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104 М30 М34 Expert-based energy scenarios are mainly developed following assumptions of experts and, in most cases, a limited number of stakeholders. Such an approach will provide satisfactory results in centrally managed energy sectors where further decisions could be envisaged relatively precisely (electricity production/distribution, district heating systems, etc.). The same approach will provide more uncertain outcomes of future energy structure in the household sector, where decisions related to consumption, selection of energy source, or application of specific technology are made by numerous individuals. Besides prices, the decisions of individuals are influenced by their attitudes, social environment, incentive measures, etc. The influence of consumer behavior and attitudes on decision-making can be examined using the agent-based simulation model. The output of this simulation model is the structure of energy consumption in the analyzed period. Such data can be further used as one of the main assumptions in scenario development in an expert-based energy model. The objective of this paper is to propose a new approach to energy modeling, in which the result from the agent-based simulation model would serve as an input in the expert-based modeling process. The obtained model integrates expert knowledge with the results of the bottom-up modeling approach. This approach allows early assessment of the effects of supporting measures and mechanisms for accelerating the energy transition of a large number of individuals. The new approach is applied and tested in the development of a simulation model of energy transition of individual households' heating systems in Serbia.

1 21 17 XXIV M50 М52 U radu su prikazani rezultati istraživanja i ankete koja je sprovedena 2020. godine u domaćinstvima sa individualnim sistemima grejanja u Srbiji. Cilj ankete je bio da se sagleda stanje individualnih sistema grejanja, ali i stavovi vlasnika sistema vezano za energetsku tranziciju. Rezultati ukazuju na zastarelost sistema grejanja, nisku efikasnost, nedovoljna ulaganja u primenu mera energetske efikasnosti i nedostatak finansijskih sredstava za ulaganje u održivo grejanje. Osnovni prioriteti kod izbora načina grejanja jesu troškovi kupovine sistema i troškovi energenta, dok su uticaj ekološkog faktora i svest o potrebi energetske tranzicije relativno slabo izraženi. Troškovi nabavke modernih sistema su identifikovani i kao najveća prepreke za zamenu postojećih sistema, a oko polovine domaćinstava ima pozitivan stav prema potencijalnom subvencionisanju troškova za zamenu postojećih sistema za nove i efikasnije. This paper presents the results of a household survey about individual heating conducted in Serbia in 2020. The objective of the survey was to examine the details of individual heating systems in households and households’ attitudes regarding the energy transition. The results indicate the obsolescence of the heating system, low efficiency, insufficient investment in the implementation of energy efficiency measures, and lack of funds for investment in sustainable heating. The main priorities when choosing a mode of heating are heating system costs and fuel costs, while the impacts of environmental factors and energy transition awareness are relatively weak. The cost of heating systems has also been identified as the biggest barrier to replacing existing systems. On the other hand, about half of households have a positive attitude towards potentially subsidizing the replacement of current heating systems with new and more efficient ones.

111128 247 M20 М21 This paper presents the results of the household survey on individual household heating systems in Serbia. The survey was conducted in the period October to December 2020 with the participation of 1100 households with individual household heating systems. The information collected in the questionnaire can be separated into three main parts: basic household data, current heating system characteristics, and households’ perceptions and attitudes. The survey results provide unique and comprehensive information concerning individual household heating systems and the main barriers and drivers for a successful energy transition in the future. The results show the obsolescence of household heating systems, low efficiency, insufficient investment in thermal insulation in the past, and lack of financial resources for investing in sustainable heating. On the other hand, this survey highlights the positive attitude of about half of households towards potential subsidizing of the cost of new heating systems. This survey presents a valid starting point for defining instruments aimed to improve energy efficiency in the household sector, diminish its influence on climate change, and secure energy transition towards sustainable heating systems. The obtained results should be indicative for middle-income developing countries at the beginning of the energy transition process.

435 428 М30 М33 The use of solid fuels (wood biomass and coal) for heating of households continues to be common practice within European countries. Solid fuel combustion in households contributes more than 46% to total emissions of fine particulate matter. In this study, a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of firewood-based and pellet-based heating systems is performed. These two systems represent two different types of individual wood biomass heating systems. In the case of the firewood-based heating systems, it is analyzed a typical stove in Serbian households, and in the case of pellet-based, a modern wood pellet-based furnace is analyzed. The objective of the LCA study is to assess the environmental performance of heating systems using GWP index, expressed through CO2-eq emissions. According to the results, wood pellet furnace could reduce emissions by 38% compared with the firewood stove. The results showed that wood pellet furnace has a lower negative impact on the environment and climate change, and at the same time, it ensures the financial benefits through savings and conservation of natural resources. This research showed that the implementation of LCA for assessing heating systems is an efficient and relatively simple method for obtaining new information regarding the household heating sector.