1. Extratropical Low‐Frequency Variability With ENSO Forcing: A Reduced‐Order Coupled Model Study
- Author
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Stéphane Vannitsem, Jonathan Demaeyer, Michael Ghil, Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique [Bruxelles] - Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique [Bruxelles] (IRM), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)
- Subjects
Physical geography ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,ENSO forcing ,Ensemble averaging ,Chaotic ,ocean‐atmosphere interaction ,FOS: Physical sciences ,GC1-1581 ,Forcing (mathematics) ,Pullback attractor ,Lyapunov exponent ,Oceanography ,01 natural sciences ,Stability (probability) ,symbols.namesake ,0103 physical sciences ,Extratropical cyclone ,Environmental Chemistry ,010306 general physics ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,reduced‐order models ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Physics ,midlatitude dynamics ,Global and Planetary Change ,Oscillation ,Lyapunov exponents ,Nonlinear Sciences - Chaotic Dynamics ,GB3-5030 ,Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,pullback attractors ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) ,symbols ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD) - Abstract
The impact of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric bridge between the tropics and the extratropics. The variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere extratropical module is then investigated through the analysis of its pullback attractors (PBAs). This analysis focuses on two types of ENSO forcing generated by the tropical module, one periodic and the other aperiodic. For a substantial range of the ENSO forcing, two chaotic PBAs are found to coexist for the same set of parameter values. Different types of extratropical low-frequency variability are associated with either PBA over the parameter ranges explored. For periodic ENSO forcing, the coexisting PBAs exhibit only weak nonlinear instability. For chaotic forcing, though, they are quite unstable and certain extratropical perturbations induce transitions between the two PBAs. These distinct stability properties may have profound consequences for extratropical climate predictions: in particular, ensemble averaging may no longer help isolate the low-frequency variability signal., Comment: 35 pages, 17 figures, manuscript submitted to JAMES
- Published
- 2021