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In this study, we explore COVID-19 spreading dynamics at large events like scientific conferences. We do so in three ways: We examine and quantify the impact of different event parameters as well as individual protective behavior on infection probability using Bayesian modeling. We assess the impact of risk communication by testing the effect of a communication-based intervention on protective behavior and infection probability. We analyze the influence of different socio-psychological variables on protective behavior to deepen the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the effects of communication-based interventions.

The aim of the project is to understand how participation in scientific conferences and events influences the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, participants of different events will be surveyed anonymously. The survey will ask whether a COVID-19 infection occurred during conference participation. In addition, questions about participants' behaviour (e.g. wearing masks, staying indoors, attending dinners, vaccinations, etc.) will be asked to establish a link between event parameters and relative risk of infection. In addition, we will investigate how social psychological characteristics relate to individual protective behaviour. The results will help to understand how conferences can be made safer for participants and society. The resulting findings will inform policy advocacy.

In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure ‘test-trace-isolate-support’ becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.

The SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant is spreading rapidly in Europe, even in countries with high levels of vaccination, including those that have moved quickly with booster vaccinations. We write as health professionals and researchers from across Europe to call for concerted European action to address the immediate threat and to move rapidly to develop joint plans to tackle future variants of concern effectively. EU Member States have accepted the principle of a European Health Union and have put in place measures to create a Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority.3 They now need to show that they can work together in ways that they have not always done before. [Excerpt from article], peer-reviewed

Das Gesundheitssystem ist durch COVID-19 regional bereits ��berlastet. Die Grenzwerte 6 (kritische Situation) bzw. 9 (hochkritische Situation) der Hospitalisierungsinzidenz (hospitalisierte F��lle pro 100.000 Einwohner) sind in den meisten Bundesl��ndern faktisch bereits ��berschritten. Der Scheitelpunkt der aktuellen Welle ist noch nicht erreicht. Eine regionale ��berlastung der Intensivstationen kann nur noch durch Verlegung von Patient:innen in andere Regionen oder die Konzentration auf das Notfallgesch��ft unter Aussetzen elektiver Behandlungen und Eingriffe ausgeglichen werden. Zus��tzlich sind j��ngst die ersten F��lle der neuen SARS-Coronavirus-Variante ���Omikron��� auch in Deutschland nachgewiesen worden. In dieser Situation stellt sich die Frage, welche Ma��nahmen notwendig sind, wenn der Anstieg der Inzidenz und der Hospitalisierung verlangsamt oder schnell gestoppt werden soll. Kernpunkte sind zuallererst das Impfen und Boostern von 2 % der Bev��lkerung pro Tag, denn das tr��gt deutlich dazu bei, die Inzidenzen in den kommenden Wochen nachhaltig zu senken1. Alle anderen Ma��nahmen dienen der ��berbr��ckung bis eine ausreichende Immunit��t aufgebaut ist. Hier sind vor allem die fl��chendeckende Einf��hrung, Umsetzung und Kontrolle von 3G bis 2G+ Ma��nahmen inklusive medizinischem Mund-Nasen-Schutz hervorzuheben. In den Bundesl��ndern, in denen bereits eine ��berlastung eingetreten ist, sind weiterreichende Ma��nahmen notwendig, wenn man die ��berlastung schnell reduzieren will. Um im Notfall effektiv und ad��quat handeln zu k��nnen, ist es wichtig, dass der gesamte Instrumentenkasten der Pandemie-Bek��mpfung sofort zur Verf��gung steht. Deswegen sollte man jetzt die rechtliche Grundlage f��r einen Not-Schutzschalter und andere weitreichende Ma��nahmen schaffen. Gerade in Hinblick auf die neue Omikron-Variante ist eine solche Vorsorge dringend erforderlich.

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.