCR and ELISA. We found that the in vitro culture of the well differentiated NHBE cells acquired the physiological properties of normal human bronchi tissue which express high level of alpha2-6-linked sialic acid receptors and human airway trypsin-like (HAT) protease, in contrast to the low expression in the non-differentiated NHBE cells. When compared to H1N1 virus, the H5N1 virus replicated more efficiently and induced a stronger type I interferon response in the undifferentiated NHBE cells. In contrast, in well differentiated cultures, H5N1 virus replication was less efficient and elicited a lower interferon-beta response in comparison with H1N1 virus. Our data suggest that the differentiation of bronchial epithelial cells has a major influence in cells' permissiveness to human H1N1 and avian H5N1 viruses and the host innate immune responses. The reduced virus replication efficiency partially accounts for the lower interferon-beta responses in influenza H5N1 virus infected well differentiated NHBE cells. Since influenza infection in the bronchial epithelium will lead to tissue damage and associate with the epithelium regeneration, the data generated from the undifferentiated NHBE cultures may also be relevant to disease pathogenesis.

Human disease caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 can lead to a rapidly progressive viral pneumonia leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome. There is increasing evidence from clinical, animal models and in vitro data, which suggests a role for virus-induced cytokine dysregulation in contributing to the pathogenesis of human H5N1 disease. The key target cells for the virus in the lung are the alveolar epithelium and alveolar macrophages, and we have shown that, compared to seasonal human influenza viruses, equivalent infecting doses of H5N1 viruses markedly up-regulate pro-inflammatory cytokines in both primary cell types in vitro. Whether this H5N1-induced dysregulation of host responses is driven by qualitative (i.e activation of unique host pathways in response to H5N1) or quantitative differences between seasonal influenza viruses is unclear. Here we used microarrays to analyze and compare the gene expression profiles in primary human macrophages at 1, 3, and 6 h after infection with H5N1 virus or low-pathogenic seasonal influenza A (H1N1) virus. We found that host responses to both viruses are qualitatively similar with the activation of nearly identical biological processes and pathways. However, in comparison to seasonal H1N1 virus, H5N1 infection elicits a quantitatively stronger host inflammatory response including type I interferon (IFN) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha genes. A network-based analysis suggests that the synergy between IFN-beta and TNF-alpha results in an enhanced and sustained IFN and pro-inflammatory cytokine response at the early stage of viral infection that may contribute to the viral pathogenesis and this is of relevance to the design of novel therapeutic strategies for H5N1 induced respiratory disease.

Between 2003 and 2005, highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses caused large scale outbreaks in poultry in the Ho Chi Minh City area in Vietnam. We studied the prevalence of antibodies against H5N1 in poultry workers and cullers who were active in the program in Ho Chi Minh City in 2004 and 2005.Single sera from 500 poultry workers and poultry cullers exposed to infected birds were tested for antibodies to avian influenza H5N1, using microneutralization assays and hemagglutination inhibition assay with horse blood. All sera tested negative using microneutralization tests. Three samples showed a 1ratio80 titer in the hemagglutination inhibition assay.This study provides additional support for the low transmissibility of clade 1 H5N1 to humans, but limited transmission to highly exposed persons cannot be excluded given the presence of low antibody titers in some individuals.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus lineage has undergone extensive genetic reassortment with viruses from different sources to produce numerous H5N1 genotypes, and also developed into multiple genetically distinct sublineages in China. From there, the virus has spread to over 60 countries. The ecological success of this virus in diverse species of both poultry and wild birds with frequent introduction to humans suggests that it is a likely source of the next human pandemic. Therefore, the evolutionary and ecological characteristics of its emergence from wild birds into poultry are of considerable interest. Here, we apply the latest analytical techniques to infer the early evolutionary dynamics of H5N1 virus in the population from which it emerged (wild birds and domestic poultry). By estimating the time of most recent common ancestors of each gene segment, we show that the H5N1 prototype virus was likely introduced from wild birds into poultry as a non-reassortant low pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus and was not generated by reassortment in poultry. In contrast, more recent H5N1 genotypes were generated locally in aquatic poultry after the prototype virus (A/goose/Guangdong/1/96) introduction occurred, i.e., they were not a result of additional emergence from wild birds. We show that the H5N1 virus was introduced into Indonesia and Vietnam 3-6 months prior to detection of the first outbreaks in those countries. Population dynamics analyses revealed a rapid increase in the genetic diversity of A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 lineage viruses from mid-1999 to early 2000. Our results suggest that the transmission of reassortant viruses through the mixed poultry population in farms and markets in China has selected HPAI H5N1 viruses that are well adapted to multiple hosts and reduced the interspecies transmission barrier of those viruses.

There are sparse data on whether non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce the spread of influenza. We implemented a study of the feasibility and efficacy of face masks and hand hygiene to reduce influenza transmission among Hong Kong household members.We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial of households (composed of at least 3 members) where an index subject presented with influenza-like-illness of

Cellular localization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in the lungs of patients with SARS is important in confirming the etiological association of the virus with disease as well as in understanding the pathogenesis of the disease. To our knowledge, there have been no comprehensive studies investigating viral infection at the cellular level in humans.We collected the largest series of fatal cases of SARS with autopsy material to date by merging the pathological material from two regions involved in the 2003 worldwide SARS outbreak in Hong Kong, China, and Toronto, Canada. We developed a monoclonal antibody against the SARS-CoV nucleoprotein and used it together with in situ hybridization (ISH) to analyze the autopsy lung tissues of 32 patients with SARS from Hong Kong and Toronto. We compared the results of these assays with the pulmonary pathologies and the clinical course of illness for each patient. SARS-CoV nucleoprotein and RNA were detected by immunohistochemistry and ISH, respectively, primarily in alveolar pneumocytes and, less frequently, in macrophages. Such localization was detected in four of the seven patients who died within two weeks of illness onset, and in none of the 25 patients who died later than two weeks after symptom onset.The pulmonary alveolar epithelium is the chief target of SARS-CoV, with macrophages infected subsequently. Viral replication appears to be limited to the first two weeks after symptom onset, with little evidence of continued widespread replication after this period. If antiviral therapy is considered for future treatment, it should be focused on this two-week period of acute clinical disease.

Abstract In randomized controlled trials of influenza vaccination, 550 children received trivalent-inactivated influenza vaccine, permitting us to explore relationship between vaccine response and host single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 23 candidate genes with adjustment of multiple testing. For host SNPs in TLR7–1817G/T (rs5741880), genotype GT was associated with lower odds (OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.53) of have post-vaccination hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) titers ≥40, compared with genotype GG and TT combined under the over-dominant model. For host SNPs in TLR8–129G/C (rs3764879), genotype GT was associated with lower odds (OR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.28, 0.80) of have post vaccination HAI titers ≥40 compared with genotype GG and AA combined under the over-dominant model. Our results could contribute to the development of better vaccines that may offer improved protection to all recipients.