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Background: There have been very few reports of risk score models for the development of gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk assessment tool for discerning future gastric cancer risk in Japanese.Methods: A total of 2444 subjects aged 40 years or over were followed up for 14 years from 1988 (derivation cohort), and 3204 subjects of the same age group were followed up for 5 years from 2002 (validation cohort). The weighting (risk score) of each risk factor for predicting future gastric cancer in the risk assessment tool was determined based on the coefficients of a Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort. The goodness of fit of the established risk assessment tool was assessed using the c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test in the validation cohort.Results: During the follow-up, gastric cancer developed in 90 subjects in the derivation cohort and 35 subjects in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the risk prediction model for gastric cancer was established using significant risk factors: age, sex, the combination of Helicobacter pylori antibody and pepsinogen status, hemoglobin A1c level, and smoking status. The incidence of gastric cancer increased significantly as the sum of risk scores increased (P trend < 0.001). The risk assessment tool was validated internally and showed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.43) in the validation cohort.Conclusions: We developed a risk assessment tool for gastric cancer that provides a useful guide for stratifying an individual’s risk of future gastric cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors examined the association between white blood cell (WBC) count and the development of gastric cancer in a 19-year follow-up study of 2,558 Japanese subjects aged ≥40 years (1988–2007). The subjects were stratified into 4 groups according to baseline WBC quartile (≤4.4, 4.5–5.2, 5.3–6.3, or ≥6.4 × 103 cells/μL). During follow-up, 128 subjects developed gastric cancer. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of gastric cancer increased linearly with higher WBC level: 1.7, 2.6, 3.9, and 5.4 per 1,000 person-years, respectively, for the 4 quartile groups (P for trend < 0.01). The risk of gastric cancer was 2.22-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.19, 4.14) higher in the highest WBC quartile group than in the lowest group after adjustment for confounding factors. With respect to Helicobacter pylori infection status, H. pylori-seropositive subjects in the highest WBC quartile group showed a significantly greater risk of gastric cancer than those in the lower 3 quartile groups, whereas such an association was not observed in H. pylori-seronegative subjects. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association (P for heterogeneity = 0.65). The study findings suggest that higher WBC levels are a risk factor for gastric cancer, especially in subjects with H. pylori infection. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: The results of prospective studies examining the association between dietary vitamin A intake and the risk of gastric cancer have often been conflicting. The objective of this study was to investigate this issue in a general Japanese population. Methods: A total of 2,467 community-dwelling Japanese subjects aged 40 years or older were followed up prospectively for 14 years. Dietary vitamin A intake was estimated using a semiquantitative food frequency method. Results: During the follow-up period, gastric cancer developed in 93 subjects. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of gastric cancer rose progressively with increasing levels of dietary vitamin A intake: at 2.2, 3.0, 3.8, and 4.5 per 1,000 person-years for quartile groups defined by dietary vitamin A intake levels of <639, 639-837, 838-1,061, and >1,061 μg retinol equivalents (RE)/day, respectively ( P for trend <0.01). The risk of gastric cancer was significantly higher in the fourth quartile than in the first one even after multivariate adjustment [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70-3.09, P = 0.30 for the second quartile; HR = 1.85, 95% CI = 0.82-4.18, P = 0.14 for the third quartile; HR = 2.96, 95% CI = 1.12-7.80, P = 0.03 for the fourth quartile]. Comparable effects of vitamin A intake were observed irrespective of the location or histological type of gastric cancer. The HR for gastric cancer increased significantly only in subjects with a combination of high vitamin A intake (>1,061 μg RE/day) and Helicobacter pylori infection. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that dietary vitamin A intake is clearly associated with the risk of gastric cancer in the general Japanese population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives The association between hematocrit levels and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been reported inconsistently. We aimed to investigate the association of hematocrit levels with the development of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a general Japanese population. Methods A total of 2585 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged 40 years or older in 1988 were followed up for 19 years. These subjects were divided into four groups according to the sex-specific quartiles of hematocrit at baseline. Results During the follow-up, 301 subjects developed stroke (210 ischemic and 91 hemorrhagic) and 187 developed CHD. The risk of ischemic stroke was higher in both the lowest (Q1: men, ≤44.7%; women, ≤39.3%) and the highest (Q4: men, ≥49.7%; women, ≥43.8%) quartiles than in the third quartile (Q3: men, 47.1%–49.6%; women, 41.7%–43.7%) used as a reference (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals]: Q1, 1.55 [0.99–2.43]; Q2, 1.44 [0.93–2.23]; Q3, 1.00; and Q4, 1.62 [1.06–2.50]; P = 0.86 for trend). In contrast, hematocrit levels and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke showed a linear inverse association (Q1, 1.91 [1.03–3.54]; Q2, 1.26 [0.68–2.34]; Q3, 1.00; and Q4, 0.81 [0.41–1.61]; P = 0.009 for trend). The risk of CHD increased significantly in Q4 (Q1, 1.13 [0.71–1.80]; Q2, 1.08 [0.69–1.71]; Q3, 1.00; and Q4, 1.60 [1.04–2.46]; P = 0.13 for trend). Conclusions Our findings suggest that both elevated and decreased hematocrit levels are associated with an increased risk of CVD, but the influence of hematocrit is different among subtypes of CVD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background and purpose: It has not been fully determined whether non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDLC) levels are involved in vascular events, especially stroke, in general Asian populations. We evaluated the association between non-HDLC levels and the risk of type-specific cardiovascular disease in a prospective cohort study in Japan. Methods: A total of 2452 community-dwelling Japanese subjects aged ≥40 years were followed prospectively for 24 years. Results: The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of coronary heart diseases (CHD) significantly increased with elevating non-HDLC levels (P for trend < 0.001), but no such association was observed for ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. With regard to ischemic stroke subtypes, the age- and sex-adjusted incidence of lacunar infarction significantly increased with elevating non-HDLC levels (P for trend < 0.01), and such tendency was seen for atherothrombotic infarction (P for trend = 0.098), while a significant inverse association was observed for cardioembolic infarction (P for trend = 0.007). After adjustment for confounders, namely, age, sex, diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiogram abnormalities, current drinking, current smoking, and regular exercise, the associations remained significant for CHD [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for a 1 standard deviation of non-HDLC concentrations = 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02 to 1.35], atherothrombotic infarction (adjusted HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.79), and cardioembolic infarction (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.47 to 0.85). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that elevated non-HDLC levels are a significant risk factor for the development of atherothrombotic infarction as well as CHD but reduce the risk of cardioembolic infarction in the general Japanese population. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

BACKGROUND: Changes in lifestyle and advances in medical technology during the past half century are likely to have affected the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular disease and the prevalence of its risk factors in Japan. METHODS AND RESULTS: We established 5 cohorts consisting of residents aged >=40 years in a Japanese community, in 1961 (n=1618), 1974 (n=2038), 1983 (n=2459), 1993 (n=1983), and 2002 (n=3108), and followed up each cohort for 7 years. The age-adjusted incidence of stroke decreased greatly, by 51% in men and by 43% in women, from the 1960s to the 1970s, but this decreasing trend slowed from the 1970s to the 2000s. Among the stroke subtypes, ischemic stroke in both sexes and intracerebral hemorrhage in men showed a similar pattern. Stroke mortality decreased as a result of the decline in incidence and a significant improvement in survival rate. Although the incidence of acute myocardial infarction did not change in either sex, disease mortality declined slightly in women. From the 1960s to the 2000s, blood pressure control among hypertensive individuals improved significantly and the smoking rate decreased, but the prevalence of glucose intolerance, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity increased steeply. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in Japanese, the decreasing trends in the incidence of ischemic stroke have recently slowed down, and there has been no clear change in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction, probably because the benefits of hypertension control and smoking cessation have been negated by increasing metabolic risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Serum pepsinogen (sPG) levels have been established as a good marker of chronic atrophic gastritis and the sequential occurrence of gastric cancer. However, there have been few prospective investigations which investigated the predictive performance of sPG for future gastric cancer incidence. Subjects and methods. We prospectively followed-up a total of 2446 community-dwelling Japanese aged ≥40 years for 10 years and used the Youden's index to determine the cutoff values of the pepsinogen I level and pepsinogen I/II ratio to accurately discriminate gastric cancer events. Predictive performance of sPG was assessed by ROC curve. Results. During the follow-up, 69 subjects developed gastric cancer. The most predictive sPG test criteria were determined to be a pepsinogen I level ≤ 59 ng/ml and pepsinogen I/II ratio ≤ 3.9. The sensitivity and specificity of these criteria to discriminate the actual occurrence of gastric cancer were 71.0% and 69.2%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve for gastric cancer occurrence increased significantly by adding the sPG test to the model that included the status of Helicobater pylori infection and other potential risk factors (from 0.742 to 0.809; p for difference in the area < 0.001). Conclusions. This study determined the optimal sPG test criteria for predicting gastric cancer occurrence over 10 years in a general Japanese population. These criteria would be effective to screen for individuals at high risk of this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cigarette smoking is an established risk factor for stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) in Western countries. However, it is uncertain whether or not smoking raises the risk of stroke in Japanese. We examined the influence of smoking on the development of stroke and CHD and the effects of interactions between smoking and hypercholesterolemia on these outcomes in a general Japanese population. Methods: A total of 2,421 community-dwelling Japanese individuals, aged 40-79 years, with no history of cardiovascular disease, were followed up for 14 years. Results: During the follow-up, 194 total stroke and 112 CHD events occurred. Compared with never smokers, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for the occurrence of total stroke were 1.53 (95% confidence interval = 0.90-2.61) in former smokers, 1.90 (1.18-3.06) in current light smokers (<20 cigarettes/day) and 2.01 (1.11-3.65) in current heavy smokers (≥20 cigarettes/day). The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for the development of CHD were 1.10 (0.56-2.15), 1.88 (1.02-3.47) and 2.31 (1.17-4.57), respectively. In regard to stroke subtypes, current smoking was an independently significant risk factor for ischemic stroke and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Furthermore, the combination of smoking and hypercholesterolemia synergistically increased the risks of total stroke and CHD (all p for interaction <0.05). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that smoking raises the risks of ischemic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage and CHD occurrence in the Japanese population, and that this effect is strengthened by hypercholesterolemia. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]