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This study aims to show the response of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to monetary policy (represented by money supply and interest rate) and fiscal policy (represented by tax revenues) in Nigeria during the period (1990–2021). The autoregressive distributed lag approach is employed to estimate long‐run relationship among variables. The results indicate that there is cointegrating long‐run relationship among the study variables. The study provides empirical evidence showing that an increase in the percentage of money supply to gross domestic product (GDP) by (0.971%) leads to a decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), an increase in the percentage of tax revenues to GDP by (4.256%) leads to a decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), an increase in interest rate by (1.164%) leads to decrease in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.975%), and an increase in inflation rate by (0.329%) leads to increase in the percentage of FDI inflows to GDP by (0.905%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to examine the effect of a direct relationship between the use of e-money and the circulation of money on interest rates, as well as an indirect effect, namely through the intervening variable gross domestic product. This research method uses a statistical model of path analysis. The sample used was secondary data fetched from the Website of Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), since regulation on electronic payment method was officially issued by Bank Indonesia in May 2009-March 2023. The test results shows that e-money and money supply each, have a significant positive effect on gross domestic product variables. Gross domestic product variables had a negative effect on interest rates. E-money and money supply variables has a negative effect on interest rates, both directly or indirectly through the intervening variable of gross domestic product. Increasing e-money user and money supply, preponderant to gross domestic product, can decrease the interest rate. The results of this research are expected to provide benefits as a prediction of the Indonesian economy in the future, as a result of the issuance of electronic payment instruments. So for the regulators, they can set the right interest rate policy to be able to maintain stable economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Bulletin of Accounting & Finance Reviews / Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi is the property of Muhasebe & Finans Incelemeleri Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Four indicators corresponding to the four targets of the European Monetary Union were calculated. The study showed that: (a) concerning the deviation of state's general government deficit/surplus from 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), all member states had reached their target, with the exception of Cyprus, which was slightly under the target, (b) concerning the deviation of state's general government debt from 60% of GDP, half of all European Union (EU) member states did not reach their targets, and there was a lot to be done, especially from the EU15 member states, (c) concerning the deviation of state's inflation rate from the mean of the three states with best results of +1.5%, it was observed that the average value of EU28 member states had reached the final target, mainly due to the performances of the EU15 member states, (d) and concerning the deviation of state's interest rate from the mean of the three states with the best results of +2%, it was observed that the average value of EU28 member states had reached the final target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a pricing formula for a defaultable zero-coupon bond with imperfect information under a regime switching model using a structural form of credit risk modelling. This paper provides explicit representations of risky debt under regime switching with a constant interest rate and risky debt under regime switching with a regime switching interest rate. While the value of the firm's equity is observed continuously, we assume that the total value of the firm is only observed at discrete times, such as the dates of the release of the firm's annual reports, or quarterly reports. This uncertainty about the true value of the firm results in credit spreads that do not approach zero as the debt approaches maturity, which is a problem with many structural models. The firm's value is typically decomposed into its equity and debt; however, we consider the asset–to–equity ratio, an accounting ratio used to examine a firm's financial well-being. The parameters in our model are regime switching, where the regime can be thought of as the state of the economy. A Markov chain with a constant transition rate matrix produces the regime switching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the effects of political instability on financial development in the West African Economic and Monetary Union region (WAEMU) countries. The results are obtained using the autoregressive staggered lag model (ARDL) over an analysis period from 2002 to 2021. The main reason for this analysis period is the availability of data. The results show that political instability reduces financial development by lowering financial efficiency. Moreover, inflation tends to increase the negative effects of political instability on financial development. On the other hand, the interest rate manages to mitigate the negative effects of political instability on financial development. The results therefore suggest that measures should be taken to mitigate the risks of political instability. Consequently, the results suggest the development of policies against rising inflation and for the revision of interest rates in order to influence the level of political instability and financial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of housing prices in Serbia, addressing the critical need to understand the drivers of real estate prices and their implications for economic and social welfare. Employing a panel data analysis approach on a unique dataset covering 24 distinct urban areas in Serbia from 2011 to 2021, we examine the relevance of diverse economic, demographic, and infrastructural indicators, providing novel insights within a developing country context. Our findings reveal that the housing market stock-flow model effectively predicts housing price appreciation trends, explaining over 60 percent of variation in property prices. Notably, disparities in labour income, captured by average wages and registered employment rates, emerge as significant determinants of real estate prices, underlining socio-economic disparities within Serbian cities. Housing prices exhibit a positive response to the population/housing stock ratio, suggesting higher prices in cities experiencing faster population growth relative to housing supply. Intensified construction is associated with elevated housing prices. Additionally, we find positive association between the inflation variable and housing prices, underlining real estate's potential as an inflation hedge. Public service provision and infrastructural amenities also emerge as contributors to higher housing prices in urban areas, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive urban planning strategies. Our study contributes to the literature by providing specific quantitative evidence, advancing the understanding of urban housing market dynamics in developing countries. By offering nuanced insights into determinants of housing prices, our research informs policymakers and urban planners seeking to foster equitable and sustainable urban development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Luigi Pasinetti voiced his objections to the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) at its very inception, in the late 1990s. The SGP has by now been in existence for almost one-quarter of a century. Its historical trajectory has proven its critics right, while its repeated revisions over time have increased its complexity and ineffectiveness to the point where the European Commission embarked on a process of overhaul, ending in a new EU fiscal governance framework. In the present article, we argue that Pasinetti's objections remain valid today, twenty-five years after he exposed them in a series of articles. The new version of the Stability and Growth Pact remains focused on debt reduction, ignores the role of money and of finance and keeps fiscal policy apart from the rest of the economy. The chances that it will succeed where its previous versions failed appear slim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates under different international monetary systems from the perspective of monetary sovereignty. The findings of this paper confirm conventional accounts of financial crowding-out and the adverse impact of growing public debt on interest rates among countries under the classical Gold Standard period (1879–1913) and non-sovereign countries under the recent fiat system (1973–2016). By contrast, countries in the Bretton Woods era (1959–1970) and sovereign countries in the contemporary post-Bretton Woods era (1973–2016) do not exhibit such positive debt-interest rates relationships while still showing crowding-out but with much less magnitude. Overall, the results support the Modern Money Theory (MMT) view that the consequence of monetary sovereignty from 1879 to 2016 is to remove, or greatly attenuate, the impact of default risk, fiscal balance, and bond vigilantes on the interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to empirically test the effect of interest rates and inflation on economic growth, with gross capital formation as a control variable. This research uses panel data from 5 ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand in 2004 – 2021 and was tested using the Random Effect Model (REM) analysis technique. The results of this study explain that interest rates and inflation have a simultaneous effect on economic growth. Another finding from this study is that interest rates have a significantly negative effect on economic growth and inflation has a significant positive effect on economic growth. However, this study is subject to several limitations. First, it solely focuses on ASEAN-5 countries, thus limiting the generalizability of the findings to other developed and developing nations. Second, the study’s reliance on annual data from 2004 to 2021 excludes more recent data, potentially overlooking current economic trends. Third, the static panel method utilized with the REM analysis only provides a broad overview of the relationships between interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, lacking deeper insights into long-term and short-term dynamics. Fourth, while the study covers the period including the COVID-19 pandemic, it fails to thoroughly explore its impact and provide detailed explanations. Thus, future research should consider expanding the scope beyond ASEAN-5, incorporating more recent data, employing dynamic panel methods, and thoroughly investigating the implications of significant events such as the COVID-19 pandemic on the examined relationships.

The role of foreign exchange interventions in monetary policy conduct is an ongoing debatable issue, especially in inflation-targeting emerging economies, where monetary authority can follow other targets rather than price stability. This paper examines whether interventions in foreign exchange markets affect the setting of interest rates in countries where price stability is the main target of monetary policy. We used the ARDL model to investigate the matter of the intervention policy as well as its asymmetric impacts on monetary policy. The results provide evidence of the significant effect of foreign exchange interventions on monetary policy in inflation-targeting emerging economies, implying the existence of fear of floating. Particularly, interest rate changes can mitigate or accommodate the intervention policy, depending on countries. Furthermore, the interventions have asymmetric effects on monetary policy, showing the bias toward sales interventions. While sales interventions play a more pronounced effect in most emerging economies, excepting for Mexico where purchase intervention effect is of more importance.

Forecasting and modelling of price dynamics of financial instruments and their volatility is an essential element of technical analysis of financial markets. The real sector is also interested in changes in volatility as it seeks to maintain stability in financial and commodity markets. The article aims to develop methodological approaches to modelling the dynamics and volatility of the Ukrainian corporate credit market using asymmetric GARCH approaches. It has been established that the risky nature of financial markets is a prerequisite for analyzing and modeling the volatility of their dynamics in order to correctly respond to possible spikes in volatility, as well as to predict their duration. The analysis was based on daily data on interest rates on the corporate credit market. A graph of the initial time series, autocorrelation functions was plotted, the series was checked for stationarity by the Dickey–Fuller test, which led to its differentiation and subsequent formation of the optimal ARIMA specification. When checking the residuals for autocorrelation and the ARCH effect, positive results were obtained, which led to the use of the GARCH model. Going through various GARCH specifications made it possible to choose GJR-GARCH for modeling, which takes into account the asymmetry of the impact of information shocks on the profitability management of active bank operations. The resulting model was tested by the Leung–Box test, the ARCH LM test, and the Pearson test for the optimality of the specification. The model was compared with actual time series data. All the results confirmed the correctness of the built models, which allows them to be used for analysis and forecasting for further periods.

When there are some restrictions on the random variables of insurance risk model, it is impossible to calculate the exact value of ruin probabilities. For these cases, even finding a suitable approximation, is very important from a practical point of view. In the present paper, we consider the renewal insurance surplus model with light-tailed claim amount distributions and try to find some inequalities on the infinite time ruin probability depending on the amount of initial reserve using statistical and mathematical approaches if the assumption of net profit does not hold but there exist some other restrictions on the mathematical functions of random variables of model. The assertions depend on the amount of initial reserve, distribution of nonnegative claim occurrences times and successive claim amounts are obtained. Finally, to show the application and effectiveness of given theorems two examples are presented. Through these examples, the infinite time ruin probabilities are estimated using Monte Carlo simulation and give an intuitive way to understand the nature of ruin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of great significance to empirical test the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Most existing empirical literature using cointegration test with monthly data. With the easier access to high frequency data, using high frequency data to empirical test can reduce information loss and get more reliable conclusion. This paper proposes a new method which is called functional cointegration test and empirical test the expectation theory hypothesis using Chinese treasure yield daily data which contains 3001 trading days from 2011 to 2022 with 14 different maturities. The empirical results show that all 91 groups of different long-term and short-term interest rates combinations have significant cointegration relationship. The expectation theory hypothesis valid for all long-term and short-term interest rates combinations in China. This paper provides a new functional data analysis perspective for the empirical test of the expectation theory hypothesis, and also explores the application of functional data analysis in economic field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to examine the relationship between interest rates and inflation in Pakistan, specifically considering the Fisher effect and the non-Fisher effect. The ongoing debate regarding whether raising interest rates contributes to higher inflation rather than effectively controlling it has motivated our research. To investigate this, we utilize time-varying vector auto-regressive and Granger causality tests. Our findings reveal the significance of the neo-Fisher effect, particularly from 2015 onwards, compared to the traditional Fisher effect in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on earlier research, two primary categories of characteristics influence bank profitability. First, each bank has a unique set of profitability drivers that are often the direct outcome of management choices (quality, size, capitalization, efficiency, asset structure, and revenue divergence). The second group of determinants consists of elements like industry concentration, economic growth, inflation, and interest rates related to the profitability of the industry formation and the macroeconomic environment in which the banking system conducts. Capital adequacy may be defined as the ratio of the institution’s main capital to its assets, including loans and investments, to gauge a financial institution’s stability and strength. This paper examines the correlation between capital adequacy and banks’ profitability through the moderating impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates in the banking sectors of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey. To this end, panel data were gathered from the OIC statistics database concerning 2010 and 2021. The study’s regression analysis exposed that although inflation has a significant negative influence on banks’ profitability, while the capital adequacy ratio, exchange rate, and interest rate have positive and significant impacts. Regarding the moderating effect, both inflation and interest rates have a significant positive and negative impact on the relationship between banks’ profitability and capital adequacy, respectively. Additionally, macroeconomic variable interactions with capital adequacy are not statistically significant.

This paper is devoted to the issues of determining the upper and lower limits of an economically reasonable interest rate on debt obligations. The purpose of the study is to determine the boundaries of an economically reasonable interest rate on debt obligations, taking into account the main conditions of the loan relations: security, urgency, frequency of payments, availability (absence) measures of state support, etc. In the course of the study, such methods as content analysis of sources, regulatory regulation, and market analysis were used. The study is based on the analysis of the norms of the relationship between economic entities, taking into account the conditions for implementation of state support in socially significant areas of economic relations. In order to study the pay ability of debt obligations, the author analyzed the rules of tax legislation. It examined legal acts which revealed the facts of the use of terms of relationships other than those applied in the open market. Identified reasons for the existence of conditions of credit and borrowing relations, other than economically reasonable: interaction of affiliates, bonded terms of the transaction. The author discloses the concept of an “economically reasonable interest rate on debt obligations”, which arose as a result of the inadmissibility (taking into account the rules of regulatory legal acts and established judicial practice) of the use of the term “market value” in relation to loan relations. The results demonstrated that the values of interest rates on debt obligations have an economically reasonable linkage (through the specified multiples of the key rate values). From the point of view of the interest rate on loan obligations, debt obligations are divided into corresponding magnified groups (debt obligations between affiliates; preferential debt liabilities; debts taking into account the degree of risk of the borrower and the security of borrowing resources). The author makes a conclusion about the revealed fundamental patterns in relation to economically reasonable interest rates on debt obligations, taking into account contractual terms between economic entities.

The budget deficit is a quasi-generalized constant of the contemporary world. Like any fundamental concept, it has been the subject of study in various schools of economic thought and thus its content has been reconsidered over time. In our analysis we aim to provide a diagnosis of the budget balance over the period and of the factors having an impact on its structure and effects, with a view to capturing the process in both static and dynamic terms. Finally, we hope to formulate some conclusions and projections on the effects of the budget deficit on the national economy,

The questions on long-term planning of an enterprise’ bonded loan interest rate payments have been studied. The methods have been considered and the classification of methods for planning the bonds interest rate proposed. Several groups of such planning methods have been singled out. The analysis of application of bond interest rate planning methods applied by enterprises of different national industries has been made. The analysis has been carried out in the spheres of mechanical engineering, generation, transmission and sales of electric power, ferrous metals production, transportation and logistics, foodstuffs production, and information transmission provision. Corporate bond issues issued between 2015 and 2020 have been analyzed. As a result, the three methods most frequently used by enterprises in planning bond interest rates have been identified: methods of considering the macroeconomic risk of an organization; methods of considering the combination of macroeconomic and individual risk of an organization; methods based on market analysis. The study of the mentioned methods allowed us to propose a method of planning the bond interest rate, which calculates the weighted average of the forecast bond interest rate. To assess the quality of the proposed method, it has been tested. The article concludes that it can be used at enterprises planning to issue their own bonded loans.

Using a panel ARDL model, this study examines the relationship between stock prices and prices in other marketplaces. Examining data for 19 emerging market nations from January 2004 to December 2022, the study investigates how gold prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation affect stock prices. With the exception of gold, the data show a persistently negative association between the variables in the long run. Short-term impacts are negligible overall, with the exception of gold's drawbacks. The 2008 global financial crisis had a short- and long-term negative impact on emerging market stock markets. The COVID-19 epidemic first caused stock market returns to decline, but eventually these effects reverse. In order to promote long-term growth in stock markets, this study emphasizes the significance of prudent fiscal policies meant to lessen government domination in financial markets and solid monetary policies centered on price stability.

The methods that a country’s central bank uses to control the total amount of money in circulation and affect trade, consumption, and economic growth are collectively referred to as monetary policy. A monetary expansionary policy entails a reduction in interest rates. As borrowing costs decrease, customers are encouraged to borrow more money and spend more, which boosts consumer spending and promotes economic growth. On the other hand, when interest rates rise during contractionary monetary policy, saving becomes more appealing while borrowing becomes more expensive. As a result, consumers may cut down on spending, which has an impact on aggregate consumption. Businesses are encouraged to invest by lower interest rates brought on by expansionary policies. They may borrow money more cheaply, which boosts imports, company expansion, and capital expenditures. Trade can increase if expansionary measures cause the home currency to weaken and become more appealing to export. In contrast, exports can be hampered by a rising currency. In conclusion, trade dynamics, corporate investment, and consumption patterns should be all greatly impacted by monetary policy measures. In order to find out some evidence about the monetary policy and its impact on consumption and trade in Romania, the paper uses statistical information from the National Bank of Romania between 2003 and 2023 for the monetary policy interest rate. This is going to be assessed base on its impact upon: Final consumption expenditure of general government; Final consumption expenditure of households; Gross capital formation; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; all of this taken from Eurostat. The results should point out if an increase or decrease of monetary policy interest rate is going to produce an impact upon consumption and trade, or the contrary is going to take place.

Purpose This study examined the effect of the risk-free rate of return and other macroeconomic variables on the stock prices of firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 (PSX). Methodology The data from 2013 to 2023 was collected from the Karachi Stock Exchange website, Yahoo Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan’s website. The main techniques for data analysis were Johansen-Juselius (J.J.) cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Findings The findings show that a risk-free rate significantly impacts stock returns in the long run. Further, foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant positive impact on the stock return of listed companies. The cointegration result indicates a long-run association among all the selected variables. Moreover, the results of the VECM show that the error correction term (ECT) in VECM (-1) is negative (-0.150) and significant. The negative coefficient of 0.150 indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium will be corrected at a speed of 15% per period, approximately within 7 months. Conclusion The study concludes that stock prices and macroeconomic indicators have long-run associations. Conversely, changes in the risk-free rate of return by the government or the banking sector have the opposite effect on stock prices. This study assists government officials, stock market participants, and policymakers in determining the profitability of the National Savings Scheme and Banks.

The research relevance is predefined by the need to explain the nature of inflation and assess the effectiveness of anti-inflationary policy in Poland. The research aims to study the factors that cause price growth and the tools to reduce its pace during the global economic crisis. The following research methods were used: analysis of statistical data on inflation dynamics; comparison – for comparing price growth indices; expert estimates – for forecasting inflation; graphical – for displaying results; and generalisation – for summarising information on the use of inflation reduction tools. The main results obtained in this study are: determination of the dynamics of producer price indices, consumer prices and the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator in Poland; comparison of Poland’s inflation rate with other European countries and justification of the reasons for its rapid growth; analysis of the use of inflation targeting in Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary; and assessment of the effectiveness of the central bank’s increase in the key interest rate and required reserve ratios, as well as the impact of these instruments on the inflation rate in Poland; proving the non-monetary nature of inflation and identifying its main drivers in the period 2020-2023 (coronavirus pandemic, rising global energy and food prices, war in Ukraine); identifying the effects of lowering value-added tax (VAT) rates on certain goods on inflation and tax revenues to the Polish budget; comparing the forecast inflation rate and GDP growth by the end of 2023 and 2024-2025 based on expert estimates; substantiating the ways to slow down inflation, considering a wide range of external factors affecting the Polish economy. The results and conclusions are of practical importance for the Government of the country and managers of the banking sector in developing measures to regulate the rate of price growth.

The relevance of the study is due to the turbulent development of European economies, which directly affects the choice of monetary policy regime. This policy is characterised by quantitative easing (QE) in response to weak demand during a prolonged recession. Today, European central banks continue to use QE and short-term interest rates as additional instruments of conventional policy to curb inflation and stimulate economic growth. The purpose of the article is to analyse the monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE) and its impact on inflation dynamics in European countries. The research methodology includes a systematic method of cognition to determine the feasibility of using conventional and non-conventional monetary policy instruments to overcome monetary shocks of recession; an abstract and logical method to understand the monetary policy strategy of European central banks in the post-crisis period, based on short-term interest rate cuts under the inflation targeting regime; a statistical method to analyse the dynamics of inflation in national economies. Results. The article presents a retrospective analysis of the quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy and its impact on the inflationary processes of European countries in the medium term. The practical significance of the research results is to assess the consequences of the application of the monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE) in developed European countries and to analyse the deviations of central banks' inflation forecasts from its actual values. The originality of the article is due to the need to determine the prospects for the application of the monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE) and its impact on inflationary processes in the post-crisis period. Conclusions. Lower interest rates and increased public spending stimulate aggregate demand, which results in an unwinding of the inflationary spiral. The transition to inflation targeting and interest rate hikes rarely occurs in a neutral macroeconomic environment. In practice, especially in emerging economies, monetary policy tightening is often a reaction to external shocks. Crises of this type are accompanied by a sharp jump in devaluation, inflation, a decline in GDP, instability in the financial sector, and a slowdown in economic growth. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has had an impact on the economies of European countries. The uncertainty of the duration of the hostilities is holding back economic activity. Trade disruptions are leading to new shortages of materials and inputs. Rising energy and raw material prices are reducing supply and demand. The development of the European economy will crucially depend on how events in Ukraine develop, under the influence of external sanctions imposed by the aggressor country and possible further measures. At the same time, economic activity is still supported by the economic recovery from the crisis phase of the pandemic. Inflation increased significantly and remained high in 2023, mainly due to a sharp rise in energy prices. Inflationary pressures increased in many sectors of the economy.

This research investigates the interplay between exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates, collectively influencing economic growth in the ASEAN Region. The study constructs a comprehensive analytical framework based on economic theories like purchasing power parity, monetary theories of inflation, and the International Fisher Effect theory of interest. It aims to discern the individual and interactive effects of exchange rate movements, inflation, and interest rate fluctuations on overall economic output. Through empirical analysis covering 2007 to 2022 in Southeast Asia, using a saturated sample, the study employs statistical models and time-series analysis. Classical assumption tests, descriptive statistics, and path analysis unravel the nuanced influence of these macroeconomic factors on GDP variations. Findings indicate that exchange rates have a positive yet statistically insignificant impact on inflation while significantly and positively influencing interest rates. Inflation, in turn, significantly affects interest rates. Exchange rates negatively impact gross domestic product, supporting the idea that a competitive real exchange rate fosters growth in developing regions. Additionally, inflation and interest rates negatively impact economic growth in the ASEAN Region, confirming the research hypotheses. This study provides significant insights into the intricate interactions shaping economic dynamics in Southeast Asia.

World financial markets development indicates an increase in the role of intentional reserves for international capital markets. The study aims to address, evaluate and analyse the international reserves, as well as their impact on the national economy. During the research data of graphical and statistical analysis, as well as the selection of information for analysis, generalization and methods of regulation of international reserves were used. The study analysed and systematised the goals and objectives, principles, risks, structure, functions of international reserves, factors that affect the international reserves, policy directions for the management of foreign exchange reserves, stages of the management process, as well as factors that depend on the number of intentional reserves. The dynamics of changes in Ukraine's intentional reserves; dependence of the change in the level of the foreign exchange reserves of Ukraine on the change in inflation via the analysis of macroeconomic data using the elasticity coefficient were analysed, and costs and sources of replenishment of the intentional reserves were analysed to determine the optimal size of foreign exchange reserves for the period from 2010 to 2023. One of the criteria for the adequacy of the international reserves was systematized, namely the coverage of at least three months of future imports of goods and services. The importance of the role of the international reserves in the economy of Ukraine is substantiated. The study identified the most important problems, as well as methods and ways of more effective management of intentional reserves are suggested. The practical value of the conducted research is that it allows for an increase in the efficiency of the management of international reserves in the context of ensuring financial security

This paper focuses on the examination of the long-run relationship between money supply and selected national and global stock indices. Detailed knowledge of this relationship can be used by analysts, investors and monetary policy makers. Analysis of the relationship was performed using a 2-stage Engle-Granger cointegration. First, the stationarity of the time series was tested, then both the long-term OLS model and the short-term EC model were estimated. Time series were always tested on the longest period for which data were available. The longterm dependence of stock indices on the respective M2 was confirmed for the BOVESPA, FTSE100, S&P/BMV IPC, S&P BSE500, TSX and The 5000 Wilshire Small Cap Price Return indices. In contrast, the dependence between world money supply indicator GlobalM2, the stock index FTSEALL World, and the S&P500 index was not demonstrated. Additionally, no dependence was identified between the respective M2 and the DAX, PX, Nikkei225, KOSPI, SMI, SPCITIC300, Eurostoxx50, Willshire5000PR and ATX indices. Backward dependence of M2 on the stock index was found only for the Chinese SPCITIC300 index.

The issuance of bonds by the government attracts the interest of many investors, including foreigners. The government must understand the factors determining bond yields for managing government debt. This study aims to investigate the effect of domestic and global macroeconomic variables on government bond yields in Indonesia. The paper uses monthly data from November 2014 to December 2022. The research sample comprises government bonds with 5, 10, and 15-year tenor bonds. The GARCH (1,1) and GARCH-M (1,1) models are applied to estimate and analyze the determinants of government bond yields. Research findings reveal that Indonesian interest rates significantly affect the yield of 10- and 15-year tenor bonds. Inflation has no impact on bond yields across all tenors. The increase in foreign exchange reserves reduces bond yields in all tenors. The Indonesian stock exchange index is detrimental to long-term bond yields. The exchange rate has a positive impact on bond yields in all tenors. World oil prices significantly impact yields on 5- and 10-year tenor bonds. The Fed’s interest rate positively affects the yield on the 15-year tenor bond. The implication of these findings for the Indonesian government is the implementation of several aspects of economic and financial policies that can improve state debt management and financial market stability.

This study presents an efficient method using the local radial basis function finite difference scheme (RBF-FD). The innovative coefficients are derived from the integrals of the multiquadric (MQ) function. Theoretical convergence rates for the coefficients used in function derivative approximation are provided. The proposed scheme utilizes RBF-FD estimations on three-point non-uniform stencils to construct the final approximation on a tensor grid for the 3D Heston–Hull–White (HHW) PDE, which is relevant in economics and mathematical finance. Numerical evidence and comparative analyses validate the results and the proposed scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe rapid changes in interest rates experienced during and following the COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges for management committed to enhancing the ESG strategies of firms. This study explores how interest rates moderate the relationship between ESG factors and firm performance within the US restaurant sector. Using 240 observations from US publicly-traded restaurant firms, regression analyses are conducted using Tobin’s q as the dependent variable, incorporating interaction terms between each of the environmental (E), social (S), and governance (G) factors with interest rates as moderating variables. The findings indicate that interest rates significantly amplify the impacts of the environmental (E) and social (S) factors on company performance but do not significantly moderate the effect of the governance (G) factor on performance. This research enriches the hospitality and tourism literature by providing novel insights into the interplay between ESG factors and restaurant firms’ performance, particularly under varying interest rate conditions. Additionally, this study offers practical guidance to management in the restaurant industry, suggesting that restaurant firms should intensify their environmental and social initiatives in response to rising interest rates to enhance their financial performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we have empirically investigated the role of interest rate on the volatility of the exchange rate using monthly data starting from January 2011 to January 2020. The conditional standard deviation of the GARCH (1,1) based on the ARIMA (1,1,0) model is used as a proxy for exchange rate volatility. To test the causal effect of the interest rate on the exchange rate volatility, we employed the Granger causality test, Shannon's transfer entropy causality test, and the bootstrap impulse response function. Each test is performed with two separate lag lengths. The results of the study suggest that the interest rate has a positive causal effect on the exchange rate volatility unanimously supported by the Granger causality test and Shannon Transfer Entropy causality test. The IRF revels that a shock in the interest rate positively influences the exchange rate volatility between a lag of two to four months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractCalibration of interest rate models benefits from grouping data to homogenous classes. Such an approach is typical in many financial time series. Preliminaries have been developed for Cox–Ingersoll–Ross models but this issue remains an open problem for many more realistic interest rate models. Here we develop such a strategy for general class interest rate and classes are based on p-value thresholds for testing for normality and gamma distributions. We use as the benchmark financial series of Chilean stock market index IPSA (Indice de precios selectivo de acciones) and its log-returns. We also study the relationship between interest rate and the market returns represented by the IPSA indicator, with positive correlation in some lags which reveals some interesting facts in the contrary to the conventional theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Netherlands is on the brink of reforming its system of occupational pensions as part of a more general reform of its three‐pillar pension system. This reform features important changes to first pillar pension benefits. The focus of this article is however on the coming reform of occupational pensions, the second pillar of the system, which concerns both pension contributions and benefits. This reform is related to a series of reforms that have gradually transformed the pension contract that was dominant 20 years ago, a final salary defined benefit contract, into a collective defined contribution contract. We argue that these reforms are a response to changes in the external environment, such as population ageing and a secular decline of interest rates. The coming reform responds to the call for a pension scheme that is more individualistic, more closely connected to the labour market, and which does not share interest rate risks between generations. The New Pension Contract remains in part collective, since the assets of participants are invested collectively, and a mandatory solidarity fund can be used for intergenerational risk sharing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restrictive monetary policy can not only fail to achieve the conventional macroeconomic goal of controlling inflation but also be seen as responsible for the increasing income inequality that has occurred in recent decades. This result is not clear, however, if one remains bounded to the traditional monetary policy transmission mechanisms and conventional models. In this article, we create an agent-based, stock-flow consistent, heterodox disequilibrium model to analyse and evaluate the effects of different basic interest rate levels, especially its distributive effects. Using computer simulations, we show that the basic interest rate plays a key role when firms compete in oligopolistic markets and face financial constraints and costs. In such circumstances, increases in the interest rate can be responsible for price increases, creating the price puzzle problem. In addition, it forces redistribution of income in favour of the financial system and pressures the profit rate of industrial firms, which will raise prices and lower the wage share. The final distributive effect of an interest rate policy will ultimately depend on the power of these agents: the bargaining power of the workers to claim higher wages and the market power of the firms to raise prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic downturns represent an inevitable challenge that nations and businesses must confront, presenting considerable risks. As a result, it becomes imperative for them to formulate strategies to secure their survival. The world has recently experienced an economic downturn due to a pandemic. COVID-19 has caused a significant economic crisis, leading to job losses and disruptions across various sectors worldwide, including the Philippines. The study utilizes economic indicators to determine patterns, meanings, and subsequent opportunities. Specifically, the study sought to identify relevant economic indicators, find patterns and meaning within each indicator and among indicators, and determine implications from findings. Content analysis was used in the study. It is a qualitative research method to identify and interpret themes, meanings, and patterns. The materials used include eleven Philippine economic indicators, namely, the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index, Balance of Trade, Core Inflation Rate, Consumer Spending, Tourist Arrivals, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Credit, Gold Reserves, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Money Supply M2, and Interest Rate. In conclusion, the study determined that the collective surge in economic activities is positively related to the rise of inflation; increased interest rates potentially mitigated the rise in inflation, and other factors negated the trade deficits and gold reserve fluctuations. The Philippine economy is on the path to recovery, and the unique interrelations of economic indicators imply a more stable environment in the Philippine economy. This signals a green light for investors and an opportunity for policymakers to fine-tune existing initiatives to sustain economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to reveal the effect of agricultural loan interest rates on crop production in Türkiye using time series analysis. Data spanning 46 years (1976-2021) were gathered from various sources, including interest rates and crop production amount. A model was constructed with interest rates as the independent variable and crop production amount as the dependent variable. Analytical methods such as ARDL, VAR, and Granger tests were applied to the model. According to the results obtained from the estimation of the model, there was a negative and significant long-term cointegration relationship between the interest rate and crop production amount variables. Specifically, a 1% increase in interest rates was found to be associated with a 0.26% decrease in crop production. As anticipated, the short-term relationship between these variables was found to be negative and statistically significant. Short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium caused by shocks were shown to dissipate by 10% after one period. Additionally, the results from variance decomposition were found to align with those of the Granger test, confirming that causality is unidirectionally established from interest rates to crop production amount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research relevance is predefined by the need to explain the nature of inflation and assess the effectiveness of anti-inflationary policy in Poland. The research aims to study the factors that cause price growth and the tools to reduce its pace during the global economic crisis. The following research methods were used: analysis of statistical data on inflation dynamics; comparison – for comparing price growth indices; expert estimates – for forecasting inflation; graphical – for displaying results; and generalisation – for summarising information on the use of inflation reduction tools. The main results obtained in this study are: determination of the dynamics of producer price indices, consumer prices and the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator in Poland; comparison of Poland’s inflation rate with other European countries and justification of the reasons for its rapid growth; analysis of the use of inflation targeting in Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary; and assessment of the effectiveness of the central bank’s increase in the key interest rate and required reserve ratios, as well as the impact of these instruments on the inflation rate in Poland; proving the non-monetary nature of inflation and identifying its main drivers in the period 2020-2023 (coronavirus pandemic, rising global energy and food prices, war in Ukraine); identifying the effects of lowering value-added tax (VAT) rates on certain goods on inflation and tax revenues to the Polish budget; comparing the forecast inflation rate and GDP growth by the end of 2023 and 2024-2025 based on expert estimates; substantiating the ways to slow down inflation, considering a wide range of external factors affecting the Polish economy. The results and conclusions are of practical importance for the Government of the country and managers of the banking sector in developing measures to regulate the rate of price growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The budget deficit is a quasi-generalized constant of the contemporary world. Like any fundamental concept, it has been the subject of study in various schools of economic thought and thus its content has been reconsidered over time. In our analysis we aim to provide a diagnosis of the budget balance over the period and of the factors having an impact on its structure and effects, with a view to capturing the process in both static and dynamic terms. Finally, we hope to formulate some conclusions and projections on the effects of the budget deficit on the national economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of studies have found little evidence of the effect of the interest rate in dynamic IS curves. We show that this is due to de-trending. The interest rate has a weak effect on the output gap even when controlling for wealth effects. However, when the IS curve is formulated in an error-correction form, we find a significant interest rate effect. Furthermore, we find that the nominal interest rate explains output dynamics better. Lastly, there are significant effects of long-term interest rates in emerging markets, which may justify the use of yield curve control policies in these economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the state of household income and consumption in Ukraine in peacetime and wartime. The role of financial resources of the population in the financial system of the state is substantiated. It is proved that income plays a crucial role in the formation of the financial potential of the population. The impact of the war on the financial resources of the population and the volume of its savings is investigated. Directions for optimizing the formation of household income are proposed. The influence of the NBU monetary policy on the financial activity of households is analyzed. It is found that the relationship between the interest rate and the level of income, expenses, deposits and cash investments is weak. This is confirmed by the correlation and dispersion coefficients. In particular, the value of the correlation coefficient between the growth rate of the NBU discount rate and the average wage in 2021-2023 did not exceed 0.09. Such a weak impact of the NBU's interest rate can be explained by price stickiness, wage stickiness and the basic principles of the HANK model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economic Administrative & Legal Sciences is the property of Arab Journal of Sciences & Research Publishing (AJSRP) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Basic management approaches are proposed for the risks that business entities may encounter when investing in Russian industry in the digital era. Possible means of reducing exposure to risks and indeterminacies associated with the formation of a digital space and threats to digital security are outlined. Assessment of the risks affecting project efficiency is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economic Series of the Bulletin of the L.N. Gumilyov ENU is the property of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper incorporates low interest rates into a framework of post Keynesian theory of the firm under financialization and uses Compustat data to provide an empirical analysis of firm behavior in the eurozone for the period 2000–2018. It reasons that expansive monetary policy targeting low interest rates will only be effective in promoting investment in a scenario where shareholder value orientation (SVO) tightens the finance constraint on growth-maximizing managers. In contrast, when shareholder value maximization becomes the goal of the firm, expansive monetary policy may not only be ineffective in promoting growth but might actually be dangerous because it fosters financial fragility and promotes SVO. Data suggest that financialization in the eurozone represents a shift in the objectives of the firm toward maximizing free cash flows. However, there is no evidence that expansive monetary policy fostered leverage and an equity reduction in the eurozone. Still, the analysis shows that low interest rates were largely ineffective in fostering investment during the period 2008–2018. Therefore, monetary policy seems insufficient to promote investment and growth. Both expansionary fiscal policy and legal reforms that control shareholder power are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stability of money demand is central to South Africa’s monetary policy. Furthermore, it has implications on the work of the SARB which is the monetary authority of South Africa. Since year 2000, the SARB has been hawkish in its behaviour, which raises questions about stability of money demand. This is because for an inflation targeting economy that provides information to the public to stabilize the market, its money demand should be stable, thereby, making the behaviour of the central bank more stable. However, the behaviour of the SARB does not seem to portray that the demand for money in South Africa is stable. Hence, this study assesses the demand for money in order to comprehend its behaviour. The study uses CUSUM test to test for the stability of money demand. And it is found that before year 2015, money demand was stable. Hence, the money demand in South Africa is becoming unstable overtime. The sample data used in the study is from 2003 to 2023. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As individuals age, they typically acquire more financial obligations, such as funding their children's education or planning for retirement, which can impact their decision to utilize consumer credit. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing the decision to opt for consumer credit at PT BPR Baturaja (Perseroda), with age serving as a moderating variable. The research methodology employed is associative descriptive research. The sampling technique utilized is probability random sampling, determined by the Slovin formula, resulting in a total sample size of 322. Data analysis was conducted using the Partial Least Square (PLS) method. The research findings lead to several conclusions: Firstly, service quality exerts a positive and significant influence on the decision to choose consumer credit at PT BPR Baturaja (Perseroda). Secondly, promotion demonstrates a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the decision to choose consumer credit at PT BPR Baturaja (Perseroda). Lastly, the interest rate has a positive and significant impact on the decision to select consumer credit at PT BPR Baturaja (Perseroda). The age variable acts as a Quasi Moderator (Quasi Moderation) on the influence of service quality on the decision to choose consumer credit at PT BPR Baturaja (Perseroda). The age variable acts as a Moderation Predictor on the influence of promotions on the decision to choose consumer credit at PT BPR Baturaja (Perseroda). The age variable acts as a Pure Moderator on the influence of interest rates on the decision to choose PT BPR Baturaja (Perseroda) consumer credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Humanities Journal of University of Zakho (HJUOZ) is the property of Humanities Journal of University of Zakho and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)