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This article uses just transition to understand the education for sustainable development (ESD) transition in China. The latter has shifted from an internationally recognized response to support sustainable development to an “ecological civilization,” that is, a policy agenda combining domestic environmental and political interests. Using a climate justice framework, this article interprets the ESD transition on three levels: stakeholder engagement, education scope, and environmental governance. The findings reveal that (a) the concept of ecological civilization is heavily political, (b) its scope is limited to environmental sustainability, and (c) stakeholders from the education sector who participated in the new agenda as policy recipients are underrepresented in decision‐making processes. Most importantly, despite the heavy political endorsement of the agenda, many previous challenges associated with ESD, such as lack of policy support, inadequate professional training, and exam pressures, continue at the institutional level. This article recommends establishing an overarching ESD or ecological civilization framework in the education sector to sustain the growing attention given to ecological civilization in the Chinese education sector and calls for further research on the roles of education in just transition in the global context.

Language has gained increasing importance in immigration policies in Western European states, with a new model of citizenship, the ius linguarum (Fejes, 2019; Fortier, 2022), at its core. Accordingly, command of the (national) languages of host states operates both as a resource and as an ideological framework, legitimating the reproduction of inequalities among various migrant and non‐migrant groups. In this article, we analyse the implications of such processes in the context of state‐subsidised language teaching for refugees and migrants in Austria. Specifically, the article aims to explore labour migration, namely that of Central and Eastern European (CEE, including EU and non‐EU citizen) professionals—mainly language teachers who enter the field of adult language teaching in Austria seeking a living and career prospects that they cannot find in the significantly underpaid educational sectors of CEE states. This article shows that the arrival of CEE professionals into these difficult and precarious jobs is enabled first by historical processes linking the CEE region to former political and economic power centres. Second, it is facilitated by legal, administrative, and symbolic processes that construct CEE citizens as second‐order teachers in the field of migrant education in Austria. Our article, based on ethnographic fieldwork and qualitative interviews, highlights nuanced ways in which historically, economically, and politically embedded language geographies contribute to the reproduction of hierarchies of membership, inclusion, and exclusion in present‐day immigration societies.

Quality control in fertilizer markets is critical to food security by facilitating fertilizer application and increasing agricultural productivity. With the active proliferation of new fertilizer producers, Vietnam has also faced this problem, but public and market initiatives have recently been taken to address the issue This paper evaluates the quality of 141 randomly sampled fertilizers in the Mekong Delta, the country’s central rice producing area. We intentionally sampled unbranded products to focus on the most vulnerable market segment. On average, our sample contains the labeled nutrient content. However, the quality variability is high, and half of the sample has at least one nutrient content below the legal requirement. We also find that nitrogen is over-concentrated and phosphate is diluted. These findings suggest that the quality of fertilizers in Vietnam, even unbranded ones, is reliable on average, but efforts are needed to stabilize quality variability. In addition, over-concentration of nitrogen may warrant policy attention as farmers may inadvertently over-apply nitrogen and harm the environment.

First Draft : February 15, 2016. Current Draft : April 26, 2023., This study examines the exchange rate implications of trend inflation within a two-country New Keynesian (NK) model. An NK Phillips curve generalized by trend inflation makes the inflation differential smoother, more persistent, and less sensitive to the real exchange rate. A Bayesian analysis with post-Bretton Woods data for Canada and the U.S. shows that the model’s equilibrium, which relies on Taylor rules with a persistent trend inflation shock and strong policy inertia, mimics empirical regularities in exchange rates that are difficult to reconcile within a standard NK model. Trend inflation helps explain the empirical puzzles of the exchange rate dynamics., Grant-in-aid for scientific research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (numbers 17H02542 and 17H00985)

A new high-frequency realized stochastic volatility model is proposed. Apart from the standard daily-frequency stochastic volatility model, the high-frequency stochastic volatility model is fit to intraday returns by extensively incorporating intraday volatility patterns. The daily realized volatility calculated using intraday returns is incorporated into the high-frequency stochastic volatility model by considering the bias in the daily realized volatility caused by microstructure noise. The volatility of intraday returns is assumed to consist of the autoregressive process, the seasonal component of the intraday volatility pattern, and the announcement component responding to macroeconomic announcements. A Bayesian method via Markov chain Monte Carlo is developed for the analysis of the proposed model. The empirical analysis using the 5-minute returns of E-mini S&P 500 futures provides evidence that our high-frequency realized stochastic volatility model improves in-sample model fit and volatility forecasting over the existing models., Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research No. 19H00588 (Watanabe only) and 20H00073

The minimal econometric interpretation (MEI) of DSGE models provides a formal model evaluation and comparison of misspecified nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models based on atheoretical reference models. The MEI approach recognizes DSGE models as incomplete econometric tools that provide only prior distributions of targeted population moments but have no implications for actual data and sample moments. This study, based on the MEI approach, develops a Bayesian posterior inference method. Prior distributions of targeted population moments simulated by the DSGE model restrict the hyperparameters of Dirichlet distributions. These are natural conjugate priors for multinomial distributions followed by corresponding posterior distributions estimated by the reference model. The Polya marginal likelihood of the resulting restricted Dirichlet-multinomial model has a tractive approximated log-linear representation of the Jensen-Shannon divergence, which the proposed distribution-matching posterior inference uses as the limited information likelihood function. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the MEI posterior sampler correctly infers calibrated structural parameters of an equilibrium asset pricing model and detects the true model with posterior odds ratios., Grant-in-aid for scientific research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Nos. 24330060, 17H02542, 17H00985, and 20H00073)

The governance of fertilizer quality is critical to food security, as the prevalence of low-quality fertilizers hinders fertilizer use and stagnates agricultural production. This paper documents and assesses the government and market initiatives to address this issue in Vietnam. We conduct in-depth field interviews with stakeholders and identify three initiatives related to fertilizer quality control in the markets: (1) government regulation and control through licensing, mandatory quality labeling, and random inspections; (2) producer efforts to maintain quality and brand through warranty and dealer certification; and (3) hierarchical social learning, where fertilizer retailers update product assortments based on reputations among farmers, who regularly evaluate fertilizer quality. We highlight the importance of public regulation by discussing how government and market initiatives interact and complement each other.

In this study, we estimate the tax-price elasticity of charitable giving and address the bias caused by the existence of unreported donations and self-selection to the declaration of giving. To eliminate this bias, we propose a simple estimation method based on intentionto- treat analysis. Using our proposed method and the exogenous variation in tax incentives in the 2014 South Korean tax reform, we estimate the price elasticity of donations to be −1.6 for the intensive margin and −2.6 for the extensive margin, which are more elastic than the standard results that do not account for unreported donations and self-selection. The result implies that the 2014 tax reform reduced the total amount of giving and that tax incentives should be expanded.

We consider the problem of allocating an object to n ≥ 2 agents with payments. We allow agents to have preferences that exhibit (allocative) externalities and are not necessarily quasi-linear. Thus, agents care not only their own consumption of the object but also other agents’ consumption or the owner keeping the object. A preference of an agent is identity-independent if he does not care who else (except for the owner) wins the object at the payment of zero. We show that if (i) all the agents have identity-independent preferences, and (ii) at least n − 1 agents have preferences that exhibit positive externalities, then the generalized pivotal rule is the only rule satisfying efficiency, weak individual rationality, no subsidy for losers, and strategy-proofness. We also establish that if we relax one of the assumptions (i) and (ii), then no rule satisfies the four properties. Further, we find the two environments where some agents may have identity-dependent preferences, others have quasi-linear preferences exhibiting positive externaliteis, and there is a rule satisfying the four properties. Overall, our results suggest the importance of identity-independence and positive externalities in a non-quasi-linear environment with externalities for the existence of a rule satisfying the four properties., He gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Japan society for the Promotion of Sciences (19J20448; 23K18777).

The 2022 and the 2010-2011 Bank of Japan interventions provide an opportunity for investigating whether unusually large-scale and infrequent interventions are capable of generating trend effects. To this end, we estimate the counterfactual exchange rate and analyze structural changes in the level and the trend of the gap sequence between actual and counterfactual exchange rates. Our results show that the trend of the gap sequence reversed in the desired direction around the intervention dates, indicating that the intervention policy instrument is potentially powerful enough to generate long-term trend effects. This is an important insight not previously found in the intervention literature.

Contrary to classical macroeconomic theory, the volatility of consumption relative to income has risen in emerging markets despite the international financial integration. This study presents a theoretical mechanism of this phenomenon by developing a small open economy model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint, named the Interest Coverage Ratio-based borrowing constraint. Calibration exercises show that financial integration improves consumption smoothing and mitigates income shocks. Meanwhile, the foreign debt limit is more sensitive to changes in the world real interest rate. An increase in the world real interest rate tightens the borrowing constraint and decreases consumption significantly for the repayment. Financial integration would make consumption more vulnerable to the world real interest rate changes, resulting the higher volatility in emerging markets.

Measuring uncertainty and its economic impact are of major concern during the unprecedented crisis triggered by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This paper constructs a newspaper-based measure that captures the uncertainty induced by COVID-19 and examines its economic impacts using a structural VAR model applied to Japanese data. We develop two types of uncertainty indices and identify two types of structural shocks in the VAR model: one measuring an epidemiological uncertainty, the other a policy-related uncertainty. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, the constructed series of uncertainty shows a spike after COVID-19 related events, indicating that our indices work well as a measure of COVID-19 induced uncertainty. Second, stock market variables show statistically significant responses to a policy-related uncertainty shock rather than an epidemiological uncertainty shock. Third, in contrast, real variables such as mobility and consumption tend to respond significantly to an epidemiological uncertainty shock. These findings highlight the importance of considering different types of uncertainty in order to properly assess the impact of COVID-19 induced uncertainty on economic activity., Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists 19K13652, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) 20H00073

December 13, 2021, Contrary to the convenient assumption, this paper shows that internal trade cost is heterogeneous across countries. This heterogeneous internal trade cost contaminates the importer fixed effect in a ratio type gravity estimation making exporter fixed effect a better measure of country’s competitiveness. Further quantification analysis shows that R&D data can approximate country level technology parameter quite well after netting out the effect from internal trade cost and the model with internal trade cost can match real income data very well. The model with internal trade cost is not only consistent with price data but also outperforms other alternatives in fitting R&D data. This paper offers a novel answer to the question why small countries export less than large ones. That is small countries trade more with themselves because of lower internal trade costs they have.

This version: March 2022, Asset prices reflect expectations of future economic conditions. In this study, we use the property of asset prices, especially stock prices, to forecast the GDP growth rate in Japan. For optimal use of the rich time-series and cross-sectional information of stock prices, we combine MIDAS (mixed-data sampling) regression and factor analysis to examine which dimensions of information contribute to the accuracy of the GDP growth rate forecast. Our results show that the use of factors significantly improves forecast accuracy and that extracting factors from a broader set of stock prices further improves accuracy. This highlights the important role of cross-sectional stock market information in forecasting macroeconomic activity., The Japan Center for Economic Research and Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (19K13652)

March 21, 2022, This paper offers a variant of Ricardian model able to structurally interpret the estimate of country-specific variable—transportation infrastructure in a commonly used fixed effect gravity estimation. Guided by this new theoretical framework, this paper shows that transportation infrastructure enhances international trade more than internal trade and this result is robust to various estimation methods and different versions of transportation infrastructure measures. Moreover, it shows that the transportation infrastructure has a non-negative effect on internal trade. Further quantitative analysis suggests 10% increase in transportation infrastructure induce 3.9% increase in real income and more than 95% of the gains concentrate on the infrastructure improving country. All the above results suggest that better infrastructure leads to sizable gains providing additional empirical support to policies aiming to improve transportation infrastructure. This paper also suggests, contrary to what ACR formula claims, domestic goods expenditure share change is no longer sufficient to predict how real income changes.

This paper examines the possible spillover effects of the global and regional crossborder claims of Japanese banks on domestic financial stability. We contribute to the existing literature by constructing a global banking network and applying the Spinglass methodology to detect communities formed within the network. Furthermore, we employ a novel spatial econometric approach, namely, a timevarying spatial autoregressive (SAR) model that captures the evolution of spillover effects over time. Our empirical results point to the dominant role of Japanese banks in the global banking network and the evolution of the East Asian regional banking network. Furthermore, our findings show considerable variation in the degree of influence of both the global and regional banking networks over time., The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of the Japanese Government through Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No.20H00073)

A stock market volatility index is a widely-used proxy of uncertainty in the macroeconomy, and its increase is shown to dampen real economic activity. In contrast, the macroeconomic uncertainty index proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) measures the predictability of a wide range of macroeconomic indicators and thus is a comprehensive indicator of macroeconomy-wide uncertainty. This paper empirically investigates a nonlinear link between financial volatility and real economic activity depending on the level of the macroeconomic uncertainty index. Based on the United States and Japan data, empirical analysis suggests that an increase in the financial volatility lowers industrial production and business fixed investment more persistently when the macroeconomic uncertainty is higher., The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of the Japanese Government through Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No.20H00073)

This paper evaluates the efficiency of the Japanese fiscal authority’s revenue projections from 1960 to 2020 using real-time data. Revenue projections are not efficient, primarily due to the conditioning projections of output growth. By adjusting the forecasts based on the results of real-time forecast evaluations, this paper finds that the out-of-sample accuracy of the one-year-ahead projections could be significantly improved by a magnitude of up to 10 percent in root mean squared errors. The analysis of the disaggregated series suggests that corporate tax projections are the least efficient. The fiscal authority’s loss function is estimated to be asymmetric, making the underprediction of revenues more common., the Taiwanese Ministry of Science and Technology’s grant (110-2410-H-004-183)

October 12, 2022, Shipping companies often charges nonlinear and discriminatory pricing for transportation. This paper shows that this nonlinear and discriminatory pricing in the shipping industry could hamper the welfare gains from trade due to withinindustry allocation across heterogeneous firms. I extend a standard heterogeneous firm trade model with variable markups by incorporating monopolistically competitive shipping companies that charge nonlinear and discriminatory pricing against manufacturers. In a standard setting, shipping companies optimally charge a higher transport price to the more productive firms, weakening within-industry reallocation toward productive firms. Elimination of this discriminatory practice could potentially increase the gains from trade.

November 28, 2022, Central bank information effect have been analyzed in the recent literature on monetary policy. In this study, we apply the identification method by Jarocinski and Karadi (2020) to the Japanese data to empirically examine the macroeconomic effects of central bank information shock and pure monetary policy shock. These shocks are identified by combining of high-frequency identification and sign restriction. The empirical results support the presence of central bank information effects in Japan. Particularly, the central bank information shock accompanying monetary tightening decreases economic uncertainty and increases stock prices and output, suggesting that central bank’s optimistic outlook is conveyed through contractionary monetary actions. The results of the forecast error variance decomposition indicate that the central bank’s information effect may be spread through changes in uncertainty. Finally, the total effect of monetary policy and information shocks on the variables are much larger than that of the shocks identified by the conventional Cholesky decomposition. These findings are important for evaluating the true effects of monetary actions on the economy.

November 11, 2022, This paper examines the consequences of forced displacement for Cambodian refugees during the Cambodian conflict (1978-1991). Using complete count 1998 Census microdata, we focus on the two major groups of returnees, namely those from the neighboring countries of Thailand and Vietnam, which were under the control of different great powers, respectively Western and Eastern, during the Cold War. The former stayed in refugee camps with humanitarian assistance prior to repatriation and the latter did not. Consistent with the availability of humanitarian assistance, our analyses reveal that the returnees from Thailand attained higher levels of education - while those from Vietnam, by contrast, attained lower levels of education - than stayers. On the other hand, the two groups both experienced worse labor market outcomes, with employment shifts from the primary sector to the immature tertiary sector. Such adverse displacement impacts are relatively stronger for later returnees. We provide suggestive evidence that adverse displacement impacts can be attributed to congested labor markets resulting from limited access to available agricultural land, exacerbated by the high contamination of landmines and UXOs during the conflict. Our results demonstrate that forced displacement due to conflict in a developing country can be a potential source of future misallocation.

This chapter attempts to provide a preliminary sketch of the portions of Eduard Glaser’s personal Nachlass that are preserved in archives in the Czech Republic.

Using data from 466 smallholder coffee farmers in Ethiopia, this paper examines the effect of a public agricultural market information system (AMIS) on the farmers’ agricultural outcomes. Our findings confirm that providing market price information via the AMIS is positively related to coffee sales, the ratio of sales to production, and coffee income. In addition, we consider market heterogeneity by comparing two zones with different market characteristics. We find that the AMIS is positively associated with increasing coffee sales, the ratio of sales to production, and coffee income in only one zone with relatively lower market participation. On the contrary, the sales and income of AMIS users in the other zone with higher market participation did not increase although their selling price increased. While public information provision via ICT is more beneficial to underdeveloped markets, we suggest correcting other market imperfections is important to maximize the utility of AMISs., the JSPS Kakenhi Scientific Research on Innovative Areas Grant Number JP25101003, the Japan Securities Scholarship Foundation

January 4, 2021, This paper compares the volatility predictive abilities of some time-varying volatility models such as thestochastic volatility (SV) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models using daily returns, the heterogeneous au-toregressive (HAR) model using daily realized volatility (RV) and the realized SV (RSV) and realized EGARCH(REGARCH) models using the both. The data are the daily return and RV of Dow Jones Industrial Aver-age (DJIA) in US and Nikkei 225 (N225) in Japan. All models are extended to accommodate the well-knownphenomenon in stock markets of a negative correlation between today's return and tomorrow's volatility. Weestimate the HAR model by the ordinary least squares (OLS) and the EGARCH and REGARCH models bythe quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method. Since it is not straightforward to evaluate the likelihood of theSV and RSV models, we apply a Bayesian estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to them. Byconducting predictive ability tests and analyses based on model confidence sets, we confirm that the models us-ing RV outperform the models without RV, that is, the RV provides useful information on forecasting volatility.Moreover, we find that the realized SV model performs best and the HAR model can compete with it. Thecumulative loss analysis suggests that the differences of the predictive abilities among the models are partlycaused by the rise of volatility.

This version: April 2021, First version: October 2018, Consumption is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study theoretically analyzes how trade liberalization and consumption tax affect firm locations across countries and GHG emissions originating from consumption. Introducing consumption-originated emissions in a standard footloose capital model, we find several novel results that extend previous analyses of production-originated GHG emissions. First, trade liberalization has a non-monotonic effect on global emissions; that is, as trade costs decline, global emissions initially decrease and then increase. Second, consumption taxes cause carbon leakage; that is, the tax on one country reduces emissions in that country, while increasing it in the rest of the world. Third, optimal consumption taxes that maximize global welfare must be neutral about firm location decisions. In particular, even if firms are asymmetrically distributed across countries in the absence of a consumption tax, the optimal tax level must be identical across countries.

This version: May 20, 2021, In this paper, we develop a new test to detect whether break points are common in heterogeneous panel data models where the time series dimension T could be large relative to cross-section dimension N. The error process is assumed to be cross-sectionally independent. The test is based on the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of ordinary least squares (OLS) residuals. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the detecting statistic under the null hypothesis, while proving the consistency of the test under the alternative. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example show good performance of the test., Kurozumi’s research was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 19K01585.

People in developing economies face substantial income risks and use diverse strategies to mitigate the negative welfare impact. Rural households often send migrants to diversify income sources and depend on remittances to cope with income risks. To examine the risk-coping mechanism of urban migrants and their rural families against the aggregate shock due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyze the seven-round Bangladeshi household panel covering the period before and after the first implementation of COVID-19 lockdown policies. Our event study finds that urban migrants experienced more substantial income loss than their rural families and reduced but not ceased remittances to cope with the aggregate shock jointly. Notably, mobile money services allowed them to continue sending remittances even under the lockdown policies., JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP18J20988, JP18H00838), The Telecommunications Advancement Foundation, The Mitsubishi Foundation, The Kikawada Foundation, The Zengin Foundation for Studies on Economics and Finance, The Yamada Foundation, The Nihon Housei Gakkai, Japan Center for Economic Research

Draft Version: August 30, 2021, This paper estimates the causal effects of restricting cigarette availability on purchasing patterns. We design a research strategy that enables the estimation by leveraging the impact of an unforeseen discontinuation of products because of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We analyze nationally representative home scanner data in Japan and find that making certain products unavailable leads smokers to switch to products with less tar and nicotine and purchase 32 percent fewer cigarettes per month. As a result, the total amount of tar and nicotine in purchased cigarettes has decreased by 43 and 30 percentage points, respectively. Such effects persist over the years., This work is supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP19K13717 and Health and Labour Sciences Research Grant Number 20FA1022.

September 18, 2021, This paper shows that the shipping industry could hamper the endogenous firm selection into production which is conducive to the overall productivity enhancement and welfare gains, through its discriminatory price. Naturally, if the shipping industry charges a higher transport price to the more productive manufacturing firms, sabotaging their competitive edges, those productive firms would not be capable of expanding as well as they otherwise would do under uniform transport fees, leaving enough space for the less productive firms to survive. Therefore, the effect from another source of gains from trade, firm selection is dampened. Elimination of this discriminatory practice could potentially increase the gains from trade.

September 18, 2021, Recent empirical research documented that there exists a nonlinear pricing phenomenon in the shipping industry. This paper strives to show how this empirical regularity would alter conventional results in trade literature. This paper also shows that when nonlinear pricing in the shipping industry is considered, while the average productivity is higher conducive to the higher welfare level, the gains from trade are generally lower than the situation without. In addition, the model built in this paper offers micro foundations for the additive trade cost and features an endogenous response of shipping charges to the iceberg trade cost, an empirical finding emphasized in Hummels et al. (2009). In a much broader sense, this paper argues that the heterogeneous firm model offers a lens through which traditional results on some interesting objects, for example, gains from trade, could be altered.

Current Draft: November 12, 2021, The main tenet of the New Keynesian (NK) paradigm is that price dispersion caused by nominal price stickiness is the primary source of allocative inefficiency. This study empirically evaluates the welfare implications of NK models by observing how internal and external price dispersion responds to two types of large aggregate shocks: high inflation and sharp currency depreciation. For this purpose, we consider the history of US military deployment on a small southern island in Japan called Okinawa following the Pacific War. We investigate unique data variations in micro-level retail prices surveyed in Okinawa and mainland Japan before and after the Okinawan reversion to Japanese sovereignty in May of 1972. By considering the Okinawan experience of three currency regimes during the high inflation period of the early 1970s as valid quasi-natural experiments, we identify statistically significant deteriorations of currency misalignment associated with the sudden exogenous large USD depreciation versus the JPY following the Nixon Shock. Furthermore, we observe that these massive aggregate shocks left the average absolute size of price changes mostly unchanged, but significantly increased the average frequency of price changes in Okinawa. Because a calibrated small open-economy menu cost model fits these empirical findings better than the Calvo model, the welfare costs of exchange rate fluctuations may be more elusive than suggested by the openeconomy NK literature., a grant-in-aid for scientific research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Nos. 24330060 and 17H02542), Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study

This version: December 2021, This study investigates the impact of economic incentives on travel-related physical activity, leveraging the London Congestion Charge’s disincentivising of sedentary travel modes via increasing the cost of private car use within Central London. The scheme imposes charges on most types of cars entering, exiting and operating within the Central London area, while individuals living inside the charging zone are eligible for a 90% reduction in congestion charges. Geographical location information provides the full-digit postcode data necessary to precisely identify the eligibility for the discount of participants in the London Travel Demand Survey for the period 2005–2011. Using a boundary regression-discontinuity design reveals a statistically significant but small impact on active commuting (i.e. cycling and walking) around the border of the charging zone. The effect is larger for lower-income households and car owners. The findings are robust against multiple specifications and validation tests., the UKCRC Centre for Diet and Physical Activity Research (CEDAR)