Search

The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar was unprecedented in the African region, resulting in 2417 cases (498 confirmed, 793 probable and 1126 suspected) and 209 deaths by the end of the acute urban pneumonic phase of the outbreak. The Health Emergencies Programme of the WHO Regional Office for Africa together with the WHO Country Office and WHO Headquarters assisted the Ministry of Public Health of Madagascar in the rapid implementation of plague prevention and control measures while collecting and analysing quantitative and qualitative data to inform immediate interventions. We document the key findings of the evidence available to date and actions taken as a result. Based on the four goals of operational research - effective dissemination of results, peer-reviewed publication, changes to policy and practice and improvements in programme performance and health - we evaluate the use of evidence to inform response to the outbreak and describe lessons learned for future outbreak responses in the WHO African region. This article may not be reprinted or reused in any way in order to promote any commercial products or services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Universal access to childhood vaccination is important to child health and sustainable development. Here we identify, at a fine spatial scale, under-immunized children and zero-dose children. Using Chad, as an example, the most recent nationally representative household survey that included recommended vaccine antigens was assembled. Age-disaggregated population (12-23 months) and vaccination coverage were modelled at a fine spatial resolution scale (1km × 1 km) using a Bayesian geostatistical framework adjusting for a set of parsimonious covariates. There was a variation at fine spatial scale in the population 12-23 months a national mean of 18.6% (CrI 15.8%-22.6%) with the highest proportion in the South-East district of Laremanaye 20.0% (14.8-25.0). Modelled coverage at birth was 49.0% (31.2%-75.3%) for BCG, 44.8% (27.1-74.3) for DTP1, 24.7% (12.5-46.3) for DTP3 and 47.0% (30.6-71.0) for measles (MCV1). Combining coverage estimates with the modelled population at a fine spatial scale yielded 312,723 (Lower estimate 156055-409266) zero-dose children based on DTP1. Improving routine immunization will require investment in the health system as part of enhancing primary health care. The uncertainties in our estimates highlight areas that require further investigation and higher quality data to gain a better understanding of vaccination coverage., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Somatic gene therapy will be one of the most exciting practices of genetic medicine in Africa and is primed to offer a "new life" for persons living with sickle cell disease (SCD). Recently, successful gene therapy trials for SCD in the USA have sparked a ray of hope within the SCD community in Africa. However, the high cost, estimated to exceed 1.5 million USD, continues to be a major concern for many stakeholders. While affordability is a key global health equity consideration, it is equally important to reflect on other ethical, legal and social issues (ELSIs) that may impact the responsible implementation of gene therapy for SCD in Africa. These include informed consent comprehension, risk of therapeutic misestimation and optimistic bias; priorities for SCD therapy trials; dearth of ethical and regulatory oversight for gene therapy in many African countries; identifying a favourable risk-benefit ratio; criteria for the selection of trial participants; decisional conflict in consent; standards of care; bounded justice; and genetic tourism. Given these ELSIs, we suggest that researchers, pharma, funders, global health agencies, ethics committees, science councils and SCD patient support/advocacy groups should work together to co-develop: (1) patient-centric governance for gene therapy in Africa, (2) public engagement and education materials, and (3) decision making toolkits for trial participants. It is also critical to establish harmonised ethical and regulatory frameworks for gene therapy in Africa, and for global health agencies to accelerate access to basic care for SCD in Africa, while simultaneously strengthening capacity for gene therapy., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: The Banalia health zone in the Democratic Republic of Congo reported a meningitis epidemic in 2021 that evolved outside the epidemic season. We assessed the effects of the meningitis epidemic response., Methods: The standard case definition was used to identify cases. Care was provided to 2651 in-patients, with 8% of them laboratory tested, and reactive vaccination was conducted. To assess the effects of reactive vaccination and treatment with ceftriaxone, a statistical analysis was performed., Results: Overall, 2662 suspected cases of meningitis with 205 deaths were reported. The highest number of cases occurred in the 30-39 years age group (927; 38.5%). Ceftriaxone contributed to preventing deaths with a case fatality rate that decreased from 70.4% before to 7.7% after ceftriaxone was introduced ( p = 0.001). Neisseria meningitidis W was isolated, accounting for 47/57 (82%), of which 92% of the strains belonged to the clonal complex 11. Reactive vaccination of individuals in Banalia aged 1-19 years with a meningococcal multivalent conjugate (ACWY) vaccine (Menactra ® ) coverage of 104.6% resulted in an 82% decline in suspected meningitis cases (incidence rate ratio, 0.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.80; p = 0.041)., Conclusion: Despite late detection (two months) and reactive vaccination four months after crossing the epidemic threshold, interventions implemented in Banalia contributed to the control of the epidemic.

Three months after the first shipment of RTS,S1/AS01 vaccines, Cameroon started, on 22 January 2024, to roll out malaria vaccines in 42 districts among the most at risk for malaria. Cameroon adopted and implemented the World Health Organization (WHO) malaria vaccine readiness assessment tool to monitor the implementation of preintroduction activities at the district and national levels. One week before the start of the vaccine rollout, overall readiness was estimated at 89% at a national level with two out of the five components of readiness assessment surpassing 95% of performance (vaccine, cold chain and logistics and training) and three components between 80% and 95% (planning, monitoring and supervision, and advocacy, social mobilisation and communication). 'Vaccine, cold chain and logistics' was the component with the highest number of districts recording below 80% readiness. The South-West and North-West, two regions with a high level of insecurity, were the regions with the highest number of districts that recorded a readiness performance below 80% in the five components. To monitor progress in vaccine rollout daily, Cameroon piloted a system for capturing immunisation data by vaccination session coupled with an interactive dashboard using the R Shiny platform. In addition to displaying data on vaccine uptake, this dashboard allows the generation of the monthly immunisation report for all antigens, ensuring linkage to the regular immunisation data system based on the end-of-month reporting through District Health Information Software 2. Such a hybrid system complies with the malaria vaccine rollout principle of full integration into routine immunisation coupled with strengthened management of operations., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© World Health Organization 2024. Licensee BMJ.)

Objectives: NTDs historically receive less attention than other diseases in the same regions. Recent gap analyses revealed notable shortcomings despite NTD elimination progress. This systematic scoping review was conducted to understand NTD control, elimination, and eradication efforts in the WHO African region over the last 30 years., Methods: Peer-reviewed publications from PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases related to NTD control, elimination, and eradication in the WHO African Region from 1990 to 2022 were reviewed. Included articles were categorized based on NTD; study location, type, and period; and topic areas. Technical and guidance documents from WHO, UN, partner, and academic/research institutions were reviewed. Country-specific multi-year NTD master plans were documented., Results: Four hundred eighty peer-reviewed articles, six Cochrane reviews, and 134 technical reports were included. MDA and non-interventional/survey-related studies were common topics. Lymphatic filariasis, trachoma, schistosomiasis, and onchocerciasis were the most frequently studied NTDs. Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Nigeria were the most represented countries; multi-country studies were limited., Conclusion: The review highlights progress made in NTD control, elimination, and eradication efforts in the WHO African Region and can inform national/regional strategies. Disease and geographical disparities were evident, warranting focus and research in certain countries. A standardized approach to NTD control programs is needed for sustained progress., Funding: There was no funding source for this study., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Cameroon introduced the malaria vaccine in its routine immunization program on 22 January 2024 in the 42 districts out of 200 that are among the most at risk of malaria. A cross-sectional analysis of the data on key vaccine events in the introduction roadmap and the vaccine uptake during the first 30 days was conducted. In addition to available gray literature related to the introduction of the malaria vaccine, data on the malaria vaccine uptake by vaccination session, collected through a digital platform, were analyzed. A total of 1893 reports were received from 22 January 2024 to 21 February 2024 from 766 health facilities (84% of overall completeness). Two regions out of ten recorded less than 80% completeness. As of 21 February 2024, 13,811 children had received the first dose of the malaria vaccine, including 7124 girls (51.6%) and 6687 boys (48.4%). In total, 36% of the children were vaccinated through outreach sessions, while 61.5% were vaccinated through sessions in fixed posts. The overall monthly immunization coverage with the first dose was 37%. Early results have shown positive attitudes towards and acceptance of malaria vaccines. Suboptimal completeness of data reporting and a low coverage highlight persistent gaps and challenges in the vaccine rollout.

Most countries in Africa deployed digital solutions to monitor progress in rolling out COVID-19 vaccines. A rapid assessment of existing data systems for COVID-19 vaccines in the African region was conducted between May and July 2022, in 23 countries. Data were collected through interviews with key informants, identified among senior staff within Ministries of Health, using a semi-structured electronic questionnaire. At vaccination sites, individual data were collected in paper-based registers in five countries (21.7%), in an electronic registry in two countries (8.7%), and in the remaining 16 countries (69.6%) using a combination of paper-based and electronic registries. Of the 18 countries using client-based digital registries, 11 (61%) deployed the District Health Information System 2 Tracker, and seven (39%), a locally developed platform. The mean percentage of individual data transcribed in the electronic registries was 61% ± 36% standard deviation. Unreliable Internet coverage (100% of countries), non-payment of data clerks' incentives (89%), and lack of electronic devices (89%) were the main reasons for the suboptimal functioning of digital systems quoted by key informants. It is critical for investments made and experience acquired in deploying electronic platforms for COVID-19 vaccines to be leveraged to strengthen routine immunization data management.

Data from the WHO and UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) 2022 revision were analyzed to assess the status of routine immunization in the WHO African Region disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, coverage for the first and third doses of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP1 and DTP3, respectively) and the first dose of the measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in the region was estimated at 80%, 72% and 69%, respectively (all below the 2019 level). Only 13 of the 47 countries (28%) achieved the global target coverage of 90% or above with DTP3 in 2022. From 2019 to 2022, 28.7 million zero-dose children were recorded (19.0% of the target population). Ten countries in the region accounted for 80.3% of all zero-dose children, including the four most populated countries. Reported administrative coverage greater than WUENIC-reported coverage was found in 19 countries, highlighting routine immunization data quality issues. The WHO African Region has not yet recovered from COVID-19 disruptions to routine immunization. It is critical for governments to ensure that processes are in place to prioritize investments for restoring immunization services, catching up on the vaccination of zero-dose and under-vaccinated children and improving data quality.

This manuscript describes the process and impact of strengthening the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO)'s COVID-19 vaccination information system. This system plays a critical role in tracking vaccination coverage, guiding resource allocation and supporting vaccination campaign roll-out for countries in the African region. Recognising existing data management issues, including complex reporting prone to human error, compromised data quality and underutilisation of collected data, WHO AFRO introduced significant system improvements during the COVID-19 pandemic. These improvements include shifting from an Excel-based to an online Azure-based data collection system, automating data processing and validation, and expansion of collected data. These changes have led to improvements in data quality and quantity including a decrease in data non-validity, missingness, and record duplication, and expansion of data collection forms to include a greater number of data fields, offering a more comprehensive understanding of vaccination efforts. Finally, the creation of accessible information products-including an interactive public dashboard, a weekly data pack and a public monthly bulletin-has improved data use and reach to relevant partners. These resources provide crucial insights into the region's vaccination progress at national and subnational levels, thereby enabling data-driven decision-making to improve programme performance. Overall, the strengthening of the WHO AFRO COVID-19 vaccination information system can serve as a model for similar efforts in other WHO regions and contexts. The impact of system strengthening on data quality demonstrated here underscores the vital role of robust data collection, capacity building and management systems in achieving high-quality data on vaccine distribution and coverage. Continued investment in information systems is essential for effective and equitable public health efforts., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© World Health Organization 2024. Licensee BMJ.)

Early warning and response are key to tackle emerging and acute public health risks globally. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) has implemented a robust approach to public health intelligence (PHI) for the global detection, verification and risk assessment of acute public health threats. WHO's PHI operations are underpinned by the International Health Regulations (2005), which require that countries strengthen surveillance efforts, and assess, notify and verify events that may constitute a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). PHI activities at WHO are conducted systematically at WHO's headquarters and all six regional offices continuously, throughout every day of the year. We describe four interlinked steps; detection, verification, risk assessment, and reporting and dissemination. For PHI operations, a diverse and interdisciplinary workforce is needed. Overall, PHI is a key feature of the global health architecture and will only become more prominent as the world faces increasing public health threats., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Hamblion et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Competing Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is one of the leading causes of cirrhosis and liver cancer. In 2019, approximately 1.5 million persons newly acquired chronic HBV infection; among these, 990,000 (66%) were in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region (AFR). Most chronic HBV infections are acquired through mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) or during early childhood, and approximately two thirds of these infections occur in AFR. In 2016, the World Health Assembly endorsed the goal of elimination of mother-to-child transmission (EMTCT) of HBV, documented by ≥90% coverage with both a timely hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) birth dose (HepB-BD) and 3 infant doses of HepB (HepB3), and ≤0.1% hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence among children aged ≤5 years. In 2016, the WHO African Regional Committee endorsed targets for a 30% reduction in incidence (≤2% HBsAg seroprevalence in children aged ≤5 years) and ≥90% HepB3 coverage by 2020. By 2021, all 47 countries in the region provided HepB3 to infants beginning at age 6 weeks, and 14 countries (30%) provided HepB-BD. By December 2021, 16 (34%) countries achieved ≥90% HepB3 coverage, and only two (4%) achieved ≥90% timely HepB-BD coverage. Eight countries (17%) conducted nationwide serosurveys among children born after the introduction of HepB to assess HBsAg seroprevalence: six countries had achieved ≤2% seroprevalence, but none had achieved ≤0.1% seroprevalence among children. The development of immunization recovery plans following the COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to accelerate progress toward hepatitis B control and EMTCT, including introducing HepB-BD and increasing coverage with timely HepB-BD and HepB3 vaccination. Representative HBsAg serosurveys among children and a regional verification body for EMTCT of HBV will be needed to monitor progress., Competing Interests: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

Although Africa is home to about 14% of the global population (1.14 billion people), it is growing three times faster than the global average [1]. The continent carries a high burden of disease, but there has been real progress in eradication, elimination, and control since 2015. Examples are the eradication of wild polio in 2020 [2] and the eradication or elimination of neglected tropical diseases, such as dracunculiasis in Kenya in 2018; Human African trypanosomiasis in Togo in 2022; and trachoma in Togo, Gambia, Ghana, and Malawi in 2022 [3]. New HIV infections reduced by 44% in 2021 compared to 2010 [4], and in 2021 the African region passed the 2020 milestone of the End TB Strategy, with a 22% reduction in new infections compared with 2015 [5].

This study summarizes progress made in rolling out COVID-19 vaccinations in the African region in 2022, and analyzes factors associated with vaccination coverage. Data on vaccine uptake reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Africa by Member States between January 2021 and December 2022, as well as publicly available health and socio-economic data, were used. A negative binomial regression was performed to analyze factors associated with vaccination coverage in 2022. As of the end of 2022, 308.1 million people had completed the primary vaccination series, representing 26.4% of the region's population, compared to 6.3% at the end of 2021. The percentage of health workers with complete primary series was 40.9%. Having carried out at least one high volume mass vaccination campaign in 2022 was associated with high vaccination coverage (β = 0.91, p < 0.0001), while higher WHO funding spent per person vaccinated in 2022 was correlated with lower vaccination coverage (β = -0.26, p < 0.03). All countries should expand efforts to integrate COVID-19 vaccinations into routine immunization and primary health care, and increase investment in vaccine demand generation during the transition period that follows the acute phase of the pandemic.

The early termination of the Accelerating the Sustainable Control and Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (Ascend) programme by the UK government in June 2021 was a bitter blow to countries in East and West Africa where no alternative source of funding existed. Here we assess the potential impact the cuts may have had if alternative funding had not been made available by new development partners and outline new strategies developed by affected countries to mitigate current and future disruptions to neglected tropical disease control programmes., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.)

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) presented a unique opportunity for the World Health Organization (WHO) to utilise public health intelligence (PHI) for pandemic response. WHO systematically captured mainly unstructured information (e.g. media articles, listservs, community-based reporting) for public health intelligence purposes. WHO used the Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system as one of the information sources for PHI. The processes and scope for PHI were adapted as the pandemic evolved and tailored to regional response needs. During the early months of the pandemic, media monitoring complemented official case and death reporting through the International Health Regulations mechanism and triggered alerts. As the pandemic evolved, PHI activities prioritised identifying epidemiological trends to supplement the information available through indicator-based surveillance reported to WHO. The PHI scope evolved over time to include vaccine introduction, emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, unusual clinical manifestations and upsurges in cases, hospitalisation and death incidences at subnational levels. Triaging the unprecedented high volume of information challenged surveillance activities but was managed by collaborative information sharing. The evolution of PHI activities using multiple sources in WHO's response to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the future directions in which PHI methodologies could be developed and used.

In October 2021, the WHO published an ambitious strategy to ensure that all countries had vaccinated 40% of their population by the end of 2021 and 70% by mid-2022. The end of June 2022 marks 18 months of implementation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination in the African region and provides an opportunity to look back and think ahead about COVID-19 vaccine set targets, demand and delivery strategies. As of 26 June 2022 two countries in the WHO African region have achieved this target (Mauritius and Seychelles) and seven are on track, having vaccinated between 40% and 69% of their population. By the 26 June 2022, seven among the 20 countries that had less than 10% of people fully vaccinated at the end of January 2022, have surpassed 15% of people fully vaccinated at the end of June 2022. This includes five targeted countries, which are being supported by the WHO Regional Office for Africa through the Multi-Partners' Country Support Team Initiative. As we enter the second semester of 2022, a window of opportunity has opened to provide new impetus to COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the African region guided by the four principles: Scale-up, Transition, Consolidation and Communication. Member States need to build on progress made to ensure that this impetus is not lost and that the African region does not remain the least vaccinated global region, as economies open up and world priorities change.

Emerging infectious diseases are a growing threat in sub-Saharan African countries, but the human and technical capacity to quickly respond to outbreaks remains limited. Here, we describe the experience and lessons learned from a joint project with the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO) to support the sub-Saharan African COVID-19 response.In June 2020, WHO AFRO contracted a number of consultants to reinforce the COVID-19 response in member states by providing actionable epidemiological analysis. Given the urgency of the situation and the magnitude of work required, we recruited a worldwide network of field experts, academics and students in the areas of public health, data science and social science to support the effort. Most analyses were performed on a merged line list of COVID-19 cases using a reverse engineering model (line listing built using data extracted from national situation reports shared by countries with the Regional Office for Africa as per the IHR (2005) obligations). The data analysis platform The Renku Project ( https://renkulab.io ) provided secure data storage and permitted collaborative coding.Over a period of 6 months, 63 contributors from 32 nations (including 17 African countries) participated in the project. A total of 45 in-depth country-specific epidemiological reports and data quality reports were prepared for 28 countries. Spatial transmission and mortality risk indices were developed for 23 countries. Text and video-based training modules were developed to integrate and mentor new members. The team also began to develop EpiGraph Hub, a web application that automates the generation of reports similar to those we created, and includes more advanced data analyses features (e.g. mathematical models, geospatial analyses) to deliver real-time, actionable results to decision-makers.Within a short period, we implemented a global collaborative approach to health data management and analyses to advance national responses to health emergencies and outbreaks. The interdisciplinary team, the hands-on training and mentoring, and the participation of local researchers were key to the success of this initiative., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objectives: We conducted a review of intra-action review (IAR) reports of the national response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. We highlight best practices and challenges and offer perspectives for the future., Design: A thematic analysis across 10 preparedness and response domains, namely, governance, leadership, and coordination; planning and monitoring; risk communication and community engagement; surveillance, rapid response, and case investigation; infection prevention and control; case management; screening and monitoring at points of entry; national laboratory system; logistics and supply chain management; and maintaining essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic., Setting: All countries in the WHO African Region were eligible for inclusion in the study. National IAR reports submitted by March 2021 were analysed., Results: We retrieved IAR reports from 18 African countries. The COVID-19 pandemic response in African countries has relied on many existing response systems such as laboratory systems, surveillance systems for previous outbreaks of highly infectious diseases and a logistics management information system. These best practices were backed by strong political will. The key challenges included low public confidence in governments, inadequate adherence to infection prevention and control measures, shortages of personal protective equipment, inadequate laboratory capacity, inadequate contact tracing, poor supply chain and logistics management systems, and lack of training of key personnel at national and subnational levels., Conclusion: These findings suggest that African countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic was prompt and may have contributed to the lower cases and deaths in the region compared with countries in other regions. The IARs demonstrate that many technical areas still require immediate improvement to guide decisions in subsequent waves or future outbreaks., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AT, JO, MS, EOM, BLH, OPCR, DY, MN, AM, FMB, ABD, RKW, CM, HKN, MT, AO, BB, LNM, INC, FS, SC, BI, NN, ZY and ASG are WHO staff members and have supported countries to conduct IARs but were not involved in the writing of country IAR reports included in the analysis. CI and CSW have no competing interests to declare., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: as of end 2021, ten different vaccines have received Emergency use listing by the World Health Organisation. The vaccination response to the COVID pandemic started in February 2021 in the WHO African Region. WHO proposed a national coverage target of fully vaccinated population of 40% by the end of December 2021. This manuscript attempts to review the progress in the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination in the African Region., Methods: we analysed the aggregate COVID-19 vaccine uptake and utilization data from the immunisation monitoring databases set up by countries and shared with the WHO Regional Office for Africa., Results: as of 31 December 2021, a total of 340,663,156 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were received in 46 countries in the African Region. The weekly average doses administered was 4,069,934 throughout the year. In the same period, a total of 114,498,980 persons received at least one dose, and 71,862,108 people were fully vaccinated, amounting to 6.6% of the total population in the Region. Only 5 countries attained the target of 40% full vaccination coverage. Disaggregated information was not available from all countries on the number of persons vaccinated by gender, and according to the priority population groupings. A total of 102,046 cases of adverse events following immunisation (AEFIs) were reported among which 6,260 (6.1%) were labelled as severe AEFIs., Conclusion: COVID-19 vaccination coverage remains very low in the African Region, with all but 5 countries missing the 40% coverage target as of December 2021. Countries, donors and partners should mobilise political will and resources towards the attainment of the coverage targets. Countries will need to implement vaccination efforts using tailored approaches to reach unreached populations. The reporting gaps indicate the need to invest on efforts to improve the capture, analysis and use of more granular program data., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: Balcha Masresha et al.)

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, sub-Saharan African countries experienced comparatively lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections and related deaths than in other parts of the world, the reasons for which remain unclear. Yet, there was also considerable variation between countries. Here, we explored potential drivers of this variation among 46 of the 47 WHO African region Member States in a cross-sectional study. We described five indicators of early COVID-19 spread and severity for each country as of 29 November 2020: delay in detection of the first case, length of the early epidemic growth period, cumulative and peak attack rates and crude case fatality ratio (CFR). We tested the influence of 13 pre-pandemic and pandemic response predictor variables on the country-level variation in the spread and severity indicators using multivariate statistics and regression analysis. We found that wealthier African countries, with larger tourism industries and older populations, had higher peak (p<0.001) and cumulative (p<0.001) attack rates, and lower CFRs (p=0.021). More urbanised countries also had higher attack rates (p<0.001 for both indicators). Countries applying more stringent early control policies experienced greater delay in detection of the first case (p<0.001), but the initial propagation of the virus was slower in relatively wealthy, touristic African countries (p=0.023). Careful and early implementation of strict government policies were likely pivotal to delaying the initial phase of the pandemic, but did not have much impact on other indicators of spread and severity. An over-reliance on disruptive containment measures in more resource-limited contexts is neither effective nor sustainable. We thus urge decision-makers to prioritise the reduction of resource-based health disparities, and surveillance and response capacities in particular, to ensure global resilience against future threats to public health and economic stability., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is an urgent public health crisis. Estimated models projected over 150,000 deaths and 4,600,000 hospitalizations in the first year of the disease in the absence of adequate interventions. Therefore, electronic contact tracing and surveillance have critical roles in decreasing COVID-19 transmission; yet, if not conducted properly, these methods can rapidly become a bottleneck for synchronized data collection, case detection, and case management. While the continent is currently reporting relatively low COVID-19 cases, digitized contact tracing mechanisms and surveillance reporting are necessary for standardizing real-time reporting of new chains of infection in order to quickly reverse growing trends and halt the pandemic., Objective: This paper aims to describe a COVID-19 contact tracing smartphone app that includes health facility surveillance with a real-time visualization platform. The app was developed by the AFRO (African Regional Office) GIS (geographic information system) Center, in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) emergency preparedness and response team. The app was developed through the expertise and experience gained from numerous digital apps that had been developed for polio surveillance and immunization via the WHO's polio program in the African region., Methods: We repurposed the GIS infrastructures of the polio program and the database structure that relies on mobile data collection that is built on the Open Data Kit. We harnessed the technology for visualization of real-time COVID-19 data using dynamic dashboards built on Power BI, ArcGIS Online, and Tableau. The contact tracing app was developed with the pragmatic considerations of COVID-19 peculiarities. The app underwent testing by field surveillance colleagues to meet the requirements of linking contacts to cases and monitoring chains of transmission. The health facility surveillance app was developed from the knowledge and assessment of models of surveillance at the health facility level for other diseases of public health importance. The Integrated Supportive Supervision app was added as an appendage to the pre-existing paper-based surveillance form. These two mobile apps collected information on cases and contact tracing, alongside alert information on COVID-19 reports at the health facility level; the information was linked to visualization platforms in order to enable actionable insights., Results: The contact tracing app and platform were piloted between April and June 2020; they were then put to use in Zimbabwe, Benin, Cameroon, Uganda, Nigeria, and South Sudan, and their use has generated some palpable successes with respect to COVID-19 surveillance. However, the COVID-19 health facility-based surveillance app has been used more extensively, as it has been used in 27 countries in the region., Conclusions: In light of the above information, this paper was written to give an overview of the app and visualization platform development, app and platform deployment, ease of replicability, and preliminary outcome evaluation of their use in the field. From a regional perspective, integration of contact tracing and surveillance data into one platform provides the AFRO with a more accurate method of monitoring countries' efforts in their response to COVID-19, while guiding public health decisions and the assessment of risk of COVID-19., (©Godwin Ubong Akpan, Isah Mohammed Bello, Kebba Touray, Reuben Ngofa, Daniel Rasheed Oyaole, Sylvester Maleghemi, Marie Babona, Chanda Chikwanda, Alain Poy, Franck Mboussou, Opeayo Ogundiran, Benido Impouma, Richard Mihigo, Nda Konan Michel Yao, Johnson Muluh Ticha, Jude Tuma, Hani Farouk A Mohamed, Kehinde Kanmodi, Nonso Ephraim Ejiofor, John Kapoi Kipterer, Casimir Manengu, Francis Kasolo, Vincent Seaman, Pascal Mkanda. Originally published in JMIR mHealth and uHealth (https://mhealth.jmir.org), 17.03.2022.)

The geographic and economic characteristics unique to island nations create a different set of conditions for, and responses to, the spread of a pandemic compared with those of mainland countries. Here, we aimed to describe the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the potential conditions and responses affecting variation in the burden of infections and severe disease burden, across the six island nations of the WHO's Africa region: Cabo Verde, Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, São Tomé e Príncipe and Seychelles. We analysed the publicly available COVID-19 data on confirmed cases and deaths from the beginning of the pandemic through 29 November 2020. To understand variation in the course of the pandemic in these nations, we explored differences in their economic statuses, healthcare expenditures and facilities, age and sex distributions, leading health risk factors, densities of the overall and urban populations and the main industries in these countries. We also reviewed the non-pharmaceutical response measures implemented nationally. We found that the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection was reduced by strict early limitations on movement and biased towards nations where detection capacity was higher, while the burden of severe COVID-19 was skewed towards countries that invested less in healthcare and those that had older populations and greater prevalence of key underlying health risk factors. These findings highlight the need for Africa's island nations to invest more in healthcare and in local testing capacity to reduce the need for reliance on border closures that have dire consequences for their economies., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

The World Health Organization African region recorded its first laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases on 25 February 2020. Two months later, all the 47 countries of the region were affected. The first anniversary of the pandemic occurred in a changed context with the emergence of new variants of concern (VOC) and growing COVID-19 fatigue. This study describes the epidemiological trajectory of COVID-19 in the region, summarises public health and social measures (PHSM) implemented and discusses their impact on the pandemic trajectory. As of 24 February 2021, the African region accounted for 2.5% of cases and 2.9% of deaths reported globally. Of the 13 countries that submitted detailed line listing of cases, the proportion of cases with at least one co-morbid condition was estimated at 3.3% of all cases. Hypertension, diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were the most common comorbid conditions, accounting for 11.1%, 7.1% and 5.0% of cases with comorbidities, respectively. Overall, the case fatality ratio (CFR) in patients with comorbid conditions was higher than in patients without comorbid conditions: 5.5% vs. 1.0% (P < 0.0001). Countries started to implement lockdown measures in early March 2020. This contributed to slow the spread of the pandemic at the early stage while the gradual ease of lockdowns from 20 April 2020 resulted in an upsurge. The second wave of the pandemic, which started in November 2020, coincided with the emergence of the new variants of concern. Only 0.08% of the population from six countries received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. It is critical to not only learn from the past 12 months to improve the effectiveness of the current response but also to start preparing the health systems for subsequent waves of the current pandemic and future pandemics.

As of 03 January 2021, the WHO African region is the least affected by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, accounting for only 2.4% of cases and deaths reported globally. However, concerns abound about whether the number of cases and deaths reported from the region reflect the true burden of the disease and how the monitoring of the pandemic trajectory can inform response measures.We retrospectively estimated four key epidemiological parameters (the total number of cases, the number of missed cases, the detection rate and the cumulative incidence) using the COVID-19 prevalence calculator tool developed by Resolve to Save Lives. We used cumulative cases and deaths reported during the period 25 February to 31 December 2020 for each WHO Member State in the region as well as population data to estimate the four parameters of interest. The estimated number of confirmed cases in 42 countries out of 47 of the WHO African region included in this study was 13 947 631 [95% confidence interval (CI): 13 334 620-14 635 502] against 1 889 512 cases reported, representing 13.5% of overall detection rate (range: 4.2% in Chad, 43.9% in Guinea). The cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was estimated at 1.38% (95% CI: 1.31%-1.44%), with South Africa the highest [14.5% (95% CI: 13.9%-15.2%)] and Mauritius [0.1% (95% CI: 0.099%-0.11%)] the lowest. The low detection rate found in most countries of the WHO African region suggests the need to strengthen SARS-CoV-2 testing capacities and adjusting testing strategies.

Introduction: Since sex-based biological and gender factors influence COVID-19 mortality, we wanted to investigate the difference in mortality rates between women and men in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)., Method: We included 69 580 cases of COVID-19, stratified by sex (men: n=43 071; women: n=26 509) and age (0-39 years: n=41 682; 40-59 years: n=20 757; 60+ years: n=7141), from 20 member nations of the WHO African region until 1 September 2020. We computed the SSA-specific and country-specific case fatality rates (CFRs) and sex-specific CFR differences across various age groups, using a Bayesian approach., Results: A total of 1656 deaths (2.4% of total cases reported) were reported, with men accounting for 70.5% of total deaths. In SSA, women had a lower CFR than men (mean [Formula: see text] = -0.9%; 95% credible intervals (CIs) -1.1% to -0.6%). The mean CFR estimates increased with age, with the sex-specific CFR differences being significant among those aged 40 years or more (40-59 age group: mean [Formula: see text] = -0.7%; 95% CI -1.1% to -0.2%; 60+ years age group: mean [Formula: see text] = -3.9%; 95% CI -5.3% to -2.4%). At the country level, 7 of the 20 SSA countries reported significantly lower CFRs among women than men overall. Moreover, corresponding to the age-specific datasets, significantly lower CFRs in women than men were observed in the 60+ years age group in seven countries and 40-59 years age group in one country., Conclusions: Sex and age are important predictors of COVID-19 mortality globally. Countries should prioritise the collection and use of sex-disaggregated data so as to design public health interventions and ensure that policies promote a gender-sensitive public health response., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Experience gained from responding to major outbreaks may have influenced the early coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response in several countries across Africa. We retrospectively assessed whether Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three West African countries at the epicentre of the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak, leveraged the lessons learned in responding to COVID-19 following the World Health Organization's (WHO) declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We found relatively lower incidence rates across the three countries compared to many parts of the globe. Time to case reporting and laboratory confirmation also varied, with Guinea and Liberia reporting significant delays compared to Sierra Leone. Most of the selected readiness measures were instituted before confirmation of the first case and response measures were initiated rapidly after the outbreak confirmation. We conclude that the rapid readiness and response measures instituted by the three countries can be attributed to their lessons learned from the devastating Ebola outbreak, although persistent health systems weaknesses and the unique nature of COVID-19 continue to challenge control efforts.

Introduction: Few data on the COVID-19 epidemiological characteristics among the pediatric population in Africa exists. This paper examines the age and sex distribution of the morbidity and mortality rate in children with COVID-19 and compares it to the adult population in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries., Methods: A merge line listing dataset shared by countries within the Regional Office for Africa was analyzed. Patients diagnosed within 1 March and 1 September 2020 with a confirmed positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed. Children's data were stratified into three age groups: 0-4 years, 5-11 years, and 12-17 years, while adults were combined. The cumulative incidence of cases, its medians, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated., Results: 9% of the total confirmed cases and 2.4% of the reported deaths were pediatric cases. The 12-17 age group in all 15 countries showed the highest cumulative incidence proportion in children. Adults had a higher case incidence per 100,000 people than children., Conclusion: The cases and deaths within the children's population were smaller than the adult population. These differences may reflect biases in COVID-19 testing protocols and reporting implemented by countries, highlighting the need for more extensive investigation and focus on the effects of COVID-19 in children., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This study analysed the reported incidence of COVID-19 and associated epidemiological and socio-economic factors in the WHO African region. Data from COVID-19 confirmed cases and SARS-CoV-2 tests reported to the WHO by Member States between 25 February and 31 December 2020 and publicly available health and socio-economic data were analysed using univariate and multivariate binomial regression models. The overall cumulative incidence was 1846 cases per million population. Cape Verde (21 350 per million), South Africa (18 060 per million), Namibia (9840 per million), Eswatini (8151 per million) and Botswana (6044 per million) recorded the highest cumulative incidence, while Benin (260 per million), Democratic Republic of Congo (203 per million), Niger (141 cases per million), Chad (133 per million) and Burundi (62 per million) recorded the lowest. Increasing percentage of urban population (β = -0.011, P = 0.04) was associated with low cumulative incidence, while increasing number of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 tests performed per 10 000 population (β = 0.0006, P = 0.006) and the proportion of population aged 15-64 years (adjusted β = 0.174, P < 0.0001) were associated with high COVID-19 cumulative incidence. With limited testing capacities and overwhelmed health systems, these findings highlight the need for countries to increase and decentralise testing capacities and adjust testing strategies to target most at-risk populations.

The rapid transmissibility of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 causing coronavirus disease-2019, requires timely dissemination of information and public health responses, with all 47 countries of the WHO African Region simultaneously facing significant risk, in contrast to the usual highly localised infectious disease outbreaks. This demanded a different approach to information management and an adaptive information strategy was implemented, focusing on data collection and management, reporting and analysis at the national and regional levels. This approach used frugal innovation, building on tools and technologies that are commonly used, and well understood; as well as developing simple, practical, highly functional and agile solutions that could be rapidly and remotely implemented, and flexible enough to be recalibrated and adapted as required. While the approach was successful in its aim of allowing the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO) to gather surveillance and epidemiological data, several challenges were encountered that affected timeliness and quality of data captured and reported by the member states, showing that strengthening data systems and digital capacity, and encouraging openness and data sharing are an important component of health system strengthening.

Epidemic intelligence activities are undertaken by the WHO Regional Office for Africa to support member states in early detection and response to outbreaks to prevent the international spread of diseases. We reviewed epidemic intelligence activities conducted by the organisation from 2017 to 2020, processes used, key results and how lessons learned can be used to strengthen preparedness, early detection and rapid response to outbreaks that may constitute a public health event of international concern. A total of 415 outbreaks were detected and notified to WHO, using both indicator-based and event-based surveillance. Media monitoring contributed to the initial detection of a quarter of all events reported. The most frequent outbreaks detected were vaccine-preventable diseases, followed by food-and-water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases and viral haemorrhagic fevers. Rapid risk assessments generated evidence and provided the basis for WHO to trigger operational processes to provide rapid support to member states to respond to outbreaks with a potential for international spread. This is crucial in assisting member states in their obligations under the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). Member states in the region require scaled-up support, particularly in preventing recurrent outbreaks of infectious diseases and enhancing their event-based surveillance capacities with automated tools and processes.

Successive waves of COVID-19 transmission have led to exponential increases in new infections globally. In this study, we have applied a decision-making tool to assess the risk of continuing transmission to inform decisions on tailored public health and social measures (PHSM) using data on cases and deaths reported by Member States to the WHO Regional Office for Africa as of 31 December 2020. Transmission classification and health system capacity were used to assess the risk level of each country to guide implementation and adjustments to PHSM. Two countries out of 46 assessed met the criteria for sporadic transmission, one for clusters of cases, and 43 (93.5%) for community transmission (CT) including three with uncontrolled disease incidence (Eswatini, Namibia and South Africa). Health system response's capacities were assessed as adequate in two countries (4.3%), moderate in 13 countries (28.3%) and limited in 31 countries (64.4%). The risk level, calculated as a combination of transmission classification and health system response's capacities, was assessed at level 0 in one country (2.1%), level 1 in two countries (4.3%), level 2 in 11 countries (23.9%) and level 3 in 32 (69.6%) countries. The scale of severity ranged from 0 to 4, with 0 the lowest. CT coupled with limited response capacity resulted in a level 3 risk assessment in most countries. Countries at level 3 should be considered as priority focus for additional assistance, in order to prevent the risk rising to level 4, which may necessitate enforcing hard and costly lockdown measures. The large number of countries at level 3 indicates the need for an effective risk management system to be used as a basis for adjusting PHSM at national and sub-national levels.

Mapping is a prerequisite for effective implementation of interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Before the accelerated World Health Organization (WHO)/Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) NTD Mapping Project was initiated in 2014, mapping efforts in many countries were frequently carried out in an ad hoc and nonstandardized fashion. In 2013, there were at least 2,200 different districts (of the 4,851 districts in the WHO African region) that still required mapping, and in many of these districts, more than one disease needed to be mapped. During its 3-year duration from January 2014 through the end of 2016, the project carried out mapping surveys for one or more NTDs in at least 2,500 districts in 37 African countries. At the end of 2016, most (90%) of the 4,851 districts had completed the WHO-required mapping surveys for the five targeted Preventive Chemotherapy (PC)-NTDs, and the impact of this accelerated WHO/AFRO NTD Mapping Project proved to be much greater than just the detailed mapping results themselves. Indeed, the AFRO Mapping Project dramatically energized and empowered national NTD programs, attracted donor support for expanding these programs, and developed both a robust NTD mapping database and data portal. By clarifying the prevalence and burden of NTDs, the project provided not only the metrics and technical framework for guiding and tracking program implementation and success but also the research opportunities for developing improved diagnostic and epidemiologic sampling tools for all 5 PC-NTDs-lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, and trachoma.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is an essential component of public health emergency response. In the WHO African region (WHO AFRO), over 100 events are detected and responded to annually. Here we discuss the development of the M&E for COVID-19 that established a set of regional and country indicators for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic and response measures. An interdisciplinary task force used the 11 pillars of strategic preparedness and response to define a set of inputs, outputs, outcomes and impact indicators that were used to closely monitor and evaluate progress in the evolving COVID-19 response, with each pillar tailored to specific country needs. M&E data were submitted electronically and informed country profiles, detailed epidemiological reports, and situation reports. Further, 10 selected key performance indicators were tracked to monitor country progress through a bi-weekly progress scoring tool used to identify priority countries in need of additional support from WHO AFRO. Investment in M&E of health emergencies should be an integral part of efforts to strengthen national, regional and global capacities for early detection and response to threats to public health security. The development of an adaptable M&E framework for health emergencies must draw from the lessons learned throughout the COVID-19 response.

The end-of-outbreak declaration is an important step in controlling infectious disease outbreaks. Objective estimation of the confidence level that an outbreak is over is important to reduce the risk of postdeclaration flare-ups. We developed a simulation-based model with which to quantify that confidence and tested it on simulated Ebola virus disease data. We found that these confidence estimates were most sensitive to the instantaneous reproduction number, the reporting rate, and the time between the symptom onset and death or recovery of the last detected case. For Ebola virus disease, our results suggested that the current World Health Organization criterion of 42 days since the recovery or death of the last detected case is too short and too sensitive to underreporting. Therefore, we suggest a shift to a preliminary end-of-outbreak declaration after 63 days from the symptom onset day of the last detected case. This preliminary declaration should still be followed by 90 days of enhanced surveillance to capture potential flare-ups of cases, after which the official end of the outbreak can be declared. This sequence corresponds to more than 95% confidence that an outbreak is over in most of the scenarios examined. Our framework is generic and therefore could be adapted to estimate end-of-outbreak confidence for other infectious diseases., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

Background: The WHO African region frequently experiences outbreaks and epidemics of infectious diseases often exacerbated by weak health systems and infrastructure, late detection, and ineffective outbreak response. To address this, the WHO Regional Office for Africa developed and began implementing the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy in 1998., Objectives: This systematic review aims to document the identified successes and challenges surrounding the implementation of IDSR in the region available in published literature to highlight areas for prioritization, further research, and to inform further strengthening of IDSR implementation., Methods: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published in English and French from 1 July 2012 to 13 November 2019 was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science. Included articles focused on the WHO African region and discussed the use of IDSR strategies and implementation, assessment of IDSR strategies, or surveillance of diseases covered in the IDSR framework. Data were analyzed descriptively using Microsoft Excel and Tableau Desktop 2019., Results: The number of peer-reviewed articles discussing IDSR remained low, with 47 included articles focused on 17 countries and regional level systems. Most commonly discussed topics were data reporting (n = 39) and challenges with IDSR implementation (n = 38). Barriers to effective implementation were identified across all IDSR core and support functions assessed in this review: priority disease detection; data reporting, management, and analysis; information dissemination; laboratory functionality; and staff training. Successful implementation was noted where existing surveillance systems and infrastructure were utilized and streamlined with efforts to increase access to healthcare., Conclusions and Implications of Findings: These findings highlighted areas where IDSR is performing well and where implementation remains weak. While challenges related to IDSR implementation since the first edition of the technical guidelines were released are not novel, adequately addressing them requires sustained investments in stronger national public health capabilities, infrastructure, and surveillance processes., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Large-scale protracted outbreaks can be prevented through early detection, notification, and rapid control. We assessed trends in timeliness of detecting and responding to outbreaks in the African Region reported to the World Health Organization during 2017-2019. We computed the median time to each outbreak milestone and assessed the rates of change over time using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. We selected 296 outbreaks from 348 public reported health events and evaluated 184 for time to detection, 232 for time to notification, and 201 for time to end. Time to detection and end decreased over time, whereas time to notification increased. Multiple factors can account for these findings, including scaling up support to member states after the World Health Organization established its Health Emergencies Programme and support given to countries from donors and partners to strengthen their core capacities for meeting International Health Regulations.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges to the systematic and timely sharing of COVID-19 field data collection and management. The World Health Organization (WHO) is working with health partners on the rollout and implementation of a robust electronic field data collection platform. The delay in the deployment and rollout of this electronic platform in the WHO African Region, as a consequence of the application of large-scale public health and social measures including movement restrictions and geographical area quarantine, left a gap between data collection and management. This lead to the need to develop interim data management solutions to accurately monitor the evolution of the pandemic and support the deployment of appropriate public health interventions., Objective: The aim of this study is to review the design, development, and implementation of the COVID-19 Data Summarization and Visualization (DSV) tool as a rapidly deployable solution to fill this critical data collection gap as an interim solution., Methods: This paper reviews the processes undertaken to research and develop a tool to bridge the data collection gap between the onset of a COVID-19 outbreak and the start of data collection using a prioritized electronic platform such as Go.Data in the WHO African Region., Results: In anticipation of the implementation of a prioritized tool for field data collection, the DSV tool was deployed in 18 member states for COVID-19 outbreak data management. We highlight preliminary findings and lessons learned from the DSV tool deployment in the WHO African Region., Conclusions: We developed a rapidly deployable tool for COVID-19 data collection and visualization in the WHO African Region. The lessons drawn on this experience offer an opportunity to learn and apply these to improve future similar public health informatics initiatives in an outbreak or similar humanitarian setting, particularly in low- and middle-income countries., (©Kamran Ahmed, Muhammad Arish Bukhari, Tamayi Mlanda, Jean Paul Kimenyi, Polly Wallace, Charles Okot Lukoya, Esther L Hamblion, Benido Impouma. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.10.2020.)

Concerns have been expressed about the view point of WHO AFRO concerning research for health in the African Region. WHO AFRO considers research a critical component in the improvement of health in the Africa region. Ensuring the effectiveness of our strategies, policies and programmes requires evidence. In the context of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, WHO research interests cover key areas of the response. The WHO AFRO consider research as critical in our efforts at protecting people against health emergencies and pandemics like the COVID-19 and ensuring universal access to proven interventions. In view of this, the WHO has taken steps to strengthen capacity for research in the region. The results of these efforts may take time to manifest but will surely do as we persist in our drive, with support from our partners., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© Matshidiso Moeti et al.)

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the predictions presented here are derived using a Markov chain model, with the transition states and country specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. A risk of exposure, and vulnerability index are used to make the probabilities country specific. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon. Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea. Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest. Of the World Health Organization's 1 billion population in Africa, 22% (16%-26%) will be infected in the first year, with 37 (29 - 44) million symptomatic cases and 150 078 (82 735-189 579) deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 (3.6-5.5) million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 139 521 (81 876-167 044) would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 89 043 (52 253-106 599) critical cases requiring breathing support. The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Rapid control of cholera outbreaks is a significant challenge in overpopulated urban areas. During late-2017, Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, experienced a cholera outbreak that showed potential to spread throughout the city. A novel targeted water and hygiene response strategy was implemented to quickly stem the outbreak., Methods: We describe the first implementation of the cluster grid response strategy carried out in the community during the cholera outbreak in Kinshasa, in which response activities targeted cholera case clusters using a grid approach. Interventions focused on emergency water supply, household water treatment and safe storage, home disinfection and hygiene promotion. We also performed a preliminary community trial study to assess the temporal pattern of the outbreak before and after response interventions were implemented. Cholera surveillance databases from the Ministry of Health were analyzed to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of the outbreak using epidemic curves and maps., Results: From January 2017 to November 2018, a total of 1712 suspected cholera cases were reported in Kinshasa. During this period, the most affected health zones included Binza Météo, Limeté, Kokolo, Kintambo and Kingabwa. Following implementation of the response strategy, the weekly cholera case numbers in Binza Météo, Kintambo and Limeté decreased by an average of 57% after 2 weeks and 86% after 4 weeks. The total weekly case numbers throughout Kinshasa Province dropped by 71% 4 weeks after the peak of the outbreak., Conclusion: During the 2017-2018 period, Kinshasa experienced a sharp increase in cholera case numbers. To contain the outbreak, water supply and hygiene response interventions targeted case households, nearby neighbors and public areas in case clusters using a grid approach. Following implementation of the response, the outbreak in Kinshasa was quickly brought under control. A similar approach may be adapted to quickly interrupt cholera transmission in other urban settings.