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Cryoballoon-guided pulmonary vein isolation (CB-PVI) for symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF) has become an established treatment option with encouraging results in terms of safety and efficacy. Data reporting on long-term data beyond a follow-up (FU) period of 5 years is scarce. This prospective study aimed to evaluate very long-term outcome after CB-PVI for AF.Data from consecutive patients treated with CB-PVI for symptomatic and drug refractory AF between 2005 and 2012 were analyzed. Patients with a FU of ≥9 years after index CB-PVI were included. All patients were continuously followed-up in our outpatient clinic. Arrhythmia recurrence was defined as AF or atrial tachycardia (AT) lasting30 s beyond a 3-month blanking period.A total of 385 patients (71% male) were included. Mean age was 58 ± 10 years and paroxysmal AF was present in 93% of patients. Mean FU duration was 124 ± 24 months. At the end of the observational period, 73% of all patients were in stable sinus rhythm after a mean of 2 ± 0.8 ablation procedures. Patients with AF/AT recurrence were older (60 ± 8 vs. 57 ± 10 years; p = .019), had a higher CHACB-PVI as index procedure for AF ablation resulted in favorable long-term outcome in symptomatic AF. CB-PVI might be recommended as interventional therapy in patients with lower LA remodeling.

This paper describes the assessment of the performance of a method for providing early warnings of unusually wet and dry precipitation conditions globally. The indicator that is used for forecasting these conditions is computed from forecasted standardized precipitation index (SPI) values for accumulation periods of 1, 3, and 6 months. The SPI forecasts are derived from forecasted precipitation produced by the latest probabilistic seasonal forecast of ECMWF. Early warnings of unusual precipitation periods are shown only when and where the forecast is considered robust (i.e., with at least 40% of ensemble members associated with intense forecasts), and corresponding with significant SPI values (i.e., below −1 for dry, or above +1 for wet conditions). The intensity of the forecasted events is derived based on the extreme forecast index and associated shift of tails products developed by ECMWF. Different warning levels are then assessed, depending on the return period of the forecast intensity, and the coherence of the ensemble forecast members. The assessment of the indicators performance is based on the 25-member ensemble forecast system that is carried out every month during the 36 years of the hindcast period (1981–2016). The results show that significant information is provided even for the longest lead time, albeit with a large variability across the globe with the highest scores over central Russia, Southeast Asia, and the northern part of South America or Australia. Because of the loss of predictability, each SPI is based on the first lead time. A sensitivity test highlights the influence on the robustness of the forecasts of the warning levels used, as well as the effects of prior conditions and of seasonality.

European forests are an important source for timber production, human welfare, income, protection and biodiversity. During the last two decades, Europe has experienced a number of droughts which were exceptionally within the last 500 years both in terms of duration and intensity and these droughts seem to left remarkable imprints in the mortality dynamics of European forests. However, systematic observations on tree decline with emphasis on single species together with high-resolution drought data has been scarce so far so that deeper insights into mortality dynamics and drought occurrence is still limiting our understanding at continental scale.Here we make use of the ICP Forest crown defoliation dataset, permitting us to retrospectively monitor tree mortality for four major conifers, two major broadleaves as well as a pooled dataset of nearly all minor tree species in Europe. In total, we analysed more than 3 million observations gathered during the last 25 years and employed a high-resolution drought index which is able to assess soil moisture anomaly based on a hydrological water-balance and runoff model every ten days across the continent.We found significant overall and species-specific increasing trends in mortality rates accompanied by decreasing soil moisture. In particular, previous-year soil moisture anomaly had a stronger influence on mortality rates than current-year soil moisture, suggesting that legacy effects (either physiological or caused by secondary biotic agents) play a keyrole in actual forest decline. Remarkable peaks in mortality occurred simultaneously in Norway spruce and Scots pine (2004, 2018, 2019), but were largely asynchronous in broadleaves. Mortality rates in Norway spruce and Scots pine have increased by 60% and 40%, respectively (period 2010-2020 compared to 1995-2009). Oak (Quercus robur and petraea) as well as Silver-fir (Abies alba) showed much lower mortality and only a weak upward trend.We conclude that mortality patterns in European forests are currently reaching a concerning upward trend which could be further accelerated by future global change-type droughts.

Friedemann Schmoll und Jürgen Vogt: Alb-Ansichten. Spaziergänge übers schwäbische Hausgebirge. Silberburg-Verlag Tübingen 2002.112 Seiten mit zahlreichen Farbabbildungen. Pappband € 19,90. ISBN 3-87407-540-0

An vielen deutschen Schulen herrscht Lehrkräftemangel, dem u. a. durch die Einstellung von Seiteneinsteiger*innen begegnet wird. Das Land Thüringen beispielsweise bietet hier neben anderen Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen einen Intensivkurs an, um die neuen Lehrkräfte im Schuldienst zu unterstützen. Die SARS-CoV-2 Pandemie erforderte jedoch die Transformation des Kurses in den digitalen Raum und wirkte als Katalysator bei der Umsetzung digitaler Fortbildungsangebote. Doch wie kann der Heterogenität der Lerngruppe, deren Berufsbiographien nicht unterschiedlicher sein könnten, im digitalen Raum bedarfsgerecht begegnet werden? Im Beitrag werden Möglichkeiten, Erfahrungen und Erkenntnisse diskutiert sowie auf der Basis von Evaluationsbögen Rückmeldungen von Seiteneinsteiger*innen vorgestellt.

⍰European forests are an important source for timber production, human welfare, income, protection and biodiversity. During the last two decades, Europe has experienced a number of droughts which were exceptionally within the last 500 years both in terms of duration and intensity and these droughts seem to left remarkable imprints in the mortality dynamics of European forests. However, systematic observations on tree decline with emphasis on single species together with high-resolution drought data has been scarce so far so that deeper insights into mortality dynamics and drought occurrence is still limiting our understanding at continental scale.⍰Here we make use of the ICP Forest crown defoliation dataset, permitting us to retrospectively monitor tree mortality for four major conifers, two major broadleaves as well as a pooled dataset of nearly all minor tree species in Europe. In total, we analysed more than 3 million observations gathered during the last 25 years and employed a high-resolution drought index which is able to assess soil moisture anomaly based on a hydrological water-balance and runoff model every ten days globally. ⍰We found significant overall and species-specific increasing trends in mortality rates accompanied by decreasing soil moisture. A generalized linear model identified previous-year soil moisture anomaly as the most important driver of mortality patterns in European forests. Significant interactions appeared between previous-year soil moisture and stand water regime in conifers, strongly suggesting that conifers growing at productive sites are more vulnerable under drought.⍰We conclude that mortality patterns in European forests are currently reaching a concerning upward trend which could be further accelerated by global change-type droughts.Key messageForest mortality has significantly increased over the last 25 years and remained above the long-term mean since 2012.

The gas-phase electron diffraction study of 2-cyanopyridine was carried out for the first time. Results of ab initio structure calculations performed at the CCSD(T) level of theory agree well with the equilibrium structure determined by the electron diffraction method in combination with vibrational spectroscopy data and microwave rotational constants. The deviations between them are only a few thousandths of A units and a few tenths of degree in the bond lengths and bond angles, respectively. The structure in the solid state is more different from that in the gas phase. The observed discrepancies between these structures are up to 0.02 A and 2° in the bond lengths and bond angles, respectively. The influence of the ortho-, meta-, and para-cyano substituents on the geometry of pyridine ring is discussed. The pyridine ring is noticeably distorted due to cyano substituents. The Cipso–N and/or Cipso–C bond lengths are elongated both in 2-CNP and 4-CNP by 0.004 A in comparison to those in pyridine, whereas the Cipso–C bond lengths are increased by 0.005 and 0.009 A in 3-CNP.

Extreme climate events and nonsustainable land use are important drivers altering the functioning of European ecosystems, resulting in loss of the services provided. Yet a consensus method for regular continental scale assessment of ecosystem condition in relation to land degradation (LD) is still lacking. Here, we propose a new remote sensing-based approach allowing for improved, repeated assessment of changing pressure on terrestrial ecosystems. On the basis of segmented trend analysis of water-use efficiency (WUE), a map of ecosystem change type (ECT) was produced over Europe for the period 1999 to 2013. Results were related to drought and change in land use and land cover and to known cases of soil degradation (LD case-studies). More than 30% of the European ecosystems experienced significant changes in WUE, of which more than 20% were categorized as abrupt. Large-scale positive reversals in WUE were observed over regions with increasing crop yield and intensification of wood production, whereas decreased WUE was observed over grassland areas coinciding with high farmland abandonment. Evidence of drought pressure on ecosystem functioning (EF) was observed, with abrupt changes in functioning observed during major European drought events. The ECTs also provided relevant information on the location and type of change in EF over the LD case studies. We conclude that mapping of gradual and abrupt changes in EF is expected to be valuable tool for ecosystem condition assessment that is essential for assessing the success of reaching the LD neutrality objectives set by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. (Less)

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests (49%), 6 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (78%) and 12 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of croplands (67%), being mid-latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

Building on almost ten years of expertise and operational application of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), which is operationally implemented within the European Commission’s European Drought Observatory (EDO) for the purposes of early warning and monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe, this paper proposes a revised version of the index. The CDI conceptualizes drought as a cascade process, where a precipitation shortage (WATCH stage) develops into a soil water deficit (WARNING stage), which in turn leads to stress for vegetation (ALERT stage). The main goal of the revised CDI proposed here, is to improve the indicator’s performance for those events that are currently not reliably represented, without drastically altering the modelling framework. This is achieved by means of two main modifications: (a) use of the previously occurring CDI value to improve the temporal consistency of the timeseries, (b) introduction of two temporary classes – namely, soil moisture and vegetation greenness – to avoid brief discontinuities in a stage. The efficacy of the modifications is tested by comparing the performances of the revised and currently implemented versions of the indicator, for actual drought events in Europe during the last 20 years. The revised CDI reliably reproduces the evolution of major droughts, out-performing the current version of the indicator, especially for long-lasting events. Since the revised CDI does not need supplementary input datasets, it is suitable for operational implementation within the EDO drought monitoring system.

In recent years, the adverse effects of drought have been experienced and perceived more severely and frequently all over Europe. These impacts are a result of the drought hazard and the socio-economic and ecological vulnerability. Due to the heterogeneity of Europe’s hydro-climatology and its cultural, political, social and economic diversity , the socio-economic and ecological impacts vary not only with respect to the extent, duration and severity of the drought, but also with the characteristics of affected societies, economic sectors and ecosystems. The lack of understanding the spatio-temporal differences in the drivers of drought risk hinders the successful mitigation of future impacts, and the design of suitable reactive and proactive drought action plans. Therefore, this study describes the European drought events of 2018 and 2019 beyond the hazard. The hypothesis to be proven is that similar hazard conditions result in different impacts due to national and sub-national differences in drought vulnerability, perception and drought-risk management. Based on research in 35 European countries, comparable national datasets on drought management and perception are established. For each of these countries, a uniform questionnaire was distributed to water management-related stakeholders at different administrative levels. A major focus of the questions was the perception and impacts of the recent droughts and current management strategies on a national and sub-national scale. The results of the questionnaires are also compared to country-scale profiles of past drought events for different drought types, i.e. meteorological, soil moisture, hydrological and vegetation drought, which were established based on information derived from the European Drought Observatory indicator system.The results highlight a large diversity in the national perception of drought as a natural hazard and its impacts; but also a different spatial extent of 2018/2019 drought events At the same time, existing drought management strategies are shown to increase national and sub-national resilience. The study, therefore, calls for international exchange and mutual learning to improve national and international drought governance and management.

Winter droughts, defined as periods of reduced precipitation and snow accumulation during the cold season, can have significant impacts on the subsequent summer season, especially over areas that strongly rely on stored water resources released during the spring melting.The Snow Water Equivalent, SWE, represents a reliable means to quantify the amount of liquid water in the snowpack, and its anomalies can be used to evaluate deviations from the amount usually stored. Unfortunately, the use of SWE for operational monitoring of winter droughts is constrained by the limited availability of long time series of ground observations, and the lack of coordinated measuring networks at European continental scale.Remote sensing data from microwave sensors, therefore, represent a valuable source of continuously-updated SWE data. Products such as the H-SAF (EUMETSAT Hydrology Satellite Application Facility, http://hsaf.meteoam.it/) SNOBS4-H13 are updated in almost near-real time, providing daily maps covering continental Europe and northern Africa. Limitations include data gaps, difficult retrievals over impervious terrain, coarse spatial resolution and a reduced length of the time series.In this study, we tested the potential inclusion of a drought indicator based on the H-SAF SWE product in the European Drought Observatory (EDO, http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu), with the aim to fill the current gap faced over mountainous basins in terms of early warning of spring water deficits.An analysis of the full dataset collected between 2013 and 2019 highlights how, currently, the main drawback of the product seems to be represented by the limited length of the time series, as well as by the difficulties to capture snow accumulation over some mountainous areas (e.g., Pyrenees) likely due to the coarse spatial resolution. Spatial aggregation at water basin scale was also tested, in order to evaluate the possibility to reduce the effects of some of these limitations.

Drought is a recurrent global phenomenon considered one of the most complex hazards with manifold impacts on communities, ecosystems, and economies. While many sectors are affected by drought, agriculture’s high dependency on water makes it particularly susceptible to droughts, threatening the livelihoods of many, and hampering the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Identifying pathways towards more drought resilient societies by analyzing the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk is of increasing importance for the identification, prioritization and planning of risk reduction, risk transfer and adaptation options. While major progress has been made regarding the mapping, prediction and monitoring of drought events at different spatial scales (local to global), comprehensive drought risk assessments that consider the complex interaction of drought hazards, exposure and vulnerability factors are still the exception.Here, we present, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment at national level for both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems. The analysis integrates (1) composite drought hazard indicators based on historical climate conditions (1980-2016), (2) exposure data represented by the harvest area of irrigated and rainfed systems, and (3) an expert-weighted set of social-ecological vulnerability indicators. The latter were identified through a systematic review of literature (n = 105 peer-reviewed articles) and expert consultations (n = 78 experts). This study attempted to characterize the average drought risk for the whole study period.Results show that drought risk of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems display different heterogeneous patterns at the global level with higher risk for southeastern Europe, as well as northern and southern Africa. The vulnerability to drought highlights the relevance to increase the countries’ coping capacity in order to reduce their overall drought risk. For instance, the United States, which despite being highly exposed to drought hazard, has low socio-ecological susceptibility and sufficiently high coping capacities to reduce the overall drought risk considerably. When comparing irrigated and rain-fed drought hazard/exposure, there are significant regional differences. For example, the northern part of Central Africa and South America have low hazard/exposure levels of irrigated crops, resulting in a low total risk, although high vulnerability characterize these regions. South Africa, however, has a high amount of rain-fed crops exposed to drought, but a lower vulnerability compared to other African countries. Further, the drivers of drought risk vary substantially across and within countries, calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation options.Findings from this study underline the relevance of analyzing drought risk from a holistic and integrated perspective that brings together data from different sources and disciplines and based on a spatially explicit approach. Being based on open-source data, the approach allows for reproduction in varying regions and for different spatial scales, and can serve as a blueprint for future drought risk assessments for other affected sectors, such as water supply, tourism, or energy. By providing information on the underlying drivers and patterns of drought risk, this approach supports the identification of priority regions and provides entry points for targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options to move towards resilient agricultural systems.

A time-series of fAPAR (fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) data collected by the MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Terra satellite between 2001 and 2016 h...

The equilibrium structure of the 4-cyanopyridine molecule was determined from experimental data for the first time. The computations performed at the CCSD(T) level agree well with the results of the combined electron diffraction and microwave data analysis. The effect of the para-cyano substituent on the geometry of the pyridine ring is observed in comparison with the literature data for the pyridine molecule.

Heat and cold waves may have considerable human and economic impacts in Europe. Recent events, like the heat waves observed in France in 2003 and Russia in 2010, illustrated the major consequences to be expected. Reliable Early Warning Systems for extreme temperatures would, therefore, be of high value for decision makers. However, they require a clear definition and robust forecasts of these events. This study analyzes the predictability of heat and cold waves over Europe, defined as at least three consecutive days of $${\text {T}}_{\text {min}}$$ and $${\text {T}}_{\text {max}}$$ above the quantile Q90 (under Q10), using the extended ensemble system of ECMWF. The results show significant predictability for events within a 2-week lead time, but with a strong decrease of the predictability during the first week of forecasts (from 80 to 40% of observed events correctly forecasted). The scores show a higher predictive skill for the cold waves (in winter) than for the heat waves (in summer). The uncertainties and the sensitivities of the predictability are discussed on the basis of tests conducted with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Results demonstrate the negligible effect of the temporal resolution (very few errors due to bad timing of the forecasts), and a better predictability of large-scale events. The onset and the end of the waves are slightly less predictable with an average of about 35% (30%) of observed heat (cold) waves onsets or ends correctly forecasted with a 5-day lead time. Finally, the forecasted intensities show a correlation of about 0.65 with those observed, revealing the challenge to predict this important characteristic.

Background Mortality and morbidity are higher among patients with atrial fibrillation and heart failure than among those with heart failure alone. Catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation has been proposed as a means of improving outcomes among patients with heart failure who are otherwise receiving appropriate treatment. Methods We randomly assigned patients with symptomatic paroxysmal or persistent atrial fibrillation who did not have a response to antiarrhythmic drugs, had unacceptable side effects, or were unwilling to take these drugs to undergo either catheter ablation (179 patients) or medical therapy (rate or rhythm control) (184 patients) for atrial fibrillation in addition to guidelines-based therapy for heart failure. All the patients had New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV heart failure, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less, and an implanted defibrillator. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for worsening heart f...

Extreme temperature anomalies such as heat and cold waves may have strong impacts on human activities and health. The heat waves in Western Europe in 2003 and in Russia in 2010, or the cold wave in South-Eastern Europe in 2012, generated a considerable amount of economic loss and resulted in the death of several thousands of people. Providing an operational system to monitor extreme temperature anomalies in Europe is thus of prime importance to help decision makers and emergency services which are responsive to an unfolding extreme event. In this study, the development and the validation of a monitoring system of extreme temperature anomalies are presented. The first part of the study describes the methodology based on the persistence of events exceeding a percentile threshold. The method is applied to three different observational datasets, in order to assess the robustness and highlighting uncertainties in the observations. The climatology of extreme events from the last 21 years is then analysed to highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the hazard and discrepancies amongst the observational datasets are discussed. In the last part of the study, the products derived from this study are presented and discussed regarding previous studies. The results highlight the accuracy of the developed index and the statistical robustness of the distribution used to calculate the return periods.

One of the possible consequences of projected global warming is the progressive enlargement of drylands. This study investigates to what extent population and land-use (forests, pastures, and croplands) are likely to be in areas turning arid in the 21st century. The first part of the study focuses on the climatological enlargement of arid areas at global, macro-regional, and high-resolution (0.44°) scales. To do so we analysed a large ensemble of CORDEX climate simulations, combined three indicators (FAO-UNEP aridity index, Koppen-Geiger climate classification, and Holdridge life zones), and quantified the areas turning from climatologically not arid into climatologically arid (and vice-versa) from recent past (1981–2010) to four projected global warming levels (GWLs) from 1.5°C to 4°C. In the second part, we used population and land-use projections to analyze their exposure to progressive shifts to drier or wetter climate. Both types of projections follow five socio-economic scenarios (SSPs from SSP1 to SSP5). We present results for the viable combinations between SSPs and GWLs. Depending on GWL, the projected drying patterns show regional differences but, overall, the negative consequences of climate change are clear. Already at 1.5°C warming, approximately 2 million km2 (1.4% of global land) are likely to become arid; at 2°C this area corresponds to 2.6 million km2 (2.7%), at 3°C to 5.2 million km2 (3.5%), and at 4°C to 6.8 million km2 (4.5%), an area that can be ranked the seventh largest country in the World. Such drying is particular strong over South America and southern Europe. In the worst-case scenario (SSP3, regional rivalry, at 4°C), approximately 500 million people will live in areas shifting towards arid climate. Forest areas are likely to be more affected in South America, pastures in Africa, and croplands in the Northern Hemisphere. For land-use, the worst-case scenarios are SSP3 and SSP5 (fossil-fuel based future): at GWL 4°C, about 0.5 million km2 of forests and 1.2 million km2 of both pastures and croplands are likely to be in areas shifting to arid climate.

Agricultural drought events can affect large regions across the world, implying the need for a suitable global tool for an accurate monitoring of this phenomenon. Soil moisture anomalies are considered a good metric to capture the occurrence of agricultural drought events, and they have become an important component of several operational drought monitoring systems. In the framework of the JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO, http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo/), the suitability of three datasets as possible representations of root zone soil moisture anomalies has been evaluated: (1) the soil moisture from the Lisflood distributed hydrological model (namely LIS), (2) the remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature data from the MODIS satellite (namely LST), and (3) the ESA Climate Change Initiative combined passive/active microwave skin soil moisture dataset (namely CCI). Due to the independency of these three datasets, the triple collocation (TC) technique has been applied, aiming at quantifying the likely error associated with each dataset in comparison to the unknown true status of the system. TC analysis was performed on five macro-regions (namely North America, Europe, India, southern Africa and Australia) detected as suitable for the experiment, providing insight into the mutual relationship between these datasets as well as an assessment of the accuracy of each method. Even if no definitive statement on the spatial distribution of errors can be provided, a clear outcome of the TC analysis is the good performance of the remote sensing datasets, especially CCI, over dry regions such as Australia and southern Africa, whereas the outputs of LIS seem to be more reliable over areas that are well monitored through meteorological ground station networks, such as North America and Europe. In a global drought monitoring system, the results of the error analysis are used to design a weighted-average ensemble system that exploits the advantages of each dataset.

As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI, which accounts for anomalous low rainfall), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, which accounts for high temperatures and scarce precipitations), and the reconnaissance drought indicator (RDI, similar to SPEI but more affected by extreme events), has been computed at 3- and 12-month accumulation scales to characterize trends in seasonal and annual events from 1981 to 2100. Climate data from 11 bias-adjusted high-resolution (0.11°) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX (coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment) have been used in the analyses. For each simulation, the frequency and severity of drought and extreme drought events for 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 have been analysed. Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe.

Analysis of multidimensional function properties is required for industrial applications. The solution of its problems is a challenge in economics, sociology, chemistry, biology, biochemistry, and other sciences. For example, the study of the potential energy surface (PES) of a free molecule is of fundamental importance in structural chemistry because it is necessary to determine the stable conformations of a molecule and the ways of interconversion between them. However, if the PES is a function of more than three rotational coordinates, the costs of its quantum-chemical calculation rapidly increases and the problem of its graphical visualization can be hardly solved for a large number of variables. This work describes how a specially developed multidimensional interpolation procedure can contribute to solve these problems. To visualize a five dimensional (5D) hypersurface, the authors applied a special coordinate system.

Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.448) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only,;15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (;47% under RCP4.5,;49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas. Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Barbosa, Paulo. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Bucchignani, Edoardo. Centro Euro Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici.; Italia Fil: Cassano, John. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: Cavazos, Tereza. Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Super; México Fil: Christensen, Jens H.. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca Fil: Christensen, Ole B.. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca Fil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia Fil: Evans, Jason. University of New South Wales. Faculty of Science; Australia Fil: Geyer, Beate. Institute of Coastal Research; Alemania Fil: Giorgi, Filippo. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia Fil: Hadjinicolaou, Panos. Environment And Water Research Center; Chipre Fil: Jacob, Daniela. Climate Service Center; Alemania Fil: Katzfey, Jack. Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organis; Australia Fil: Koenigk, Torben. Swedish Meteorological And Hydrological; Suecia Fil: Laprise, René. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá Fil: Lennard, Christopher J.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica Fil: Kurnaz, M. Levent. Bogazici University; Turquía Fil: Delei, L.I.. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China Fil: Llopart, Marta. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; Brasil Fil: McCormick, Niall. European Commission Joint Research Centre; España Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission Joint Research Centre; España Fil: Nikulin, Grigory. No especifíca; Fil: Ozturk, Tugba. No especifíca; Fil: Panitz, Hans Juergen. No especifíca; Fil: da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio. No especifíca; Fil: Rockel, Burkhardt. No especifíca; Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Syktus, Jozef. The University of Queensland; Australia. University of Queensland; Australia Fil: Tangang, Fredolin. No especifíca; Fil: Vautard, Robert. No especifíca; Fil: Vautard, Robert. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; España Fil: Winger, Katja. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá Fil: Zittis, George. No especifíca; Fil: Dosio, Alessandro. No especifíca

Hydrological drought is currently underrepresented in global monitoring systems, mainly due the shortage of near real-time estimates of river discharge at the global scale. In this study, the outpu...

The equilibrium structure of the 3-cyanopyridine molecule was experimentally obtained for the first time. The calculations performed by the CCSD(T) method show a good agreement with the results of the electron diffraction and microwave data analysis.

In the last decades drought has become one of the natural disasters with most relevant impacts in Europe and this not only in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean that are inclined to such events. As a complex natural phenomenon, drought is characterized by many hydro-meteorological aspects, a large variety of possible impacts and definitions. This study focuses on meteorological drought, investigated by using indicators that include precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These indicators account for the lack of precipitation and the drying effects of hot temperatures and in this study have been computed for short-accumulation periods (3-month) to capture the seasonality of droughts. The input variables, monthly precipitation and temperature for 1950–2015, stem from daily gridded E-OBS data and indicators were computed on regular grids spanning over the whole of Europe. PET was calculated from minimum and maximum temperatures using the Hargreaves-Samani formulation. Monthly precipitation and PET have then been used to compute the SPI-3 and the SPEI-3 time series. From these series drought events were defined at seasonal scale and trends of frequency and severity of droughts and extreme droughts were analyzed for the periods 1950–2015 and 1981–2015. According to the SPI (driven by precipitation), results show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over North-Eastern Europe, especially in winter and spring, and a moderate opposite tendency over Southern Europe, especially in spring and summer. According to the SPEI (driven by precipitation and temperature), Northern Europe shows similar wetting patterns, while Southern and Eastern Europe show a more remarkable drying tendency, especially in summer and autumn. Both for frequency and severity, the evolution towards drier conditions is more relevant in the last three decades over Central Europe in spring, the Mediterranean area in summer, and Eastern Europe in autumn. Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. GFT Italy; Italia Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission. Joint Research Centre; Italia

During the last 20 years, Argentina experienced several extreme and widespread droughts in many different regions, including the core cropland areas. The most devastating recent events were recorded in the years 2006, 2009 and 2011. Reported impacts of the main events induced losses of more than 4 billion U.S. dollars and more than 1 million persons were reported to be directly or indirectly affected. In this paper, we analyse the drought risk in Argentina, taking into account recent information on drought hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Accordingly, we identified the most severe droughts in Argentina during the 2000&ndash, 2015 period using a combination of drought hazard indicators and exposure layers. Three main events were identified: (1) during spring 2006 droughts peaked in the northeast of Argentina, (2) in 2009 precipitation deficits indicated a drought epicenter in the central Argentinian plains, and (3) in 2011 the northern Patagonia region experienced a combination of natural disasters due to severe drought conditions and a devastating volcanic eruption. Furthermore, we analysed the dynamics of drought exposure for the population and the main economic sectors affected by municipality, i.e., agriculture and livestock production. Assets exposed to droughts have been identified with several records of drought impacts and declarations of farming emergencies. We show that by combining exposure and vulnerability with drought intensity it is feasible to detect the likelihood of regional impacts in different sectors.