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On 18 September 2020, medicane Ianos hit the western coast of Greece resulting in flooding and severe damage at several coastal locations. In this work, we aim at evaluating its impact on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of an ensemble of numerical simulations. We applied a coupled wave-current model to an unstructured mesh representing the whole Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution increasing in the Ionian Sea along the cyclone path and the landfall area. To investigate the uncertainty of modelling sea levels and waves for such an intense event, we performed a multimodel ensemble of ocean simulations using several coarse (10 km) and high-resolution (2 km) meteorological forcings from different mesoscale models. The performance of the ocean and wave models was evaluated against observations retrieved from fixed monitoring stations and satellites. All model runs emphasized the occurrence of severe sea conditions along the cyclone path and at the coast. Due to the rugged and complex coastline, extreme sea levels are localised at specific coastal sites. However, numerical results show a large spread of the simulated sea conditions for both the sea level and waves highlighting the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event. The multi-model / multi-physics approach allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological to ocean variables and the subsequent coastal impact. The ensemble mean and standard deviation were combined to prove the hazard scenarios of the potential impact of such an extreme event to be used in a flood risk management plan.

The IANOS Medicane was one the most severe storms that have formed in the Mediterranean Sea with Category 2 Hurricane characteristics. The storm induced a significant increase of sea level elevation along its pathway and caused the occurrence of storm surges at the central Ionian Sea with consequent impacts on coastal regions of the Ionian islands and western Greece. A multi-platform approach, based on hydrodynamic ocean simulations, nested to meteorological and coastal flooding simulations, is used in combination with field and satellite observations to describe the marine weather conditions, the storm surge characteristics, and the coastal inundation processes due to the impact of IANOS Medicane in September 2020. Both wind and atmospheric pressure patterns affected the storm surge variability over the Ionian Sea. The direct intrusion of the Medicane from the central Mediterranean Sea towards the Ionian Sea formed storm surges over several coastal areas, even before the storm's landfall, due to the accompanying onshore currents. Storm surges in the order of 30 cm generated extensive flooding over lowland coastal areas, as confirmed by both satellite (Normalized Difference Water Index: NDWI) and numerical (coastal inundation modeling) data. Satellite-derived and simulated estimations showed that, in specific coastal regions, the run-up of seawater extended up to 200 m inland, depending on the hydraulic connectivity between the lowland areas, which determined the inundation extents during the storm surge.

Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters, as it is determined by many physical processes. The spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation have been significantly affected by climate change during the past decades. Analysis of precipitation trends is challenging, especially in regions such as Greece, which is characterized by complex topography and includes several ungauged areas. With this study, we aim to shed new light on the climatic characteristics and inter-annual trends of precipitation over Greece. For this purpose, we used ERA5 monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 to estimate annual Theil–Sen trends and Mann–Kendall significance over Greece and surrounding areas. Additionally, in order to analyze and model the nonlinear relationships of monthly precipitation time series, we used generalized additive models (GAMs). The results indicated significant declining inter-annual trends of areal precipitation over the study area. Declining trends were more pronounced in winter over western and eastern Greece, but trends in spring, summer and autumn were mostly not significant. GAMs showcased that the trends were generally characterized by nonlinearity and precipitation over the study area presented high inter-decadal variability. Combining the results, we concluded that precipitation did not linearly change during the past 7 decades, but it first increased from the 1950s to the late 1960s, consequently decreased until the early 1990s and, afterwards, presented an increase until 2020 with a smaller rate than the 1950–1960s.

In the last years, several Etna eruption events are documented, forming lava flows and explosive activity. The Pilot EO4D_ash – Earth observation data for detection, discrimination & distribution (4D) of volcanic ash of the e-shape project provides the PANhellenic GEophysical observatory of Antikythera (PANGEA) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), in Greece with near-real-time alerts from Etna volcano eruptions. These alerts are used in the PANGEA station to monitor and reveal the presence of volcanic particles above the area the days following an eruption, also the station is supported by a volcanic particle monitoring and forecasting warning system. In this work, we investigate the volcano eruption between 30 May and 6 June 2019 which affected the southern parts of Greece and reaching the Antikythera station. Due to the prevailing meteorological conditions, volcanic particles and gases followed an easterly direction and were dispersed towards Greece. FLEXPART dispersion model simulations confirm the volcanic plume transport from Etna towards PANGEA, mixing also with co-existing desert dust particles. Model simulations are evaluated with PollyXT lidar measurements performed at PANGEA and satellite-based SO2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (TROPOMI/S5P). This is the first time that Etna volcanic products are monitored at the Antikythera station, in Greece with implications for the investigation of their role in the Mediterranean weather and climate.Acknowledgments: We acknowledge the support by EU H2020 E-shape project (Grant Agreement n. 820852). Also, this research was supported by data and services obtained from the PANhellenic Geophysical Observatory of Antikythera (PANGEA) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Greece, and by the project “PANhellenic infrastructure for Atmospheric Composition and climatE change” (MIS 5021516) which is implemented under the Action “Reinforcement of the Research and Innovation Infrastructure”, funded by the Operational Programme "Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation" (NSRF 2014-2020) and co-financed by Greece and the European Union (European Regional Development Fund). NOA team acknowledges the support of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF).

This study investigates an intense tropical-like cyclone which formed south of Sicily on 7 November 2014 and affected the central Mediterranean. The cyclone made landfall at Malta and eastern Sicily. The sustained surface wind speed reached 23.7 m/s (named tropical cyclone strength) at Lampedusa island, while a minimum mean sea-level pressure of 984 hPa was recorded at Malta. Baroclinic instability appeared to be important for its formation since it took place in a region with deep convection and was associated with a pre-existing low-level depression, a baroclinic zone and a dynamic tropopause anomaly. Phase space diagrams determined objectively the symmetry and the warm core structure of the system. The medicane was simulated by the non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model. The role of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the development of the medicane was investigated through numerical experiments in which climatological SSTs and uniform warm and cold SST anomalies were imposed. The motivation for such experiments has been provided by the occurrence of warm SST anomalies along its track. A strong medicane, with shorter lifetime, would have developed over the central Mediterranean Sea even if the SSTs were near the normal conditions of November.

The Mediterranean region is a unique area characterized by a large spectrum of atmospheric phenomena, some of which have a high impact on many aspects of human activities, safety and wellbeing. The area is long considered as a hot spot of such atmospheric phenomena deserving multidisciplinary scientific attention. The scientific research that has been carried out on these high impact atmospheric processes that occur in the Mediterranean area is indeed widespread and the available international literature is very extensive. The paper touches initially the temperature and precipitation regimes, followed by a discussion of floods and droughts. The exciting cyclogenetic patterns of explosive cyclones and medicanes are presented in separate sections. The lightning activity and the presence of dust and other pollutants are also presented herein. The atmospheric chemistry of the region which is increasingly becoming of utmost importance for the area under study is distinctly discussed. Attempts to modify the weather (the precipitation, in particular) are outlined too. The effects of climatic change on various atmospheric processes are considered throughout this paper, in addition to a dedicated section on temperature and precipitation.

The COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) was formed in October 1998, and its general goal is to develop, improve and maintain a non-hydrostatic limited-area atmospheric model. The COSMO model has been designed both for operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) as well as various scientific applications on the meso-β and meso-γ scale. Two tornado case studies were selected to investigate the ability of COSMO model to depict the characteristics of severe convective weather, which favoured the development of the associated storms. The first tornado (TR01) occurred, close to Ag. Ilias village, 8 Km north-western of Aitoliko city over western Greece on February 7, 2013, while the second tornado (TR02) was developed close to Palio Katramio village, 8 Km southern from Xanthi city over northern Greece on November 25, 2015. Although both tornadoes had a short lifetime, they caused significant damages. The COSMO.GR atmospheric model was initialized with analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting numerical products with spatial resolution of 0.02° (∼ 2 km) over the geographical domain of Greece depicted very well the severe convective conditions close to tornadoes formation. The Energy Helicity Index (EHI) diagnostic variable in both numerical simulations showed a gradual increase of values closing to the location and time of the tornadogenesis. Similar to EHI, the storm relative helicity (SRH) spatio-temporal analysis followed a gradual increase prior to the tornadogenesis events and was reduced after them.

Central Greece has a vital role in the financial life of the country, because of its significant agricultural production. The drought, which has prevailed throughout several years over the last decades and amplified by the increase of population and the water demand for irrigation, poses a serious threat. The aim on this article is, to determine the observed characteristics of convective activity in Thessaly plain, in the framework of a potential precipitation enhancement project in the area and to evaluate the performance of the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting modelling system with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW) as a valuable and useful tool for planning and performing such projects. To meet these objectives, the data information from April to September, for the years 2006–2010, are studied. Adopting the manual upper-air synoptic circulation types methodology, the examined cases are classified into distinct synoptic circulation patterns. Analogous radar information from a C-band (5-cm) weather radar system, through the TITAN algorithm, is used. The state-of-the-art WRF-ARW numerical model, with sophisticated microphysical parameterizations, is setup regarding domains and physics configuration, initialization data and justification for the adopted choices. The observed characteristics of convective activity are calculated, for each upper-air synoptic circulation type, during the examined time period. After pursuing the model verification procedures, high-resolution WRF simulations are performed, for selected case studies, under all the upper-air synoptic circulation types. The statistical evaluation of the model performance reveals that the upper-air synoptic circulation type of the cases plays an important role in the performance of the model. Nevertheless, in all the cases, the model performed adequately, giving results that match similar studies. Hence, the performed comparison between these two data sets reveals the usefulness of the WRF-ARW model in a potential rain enhancement program.

In this study, the physically-based hydrological model MIKE SHE was employed to investigate the effects of anthropogenic land cover changes to the hydrological cycle components of a regional watershed in Central Greece. Three case studies based on the land cover of the years 1960, 1990, and 2018 were examined. Copernicus Climate Change Service E-OBS gridded meteorological data for 45 hydrological years were used as forcing for the model. Evaluation against observational data yielded sufficient quality for daily air temperature and precipitation. Simulation results demonstrated that the climatic variabilities primarily in precipitation and secondarily in air temperature affected basin-averaged annual actual evapotranspiration and average annual river discharge. Nevertheless, land cover effects can locally outflank the impact of climatic variability as indicated by the low interannual variabilities of differences in annual actual evapotranspiration among case studies. The transition from forest to pastures or agricultural land reduced annual actual evapotranspiration and increased average annual river discharge while intensifying the vulnerability to hydrometeorological-related hazards such as droughts or floods. Hence, the quantitative assessment of land cover effects presented in this study can contribute to the design and implementation of successful land cover and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

Smallholder farmers produce about 70% of Africa’s food supply. These farmers are vulnerable to a number of risks, mainly climate related, which have a tremendous impact on food security and thus poverty. Information about crop yields, vegetation conditions and weather, among others, are essential to policy makers to enhance food security. Earth observation data, analytics and modeling from various sources, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales could be used to support policy and decision making in the field of food security. This paper describes crops, water and drought services that are being developed in the AfriCultuReS project. Preliminary results are presented, which reflect the uneven distribution of precipitation, water bodies, and vegetation conditions throughout Africa.

A three-dimensional cloud resolving model is used to study a real cell merger case that occurred on 10 August, 2008 over north-central Greece, causing heavy rainfall, hailfall and high-frequency lightning. Firstly, the storm is observed, analyzed and recorded using a C-band weather radar. Secondly, three distinct simulations are performed using a cloud resolving model. An unseeded simulation, in order to test the ability of the model to reproduce the structural and evolutionary properties of the storm and two seeded simulations in which seeding occurred before and after cell merging. Reflectivity fields are analyzed, horizontally and vertically, at different simulation times. The 3-D numerical simulations suggest that the merger process occurred by two or three isolated single-cells and formed during their SW–NE motion. The merging process apparently alters dynamical and microphysical properties through low and middle level forcing; increases cloud diameters and cloud depths, producing more graupel and ice particles and increases radar reflectivity values. Processed radar images depict a similar view of the storm structure, evolution and interactions of such merging processes. The model calculated maximum radar reflectivity values coincide with the recorded ones. Results indicate that seeding the cloud before its merging produces more positive effects on hail suppression than seeding after merging. These findings are quite important, in order to document the value of the cloud resolving model and its capability to simulate and reproduce the realistic storm processes and to provide a better understanding of the cloud dynamical and microphysical features related to different seeding approaches.

Recent research revealed that western Greece and NW Peloponnese are regions that favor prefrontal tornadic incidence. On March 25, 2009 a tornado developed approximately at 10:30 UTC near Varda village (NW Peloponnese). Tornado intensity was T4–T5 (TORRO scale) and consequently caused an economic impact of 350,000 € over the local society. The goals of this study are: (i) to analyze synoptic and remote sensing features regarding the tornado event over NW Peloponnese and (ii) to investigate the role of topography in tornadogenesis triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over that area. Synoptic analysis was based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data sets. The analysis of daily anomaly of synoptic conditions with respect to 30 years' climatology (1981–2010), was based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data sets. In addition, numerous remote sensing data sets were derived by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) weather station network in order to better interpret the examined tornado event. Finally, numerical modeling was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized by ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. The two numerical experiments were performed on the basis of: (a) the presence and (b) the absence of topography (landscape), so as to determine whether the occurrence of a tornado – identified by diagnostic instability indices – could be indicated by modifying topography. The energy helicity index (EHI), the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θ e ) were considered as principal diagnostic instability variables and employed in both numerical experiments. Furthermore, model verification was conducted, accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Synoptic analysis revealed that the synoptic weather conditions on March 25, 2009 are in agreement with the composite synoptic climatology for tornado days over western Greece. In addition, maximum daily anomalies at the barometric levels of 500, 700, 850 and 925 hPa were found, compared to the climatology of composite mean anomalies for tornado days over western Greece. Numerical simulations revealed that the topography of NW Peloponnese did not constitute an important factor during the tornado event on March 25, 2009, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

This study investigates an intense precipitation event and its lightning activity that affected northern Greece and primarily Thessaloniki on 15 July 2014. The precipitation measurement of 98.5 mm in 15 h at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki set a new absolute record maximum. The thermodynamic analysis indicated that the event took place in an environment that could support deep thunderstorm activity. The development of this intense event was associated with significant low-level convergence and upper-level divergence even before its triggering and a positive vertical gradient of relative vorticity advection. The high resolution (1.667 km × 1.667 km) non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model was used to simulate this intense precipitation event, while the Lightning Potential Index was utilized to calculate the potential for lightning activity. Sensitivity experiments suggested that although the strong synoptic forcing assumed primary role in the occurrence of intense precipitation and lightning activity, their spatiotemporal variability was affected by topography. The application of the very fine resolution topography of NASA Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission improved the simulated precipitation and the calculated lightning potential.

This study investigated two high-impact wildland fire events that took place on 23 July 2018 in Attica Region, Central Greece during extreme prevailing weather conditions. The tragic aftermath was 102 life losses in MATI fire event, the largest number of deaths from a fire event in history of the country. The synoptic analysis revealed the presence of a positively tilted trough over the Central Mediterranean and Balkans, propagating eastwards and interacting with the subtropical jet, resulting in a strong westerly flow over Greece. Several surface stations in the wider area recorded wind gusts exceeding 20 m s−1 between 12:00 and 17:30 UTC. The online coupled atmosphere-fire model WRF-SFIRE was utilized in order to simulate these extreme fire events and to investigate the role of the complex terrain to the mean flow and fire behavior. The numerical simulations revealed the presence of induced orographic waves, paths of high winds on the lee-slopes, transient resemblance of a hydraulic jump downstream of Penteli Mt. (MATI), while indicated a downward transport of energy and momentum during the maximum wind speed occurrences. The turbulent and dynamically unstable conditions on the lee-slopes of Gerania Mts. (KINETA) and Penteli Mt. contributed to the flow kinetic energy. Quite different influences of topography in each fire event were found, where the isolated Gerania Mts. contributed to warmer, drier and windier conditions leeward, while Penteli Mt. had a lesser impact on atmospheric variables downstream.

Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) is an important natural source of tropospheric ozone, which can occasionally influence ground-level ozone concentrations relevant for air quality. Here, we analyse and evaluate the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecast systems during a deep STT event over Europe for the time period from 4 to 9 January 2017. The predominant synoptic condition is described by a deep upper level trough over eastern and central Europe, favouring the formation of tropopause folding events along the jet stream axis and therefore the intrusion of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere. Both global and regional CAMS forecast products reproduce the “hook-shaped” streamer of ozone-rich and dry air in the middle troposphere depicted from the observed satellite images of water vapour. The CAMS global model successfully reproduces the folding of the tropopause at various European sites, such as Trapani (Italy), where a deep folding down to 550 hPa is seen. The stratospheric ozone intrusions into the troposphere observed by WOUDC ozonesonde and IAGOS aircraft measurements are satisfactorily forecasted up to 3 days in advance by the CAMS global model in terms of both temporal and vertical features of ozone. The fractional gross error (FGE) of CAMS ozone day 1 forecast between 300 and 500 hPa is 0.13 over Prague, while over Frankfurt it is 0.04 and 0.19, highlighting the contribution of data assimilation, which in most cases improves the model performance. Finally, the meteorological and chemical forcing of CAMS global forecast system in the CAMS regional forecast systems is found to be beneficial for predicting the enhanced ozone concentrations in the middle troposphere during a deep STT event.

The development and evolution of a deep low-pressure system over the Eastern Mediterranean has been investigated in comparative numerical experiments with a limited area model using climatological, gridded analyses, satellite-derived and high-resolution re-analysis sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions. The severe event of 21–22 January 2004 was selected in view of its strength and considerable impact on the coastal communities of the Northern Aegean Sea. The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of storm development and intensity to the different SST sources. High resolution model simulations were performed resolving mesoscale features modulated by the different source of SSTs. Although the atmospheric response was considerable in terms of rain bands and surface fluxes, the general structure of the system was not significantly affected by the different air-sea interaction forcing. The impact on the model performance (and therefore its forecasting skill) was further assessed on the basis of quantitative verification statistics estimated throughout the period of the simulations. The methodology was based on the verification against surface observations from the World Meteorological Organization network, covering Southern Greece and the coastal areas of Western Turkey. The estimated statistical scores revealed small but noticeable deviations among the forecast skills of the simulations.

The year of 2012 is characterized, for Greece, as the hottest one in the available record dating back to 1958, presenting also the widest annual temperature range. During the summer and autumn months, numerous regions in the domain of study experienced record-breaking maximum and minimum temperatures. Conversely, the winter period was particularly cold and January was one of the coldest months in the last 55 yr. The analysis of the cold period indicates that the synoptic conditions resemble the positive phase of the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP). The predominance of these cool conditions seems to be primarily related to an intense NNW or NNE atmospheric circulation, as a consequence of the positive EMP phase. Moreover, the reduction of the floating sea ice emerged as a key driver to the formation of a low pressure pattern and the reinforcement of the trough south of Scandinavia, which in turn strengthened the Siberia High east of the trough. This reinforcement resulted in a blocking pattern and in the favorable conditions for the EMP formation The atmospheric circulation during the prolonged high-temperature period resembles, respectively, the negative phase of North Sea–Caspian Pattern teleconnection. The observed positive pole, in conjunction with the strong southwestern circulation, results in temperature increases and in the development of a smooth pressure field that contributes to the weakening of the Etesian winds and therefore to calm conditions over the continental areas.

An extensive work has been done by the Department of Meteorology and Climatology at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and others using a three-dimensional cloud resolving model to simulate AgI seeding by aircraft of three distinct hailstorm cases occurred over Greece in period 2007-2009. The seeding criterion for silver iodide glaciogenic seeding from air is based on the beneficial competition mechanism. According to thermodynamic analysis and classification proposed by Marwitz (1972a, b, and c) and based on their structural and evolutionary properties we classified them in three groups as singlecell, multicell and supercell hailstorms. The seeding optimization for each selected case is conducted by analysis of the thermodynamic characteristics of the meteorological environment as well as radar reflectivity fields observed by the state of the art Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN) software applied in the Greek National Hail Suppression Program (GNHSP). Results of this comprehensive study have shown positive effects with respect to hailfall decrease after successful seeding as our primarily objective. All three cases have illustrated 15-20% decrease in accumulated hailfall at the ground Seeded clouds have exhibited earlier development of precipitation and slight dynamical enhancement of the updraft and rainfall increase of ~10- 12.5%. The results have emphasized a strong interaction between cloud dynamics and microphysics, especially the subgrid scale processes that have impact on agent transport and diffusion in a complex environment. Comparisons between modelled and observed radar reflectivity also show a relatively good agreement. Simulated cloud seeding follows the operational aircraft seeding for hail suppression. The ability of silver-iodide particles to act as ice nuclei has been used to perform airborne cloud seeding, under controlled conditions of temperature and humidity. The seeding effects depend upon applying the seeding methodology in proper seeding time, right placement and agent dose rate.

The RegCM3/CAMx modeling system is applied to estimate near surface ozone trends over Europe for the time period 1996–2006. In order to assess the impact of changing anthropogenic emissions and meteorology on modeled ozone trends two simulations were performed: The first simulation (CONEM) was forced from constant anthropogenic emissions based on the EMEP emissions of the year 1996, while the second simulation (VAREM) was forced from year to year varying anthropogenic emissions based on the EMEP emissions of the years 1996–2006. Near surface ozone measurements from the EMEP database are used for assessing the skill of the modeling system to reproduce the observed ozone trends. Concerning VAREM simulation the main pattern is a significant positive annual trend over southern UK and Benelux which is also detected in the observations, attributed to the reduction of ozone titration by NO as a result of NOx emissions control policies. Significant negative ozone trends are found over the Mediterranean due to reduction of ozone precursors emissions over continental Europe. As far as it concerns CONEM simulation a significant increase of ozone is found during summer associated with the heatwave event of 2003. Overall, the observed ozone trends are captured fairly well by the RegCM3/CAMx modeling system over the highly polluted areas of central and western Europe but only partially reproduced or not captured at all at the rest of Europe, probably due to limitations of the model setup to capture background ozone variability related to processes such as intercontinental transport and stratosphere–troposphere exchange.

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over recent decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. While it has been established that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea to the west and the Aegean Sea to the east, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornadogenesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thebes (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) were selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensities were T4–T5 (on the TORRO scale), causing significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic weather research and forecasting model (WRF), initialized by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow for the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale. In the experiments, the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) −100% (without topography), making an effort to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes – mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices – could be indicated by modifying topography. The principal instability variables employed consisted of the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe). Additionally, a model verification was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography constituted an important factor during the 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses. Conversely, topography around the 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least significant factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

The aim of this study is to propose an evaluation methodology of CALIPSO retrievals of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height using the analyses of the operational early-delivery assimilation system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Radiosonde observations. The investigation is performed over Thessaloniki, Greece, for a period of almost 5 years between 2006 and 2011. Low correlations between CALIPSO and ECMWF are found when CALIPSO aerosol classification scheme reveals dust presence over Thessaloniki. When eliminating cases of dust advection, the correlation between CALIPSO and ECMWF improves considerably, reaching a value of 0.82, while the correlation between CALIPSO and radiosondes reaches 0.74. The proposed methodology for evaluation shows a good potential for future work when more stations will be considered. Taking into account the aforementioned limitations due to the presence of advected dust layers for the Mediterranean site investigated here, the CALIPSO PBL height could be considered a valuable satellite product for investigating the atmospheric boundary layer processes and for evaluating global and regional atmospheric models.

The Conceptual Model developed through the project DAPHNE is presented. Its development relied upon the 10-year period 2001–2010 surface and upper air meteorological measurements, the use of the state-of-the-art WRF numerical model with sophisticated microphysical parameterizations, the adaptation of the 3D cloud model for performing simulations of cloud seeding experiments, the radar information from the C-band weather radar through the TITAN algorithm, the conduction of instrumented aircraft flights for in-situ measurements and carrying out actual aircraft cloud seeding experiments on suitably chosen appropriate clouds over Thessaly area. It is believed, that it is for the first time, that all these state-of-science tools and aircraft observations are combined, in order to create the necessary fundamental principles for the development of the DAPHNE Conceptual Model that will potentially define the feasibility and applicability of a future rain enhancement program in Thessaly. The developed conceptual model potentially defines—if, when, where and how—a precipitation enhancement program would be applicable over the examined area. It sets the spatial, temporal and meteorological conditions that must be met, so that cloud seeding of appropriate cloud types will be feasible, aiming in precipitation enhancement and mitigation of drought in the area of Thessaly.

In this work the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to a choice of parameterization modulating the cloud-radiation feedbacks is assessed. Two 5-year (1990–1994) climate simulations covering Europe were conducted using WRF-ARW v3.6.1 with 0.44° spatial resolution. In the base-case, WRF does not consider cumulus cloud feedbacks to radiation, while in the modified case the subgrid-scale cloudiness associated with convection, is taken into account. The results are compared with the base case and the differences for shortwave downward radiation at the surface, total cloud cover and convective available potential energy (CAPE) are discussed. Our analysis indicates that including subgrid-scale cumulus clouds in the radiation scheme leads to a decrease of shortwave radiation at the surface and convective precipitation. The behavior of CAPE is more complex and can be either decreasing (southern Europe) or increasing (northern Europe).

The storm surge, i.e. sea-level elevation due to severe atmospheric conditions (strong winds and low pressures), is a major factor of coastal inundation that can induce significant problems over low-land areas. ‘WaveForUs’ is a high-resolution forecasting system for public and emergency use that delivers meteorological and sea-state predictions over the Mediterranean Sea (0.15°). The results of a 2-D hydrodynamic model, that simulates the sea-surface elevation due to the combined effect of atmospheric forcing (pressure and wind) and astronomical tides, are used to estimate the total surge along the coasts. The meteorological model used is the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver. We investigate the relation between extreme surge events and the atmospheric low-pressure systems during two severe weather events that appeared in the 2013–2015 period. Comparisons with the available satellite and in situ observations and gridded analyses show the good performance of the operational system. The morphological changes over a coastal region (e.g. orientation, existence of straits and islands) play an important role on the storm surge variability during a severe atmospheric low-pressure event. The seasonal variation of both weather storms and storm surges during the study period is also under investigation.

In a computing intensive discipline as numerical weather forecasting scientists were usually bound to perform either high resolution simulations for limited time or long range simulations in lower resolutions. The advent of high-performance computing (HPC) systems provided meteorologists the ability to perform research in areas never explored before. In the present study an attempt is made to evaluate the performance of the WRF model (WRF-ARW ver3.7.1) using different parameterization schemes. The objective of the evaluation is the selection of the proper setup of the model to be used for long term high-resolution simulations; the endmost goal being the creation of a reliable high resolution climatic dataset. WRF is integrated in three domains, with the high resolution domain (1.667 km × 1.667 km) covering the wider Greek area. By alternating microphysics and boundary layer schemes we perform three experiments and we investigate their performance. It is shown that new updates incorporated in the latest model versions improve the results while keeping computer time cost within reasonable values.

A hurricane-like cyclone with an ‘eye’, eyewall convection and strong winds affected central Mediterranean basin on 7–8 November 2014. The maximum observed sustained wind speed was 22 m/s (tropical storm strength) at Lampedusa. Significant damages were reported from this island and the coastal regions of eastern Sicily. Thus, it is essential to study medicanes and calibrate the numerical weather prediction models in order to simulate them adequately. Operational ECMWF analyses are used together with the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW ver 3.7.1). The aims of this study are to simulate the system and investigate the sensitivity of the model on the microphysical scheme, the number of vertical levels and the global input dataset. The main characteristics of the medicane are represented in good agreement with observations and analyses, but, no single setup is able to provide the best reproduction of all its features.

The present study examines the annual variation of falling dust particles and their mineralogical composition and organic material in the city of Thessaloniki during June 2012-May 2013. Mineralogical analysis and organic material were conducted in the

The COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) was formed in October 1998, and its general goal is to develop, improve and maintain a non-hydrostatic limited-area atmospheric model, while the Hellenic National Meteorological Service joined the consortium in 1999. The COSMO model has been designed both for operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) as well as various scientific applications on the meso-β and meso-γ scale. Two tornado case studies were selected to investigate the ability of COSMO model to depict the characteristics of severe convective weather, which favored the development of the associated storms. The first tornado occurred, close to Ag. Ilias village, 8 km northwestern from Aitoliko city over western Greece on February 7, 2013, while the second tornado developed close to Palio Katramio village, 8 km southern from Xanthi city over northern Greece on November 25, 2015. Although both tornadoes had a short lifetime, they caused significant impacts. The COSMO.GR atmospheric model was initialized with analysis boundary conditions obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting numerical products with spatial resolution of 0.020° (∼2 km) over the geographical domain of Greece depicted very well the severe convective conditions close to tornadoes formation.

This paper presents an analysis of the exceptionally high maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures which occurred during November 2010 and affected the entire Greek region. This severe "warm cold-season spell" was unusual because of its prolonged duration and intensity for the entire month and particularly the maximum temperature anomalies, which in comparison with the 1958–2000 climatological average, exceeded 5 °C at several stations. Comparing the observed record with future projections from three regional climate models revealed that Tmax and Tmin, on several days in November 2010, exceeded the 90th percentile of the simulated data. An examination of the atmospheric – synoptic conditions during this period showed that the anomalous high temperatures could probably be related to the negative phase of the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), with an intense pole of negative anomalies located over the British Isles, and to the east, a second pole of positive anomalies, centred over the Caspian Sea. Finally, an attempt is made to further investigate the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, for example, the thermal forcing in the tropics (Niño 3 or Niño 3.4).

An attempt is made to couple the one dimensional COBEL-ISBA (Code de Brouillard a l’Echelle Locale-Interactions Soil Biosphere Atmosphere) model with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)–ARW (Advanced Research WRF) numerical weather prediction model to study a fog event that formed on 20 January 2008 over Thessaloniki Airport, Greece. It is the first time that the coupling of COBEL and WRF models is achieved and applied to a fog event over an airport. At first, the performance of the integrated WRF–COBEL system is investigated, by validating it against the available surface observations. The temperature and humidity vertical profiles were used for initializing the model. The performance of WRF–COBEL is considered successful, since it realistically simulated the fog onset and dissipation better than the WRF alone. The COBEL’s sensitivity to initial conditions such as temperature and specific humidity perturbations was also tested. It is found that a small increase of temperature (~1°C) counteracts fog development and results in less fog density. On the other hand, a small decrease of temperature results in much denser fog formation. It is concluded that the integrated model approach for aviation applications can be useful to study fog impact on local traffic and aviation.

Tornadoes are furious convective weather phenomena, with the maximum frequency over Greece during the cold period (autumn, winter).This study analyzes the tornado event that occurred on 12 February 2010 near Vrastama village, at Chalkidiki's prefecture, a non urban area 45 km southeast of Thessaloniki in northern Greece. The tornado developed approximately between 17:10 and 17:35 UTC and was characterized as F2 (Fujita Scale). The tornado event caused several damages to an industrial building and at several olive-tree farms. A synoptic survey is presented along with satellite images, radar products and vertical profile of the atmosphere. Additionally, the nonhydrostatic WRF-ARW atmospheric numerical model (version 3.2.0) was utilized in analysis and forecast mode using very high horizontal resolution (1.333 km × 1.333 km) in order to represent the ambient atmospheric conditions. A comparison of statistical errors between WRF-ARW forecasts and ECMWF analysis is presented, accompanied with LGTS 12:00 UTC soundings (Thessaloniki Airport) and forecast soundings in order to verify the WRF-ARW model. Additionally, a comparison between WRF-ARW and ECMWF thermodynamic indices is also presented. The WRF-ARW high spatial resolution model appeared to simulate with significant accuracy a severe convective event with a lead period of 18 h.

High frequency of agricultural fires is observed every year during the summer months over SW Russia and Eastern Europe. This study investigates the initial injection height of aerosol generated by the fires over these regions during the biomass burning season, which determines the potential for long-range transport of the smoke. This information is critical for aerosol transport modeling, as it determines the smoke plume evolution. The study focuses on the period 2006–2008, and is based on observations made by the CALIOP instrument on board the NASA CALIPSO satellite. MODIS data are synergistically used for the detection of the fires and the characterization of their intensity. CALIPSO aerosol vertical distributions generated by the active fires are analyzed to investigate the aerosol top height which is considered dependent on the heat generated by the fires and can be associated with the initial injection height. Aerosol top heights of the vertically homogenous smoke layers are found to range between 1.6 and 5.9 km. Smoke injection heights from CALIPSO are compared with mixing layer heights taken by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), to investigate the direct injection of smoke particles into the free troposphere. Our results indicate that the aerosol plumes are observed within the boundary layer for the 50% of the cases examined. For the rest of the cases, the strong updrafts generated by the fires resulted to smoke injection heights greater than the ECMWF estimated mixing layer by 0.5 to 3.0 km, indicating a direct smoke injection into the free troposphere. The smoke injection height showed a dependence on the MODIS-Land Fire Radiative Power product which is indicative of the fire intensity, especially in the cases of lower static stability in the upper part of the boundary layer and the free troposphere.

This case study investigates a stratospheric intrusion event down to the earth’s surface (near sea-level pressure) of the greater area of Athens (23.43°E 37.58°N), which occurred on 9 October 2003 and caused a remarkable increase in surface ozone concentrations not related to photochemical production. This event is among the rare case studies investigating, on the one hand, a deep stratospheric intrusion down to the earth’s surface at near sea-level pressure and, on the other, an event affecting the near surface ozone of a megacity such as Athens. The synoptic situation is described by a deep upper lever trough at 300 and 500 hPa extending over Greece, which is related to a deep tropopause fold as revealed by vertical cross sections of potential vorticity, relative humidity, divergence and vertical velocity. The analysis of potential vorticity at several isentropic levels indicates a hook-shaped streamer of high PV values (greater than 4 pvu at the 315 K isentropic level) over southeast Europe, which coincides with a streamer of dry air as observed from satellite images of water vapor. The aforementioned structure characterizes a textbook case study of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate the trajectories of air particles reaching the receptor site and the fraction of particles with stratospheric origin. It reveals an important direct stratospheric impact within 1 day related to the tropopause fold described in this study with the fraction of stratospheric particles reaching maximum values of 1.9 and 4.5% for threshold values of the dynamical tropopause 2 and 1.5 pvu, respectively. Furthermore, a larger indirect aged stratospheric contribution is also revealed 4 to 5 days prior to the release, related to stratospheric intrusion events at the western Atlantic Ocean, reaching maximum values of 2.5 and 6.9% of particles crossing the 2 and 1.5 pvu potential vorticity surfaces, respectively.

A frequent area of waterspout formation is identified over the southern Aegean Sea. The objectives of this study are threefold: (1) to investigate the temporal evolution of Cloud Top Temperature (CTT) of cloud lines (waterspouts' parent clouds) that triggered the formation of single or multiple waterspout events, by using Meteorological Satellite Second Generation infrared satellite data, cloud base height data and weather observations from the closest Hellenic National Meteorological Service meteorological station; (2) to synthesize a detailed climatology of the thermodynamic environment during waterspout activity and (3) to explore the sea-surface temperature (SST) seasonal distribution and its possible relationships with the temperature of the middle and lower troposphere during waterspout days over the southern Aegean Sea. It was found that the CTT of waterspout parent clouds decreases close to waterspout formation time, which is consistent with growing clouds. The Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT), the Bulk Richardson Number (BRN) and the Convective Potential Available Energy during the autumn season were consistent with a shallow-convection environment. The instability parameter ΔT1000 (difference in the air temperature between 1000 hPa and that at other pressure levels) exhibited a symmetric distribution about the median during both seasons and at all levels. More than 75% of autumn waterspout activity over the southern Aegean Sea developed with SST values varying from 22 to 24.5 °C, while the instability parameter ΔTSST (the temperature difference between the SST and the temperature at various pressure levels) exhibited a symmetrical distribution about the median for both seasons and for all pressure levels, consistent with the ΔT1000 seasonal distribution. A statistical analysis showed that the means of SWEAT, BRN, convective inhibition, SST, ΔTSST and ΔT1000 from air temperature at 700 hPa differ statistically significant (p