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Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.

Biotic responses to global change include directional shifts in organismal traits. Body size, an integrative trait that determines demographic rates and ecosystem functions, is often thought to be shrinking in the Anthropocene. Here, we assess the prevalence of body size change in six taxon groups across 5,032 assemblage time-series spanning 1960-2020. Using the Price equation to partition this change into within-species body size versus compositional changes, we detect prevailing decreases in body size through time. Change in assemblage composition contributes more to body size changes than within-species trends, but both components show substantial variation in magnitude and direction. The biomass of assemblages remains remarkably stable as decreases in body size trade-off with increases in abundance.One-Sentence SummaryVariable within-species and compositional trends combine into shrinking body size, abundance increases and stable biomass.

A distinctive feature of this review is a critical analysis of methods and results of measurements of the optical properties of tissues in a wide spectral range from deep UV to terahertz waves. Much attention is paid to measurements of the refractive index of biological tissues and liquids, the knowledge of which is necessary for the effective application of many methods of optical imaging and diagnostics. The optical parameters of healthy and pathological tissues are presented, and the reasons for their differences are discussed, which is important for the discrimination of pathologies and the demarcation of their boundaries. When considering the interaction of terahertz radiation with tissues, the concept of an effective medium is discussed, and relaxation models of the effective optical properties of tissues are presented. Attention is drawn to the manifestation of the scattering properties of tissues in the THz range and the problems of measuring the optical properties of tissues in this range are discussed. In conclusion, a method for the dynamic analysis of the optical properties of tissues under optical clearing using an application of immersion agents is presented. The main mechanisms and technologies of optical clearing, as well as examples of the successful application for differentiation of healthy and pathological tissues, are analyzed.

The recent increasing interest in the application of radiology contrasting agents to create transparency in biological tissues implies that the diffusion properties of those agents need evaluation. The comparison of those properties with the ones obtained for other optical clearing agents allows to perform an optimized agent selection to create optimized transparency in clinical applications. In this study, the evaluation and comparison of the diffusion properties of gadobutrol and glycerol in skeletal muscle was made, showing that although gadobutrol has a higher molar mass than glycerol, its low viscosity allows for a faster diffusion in the muscle. The characterization of the tissue dehydration and refractive index matching mechanisms of optical clearing was made in skeletal muscle, namely by the estimation of the diffusion coefficients for water, glycerol and gadobutrol. The estimated tortuosity values of glycerol (2.2) and of gadobutrol (1.7) showed a longer path-length for glycerol in the muscle.

A fast calculation method was used to obtain the spectral optical properties of human normal and pathological (chromophobe renal cell carcinoma) kidney tissues. Using total transmittance, total reflectance and collimated transmittance spectra acquired from ex vivo kidney samples, the spectral optical properties of both tissues, namely the absorption, the scattering and the reduced scattering coefficients, as well as the scattering anisotropy, dispersion and light penetration depth, were calculated between 200 and 1000 nm. Analysis of the mean ab sorption coefficient spectra of the kidney tissues showed that both contain melanin and lipofuscin, and that 83 % of the melanin in the normal kidney converts into lipofuscin in the pathological kidney.

Earth’s biodiversity continues to change rapidly through the Anthropocene1, including widespread reordering of species in space2,3 and time4,5. A common expectation of this reordering is that the species composition of sites is becoming increasingly similar across space, known as biotic homogenization, due to anthropogenic pressures and invasive species6,7. While many have argued that homogenisationis a common phenomenon (e.g., 6–10), it is equally plausible that communities can become more different through time, known as differentiation, including through human impacts11,12. Here, we used a novel adaptation of Whittaker’s (1960)13 spatial-scale explicit diversity partition to assess the prevalence of biotic homogenisation and differentiation, and associated changes in species richness at smaller and larger spatial scales. We applied this approach to a compilation of species assemblages from 205 metacommunities that were surveyed for 10-64 years, and 54 ‘checklists’ that spanned 50-500+ years. Scale-dependent changes of species richness were highly heterogeneous, with approximately equal evidence for homogenisation(i.e., lower β-diversity) and differentiation (i.e., higher β-diversity) through time across all regions, taxa and data types. Homogenisation was most often due to increased numbers of widespread species, which tended to increase both local and regional richness through time. These results emphasise that an explicit consideration of spatial scale is needed to fully understand biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.

SAB, TE, AS, and JMC were supported by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, funded by the German Research Foundation (FZT 118). Biodiversity metrics often integrate data on the presence and abundance of multiple species. Yet our understanding of covariation between changes to the numbers of individuals, the evenness of species relative abundances, and the total number of species remains limited. Using individual-based rarefaction curves, we introduce a conceptual framework to understand how expected positive relationships among changes in abundance, evenness and richness arise, and how they can break down. We then examined interdependencies between changes in abundance, evenness and richness in more than 1100 assemblages sampled either through time or across space. As predicted, richness changes were greatest when abundance and evenness changed in the same direction, and countervailing changes in abundance and evenness acted to constrain the magnitude of changes in species richness. Site-to-site differences in abundance, evenness, and richness were often decoupled, and pairwise relationships between these components across assemblages were weak. In contrast, changes in species richness and relative abundance were strongly correlated for assemblages varying through time. Temporal changes in local biodiversity showed greater inertia and stronger relationships between the component changes when compared to site-to-site variation. Overall, local variation in assemblage diversity was rarely due to repeated passive samples from an approximately static species abundance distribution. Instead, changing species relative abundances often dominated local variation in diversity. Moreover, how changing relative abundances combined with changes to total abundance frequently determined the magnitude of richness changes. Embracing the interdependencies between changing abundance, evenness and richness can provide new information for better understanding biodiversity change in the Anthropocene. Publisher PDF

Biodiversity metrics often integrate data on the presence and abundance of multiple species. Yet our understanding of how changes to the numbers of individuals, the evenness of species’ relative abundances, and the total number of species covary remains limited, both theoretically and empirically. Using individual-based rarefaction curves, we first show how expected positive relationships among changes in abundance, evenness and richness arise, and how they can break down. We then examined the interdependency between changes in abundance, evenness and richness more than 1100 assemblages sampled either through time or across space. As expected, richness changes were greatest when abundance and evenness changed in the same direction, whereas countervailing changes in abundance and evenness acted to constrain the magnitude of changes in species richness. Site-to-site variation in diversity was greater than rates of change through time. Moreover, changes in abundance, evenness, and richness were often spatially decoupled, and pairwise relationships between changes in these components were weak between sites. In contrast, changes in species richness and relative abundance were strongly correlated for assemblages sampled through time, meaning temporal changes in local biodiversity showed greater inertia and stronger relationships between the components changes when compared to site-to-site variation. Both temporal and spatial variation in local assemblage diversity were rarely attributable solely to changes in assemblage size sampling more or less of a static species abundance distribution. Instead, changing species’ relative abundances often dominate local variation in diversity. Moreover, how these altered patterns of relative abundance combine with changes to total abundance strongly determine the magnitude of richness changes. Interdependencies found here suggest looking beyond changes in abundance, evenness and richness as separate responses offering unique insights into diversity change can increase our understanding of biodiversity change.

Pregnant women may be at higher risk of severe complications associated with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which may lead to obstetrical complications. We performed a case control study comparing pregnant women with severe coronavirus disease 19 (cases) to pregnant women with a milder form (controls) enrolled in the COVI-Preg international registry cohort between March 24 and July 26, 2020. Risk factors for severity, obstetrical and immediate neonatal outcomes were assessed. A total of 926 pregnant women with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 were included, among which 92 (9.9%) presented with severe COVID-19 disease. Risk factors for severe maternal outcomes were pulmonary comorbidities [aOR 4.3, 95% CI 1.9-9.5], hypertensive disorders [aOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.0-7.0] and diabetes [aOR2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.5]. Pregnant women with severe maternal outcomes were at higher risk of caesarean section [70.7% (n = 53/75)], preterm delivery [62.7% (n = 32/51)] and newborns requiring admission to the neonatal intensive care unit [41.3% (n = 31/75)]. In this study, several risk factors for developing severe complications of SARS-CoV-2 infection among pregnant women were identified including pulmonary comorbidities, hypertensive disorders and diabetes. Obstetrical and neonatal outcomes appear to be influenced by the severity of maternal disease. ispartof: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS vol:11 issue:1 ispartof: location:England status: published

Countryside biogeography seeks to explain the distribution of wildlife in human-dominated landscapes. We review the theoretical and empirical progress towards this goal, assessing what forces control the presence, abundance, and richness of species in anthropogenic and natural habitats, based on characteristics of the landscape and the species themselves. Recent modifications of species-area relationships that incorporate multiple habitat types have improved understanding of species diversity in countryside landscapes. Attempts to understand why species affiliate with human-modified habitats have been met with only partial success. Though traits frequently explain associations with human-modified habitats within studies, explanatory traits are only rarely shared between studies, regions, or taxa. Nonetheless, greater attention to the regional and climatological context of countryside landscapes has uncovered that (i) species that associate with human-modified habitats within landscapes tend to occur primarily in warm and/or dry biomes at regional scales and (ii) species that rely exclusively on human-modified habitats in cool or wet regions may be restricted to natural habitats in warm or dry regions. There remains a pressing need to determine how biodiversity can best be supported within landscapes to preserve nature and maximize ecosystem service benefits for humans. Future work in countryside biogeography must identify how land-use change interacts with other global stressors (e.g., climate change), determine how extinction debt and population sinks influence diversity, quantify the cascading effects of community changes on ecosystem services, and elucidate the evolutionary history and origins of species that today dwell in the countryside.

Land-use change is widely regarded as a simplifying and homogenising force in nature. In contrast, analysing global land-use reconstructions from the 10th to 20th centuries, we found progressive increases in the number, evenness, and diversity of ecosystems (including human-modified land-use types) across the globe. Ecosystem diversity increased more rapidly after ∼1700CE, then slowed or partially reversed (depending on the metric) following the mid-20th century acceleration of human impacts. Differentiation also generally increased across space, with homogenization only evident in the presence-absence analysis of ecosystem types at the global scale. Our results suggest that human land-use changes have primarily driven increases in ecosystem diversity over the last millennium.

Land-use change is currently the main driver of biodiversity loss. Projections of land-use change are often used to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity of future pathways of human development. However, such analyses frequently neglect that species can persist in human-modified habitats. Our aim was to estimate changes in biodiversity, considering affinities for multiple habitats, for three different land-use scenarios. Two scenarios focused on more sustainable trajectories of land-use change, based on either technological improvements (Pathway A) or societal changes (Pathway B), and the third reflected the historical or business-as-usual trends (Pathway 0). Using Portugal as a case study, we produced spatially-explicit projections of land-use change based on these pathways, and then we assessed the resulting changes in bird species richness and composition projected to occur by 2050 in each of the scenarios. By 2050, alpha and gamma diversity were projected to decrease, relative to 2010, in Pathway 0 and increase in Pathways A and B. However, different pathways favored different species groups, and presented strong regional differences. In the technological improvement pathway, loss of extensive agricultural areas led to an increase in both natural and extensive forest areas. In this pathway, forest species increase at the expense of farmland species, while in the societal change pathway the reverse occurs, as extensive agricultural areas were projected to increase. We show that while multiple positive pathways (A and B) for biodiversity can be envisioned, they will lead to differential impacts on biodiversity depending on the transformational changes in place and the regional socio-economic context. Our results suggest that considering compositional aspects of biodiversity can be critical in choosing the appropriate regional land-use policies.

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics. The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models. Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas.

[No abstract available]

The species-area relationship (SAR) has been often used to project species extinctions as a consequence of habitat loss. However, recent studies have suggested that the SAR may overestimate species extinctions, at least in the short-term. We argue that the main reason for this overestimation is that the classic SAR ignores the persistence of species in human-modified habitats. We use data collected worldwide to analyse what is the fraction of bird and plant species that remain in different human-modified habitats at the local scale after full habitat conversion. We observe that both taxa have consistent responses to the different land-use types, with strongest reductions in species richness in cropland across the globe, and in pasture in the tropics. We show that the results from these studies cannot be linearly scaled from plots to large regions, as this again overestimates the impacts of land-use change on biodiversity. The countryside SAR provides a unifying framework to incorporate both the effect of species persistence in the landscape matrix and the non-linear response of the proportion of species extinctions to sampling area, generating more realistic projections of biodiversity loss.

Biodiversity and ecosystem service losses driven by land-use change are expected to intensify as a growing and more affluent lobal population requires more agricultural and forestry products, and teleconnections in the global economy lead to increasingremote environmental responsibility. By combining global biophysical and economic models, we show that, between theyears 2000 and 2011, overall population and economic growth resulted in increasing total impacts on bird diversity and carbonsequestration globally, despite a reduction of land-use impacts per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The exceptions wereNorth America and Western Europe, where there was a reduction of forestry and agriculture impacts on nature accentuated bythe 2007–2008 financial crisis. Biodiversity losses occurred predominantly in Central and Southern America, Africa and Asiawith international trade an important and growing driver. In 2011, 33% of Central and Southern America and 26% of Africa’sbiodiversity impacts were driven by consumption in other world regions. Overall, cattle farming is the major driver of biodiversityloss, but oil seed production showed the largest increases in biodiversity impacts. Forestry activities exerted the highestimpact on carbon sequestration, and also showed the largest increase in the 2000–2011 period. Our results suggest that toaddress the biodiversity crisis, governments should take an equitable approach recognizing remote responsibility, and promotea shift of economic development towards activities with low biodiversity impacts.

Human activities are accelerating global biodiversity change and have resulted in severely threatened ecosystem services. A large proportion of terrestrial biodiversity is harbored by soil, but soil biodiversity has been omitted from many global biodiversity assessments and conservation actions, and understanding of global patterns of soil biodiversity remains limited. In particular, the extent to which hotspots and coldspots of aboveground and soil biodiversity overlap is not clear. We examined global patterns of these overlaps by mapping indices of aboveground (mammals, birds, amphibians, vascular plants) and soil (bacteria, fungi, macrofauna) biodiversity that we created using previously published data on species richness. Areas of mismatch between aboveground and soil biodiversity covered 27% of Earth's terrestrial surface. The temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome had the highest proportion of grid cells with high aboveground biodiversity but low soil biodiversity, whereas the boreal and tundra biomes had intermediate soil biodiversity but low aboveground biodiversity. While more data on soil biodiversity are needed, both to cover geographic gaps and to include additional taxa, our results suggest that protecting aboveground biodiversity may not sufficiently reduce threats to soil biodiversity. Given the functional importance of soil biodiversity and the role of soils in human well-being, soil biodiversity should be considered further in policy agendas and conservation actions by adapting management practices to sustain soil biodiversity and considering soil biodiversity when designing protected areas.Disparidades Mundiales entre la Biodiversidad Sobre y Bajo el Suelo Resumen Las actividades humanas están acelerando el cambio en la biodiversidad mundial y han tenido como resultado unos servicios ambientales severamente amenazados. Una gran proporción de la biodiversidad terrestre está albergada en el suelo, pero la biodiversidad de este ha sido omitida de varias evaluaciones mundiales de biodiversidad y de las acciones de conservación, además de que el entendimiento de los patrones mundiales de la biodiversidad del suelo permanece limitado; particularmente, la extensión del traslape entre los puntos fríos y calientes de biodiversidad sobre y bajo suelo no está clara. Examinamos los patrones mundiales de estos traslapes mapeando los índices de biodiversidad sobre el suelo (mamíferos, aves, anfibios y plantas vasculares) y bajo el suelo (bacterias, hongos y macrofauna) que creamos con datos previamente publicados de la riqueza de especies. Las áreas de disparidad entre la biodiversidad sobre y bajo el suelo cubrieron el 27% de la superficie terrestre del planeta. El bioma de los bosques templados de plantas frondosas y mixtas tuvo la proporción más alta de celdas de cuadrícula con una biodiversidad alta sobre el suelo, pero baja para en el subsuelo, mientras que los biomas boreales y de la tundra tuvieron una biodiversidad intermedia bajo el suelo, pero baja para el sobre suelo. Aunque se requieren más datos sobre la biodiversidad del suelo, tanto para cubrir los vacíos geográficos como para incluir a taxones adiciones, nuestros resultados sugieren que la protección a la biodiversidad sobre el suelo puede no reducir suficientemente las amenazas para la biodiversidad del suelo. Dada la importancia funcional de la biodiversidad del suelo y el papel de los suelos en el bienestar humano, se debería considerar a la biodiversidad del suelo mucho más en las agendas políticas y en las acciones de conservación, adaptando a las prácticas de manejo para que mantengan a la biodiversidad del suelo y la consideren cuando designen áreas protegidas.人类活动正在导致全球生物多样性的快速变化, 并已严重影响到生态系统服务功能。陆地生物多样性中很大一部分存在于土壤之中, 然而, 许多全球生物多样性评估和保护行动都没有考虑土壤生物多样性, 人们对全球土壤生物多样性格局的认识也十分有限, 特别是对地表生物多样性和土壤生物多样性的热点地区及贫瘠地区的重叠程度知之甚少。为了研究全球地表生物多样性和土壤生物多样性的重叠情况, 我们利用已发表的物种丰富度数据设计了地表生物多样性 (哺乳动物、鸟类、两栖类、维管植物) 及土壤生物多样性 (细菌、真菌、大型动物群) 指标, 用于绘制相应的地图。结果显示, 地表和土壤生物多样性不匹配的地区占地球陆地面积的 27% 。在温带阔叶林和混交林生物群中, 地表生物多样性高而土壤生物多样性低的栅格占比最高, 而寒带和苔原生物群则是土壤生物多样性中等而地表生物多样性低。虽然还有待增加土壤生物多样性的数据以囊括更多地理区域和生物类群, 但我们的结果已经表明, 保护地表生物多样性可能不足以减少对土壤生物多样性的威胁。鉴于土壤生物多样性的重要功能以及土壤对人类福祉的作用, 应在政策议程和保护行动中更多地考虑土壤生物多样性, 如调整管理实践以保护土壤生物多样性、在保护区设计中纳入土壤生物多样性等等。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

Although land use change is a key driver of biodiversity change, related variables such as habitat area and habitat heterogeneity are seldom considered in modeling approaches at larger extents. To address this knowledge gap we tested the contribution of land use related variables to models describing richness patterns of amphibians, reptiles and passerines in the Iberian Peninsula. We analyzed the relationship between species richness and habitat heterogeneity at two spatial resolutions (i.e., 10 km × 10 km and 50 km × 50 km). Using both ordinary least square and simultaneous autoregressive models, we assessed the relative importance of land use variables, climate variables and topographic variables. We also compare the species–area relationship with a multi-habitat model, the countryside species–area relationship, to assess the role of the area of different types of habitats on species diversity across scales. The association between habitat heterogeneity and species richness varied with the taxa and spatial resolution. A positive relationship was detected for all taxa at a grain size of 10 km × 10 km, but only passerines responded at a grain size of 50 km × 50 km. Species richness patterns were well described by abiotic predictors, but habitat predictors also explained a considerable portion of the variation. Moreover, species richness patterns were better described by a multi-habitat species-area model, incorporating land use variables, than by the classic power model, which only includes area as the single explanatory variable. Our results suggest that the role of land use in shaping species richness patterns goes beyond the local scale and persists at larger spatial scales. These findings call for the need of integrating land use variables in models designed to assess species richness response to large scale environmental changes.

Global biodiversity change is one of the most pressing environmental issues of our time. Here, we review current scientific knowledge on global biodiversity change and identify the main knowledge gaps. We discuss two components of biodiversity change—biodiversity alterations and biodiversity loss—across four dimensions of biodiversity: species extinctions, species abundances, species distributions, and genetic diversity. We briefly review the impacts that modern humans and their ancestors have had on biodiversity and discuss the recent declines and alterations in biodiversity. We analyze the direct pressures on biodiversity change: habitat change, overexploitation, exotic species, pollution, and climate change. We discuss the underlying causes, such as demographic growth and resource use, and review existing scenario projections. We identify successes and impending opportunities in biodiversity policy and management, and highlight gaps in biodiversity monitoring and models. Finally, we discuss how the ecosystem services framework can be used to identify undesirable biodiversity change and allocate conservation efforts.

Aim.Biodiversity loss, measured as count of extinction events, is a key component of biodiversity change, and can significantly impact ecosystem services. However, estimation of the loss has focused mostly on per-species extinction rates measured over limited numbers of spatial scales, with no theory linking small-scale extirpations with global extinctions. Here we provide such link by introducing the relationship between area and per-species probability of extinction (PxAR) and between area and count of realized extinction events in that area (NxAR). We show theoretical and empirical forms of these relationships, and we discuss their role in perception and estimation of the current extinction crisis.LocationUSA, Europe, Czech Republic, Barro Colorado IslandMethodsWe derived the expected forms of PxAR and NxAR from a range of theoretical frameworks based on theory of island biogeography, neutral models, and species-area relationships. We constructed PxAR and NxAR in five empirical datasets on butterflies, plants, trees and birds, collected over range of spatial scales.ResultsBoth the theoretical arguments and empirical data support monotonically decreasing PxAR, i.e. per-species extinction probability decreasing with increasing area; however, we also report a rare theoretical possibility of locally increasing PxAR. In contrast, both theory and data revealed complex NxAR, i.e. counts of extinction events follow variety of relationships with area, including nonlinear unimodal, multimodal and U-shaped relationships, depending on region and taxon.Main conclusionsThe uncovered wealth of forms of NxAR can explain why biodiversity change (the net outcome of losses and gains) also appears scale-dependent. Furthermore, the complex scale dependence of PxAR and NxAR means that global extinctions indicate little about local extirpations, and vice versa. Hence, effort should be made to understand and report extinction crisis as a scale-dependent problem. In this effort, estimation of scaling relationships such as PxAR and NxAR should be central.

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell , 368–371 (2011)10.1038/nature09985 . He and Hubbell developed a sampling theory for the species–area relationship (SAR) and the endemics–area relationship (EAR)1. They argued that the number of extinctions after habitat loss is described by the EAR and that extinction rates in previous studies are overestimates because the EAR is always lower than the SAR. Here we show that their conclusion is not general and depends on the geometry of habitat destruction and the scale of the SAR. We also question their critique of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment estimates, as those estimates are not dependent on the SAR only, although important uncertainties remain due to other methodological issues.

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