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This study utilised longitudinal data from Black History Month events in London from 2021 to 2023. Novel findings revealed that increased inflation and Bank Rates, related to the cost-of-living crisis, were associated with greater discrimination and deteriorations in both general and mental health for Black individuals. Moreover, it was found that during the cost-of-living crisis period, i.e. 2022–2023, discrimination was more adversely related to general and mental health deterioration compared to the period before the cost-of-living crisis, i.e. 2021. In addition, women, non-native individuals, non-heterosexual individuals, the unemployed, economically inactive individuals, those with lower educational attainment, and older individuals experienced higher levels of discrimination and reduced general and mental health compared to reference groups. The findings of the study contribute to the literature by demonstrating the intertwined associations of macroeconomic deteriorations and discrimination with the health of the Black community, and its subgroup differences, providing a basis for targeted policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Contradictory to conventional economic theory, which foresees any increase in the size of government as inflationary, this article provides evidence that the reaction of price levels to changes in the size of government is nonlinear. The price levels do not necessarily increase in response to a rise in the size of the government but only up to a certain threshold or optimal level. Accordingly, this paper utilizes the dynamic panel threshold model to examine the threshold effects of government size (measured as government final consumption expenditure as a proportion of GDP) on inflation using a sample of 10 selected MENA countries from 1980 to 2019. The findings of this study stand out in several ways. First, the results support the nonlinear relationship between government size and inflation in the study area. Second, the government size's estimated threshold level is equivalent to 12.46%. Third, government size negatively impacts inflation in the regime of small governments up to the threshold level. The impact turns positive once the government size goes beyond the threshold level in a regime of large size of government. These findings have ramifications for the conduct of fiscal policy. Policymakers in the MENA region can increase the size of government till it reaches the threshold level without exerting any upward pressure on price levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting financial stability is one of the main priorities for the governments of countries seeking to achieve sustainable economic growth. The article aims to assess and model the impact of macroeconomic factors on the financial stability of the Russian Federation in the period 2010-2030 using ADF, OLS, VAR, ARCH, VECM and other techniques. In addition, the linear causal relationship between a group of 6 macroeconomic indicators and the financial stability of the Russian Federation was studied. The results of this research show that Russia's financial stability depends mainly on exports of crude oil and natural gas, price stability, volume of government debt, deficits and surpluses of the state's budget, exchange rate stabilization of national currency, and effectiveness of the banking system. Additionally, events taking place in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the African continent may negatively affect Russia's financial security if it fails to take the necessary preventive measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Finance & Financial Law / Finanse i Prawo Finansowe is the property of Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract Contradictory to conventional economic theory, which foresees any increase in the size of government as inflationary, this article provides evidence that the reaction of price levels to changes in the size of government is nonlinear. The price levels do not necessarily increase in response to a rise in the size of the government but only up to a certain threshold or optimal level. Accordingly, this paper utilizes the dynamic panel threshold model to examine the threshold effects of government size (measured as government final consumption expenditure as a proportion of GDP) on inflation using a sample of 10 selected MENA countries from 1980 to 2019. The findings of this study stand out in several ways. First, the results support the nonlinear relationship between government size and inflation in the study area. Second, the government size’s estimated threshold level is equivalent to 12.46%. Third, government size negatively impacts inflation in the regime of small governments up to the threshold level. The impact turns positive once the government size goes beyond the threshold level in a regime of large size of government. These findings have ramifications for the conduct of fiscal policy. Policymakers in the MENA region can increase the size of government till it reaches the threshold level without exerting any upward pressure on price levels.

Investors should consider the Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) as a key indicator before making investment decisions, as it reflects the performance of industries and the broader economic growth. In Indonesia, the ICI exhibits fluctuating movements, making accurate forecasting essential for understanding the country's economic conditions, which are closely tied to capital flows, growth, and tax revenues. This study aims to forecast the ICI using the SARIMAX-GARCH model, incorporating macroeconomic factors such as the inflation rate and exchange rate. The findings reveal that both variables significantly impact the ICI, with the model achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.952% for training data and 5.233% for test data. The model's performance is supported by an R² value of 0.9782 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0003. This research not only improves the accuracy of ICI forecasts but also supports Indonesia's 8th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for decent work and economic growth. Doi: 10.28991/HIJ-2024-05-03-014 Full Text: PDF

The purpose of the article. The study aimed to assess the impact of an inflation level on purchasing decisions of consumers in selected voivodeships (mazowieckie, lubelskie, podkarpackie, małopolskie). The following hypotheses were adopted: H1: Poles' purchasing decisions in a period of rising inflation depend on the voivodeship in which they live. H1a: Residents of voivodeships with a lower average gross salary (podkarpackie and lubelskie) pay more attention to product features, discounts and places where they shop than residents of voivodeships with a high average gross salary (mazowieckie and małopolskie). H2: Poles' purchasing decisions in a period of rising inflation depend on gender. H2a: Women pay more attention to product features, discounts and places where they shop than men. Methodology. The study employed the diagnostic survey method using an online survey. The voivodeships selected for the study were categorized based on the indicators of an average monthly gross salary in relation to the national average. For mazowieckie and małopolskie voivodeships these values were above 100%, while for podkarpackie and lubelskie voivodeships they ranged from 84–88%. In addition, statistical analyzes were performed to observe relationships such as gender and voivodeship: the chi-square test with an in-depth analysis of standardized categorized residuals, Cramer's V coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Results of the research. The article showed that the relationship between inflation and purchasing behavior of Polish people is an important topic that helps understand how consumers react to rising prices and what strategies they choose when shopping during inflation. Relationship between consumer behavior and the voivodeship was confirmed only in two cases related to shopping habits. This leads to the rejection of H1 and H1a hypotheses. The amount of the average monthly gross salary in relation to the national average (podkarpackie, lubelskie) is not a factor that makes Polish people more inclined to pay attention to product features, discounts and places of purchase, compared to residents of voivodeships with a higher average monthly gross salary (mazowieckie and małopolskie). H2 and H2a hypotheses were confirmed with greater accuracy. It has been noticed that purchasing decisions of Polish people depend on gender, and women pay attention to product features such as a price, promotions, and places where they shop more often than men.

The non-oil sectors play a crucial role in driving in­dustrial transformation and generating foreign exchange for a nation. Therefore, the performance of this sector is influenced by the implementation of policies and programs, as well as the availability of credit facilities from deposit money banks (DMBs). This study examines the relationship between DMBs' credit and non-oil exports in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022. The data is analysed using the bounds test co-integration procedure of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results indicate that there is a significant (Prob. < 0.05) positive relationship be­tween DMBs' credit and exchange rates. Furthermore, DMBs' lending rate and inflation rate demonstrate a significant nega­tive relationship, while gross fixed capital formation shows an inverse relationship with non-oil exports in Nigeria. The cau­sality test reveals no causality between bank credit to non-oil sectors, exchange rate, and the volume of non-oil exports in Ni­geria. However, there is a unidirectional causality between gross fixed capital formation, the lending rate of banks, the in­flation rate, and non-oil exports in Nigeria. Based on these find­ings, it is recommended that both the government and the monetary authorities make concerted efforts to stabilise the macroeconomic variables and promote growth-oriented programs meant to boost the aim of enhancing the production of locally produced goods in the non-oil sectors of Nigeria. Additionally, the Central Bank of Nigeria should consider re­ducing the bank rate, as this would directly impact other rates within the country.

Although the coronavirus pandemic has now faded into the background, the global crisis caused by COVID-19 has had the most devastating impacts worldwide. Given the potential relapse of such unexpected and uncertain events, it is vital to specify the patterns thereof and develop proactive measures for the countries to acquire an advanced readiness to deal with the related incidents. The most infected countries faced an increase in business bankruptcies, unemployment and inflation rates, low production volumes, and a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To withstand such socioeconomic consequences, the countries had to employ a number of measures, with innovation development acceleration being one. This paper aims to assess the dependency of an increase in GDP and a decrease in inflation and unemployment rates on the country-level growth of innovation development according to such Global Innovation Index (GII) pillars as institutions, human capital and research, infrastructure, market sophistication, business sophistication, knowledge and technology outputs, and creative outputs. The conducted research analysis covered the period from 2019 to 2022 based on the data for the GII pillar development level and economic performance indicators for 20 countries from five socioeconomic models. Descriptive and comparative statistics as well as correlation and regression analysis were used to prove the innovation development to be a key driver in increasing GDP and reducing inflation. To increase the GDP value, special attention should be paid to such GII pillars as institutions and human capital and research, while infrastructure and human capital and research are the pillars to reduce the inflation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The stability of money demand is central to South Africa’s monetary policy. Furthermore, it has implications on the work of the SARB which is the monetary authority of South Africa. Since year 2000, the SARB has been hawkish in its behaviour, which raises questions about stability of money demand. This is because for an inflation targeting economy that provides information to the public to stabilize the market, its money demand should be stable, thereby, making the behaviour of the central bank more stable. However, the behaviour of the SARB does not seem to portray that the demand for money in South Africa is stable. Hence, this study assesses the demand for money in order to comprehend its behaviour. The study uses CUSUM test to test for the stability of money demand. And it is found that before year 2015, money demand was stable. Hence, the money demand in South Africa is becoming unstable overtime. The sample data used in the study is from 2003 to 2023. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the increasing interdependence of countries due to the development of international trade, a relevant question arises as to whether it is necessary to conduct independent monetary policies for each country or whether it is advisable to coordinate these policies. This question becomes a key in the debate on optimal monetary policy strategies in open economies. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of asymmetric aggregate demand shocks on the appropriateness of monetary policy coordination in a simple stochastic model of two interacting countries. The analysis of equilibrium states of the monetary authorities' interaction strategies under study was carried out analytically by minimizing the loss function and solving one-period static optimization problems. The equilibrium states of macroeconomics of interacting countries under coordination of monetary policy and in cases of lack of coordination (Nash and Stackelberg equilibrium) in the presence of asymmetric, serially uncorrelated demand shocks have been analyzed. It is proven that the response of inflation to asymmetric demand shocks is smaller in the case of coordinated policy than in the case of non-cooperative policy. The loss function analysis shows that the compensation of demand shocks is found to be more costly in Nash equilibrium than in the case of monetary authority coordination policy. The analysis of the monetary authorities' interaction strategies showed that the real exchange rate plays an important role in balancing supply and demand in the two economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the one hand, the insurance industry is considered one of the development indices and one of the most important economic entities, and on the other hand, it supports the activities of other entities. Therefore, the current research aimed to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance of the insurance industry. The statistical population is the research of managers and employees of insurance companies. Based on Morgan’s table, 415 people were selected as a sample. In this study, independent variables include fluctuations in the inflation rate, exchange rate, and liquidity while the dependent variable is insurance industry performance. The tool of the present research is a researcher-made questionnaire, whose validity and reliability were examined. Testing the hypotheses of the research was done with structural equations using Amos software. Data from 2015 to 2018 was considered for macroeconomic variables. Path analysis results showed that the significance values show higher than 1.96, so the significance of the path between two variables can be confirmed and the existence of this relationship can be confirmed. All research hypotheses are accepted. Finally, macroeconomic factors have an effect of 0.79 on a company’s performance. As an economic entity, the insurance industry has an important role in the economy of countries, and the higher the share of the insurance industry in the gross domestic product (GDP) and its penetration rate, the more developed the economy of that country will be. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economic Administrative & Legal Sciences is the property of Arab Journal of Sciences & Research Publishing (AJSRP) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Exchange rate market play an important role as a measure to deal with monetary and currency crises and control its effects on the economy. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between exchange market pressure, inflation rate, oil price and economic uncertainty in Iran using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model during the period of the first quarter of 1991 to the third quarter of 2021. Based on the results of the research, there is a dynamic conditional correlation between the variables, and volatilities of the inflation rate, oil price and economic uncertainty index lead to volatilities of the exchange market pressure. Also, the spillover effect of inflation rate, oil price and economic uncertainty index on exchange market pressure is positive and significant, which shows the important influence of these variables on exchange market pressure. Therefore, according to the correlation structure between the exchange market pressure and the macroeconomic variables, it is possible to control the effects of macroeconomic variables on the currency market by implementing appropriate policies in line with economic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid economic developments and successive crises prompted many researchers to search for ways to confront the obstacles facing investment in the financial markets, with the aim of mitigating the impact of economic variables on investment in them. Hence, this study deals with the impact of inflation on financial markets, by studying the impact of inflation on returns Stocks Because stocks are a good hedge against inflation risks, they also provide an important indicator to contribute to making decisions about the optimal diversification of assets. According to results of the analysis, the research concluded that the Inflation rate (M-OM) significant with (RDWX) (0.05) which is equal the significance level of (0.05), since that the correlation coefficient (r) was positive and weak with RDWX (0.212), according to this result we can say that there is a positive and weak relation between Inflation rate (M-O-M) and Stock market return at DSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This article aims to investigate the influence of unconventional monetary policy tools (UMPTs) employed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the inflation rate and GDP growth rate within the euro area, motivated by the principles of the Taylor rule. Research methodology – Elastic net regression with ARIMA residuals was used to analyse the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators, measured by adjusted R-squared. Six samples were constructed, and hypothesis testing was performed using moving block bootstrapping. Residual diagnostics were used for model validation. Findings – The study revealed significant impacts of UMPTs, particularly in combination with interest rates, on inflation rates. However, adjusted R-square values for GDP growth rate were less pronounced, indicating a more complex relationship. Research contributes to understanding the dynamics of monetary policy transmission mechanisms, informing policy institutions, and guiding future research directions. Research limitations – Limitations include the focus on the euro area and the absence of analysis in other major economies. Future research should address these limitations and incorporate additional variables for a more comprehensive analysis. Practical implications – The findings provide insight for policymakers regarding the efficacy of UMPTs in influencing inflation rates, aiding in informed decision-making in monetary policy formulation and implementation. Originality/Value – This study contributes novelty by comprehensively analysing the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators within the euro area, providing valuable insight into monetary policy institutions, and guiding future research directions.

This study was conducted to understand the fluctuation of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in Romania in the post-pandemic years. Also, the study aims to highlight the future of these two variables based on the forecasted values, but also on the possible future state of the economical and geopolitical framework. For this purpose, the correlation between the inflation and unemployment rate in the last 4 years in Romania is going to be analyzed using a linear regression model. Based on the output of the model, a series of conclusions is going to be highlighted related to the impact of the inflation rate on the fluctuation of the unemployment rate in the post-pandemic period (2020-2023). The research will indicate that there is still a strong correlation between the two variables and that a high percentage (more than 91%) of the fluctuation of the unemployment rate in Romania in the post-pandemic years is explained by the fluctuation on the inflation rate.

This research has sought to determine how the crude oil price volatility (COPV) relates to economic growth (EG) using the case of the OECD countries between 2000 and 2022. Therefore, this article employs various panel data estimation strategies: random effect regression, fixed effect regression, dynamic panel data estimation, one-step system GMM and dynamic panel data estimation; two-step system GMM. The chosen time domain consists of oil-producing and consuming major countries within the OECD. The key findings of the study suggest that COPV has adverse effects on the growth of OECD economies. This would consequently mean that the knowledge of how volatility in crude oil prices (COPs) could affect very influential economic performance is of paramount importance and might bring out certain vital challenges that could be brought up by oil market volatility. The article ends with a few policy suggestions that may assist in mitigating the adverse impact of exogenous, unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices on the EG of the countries of the OECD.

AbstractThis study examined the effect of public debt on macroeconomic stability among 45 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 2005–2022 using the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The study disaggregated public debt into domestic and foreign borrowing and determined the effect of each on inflation and economic growth. In agreement with recent studies, we found compelling evidence of negative effect of both domestic and foreign borrowing on economic growth and a positive effect on inflation among SSA countries. The empirical results reveal that a unit increase in domestic borrowing reduces economic growth by 0.06 percent and raises inflation by about 0.14 percent, while the same increase in foreign borrowing reduces economic growth by 0.01 percent and increases inflation by 0.05 percent holding other factors constant. These results imply that increase in public debt causes macroeconomic instability, and that domestic borrowing has a relatively larger impact on macroeconomic variables compared to foreign borrowing. The policy implication of the current study is that SSA countries should avoid excessive borrowing by operating a fiscal deficit within individual country threshold limits to contain growth in public debt. The SSA countries should also ensure borrowed funds are channeled into projects that bring revenue and other investment opportunities to amortize the debt stock.

Inflation is one of the main issues in macroeconomics and one of the main concerns of many countries. In recent years, the existence of rapid inflation due to economic sanctions and the lack of injection of oil revenues has weakened the performance of macro variables, including the increase in the unemployment rate and its spillover effects on all the provinces of the country, especially the underdeveloped and poor provinces. Is. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the effective factors in the direction of control, stability of the inflation rate, and chronic reduction of the unemployment rate. Therefore, the current research aims to analyze the spatial effect of inflation on unemployment in the provinces of Iran with a spatial econometric approach during the period of 2006-2021. Before estimating the spatial model, spatial spillover effects for the spatial auto regression model were confirmed using Moran's, Jerry C's, and spatial F tests. Based on the obtained results, the inflation rate and its proximity effects have negative and significant effects on the unemployment rate of the studied provinces. According to other results, it has been observed that the gross domestic product and credits for the acquisition of capital (construction) assets and the logarithm of human capital have a positive and significant effect on reducing the unemployment rate; meanwhile, the wage rate has a negative and significant relationship with the reduction of the unemployment rate in the provinces. It is suggested to move simultaneously in the direction of stabilizing the inflation rate and increasing the employment rate to increase the competitiveness of production for the less developed and poor provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining Iran's economic developments over the past five decades shows that Iran's economy has always had a high inflation rate. Therefore, it is very important to investigate the factors affecting inflation in the country. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables including liquidity, monetary base, oil revenues, budget deficit, economic growth and inflation rate in Iran in the period of 1991-2020. For this purpose, the combination of two approaches of maximum overlap discrete wavelet-Granger causality and wavelet coherence based on the continuous wavelet approach has been used. The advantage of using the wavelet approach is that it allows the analysis of variables in two dimensions of time and frequency. The results of the analysis of both approaches showed that in the short term, oil revenues increase inflation. The results of the long-term research showed that the inflation rate increases the growth of liquidity. Finally, in the long term, oil revenues have been the cause of inflation, and in the short term, the inflation rate has been a factor affecting the growth rate of the budget deficit. Analyzing the phase difference in the time series of economic growth and inflation shows that in the long-term economic growth with oil and inflation are out of phase. In other words, economic growth with oil and inflation does not move in the same direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of GDP, currency exchange rates, and inflation rates, both separately and jointly, on the stock price of the mining companies included in the Jakarta Islamic Index in 2017 to 2022. The panel data analysis used in this study is a study approach, and uses E-Views 12. Estimate findings show that the stock price of the companies included in the Jakarta Islamic Index is significantly influenced by the exchange rate. The price of the index's mining business stocks was significantly affected by the rise in the dollar exchange rate. However, under certain circumstances, the rate of inflation studied is within a stable range, that is, below 10% per year, so the inflation rate is relatively ineffective. Although there is progress in real-sector investment, the limited influence of GDP may be due to the slow rise in investment in capital markets. As a result, the influence of GDP variables on the stock price of mining companies is only small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The circular economy (CE) has acquired significant interest for its potential to contribute to sustainable development (SD). The present study utilizes empirical methodology, specifically panel data analysis, to examine the distinct effects and outcomes of the circular economy and its associated factors within a unified framework. The focus is on the G20 countries from 2008 to 2021. We evaluated the influence of various CE value sources (renewable energy consumption, composting rate, repair services availability, recycling rate) and a factor-analysis-derived measure of the CE on economic, environmental, and social aspects of SD. The objective was to assess the distinct effects and outcomes of CE and its components in a unified framework—the analysis utilized panel data from G20 countries from 2008 to 2021. Our findings show a substantial influence of CE in achieving SD, with positive implications for the economy, environment, and society. However, the impact of each CE value source on the SD dimensions shows variation. While renewable energy consumption (RENEC) and composting rate (CR) lessen environmental impact, recycling rate (RR) shows no significant effect, and repair services availability (RSA) increases the Ecological Footprint (EFP). Notably, RSA is the sole CE component, showing a positive economic impact at the national level. Additionally, RENEC, RSA, and RR contribute to reducing the inflation rate (INFR). Policymakers should undertake detailed impact assessments to develop effective, tailored strategies based on each country's unique goals. The findings of this study have important policy implications, particularly in terms of emphasizing targeted strategies for implementing CE practices to achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The primary objective of this study is to uncover the complex relationship between cryptocurrency prices and significant global events that transpired within the past five years. These events encompass a wide spectrum, including political and global health crises, the public disclosure of multinational enterprises' investments in cryptocurrencies, and the influence of macroeconomic indicators. Beyond the exclusive focus on Bitcoin, this study adopts a more comprehensive approach encompassing various cryptocurrencies. Design/methodology/approach: This study examines the effects of the disclosure of cryptocurrency adoption plans by major corporations, the Russian-Ukraine war, Covid-19, Inflation rate, and Economic policy uncertainty within the U.S., U.K., and E.U on cryptocurrency prices (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance coin) using a structural equation model over the past five years. Findings: Our findings provided several compelling insights. Most notably, during the study period major corporations' adoption of cryptocurrencies positively influenced their price. Furthermore, a negative and significant association emerges between cryptocurrency prices and periods marked by economic policy uncertainty and inflation rates in the countries under investigation (U.S., U.K., and E.U). The results are robust under variations in sample composition and changes in sets of variables. Originality/value: The study uncovered the complex relationship between cryptocurrency price fluctuations and significant global events that transpired within the past five years by taking the factors identified in previous literature as a whole and adding new variables that are not well studied, such as the effect of Russian-Ukraine War and multinational corporations revealing cryptocurrency adoption intention on the prices of cryptocurrencies. This study represents a pivotal contribution by bridging a crucial research void and providing theoretical insights into the legal considerations to be undertaken by policymakers, and informed investment practices by traders, and corporate leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimization of production processes leads to an increase in the volume of output from the primary sector, as an instrument to protect the population from crossing the border of extreme poverty. The Republic of Serbia is a traditional producer of primary products, as evidenced by the realized surplus in the net export of agricultural crops. In the period after global financial crisis, the Republic of Serbia achieved an above-average inflation rate growth, compared to the countries of the European Union. In this research, we detect a significant participation of products from agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining to reduce the volatility of product prices. The purpose of the research is to prove the causal relationship between the rate of inflation and the volume of production primary products. The methodological part was carried out through the evaluation of the model using econometric methods. The conclusion indicates a high correlation between the production of primary outputs and the rate of inflation in the Serbian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic crisis in Sri Lanka began in 2019 and reached a crisis point in 2022 when protesters stormed the presidential palace in Colombo. Acute food, fuel, and other item shortages, soaring inflation, prolonged power outages, and a collapsing economy with few job opportunities all contribute to the populace's unrest. Sri Lanka still faces severe economic difficulties, and no one can say when they will be resolved. This country has seen the most prominent financial collapse since its independence in 1948. Unexpected inflation levels, a close to complete exhaustion of foreign currency reserves, a shortage of medical aid, and a rising price of essential commodities are the results. Numerous compounding reasons, including tax cuts, printing money, a countrywide regulation to move to natural or biological agriculture, the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter bombings, and the repercussions of the COVID-19 epidemic, have been cited as the root cause of the disaster. As early as 2022, these protests in Sri Lanka might be traced back to the country's economic woes. The primary driver of the current financial crisis in Sri Lanka is inflation. This article will look into Sri Lanka's inflation rates beginning in 2021. The inflation Rate of Sri Lanka has been forecasted for the next 6 months (through September 2023) using time series data. We used numerous Time Series Forecasting Algorithms for this multi-step ahead forecast. The results generated by these time series forecasters were in accordion with each other. Thus, we put forward the normalized results from each of these forecasting paradigms to get a better prediction on the inflation Rates, that Sri Lanka is supposed to face shortly (6 months), keeping in consideration of the current scenario being unaltered. The authors hope the Sri Lankan Administration will use the paper's predictions to take charge, which could lead to positive changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of our study is to examine the impact of money supply, interest rate and inflation rate on the economic growth in Morocco from 1990 to 2020. This research empirically analyzes how the key monetary settings interact and influence Morocco's Gross Domestic Product, using annual data on money supply, interest rates, and inflation sourced from the Moroccan Central Bank and the World Bank development Indicators. To explore the complex interactions and causal effects of the selected macroeconomic indicator on economic growth, we have employed a quantitative analysis based on the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and cointegration, implemented using the R programming language. The main findings reveal that money supply significantly boosts economic growth, while interest rates have negative effects. Moreover, inflation positively influences shortterm economic growth. These insights enhance understanding of the role that monetary policy plays in promoting economic development. This research enriches the academic literature by addressing a gap concerning Morocco's economic dynamics and guiding policymakers to develop more effective monetary strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Import flows are one of the major economic variables that play a significant role in global trade and determine a country’s economy’s performance. The current article imperially scrutinizes the symmetric relationship between energy electricity supply, inflation rate, exchange rate and import flows in South Africa. This objective was achieved through the application of econometric models such as ARDL, ECM and T-Y approaches. These approaches were applied on monthly time series from January 2002 to October 2022. The results indicated the presence of long-run and short-run import flows behaviour electricity supply, inflation and exchange rate volatility. While the inflation rate and electricity supply positively influence long-run import flows, the latter is negatively influenced by exchange rate volatility. To improve import flows in South Africa, the study recommends policymakers’ caution in selecting the country’s adequate exchange rate regime and considering electricity supply and inflation rate while establishing the country’s terms of trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Economics, Business & Politics (UEIP) is the property of International Journal of Economics, Business & Politics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study examines the determinants of Indonesian banking performance caused by global uncertainty such as geopolitical conflicts and post-pandemic conditions. The study adopted quantitative approach and used samples by 34 commercial banks listed on Indonesia Exchange Stock period 2017 to 2023. Panel data regression used as analytical method. This study used bank size, bank capital, liquidity, credit risk, and inflation rate as independent variables. Furthermore, bank performance was measured by return on asset. The findings of this study were bank size and inflation rate positively impact on return on asset while the other variables have no relationship on bank performance. This study could be used as reference for future research and for banking management decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sovereign Wealth Funds SWFs play a crucial role in global financial markets, particularly during periods of crisis. This paper delves into the impact of SWF interventions on inflation rates amidst financial crises. By analyzing historical data of some emerging country how possessed a SWFs, the paper examines how SWFs actions affect inflation dynamics. Additionally, the paper investigates the relationship between SWF interventions and inflation rate. Through empirical analysis, the paper provides insights into the extent to which SWF interventions contribute to inflation volatility and stability during times of crisis. Understanding the interplay between SWFs and inflation is essential for macroeconomic stability in the face of financial turmoil.

The optimization of production processes leads to an increase in the volume of output from the primary sector, as an instrument to protect the population from crossing the border of extreme poverty. The Republic of Serbia is a traditional producer of primary products, as evidenced by the realized surplus in the net export of agricultural crops. In the period after global financial crisis, the Republic of Serbia achieved an above-average inflation rate growth, compared to the countries of the European Union. In this research, we detect a significant participation of products from agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining to reduce the volatility of product prices. The purpose of the research is to prove the causal relationship between the rate of inflation and the volume of production primary products. The methodological part was carried out through the evaluation of the model using econometric methods. The conclusion indicates a high correlation between the production of primary outputs and the rate of inflation in the Serbian economy.

This study examines the impact, conditional correlation and volatility spillover effect of remittances, foreign direct investment and inflation rate on GDP in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri-Lanka, three Asian nations that are particularly vulnerable. While numerous studies have examined the relationship between remittances, FDI and IR on GDP but this paper approaches advanced econometric techniques to capture spillover effect and the dynamic interactions between the variables. For estimation purposes the study employs different econometric techniques such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, VAR model, Granger causality tests, Impulse Response function, Variance Decomposition and BEKK-GARCH model. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka's REM, FDI and IR have no significant effects on GDP according to the VAR model. BEKK-GARCH demonstrates that three countries have both unidirectional and bidirectional transmissions of volatility, with the exception of Pakistan's REM and Bangladesh's FDI. We find that VAR model may not be adequate in capturing the complex dynamics between variables, which can be better captured by BEKK-GARCH model. Our comparison research shows how these variables affect GDP differently and similarly in each of the three nations, giving policymakers information they can use to create customized policies that encourage economic growth.

Worldwide, inflation is one of the most used terms when discussing the economy and beyond. Inflation is the indicator that governments, the population, financial entities, investors and not least monetary authorities are interested in. Since central banks have price stability as their main objective or not, they act through monetary policies when necessary. Monetary decisions in the Eurozone and the United States - as financially important regions - influence other economies. This paper focuses on the study of the evolution of the inflation rate in these two cases because of the importance of the subject. It will be found that inflation can also be a challenge for these large financial entities – Federal Reserve System and European Central Bank.

The tax system is a product of human thought, decision, and action because of the evolution of human society, created to meet financial objectives, to which are added the objectives of the economic and social system. The general objective of the research on the evolution of the tax system in Romania is to understand the transformations and changes that have taken place in the country's tax system over time. This research aims to analyze the legislative, economic, and social changes that have affected the tax system and impacted on revenue collection for the state. The research on the evolution of the tax system in Romania and the identification of strengths and weaknesses has the overall aim of understanding and improving the functioning of the tax system, contributing to a more efficient tax administration, and promoting a healthier economic climate.

This paper investigates the relationship between real estate indices, inflation and interest rates in both Europe and the USA. The main objective is to examine the impact of inflation and interest rates on the respective real estate indices and test specific hypotheses. The study utilizes cointegration analysis to assess the long-term equilibrium and the speed of adjustment between the variables. The analysis reveals the presence of cointegrating relationships in both regions, indicating a long-term equilibrium between the variables The findings support the hypothesis that inflation has a significant and positive impact on the real estate indices in both regions. However, the hypothesis stating a significant and negative impact of interest rates on the indices is not supported.

We modelled Nigeria Inflation rate using univariate time series methodology. A data set covering January 2003 to June 2022 was divided into two time periods, vis-à-vis, Pre COVID-19 pandemic event period and the Combined period (combination of both pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods). This was done with a view to examining the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the data generation mechanism of Nigeria Inflation rate. The Inflation rate data was found to be non-stationary and was appropriately differenced to attain stationarity. ARIMA models were fitted for the two scenarios using Box Jenkins methodology. Appropriate diagnostic analysis was conducted and the estimated models were used for forecasting. While the estimated model for Pre COVID-19 event series yielded forecast rates that suggest an onward rise in Nigeria Inflation rate, the Combined period model yielded forecast rates that suggest a downward movement of the Inflation rate.

This study analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic factors that affect the inflation rate. Through our research, we will analyze the impact of money supply growth, economic growth, import level and export level on the inflation rate for 40 countries that we have taken. There are: 6 Latin American countries, 2 Western Balkan countries, 19 Europe countries, 10 countries of Asia, 2 countries of Africa and Australia, within 8 years, namely from 2012 to 2023. The data for the execution of the work were obtained from the World Bank as a credible institution for the publication of statistics and Trading Economics, Another important institution in terms of statistics where 320 observations which are included in the analysis, so the data of this study are second- hand data. Since we have a group of study countries, then the data type of the study is Panel. The econometric model that we used for analysis is the model with the method of small squares. The findings of this paper show that countries that increase the money supply will also face an increase in the inflation rate, so the impact of the money supply on the inflation rate is positive. In the research countries, the results show us that we have a very small difference in the average import and export, which results in a very small average economic growth.

Ensuring energy security is one of the most vital goals for countries that seek sustainable economic development because fluctuations in global energy markets lead to economic instability for energy-exporting countries (such as Iran). Also, developing countries (such as Iran) have reasons to worry about energy security. First, they cannot apply imported energy technologies, which leads to dependence on foreign know-how. Second, these countries need better governance to manage energy technologies effectively. Third, in cases of disruption due to natural or man-made events, the energy infrastructure in these countries is more vulnerable. In this regard, the current research seeks to investigate the role of the energy security risk index and inflation rate in improving the economic stability of Iran by using the very new approach of quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) modeling in the annual period from 1991 to 2021. The results show that the quantile (0.5 to 0.7) of the energy security risk index and the quantile (0.4 to 0.9) of economic stability indicate a negative relationship. Therefore, the energy security risk index causes economic stability to decrease. Also, in quantile (0.1 to 0.95) inflation rate and quantile (0.1 to 0.7) economic stability have a negative relationship, and in quantile (0.6 to 0.95) inflation rate and quantile (0.7 to 0.95) economic stability has a positive relationship. Therefore, a high inflation rate hurts economic stability in the long run. Thus, the results show the importance of international cooperation in developing a more sustainable energy system that increases the security of energy supply and economic stability.

The long-run economic benefits of foreign aid in a recipient country depend on the absorptive capacity of the nation in terms of institutions, macroeconomic stability, and financial development. While the role of institutional quality on the aid-growth nexus has already been empirically determined, the moderating roles of inflation and financial development have not been investigated. Therefore, our study addresses these research gaps by examining the moderating roles of inflation and financial development on the impact of aid on economic growth in Bangladesh during 1980–2020 period. It utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique. This study reveals that the impact of aid on growth depends on the levels of inflation and financial development. If inflation rises above 9.85% threshold level, the marginal effect of aid on growth turns negative. In contrast, the marginal effect of aid on growth is positive even at the maximum level of financial development. The outcomes are robust to alternative proxies and structural breaks. The implication is that an increase in aid and financial development boosts economic growth, but high inflation limits the efficacy of aid. Therefore, to reap the long-term economic benefits of aid, countries should embrace the requisite macroeconomic stability and financial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigates the effect of fiscal policy on the inflation rate in a panel of 44 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 2003–2020 using a non-linear system generalized method of moments (system GMM) and the dynamic panel threshold estimation techniques. The results show that the recent increase in inflation rate has a fiscal nature and that monetary policy alone may not provide an effective response. Specifically, the results indicate that a positive shock to fiscal policy (captured by public debts) has a positive and statistically significant effect on inflation, while a negative shock to public debt has a statistically non-significant impact on the inflation rate. Also, money supply exerted a positive and insignificant impact on inflation, indicating that the current inflation rate in the region may not be induced by money supply. However, the joint effect of public debts and money supply shows that public debts aid the effect of money supply on the inflation rate, albeit, not in the proportion predicted by the quantity theory of money. Further, the results also found a public debt threshold point of 60.59% of GDP. This implies the current inflationary pressure may be rooted in fiscal policy and that further accumulation of public debts beyond the benchmark established in the study would worsen the inflationary pressure in SSA. Importantly, the study found that for fiscal policy to spur growth and reduce inflationary pressure in SSA, the inflation rate should be managed and brought within a single-digit framework of 4%. The research and policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A well-capitalized banking system is crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability, preventing financial crises, and bolstering the economy's resilience to shocks. Governments often strive to ensure adequate bank capitalization to foster stable economic growth. This article aims to assess the relationship between bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability in 34 European countries from 2010 to 2021, based on World Bank statistics. The study utilizes the principal components method to identify relevant indicators of bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability, canonical analysis and regression analyses to detail the interconnections between these blocks. The canonical analysis confirms a link between bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability indicators with a coefficient of determination of 0.617 signifying that 61.8% of the variance in macroeconomic stability is explained by fluctuations in bank capitalization. The article presents one fixed-effect and two random-effect regression models detailing the directions and strength of influence of independent variables (NPL, ROA, ROE - indicators of the bank capitalization level) on dependent variables (INFLATION, UNEMPL, GINI - indicators of macroeconomic stability). The Wald criteria and a p-value less than 0.05 indicated that the models with random effects (UNEMPL, GINI) were statistically significant. The results reveal that a 1% increase in non-performing loans correlates with a 0.25% rise in the unemployment rate, and a 1% increase in return on assets leads to a 0.08% increase in the unemployment rate. Additionally, a 1% increase in non-performing loans raises the Gini index by 0.05%, while a 1% increase in return on equity decreases the Gini index by 0.03%. Notably, the impact of return on assets on the unemployment rate and the Gini coefficient is not statistically significant (p-value greater than 0.05). These results can inform the forecasting of national indicators, the development of tools to ensure sufficient bank capitalization, and the formulation of effective macroeconomic policies, taking into account fluctuations in banks' capitalization levels as key financial intermediaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]