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Climate change has become the greatest threat to the world's ecosystems. Locating and managing areas that contribute to the survival of key species under climate change is critical for the persistence of ecosystems in the future. Here, we identify 'Climate Priority' sites as coral reefs exposed to relatively low levels of climate stress that will be more likely to persist in the future. We present the first analysis of uncertainty in climate change scenarios and models, along with multiple objectives, in a marine spatial planning exercise and offer a comprehensive approach to incorporating uncertainty and trade-offs in any ecosystem. We first described each site using environmental characteristics that are associated with a higher chance of persistence (larval connectivity, hurricane influence, and acute and chronic temperature conditions in the past and the future). Future temperature increases were assessed using downscaled data under four different climate scenarios (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5) and 57 model runs. We then prioritized sites for intervention (conservation, improved management or restoration) using robust decision-making approaches that select sites that will have a benign climate under most climate scenarios and models. The modelling work is novel because it solves two important issues. (1) It considers trade-offs between multiple planning objectives explicitly through Pareto analyses and (2) It makes use of all the uncertainty around future climate change. Priority intervention sites identified by the model were verified and refined through local stakeholder engagement including assessments of local threats, ecological conditions and government priorities. The workflow is presented for the Insular Caribbean and Florida, and at the national level for Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Our approach allows managers to consider uncertainty and multiple objectives for climate-smart spatial management in coral reefs or any ecosystem across the globe.

Larval dispersal connectivity is typically integrated into spatial conservation decisions at regional or national scales, but implementing agencies struggle with translating these methods to local scales. We used larval dispersal connectivity at regional (hundreds of kilometers) and local (tens of kilometers) scales to aid in design of networks of no-take reserves in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. We used Marxan with Connectivity informed by biophysical larval dispersal models and remotely sensed coral reef habitat data to design marine reserve networks for 4 commercially important reef species across the region. We complemented regional spatial prioritization with decision trees that combined network-based connectivity metrics and habitat quality to design reserve boundaries locally. Decision trees were used in consensus-based workshops with stakeholders to qualitatively assess site desirability, and Marxan was used to identify areas for subsequent network expansion. Priority areas for protection and expected benefits differed among species, with little overlap in reserve network solutions. Because reef quality varied considerably across reefs, we suggest reef degradation must inform the interpretation of larval dispersal patterns and the conservation benefits achievable from protecting reefs. Our methods can be readily applied by conservation practitioners, in this region and elsewhere, to integrate connectivity data across multiple spatial scales.Integración de la conectividad larval al proceso de toma de decisiones en la conservación marina en escalas espaciales Resumen Comúnmente se integra la conectividad de la dispersión larval a las decisiones de conservación espacial a escalas regionales o nacionales, pero las agencias de implementación luchan con la transferencia de estos métodos a las escalas locales. Usamos la conectividad de la dispersión larval a escalas regionales (cientos de kilómetros) y locales (decenas de kilómetros) para ayudar en el diseño de redes de reservas con protección total en Sulawesi Sudoriental, Indonesia. Usamos Marxan con la conectividad guiada por los modelos biofísicos de dispersión larval y detectamos a distancia los datos de hábitat de los arrecifes de coral para diseñar redes de reservas marinas para cuatro especies de importancia comercial en la región. Complementamos la priorización espacial regional con árboles de decisión que combinaron medidas de conectividad basadas en las redes y la calidad del hábitat para diseñar localmente los límites de la reserva. Usamos los árboles de decisión con los actores en talleres basados en el consenso para evaluar cualitativamente la conveniencia del sitio. También usamos Marxan para identificar áreas para la expansión subsecuente de la red. Las áreas prioritarias para la protección y los beneficios esperados difirieron entre especies, con un traslape reducido en las soluciones de la red de reservas. Ya que la calidad del arrecife varió considerablemente entre los arrecifes, sugerimos que la degradación de estos debe orientar la interpretación de los patrones de dispersión larval y los beneficios de conservación alcanzables con la protección de los arrecifes. Los practicantes de la conservación pueden aplicar nuestros métodos inmediatamente, en esta región o en cualquier otra, para integrar los datos de conectividad en varias escalas espaciales.幼体扩散的连接度常常被纳入区域或国家尺度的空间保护决策中, 但保护执行机构在将这些方法转化到局部尺度时却经常遇到困难。本研究在区域(几百公里)和局部(几十公里)范围内, 利用幼体扩散连接度来帮助设计了印度尼西亚东南苏拉威西的禁捕保护区网络。我们在幼体扩散的生物物理学模型和珊瑚礁生境遥感数据的指导下, 利用Marxan软件的连接度方法, 为该地区四个具有商业价值的珊瑚礁物种设计了海洋保护区网络。接下来, 我们以结合基于网络的连接度指标与生境质量来设计局部保护区边界的决策树作为补充, 确定了该区域的空间优先保护地区。研究者在与利益相关者的共识研讨会中用决策树定性评估了位点的可取性, 并用Marxan软件确定了后续网络扩展的区域。不同物种间的优先保护区域和预期效益有所不同, 且在保护区网络解决方案中几乎没有重叠。由于不同珊瑚礁的质量差异很大, 我们建议在理解幼体扩散模式和珊瑚礁保护的预期效益时必须考虑珊瑚礁的退化。保护工作者可以将我们的方法很好地用于该地区及其他地区, 来整合多个空间尺度的连接度数据。【翻译:胡怡思;审校:聂永刚】.

Larval dispersal is an important component of marine reserve networks. Two conceptually different approaches to incorporate dispersal connectivity into spatial planning of these networks exist, and it is an open question as to when either is most appropriate. Candidate reserve sites can be selected individually based on local properties of connectivity or on a spatial dependency-based approach of selecting clusters of strongly connected habitat patches. The first acts on individual sites, whereas the second acts on linked pairs of sites. We used a combination of larval dispersal simulations representing different seascapes and case studies of biophysical larval dispersal models in the Coral Triangle region and the province of Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compare the performance of these 2 methods in the spatial planning software Marxan. We explored the reserve design performance implications of different dispersal distances and patterns based on the equilibrium settlement of larvae in protected and unprotected areas. We further assessed different assumptions about metapopulation contributions from unprotected areas, including the case of 100% depletion and more moderate scenarios. The spatial dependency method was suitable when dispersal was limited, a high proportion of the area of interest was substantially degraded, or the target amount of habitat protected was low. Conversely, when subpopulations were well connected, the 100% depletion was relaxed, or more habitat was protected, protecting individual sites with high scores in metrics of connectivity was a better strategy. Spatial dependency methods generally produced more spatially clustered solutions with more benefits inside than outside reserves compared with site-based methods. Therefore, spatial dependency methods potentially provide better results for ecological persistence objectives over enhancing fisheries objectives, and vice versa. Different spatial prioritization methods of using connectivity are appropriate for different contexts, depending on dispersal characteristics, unprotected area contributions, habitat protection targets, and specific management objectives. Comparación entre los métodos de priorización de la conservación espacial con sitio y la conectividad espacial basada en la dependencia.La dispersión larval es un componente importante de las redes de reservas marinas. Existen dos estrategias conceptualmente distintas para incorporar la conectividad de la dispersión en la planeación espacial de estas redes y es una pregunta abierta cuándo alguna de las dos es la más apropiada. Los sitios candidatos a reserva pueden ser seleccionados individualmente con base en las propiedades locales de la conectividad o en la estrategia espacial basada en la dependencia que consiste en seleccionar grupos de fragmentos de hábitat con un vínculo fuerte. La primera estrategia actúa sobre sitios individuales, mientras que la segunda actúa sobre pares de sitios vinculados. Usamos una combinación de simulaciones de dispersión larval que representaban a diferentes paisajes marinos y estudios de caso de modelos biofísicos de dispersión larval en la región del Triángulo de Coral y en la provincia de Sulawesi Sudoriental, Indonesia, para comparar el desempeño de estos dos métodos en el software de planeación espacial Marxan. Exploramos las implicaciones del desempeño del diseño de la reserva de diferentes distancias y patrones de dispersión basados en el establecimiento del equilibrio de larvas en las áreas protegidas y sin protección. Además, analizamos las suposiciones sobre las contribuciones metapoblacionales de las áreas sin protección, incluyendo el caso de la reducción al 100% y escenarios más moderados. El método de la dependencia espacial fue adecuado cuando la dispersión estuvo limitada, una proporción elevada del área de interés estaba sustancialmente degradada o era baja la cantidad meta de hábitat protegido. Al contrario, cuando las subpoblaciones estaban bien conectadas, la reducción al 100% estuvo relajada, o si una mayor parte del hábitat estaba protegido, la protección de los sitios individuales con altos puntajes en las medidas de conectividad fue una mejor estrategia. Los métodos de dependencia espacial generalmente produjeron soluciones con una agrupación más espacial y con más beneficios dentro que fuera de las reservas en comparación con los métodos basados sitios. Por lo tanto, los métodos de dependencia espacial tienen el potencial de proporcionar mejores resultados para los objetivos de persistencia ecológica por encima de los objetivos de mejora de las pesquerías, y viceversa. Los diferentes métodos de priorización espacial que usan la conectividad son apropiados para contextos diferentes, dependiendo de las características de dispersión, las contribuciones del área sin protección, las metas de protección del hábitat y los objetivos específicos del manejo.幼体扩散是海洋保护区网络的一个重要组成部分。有两种基于不同概念的方法可以将扩散连接度纳入保护区网络的空间规划中, 而它们的适用情境仍存有争议。这两种方法包括根据连接度的局部属性来独立地选择候选保护区, 以及用基于空间依赖性的方法选择一片紧密连接的栖息地斑块。前者作用于单个位点, 而后者作用于相连的一对位点。我们利用代表不同海洋景观的幼体扩散模拟和珊瑚三角区及印度尼西亚东南苏拉威西的幼体扩散生物物理模型的案例研究, 比较了这两种方法在空间规划软件Marxan中的表现。研究根据幼体在保护区和非保护区的平衡定殖情况, 探讨了不同扩散距离和模式对保护区设计效果的影响。我们进一步评估了对来自非保护区的集合种群贡献的不同假设, 包括100%枯竭和更适中的情况。空间依赖性方法适用于以下情况:扩散受到限制, 感兴趣的地区有很大一部分严重退化, 或者受保护的栖息地目标数量较低。相反, 当亚种群相互连接, 100%枯竭的假设被放宽, 或是更多栖息地得到保护时, 保护连接度指标得分高的单个位点则会成为较好的策略。与基于位点的方法相比, 空间依赖性方法通常会产生更多空间上聚集的解决方案, 且在保护区内比在保护区外有更多益处。因此, 空间依赖性方法可能为生态续存目标提供更好的结果, 而非有利于渔业目标, 反之亦然。根据扩散特征、未受保护地区的贡献、栖息地保护目标和具体的管理目标, 基于连接度的不同空间优先保护方法也适合于不同的情况。【翻译:胡怡思;审校:聂永刚】.

Identifying relatively intact areas within ecosystems and determining the conditions favoring their existence is necessary for effective management in the context of widespread environmental degradation. In this study, we used 3766 surveys of randomly selected sites in the United States and U.S. Territories to identify the correlates of sites categorized as "oases" (defined as sites with relatively high total coral cover). We used occupancy models to evaluate the influence of 10 environmental predictors on the probability that an area (21.2-km

1. Human activities have led to widespread ecological decline; however, the severity of degradation is spatially heterogeneous due to some locations resisting, escaping, or rebounding from disturbances.2. We developed a framework for identifying oases within coral reef regions using long-term monitoring data. We calculated standardised estimates of coral cover (z-scores) to distinguish sites that deviated positively from regional means. We also used the coefficient of variation (CV) of coral cover to quantify how oases varied temporally, and to distinguish among types of oases. We estimated "coral calcification capacity" (CCC), a measure of the coral community's ability to produce calcium carbonate structures and tested for an association between this metric and z-scores of coral cover.3. We illustrated our z-score approach within a modelling framework by extracting z-scores and CVs from simulated data based on four generalized trajectories of coral cover. We then applied the approach to time-series data from long-term reef monitoring programmes in four focal regions in the Pacific (the main Hawaiian Islands and Mo'orea, French Polynesia) and western Atlantic (the Florida Keys and St. John, US Virgin Islands). Among the 123 sites analysed, 38 had positive z-scores for median coral cover and were categorised as oases.4. Synthesis and applications. Our framework provides ecosystem managers with a valuable tool for conservation by identifying "oases" within degraded areas. By evaluating trajectories of change in state (e.g., coral cover) among oases, our approach may help in identifying the mechanisms responsible for spatial variability in ecosystem condition. Increased mechanistic understanding can guide whether management of a particular location should emphasise protection, mitigation or restoration. Analysis of the empirical data suggest that the majority of our coral reef oases originated by either escaping or resisting disturbances, although some sites showed a high capacity for recovery, while others were candidates for restoration. Finally, our measure of reef condition (i.e., median z-scores of coral cover) correlated positively with coral calcification capacity suggesting that our approach identified oases that are also exceptional for one critical component of ecological function.

The Mesoamerican Reef (MAR) is an interconnected system that supports the local economies of four countries through the provision of seafood and tourism. Considerable financial, research and management effort has been invested in this priority ecoregion, whose boundaries were defined more than 18 yr ago based on best available data on oceanographic patterns, reef and watershed distribution. The long-term persistence of the MAR depends, however, on ensuring that all of its constituent parts are appropriately managed, and the current boundaries may not respond to this need. Here we assess the suitability of the current boundaries of the MAR using information on physical environments and larval connectivity of three key species. Our research indicates the boundaries of the ecoregion require an adjustment, as the exclusion of key areas in eastern Honduras might jeopardize the persistence of the entire network of connected reefs, and areas in northern Yucatan belong to a different environmental regime and may require different management strategies.

Big data, such as vessel monitoring system (VMS) data, can provide valuable information on fishing behaviours. However, conventional methods of detecting behaviours in movement data are challenged when behaviours are briefer than signal resolution. We investigate options for improving detection accuracy for short-set fisheries using 581 648 position records from 181 vessels in the Gulf of Mexico bandit-reel fishery. We first investigate the effects of increasing VMS temporal resolution and find that detection accuracy improves with fishing-set duration. We then assess whether a feature engineering approach—in our case, changing the way pings are labelled when training a classifier—could improve detection accuracy. From a dataset of 12 184 observed sets, we find that the conventional point-labelling method results in only 49% of pings being correctly labelled as ‘fishing’, whereas a novel window-labelling method results in 88% of records being labelled as ‘fishing’. When the labelled data are used to train classifiers, point labelling attains true-positive/balanced-accuracy rates of only 37%/66%, whereas window labelling achieves 68%/83%. Finally, we map fishing distribution using the two methods, and show that point labelling underestimates the extent of fishing grounds by ∼33%, highlighting the benefits of window labelling in particular, and feature engineering approaches in general.

Effective management of social-ecological systems (SESs) requires an understanding of human behavior. In many SESs, there are hundreds of agents or more interacting with governance and regulatory institutions, driving management outcomes through collective behavior. Agents in these systems often display consistent behavioral characteristics over time that can help reduce the dimensionality of SES data by enabling the assignment of types. Typologies of resource-user behavior both enrich our knowledge of user cultures and provide critical information for management. Here, we develop a data-driven framework to identify resource-user typologies in SESs with high-dimensional data. To demonstrate policy applications, we apply the framework to a tightly coupled SES, commercial fishing. We leverage large fisheries-dependent datasets that include mandatory vessel logbooks, observer datasets, and high-resolution geospatial vessel tracking technologies. We first quantify vessel and behavioral characteristics using data that encode fishers’ spatial decisions and behaviors. We then use clustering to classify these characteristics into discrete fishing behavioral types (FBTs), determining that 3 types emerge in our case study. Finally, we investigate how a series of disturbances applied selection pressure on these FBTs, causing the disproportionate loss of one group. Our framework not only provides an efficient and unbiased method for identifying FBTs in near real time, but it can also improve management outcomes by enabling ex ante investigation of the consequences of disturbances such as policy actions.

Increasing heat stress due to global climate change is causing coral reef decline, and the Caribbean has been one of the most vulnerable regions. Here, we assessed three decades (1985–2017) of heat stress exposure in the wider Caribbean at ecoregional and local scales using remote sensing. We found a high spatial and temporal variability of heat stress, emphasizing an observed increase in heat exposure over time in most ecoregions, especially from 2003 identified as a temporal change point in heat stress. A spatiotemporal analysis classified the Caribbean into eight heat-stress regions offering a new regionalization scheme based on historical heat exposure patterns. The temporal analysis confirmed the years 1998, 2005, 2010–2011, 2015 and 2017 as severe and widespread Caribbean heat-stress events and recognized a change point in 2002–2004, after which heat exposure has been frequent in most subsequent years. Major heat-stress events may be associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but we highlight the relevance of the long-term increase in heat exposure in most ecoregions and in all ENSO phases. This work produced a new baseline and regionalization of heat stress in the basin that will enhance conservation and planning efforts underway.

Coral reef monitoring programmes exist in all regions of the world, recording reef attributes such as coral cover, fish biomass and macroalgal cover. Given the cost of such monitoring programs, and the degraded state of many of the world’s reefs, understanding how reef monitoring data can be used to shape management decisions for coral reefs is a high priority. However, there is no general guide to understanding the ecological implications of the data in a format that can trigger a management response. We attempt to provide such a guide for interpreting the temporal trends in 41 coral reef monitoring attributes, recorded by seven of the largest reef monitoring programmes. We show that only a small subset of these attributes is required to identify the stressors that have impacted a reef (i.e. provide a diagnosis), as well as to estimate the likely recovery potential (prognosis). Two of the most useful indicators, turf algal canopy height and coral colony growth rate are not commonly measured, and we strongly recommend their inclusion in reef monitoring. The diagnosis and prognosis system that we have developed may help guide management actions and provides a foundation for further development as biological and ecological insights continue to grow.

To support fishing communities, reserves should ensure the persistence of meta-populations while boosting fisheries yield. However, so far their design from the onset has rarely considered both objectives simultaneously. Here we overcome this barrier in designing a network of reserves for the Caribbean spiny lobster, a species with long larval duration for which local management is considered pointless because the benefits of protection are believed to be accrued elsewhere. Our reserve design approach uses spatially explicit population models and considers ontogenetic migration, larval and adult movement. We show that yield and persistence are negatively related, but that both objectives can be maximized simultaneously during planning. Importantly, we also show that local efforts to manage spiny lobster, the most economically valuable marine resource in the Caribbean, can result in locally accrued benefits, overcoming a major barrier to investing effort in the appropriate management of this species.

Disturbance releases space and allows the growth of opportunistic species, excluded by the old stands, with a potential to alter community dynamics. In coral reefs, abundances of fast-growing, and disturbance-tolerant sponges are expected to increase and dominate as space becomes available following acute coral mortality events. Yet, an increase in abundance of these opportunistic species has been reported in only a few studies, suggesting certain mechanisms may be acting to regulate sponge populations. To gain insights into mechanisms of population control, we simulated the dynamics of the common reef-excavating sponge Cliona tenuis in the Caribbean using an individual-based model. An orthogonal hypothesis testing approach was used, where four candidate mechanisms-algal competition, stock-recruitment limitation, whole and partial mortality-were incorporated sequentially into the model and the results were tested against independent field observations taken over a decade in Belize, Central America. We found that releasing space after coral mortality can promote C. tenuis outbreaks, but such outbreaks can be curtailed by macroalgal competition. The asymmetrical competitive superiority of macroalgae, given by their capacity to pre-empt space and outcompete with the sponge in a size-dependant fashion, supports their capacity to steal the opportunity from other opportunists. While multiple system stages can be expected in coral reefs following intense perturbation macroalgae may prevent the growth of other space-occupiers, such as bioeroding sponges, under low grazing pressure.

The designation of no-take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.

Environmental conditions play an important role in post-disturbance dynamics of ecosystems by modulating recovery of surviving communities and influencing patterns of succession. Here, we document the effects of wave exposure following a catastrophic disturbance on coral reefs in driving a phase shift to macroalgal dominance. In December 2012, a Category 5 super typhoon (‘Typhoon Bopha’) passed 50 km to the south of Palau (Micronesia), causing a major loss of reef corals. Immediately post-disturbance, a rapid and extensive phase shift of the macroalgae Liagora sp. (Rhodophyta) was observed at sites exposed to chronic wave exposure. To quantify the influence of biotic and abiotic drivers in modulating the extent of post-disturbance Liagora blooms, we compared benthic substrates and herbivore assemblages at sites surveyed pre- and post-disturbance across a gradient of wave exposure. Relative changes in herbivore biomass and coral cover before and after disturbance did not significantly predict the extent of Liagora cover, indicating that changes in herbivore biomass or reductions in grazing pressure were not directly responsible for driving the Liagora blooms. By contrast, the degree of wave exposure experienced at sites post-disturbance explained >90 % of model variance (p 150 km distance), highlighting the predictive capacity of wave exposure as an explanatory variable and the deterministic nature of post-disturbance macroalgal blooms. Understanding how physical conditions modulate recovery of ecosystems after disturbance allows insight into post-disturbance dynamics and succession of communities, ultimately allowing management strategies to prioritise restoration efforts in regions that are most effective.

Aim: Coral assemblages on Caribbean reefs have largely been considered to be biogeographically homogeneous at a regional scale. We reassess this in three taxa (corals, sponges and octocorals) using three community attributes with increasing levels of information (species richness, composition and relative abundance) across hierarchical spatial scales, and identify the key environmental drivers associated with this variation. Location: Caribbean Basin. Methods: We assessed reefs along 546 transects positioned within the same forereef habitat (Orbicella reef) in 11 countries, using a consistent methodology and surveyors. Spatial variability in richness, composition and relative abundance was assessed at four hierarchical spatial scales – transects (metres), sites (kilometres), areas (tens of kilometres) and regions (hundreds of kilometres) – using permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). The relevance of contemporary environmental factors in explaining the observed spatial patterns was also assessed using PERMANOVA. Results: Consistent with previous studies, species richness of coral assemblages, commonly the focus of biogeographical studies, showed little variance at large spatial scales. In contrast, species composition and relative abundance showed significant variability at regional scales. Coral, sponge and octocoral assemblages each varied independently across spatial scales. Rugosity and wave exposure were key drivers of the composition and relative abundance of coral and octocoral assemblages. Main conclusions: Caribbean reef assemblages exhibit considerable biogeographical variability at broad spatial scales (hundreds of kilometres) when more responsive community attributes were used. However, the high degree of variability within sites (kilometres) highlights the relevance of local ecological drivers such as rugosity and wave exposure in structuring assemblages. The high levels of within‐site variability that is not explained by environmental variables may suggest a previously unrealized contribution of anthropogenic disturbance operating at local scales throughout the region. Australian Research Council/[FL0992179]/ARC/Australia Universidad de Costa Rica/[808-B0-531]/UCR/Costa Rica UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR)

Coastal ecosystems and the livelihoods they support are threatened by stressors acting at global and local scales. Here we used the data produced by the Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity program (CARICOMP), the longest, largest monitoring program in the wider Caribbean, to evidence local-scale (decreases in water quality) and global-scale (increases in temperature) stressors across the basin. Trend analyses showed that visibility decreased at 42% of the stations, indicating that local-scale chronic stressors are widespread. On the other hand, only 18% of the stations showed increases in water temperature that would be expected from global warming, partially reflecting the limits in detecting trends due to inherent natural variability of temperature data. Decreases in visibility were associated with increased human density. However, this link can be decoupled by environmental factors, with conditions that increase the flush of water, dampening the effects of human influence. Besides documenting environmental stressors throughout the basin, our results can be used to inform future monitoring programs, if the desire is to identify stations that provide early warning signals of anthropogenic impacts. All CARICOMP environmental data are now available, providing an invaluable baseline that can be used to strengthen research, conservation, and management of coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean basin.

Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.

When assessing future changes in fishing, research has focused on changes in the availability of the resource. Fishers' behaviour, however, also defines fishing activity, and is susceptible not only to changes in weather but also to changes in the economy, which can be faster and more ubiquitous. Using a novel modelling approach and spatially explicit predictors we identified the current drivers of artisanal fishing activity and predicted how it is likely to change in 2025 and 2035 under two climate and two economic scenarios. The model is effective at explaining the activity of fishers (AUC = 0.84) and suggests that economic variables overwhelm the importance of climate variables in influencing the decisions of fishers in our case study area (Utila, Honduras). Although future changes in the overall incidence of fishing activity are modest, decreases in the number of accessible fishing grounds with projected increases in fuel prices will increase localised fishing effort depleting fish resources near the port. Compelling adaptation strategies in the area require the intervention of the market chain to make the sale price of fish more responsive to fuel price fluctuations and changes in fishing behaviour to improve fuel efficiency, including the revival of traditional ways of fishing.

Ecosystem management is beset with potentially confusing terminology over the use of resilience, robustness and vulnerability. Here, we distinguish these concepts, discuss their operationalization, and identify the objectives that each is suited to. Resilience is useful when ecosystems risk losing the ability to recover and requires system modelling. Vulnerability can either be quantitative, measuring the ability of a system to remain above a critical threshold, or qualitative and used to evaluate the exposure of a system to disturbance and attributes that confer adaptive capacity and sensitivity to disturbance. As such, vulnerability is well-suited to assessments of coupled social-ecological systems. Robustness measures the ability of a system to maintain itself within a narrow range of function and is ideally suited to problems that require careful setting of upper and lower bounds for system properties, such as optimal fisheries yield.

Ocean temperature increase is recognised as one of the major threats to the future of coral reefs. During the past 50 years, global mean temperatures have risen by 0.13 °C/decade, but in the Caribbean warming trends are greater, and are of the order of 0.29 °C/decade. In light of this threat, some researchers have proposed that reefs may survive better in locations of naturally low thermal stress, and have hypothesised that such refugia may be located in: (1) deep areas; (2) areas of high currents; (3) upwelling; and (4) high-latitude areas. These regions have been targeted as priorities for conservation activities; however, with the exception of deep reefs, formal assessment of the efficacy of these potential refugia is lacking. Here we tested the three remaining hypotheses in the wider Caribbean region using remotely sensed data and hydrodynamic model outputs. We began by determining the location of the hypothesised refugia, and then quantified the extent to which they minimise acute and chronic thermal stress in a significant and consistent manner through time. Furthermore, recognising the increasing sea warming and the concern that high temperatures could frequently exceed lethal thresholds for many organisms in the future, we assessed the ability of these areas to slow the rates of increase of temperatures. We show that the proposed areas do not constitute meaningful refugia from acute thermal stress. However, upwelling areas in the Caribbean have conservation utility because rates of thermal warming are lower.

Ecosystem management frequently aims to manage resilience yet measuring resilience has proven difficult. Here, we quantify the ecological resilience of the largest reef in the Caribbean and map potential benefits of marine reserves under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Resilience is calculated using spatial ecological models and defined as the probability of a reef remaining in its coral-dominated basin of attraction such that it does not flip into an alternate, algal-dominated attractor. In practice, resilience is the probability that coral populations will maintain the ability to exhibit a recovery trend after acute disturbances such as hurricanes. The inputs required to estimate resilience are a reef's initial state, physical environment, and disturbance regime. One major driver of reef resilience is herbivory by parrotfish and recent action to protect parrotfish in Belize was found to have increased resilience 6-fold. However, the expected benefits of parrotfish protection to future coral cover were relatively modest with only a 2- to 2.6-fold improvement over a business-as-usual scenario, demonstrating how resilience and ecosystem states are decoupled. Global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions had little impact on average coral state unless it was accompanied by local controls of fishing. However, combined global and local action reduced the rate of reef degradation threefold. Operationalizing resilience explicitly integrates available biophysical data and accommodates the complex interactions among ecological processes and multiple types of disturbance.

Coastal ecosystems and the livelihoods they support are threatened by stressors acting at global and local scales. Here we used the data produced by the Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity program (CARICOMP), the longest, largest monitoring program in the wider Caribbean, to evidence local-scale (decreases in water quality) and global-scale (increases in temperature) stressors across the basin. Trend analyses showed that visibility decreased at 42% of the stations, indicating that local-scale chronic stressors are widespread. On the other hand, only 18% of the stations showed increases in water temperature that would be expected from global warming, partially reflecting the limits in detecting trends due to inherent natural variability of temperature data. Decreases in visibility were associated with increased human density. However, this link can be decoupled by environmental factors, with conditions that increase the flush of water, dampening the effects of human influence. Besides documenting environmental stressors throughout the basin, our results can be used to inform future monitoring programs, if the desire is to identify stations that provide early warning signals of anthropogenic impacts. All CARICOMP environmental data are now available, providing an invaluable baseline that can be used to strengthen research, conservation, and management of coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean basin. UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR)

While environmental filters are well-known factors influencing community assembly, the extent to which these modify species functions, and entire ecosystem processes, is poorly understood. Focusing on a high-diversity system, we ask whether environmental filtering has ecosystem-wide effects beyond community assembly. We characterise a coral reef herbivorous fish community for swimming performance based on ten functional traits derived from fish morphology. We then investigate whether wave exposure modifies the functional make-up of herbivory, and the absolute and relative feeding frequency of distinct feeding functional groups. Herbivorous fish species conformed to either laterally compressed or fusiform body plans, which differ in their morphological design to minimise drag. High wave exposure selectively limited the feeding function of the deepest body shapes with highest caudal thrust efficiency, and favoured fusiform bodies irrespective of pectoral fin shape. Traditionally recognised herbivore feeding functional groups (i.e. grazers–detritivores and scrapers–small excavators) differed in swimming performance, and in their capacity to feed consistently across levels of wave exposure. We therefore emphasise the distinctness of their ecological niche and functional complementarity. Species within the same feeding functional group also had contrasting responses to wave exposure. We thereby reveal a further ecological dimension of niche partitioning, and reiterate the risk of assuming functional redundancy among species with a common feeding mode. Contrasting responses of species within feeding functional roles (i.e. response diversity) allowed the preservation of critical trophic functions throughout the gradient (e.g. macroalgal browsing), and likely explained why overall levels of herbivory were robust to filtering. Whether ecosystem functioning will remain robust under the additive effects of environmental stress and human-induced disturbances remains to be tested. A lay summary is available for this article.

The Caribbean Sea encompasses a vast range of physical environmental conditions that have a profound influence on the organisms that live there. Here we utilize a range of satellite and in situ products to undertake a region-wide categorization of the physical environments of the Caribbean Sea (PECS). The classification approach is hierarchical and focuses on physical constraints that drive many aspects of coastal ecology, including species distributions, ecosystem function, and disturbance. The first level represents physicochemical properties including metrics of satellite sea surface temperature, water clarity, and in situ salinity. The second level considers mechanical disturbance and includes both chronic disturbance from wind-driven wave exposure and acute disturbance from hurricanes. The maps have a spatial resolution of 1 km2. An unsupervised neural network classification produced 16 physicochemical provinces that can be categorized into six broad groups: (1) low water clarity and low salinity and average temperatures; (2) low water clarity but average salinity and temperature, broadly distributed in the basin; (3) low salinity but average water clarity and temperature; (4) upwelling; (5) high latitude; and (6) offshore waters of the inner Caribbean. Additional mechanical disturbance layers impose additional pattern that operates over different spatial scales. Because physical environments underpin so much of coastal ecosystem structure and function, we anticipate that the PECS classification, which will be freely distributed as geographic information system layers, will facilitate comparative analyses and inform the stratification of studies across environmental provinces in the Caribbean basin.

In the Caribbean region, forereef habitats dominated by Montastraea spp. have the highest biodiversity and support the largest number of ecosystem processes and services. Here we show that the distribution of this species-rich habitat can be explained by one environmental predictor: wave exposure. The relationship between wave exposure and the occurrence of Montastraea reefs was modelled using logistic regression for reefs throughout the Belize Barrier Reef, one of the largest and most topographically complex systems in the region. The model was able to predict correctly the occurrence of Montastraea reefs with an accuracy of 81%. Consistent with historical qualitative patterns, the distribution of Montastraea reefs is constrained in environments of high exposure. This pattern is likely to be driven by high rates of chronic sediment scour that constrain recruitment. The wide range of wave exposure conditions used to parameterize the model in Belize suggest that it should be transferable throughout much of the Caribbean region, constituting a fast and inexpensive alternative to traditional habitat mapping and complementing global efforts to map reef extent.

Notionally herbivorous fishes maintains a critical ecosystem function on coral reefs by grazing algae and maintaining highly productive algal turf assemblages. Current paradigms implicate habitat complexity, predation, and primary productivity as major drivers of the distribution and abundance of herbivorous fish, yet little is known about the relative contribution of these factors. Here, we compare bottom-up and top-down drivers of notional herbivore assemblages across an environmental gradient of wave exposure in the Palau archipelago. We surveyed herbivore assemblages at reef slopes (6–9 m) across 18 sites, and quantified proxies of top-down control (predator biomass, habitat complexity) and bottom-up drivers (net primary production, nutrients) at each site. Despite substantial variability in herbivore biomass throughout the archipelago (6–65 g/m), general additive models indicate that neither top-down nor bottom-up drivers significantly predicted biomass or density of herbivores among sites. In contrast to expectations, herbivore biomass was highest at sites with high predator biomass, low structural complexity, and low benthic productivity. Rather, the highest biomass of herbivores was associated with shallow, tidally emergent, productive reef flats located adjacent to steep vertical walls (“drop-offs”). The emergent nature of this neighboring habitat precluded occupation by territorial fishes and multiple species of herbivores were observed to make foraging runs into this habitat once tidally inundated. We hypothesize that this habitat configuration provides an important cross-habitat resource subsidy. Multivariate ordination and permutation of herbivore communities revealed strong evidence for biogeographic partitioning throughout the archipelago (western, southwestern, inner eastern, and outer eastern clusters), contributing to an emerging picture that the habitat heterogeneity of seascapes can overwhelm the effects of conventional top-down and bottom-up structuring of herbivory on coral reefs.

Global warming is a severe threat to coral reefs. It has been proposed that upwelling could minimise the thermal stress caused by ocean warming, and therefore upwelling areas may serve as a refuge for corals. Here, using 21 yr of satellite sea surface temperature data, we analysed the degree to which the thermal stress experienced by corals is reduced in 4 seasonal upwelling areas with reef development: Colombia in the southern Caribbean, Panama in the eastern tropical Pacific, Oman in the Arabian Sea and Madagascar in the Indian Ocean. Upwelling areas do not always offer protection from thermal stress. When compared with nearby non-upwelling areas, upwelling can only provide defence against warming events if: (1) the threat and the upwelling coincide, and (2) this overlap produces a meaningful decrease in thermal stress in upwelling areas. These conditions were met in only 2 of the 4 upwelling areas analysed: Colombia and Oman. In Oman, upwelling decreased the magnitude, frequency and duration of thermal disturbances (identified when Coral Bleaching HotSpots, anomalies exceeding the average temperature of the warmest month, are larger than 1°C), while in Colombia upwelling only decreased their frequency. The protective role of upwelling seems to be limited geographically; therefore, further upwelling areas need to be assessed individually in order to evaluate their capacity as a refuge from thermal stress. © Inter-Research 2010.

Nearshore marine populations are structured in metapopulations that are connected through larval dispersal across national boundaries. One of the main challenges for effective management of these metapopulations is the need for partnerships between nations that share the same resource. By coupling large‐scale connectivity information to a dynamic population model, we analyzed the patterns of connectivity and population persistence for the Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) metapopulation both within and across national boundaries. Although spiny lobster subpopulations are highly connected at the basin scale, several nations located in the northern Caribbean and ecoregional networks could persist independently of the larger basin‐wide metapopulation. Based on these results, we propose transnational neighborhoods for spiny lobster management. Our analysis suggests that the dynamics and management of those subpopulations neighborhoods are not intrinsically dependent on “upstream” connectivity even though current rates of upstream larval supply are very high.

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide and monitoring activities are important for assessing the impact of disturbance on reefs and tracking subsequent recovery or decline. Monitoring by field surveys provides accurate data but at highly localised scales and so is not cost-effective for reef scale monitoring at frequent time points. Remote sensing from satellites is an alternative and complementary approach. While remote sensing cannot provide the level of detail and accuracy at a single point than a field survey, the statistical power for inferring large scale patterns benefits in having complete areal coverage. This review considers the state of the art of coral reef remote sensing for the diverse range of objectives relevant for management, ranging from the composition of the reef: physical extent, benthic cover, bathymetry, rugosity; to environmental parameters: sea surface temperature, exposure, light, carbonate chemistry. In addition to updating previous reviews, here we also consider the capability to go beyond basic maps of habitats or environmental variables, to discuss concepts highly relevant to stakeholders, policy makers and public communication: such as biodiversity, environmental threat and ecosystem services. A clear conclusion of the review is that advances in both sensor technology and processing algorithms continue to drive forward remote sensing capability for coral reef mapping, particularly with respect to spatial resolution of maps, and synthesis across multiple data products. Both trends can be expected to continue.

In December 1999 heavy continuous rains that lasted one week affected the Venezuelan coastline. At Morrocoy National Park, a large marine reserve, rainfall values surpassed previous 32-year records and led to a decrease of salinity to 3 psu, which lasted for over a month at some locations. This study examined effects of these changes on the shallow-water meadows of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum Banks ex Koning (1805), by comparing their structure before and after this disturbance at four selected sites. The rain acted as a pulse-type disturbance, altering the physicochemical features at all sites, which soon returned to the previously prevailing conditions. However, T. testudinum beds showed a sudden stress reaction followed by slow recovery. The disturbance prompted an increase in the amount of dead tissue and defoliation. Later a sustained increase of leaf biomass, productivity and reproductive shoots was observed, neither ever noticed before in the Park. The seagrass meadows in Morrocoy showed signs of stress even one year after the impact, suggesting that the 1999 disturbance deeply affected the characteristics of these systems within the Park.

Heavy rainfall caused a severe disturbance on the Thalassia testudinum meadows at Morrocoy National Park in December 1999, affecting its associated infauna and inducing responses to stress in opportunistic polychaetes belonging to the Spionidae Family. The changes were evaluated at four seagrass beds, examining the structure and species composition of the Spionid macrofauna over eight samplings: four prior and four after the disturbance. Immediately after the heavy rainfall the Spionids showed transient changes, expressed as large increases of species density and richness, reaching values of 875 individuals m − 2 (against the usual 20 individuals m − 2 ) and 7 species (against the previous 1–3 species) during February 2000. These abundance pulses were represented by selected species at each location. Opportunistic species, having limited dispersion ( Streblospio gynobranchiata and polydorids) were commonly found in continentally-influenced locations whereas species having dispersal mechanisms were commonly found in stations under oceanic influence (species of the Genus Prionospio ). Likewise, the observed recovery patterns indicate different rhythms: while the oceanic communities showed a fast recovery, the continentally ones returned to their original states slowly. Hence, the patterns observed in the benthic polychaete communities associated with the T. testudinum beds from Morrocoy N.P. clearly indicate that the recolonization processes, succession dynamics and recovery time depend on the spatial scale of disturbance, the life history of species involved and the particular conditions of the habitat.

The designation of no-take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.

Region-wide assessments of coral cover typically rely on meta-analyses of small-scale ecological studies which have combined different coral reef habitats. This is particularly problematic on forereefs where at least 2 habitats can be found; coral-based bioherms and colonized hardgrounds (hereafter Orbicella reefs and gorgonian plains), each with very different structure and scleractinian coral cover. Here, we quantify the degree to which the failure to differentiate forereef zones dominated by framework building corals, mainly Orbicella spp. (hereafter Orbicella reefs) from gorgonian plains can lead to biased assessments of coral cover. We also provide a baseline of an extensive sample of Caribbean coral reefs in 2010-2012 for the 2 habitats within the forereef. Mean scleractinian coral cover (±SE) at Orbicella reefs was 24 ± 1.3%, more than double the coral cover found on the gorgonian plains (10 ± 1.6%). The difference in coral cover between habitats within the same geomorphological zone is consistent with those calculated from an independent dataset for the basin (Atlantic and Gulf Rapid Reef Assessment). Furthermore, the average coral cover calculated for Caribbean Orbicella reefs was more than double the values previously reported for entire reefs in the region a decade ago (10%), which integrated data from different habitats, depths, time periods and surveyors. Differentiating between forereef habitats has provided a meaningful baseline of coral state, which allows for realistic targets for management in the Caribbean basin. Universidad de Costa Rica/[808-B0-531]/UCR/Costa Rica European Union/[grant 244161]/EU/Países Bajos UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR)

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) using the best proxy for acclimatization currently available; (3) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (4) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.

Recent changes in ocean temperature have impacted marine ecosystem function globally. Nevertheless, the responses have depended upon the rate of change of temperature and the season when the changes occur, which are spatially variable. A rigorous statistical analysis of sea surface temperature observations over 25 years was used to examine spatial variability in overall and seasonal temperature trends within the wider Caribbean. The basin has experienced high spatial variability in rates of change of temperature. Most of the warming has been due to increases in summer rather than winter temperatures. However, warming was faster in winter in the Loop Current area and the south-eastern Caribbean, where the annual temperature ranges have contracted. Waters off Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas had a tendency towards cooling in winter, increasing the amplitude of annual temperature ranges. These detailed patterns can be used to elucidate ecological responses to climatic change in the region.

Coastal waters are mainly influenced by two large spatial scale processes: upwellings and river inputs (Mann & Lazier, 2006). Rivers are the main conduits of water, dissolved and particulate organic matter, salt, and other organic materials from the continents to the sea (Alongi, 1998). In Venezuela, the largest watercourse is the Orinoco River, covering a total basin of 106 km2 and discharging an average of 1,080 km3/yr of water, and 150x 106 tons3/yr of sediment to the Atlantic Ocean, representing the fourth largest river of the world in terms of discharge (Alongi, 1998). Several authors have shown that the Orinoco’s river plume can extend up to 100 km from the coast line, during the rainy season, influencing the salinity patterns, coastal currents, suspended materials and nutrient concentrations in the Venezuelan Atlantic coast and the Caribbean Sea (Muller-Karger et al., 1989; Penchaszadeh et al., 2000). The dispersion of the riverine front follows a northwest direction due to the influence of the northeasterly trade winds and the Guayana current flow. The surface plume is well-mixed inshore but it is stratified on the outer shelf, creating unique environmental conditions that greatly modify the marine waters and sediments. Very scarce information was available for this Atlantic area until recent years, as the Venezuelan government has undergone offshore gas exploration activities in the continental shelf off the Orinoco River delta (Gomez et al., 2005, Martin & Bone, 2007). This effort has allowed the scientific community to conduct large multidisciplinary base line studies for this Atlantic region, characterized by a large continental shelf, partly influenced by the Orinoco's continental waters, with salinity values ranging from 0.25 to 36.92‰ (Martin & Bone, 2007), and a steep slope, reaching more than 2,500 m deep. These studies have included the characterization of the environmental and biological settings of the area, including the benthic component. The benthic community has been recently reported in terms of the main groups inhabiting these large soft-bottom areas (Bone et al., 2007), where polychaetes represented the most important one, achieving more than 64% of the total macrofaunal abundance. The biodiversity knowledge of the polychaeta fauna in Venezuela has been traditionally focused on shallow water areas. Previous studies have revealed a total of 40 families, 138 genera and 206 species for the Caribbean coast (Bone & Linero, 2003), but there is no previous information for the Atlantic region or deep waters. In the course of this study we