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In this paper, we introduce a Caputo-sense fractional derivative to an existing model for the Chikungunya transmission dynamics, replacing integer derivative. After reviewing previous work on the integer order model, we suggest a change whereby the integer derivative is replaced by the Caputo derivative operator, and then we obtain results about the asymptotic stability of equilibrium points in this new fractional model. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution as well as the global stability of the fractional system. We then construct a numerical scheme for the fractional model, and use parameter values from the Chikungunya epidemic in Chad to perform numerical simulations. This allows us to validate our theoretical results and compare the dynamics behaviour of both models. We find from numerical simulations, that for the fractional-order parameter η in the range (0.85;1), daily detected cases are closer to those the model predict. Thus in the case of Chikungunya epidemic in Chad, the model with fractional derivative produces better results than which with integer derivative.

In December 2019, human cases of novel coronavirus infection were detected in Wuhan, China which have been named as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Since COVID-19 was first detected in China, the virus has reached more than 120 countries and was declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the WHO. In this paper, we have highlighted the influence of temperature on the spread of COVID-19. For this, the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 is modeled taking into account the influence of the temperature on the persistence of coronavirus in the environment. We also took into account the impact of proportion of people who respect the barrier measures published by the WHO on the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic. Taking into account the influence of the temperature on the persistence of the virus in the environment, the dynamic transmission has been described by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). First, we analyzed the solutions of system in the case where the impact of the temperature on the virus is neglected. Second, we carried out the mathematical analysis of the solutions of the system in the non-autonomous case. Mathematical analyzes have enabled us to establish that the temperature and proportion of persons who respect the barrier rules can affect the spread of COVID-19. Some numerical simulations have been proposed to illustrate the behavior of the pandemic in some countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change influences more and more of our activities. These changes led to environmental changes which has in turn affected the spatial and temporal distribution of the incidence of vector-borne diseases. To establish the impact of climate on contact rate of vector-borne diseases, we examine the variation of prevalence of diseases according to season. In this paper, the goal is to establish that the basic reproductive number depends on the duration of transmission period and the date of the first conta-mination case that was declared () in the specific case of malaria. We described the dynamics of transmission of malaria by using non-autonomous differential equations. We analyzed the stability of endemic equilibrium (EE) and disease-free equilibrium (DFE). We prove that the persistence of disease depends on minimum and maximum values of contact rate of vector-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]