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The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Accurate snow depth observations are critical to assess water resources. More than a billion people rely on water from snow, most of which originates in the Northern Hemisphere mountain ranges. Yet, remote sensing observations of mountain snow depth are still lacking at the large scale. Here, we show the ability of Sentinel-1 to map snow depth in the Northern Hemisphere mountains at 1 km² resolution using an empirical change detection approach. An evaluation with measurements from ~4000 sites and reanalysis data demonstrates that the Sentinel-1 retrievals capture the spatial variability between and within mountain ranges, as well as their inter-annual differences. This is showcased with the contrasting snow depths between 2017 and 2018 in the US Sierra Nevada and European Alps. With Sentinel-1 continuity ensured until 2030 and likely beyond, these findings lay a foundation for quantifying the long-term vulnerability of mountain snow-water resources to climate change.

The Asian water tower (AWT) serves as the source of 10 major Asian river systems and supports the lives of ~2 billion people. Obtaining reliable precipitation data over the AWT is a prerequisite for understanding the water cycle within this pivotal region. Here, we quantitatively reveal that the "observed" precipitation over the AWT is considerably underestimated in view of observational evidence from three water cycle components, namely, evapotranspiration, runoff, and accumulated snow. We found that three paradoxes appear if the so-called observed precipitation is corrected, namely, actual evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation, unrealistically high runoff coefficients, and accumulated snow water equivalent exceeding contemporaneous precipitation. We then explain the cause of precipitation underestimation from instrumental error caused by wind-induced gauge undercatch and the representativeness error caused by sparse-uneven gauge density and the complexity of local surface conditions. These findings require us to rethink previous results concerning the water cycle, prompting the study to discuss potential solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change modifies the water and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and the surface in mountainous regions such as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), which has shown substantial hydrological changes over the last decades, including rapid lake level variations. The ground across the QTP hosts either permafrost or is seasonally frozen, and, in this environment, the ground thermal regime influences liquid water availability, evaporation and runoff. Consequently, climate-induced changes in the ground thermal regime may contribute to variations in lake levels, but the validity of this hypothesis has yet to be established. This study focuses on the cryo-hydrology of the catchment of Lake Paiku (southern Tibet) for the 1980–2019 period. We process ERA5 data with downscaling and clustering tools (TopoSCALE, TopoSUB) to account for the spatial variability of the climate in our forcing data (Fiddes and Gruber, 2012, 2014). We use a distributed setup of the CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) to quantify thermo-hydrological changes in the ground during this period. Forcing data and simulation outputs are validated with data from a weather station, surface temperature loggers and observations of lake level variations. Our lake budget reconstruction shows that the main water input to the lake is direct precipitation (310 mmyr-1), followed by glacier runoff (280 mmyr-1) and land runoff (180 mmyr-1). However, altogether these components do not offset evaporation (860 mmyr-1). Our results show that both seasonal frozen ground and permafrost have warmed (0.17 ∘C per decade 2 m deep), increasing the availability of liquid water in the ground and the duration of seasonal thaw. Correlations with annual values suggest that both phenomena promote evaporation and runoff. Yet, ground warming drives a strong increase in subsurface runoff so that the runoff / (evaporation + runoff) ratio increases over time. This increase likely contributed to stabilizing the lake level decrease after 2010. Summer evaporation is an important energy sink, and we find active-layer deepening only where evaporation is limited. The presence of permafrost is found to promote evaporation at the expense of runoff, consistently with recent studies suggesting that a shallow active layer maintains higher water contents close to the surface. However, this relationship seems to be climate dependent, and we show that a colder and wetter climate produces the opposite effect. Although the present study was performed at the catchment scale, we suggest that this ambivalent influence of permafrost may help to understand the contrasting lake level variations observed between the south and north of the QTP, opening new perspectives for future investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]