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Thin cylindrical shell structure has initial shape imperfections, and the ultimate behavior of thin cylindrical shells is affected by these imperfections. To simulate the ultimate behavior of thin cylindrical shells we should consider a thorough analysis. However, it is not realistic to analyze each individual thin cylindrical shell. In this study, a statistical model of the initial shape imperfection based on a statistical property of the initial shape imperfection is shown. In addition, a statistical method to evaluate the ultimate behavior is shown using Monte Carlo simulation., 長崎大学大学院工学研究科研究報告, 48(91), pp.31-38; 2018