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The Atlantic Nino is one of the most important patterns of interannual tropical climate variability, but how climate change will influence this pattern is not well known due to large climate model biases. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models robustly predict a weakening of Atlantic Ninos in response to global warming, mainly due to a decoupling of subsurface and surface temperature variations as the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean warms. This weakening is predicted by most (>80%) models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 under the highest emission scenarios. Our results indicate a reduction in variability by the end of the century by 14%, and as much as 24-48% when accounting for model errors using a simple emergent constraint analysis. Such a weakening of Atlantic Nino variability will potentially impact climate conditions and the skill of seasonal predictions in many regions. The Atlantic Nino is an important mode of tropical climate variability, but how it reacts to climate change is not well known due to model biases. Here the authors show a robust weakening of the Atlantic Nino of up to 24-48% under high emissions until the end of the century.

While the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the tropical Atlantic has been well established, recent studies have suggested that sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic can, in turn, excite ENSO events. The importance of this influence, however, remains uncertain, with a few recent studies suggesting that it is weak or even just a statistical artifact. Here we use numerical experiments with the GFDL CM 2.1 general circulation model (GCM) to shine new light on this issue. Our approach relies on a combination of perfect model hindcasts and pacemaker experiments, i.e., we restore SST to climatology in selected basins during perfect model hindcasts.The experiments show that developing ENSO events are not sensitive to SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. The decay of ENSO events, on the other hand, can be substantially accelerated by SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Perhaps most strikingly, SST anomalies in both the equatorial and northern tropical Atlantic fail to develop when ENSO events are suppressed. The results suggest that, in the context of CM 2.1, the tropical Atlantic cannot initiate ENSO events. It does, however, play an important role in the termination of ENSO, and thus could be considered as a brake that is activated by ENSO itself., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

BepiColombo MPO and Mio spacecraft encounter the Mercury magnetosphere six times from 2021 to 2025 during the flyby maneuvers. Each flyby trajectory is unique and includes the magnetospheric regions that were not covered by MESSENGER. Mio/MGF magnetic field data were successfully retrieved during the Mercury flyby-2 in June 2022 and the data were calibrated for the scientific use. The MGF measurements show a short-time intense magnetic field depression in close proximity to the planet at local midnight, which is neither expected from the earlier observations (Mariner-10, MESSENGER) nor from the hybrid plasma simulations of the Mercury magnetosphere. Both time-dependent and time-independent scenarios are possible, including the occurrence of a transient event driven by sudden changes in the solar wind (e.g., pressure puls) or in the magnetosphere (e.g., magnetic reconnection) and the crossing of a localized current layer separating the dipolar field region from the stretched tail-like magnetic field region. While more dedicated analyses (wave analysis, variation analysis), combination with the other data (plasmas and imaging), and numerical simulations for different scenarios would improve the quality of scientific interpretation of the depression event, our study demonstrates the scientific potential of BepiColombo that it will detect various kinds of transient events and localized structures in Mercury’s magnetosphere already during the flyby maneuvers.

With the upcoming Comet Interceptor mission aiming for a flyby of an hitherto unknown long-period comet, we investigate the expected scale size of the plasma environment to be encountered during this mission. As the target comet is not known, and may not be known before the launch of Comet Interceptor in 2029, we do not know the expected outgassing rate from the nucleus. Therefore, we have no knowledge of the expected scale size of the plasma environment, which can vary by orders of magnitude. Taking the bow shock size as a characteristic size of the plasma environment, we are interested in knowing how this grows with increasing outgassing rate. Previous cometary flyby missions have generated a small statistical dataset of outgassing rates vs. bow shock distances, while computer simulations of the solar wind interaction with various comets have yielded additional datapoints of this. We combine the measured values with a large fraction of these simulations to build up a dataset that spans over four orders of magnitude in both outgassing rate and bow shock distance. The bow shock distances are normalized to the solar wind conditions (400 km/s, 5 cm-3) and ionisation rate (7e-7 s-1) at 1 AU, and also to a flow velocity of 1 km/s of the outgassing neutrals. We then compare this dataset with the gas-dynamic model of Biermann et al., (1967) which was later expanded by Koenders et al., (2013) and find a good model-data agreement. Furthermore, assuming that the bow shock takes the shape of a conic section (as has been found empirically to be the case for most planetary bow shocks) we provide an outgassing rate-dependent bow shock model. This might be useful when planning the operation time-line of Comet Interceptor, or for any other future cometary flyby mission.

Auch nach dem Scheitern der Aufnahme der Kinderrechte ins Grundgesetz bleibt die UN-Kinderrechtskonvention geltendes einfaches Bundesrecht. Bund und Länder haben zwar die Konvention weitgehend in ihren Gesetzen umgesetzt; doch in der Praxis weist die Anwendung der Konvention zahlreiche Defizite auf. Das zeigt sich z.B. bei den Maßnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie, im Schulwesen und in der Kinder- und Jugendhilfe.

The influence of the tropical Atlantic on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using sensitivity experiments with the SINTEX-F general circulation model with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) distributions based on observations for the period 1982–2018. In the control experiment (CTRL) observed SSTs are prescribed over the global oceans; in the sensitivity experiment observed SSTs are prescribed in the tropical Atlantic only, while in other regions the climatological annual cycle is prescribed. A composite analysis of the model output suggests that cold SST events in the northern tropical Atlantic during boreal spring are associated with near-surface wind changes over the equatorial and subtropical Pacific that are conducive to the development of El Niño, consistent with previous studies. The amplitude of these changes, however, is at most 20% of those observed during typical El Niño events. Likewise, warm events in the equatorial Atlantic produce only about 10% of the wind changes seen in the western equatorial Pacific during the developing phase of typical La Niña events. Similar results are obtained from a partial regression analysis performed on an ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations from phase 6 of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) although the equatorial Atlantic influence is stronger in AMIP. Further analysis of the AMIP models indicates that model biases do not have a major impact on the Atlantic-to-Pacific influence. Overall, the results suggest that the tropical Atlantic has a rather weak influence on ENSO development and mostly acts to modulate ongoing events rather than initiate them.

Out of the two Venus flybys that BepiColombo uses as a gravity assist manoeuvre to finally arrive at Mercury, the first took place on 15 October 2020. After passing the bow shock, the spacecraft travelled along the induced magnetotail, crossing it mainly in the YVSO direction. In this paper, the BepiColombo Mercury Planetary Orbiter Magnetometer (MPO-MAG) data are discussed, with support from three other plasma instruments: the Planetary Ion Camera (SERENA-PICAM) of the SERENA suite, the Mercury Electron Analyser (MEA), and the BepiColombo Radiation Monitor (BERM). Behind the bow shock crossing, the magnetic field showed a draping pattern consistent with field lines connected to the interplanetary magnetic field wrapping around the planet. This flyby showed a highly active magnetotail, with e.g. strong flapping motions at a period of ∼7 min. This activity was driven by solar wind conditions. Just before this flyby, Venus's induced magnetosphere was impacted by a stealth coronal mass ejection, of which the trailing side was still interacting with it during the flyby. This flyby is a unique opportunity to study the full length and structure of the induced magnetotail of Venus, indicating that the tail was most likely still present at about 48 Venus radii.

The European Space Agency Rosetta mission escorted comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko for two years, during which it acquired an extensive dataset, revealing unprecedented detail about the neutral and plasma environment of the coma. The measurements were made over a large range of heliocentric distances, and therefore of outgassing activities, as Rosetta witnessed 67P evolve from a low-activity icy body at 3.8 AU to a dynamic object with large-scale plasma structures and rich ion and neutral chemistry near perihelion at 1.2 AU. One such plasma structure is the diamagnetic cavity, a region of negligible magnetic field surrounding the comet nucleus. It is formed through the interaction of the unmagnetized outwardly expanding cometary plasma with the incoming solar wind. This region was encountered many times by Rosetta between April 2015 and February 2016, as the comet moved towards and away from perihelion. In this study, we focus on the changing role of chemistry during the escort phase, particularly on trends in the detection of high proton affinity species near perihelion and within the diamagnetic cavity. NH4+ is produced through the protonation of NH3 which has the highest proton affinity of the neutral species and is therefore the terminal ion. The ratio of this species to the major ion species H3O+ can then be an indicator of the importance of ion-neutral chemistry as an ion loss process compared to transport. We use data from the high resolution mode of the ROSINA (Rosetta Orbital Spectrometer for Ion-Neutral Analysis)/DFMS (Double Focussing Mass Spectrometer) instrument, which allows certain ions of the same integer mass per charge ratio to be separated from one another, most importantly H2O+ and NH4+. This data is then analysed alongside a range of plasma properties from the RPC (Rosetta Plasma Consortium) suite of instruments, to determine features of the plasma within and outside of the diamagnetic cavity that may systematically impact the ion species detected in the mass spectrometer, for example through the spacecraft potential. For the same period, ion ROSINA/DFMS ion data are analysed together with simultaneous observations of the cometary plasma properties by RPC instruments, in order to identify systematic plasma features or biases which may impact the ion composition detected by ROSINA. In addition, the ion composition measurements are compared to ionospheric simulations. We evaluate the relative significance of ion-neutral chemistry and transport such that their impacts on the ion composition in different interaction regions are identified.

We present a statistical survey of large-amplitude, asymmetric plasma and magnetic field enhancements detected outside the diamagnetic cavity at comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko from December 2014 to June 2016. Based on the concurrent observations of plasma and magnetic field enhancements, we interpret them to be magnetosonic waves. The aim is to provide a general overview of these waves' properties over the mission duration. As the first mission of its kind, the ESA Rosetta mission was able to study the plasma properties of the inner coma for a prolonged time and during different stages of activity. This enables us to study the temporal evolution of these waves and their characteristics. In total, we identified ∼ 70 000 steepened waves in the magnetic field data by means of machine learning. We observe that the occurrence of these steepened waves is linked to the activity of the comet, where steepened waves are primarily observed at high outgassing rates. No clear indications of a relationship between the occurrence rate and solar wind conditions were found. The waves are found to propagate predominantly perpendicular to the background magnetic field, which indicates their compressional nature. Characteristics like amplitude, skewness, and width of the waves were extracted by fitting a skew normal distribution to the magnetic field magnitude of individual steepened waves. With increasing mass loading, the average amplitude of the waves decreases, while the skewness increases. Using a modified 1D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, we investigated if the waves can be described by the combination of nonlinear and dissipative effects. By combining the model with observations of amplitude, width and skewness, we obtain an estimate of the effective plasma diffusivity in the comet–solar wind interaction region and compare it with suitable reference values as a consistency check. At 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, these steepened waves are of particular importance as they dominate the innermost interaction region for intermediate to high activity.

Atlantic Niño, a dominant mode of climate variability in the equatorial Atlantic on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, is known to remotely force a La Niña-like response in the tropical Pacific, potentially affecting climate predictions. Using both observations and large-ensemble simulations, this work explores the underlying physical mechanism linking the Atlantic variability to the Pacific. Results persuasively show that the eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave from the Atlantic, through the Indian Ocean, to the Pacific is the primary pathway for the Atlantic-to-Pacific teleconnection. Furthermore, the orography and land friction effects over the Maritime Continent (MC) play an important role in this teleconnection. On one hand, the interaction between MC orography and the Kelvin wave induces orographic moisture convergence, contributing to the generation of a local Walker Cell over the MC-Western Pacific area. On the other hand, land friction over the MC causes Kelvin wave energy to dissipate, affecting the strength of the Bjerknes feedback, and thus the development of the La Niña-like response in the Pacific. The present study indicates that improving the representation of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions over the MC may be critical to realistically simulating Atlantic Niño’s impact on El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This may have important implications for improving climate predictions.

Moisture transport from the Atlantic to Pacific is important for basin-scale freshwater budget and the formation of meridional ocean circulation. Although the climatological tropical Atlantic-to-Pacific moisture transport (TAPMORT) has been well investigated, few studies have focused on its variability. Here we investigate the interannual variability of TAPMORT based on the atmospheric reanalysis data sets. The TAPMORT interannual variability is dominated by the variations of trans-basin winds across Central America, and peaks in late boreal summer and late boreal winter. 1) In late summer, a developing El Niño and a mature Atlantic Niña set up an interbasin sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient that strengthens the low-level jet across Central America and therefore TAPMORT (with weakened TAPMORT for opposite signed events). This process typically occurs from July to September, with a peak in August. 2) In late winter, the strengthened southern North American center of the Pacific-North American-like pattern intensifies the TAPMORT variations. Although atmospheric interannual variability dominates these variations, extreme El Niño events are also important for the teleconnections. This process shows a single peak in February, in contrast to the persistent peak in late summer. We further demonstrate that the persistent TAPMORT variability in late summer dominates the moisture divergence over the northwestern tropical Atlantic and modulates freshwater flux there. Thus, our study improves the understanding of how TAPMORT interannual variability and the related interbasin SST gradient regulate the northwestern tropical Atlantic freshwater budget and the related salinity variability.

Statistical prediction of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is performed using linear inverse models (LIMs) that are constructed from both observations and general circulation model (GCM) output of SST. The goals are to establish a baseline for tropical SST predictions, to examine the extent to which the skill of a GCM-derived LIM is indicative of that GCM’s skill in forecast mode, and to examine the linkages between mean state bias and prediction skill. The observation-derived LIM is more skillful than a simple persistence forecasts in most regions. Its skill also compares well with some GCM forecasts except in the equatorial Pacific, where the GCMs are superior. The observation-derived LIM is matched or even outperformed by the GCM-derived LIMs, which may be related to the longer data record available for GCMs. The GCM-derived LIMs provide a fairly good measure for the skill achieved by their parent GCMs in forecast mode. In some cases, the skill of the LIM is actually superior to that of its parent GCM, indicating that the GCM predictions may suffer from initialization problems. A weak-to-moderate relation exists between model mean state error and prediction skill in some regions. An example is the eastern equatorial Atlantic, where an erroneously deep thermocline reduces SST variability, which in turn affects prediction skill. Another example is the equatorial Pacific, where skill appears to be linked to cold SST biases in the western tropical Pacific, which may reduce the strength of air–sea coupling.

The equatorial Atlantic is subject to interannual variability that is centered in the eastern cold tongue region and is known as the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM). Previous studies have indicated that AZM variability has declined over the recent decades and this tendency is projected to continue based on climate change simulations. The period 2000 to mid-2019 was arguably most conspicuous in this regard, as it did not contain any major AZM event. In late 2019, however, the strongest event in more than 40 years developed. This was followed, in 2021, by an equally warm event. In the present work we examine the mechanisms behind these recent events. We show that while the accompanying wind stress forcing was strong, it cannot account for the exceptional strength of the two events. Analysis suggests that Ekman pumping north of the equator contributed to the strength of the events by generating downwelling Rossby waves that were reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves at the equator. In addition, an examination of observed sea-surface height and ocean temperature from reanalysis and PIRATA buoys suggests that there was a steady buildup of heat in the eastern equatorial region (20W-10E, 10S-5N) since about 2015. This excessive heat content was discharged during the 2019 and 2021 events and may have contributed to their exceptional strength. Our results highlight the need for a close monitoring of oceanic conditions in the region. This will not only have implications for seasonal prediction but also for the long-term development of AZM variability.

The internal magnetic field of Mercury is best described by a northward offset dipole with almost zero obliquity. Its offset, weakness, axisymmetry and lack of secular variation still poses a challenge to dynamo theory. After NASA’s Mariner 10 flybys in the 1970’s and MESSENGER’s orbital mission in 2011-2015, BepiColombo performed a flyby at Mercury in October 2021. For the first time, magnetic field measurements are obtained from the southern hemisphere by the fluxgate magnetometer MPO-MAG. We will present an overview of the flyby data and compare the new in-situ data to magnetospheric models obtained from the previous missions to the innermost terrestrial planet. Does the flyby data reveal any secular variation? Has the dipole offset changed? These are some of the questions we will discuss with this unprecedented magnetometer data. We will close with a discussion on what is to be expected from the orbital phase of BepiColombo.

Average flow patterns of ions around comet 67P detected by the RPC-ICA instrument onboard Rosetta are presented both as a time series and as a spatial distribution of the average flow in the plane perpendicular to the comet – Sun direction (Y–Z plane in the coordinate systems used). Cometary ions in the energy range up to 60 eV flow radially away from the nucleus in the Y–Z plane, irrespective of the direction of the magnetic field, throughout the mission. These ions may however be strongly affected by the spacecraft potential, the uncertainty due to this is briefly discussed. Inside the solar wind ion cavity and in the periods just before and after, the cometary pick up ions moving antisunward are deflected against the inferred solar wind electric field direction. This is opposite to what is observed for lower levels of mass-loading. These pick up ions are behaving in a similar way to the solar wind ions and are deflected due to mass-loading. A spatial asymmetry can be seen in the observations of deflected pick up ions, with motion against the electric field primarily within a radius of 200 km of the nucleus and also in the negative electric field hemisphere. Cometary ions observed by RPC-ICA typically move in the antisunward direction throughout the mission. These are average patterns, full-resolution data show very much variability.

General circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined with respect to their ability to simulate the mean state and variability of the tropical Atlantic and its linkage to the tropical Pacific. While, on average, mean state biases have improved little, relative to the previous intercomparison (CMIP5), there are now a few models with very small biases. In particular the equatorial Atlantic warm SST and westerly wind biases are mostly eliminated in these models. Furthermore, interannual variability in the equatorial and subtropical Atlantic is quite realistic in a number of CMIP6 models, which suggests that they should be useful tools for understanding and predicting variability patterns. The evolution of equatorial Atlantic biases follows the same pattern as in previous model generations, with westerly wind biases during boreal spring preceding warm sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the east during boreal summer. A substantial portion of the westerly wind bias exists already in atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SST, suggesting an atmospheric origin. While variability is relatively realistic in many models, SSTs seem less responsive to wind forcing than observed, both on the equator and in the subtropics, possibly due to an excessively deep mixed layer originating in the oceanic component. Thus models with realistic SST amplitude tend to have excessive wind amplitude. The models with the smallest mean state biases all have relatively high resolution but there are also a few low-resolution models that perform similarly well, indicating that resolution is not the only way toward reducing tropical Atlantic biases. The results also show a relatively weak link between mean state biases and the quality of the simulated variability. The linkage to the tropical Pacific shows a wide range of behaviors across models, indicating the need for further model improvement.

Time series analysis is a technique widely employed in space science. In unpredictable environments like space, scientific analysis relies on large data sets to enable interpretation of observations. Artificial signal interferences caused by the spacecraft itself further impede this process. The most time consuming part of these studies is the efficient identification of recurrent pattern in observations, both of artificial and natural origin, often forcing researchers to limit their analysis to a reduced set of observations. While pattern recognition techniques for time series are well known, their application is discussed and evaluated primarily on purpose built or heavily preprocessed data sets. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of state of the art pattern recognition techniques in terms of computational efficiency and validity on a real-life testcase. For this purpose the most suitable techniques for different types of pattern are discussed and subsequently evaluated on various hardware in comparison to manual identification. Using magnetic field observations of the ESA Rosetta mission as a representative example, both disturbances and natural patterns are identified. Compared to manual selection a speed-up of a factor up to 100 is achieved, with values for recall and precision above 80%. Moreover, the detection process is fully automated and reproducible. Using the presented method it was possible to detect and correct artificial interference. Finally, the feasibility of onboard deployment is briefly discussed.

This letter exploits the radial alignment between the Parker Solar Probe and BepiColombo in late 2022 February, when both spacecraft were within Mercury’s orbit. This allows the study of the turbulent evolution, namely, the change in spectral and intermittency properties, of the same plasma parcel during its expansion from 0.11 to 0.33 au, a still unexplored region. The observational analysis of the solar wind turbulent features at the two different evolution stages is complemented by a theoretical description based on the turbulence transport model equations for nearly incompressible magnetohydrodynamics. The results provide strong evidence that the solar wind turbulence already undergoes significant evolution at distances less than 0.3 au from the Sun, which can be satisfactorily explained as due to evolving slab fluctuations. This work represents a step forward in understanding the processes that control the transition from weak to strong turbulence in the solar wind and in properly modeling the heliosphere.

The magnetometer instrument MPO-MAG on-board the Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO) of the BepiColombo mission en-route to Mercury is introduced, with its instrument design, its calibration and scientific targets. The instrument is comprised of two tri-axial fluxgate magnetometers mounted on a 2.9 m boom and are 0.8 m apart. They monitor the magnetic field with up to 128 Hz in a $\pm 2048$ ± 2048 nT range. The MPO will be injected into an initial $480 \times 1500$ 480 × 1500 km polar orbit (2.3 h orbital period). At Mercury, we will map the planetary magnetic field and determine the dynamo generated field and constrain the secular variation. In this paper, we also discuss the effect of the instrument calibration on the ability to improve the knowledge on the internal field. Furthermore, the study of induced magnetic fields and field-aligned currents will help to constrain the interior structure in concert with other geophysical instruments. The orbit is also well-suited to study dynamical phenomena at the Hermean magnetopause and magnetospheric cusps. Together with its sister instrument Mio-MGF on-board the second satellite of the BepiColombo mission, the magnetometers at Mercury will study the reaction of the highly dynamic magnetosphere to changes in the solar wind. In the extreme case, the solar wind might even collapse the entire dayside magnetosphere. During cruise, MPO-MAG will contribute to studies of solar wind turbulence and transient phenomena.

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Atlantic Niño over the past 113 years is investigated by comparing multi-year and single-year ENSO events. Multi-year ENSO events sustain an anomalous zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial western to central Pacific even during boreal spring and summer. This SST gradient is coupled with an anomalous Walker circulation and atmospheric deep convection through the Bjerknes feedback. During multi-year La Niñas, for example, a strengthened Pacific Walker circulation extends into the tropical Atlantic in boreal spring, a season when both the Pacific and Atlantic intertropical convergence zones become more symmetric about the equator. As a result, surface westerly wind anomalies appear over the equatorial Atlantic, triggering an Atlantic Niño. By contrast, such a teleconnection is not found in the spring following the peak of single-year ENSO events. A Pacific pacemaker model experiment reproduces the observed atmospheric response and its impact on the Atlantic Niño, further supporting the importance of prolonged ENSO forcing. The contrasting influence of multi-year and single-year events explains the fragile relationship between ENSO and the Atlantic Niño. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the leading EOF mode (EOF-1) for the spring tropical western to central Pacific SST anomalies captures the characteristics of multi-year ENSO events. EOF-1 is highly correlated with the summer Atlantic Niño over the past 113 years while the Niño-3 SST is not. These correlations indicate that ocean–atmosphere coupling in the equatorial western to central Pacific plays a major role in shaping ENSO teleconnections in boreal spring.

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on interannual surface wind variability in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific is estimated using sensitivity experiments with the SINTEX-F GCM and the ensemble spread in a nine-member control simulation. Two additional estimates are derived for both SINTEX-F and the ERA-Interim reanalysis using regression analysis and singular value decomposition. All methods yield quite consistent estimates of the fraction of surface wind variability that is determined by SST and therefore potentially predictable. In the equatorial Atlantic, analysis suggests that for the period 1982–2014 approximately 2/3 of surface zonal wind variability in boreal spring and early summer is potentially predictable, while 1/3 is due to noise. Of the predictable component, up to about 35% may be driven from outside the tropical Atlantic, suggesting an important role for remote forcing and a diminished one for local feedbacks. In the northern tropical Atlantic, only 30% of boreal winter variability is predictable, most of which is forced from the Pacific. This suggests a minor role for local coupled air–sea feedbacks. For the equatorial Pacific, the results suggest high predictability throughout the year, most of which is due to local SST, with the tropical Atlantic only playing a minor role in boreal summer. In the tropical Atlantic, atmospheric internal variability is strongly dependent on the presence of deep convection, which, in turn, is related to mean SST. A similar, but weaker, state dependence of internal variability is evident in the tropical Pacific.

Magnetometers are key instruments on board spacecraft that probe the plasma environments of planets and other solar system bodies. The linear conversion of raw magnetometer outputs to fully calibrated magnetic field measurements requires the accurate knowledge of 12 calibration parameters: six angles, three gain factors, and three offset values. The in-flight determination of 8 of those 12 parameters is enormously supported if the spacecraft is spin-stabilized, as an incorrect choice of those parameters will lead to systematic spin harmonic disturbances in the calibrated data. We show that published equations and algorithms for the determination of the eight spin-related parameters are far from optimal, as they do not take into account the physical behavior of science-grade magnetometers and the influence of a varying spacecraft attitude on the in-flight calibration process. Here, we address these issues. Based on decade-long developments and experience in calibration activities at the Braunschweig University of Technology, we introduce advanced calibration equations, parameters, and algorithms. With their help, it is possible to decouple different effects on the calibration parameters, originating from the spacecraft or the magnetometer itself. A key point of the algorithms is the bulk determination of parameters and associated uncertainties. The lowest uncertainties are expected under parameter-specific conditions. By application to THEMIS-C (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) magnetometer measurements, we show where these conditions are fulfilled along a highly elliptical orbit around Earth.

A strong warm event occurred in the southeastern tropical Atlantic Ocean off Angola and Namibia in January and February 2016 with sea surface temperature anomalies reaching 3 °C. In contrast to classical Benguela Nino events, the analysis of various direct observations indicates that the warming was not predominantly forced by an equatorial Kelvin wave exciting a coastally trapped wave but instead resulted from a combination of local processes that are related to (1) a weakening of the alongshore, i.e. mainly southerly, winds and (2) enhanced freshwater input through local precipitation and river discharge. Consistent with the weakened winds, we find a reduction in latent heat loss from the ocean and a poleward surface current anomaly. The surface freshening, which is detected in satellite observations of sea surface salinity, caused a very shallow mixed layer and enhanced upper ocean stratification. This is supported by the analysis of the velocity structure of the Angola Current at 11°S, which shows that at the time of the event subsurface velocities were directed northward while surface velocities were directed southward. The shallow layer of warm and fresh surface water was thus advected poleward by the surface current. In addition, a reduction of the local upwelling and the formation of a barrier layer that inhibits the entrainment of cool subsurface waters into the surface mixed layer might have contributed to the warm surface anomaly. The sudden termination of the warm event was accompanied by a re-intensification of southerly winds in March.

Out of the two Venus flybys that BepiColombo uses as a gravity assist manoeuvre to finally arrive at Mercury, the first took place on 15 October 2020. After passing the bow shock, the spacecraft travelled along the induced magnetotail, crossing it mainly in the YVSO-direction. In this paper, the BepiColombo Mercury Planetary Orbiter Magnetometer (MPO-MAG) data are discussed, with support from three other plasma instruments: the Planetary Ion Camera (PICAM), the Mercury Electron Analyser (MEA) and the radiation monitor (BERM). Behind the bow shock crossing, the magnetic field showed a draping pattern consistent with field lines connected to the interplanetary magnetic field wrapping around the planet. This flyby showed a highly active magnetotail, with, e.g., strong flapping motions at a period of ~7 min. This activity was driven by solar wind conditions. Just before this flyby, Venus's induced magnetosphere was impacted by a stealth coronal mass ejection, of which the trailing side was still interacting with it during the flyby. This flyby is a unique opportunity to study the full length and structure of the induced magnetotail of Venus, indicating that the tail was most likely still present at about 48 Venus radii.