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Background Leprosy incidence remained at around 200,000 new cases globally for the last decade. Current strategies to reduce the number of new patients include early detection and providing post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to at-risk populations. Because leprosy is distributed unevenly, it is crucial to identify high-risk clusters of leprosy cases for targeting interventions. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methodology can be used to optimize leprosy control activities by identifying clustering of leprosy cases and determining optimal target populations for PEP. Methods The geolocations of leprosy cases registered from 2014 to 2018 in Pasuruan and Pamekasan (Indonesia) were collected and tested for spatial autocorrelation with the Moran’s I statistic. We did a hotspot analysis using the Heatmap tool of QGIS to identify clusters of leprosy cases in both areas. Fifteen cluster settings were compared, varying the heatmap radius (i.e., 500 m, 1000 m, 1500 m, 2000 m, or 2500 m) and the density of clustering (low, moderate, and high). For each cluster setting, we calculated the number of cases in clusters, the size of the cluster (km2), and the total population targeted for PEP under various strategies. Results The distribution of cases was more focused in Pasuruan (Moran’s I = 0.44) than in Pamekasan (0.27). The proportion of total cases within identified clusters increased with heatmap radius and ranged from 3% to almost 100% in both areas. The proportion of the population in clusters targeted for PEP decreased with heatmap radius from > 100% to 5% in high and from 88 to 3% in moderate and low density clusters. We have developed an example of a practical guideline to determine optimal cluster settings based on a given PEP strategy, distribution of cases, resources available, and proportion of population targeted for PEP. Conclusion Policy and operational decisions related to leprosy control programs can be guided by a hotspot analysis which aid in identifying high-risk clusters and estimating the number of people targeted for prophylactic interventions.

Additional file 1. Weekly incidence detail reports. Table S1. Number of received illness incident reports from nursing home units per study week. Table S2. Number of cases (incidence) of a HAI per unit per week (intervention n=1612 weeks, control n = 1477 weeks).

Additional file 3: Figure S4. Siaya Clinical Research Annex.

Additional file 1: Figure S2. Community engagement.

Additional file 2: Figure S3. Logistics.

Additional file 4: Figure S5. Mobile Field Site.

SUMMARYGastrointestinal and respiratory infections in children attending daycare centres (DCCs) are common and compliance with hand hygiene (HH) guidelines to prevent infections is generally low. An intervention was developed to increase HH compliance and reduce infections in DCCs. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the effectiveness of this intervention on HH compliance. The intervention was evaluated in a two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial in 71 DCCs in The Netherlands. Thirty-six DCCs received the intervention including: (1) HH products; (2) training about HH guidelines; (3) two team training sessions aimed at goal setting and formulating HH improvement activities; and (4) reminders and cues for action (posters/stickers). Intervention DCCs were compared to 35 control DCCs that continued usual practice. HH compliance of caregivers and children was observed at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up. Using multilevel logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained for the intervention effect. Of 795 caregivers, 5042 HH opportunities for caregivers and 5606 opportunities for supervising children's HH were observed. At 1 month follow-up caregivers' compliance in intervention DCCs was 66% vs. 43% in control DCCs (OR 6·33, 95% CI 3·71–10·80), and at 6 months 59% vs. 44% (OR 4·13, 95% CI 2·33–7·32). No effect of the intervention was found on supervising children's HH (36% vs. 32%; OR 0·64, 95% CI 0·18–2·33). In conclusion, HH compliance of caregivers increased due to the intervention, therefore dissemination of the intervention can be considered.

SUMMARYInfections are common in children attending daycare centres (DCCs). We evaluated the effect of a hand hygiene (HH) intervention for caregivers on the incidence of gastrointestinal and respiratory infections in children. The intervention was evaluated in a two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial. Thirty-six DCCs received the intervention including HH products, training sessions, and posters/stickers. Thirty-five control DCCs continued usual practice. Incidence of episodes of diarrhoea and the common cold in children was monitored by parents during 6 months. Using multilevel Poisson regression, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained. Diarrhoeal incidence was monitored in 545 children for 91 937 days. During follow-up, the incidence was 3·0 episodes per child-year in intervention DCCsvs.3·4 in control DCCs (IRR 0·90, 95% CI 0·73–1·11). Incidence of the common cold was monitored in 541 children for 91 373 days. During follow-up, the incidence was 8·2 episodes per child-year in intervention DCCsvs.7·4 in control DCCs (IRR 1·07, 95% CI 0·97–1·19). In this study, no evidence for an effect of the intervention was demonstrated on the incidence of episodes of diarrhoea and the common cold.

The national strategies on leprosy control/elimination adopted by India, Nepal and Indonesia. (DOC 35Â kb)

Staff Interview Questionnaire for Phase I and II. (DOCX 15Â kb)

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is an important health problem in the Turkish Dutch. Screening is necessary for detection and prevention of HBV. We aimed to identify social-cognitive and socio-cultural determinants of HBV-screening intention among Turkish Dutch. A cross-sectional survey was carried out amongst 335 Turkish Dutch, aged 16-40 years. Respondents showed favorable scores for the potential determinants of HBV-screening. Attitude, perceived behaviour control, social support and social norm, and the level of satisfaction with Dutch health care proved to be directly associated with screening intention. Relevant socio-cultural beliefs were shame, stigma, the association of screening with sexuality and family values. Persons with lower screening intentions had lower scores for attitude, perceived behaviour control, social support and subjective norms, but scored higher for feelings of shame and stigma regarding hepatitis B. This study shows how cultural values and social-cognitive factors are related to HBV-screening intention.

Objective To investigate prevalence and risk factors of syphilis infection among female sex workers (FSWs) in Shenzhen, China. Methods Observational study among (2009–2012) 1653 FSWs recruited by venue-based sampling using questionnaire-based interviews for socio-demographics, behaviours and syphilis testing results. Logistic regression was used to assess risk factors of syphilis infection. Results The overall syphilis prevalence was 4.7%, showing a slightly decreasing trend. Factors significantly associated with syphilis infection were inconsistent condom use (OR = 1.87, P = 0.015), illicit drug use (OR = 5.45, P 0.05). Conclusions Syphilis is still common among FSWs in Shenzhen, China. Current comprehensive prevention programmes (e.g. condom promotion and peer education) should be continued to maintain and increase safe sexual practices and to reduce illicit drug use among FSWs. Expanding point-of-care syphilis screening programmes may be an important strategy for early diagnosis. We recommend timely and effective treatment programmes to be linked to such screening programmes. Objectif Determiner la prevalence et les facteurs de risque de l'infection a la syphilis chez les professionnelles du sexe (PS) a Shenzhen, en Chine. Methodes Etude observationnelle de 2009 a 2012 chez 1653 PS recrutees par echantillonnage, basee sur le lieu, au moyen d'interviews par questionnaire pour les caracteristiques sociodemographiques, les comportements et les resultats des tests de la syphilis. La regression logistique a ete utilisee pour evaluer les facteurs de risque de la syphilis. Resultats La prevalence globale de la syphilis etait de 4.7%, montrant une tendance legerement a la baisse. Les facteurs significativement associes a l'infection par la syphilis etaient l'utilisation irreguliere du preservatif (OR = 1.87; P = 0.015), l'utilisation de drogues (OR = 5.45; P 0.05). Conclusions La syphilis est encore frequente chez les PS a Shenzhen, en Chine. Les programmes complets actuels de prevention (par exemple, la promotion du preservatif et l’education par les pairs) devraient etre poursuivis afin de maintenir et accroitre des pratiques sexuelles sures et de reduire la consommation de drogues chez les PS. L'expansion des programmes de depistage de la syphilis sur les lieux des soins peut etre une strategie importante pour le diagnostic precoce. Nous recommandons que des programmes de traitement opportuns et efficaces soient lies a ces programmes de depistage. Objetivo Investigar la prevalencia y los factores de riesgo de la infeccion por sifilis entre trabajadoras sexuales femeninas (TSFs) en Shenzhen, China. Metodos Estudio observacional entre el 2009–2012 de 1653 TSFs reclutadas mediante un muestreo en el lugar de trabajo, utilizando entrevistas basadas en un cuestionario con datos sociodemograficos, de comportamientos y resultados de la prueba de sifilis. Se utilizo una regresion logistica para evaluar los factores de riesgo de infeccion por sifilis. Resultados La prevalencia total de sifilis era del 4.7%, con una ligera tendencia a la disminucion. Los factores significativamente asociados con la infeccion por sifilis eran el uso inconsistente del condon (OR = 1.87, P = 0.015), el uso ilicito de drogas (OR = 5.45, P 0.05). Conclusiones La sifilis continua siendo comun entre las TSFs de Shenzhen, China. Los programas integrales de prevencion (ej. promocion del uso del condon y educacion de las TSFs por sus companeras) deberian continuar para mantener y aumentar las practicas sexuales seguras y reducir el uso ilicito de drogas entre las TSFs. Expandir lo programas de deteccion de sifilis en los lugares de atencion podria ser una estrategia importante para el diagnostico temprano. Recomendamos que los programas de tratamiento temprano y efectivos vayan unidos a estos programas de deteccion.

SUMMARYSocioeconomic and culturally defined social contact patterns are expected to be an important determinant in the continuing transmission ofMycobacterium lepraein leprosy-endemic areas. In a case-control study in two districts in Bangladesh, we assessed the association between social contact patterns and the risk of acquiring clinical leprosy. Social contacts of 90 recently diagnosed patients were compared to those of 199 controls. Leprosy was associated with a more intensive social contact pattern in the home [odds ratio (OR) 1·09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·00–1·19,P = 0·043] and in the nearby neighbourhood (OR 1·07, 95% CI 1·03–1·11,P = 0·001). Although it is known thatM. lepraespreads most easily within households of infected persons, in endemic areas social contacts within the neighbourhood, village or urban ward, also appear to be important for transmission. We advise that disease control measures in leprosy-endemic areas should not be limited to households, but include high-risk groups in the nearby neighbourhood of patients.

Item does not contain fulltext Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death in developing countries and an important health threat in the industrialised world. Ideally, interventions in TB control are effective, acceptable and economically attractive. This review summarises all economic evaluation studies of TB control in high-income countries over the last 20 years. We provide indications on the relative economic attractiveness of TB interventions based on the reported conclusions. A total of 118 studies using different economic evaluation methodologies on a wide range of TB interventions are included. Most studies (70%) were from North America, and about half (47%) concerned interventions among the general population. Even though the large majority of studies (85%) aimed at preventing active TB disease, 44% of these ignored the prevention of secondary infections, thereby under- estimating the benefits of the intervention. Choosing a health care instead of a societal perspective (92% vs. 8%) further underestimated the benefits. Moreover, 74 studies (62%) disregarded discounting, and for 9 of them this led to overestimated future costs. In all, 66% of the studies reported conclusions favouring the evaluated intervention, which is modest given that a publishing bias towards favourable results is to be expected. In conclusion, we demonstrate that many studies in this review have put the evaluated TB intervention at a disadvantage by the choice of methodology, i. e., underestimating benefits and overestimating costs. This may have led to an overly conservative approach to the introduction of new interventions in TB control. 01 december 2011

Microsimulation of infectious diseases requires simulation of many life histories of interacting individuals. In particular, relatively rare infections such as leprosy need to be studied in very large populations. Computation time increases disproportionally with the size of the simulated population. We present a novel method, MUSIDH, an acronym for multiple use of simulated demographic histories, to reduce computation time. Demographic history refers to the processes of birth, death and all other demographic events that should be unrelated to the natural course of an infection, thus non-fatal infections. MUSIDH attaches a fixed number of infection histories to each demographic history, and these infection histories interact as if being the infection history of separate individuals. With two examples, mumps and leprosy, we show that the method can give a factor 50 reduction in computation time at the cost of a small loss in precision. The largest reductions are obtained for rare infections with complex demographic histories. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

SUMMARYThe aim of this study was to describe a systematic process of record-linkage, cross-validation, case-ascertainment and capture–recapture analysis to assess the quality of tuberculosis registers and to estimate the completeness of notification of incident tuberculosis cases in The Netherlands in 1998. After record-linkage and cross-validation 1499 tuberculosis patients were identified, of whom 1298 were notified, resulting in an observed under-notification of 13·4%. After adjustment for possible imperfect record-linkage and remaining false-positive hospital cases observed under-notification was 7·3%. Log-linear capture–recapture analysis initially estimated a total number of 2053 (95% CI 1871–2443) tuberculosis cases, resulting in an estimated under-notification of 36·8%. After adjustment for possible imperfect record-linkage and remaining false-positive hospital cases various capture–recapture models estimated under-notification at 13·6%. One of the reasons for the higher than expected estimated under-notification in a country with a well-organized system of tuberculosis control might be that some tuberculosis cases, e.g. extrapulmonary tuberculosis, are managed by clinicians less familiar with notification of infectious diseases. This study demonstrates the possible impact of violation of assumptions underlying capture–recapture analysis, especially the perfect record-linkage, perfect positive predictive value and absent three-way interaction assumptions.

Background: A European concerted action (the EuroNatal study) investigated differences in perinatal mortality between countries of Europe. This report describes the methods used in the EuroNatal international audit and discusses the validity of the results. Methods: Perinatal deaths between 1993 and 1998 in regions of ten European countries were identified. The categories of death chosen for the study were singleton fetal deaths at 28 or more weeks of gestational age, all intrapartum deaths at 28 or more weeks of gestational age and neonatal deaths at 34 or more weeks of gestational age. Deaths with major congenital anomalies were excluded. An international audit panel used explicit criteria to review all cases, which were blinded for region. Subjective interpretation was used in cases of events or interventions where explicit criteria did not exist. Suboptimal factors were identified in the antenatal, intrapartum and neonatal periods, and classified as 'maternal/social', due to 'infrastructure/service organization', or due to 'professional care delivery'. The contribution of each suboptimal factor to the fatal outcome was listed and consensus was reached on a final grade using a procedure that included correspondence and plenary meetings. Results: In all regions combined, 90% of all known or estimated cases in the selected categories were included in the audit. In total, 1619 cases of perinatal death were audited. Consensus was reached in 1543 (95%) cases. In 75% of all cases, the grade was based on explicit criteria. In the remaining cases, consensus was reached within subpanels without reference to predefined criteria. There was reasonable to good agreement between and within subpanels, and within panel members. Conclusions: The international audit procedure proved feasible and led to consistent results. The results that relate to suboptimal care will need to be studied in depth in order to reach conclusions about their implications for assessing the quality of perinatal care in the individual regions.

SUMMARYWe argue that the spread of unhealthy behaviour shows marked similarities with infectious diseases. It is therefore interesting and challenging to use infectious disease methodologies for studying the spread and control of unhealthy behaviour. This would be a great addition to current methods, because it allows taking into account the dynamics of individual interactions and the social environment at large. In particular, the application of individual-based modelling holds great promise to address some major public health questions.

Objectives This study concerns the possible effect of practice of prenatal screening of congenital anomalies followed by termination of pregnancy on the perinatal mortality between European countries.Methods Data of nine region-specific EUROCAT registries from five European countries were used to compare the pregnancy termination rate and perinatal mortality due to congenital anomalies between the registries. The impact of pregnancy terminations on the perinatal mortality rate was estimated using a calculated lethality for each congenital anomaly in the hypothetical case that no pregnancy terminations had been performed and was expressed in the 'natural' perinatal mortality rate.Results There are large differences between the EUROCAT registries in the number of pregnancy terminations for congenital anomalies. The difference between the 'natural' and regular perinatal mortality rate vary between 3.7 and 14.1 per 10000 live births and stillbirths. The difference is greater in regions where prenatal screening is more common than in regions where this is not common.Conclusion Differences in practice of prenatal screening and termination of pregnancy of congenital anomalies contribute to the variations in the overall perinatal mortality rate between European regions and countries. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

To assess among parents longitudinal predictors of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake for their daughters, random samples of parents were identified via municipal services and sent baseline questionnaires in June 2009 and follow-up questionnaires in November 2011 after their uptake decision. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis was used to assess whether demographic characteristics, and affective and social cognitive factors, predicted uptake at follow-up. Response rates of the baseline and follow-up questionnaire were 29.8% (1762/5918) and 74.3% (793/1067), respectively. Uptake was predicted by a later (2011) versus earlier (2010) decision about uptake as HPV vaccination implementation [odds ratio (OR) 2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-5.52], anticipated regret about no uptake (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.08-1.89) and intention (OR 2.61; 95% CI 1.47-4.61). There was an interaction between ambivalence and attitude (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.14-2.47); parents with a positive attitude and a high ambivalence toward vaccination were more likely to have their daughter vaccinated than parents with a positive attitude and a low ambivalence. An informed choice about uptake (5/7 correct items) was made by 44%. In conclusion, uptake was predicted by intention, a later (2011) versus earlier (2010) decision and by anticipated regret about no uptake. Decisions regarding new vaccines are difficult to make, we recommend a well-balanced implementation process.

In this paper the concepts, objectives, design, and data analysis procedures of the EuroNatal study are described. This study started in 1996 and is a concerted action including 14 countries in Europe. The EuroNatal study aims at determining the validity of national perinatal mortality rates as an outcome indicator for the quality of antenatal and perinatal care. It is based on a conceptual model describing the relationships between differences in quality of antenatal and perinatal care, maternal and infant risk factors, variation in applied definitions, reliability of registration procedures and practices, and the outcome in terms of "true" and "observed" differences in perinatal mortality. In the first part of the study data is collected at national and aggregate level; in the second part data is collected retrospectively on individual cases of perinatal mortality in a regional sample area. Analysis of the individual cases of perinatal mortality will be by means of a perinatal audit conducted by an international expert panel. The project builds upon the work done by the participants in their respective countries. By applying common research protocols, international comparability of data collection will be enhanced and will help to create a common body of knowledge in the area of perinatal epidemiology and perinatal care. Comparison between countries is likely to lead to new insights into the strengths and weaknesses of antenatal and perinatal care systems of individual countries.

The Rotterdam region, the Netherlands, 1995-2006.To identify factors associated with the high tuberculosis (TB) case rate in an urban area.Municipalities were divided into urban and semi-urban/rural municipalities. We compared the characteristics of TB cases and stratified case rates according to age group, immigrant status and place and time of infection between the two areas.The TB case rate in urban municipalities was 3.8-fold higher than in semi-urban/rural municipalities. After stratification for country of birth, the rate ratios were lower (1.7 for immigrants and 2.8 for non-immigrants). Immigrants had most frequently acquired their infection abroad (47% of urban and 62% of semi-urban/rural immigrant cases). In 40% of urban cases and 27% of semi-urban/rural cases, the infection was recently acquired in the Netherlands, translating into a 5.7-fold higher recent transmission case rate for the urban population.The high urban TB case rate was related to the high proportion of urban immigrants who frequently reactivated an infection acquired abroad. Recent transmission also contributed to a substantial part of the TB caseload in urban municipalities among both urban immigrants and non-immigrants. The authors propose a package of targeted interventions to address the identified factors associated with the high urban TB case rate.

The frequency of and risk factors for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) transmission from a MRSA index person to household contacts were assessed in this prospective study. Between January 2005 and December 2007, 62 newly diagnosed MRSA index persons (46 patients and 16 health care workers) and their 160 household contacts were included in the study analysis. Transmission of MRSA from an index person to household contacts occurred in nearly half of the cases (47%; n = 29). These 29 index persons together had 84 household contacts, of which two-thirds (67%; n = 56) became MRSA positive. Prolonged exposure time to MRSA at home was a significant risk factor for MRSA transmission to household contacts. In addition, MRSA colonization at least in the throat, younger age, and eczema in index persons were significantly associated with MRSA transmission; the presence of wounds was negatively associated with MRSA transmission. Furthermore, an increased number of household contacts and being the partner of a MRSA index person were household-related risk factors for MRSA acquisition from the index person. No predominant pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) type was observed to be transmitted more frequently than other PFGE types. To date, screening household contacts and providing MRSA eradication therapy to those found positive simultaneously with the index person is not included in the “search-and-destroy” policy. We suggest including both in MRSA prevention guidelines, as this may reduce further spread of MRSA.

The influenza pandemics of the 20th century, the SARS epidemic in 2002/03 and the growing number of human cases infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus clearly demonstrate that the threat of new pandemics is very real. These events have intensified pandemic prevention and control activities worldwide. "SARSControl" is a three-year project funded by the European Commission with the objective to aid European member states in the public health management of new emerging infections. This article summarises the main research results and recommendations arising from this project.The reports and papers published in the SARSControl project form the basis of this article. In addition, a literature search for SARS and pandemic influenza was conducted and information on pandemic planning and management guidelines obtained from the WHO and EU websites. The project results are discussed in this context.A lack of knowledge and delayed international communication resulted in the rapid spread of SARS, highlighting the importance of a global system for rapid and transparent information transfer. Epidemiological and economic modelling studies have shown that, in comparison to travel restrictions, applying intervention measures to interrupt local transmission within a country and investing into vaccine research and anti-viral stockpiling, is a more cost-effective and efficient use of resources for the containment of pandemics. A study investigating the perceived threat associated with pandemics showed that the subjective risk perception of people varies among countries. This influences human behaviour and should hence be considered during risk communication and implementation of pandemic control measures.The basic prerequisites of an efficient pandemic management are operationalisable pandemic plans, subjected to regular exercises, backed by adequate resources and a sound health-care infrastructure. At international level cross-border co-operation and information exchange on infection control is the key to pandemic mitigation and containment. Strengthening surveillance systems at the international level, to allow the timely monitoring of infectious agents and outbreaks is essential. Transferring such outbreak information in real time into mathematical models and the resulting essential epidemiological information to policy makers would facilitate a more efficient use of scarce resources. Involvement of the public in decisions regarding the implementation of restrictive control measures which often curtail individual liberty is necessary for the acceptance and ultimate success of pandemic control.

To gain insight into hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission in the Netherlands.Descriptive.During 2004, epidemiological data and blood samples (if available) were collected for all reported cases of acute HBV infections in the Netherlands. Following DNA isolation and amplification a 648 base pairs fragment of the HBV S gene was sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. The sequencing details were also linked to epidemiological information.In 2004, 291 cases ofacute HBV infections were reported. Blood samples were received from 171 patients (59%), and the genotype could be determined for 158 patients (54%). 6 genotypes were identified: A (64%), B (3%), C (3%), D (21%), E (5%) and F (4%). Of all patients with genotype A, 52% had been infected via homosexual or bisexual contact and 16% via heterosexual contact. Of all patients with genotype D, 42% had been infected via heterosexual contact and 15% via homosexual or bisexual contact. The genotype A cluster was extremely homogeneous with many identical sequences, while genotype B-E clusters were more heterogeneous. 4 identical sequences were found within genotype F, but the patients could not be epidemiologically linked.Sexual transmission, particularly via homosexual or bisexual contact in men, formed the most important risk factor for acquiring an acute HBV infection. Genotype A was predominant in the Netherlands, especially among homosexual or bisexual men. Most infections within genotype D occurred as a result of heterosexual contact. The results show that there was ongoing transmission of HBV in homosexual or bisexual men, while in heterosexuals more cases of new introduction were seen, possibly via chronic carriers from areas where HBV is endemic.

Background An uneven spatial distribution of leprosy can be caused by the influence of geography on the distribution of risk factors over the area, or by population characteristics that are heterogeneously distributed over the area. We studied the distribution of leprosy cases detected by a control program to identify spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of occurrence and to search for environmental risk factors for leprosy. Methods The houses of 11,060 leprosy cases registered in the control area during a 15-year period (1989–2003) were traced back, added to a geographic database (GIS), and plotted on digital maps. We looked for clusters of cases in space and time. Furthermore, relationships with the proximity to geographic features, such as town center, roads, rivers, and clinics, were studied. Results Several spatio-temporal clusters were observed for voluntarily reported cases. The cases within and outside clusters did not differ in age at detection, percentage with multibacillary leprosy, or sex ratio. There was no indication of the spread from one point to other parts of the district, indicating a spatially stable endemic situation during the study period. The overall risk of leprosy in the district was not associated with roads, rivers, and leprosy clinics. The risk was highest within 1 kilometer of town centers and decreased with distance from town centers. Conclusion The association of a risk of leprosy with the proximity to towns indicates that rural towns may play an important role in the epidemiology of leprosy in this district. Further research on the role of towns, particularly in rural areas, is warranted.

We conducted a population-based study in the Rotterdam region of The Netherlands to determine the place and time of infection of tuberculosis (TB) cases using conventional epidemiological and genotyping information. In particular, we focused on the extent of misclassification if genotyping was not combined with epidemiological information. Cases were divided into those with a unique mycobacterial DNA fingerprint, a clustering fingerprint, and an unknown fingerprint. We developed transmission classification trees for each category to determine whether patients were infected in a foreign country or recently (≤2 years) or remotely (>2 years) infected in The Netherlands. Of all TB cases during the 12-year study period, 38% were infected in a foreign country, 36% resulted from recent transmission in The Netherlands, and 18% resulted from remote infection in The Netherlands, while in the remaining cases (9%) either the time or place of infection could not be determined. The conventional epidemiological data suggested that at least 29% of clustered cases were not part of recent chains of transmission. Cases with unknown fingerprints, almost all culture negative, relatively frequently had confirmed epidemiological links with a recent pulmonary TB case in The Netherlands and were more often identified by contact tracing. Our findings highlight the idea that genotyping should be combined with conventional epidemiological investigation to establish the place and time of infection of TB cases as accurately as possible. A standardized way of classifying TB into recently, remotely, and foreign-acquired disease provides indicators for surveillance and TB control program performance that can be used to decide on interventions and allocation of resources.

SUMMARYTruncated models are indirect methods to estimate the size of a hidden population which, in contrast to the capture–recapture method, can be used on a single information source. We estimated the coverage of a tuberculosis screening programme among illicit drug users and homeless persons with a mobile digital X-ray unit between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2005 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, using truncated models. The screening programme reached about two-third of the estimated target population at least once annually. The intended coverage (at least two chest X-rays per person per year) was about 23%. We conclude that simple truncated models can be used relatively easily on available single-source routine data to estimate the size of a population of illicit drug users and homeless persons. We assumed that the most likely overall bias in this study would be overestimation and therefore the coverage of the targeted mobile tuberculosis screening programme would be higher.

Chlamydia trachomatis screening is being considered in the Netherlands, but policy recommendations are hampered by the lack of population-based data. We studied the prevalence of chlamydia infection in 15-29-year-old women and men in a national representative sample of 21,000 inhabitants of rural and urban areas in the Netherlands. Of this sample, 41% responded by sending in urine and an answered questionnaire, while 11% returned a refusal card. The overall prevalence of chlamydia infection was 2.0% (CI: 1.7-2.3); 2.5% (CI: 2.0-3.0) in women and 1.5% (1.1-1.8) in men. Chlamydia prevalence was significantly greater in very highly urbanized areas (3.2%, CI: 2.4-4.0) compared to rural areas (0.6%, CI: 0.1-1.1). In very highly urbanized areas the greatest prevalence was found among 15-19-year-old women (4.3%) and among 25-29-year-old men (4.2%). A risk profile could be determined and a prediction rule was developed. These data suggest that nationwide systematic screening is not indicated in the Netherlands and that targeted approaches are a better option. Roll-out of selective screening is recommended.

Background Screening and active case finding for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is recommended to prevent reproductive morbidity. However insight in community prevalence of gonococcal infections and co-infections with Neisseria gonorrhoea (NG) is lacking. Methods Nested study within a large population-based Chlamydia Screening Pilot among 21.000 persons 15–29 year. All CT-positive (166) and a random sample of 605 CT-negative specimens were as well tested for gonococcal infection. Results Overall Chlamydia prevalence in the Pilot was 2.0% (95% CI: 1.7–2.3), highest in very urban settings (3.2%; 95% CI: 2.4–4.0) and dependent of several risk factors. Four gonococcal infections were found among 166 participants with CT infection (4/166 = 2.4%; 95% CI: 0.1%–4.7%). All four had several risk factors and reported symptoms. Among 605 CT-negative persons, no infection with NG could be confirmed. Conclusion A low rate of co-infections and a very low community prevalence of gonococcal infections were found in this population based screening programme among young adults in the Netherlands. Population screening for asymptomatic gonococcal infections is not indicated in the Netherlands. Although co-infection with gonorrhoea among CT-positives is dependent on symptoms and well-known algorithms for elevated risks, we advise to test all CT-positives also for NG, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic.

Testing for Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is less accepted in people of non-Dutch ethnicity than Dutch people. We offered additional Ct and gonorrhoea testing through our outreach sexually transmitted infections (STI) prevention programme to determine whether this intervention strategy is feasible and efficient.Outreach workers offered test kits to women and men aged 15-29 years, in group and street settings and in a vocational training school. Demographic and behavioural data and characteristics of non-responders were assessed. DNA was isolated (using the MagNA Pure LC system) from urine and tested using the Cobas Amplicor test.Among sexually active people, the test rate differed by venue (groups 80% (74/93), school 73% (49/67), street 17% (49/287); p0.001). There was no difference in test rate between group and school settings by gender or ethnicity. Ct positivity was 14.5% (25/172); women 20.2% (20/99) versus men 6.8% (5/73); p = 0.01. Ct positivity was highest at school (24.5% (12/49)) and among Surinamese/Antillean people (17.5% (14/80)). Treatment rate of index cases and current partners was 100% and 78%, respectively.We found a high acceptance of chlamydia testing in group and school settings in both men and women of non-Dutch ethnicity. The prevalence indicates that we have accessed high risk people. Outreach testing and is feasible and most efficient in school and group settings. School screening may have an impact on community prevalence of Ct infections.

Existing knowledge on risk factors for the development of clinical leprosy among contacts of known leprosy patients is reviewed with the aim to identify factors associated with leprosy among contacts that have potential for developing effective targeted interventions in leprosy control. Different definitions of 'contact' have been used and most studies on this subject were among so-called household members. Yet several studies indicate that contacts found in other places than the household are also at risk of developing leprosy. The type of leprosy and the bacterial index are the main patient-related factors involved in transmission, but also contacts of PB patients have a higher risk of contracting leprosy as compared to the general population. The most important contact-related factors are the closeness and intensity of the contact and inherited susceptibility, while the role of age and sex of the contacts is not clear. The role of socio-economic factors is also vague. The significance of immunological and molecular markers in relation to risk of transmitting or developing leprosy is not yet fully understood, but there is an indication that contacts who are sero-positive for anti-PGL-I antibodies are at increased risk of developing clinical leprosy. The presence of a BCG scar is likely to be related to a lower risk. Analogies with tuberculosis suggest that the 'stone-in-the-pond' approach to control may be applicable to leprosy too. Sputum smear negative tuberculosis patients are known to spread the bacteria to others. This analogy strengthens the suggestion that the contacts of paucibacillary leprosy cases should also be included in contact tracing and examination. It is concluded that targeted interventions should be aimed at close contacts of both MB and PB patients inside and outside the household, particularly when genetically related.

Objectives: Chlamydia trachomatis (Chlamydia) is the most prevalent sexually transmitted bacterial infection and can cause considerable reproductive morbidity in women. Chlamydia screening programmes have been considered but policy recommendations are hampered by the lack of population based data. This paper describes the prevalence of Chlamydia in 15–29 year old women and men in rural and urban areas, as determined through systematic population based screening organised by the Municipal Public Health Services (MHS), and discusses the implications of this screening strategy for routine implementation. Methods: Stratified national probability survey according to “area address density” (AAD). 21 000 randomly selected women and men in four regions, aged 15–29 years received a home sampling kit. Urine samples were returned by mail and tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Treatment was via the general practitioner, STI clinic, or MHS clinic. Results: 41% (8383) responded by sending in urine and questionnaire. 11% (2227) returned a refusal card. Non-responders included both higher and lower risk categories. Chlamydia prevalence was significantly lower in rural areas (0.6%, 95% CI 0.1 to 1.1) compared with very highly urbanised areas (3.2%, 95% CI 2.4 to 4.0). Overall prevalence was 2.0% (95% CI 1.7 to 2.3): 2.5% (95% CI 2.0 to 3.0%) in women and 1.5% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.8) in men. Of all cases 91% were treated. Infection was associated with degree of urbanisation, ethnicity, number of sex partners, and symptoms. Conclusion: This large, population based study found very low prevalence in rural populations, suggesting that nationwide systematic screening is not indicated in the Netherlands and that targeted approaches are a better option. Further analysis of risk profiles will contribute to determine how selective screening can be done.

Evaluation of the Rotterdam guideline for referring patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections from primary to specialist care for diagnosis and treatment.Retrospective.Whether or not the guideline was followed correctly was determined in patients with chronic hepatitis B who were reported to the Municipal Health Service (GGD) in Rotterdam in 1998 and 1999. This was done by a study of their files and by questioning their general practitioners by phone.During the study period, 376 cases of chronic hepatitis B were seen at the GGD; 32% of the patients dropped out during the referral trajectory. Drop-out took place at three different times: 13% during the process of deciding whether the patient should be referred according to the guideline, 12% during the consultation period at the GGD, and 7% after consultation at the GGD and before first contact with a specialist (via referral from the general practitioner). The reasons for dropping out were either procedural factors, such as missing information in the patient file and unclear management by the GGD, and personal factors such as failure of the general practitioner or the patient to comply with the recommendations.The guideline for the referral of chronic hepatitis B patients functioned well but implementation can be improved, since some patients did not reach the specialist. Improvement would be made possible by shortening the referral chain and by giving more information to patients and general practitioners about hepatitis B and its potential consequences.

Item does not contain fulltext BACKGROUND: To determine: 1) whether substandard factors were present in cases of perinatal death, and to what extent another course of action might have resulted in a better outcome, and 2) whether there were differences in the frequency of substandard factors by level of care, particularly between midwives and gynecologists/obstetricians and between home and hospital births. METHODS: Population-based perinatal audit, with explicit evidence-based audit criteria. SETTING: The northern part of the province of South-Holland in The Netherlands. All levels of perinatal care (primary, secondary and tertiary care, and home and hospital births) were included. CASES: Three hundred and forty-two cases of perinatal mortality (24 weeks of pregnancy--28 days after birth). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Scores by a Dutch and a European audit panel. Score 0: no substandard factors identified; score 1, 2 or 3: one or more substandard factors identified, which were unlikely (1), possibly (2) or probably (3) related to the perinatal death. RESULTS: In 25% of the perinatal deaths (95% Confidence Interval: 20-30%) a substandard factor was identified that according to the Dutch panel was possibly or probably related to the perinatal death. These were mainly maternal/social factors (10% of all perinatal deaths; most frequent substandard factor: smoking during pregnancy), and antenatal care factors (10% of all perinatal deaths; most frequent substandard factor: detection of intra-uterine growth retardation). We did not find statistically significant differences in scores between midwives and gynecologists/obstetricians or between home and hospital births. The European panel identified more substandard factors, but these were again equally distributed by level of care. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal deaths might be partly preventable in The Netherlands. There is no evidence that the frequency of substandard factors is related to specific aspects of the perinatal care system in The Netherlands.

Summary Background Nerve-function impairment (NFI) commonly occurs during or after chemotherapy in leprosy and is the key pathological process leading to disability and handicap. We describe the development of a simple clinical prediction rule for estimating the risk of NFI occurrence. Methods New leprosy cases who presented to a centre in Bangladesh were recruited and followed up for 2 years in a field setting. We used multivariable regression analysis by Cox's proportional hazards model to identify predictive variables for NFI. Discriminative ability was measured by a concordance statistic. Internal validity was assessed with bootstrap resampling techniques. Findings 2510 patients were followed up for 2 years, 166 developed NFI. A simple model was developed with leprosy group (either paucibacillary leprosy [PB] or multibacillary leprosy [MB]) and the presence of any nerve-function loss at registration as predictive variables. Patients with PB leprosy and no nerve-function loss had a 1·3% (95% Cl 0·8–1·8%) risk of developing NFI within 2 years of registration; patients with PB leprosy and nerve-function loss, or patients with MB leprosy and no nerve-function loss had a 16·0% (12–20%) risk; and patients with MB leprosy with nerve-function loss had a 65% (56–73%) risk. Interpretation Our prediction rule can be used to plan surveillance of new leprosy patients. Patients at low risk of NFI may need no follow-up beyond their course of chemotherapy (6 months); patients with intermediate risk need a minimum of 1 year of surveillance; and patients with high risk should have at least 2 years of surveillance for new NFI. Current recommendations for surveillance of patients with leprosy (for the duration of chemotherapy only) exclude an important group of patients who are at risk of developing NFI after completion of treatment.

Relapse rates were studied in patients from northern Thailand who were started on dapsone monotherapy between 1949 and 1976. Included are a group of patients who, for various reasons, also received combinations of dapsone and thiambutosine, thiacetazone, isoniazid and streptomycin. The overall relapse rate in paucibacillary patients on dapsone monotherapy only was 2.7 per 1000 person-years at risk (PYR) (average observation period 13.9 years). In the multibacillary patients who received dapsone monotherapy only, the relapse rate was 10.5 per 1000 PYR (average observation period 12.4 years). In both groups it was found that 50% of the relapses occurred after the seventh year of follow up. The overall relapse rate in those patients whose treatment included thiambutosine, thiacetazone, isoniazid and/or streptomycin for at least 3 months was 17.9 per 1000 PYR (average observation period 11.9 years). The difference with the multibacillary patients treated with dapsone monotherapy only is not significant. It is concluded that alternative antileprosy drugs included in therapy regimens with dapsone in the pre-MDT era did not result in relapses occurring less often.

383 HEPATITIS B AWARENESS AND SCREENING PROGRAMMES FOR CHINESE COMMUNITIES IN THE NETHERLANDS: SUCCESSFUL IDENTIFICATION OF PATIENTS WITH ACTIVE LIVER DISEASE M. Mostert, R. Wolter, I. Veldhuijzen, K. Dirksen, V. Rijckhorst, Y. Cheung, C. Boucher, O. de Zwart, H. Janssen, G. Boland. Infectious Disease, Municipal Public Health Service RotterdamRijnmond/National Hepatitis Centre, Infectious Disease, Public Health Service Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Division of Infectious Disease Control, Municipal Public Health Service The Hague, The Hague, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Wah Fook Wui Foundation, Department of Virology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, National Hepatitis Centre, Amersfoort, The Netherlands E-mail: g.boland@hepatitis.nl

Data of new, previously untreated leprosy patients from 6 northern provinces of Thailand, diagnosed at McKean Rehabilitation Center, Chiang Mai and associated clinics between 1951 and 1990 were analysed. The following trends were found: 1) Decreasing numbers of new, previously untreated patients. 2) Increasing average age of patients at onset and presentation of disease. 3) Decreasing duration between onset and presentation. 4) Increasing percentage of patients presenting within the first year of symptoms. 5) Increasing percentage of paucibacillary cases. 6) Decreasing percentage of patients presenting with deformity. These trends are a reflection of those seen for the whole of Thailand and indicate that leprosy control is being effective. Patients are presenting at an earlier stage than before, with consequent reduction in disability and infectivity. Better usage of chemotherapy since 1976 has helped to reduce the transmission of bacilli from person to person, combined with effective health education activities which have dispelled some wrong ideas about leprosy and encouraged patients to seek help early in the course of the disease. Additional factors related to public health and living standards have also contributed.