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This paper presents the results of a study on the main reasons for the transformation of wetland ecosystems in the Delta of the Ili River in the period of 1979-2014. The study results are shown based on the analysis of multi-temporal satellite data Landsat, dynamics of hydrological regime of the river Ili, climate conditions and features of economic activities of the local community, as well as fieldwork in the study region. Analysis of area changes of main types of hydromorphic and semi-hydromorphic ecosystems of Delta river Ili in high and medium on water discharge in the following (1979, 1993, 2000, 2010, and 2015) years. Increasing water consumption in China and in Kazakhstan part of the Ili-Balkhash basin due to the development of the agrarian and municipal sectors of economy especially in China, significantly exceed increasing flow of Ili River, caused by regional warming in the catchment part of Ili River Basin. The global warming has intensified the degradation of glaciers in mountain catchment areas of Ili River, this in the near future threatens with a decline in river flow and as a consequence lead to the deterioration of delta ecosystems and the desiccation of lake Balkhash similarly to the ecological disaster of the Aral Sea. Analysis of long-term (from 1970 to 2013) climatic data from three meteorological stations demonstrated a trend of the regional increase of average annual air temperature by 1.4 °C and decreasing of average annual precipitation by 10 mm. These factors also contribute to the transformation process of hydromorphic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River deltas provide the most productive pastures in Central Asia. Simultaneously they are highly vulnerable to water inflow changes. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the short- and medium-term effect of reduced water inflow on farmers’ performance within the Ili Delta. Primary data were collected through 35 interviews with farmers and additional experts in 2015. Production parameters for three types of individual farms were estimated and entered into a full cost accounting. Contribution margins were calculated for three scenarios: (I) sufficient water inflow (normal situation), (II) decreasing water inflow, and (III) significantly reduced water inflow (worst case). Farmers purchase hay to adapt to pasture production loss due to decreasing water inflow. This more than doubled the variable costs of worst case in comparison to normal situation for small-, medium-, and large-scale type of individual farm. Monte Carlo simulation indicates a risk of 74% (small-scale farm) and 3% (medium-scale farm) that already variable costs will exceed revenues. Despite their high fixed costs, only large-scale individual farms generate positive net farm income from operations in the worst case due to government payments from participation in elite bull program that account for one-third of total revenue.

River deltas provide the most productive pastures in Central Asia. Simultaneously they are highly vulnerable to water inflow changes. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the short- and medium-term effect of reduced water inflow on farmers' performance within the Ili Delta. Primary data were collected through 35 interviews with farmers and additional experts in 2015. Production parameters for three types of individual farms were estimated and entered into a full cost accounting. Contribution margins were calculated for three scenarios: (I) sufficient water inflow (normal situation), (II) decreasing water inflow, and (III) significantly reduced water inflow (worst case). Farmers purchase hay to adapt to pasture production loss due to decreasing water inflow. This more than doubled the variable costs of worst case in comparison to normal situation for small-, medium-, and large-scale type of individual farm. Monte Carlo simulation indicates a risk of 74% (small-scale farm) and 3% (medium-scale farm) that already variable costs will exceed revenues. Despite their high fixed costs, only large-scale individual farms generate positive net farm income from operations in the worst case due to government payments from participation in elite bull program that account for one-third of total revenue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]