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The Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) is a small pelagic fish found in the Sea of Japan, the marginal sea of the western North Pacific. It is an important species for regional fisheries, but their transportation and migration patterns during early life stages remain unclear. In this study, we analyzed the stable oxygen isotope ratios of otoliths of young-of-the-year (age 0) Japanese sardines collected from the northern offshore and southern coastal areas of the Sea of Japan in 2015 and 2016. The ontogenetic shifts of the geographic distribution were estimated by comparing the profiles of life-long isotope ratios and temporally varying isoscape, which was calculated using the temperature and salinity fields produced by an ocean data assimilation model. Individuals that were collected in the northern and southern areas hatched and stayed in the southern areas (west offshore of Kyushu) until late June, and thereafter, they can be distinguished into two groups: one that migrated northward at shallow layer and one that stayed around the southern area in the deep layer. A comparison of somatic growth trajectories of the two groups, which was reconstructed based on otolith microstructure analysis, suggested that individuals that migrated northward had significantly larger body lengths in late June than those that stayed in the southern area. These results indicate that young-of-the-year Japanese sardines that hatched in the southern area may have been forced to choose one of two strategies to avoid extremely high water temperatures within seasonal and geographical limits. These include migrating northward or moving to deeper layers. Our results indicate that the environmental variabilities in the southern area could critically impact sardine population dynamics in the Sea of Japan., Comment: 35 pages including 8 figures and 4 supplementary figures

A seismic wavefield reconstruction framework based on compressed sensing using the data-driven reduced-order model (ROM) is proposed and its characteristics are investigated through numerical experiments. The data-driven ROM is generated from the dataset of the wavefield using the singular value decomposition. The spatially continuous seismic wavefield is reconstructed from the sparse and discrete observation and the data-driven ROM. The observation sites used for reconstruction are effectively selected by the sensor optimization method for linear inverse problems based on a greedy algorithm. The proposed framework was applied to simulation data of theoretical waveform with the subsurface structure of the horizontally-stratified three layers. The validity of the proposed method was confirmed by the reconstruction based on the noise-free observation. Since the ROM of the wavefield is used as prior information, the reconstruction error is reduced to an approximately lower error bound of the present framework, even though the number of sensors used for reconstruction is limited and randomly selected. In addition, the reconstruction error obtained by the proposed framework is much smaller than that obtained by the Gaussian process regression. For the numerical experiment with noise-contaminated observation, the reconstructed wavefield is degraded due to the observation noise, but the reconstruction error obtained by the present framework with all available observation sites is close to a lower error bound, even though the reconstructed wavefield using the Gaussian process regression is fully collapsed. Although the reconstruction error is larger than that obtained using all observation sites, the number of observation sites used for reconstruction can be reduced while minimizing the deterioration and scatter of the reconstructed data by combining it with the sensor optimization method.

The ``big'' seismic data not only acquired by seismometers but also acquired by vibrometers installed in buildings and infrastructure and accelerometers installed in smartphones will be certainly utilized for seismic research in the near future. Since it is impractical to utilize all the seismic big data in terms of the computational cost, methods which can select observation sites depending on the purpose are indispensable. We propose an observation site selection method for the accurate reconstruction of the seismic wavefield by process-driven approaches. The proposed method selects observation sites suitable for accurately estimating physical model parameters such as subsurface structures and source information to be input into a numerical simulation of the seismic wavefield. The seismic wavefield is reconstructed by the numerical simulation using the parameters estimated based on the observed signals at only observation sites selected by the proposed method. The observation site selection in the proposed method is based on the sensitivity of each observation site candidate to the physical model parameters; the matrix corresponding to the sensitivity is constructed by approximately calculating the derivatives based on the simulations, and then, observation sites are selected by evaluating the quantity of the sensitivity matrix based on the D-optimality criterion proposed in the optimal design of experiments. In the present study, physical knowledge on the sensitivity to the parameters such as seismic velocity, layer thickness, and hypocenter location was obtained by investigating the characteristics of the sensitivity matrix. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the proposed method was shown by verifying the accuracy of seismic wavefield reconstruction using the observation sites selected by the proposed method., Comment: Accepted manuscript for publication in Geophysical Journal International

Long-term slow-slip events (LSSEs) usually occur on the deep, shallow parts of subducting plates and have substantial relation with adjacent megathrust fault motion. Conventional techniques of quantifying slow earthquake frictional features show that these features may be indicative of predictive seismic motion; however, quantifying high-accuracy uncertainty of the frictional fields has not yet been achieved. We therefore propose a method of uncertainty quantification for spatially inhomogeneous frictional features from slip motion on an LSSE fault--megathrust fault complex in southwestern Japan. By combining a fault motion model that mimics slow-slip motion and a variational data assimilation (DA) technique using a second-order adjoint method, we have succeeded in quantifying the spatial distribution of the uncertainty of the frictional features. Further, evaluation of the spatial distribution in high-resolution reveals the correlation between the dynamics of the slow-slip motion and the important components of the frictional features, which is valuable information for observational DA design. Findings from this study are expected to advance the theoretical foundation of applied seismic motion prediction techniques using slow-slip frictional features as stress meters for megaquakes, as well as improve understanding of the relationship between the slow-slip motion and frictional parameters of a fault.

In this study, we experimentally investigated the time dependence of the statistical properties of two-dimensional drying crack patterns to determine the functional form of fragment size distribution. Experiments using a thin layer of a magnesium carbonate hydroxide paste revealed a "dynamical scaling" property in the time series of the fragment size distribution, which has been predicted by theoretical and numerical studies. Further analysis results based on Bayesian inference show the transition of the functional form of the fragment size distribution from a log-normal distribution to a generalized gamma distribution. The combination of a statistical model of the fragmentation process and the dynamics of stress concentration of a drying thin layer of viscoelastic material explains the origin of the transition.

We propose a phase prediction method for the pattern formation in the uniaxial two-dimensional kinetic Ising model with the dipole-dipole interactions under the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau dynamics. Taking the effects of the material thickness into account by assuming the uniformness along the magnetization axis, the model corresponds to thin magnetic materials with long-range repulsive interactions. We propose a new theoretical basis to understand the effects of the material parameters on the formation of the magnetic domain patterns in terms of the equation of balance governing the balance between the linear- and nonlinear forces in the equilibrium state. Based on this theoretical basis, we propose a new method to predict the phase in the equilibrium state reached after the time-evolution under the dynamics with a given set of parameters, by approximating the third-order term using the restricted phase-space approximation [R. Anzaki, K. Fukushima, Y. Hidaka, and T. Oka, Ann. Phys. 353, 107 (2015)] for the $\phi^4$-models. Although the proposed method does not have the perfect concordance with the actual numerical results, it has no arbitrary parameters and functions to tune the prediction. In other words, it is a method with no a priori assumptions on domain patterns.

Uncovering the distribution of magnitudes and arrival times of aftershocks is a key to comprehend the characteristics of the sequence of earthquakes, which enables us to predict seismic activities and hazard assessments. However, identifying the number of aftershocks immediately after the main shock is practically difficult due to contaminations of arriving seismic waves. To overcome the difficulty, we construct a likelihood based on the detected data incorporating a detection function to which the Gaussian process regression (GPR) is applied. The GPR is capable of estimating not only the parameters of the distribution of aftershocks together with the detection function but also credible intervals for both of the parameters and the detection function. A property that distributions of both the Gaussian process and aftershocks are exponential functions leads to an efficient Bayesian computational algorithm to estimate the hyperparameters. After the validations through numerical tests, the proposed method is retrospectively applied to the catalog data related to the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake towards early forecasting of the aftershocks. The result shows that the proposed method stably estimates the parameters of the distribution simultaneously their credible intervals even within three hours after the main shock.

We consider a scalar function depending on a numerical solution of an initial value problem, and its second-derivative (Hessian) matrix for the initial value. The need to extract the information of the Hessian or to solve a linear system having the Hessian as a coefficient matrix arises in many research fields such as optimization, Bayesian estimation, and uncertainty quantification. From the perspective of memory efficiency, these tasks often employ a Krylov subspace method that does not need to hold the Hessian matrix explicitly and only requires computing the multiplication of the Hessian and a given vector. One of the ways to obtain an approximation of such Hessian-vector multiplication is to integrate the so-called second-order adjoint system numerically. However, the error in the approximation could be significant even if the numerical integration to the second-order adjoint system is sufficiently accurate. This paper presents a novel algorithm that computes the intended Hessian-vector multiplication exactly and efficiently. For this aim, we give a new concise derivation of the second-order adjoint system and show that the intended multiplication can be computed exactly by applying a particular numerical method to the second-order adjoint system. In the discussion, symplectic partitioned Runge--Kutta methods play an essential role.

Data assimilation (DA) is a fundamental computational technique that integrates numerical simulation models and observation data on the basis of Bayesian statistics. Originally developed for meteorology, especially weather forecasting, DA is now an accepted technique in various scientific fields. One key issue that remains controversial is the implementation of DA in massive simulation models under limited computation time and resources. In this paper, we propose an adjoint-based DA method for massive autonomous models that produces optimum estimates and their uncertainties within practical computation time and resource constraints. The uncertainties are given as several diagonal components of an inverse Hessian matrix, which is the covariance matrix of a normal distribution that approximates the target posterior probability density function in the neighborhood of the optimum. Conventional algorithms for deriving the inverse Hessian matrix require $O(CN^2+N^3)$ computations and $O(N^2)$ memory, where $N$ is the number of degrees of freedom of a given autonomous system and $C$ is the number of computations needed to simulate time series of suitable length. The proposed method using a second-order adjoint method allows us to directly evaluate the diagonal components of the inverse Hessian matrix without computing all of its components. This drastically reduces the number of computations to $O(C)$ and the amount of memory to $O(N)$ for each diagonal component. The proposed method is validated through numerical tests using a massive two-dimensional Kobayashi's phase-field model. We confirm that the proposed method correctly reproduces the parameter and initial state assumed in advance, and successfully evaluates the uncertainty of the parameter. Such information regarding uncertainty is valuable, as it can be used to optimize the design of experiments.

We propose a stochastic model of a fragmentation process, developed by taking into account fragment lifetime as a function of their size based on the Gibrat process. If lifetime is determined by a power function of fragment size, numerical results indicate that size distributions at different times can be collapsed into a single time-invariant curve by scaling size by average fragment size (i.e., the distribution obeys the dynamical scaling law). If lifetime is determined by a logarithmic function of fragment size, the distribution does not obey the scaling law. The necessary and sufficient condition that the scaling law is obeyed is obtained by a scaling analysis of the master equation.