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Background Timely utilization of antenatal care and delivery services supports the health of mothers and babies. Few studies exist on the utilization and determinants of timely ANC and use of different types of health facilities at the community level in Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the utilization, timeliness of, and socio-demographic determinants of antenatal and delivery care services in two sub-districts in Bangladesh. Methods This cross-sectional study used data collected through a structured questionnaire in the eRegMat cluster-randomized controlled trial, which enrolled pregnant women between October 2018-June 2020. We undertook univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine the associations of socio-demographic variables with timely first ANC, four timely ANC visits, and facility delivery. We considered the associations in the multivariate logistic regression as statistically significant if the p-value was found to be Results Data were available on 3293 pregnant women. Attendance at a timely first antenatal care visit was 59%. Uptake of four timely antenatal care visits was 4.2%. About three-fourths of the women delivered in a health facility. Women from all socio-economic groups gradually shifted from using public health facilities to private hospitals as the pregnancy advanced. Timely first antenatal care visit was associated with: women over 30 years of age (AOR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.05–2.19); nulliparity (AOR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.04–1.62); husbands with >10 years of education (AOR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.09–1.81) and being in the highest wealth quintile (AOR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.18–1.89). Facility deliveries were associated with woman’s age; parity; education; the husband’s education, and wealth index. None of the available socio-demographic factors were associated with four timely antenatal care visits. Conclusions The study observed socio-demographic inequalities associated with increased utilization of timely first antenatal care visit and facility delivery. The pregnant women, irrespective of wealth shifted from public to private facilities for their antenatal care visits and delivery. To increase the health service utilization and promote good health, maternal health care programs should pay particular attention to young, multiparous women, of low socio-economic status, or with poorly educated husbands. Clinical trial registration ISRCTN69491836; https://www.isrctn.com/. Registered on December 06, 2018. Retrospectively registered.

Background Digital health interventions (DHIs) can alleviate several barriers to achieving better maternal and child health. The World Health Organization’s guideline recommendations for DHIs emphasize the need to integrate multiple DHIs for maximizing impact. The complex health system of Bangladesh provides a unique setting for evaluating and understanding the role of an electronic registry (eRegistry) for antenatal care, with multiple integrated DHIs for strengthening the health system as well as improving the quality and utilization of the public health care system. Objective The aim of this study is to assess the effect of an eRegistry with DHIs compared with a simple digital data entry tool without DHIs in the community and frontline health facilities. Methods The eRegMat is a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in the Matlab North and Matlab South subdistricts in the Chandpur district, Bangladesh, where health facilities are currently using the eRegistry for digital tracking of the health status of pregnant women longitudinally. The intervention arm received 3 superimposed data-driven DHIs: health worker clinical decision support, health worker feedback dashboards with action items, and targeted client communication to pregnant women. The primary outcomes are appropriate screening as well as management of hypertension during pregnancy and timely antenatal care attendance. The secondary outcomes include morbidity and mortality in the perinatal period as well as timely first antenatal care visit; successful referrals for anemia, diabetes, or hypertension during pregnancy; and facility delivery. Results The eRegistry and DHIs were co-designed with end users between 2016 and 2018. The eRegistry was implemented in the study area in July 2018. Recruitment for the trial started in October 2018 and ended in June 2020, followed by an 8-month follow-up period to capture outcome data until February 2021. Trial results will be available for publication in June 2021. Conclusions This trial allows the simultaneous assessment of multiple integrated DHIs for strengthening the health system and aims to provide evidence for its implementation. The study design and outcomes are geared toward informing the living review process of the guidelines for implementing DHIs. Trial Registration ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN69491836; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN69491836 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/26918

Background Timely and appropriate evidence-based practices during antenatal care improve maternal and neonatal health. There is a lack of information on how pregnant women and families perceive antenatal care in Bangladesh. The aim of our study was to develop targeted client communication via text messages for increasing antenatal care utilization, as part of an implementation of an electronic registry for maternal and child health. Methods Using a phenomenological approach, we conducted this qualitative study from May to June 2017 in two sub-districts of Chandpur district, Bangladesh. We selected study participants by purposive sampling. A total of 24 in-depth interviews were conducted with pregnant women (n = 10), lactating women (n = 5), husbands (n = 5), and mothers-in-law (n = 4). The Health Belief Model (HBM) was used to guide the data collection. Thematic analysis was carried out manually according to the HBM constructs. We used behavior change techniques to inform the development of targeted client communication based on the thematic results. Results Almost no respondents mentioned antenatal care as a preventive form of care, and only perceived it as necessary if any complications developed during pregnancy. Knowledge of the content of antenatal care (ANC) and pregnancy complications was low. Women reported a variety of reasons for not attending ANC, including the lack of information on the timing of ANC; lack of decision-making power; long-distance to access care; being busy with household chores, and not being satisfied with the treatment by health care providers. Study participants recommended phone calls as their preferred communication strategy when asked to choose between the phone call and text message, but saw text messages as a feasible option. Based on the findings, we developed a library of 43 automatically customizable text messages to increase ANC utilization. Conclusions Pregnant women and family members had limited knowledge about antenatal care and pregnancy complications. Effective health information through text messages could increase awareness of antenatal care among the pregnant women in Bangladesh. This study presents an example of designing targeted client communication to increase antenatal care utilization within formal scientific frameworks, including a taxonomy of behavior change techniques. Trial registration ISRCTN69491836. Registered on December 06, 2018. Retrospectively registered.

Summary Background Strengthening the capacity of midwives to deliver high-quality maternal and newborn health services has been highlighted as a priority by global health organisations. To support low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in their decisions about investments in health, we aimed to estimate the potential impact of midwives on reducing maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths under several intervention coverage scenarios. Methods For this modelling study, we used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of deaths that would be averted by 2035, if coverage of health interventions that can be delivered by professional midwives were scaled up in 88 countries that account for the vast majority of the world's maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths. We used four scenarios to assess the effects of increasing the coverage of midwife-delivered interventions by a modest amount (10% every 5 years), a substantial amount (25% every 5 years), and the amount needed to reach universal coverage of these interventions (ie, to 95%); and the effects of coverage attrition (a 2% decrease every 5 years). We grouped countries in three equal-sized groups according to their Human Development Index. Group A included the 30 countries with the lowest HDI, group B included 29 low-to-medium HDI countries, and group C included 29 medium-to-high HDI countries. Findings We estimated that, relative to current coverage, a substantial increase in coverage of midwife-delivered interventions could avert 41% of maternal deaths, 39% of neonatal deaths, and 26% of stillbirths, equating to 2·2 million deaths averted per year by 2035. Even a modest increase in coverage of midwife-delivered interventions could avert 22% of maternal deaths, 23% of neonatal deaths, and 14% of stillbirths, equating to 1·3 million deaths averted per year by 2035. Relative to current coverage, universal coverage of midwife-delivered interventions would avert 67% of maternal deaths, 64% of neonatal deaths, and 65% of stillbirths, allowing 4·3 million lives to be saved annually by 2035. These deaths averted would be particularly concentrated in the group B countries, which currently account for a large proportion of the world's population and have high mortality rates compared with group C. Interpretation Midwives can help to substantially reduce maternal and neonatal mortality and stillbirths in LMICs. However, to realise this potential, midwives need to have skills and competencies in line with recommendations from the International Confederation of Midwives, to be part of a team of sufficient size and skill, and to work in an enabling environment. Our study highlights the potential of midwives but there are many challenges to the achievement of this potential. If increased coverage of midwife-delivered interventions can be achieved, health systems will be better able to provide effective coverage of essential sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, and adolescent health interventions. Funding New Venture Fund.

Background: Timely and appropriate evidence-based practices during antenatal care improve maternal and neonatal health. There is a lack of information on how pregnant women and families perceive antenatal care in Bangladesh. This study explores their perceptions towards developing targeted client communication via text messages for increasing antenatal care utilization, as part of an implementation of an electronic registry for maternal and child health.Methods: We conducted this qualitative study between May and June 2017 in two sub-districts of Chandpur district, Bangladesh. We selected study participants by purposive sampling. A total of 24 in-depth interviews were conducted with pregnant women (n=10), lactating women (n=5), husbands (n=5), and mothers-in-law (n=4). The health belief model was used to guide data collection and analysis. Thematic analysis was carried out manually. We used behavior change techniques to inform the development of targeted client communications based on the thematic results.Results: Almost no respondents mentioned antenatal care as a preventive form of care, and only perceived it as necessary if any complications developed during pregnancy. Knowledge of the content of antenatal care and pregnancy complications was low. Women reported a variety of reasons for not attending ANC, including the lack of information on the timing of ANC; lack of decision-making power; long-distance to access care; being busy with household chores and not being satisfied with the treatment by health care providers. Study participants recommended phone calls as their preferred communication strategy when asked to choose between the phone call and text message, but saw text messages as a feasible option. We developed a library of 43 automatically customizable text messages to increase ANC utilization. Conclusions: Pregnant women and family members had limited knowledge about antenatal care and pregnancy complications. Effective health information through text messages could increase awareness of antenatal care among study participants. This study presents an example of designing targeted client communication to increase antenatal care utilization within formal scientific frameworks, including a taxonomy of behavior change techniques.

BackgroundThe proportion of women attending four or more antenatal care (ANC) visits is widely used for monitoring, but provides limited information on quality of care. Effective coverage metrics, assessing if ANC interventions are completely delivered, can identify critical gaps in healthcare service delivery. We aimed to measure coverage of at least one screening and effective coverage of ANC interventions in the public health system in the West Bank, Palestine, and to explore associations between infrastructure-related and maternal sociodemographic variables and effective coverage.MethodsWe used data from paper-based clinical records of 1369 pregnant women attending ANC in 17 primary healthcare clinics. Infrastructure-related variables were derived from a 2014 national inventory assessment of clinics. Sample size calculations were made to detect effective coverage ranging 40-60% with a 2-3% margin of error, clinics were selected by probability sampling. We calculated inverse probability weighted percentages of: effective coverage of appropriate number and timing of screenings of ANC interventions; and coverage of at least one screening.ResultsCoverage of one screening and effective coverage of ANC interventions were notably different for screening for: hypertension (98% vs. 10%); fetal growth abnormalities (66% vs. 6%); anemia (93% vs. 14%); gestational diabetes (93% vs. 34%), and antenatal ultrasound (74% vs. 24%). Clinics with a laboratory and ultrasound generally performed better in terms of effective coverage, and maternal sociodemographic factors had no associations with effective coverage estimates. Only 13% of the women attended ANC visits according to the recommended national schedule, driving effective coverage down.ConclusionIndicators for ANC monitoring and their definitions can have important consequences for quantifying health system performance and identifying issues with care provision. To achieve more effective coverage in public primary care clinics in the West Bank, efforts should be made to improve care provision according to prescribed guidelines.

Background Policy making in healthcare requires reliable and local data. Different sources of coverage data for health interventions can be utilized to populate the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a commonly used policy-planning tool for women and children’s health. We have evaluated four existing sources of antenatal care data in Palestine to discuss the implications of their use in LiST. Methods We identified all intervention coverage and health status indicators around the antenatal period that could be used to populate LiST. These indicators were calculated from 1) routine reported data, 2) a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), 3) paper-based antenatal records and 4) the eRegistry (an electronic health information system) for public clinics in the West Bank, Palestine for the most recent year available. We scaled coverage of each indicator to 90%, in public clinics only, and compared this to a no-change scenario for a seven-year period. Results Eight intervention coverage and health status indicators needed to populate the antenatal section of LiST could be calculated from both paper-based antenatal records and the eRegistry. Only two could be calculated from routine reports and three from a national survey. Maternal lives saved over seven years ranged from 5 to 39, with percent reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) ranging from 1 to 6%. Pre-eclampsia management accounted for 25 to 100% of these lives saved. Conclusions The choice of data source for antenatal indicators will affect policy-based decisions when used to populate LiST. Although all data sources have their purpose, clinical data collected directly in an electronic registry during antenatal contacts may provide the most reliable and complete data to populate currently unavailable but needed indicators around specific antenatal care interventions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6427-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A purposeful literature review of peer-reviewed and gray literature identified 4 broad thematic areas of digital health stewardship—strategic direction, policies and procedures, roles and responsibilities, and health service delivery—that need further research and development in order for digital health to be better positioned to positively impact low- and middle-income country health systems., Background: Digital innovations have evolved over the last 15 years to support health activities, and their introduction in low- and middle-income countries has shown the potential to catalyze gains in health systems and service delivery. Despite widespread efforts to roll out these technologies, standardized approaches for formalizing national stewardship responsibilities and ensuring that digital health is a routine, mature, sustainable, and country-owned component of the health system are lacking. In this paper, we define digital health stewardship, with a focus on the ministry of health's role; describe practices undertaken to date; and identify gaps where increased attention could improve sustainability, impact, and local ownership. Methods: We conducted a purposeful review of peer-reviewed and gray literature. Of the 404 identified resources from the peer-reviewed literature, 12 met all of the inclusion criteria. After searching various online gray literature repositories, we identified 6 sources based on their quality, source, and relevance. Selected resources were abstracted for relevance to our stewardship themes and synthesized. Results: Findings are presented in 4 broad thematic areas: strategic direction, policies and procedures, roles and responsibilities, and health service delivery implications. Evidence related to strategic direction offers guidance on the main responsibilities under digital health stewardship, including regulations and incentives to promote compliance with standards, mechanisms for oversight, and structures to support evidence-based decisions, and the potential institutional structures and goals that could be used to achieve them. A number of examples of high-level policies and implementation-oriented procedures, such as from the European Commission and the World Health Organization, demonstrate how to operationalize the strategic direction. Available evidence for the remaining themes was sparse, drawing attention to key areas for future work. Conclusions: Despite the importance of country-owned stewardship of digital health, the guidance available is limited and aspirational. Concrete recommendations, including how to adapt existing innovations to the local context, are needed. In particular, the role of external partners needs to be oriented toward building and supporting country capacity to achieve digital health stewardship's potential to support health systems into the future.

Introduction Diarrhea is one of the leading causes of death in children under 5, and an estimated 39% of these deaths are attributable to rotavirus. Currently two live, oral rotavirus vaccines have been introduced on the market; however, the herd immunity effect associated with rotavirus vaccine has not yet been quantified. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to estimate the herd immunity effects associated with rotavirus vaccines. Methods We performed a systematic literature review of articles published between 2008 and 2014 that measured the impact of rotavirus vaccine on severe gastroenteritis (GE) morbidity or mortality. We assessed the quality of published studies using a standard protocol and conducted meta-analyses to estimate the herd immunity effect in children less than one year of age across all years presented in the studies. We conducted these analyses separately for studies reporting a rotavirus-specific GE outcome and those reporting an all-cause GE outcome. Results In studies reporting a rotavirus-specific GE outcome, four of five of which were conducted in the United States, the median herd effect across all study years was 22% [19–25%]. In studies reporting an all-cause GE outcome, all of which were conducted in Latin America, the median herd effect was 24.9% [11–30%]. Conclusions There is evidence that rotavirus vaccination confers a herd immunity effect in children under one year of age in the United States and Latin American countries. Given the high variability in vaccine efficacy across regions, more studies are needed to better examine herd immunity effects in high mortality regions.

Highlights • Vietnam's EPI has caused sharp decreases in vaccine-preventable disease incidence. • EPI may have saved over 370,000 lives. • EPI represents good value for money., Introduction Countries like Vietnam transitioning to middle-income status increasingly bear the cost of both existing and new vaccines. However, the impact and cost-effectiveness of the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) as a whole has never been assessed on a country level. Methods Data on vaccine-preventable disease incidence and mortality from Vietnam's national surveillance was analysed to estimate the likely impact that vaccination in 1980–2010 may have had. Adjustment for under-reporting was made by examining trends in reported mumps incidence and in case-fatality risks for each disease. The same data were separately analysed using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to give an alternative estimate of impact. The financial cost of EPI in 1996–2010 was also estimated from the perspective of service provider. Results National surveillance data suggests that up to 5.7 million diseases cases and 26,000 deaths may have been prevented by EPI. Analysis using LiST suggests that even more deaths (370,000) may have been prevented by measles and pertussis vaccination alone. The cost-effectiveness of EPI is estimated to be around $1000–$27,000 per death prevented. Conclusion Two separate approaches to assessing EPI impact in Vietnam give different quantitative results but a common conclusion: that EPI has made a substantial impact on mortality and represents good value for money.

Background Evidence has been accumulating that community health workers (CHWs) providing evidence-based interventions as part of community-based primary health care (CBPHC) can lead to reductions in maternal, neonatal and child mortality. However, investments to strengthen and scale-up CHW programs still remain modest. Methods We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the number of maternal, neonatal and child deaths and stillbirths that could be prevented if 73 countries effectively scaled up the population coverage of 30 evidence-based interventions that CHWs can deliver in these high-burden countries. We set population coverage targets at 50%, 70%, and 90% and summed the country-level results by region and by all 73 high-burden countries combined. We also estimated which specific interventions would save the most lives. Findings LiST estimates that a total of 3.0 (sensitivity bounds 1.8-4.0), 4.9 (3.1-6.3) and 6.9 (3.7-8.7) million deaths would be prevented between 2016 and 2020 if CBPHC is gradually scaled up during this period and if coverage of key interventions reaches 50%, 70%, and 90% respectively. There would be 14%, 23%, and 32% fewer deaths in the final year compared to a scenario assuming no intervention coverage scale up. The Africa Region would receive the most benefit by far: 58% of the lives saved at 90% coverage would be in this region. The interventions contributing the greatest impact are nutritional interventions during pregnancy, treatment of malaria with artemisinin compounds, oral rehydration solution for childhood diarrhea, hand washing with soap, and oral antibiotics for pneumonia. Conclusions Scaling up CHW programming to increase population-level coverage of life-saving interventions represents a very promising strategy to achieve universal health coverage and end preventable maternal and child deaths by 2030. Numerous practical challenges must be overcome, but there is no better alternative at present. Expanding the coverage of key interventions for maternal nutrition and treatment of childhood illnesses, in particular, may produce the greatest gains. Recognizing the millions of lives of mothers and their young offspring that could be achieved by expanding coverage of evidence-based interventions provided by CHWs and strengthening the CBPHC systems that support them underscores the pressing need for commitment from governments and donors over the next 15 years to prioritize funding, so that robust CHW platforms can be refined, strengthened, and expanded.

To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination againstWe estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion.By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.Estimer l'impact économique qui pourrait découler des efforts de vaccination contre 10 maladies à prévention vaccinale déployés entre 2001 et 2020 dans 73 pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire, et largement soutenus par Gavi, l'Alliance du Vaccin.Nous avons utilisé des modèles d'évaluation de l'impact sur la santé pour estimer l'impact économique qui découlerait, si le taux de couverture prévu est atteint, des vaccinations contreD'après nos estimations, les vaccinations pratiquées entre 2001 et 2020 dans les 73 pays permettront d'éviter plus de 20 millions de décès et d'économiser 350 milliards de dollars des États-Unis en coûts sanitaires. Les cas de décès et d'invalidité évités grâce à la vaccination pratiquée au cours de ces deux décennies entraîneront des gains de productivité permanents respectivement estimés à 330 milliards de dollars des États-Unis et 9 milliards de dollars des États-Unis. On estime qu'au cours de la vie des cohortes vaccinées, les mêmes vaccinations permettront d'économiser 5 milliards de dollars des États-Unis en coûts de traitement. La valeur économique et sociale au sens large de ces vaccinations est estimée à 820 milliards de dollars des États-Unis.L'impact de la vaccination dépasse le domaine de la santé, car il permet d'éviter d'importants coûts et une augmentation potentielle de la productivité économique de certains des pays les plus pauvres du monde.Estimar el impacto económico que probablemente se logaría con los esfuerzos de vacunar frente a 10 enfermedades evitables mediante la vacunación entre 2001 y 2020 en 73 países con ingresos bajos y medios ampliamente respaldados por la Gavi, la Vaccine Alliance.Se utilizaron modelos de impacto sanitario para estimar el impacto económico de lograr las coberturas previstas de vacunación frente aSe estimó que, en los 73 países, las vacunas suministradas entre 2001 y 2020 evitarán más de 20 millones de muertes y ahorrarán 350 000 millones de USD en costes de enfermedades. Las muertes y las discapacidades evitadas gracias a las vacunas suministradas durante las dos décadas tendrán como resultado unas ganancias permanentes estimadas en la productividad de un total de 330 000 millones de USD y 9 000 millones de USD, respectivamente. Durante la vida de las cohortes vacunadas, se estima que las mismas vacunaciones ahorrarán 5 000 millones de USD en costes de tratamientos. El valor económico y social más amplio de estas vacunas se estima en 820 000 millones de USD.El impacto de las vacunas es positivo más allá de la salud, ya que se evitan costes significativos y se aumenta potencialmente la productividad económica entre algunos de los países más pobres.الغرض تقدير الأثر الاقتصادي المحتمل من خلال الجهود المبذولة للتمنيع ضد 10 أمراض يمكن الوقاية منها باللقاحات في الفترة ما بين عامي 2001 و2020 في 73 بلدًا من البلدان منخفضة ومتوسطة الدخل التي تتلقى دعمًا واسع النطاق من جانب التحالف العالمي للقاحات والتحصين (Gavi) لإنتاج الأمصال. الطريقة استخدمنا نماذج الأثر الصحي لتقدير الأثر الاقتصادي لتحقيق التغطية المتوقعة للتمنيع ضد المستدمية النزلية من النوع (ب)، وفيروس التهاب الكبد (ب)، وفيروس الورم الحليمي البشري، والتهاب الدماغ الياباني، والحصبة، والزمرة المصلية النيسرية السحائية (أ)، والفيروس العجلي، والحصبة الألمانية، والعقدية الرئوية، والحمى الصفراء. وبالمقارنة مع عدم التمنيع، قمنا بوضع نموذج للتكاليف – المحتسبة في عام 2010 بالدولار الأمريكي – للمعالجة التي تم تفاديها وتكاليف النقل وخسائر الإنتاجية لدى مقدمي الرعاية وخسائر الإنتاجية بسبب العجز والوفاة. وقد استخدمنا طريقة التقييم على أساس العمر لتقدير القيمة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية الأوسع للعيش لفترة أطول، في صحة أفضل، نتيجة للحصول على التمنيع. النتائج تشير تقديراتنا إلى أن اللقاحات الممنوحة في الفترة ما بين عامي 2001 و2020 ستؤدي في 73 بلدًا إلى تفادي أكثر من 20 مليون حالة وفاة وتوفير 350 مليار دولار من تكاليف المرض. وستؤدي حالات الوفيات والعجز التي تم تمنيعها باللقاحات خلال العقدين إلى تحقيق مكاسب إنتاجية تستمر مدى الحياة بإجمالي 330 مليار دولار أمريكي و9 مليارات دولار أمريكي على التوالي. وعلى مدى عمر المجموعات الملقحة، فإن نفس عمليات التمنيع ستوفر ما يقدر بـ 5 مليارات دولار في تكاليف العلاج. وتُقدر القيمة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية الأوسع لهذه اللقاحات بمبلغ 820 مليار دولار أمريكي. الاستنتاج من خلال منع التكاليف الباهظة واحتمال زيادة الإنتاجية الاقتصادية بين بعض أفقر بلدان العالم، فإن أثر التمنيع يتخطى مجرد تحقيق منافع صحية.评估 2001 到 2020 年间 73 个中低收入国家通过针对 10 种疫苗可预防疾病进行疫苗接种可能实现的经济影响。评估主要由全球疫苗联盟 (Gavi) 提供支持。.我们使用健康影响模型评估了实现预期的我们估计 2001 年到 2020 年间,73 个国家的疫苗接种将避免超过 2000 万人的死亡数和节省 3500 亿美元的疾病成本。 二十年间通过疫苗接种避免的死亡和残疾数预计将分别带来总额为 3300 亿美元和 90 亿美元的终身生产力收益。 在接种疫苗人群的一生中接种同种疫苗预计会节省 50 亿的治疗成本。 预计此类疫苗接种的更广泛经济和社会价值达 8200 亿美元。.通过减少世界上一些最贫穷国家的重大开支和提高潜在的经济生产力,免疫接种的影响远不止在卫生领域。.Оценить экономические последствия, которые могут быть достигнуты благодаря усилиям в области вакцинации против 10 предупреждаемых вакцинацией болезней, в период с 2001 по 2020 г. в 73 странах с низким и средним уровнем дохода, которые в значительной степени поддерживаются ГАВИ (Глобальным альянсом по вакцинам и иммунизации).Мы использовали модели воздействия на здоровье для оценки экономических последствий достижения прогнозируемых покрытий вакцинацией против таких возбудителей инфекций, как Haemophilus influenzae типа b, вирус гепатита B, вирус папилломы человека, вирус японского энцефалита, вирус кори, Neisseria meningitidis серогруппы A, ротавирус, вирус краснухи, Streptococcus pneumoniae и вирус желтой лихорадки. При сравнении с отсутствием вакцинации мы моделировали затраты, выраженные в долларах США (US $) по курсу 2010 года: предотвращение расходов на лечение, транспортных расходов, нетрудоспособности лиц, ухаживающих за детьми, и нетрудоспособности из-за инвалидности и смерти. Мы использовали метод, основанный на ценности одного года жизни, чтобы оценить более широкую экономическую и социальную ценность более долгой жизни и лучшего состояния здоровья, достигнутых в результате иммунизации.Мы подсчитали, что в 73 странах вакцинации, проведенные в период с 2001 по 2020 г., предотвратят более 20 миллионов смертей и позволят сэкономить 350 миллиардов долларов США на затратах, связанных с болезнями. Смертность и инвалидность, предотвращенные с помощью вакцинации, проведенной в течение двух десятилетий, приведут к ожидаемому росту производительности труда на протяжении всей жизни на общую сумму 330 миллиардов долларов США и 9 миллиардов долларов США соответственно. В течение жизни вакцинированных когорт те же вакцинации позволят сэкономить приблизительно 5 миллиардов долларов США на расходах на лечение. Более широкая экономическая и социальная ценность этих вакцинаций оценивается в 820 миллиардов долларов США.Предотвращая значительные издержки и потенциально увеличивая экономическую производительность среди некоторых беднейших стран мира, влияние иммунизации выходит далеко за пределы здоровья.

Background In most low- and middle-income settings, national aggregate health data is the most consistently available source for policy-making and international comparisons. In the West Bank, the paper-based health information system with manual aggregations is transitioning to an individual-level data eRegistry for maternal and child health at the point-of-care. The aim of this study was to explore beforehand how routine health information systems indicators for antenatal care can change with the introduction of the eRegistry. Methods Data were collected from clinical antenatal paper records of pregnancy enrollments for 2015 from 17 primary healthcare clinics, selected by probability sampling from five districts in the West Bank. We used the individual-level data from clinical records to generate routinely reported health systems indicators. We weighted the data to produce population-level estimates, and compared these indicators with aggregate routine health information systems reports. Results Antenatal anemia screening at 36 weeks was 20% according to the clinical records data, compared to 52% in the routine reports. The clinical records data showed considerably higher incidences of key maternal conditions compared to the routine reports, including fundal height discrepancy (20% vs. 0.01%); Rh-negative blood group (6.8% vs. 1.4%); anemia with hemoglobin

Summary Background Urgent calls have been made for improved understanding of changes in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions, and their country-level determinants. We examined historical trends in coverage of interventions with proven effectiveness, and used them to project rates of child and neonatal mortality in 2035 in 74 Countdown to 2015 priority countries. Methods We investigated coverage of all interventions for which evidence was available to suggest effective reductions in maternal and child mortality, for which indicators have been defined, and data have been obtained through household surveys. We reanalysed coverage data from 312 nationally-representative household surveys done between 1990 and 2011 in 69 countries, including 58 Countdown countries. We developed logistic Loess regression models for patterns of coverage change for each intervention, and used k -means cluster analysis to divide interventions into three groups with different historical patterns of coverage change. Within each intervention group, we examined performance of each country in achieving coverage gains. We constructed models that included baseline coverage, region, gross domestic product, conflict, and governance to examine country-specific annual percentage coverage change for each group of indicators. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to predict mortality rates of children younger than 5 years (henceforth, under 5) and in the neonatal period in 2035 for Countdown countries if trends in coverage continue unchanged (historical trends scenario) and if each country accelerates intervention coverage to the highest level achieved by a Countdown country with similar baseline coverage level (best performer scenario). Results Odds of coverage of three interventions (antimalarial treatment, skilled attendant at birth, and use of improved sanitation facilities) have decreased since 1990, with a mean annual decrease of 5·5% (SD 2·7%). Odds of coverage of four interventions—all related to the prevention of malaria—have increased rapidly, with a mean annual increase of 27·9% (7·3%). Odds of coverage of other interventions have slowly increased, with a mean annual increase of 5·3% (3·5%). Rates of coverage change varied widely across countries; we could not explain the differences by measures of gross domestic product, conflict, or governance. On the basis of LiST projections, we predicted that the number of Countdown countries with an under-5 mortality rate of fewer than 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from four (5%) of the 74 in 2010, to nine (12%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and to 15 (20%) under the best performer scenario. The number of countries with neonatal mortality rates of fewer than 11 per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from three (4%) in 2010, to ten (14%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and 67 (91%) under the best performer scenario. The number of under-5 deaths per year would decrease from an estimated 7·6 million in 2010, to 5·4 million (28% decrease) if historical trends continue, and to 2·3 million (71% decrease) under the best performer scenario. Interpretation Substantial reductions in child deaths are possible, but only if intensified efforts to achieve intervention coverage are implemented successfully within each of the Countdown countries. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Universal health coverage (UHC) continues to receive considerable attention from the global health community. UHC was the main topic of the 2010 World Health Report (WHO 2010), the main topic in 2012 issues of The Lancet (2012) and Health Policy and Planning (McIntyre and Mills 2012), and the theme of the Second Global Symposium on Health Systems Research in Beijing in 2012. Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), stated that “universal health coverage [is] the single most powerful concept that public health has to offer” (Chan 2012). This continued attention led to the 2013 World Health Report, which discusses the role that research can play in answering important questions about UHC (WHO 2013).Although substantial variation is a hallmark of UHC initiatives, UHC is generally viewed along three dimensions: who is covered, what services are covered, and the proportion of the costs that are covered (WHO 2010). One financing option, universal public finance (UPF), involves the government shouldering the entire cost of specific services, regardless of who receives them. The potential benefits of UPF include improved health outcomes and improved financial risk protection (FRP). However, the evidence available to policy makers is limited with respect to the magnitude and distribution of these benefits.Extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) (Verguet, Gauvreau, and others 2015; Verguet and Jamison 2015; Verguet, Laxminarayan, and Jamison 2015; Verguet, Olson, and others 2015; Verguet and others 2013) provides a tool with which to gain a more complete understanding of the health and financial benefits associated with different health policies and interventions. ECEA combines the traditional health system perspective of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) with the patient perspective, notably through the quantification of the benefits associated with avoiding medical impoverishment and the assessment of the distributional consequences, that is equity, of policies (Verguet, Laxminarayan, and Jamison 2015). This tool helps policy makers make decisions based on the joint benefits and tradeoffs associated with different policies and interventions, specifically in health gains, FRP and equity benefits.In 2013 in Ethiopia, about 60,000 children under age five years died as a result of pneumonia or diarrhea, the fifth-highest absolute level worldwide (IVAC 2013). Studies have associated the incidence of both conditions with socioeconomic status (Fekadu, Terefe, and Alemie 2014; Mihrete, Alemie, and Teferra 2014), suggesting that an evaluation of the impact of prevention and treatment services by income quintile would be suitable.This chapter uses ECEA methods to examine UPF of the prevention and treatment of pneumonia and diarrhea in Ethiopia, with a focus on children under age five years. The combination of prevention and treatment options illustrates health and FRP benefits brought by the different intervention packages available to decision makers. This analysis also examines these benefits by income quintile so that policy makers can better understand how each package affects different segments of the population—a critical element of UHC. A 20 percentage point increase in coverage is modeled. Our purpose is to expose with simplicity the broad implications for policy makers rather than to provide them with definitive estimates, hence the presentation of limited rudimentary sensitivity analyses. After we summarize current child health services in Ethiopia, we outline the methods used in this chapter, which draw from the ECEA methodology (Verguet, Laxminarayan, and Jamison 2015). Then, we present results—both health and financial protection—for the following:Finally, we discuss the implications of the findings and conclude.

This first paper of the Lancet Series on ending preventable stillbirths reviews progress in essential areas, identified in the 2011 call to action for stillbirth prevention, to inform the integrated post-2015 agenda for maternal and newborn health. Worldwide attention to babies who die in stillbirth is rapidly increasing, from integration within the new Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health, to country policies inspired by the Every Newborn Action Plan. Supportive new guidance and metrics including stillbirth as a core health indicator and measure of quality of care are emerging. Prenatal health is a crucial biological foundation to life-long health. A key priority is to integrate action for prenatal health within the continuum of care for maternal and newborn health. Still, specific actions for stillbirths are needed for advocacy, policy formulation, monitoring, and research, including improvement in the dearth of data for effective coverage of proven interventions for prenatal survival. Strong leadership is needed worldwide and in countries. Institutions with a mandate to lead global efforts for mothers and their babies must assert their leadership to reduce stillbirths by promoting healthy and safe pregnancies.

Background The Global Roadmap for Health Measurement and Accountability sees integrated systems for health information as key to obtaining seamless, sustainable, and secure information exchanges at all levels of health systems. The Global Strategy for Women’s, Children’s and Adolescent’s Health aims to achieve a continuum of quality of care with effective coverage of interventions. The WHO and World Bank recommend that countries focus on intervention coverage to monitor programs and progress for universal health coverage. Electronic health registries - eRegistries - represent integrated systems that secure a triple return on investments: First, effective single data collection for health workers to seamlessly follow individuals along the continuum of care and across disconnected cadres of care providers. Second, real-time public health surveillance and monitoring of intervention coverage, and third, feedback of information to individuals, care providers and the public for transparent accountability. This series on eRegistries presents frameworks and tools to facilitate the development and secure operation of eRegistries for maternal and child health. Methods In this first paper of the eRegistries Series we have used WHO frameworks and taxonomy to map how eRegistries can support commonly used electronic and mobile applications to alleviate health systems constraints in maternal and child health. A web-based survey of public health officials in 64 low- and middle-income countries, and a systematic search of literature from 2005–2015, aimed to assess country capacities by the current status, quality and use of data in reproductive health registries. Results eRegistries can offer support for the 12 most commonly used electronic and mobile applications for health. Countries are implementing health registries in various forms, the majority in transition from paper-based data collection to electronic systems, but very few have eRegistries that can act as an integrating backbone for health information. More mature country capacity reflected by published health registry based research is emerging in settings reaching regional or national scale, increasingly with electronic solutions. 66 scientific publications were identified based on 32 registry systems in 23 countries over a period of 10 years; this reflects a challenging experience and capacity gap for delivering sustainable high quality registries. Conclusions Registries are being developed and used in many high burden countries, but their potential benefits are far from realized as few countries have fully transitioned from paper-based health information to integrated electronic backbone systems. Free tools and frameworks exist to facilitate progress in health information for women and children. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12884-016-0801-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Governments constantly face the challenge of determining how much they should spend to prevent premature deaths and suffering in their populations. In this article we explore the benefits of expanding the delivery of life-saving vaccines in seventy-two low- and middle-income countries, which we estimate would prevent the deaths of 6.4 million children between 2011 and 2020. We present the economic benefits of vaccines by using a "value of statistical life" approach, which is based on individuals' perceptions regarding the trade-off between income and increased risk of mortality. Our analysis shows that the vaccine expansion described above corresponds to $231 billion (uncertainty range: $116-$614 billion) in the value of statistical lives saved. This analysis complements results from analyses based on other techniques and is the first of its kind for immunizations in the world's poorest countries. It highlights the major economic benefits made possible by improving vaccine coverage.

Background There is an increasing body of evidence from trials suggesting that major reductions in neonatal mortality are possible through community-based interventions. Since these trials involve packages of varying content, determining how much of the observed mortality reduction is due to specific interventions is problematic. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is designed to facilitate programmatic prioritization by modelling mortality reductions related to increasing coverage of specific interventions which may be combined into packages. Methods To assess the validity of LiST outputs, we compared predictions generated by LiST with observed neonatal mortality reductions in trials of packages which met inclusion criteria but were not used as evidence inputs for LiST. Results Four trials, all from South Asia, met the inclusion criteria. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) predicted by LiST matched the observed rate very closely in two effectiveness-type trials. LiST predicted NMR reduction was close (absolute difference

Background The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) projects the magnitude of mortality reduction based on baseline coverage, demographic characteristics and coverage targets. As a validation exercise, we compared neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, child and under-5 mortality reductions as projected by LiST to changes in mortality measured through demographic surveys in Ghana and Mali as part of a recently completed, retrospective evaluation of a child survival programme. Methods Using coverage and other information collected during the evaluation, we modelled the predicted mortality reduction, using logical assumptions to fill gaps if no data were available. We performed a sensitivity analysis on several indicators for which we used a proxy, using the results to examine model sensitivity and readdress our assumptions. Results In Ghana, the modelled mortality reductions were within the 95% confidence boundaries of the measured reduction. In Mali LiST significantly underestimated the reduction. Several coverage indicators were found to influence the projection, specifically case management of serious neonatal illness in both countries and pneumonia treatment, vitamin A measles treatment and breastfeeding promotion in Mali. Conclusions We consider LiST to be a useful tool given the limitations of the available data. Although the model was a good match in Ghana, we identified several limiting factors with the input data in the Mali projection. This exercise highlights the importance of continually improving the availability of sound demographic, epidemiological and intervention coverage data at district and national levels. More comparative studies are needed to fully assess the strengths and weaknesses of LiST.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of planned efforts to target the poor child survival programs often favour the rich. Further evidence is needed urgently about which interventions and programme approaches are most effective in addressing inequities. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is available and can be used to model mortality levels across economic groups based on coverage levels for child survival interventions. METHODS: We used LiST to model neonatal and under-5 mortality levels among the highest and the lowest wealth quintiles in Bangladesh based on national and wealth-quintile-specific coverage of child survival interventions. The cause-of-death structure among children under-5 was also modelled using the coverage levels. Modelled rates were compared to the rates measured directly from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey and associated verbal autopsies. RESULTS: Modelled estimates of mortality within wealth quintiles fell within the 95% confidence intervals of measured mortality for both neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. LiST also performed well in predicting the cause-of-death structure for these two age groups for the poorest quintile of the population but less well for the richest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: LiST holds promise as a useful tool for assessing socio-economic inequities in child survival in low-income countries.

Summary We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate deaths averted if midwifery was scaled up in 78 countries classified into three tertiles using the Human Development Index (HDI). We selected interventions in LiST to encompass the scope of midwifery practice, including prepregnancy, antenatal, labour, birth, and post-partum care, and family planning. Modest (10%), substantial (25%), or universal (95%) scale-up scenarios from present baseline levels were all found to reduce maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths by 2025 in all countries tested. With universal coverage of midwifery interventions for maternal and newborn health, excluding family planning, for the countries with the lowest HDI, 61% of all maternal, fetal, and neonatal deaths could be prevented. Family planning alone could prevent 57% of all deaths because of reduced fertility and fewer pregnancies. Midwifery with both family planning and interventions for maternal and newborn health could avert a total of 83% of all maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths. The inclusion of specialist care in the scenarios resulted in an increased number of deaths being prevented, meaning that midwifery care has the greatest effect when provided within a functional health system with effective referral and transfer mechanisms to specialist care.

While the importance of mHealth scale-up has been broadly emphasized in the mHealth community, it is necessary to guide scale up efforts and investment in ways to help achieve the mortality reduction targets set by global calls to action such as the Millennium Development Goals, not merely to expand programs. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)--an evidence-based modeling software--to identify priority areas for maternal and neonatal health services, by formulating six individual and combined interventions scenarios for two countries, Bangladesh and Uganda. Our findings show that skilled birth attendance and increased facility delivery as targets for mHealth strategies are likely to provide the biggest mortality impact relative to other intervention scenarios. Although further validation of this model is desirable, tools such as LiST can help us leverage the benefit of mHealth by articulating the most appropriate delivery points in the continuum of care to save lives.

We assessed the effect of distribution of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine in the private health care sector on Hib meningitis admissions at a referral hospital in India. The annual mean number of Hib cases was 10.7 before Hib vaccine introduction, falling to 3.8 cases following introduction (P < 0.0001). By contrast, the mean of annual numbers of pneumococcal cases were 3.0 and 4.6, (P = 0.55). Even at relatively low coverage through private sector distribution, Hib vaccine has significant community impact on Hib disease.

Early-onset torsion dystonia, an autosomal dominant disease associated with the DYT1 locus on 9q34, is the most frequent genetic form of dystonia. Recent work has revealed that the causative mutation in most cases is deletion of a glutamate residue from the carboxy terminal of torsinA, a 332 amino acid protein encoded by the DYT1 gene. To gain insight into how deletion of a single amino acid can produce such a profound movement disorder, we have mapped the expression of the DYT1 gene in normal human postmortem brain. DYT1 mRNA is highly enriched in the dopamine neurons of the substantia nigra pars compacta. Intense expression was also found in the cerebellum and hippocampal subfields. The prominent expression of the DYT1 gene within the substantia nigra pars compacta, which provides dopaminergic innervation to the basal ganglia, implicates a disturbance of dopaminergic function in the pathophysiology of early-onset torsion dystonia.

The corticostriatal pathway is among the largest glutamatergic pathways in the brain, and of particular interest to the study of glutamatergic transmission. The metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluRs) couple the actions of glutamate to intracellular second messenger systems through G-proteins. The most prominent of the mGluRs present in the target of this pathway, the striatum, is mGluR5. The identity of the G-proteins mediating the actions of mGluR5 are unknown, but the receptor is linked to stimulation of phosphoinositide (PI) turnover and largely resistant to the effects of pertussis toxin, which inhibits some G-proteins. We used in situ hybridization to examine the expression and regulation of three pertussis toxin insensitive G-protein alpha sub-units: Gq, G11, and Gz. We found that these mRNAs are differentially distributed in the rat brain, but all three are expressed by striatal neurons. After glutamatergic deafferentation of the striatum by decortication, there is a modest upregulation of G11 mRNA, while expression of Gq and Gz are unchanged. Following dopaminergic deafferentation, expression of Gq, G11, and Gz are not altered, although expression of the pertussis-sensitive sub-unit Go is increased. Our data suggests that Gz, Gq, and G11 are each expressed by striatal neurons, and therefore may be involved in mediating the actions of mGluR5 in these cells. After decortication G11 is upregulated, but the magnitude of this effect is small, and alone seems insufficient to account for the marked biochemical supersensitivity of glutamate-stimulated PI turnover which is observed.

Metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluRs), which couple glutamate to second messengers, have important roles in the regulation of movement by the basal ganglia. We used two polyclonal antisera to mGluR1a and mGluR2/3 and confocal laser microscopy to investigate the localization of these receptors in the basal ganglia of the rat. The mGluRs were visualized in combination with an antibody to tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), an antibody to microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2, a dendritic marker), or SV2 (an antibody to a protein associated with presynaptic terminals). In the neostriatum, punctate mGluR1a immunoreactivity (ir) was present in the neuropil. This staining did not colocalize with MAP2-ir or SV2-ir and was not altered by decortication or unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) lesions. In the globus pallidus and substantia nigra pars reticulata, however, mGluR1a-ir was tightly clustered along large MAP2-ir dendrites. In contrast to the variations in mGluR1a-ir staining, similar punctate neuropil mGluR2/3-ir staining was observed within all basal ganglia structures. In the neostriatum, these puncta were abundant; unlike mGluR1a, many mGluR2/3-ir puncta colocalized with SV2-ir, and striatal mGluR2/3-ir puncta were markedly reduced in number after decortication. Neither mGluR1a-ir nor mGluR2/3-ir could be detected in TH-ir soma within substantia nigra pars compacta, or in TH-ir striatal terminals. Overall, our observations suggest that mGluR1a and mGluR2/3 receptors have distinct cellular localizations in different components of the basal ganglia circuitry and are likely to subserve distinct functions. Our data support the presence of mGluR2/3 on the terminals of corticostriatal afferents, where they may regulate glutamate release. In contrast, mGluR1a appears to be a postsynaptic receptor of neurons in the neostriatum, globus pallidus, and substantia nigra pars reticulata.

A 30-cluster survey using a modified WHO method was performed to assess the healthcare utilisation patterns for respiratory illnesses in Indian children5 years of age. Families of 600 children were interviewed to assess respiratory illness and healthcare utilisation during the previous month as well as hypothetical healthcare-seeking behaviour in the future. Based on parental report, 381 children (63.5%) had experienced a respiratory illness 1 month prior to the interview; 10 children were reported to have had severe pneumonia, 49 non-severe pneumonia and 322 upper respiratory illnesses (URI), extrapolating to 0.20 (95% CI 0.1-0.4), 0.98 (0.7-1.3) and 6.44 (6.0-6.9) cases per child-year, respectively. Five severe pneumonia cases (50%) were reported to have directly accessed care at a secondary or tertiary care centre, whilst 18 children (36.7%) with non-severe pneumonia and 56 children (17.4%) with URI were reported to have been seen at secondary or tertiary centres. The remaining respiratory illnesses were reported to have been seen by primary care physicians, pharmacists, traditional healers and friends or were not seen by a healthcare professional. This community-based Indian study suggests that, in this community, tertiary care surveillance alone may not accurately sample community disease, even for severe illnesses.

Background Access to improved sanitation plays an important role in child health through its impact on diarrheal mortality and malnutrition. Inequities in sanitation coverage translate into health inequities across socio-economic groups. This paper presents the differential impact on child mortality and diarrheal incidence of expanding sanitation coverage across wealth quintiles in Nepal. Methods We modeled three scale up coverage scenarios at the national level and at each of the 5 wealth quintiles for improved sanitation in Nepal in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST): equal for all quintiles, realistically pro-poor and ambitiously pro-poor. Results The results show that equal improvement in sanitation coverage can save a total of 226 lives (10.7% of expected diarrhea deaths), while a realistically pro-poor program can save 451 child lives (20.5%) and the ambitiously pro-poor program can save 542 lives (24.6%). Conclusions Pro-poor policies for expanding sanitation coverage have the ability to reduce population level health inequalities which can translate into reduced child diarrheal mortality.

Introduction From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Methods The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae , rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. Results By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011–2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Conclusion Vaccination of persons during 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

Background Trends in the causes of child mortality serve as important global health information to guide efforts to improve child survival. With child mortality declining in Bangladesh, the distribution of causes of death also changes. The three verbal autopsy (VA) studies conducted with the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys provide a unique opportunity to study these changes in child causes of death. Methods To ensure comparability of these trends, we developed a standardized algorithm to assign causes of death using symptoms collected through the VA studies. The original algorithms applied were systematically reviewed and key differences in cause categorization, hierarchy, case definition, and the amount of data collected were compared to inform the development of the standardized algorithm. Based primarily on the 2004 cause categorization and hierarchy, the standardized algorithm guarantees comparability of the trends by only including symptom data commonly available across all three studies. Results Between 1993 and 2004, pneumonia remained the leading cause of death in Bangladesh, contributing to 24% to 33% of deaths among children under 5. The proportion of neonatal mortality increased significantly from 36% (uncertainty range [UR]: 31%-41%) to 56% (49%-62%) during the same period. The cause-specific mortality fractions due to birth asphyxia/birth injury and prematurity/low birth weight (LBW) increased steadily, with both rising from 3% (2%-5%) to 13% (10%-17%) and 10% (7%-15%), respectively. The cause-specific mortality rates decreased significantly due to neonatal tetanus and several postneonatal causes (tetanus: from 7 [4-11] to 2 [0.4-4] per 1,000 live births (LB); pneumonia: from 26 [20-33] to 15 [11-20] per 1,000 LB; diarrhea: from 12 [8-17] to 4 [2-7] per 1,000 LB; measles: from 5 [2-8] to 0.2 [0-0.7] per 1,000 LB; injury: from 11 [7-17] to 3 [1-5] per 1,000 LB; and malnutrition: from 9 [6-13] to 5 [2-7]). Conclusions Pneumonia remained the top killer of children under 5 in Bangladesh between 1993 and 2004. The increasing importance of neonatal survival is highlighted by the growing contribution of neonatal deaths and several neonatal causes. Notwithstanding the limitations, standardized computer-based algorithms remain a promising tool to generate comparable causes of child death using VA data.

Worldwide, 2·65 million (uncertainty range 2·08 million to 3·79 million) stillbirths occur yearly, of which 98% occur in countries of low and middle income. Despite the fact that more than 45% of the global burden of stillbirths occur intrapartum, the perception is that little is known about effective interventions, especially those that can be implemented in low-resource settings. We undertook a systematic review of randomised trials and observational studies of interventions which could reduce the burden of stillbirths, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We identified several interventions with sufficient evidence to recommend implementation in health systems, including periconceptional folic acid supplementation or fortification, prevention of malaria, and improved detection and management of syphilis during pregnancy in endemic areas. Basic and comprehensive emergency obstetric care were identified as key effective interventions to reduce intrapartum stillbirths. Broad-scale implementation of intervention packages across 68 countries listed as priorities in the Countdown to 2015 report could avert up to 45% of stillbirths according to a model generated from the Lives Saved Tool. The overall costs for these interventions are within the general estimates of cost-effective interventions for maternal care, especially in view of the effects on outcomes across maternal, fetal, and neonatal health.

Summary The causes of stillbirths are inseparable from the causes of maternal and neonatal deaths. This report focuses on prevention of stillbirths by scale-up of care for mothers and babies at the health-system level, with consideration for effects and cost. In countries with high mortality rates, emergency obstetric care has the greatest effect on maternal and neonatal deaths, and on stillbirths. Syphilis detection and treatment is of moderate effect but of lower cost and is highly feasible. Advanced antenatal care, including induction for post-term pregnancies, and detection and management of hypertensive disease, fetal growth restriction, and gestational diabetes, will further reduce mortality, but at higher cost. These interventions are best packaged and provided through linked service delivery methods tailored to suit existing health-care systems. If 99% coverage is reached in 68 priority countries by 2015, up to 1·1 million (45%) third-trimester stillbirths, 201 000 (54%) maternal deaths, and 1·4 million (43%) neonatal deaths could be saved per year at an additional total cost of US$10·9 billion or $2·32 per person, which is in the range of $0·96–2·32 for other ingredients-based intervention packages with only recurrent costs.

Using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) Christa Fischer-Walker and colleagues estimate that scale-up of diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions over 5 years in 68 high child mortality countries could avert nearly 5 million deaths., Background Diarrhea remains a leading cause of mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Although the evidence for individual diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions is solid, the effect a comprehensive scale-up effort would have on diarrhea mortality has not been estimated. Methods and Findings We use the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the potential lives saved if two scale-up scenarios for key diarrhea interventions (oral rehydration salts [ORS], zinc, antibiotics for dysentery, rotavirus vaccine, vitamin A supplementation, basic water, sanitation, hygiene, and breastfeeding) were implemented in the 68 high child mortality countries. We also conduct a simple costing exercise to estimate cost per capita and total costs for each scale-up scenario. Under the ambitious (feasible improvement in coverage of all interventions) and universal (assumes near 100% coverage of all interventions) scale-up scenarios, we demonstrate that diarrhea mortality can be reduced by 78% and 92%, respectively. With universal coverage nearly 5 million diarrheal deaths could be averted during the 5-year scale-up period for an additional cost of US$12.5 billion invested across 68 priority countries for individual-level prevention and treatment interventions, and an additional US$84.8 billion would be required for the addition of all water and sanitation interventions. Conclusion Using currently available interventions, we demonstrate that with improved coverage, diarrheal deaths can be drastically reduced. If delivery strategy bottlenecks can be overcome and the international community can collectively deliver on the key strategies outlined in these scenarios, we will be one step closer to achieving success for the United Nations' Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) by 2015. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary, Editors' Summary Background Diarrhea—passing three or more loose or liquid stools per day—kills about 1.5 million young children every year, mainly in low- and middle-income countries. It is the second leading cause of death in under-5-year olds and causes nearly one in five child deaths. Diarrhea, which can lead to life-threatening dehydration, is a common symptom of gastrointestinal infections. The viruses, bacteria and parasites that cause diarrhea spread through contaminated food or drinking water, and from person-to-person through poor hygiene and inadequate sanitation (unsafe disposal of human excreta). Interventions that prevent diarrhea include improvements in water supplies, sanitation and hygiene, the promotion of breastfeeding, vitamin A supplementation, and vaccination against rotavirus (a major cause of diarrhea). Treatments for diarrhea include oral rehydration salts (ORS), which prevent and treat dehydration, and zinc supplementation, which decreases the severity and duration of diarrhea, and antibiotics for dysentery. Why Was This Study Done? Deaths from diarrhea in young children have declined markedly over the past 30 years. However, if diarrhea deaths are not reduced further, it is unlikely that Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4; one of the goals agreed by world leaders in 2000 to reduce poverty)—the reduction of child mortality by two-thirds of the 1990 level by 2015—will be reached. In 2009, UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) proposed a new diarrhea reduction plan. Although the effect of individual interventions in this plan is established, the likely effect of the whole package on diarrhea mortality has not been estimated. Such information would be useful for health policy planning. In this study, the researchers use the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the potential lives saved by scale-up of diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions in 68 high child mortality countries that together account for 95% of child deaths. LiST is a child survival modeling tool that uses country-level under-5 death rates and cause of death profiles to model the effects of changes in health intervention package coverage on deaths among children. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers calculated 2010 (baseline) coverage values for seven prevention interventions (breastfeeding, vitamin A supplementation, hand washing with soap, improved sanitation, improved water source, better household water treatment, and rotavirus vaccination) and for three treatment interventions (ORS, zinc supplementation, and antibiotics for dysentery) from published data. They then used LiST to estimate the effect on diarrhea deaths of scaling up intervention coverage according to two scenarios. The “ambitious” scenario assumed a feasible increase in the coverage of all interventions from the baseline year to 2015 in 68 countries with high child mortality. The “universal” scenario assumed an increase to near 100% coverage for all the interventions. Diarrhea mortality was reduced by 78% and 92% by 2015 under the ambitious and universal scenarios, respectively. Over the 5 years of the scale-up, the universal scenario averted nearly 5 million deaths. The researchers also estimated that the additional costs in 2015 of personal prevention and treatment interventions would be US$0.80 per capita with universal coverage; the additional costs for these interventions and all sanitation and water interventions would be US$3.24 per capita. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings suggest that, with currently available interventions, it should be possible to reduce diarrhea deaths substantially at a reasonable cost. As with all computer models, the accuracy of these findings depends on the data and assumptions fed into the model, which does not, for example, account for the difficulties that may be encountered in scaling up intervention coverage in hard to reach populations. Similarly, the estimated costs associated with the two scenarios do not include the resources required to strengthen health systems in developing countries so that they are able to sustain high coverage levels of diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions. Nevertheless, these findings suggest that child mortality due to diarrhea could be significantly reduced by 2015 provided the international community acts collectively to deliver these interventions. Most importantly, the potential 1.4 million lives saved in that year would bring MDG4 a step closer simply by implementing existing low cost and effective interventions. Additional Information Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000428. The World Health Organization provides information on diarrhea (in several languages); its 2009 report with UNICEF Diarrhea: why children are still dying and what can be done, which includes the WHO/UNICEF treatment and prevention plan, can be downloaded from the Internet The children's charity UNICEF, which protects the rights of children and young people around the world, provides information on water, sanitation, and hygiene, and on diarrhea (in several languages) The United Nations Millennium Development Goals provides information on ongoing world efforts to reduce child mortality More details on LiST are available

This paper estimates the lives that could be saved by scaling up proven health interventions in a variety of health systems categorized by skilled birth attendance categories to maximize progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. It describes the two methods that were employed for this analysis including country information intervention selection modeling and costing and shares the results and implications.

Background African countries are working to achieve rapid reductions in maternal and child mortality and meet their targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Partners in the Catalytic Initiative to Save One Million Lives (CI) are assisting them by providing funding and technical assistance to increase and accelerate coverage for proven interventions. Here we describe how the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used as part of an early assessment of the expected impact of CI plans in Malawi, Burkina Faso and Ghana. Methods LiST builds on country-specific demographic and cause-of-death profiles, and models the effect of changes in coverage for proven interventions on future levels of mortality among children less than 5 years of age. We worked with representatives of Ministries of Health and their development partners to apply LiST to assess the potential impact of CI plans and coverage targets, generating a short list of the highest-priority interventions for additional scale-up to achieve rapid reductions in under-5 mortality. Results The results show that in each country, achieving national coverage targets for just four or five high-impact interventions could reduce under-5 mortality by at least 20% by 2011, relative to 2006 levels. Even greater gains could be obtained in Burkina Faso and Ghana by scaling up these high-impact interventions to 80%. Discussion LiST can contribute to the development of stronger programmes by identifying the highest-impact interventions in a given epidemiological setting. The quality of LiST estimates is dependent on the available data on coverage levels and causes of death, and assumes that the target levels of coverage are feasible in a given context while maintaining service quality. Further experience is needed in the feasibility and usefulness of LiST as part of the program planning process at district and subdistrict levels.

Objective To assess the impact of a paraprofessional-delivered home-visiting intervention to promote child care knowledge, skills, and involvement among pregnant American Indian adolescents. Design Randomized controlled trial comparing a family-strengthening intervention with a breastfeeding education program. Setting One Apache and 3 Navajo communities. Participants Fifty-three pregnant American Indian adolescents were randomly assigned to intervention (n = 28) or control (n = 25) groups. Follow-up data were available for 19 intervention and 22 control participants. Intervention Paraprofessionals delivered 41 prenatal and infant care lessons in participants' homes from 28 weeks' gestation to 6 months post partum. Main Outcome Measures Child care knowledge, skills, and involvement. Results Mothers in the intervention compared with the control group had significantly higher parent knowledge scores at 2 months (adjusted mean difference [AMD], +14.9 [95% confidence interval (CI), +7.5 to +22.4]) and 6 months post partum (AMD, +15.3 [95% CI, +5.9 to +24.7]). Intervention group mothers scored significantly higher on maternal involvement scales at 2 months post partum (AMD, +1.5 [95% CI, −0.02 to +3.02]), and scores approached significance at 6 months post partum (AMD, +1.1 [95% CI, −0.06 to +2.2]). No between-group differences were found for child care skills. Conclusions A paraprofessional-delivered, family-strengthening home-visiting program significantly increased mothers' child care knowledge and involvement. A longer and larger trial is needed to understand the intervention's potential to improve adolescent parenting and related child outcomes in American Indian communities.

NMDA receptors are composed of proteins from two families: NMDAR1 and NMDAR2. We used quantitative double-label in situ hybridization to examine in rat brain the expression of NMDAR1, NMDAR2A, NMDAR2B, and NMDAR2C mRNA in six neurochemically defined populations of striatal neurons: preproenkephalin (ENK) and preprotachykinin (SP) expressing projection neurons, and somatostatin (SOM), glutamic acid decarboxylase 67 (GAD67), parvalbumin (PARV), and choline acetyltransferase (ChAT) expressing interneurons. NMDAR1 was expressed by all striatal neurons: strongly in ENK, SP, PARV and ChAT neurons, and less intensely in SOM and GAD67 positive cells. NMDAR2A mRNA was present at moderate levels in all striatal neurons except those containing ChAT. Labeling for NMDAR2B was strong in projection neurons and ChAT interneurons, and only moderate in SOM, GAD67 and PARV interneurons. NMDAR2C was scarce in striatal neurons, but a low level signal was detected in GAD67 positive cells. NMDAR2C expression was also observed in small cells not labeled by any of the markers, most likely glia. These data suggest that all striatal neurons have NMDA receptors, but different populations have different subunit compositions which may affect function as well as selective vulnerability.

This paper provides an overview of the historical development and current status of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). The paper provides a general explanation of the modeling approach used in the model with links to web sites and other articles with more details. It also details the development process in developing both the model structure as well as the assumptions used in the model. The paper provides information about how LiST has been and is currently being used by various organizations and within national health programs. We also provide a review of the work that has been done to try to validate the outputs of the model.

Background Insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and indoor-residual spraying have been scaled-up across sub-Saharan Africa as part of international efforts to control malaria. These interventions have the potential to significantly impact child survival. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was developed to provide national and regional estimates of cause-specific mortality based on the extent of intervention coverage scale-up. We compared the percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST against measured reductions in all-cause child mortality from studies assessing the impact of vector control interventions in Africa. Methods We performed a literature search for appropriate studies and compared reductions in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST to 4 studies that estimated changes in all-cause child mortality following the scale-up of vector control interventions. The following key parameters measured by each study were applied to available country projections: baseline all-cause child mortality rate, proportion of mortality due to malaria, and population coverage of vector control interventions at baseline and follow-up years. Results The percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by the LiST model fell within the confidence intervals around the measured mortality reductions for all 4 studies. Two of the LiST estimates overestimated the mortality reductions by 6.1 and 4.2 percentage points (33% and 35% relative to the measured estimates), while two underestimated the mortality reductions by 4.7 and 6.2 percentage points (22% and 25% relative to the measured estimates). Conclusions The LiST model did not systematically under- or overestimate the impact of ITNs on all-cause child mortality. These results show the LiST model to perform reasonably well at estimating the effect of vector control scale-up on child mortality when compared against measured data from studies across a range of malaria transmission settings. The LiST model appears to be a useful tool in estimating the potential mortality reduction achieved from scaling-up malaria control interventions.