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We propose an analytical expression describing the probability of occurrence of tornadoes as a function of selected meteorological variables. Our study is based on the available lists of recorded tornadoes events in the USA and Europe matched with the meteorological conditions provided by the high resolution ERA5 reanalysis data. The statistical validation of the results has been carried out using Bootstrap techniques and Monte Carlo permutation procedures. The considered variables are the convective available potential energy, the vertical wind shear, the storm-relative helicity, and the lifting condensation level. Our analysis suggests that the most suitable representation for the probability of occurrence of tornadoes is a bivariate exponential-like expression as a function of the convective available potential energy and either the wind shear or the storm relative helicity. This expression allows to compute the probability of tornado occurrence using data extracted from operational weather prediction and available climate projections, thus compensating for the lack of resolution needed to explicitly model tornadoes in these simulations. The proposed methodological approach can be used to obtaining formula of increasing accuracy as larger datasets of tornado events will become progressively available in the future., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Background: Impacted lower third molars often require surgical extraction. The management of post-operative complications such as pain and inflammation is a crucial stage during healing. Objectives: To compare anti-inflammatory and analgesic efficacy of naproxen sodium 550 mg (Synflex forte®, Recordati SpA) versus diclofenac sodium 50 mg (Voltaren®, Novartis Farma SpA) after surgical extraction of impacted lower third molars. Materials and methods: A sample of 25 patients requiring extraction of bilaterally impacted mandibular molars was selected. The sample was divided into two groups: in the first right molars were extracted and naproxen was used to control pain; in the second group left molars were extracted and diclofenac was used as analgesic drug. Patients scored perceived pain on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale during postoperative period in accord to a precise timing. Data collected were statistically analysed and processed by Wilcoxon test. Results: Mean pain scores were similar at any time; at time 1 mean score was 61.76 and 62.84 and at time 10 it was 18.28 and 18.04 for naproxen and diclofenac respectively. According to the ANOVA model the variable "group" is not statistically significant (p value = 0.2410); this means that in both groups the drugs tested have effectively controlled pain in the days following surgery. Conclusions: According to our trial, both naproxen sodium 550 mg (Synflex forte®, Recordati SpA) and diclofenac sodium 50 mg (Voltaren ®, Novartis Farma SpA) showed similar efficacy in controlling pain and acute postoperative events after surgical extraction of impacted lower third molars.

In this study, mesoscale environments associated with 57 significant tornadoes occurring over Italy in the period 2000&ndash, 2018 are analyzed. The role of the vertical Wind Shear in the lower and middle troposphere, in terms of low-level shear (LLS) and deep-level shear (DLS), and of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) as possible precursors of significant tornadoes is statistically investigated. Wind shear and CAPE data are extracted from the ERA-5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Overall, the study indicates that: (a) values of these variables in the two uppermost quartiles of their statistical distribution significantly increases the probability of tornado occurrences, (b) the probability increases for increasing values of LLS and DLS, and (c) is maximum when either wind shear or CAPE are large. These conclusions hold for both the reanalysis datasets and do not depend upon the season and/or the considered area. With the possible exception of weak tornadoes, which are not included in our study, our results show that large wind shear, in the presence of medium-to-high values of CAPE, are reliable precursors of tornadoes.