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We investigate thermally induced surface deformation in geothermal systems. To define source mechanisms at depth, we assess the mechanical process of subsurface deformation by assuming a spherically cooled fractured reservoir in an infinite medium and derive relations that define magnitudes of thermal contraction, stress change and permeability evolution. The magnitude of thermal deformation in typical geothermal system is larger than anticipated and suggests two different modalities of surface subsidence – thermal contraction and fault reactivation. Here, surface deformation (vertical displacement, surface tilt and horizontal strain) induced by the two different modalities are assessed with Mogi (contraction) and Okada (slip) models and compared with instrumental sensitivity of high precision surface geodetic tools. We show that 1 year of geothermal operation at 10 MW with a power plant conversion efficiency of 12% can yield ~ 3.0 × 104 m3 of subsurface volume change. For a reservoir at 2000 m depth, this induces ~ 1.7 mm of vertical surface displacement, ~ 800 nano-radians of surface tilt and ~ 900 nano-strains of surface strain. This result implies that typically observed magnitudes of surface subsidence (order of cm/year) are naturally expected in massive (100 MW scale) geothermal operations and observed surface subsidence may largely be the result of thermal contraction. Conversely, thermal unloading can trigger fault reactivation. Analysis with an Okada slip model shows these shear offsets on pre-existing faults can also result in surface deformations of considerable magnitude. Our analysis of field operational data from various geothermal projects suggests that both thermal contraction and slow fault reactivation may contribute to the observed large surface deformation. Comparison of predicted deformation with instrumental sensitivity of high precision surface tools confirms that geodetic signals, especially tilt and strain, are indeed sufficiently large to describe reservoir evolution and to potentially deconvolve reservoir parameters of interest, such as permeability.

Cyclic growth and decay of permeability in fractures is explored during repeated reactivation and repose of saw‐cut fractures of Green River shale. These slide‐hold‐slide experiments are supported by measurements of fracture normal deformation and optical surface profilometry. Overall, we observe continuous permeability decay during repose (holds) and significant permeability enhancement during slow reactivation (slide). The permeability decay is accompanied by fault compaction. Both hydraulic aperture change (Δbh) and measured compaction (Δbs) are consistent with time‐dependent power law closure with a power exponent of ~0.2–0.4. These dual compaction magnitudes are positively correlated but Δbh > Δbs in late stage holds. Permeability enhancement during reactivation is typically also accompanied by fault dilation. However, we also observe some cases where hydraulic aperture change decouples from the measured deformation, conceivably driven by mobilization of wear products and influenced by the development of flow bottlenecks. Pretest and posttest surface profiles show that the surface topography of the fractures is planed down by shear removal. The shear removal is significant with initial laboratory prepared surface (~10 μm of aperture height) but less significant following consecutive reactivations (~2 μm). The flattened surfaces retain small‐scale, ~10–20 μm wavelength, roughness. Flow simulations, constrained by the surface topography and measured deformation, indicate that small‐scale roughness may control permeability at flow bottlenecks within a dominant flow channel. These results suggest cycles of permeability creation and destruction are an intrinsic component of the natural hydraulic system present in faults and fractures and provide an improved mechanistic understanding of the evolution of permeability during fault repose and reactivation. Key Points: Cycles of permeability enhancement and reduction largely correlate with cyclic dilation and compactionChange in hydraulic aperture and measured normal displacement at hold follow power law decay but with different magnitudesSmall‐scale roughness at bottlenecks in major flow channels controls permeability of the strongly compacted fracture system [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]