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Objectives: This study aims to show the application of flexible statistical methods in real-world cost-effectiveness analyses applied in the cardiovascular field, focusing specifically on the use of proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors for hyperlipidemia. Methods: The proposed method allowed us to use an electronic health database to emulate a target trial for cost-effectiveness analysis using multistate modeling and microsimulation. We formally established the study design and provided precise definitions of the causal measures of interest while also outlining the assumptions necessary for accurately estimating these measures using the available data. Additionally, we thoroughly considered goodness-of-fit assessments and sensitivity analyses of the decision model, which are crucial to capture the complexity of individuals' healthcare pathway and to enhance the validity of this type of health economic models. Results: In the disease model, the Markov assumption was found to be inadequate, and a "time-reset" timescale was implemented together with the use of a time-dependent variable to incorporate past hospitalization history. Furthermore, the microsimulation decision model demonstrated a satisfying goodness of fit, as evidenced by the consistent results obtained in the short-term horizon compared with a nonmodel-based approach. Notably, proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors revealed their favorable cost-effectiveness only in the long-term follow-up, with a minimum willingness to pay of 39 000 Euro/life years gained. Conclusions: The approach demonstrated its significant utility in several ways. Unlike nonmodel-based or alternative model-based methods, it enabled to (1) investigate long-term cost-effectiveness comprehensively, (2) use an appropriate disease model that aligns with the specific problem under study, and (3) conduct subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses to gain more targeted insights.

Recent evidence highlights the usefulness of DNA methylation (DNAm) biomarkers as surrogates for exposure to risk factors for noncommunicable diseases in epidemiological studies and randomized trials. DNAm variability has been demonstrated to be tightly related to lifestyle behavior and exposure to environmental risk factors, ultimately providing an unbiased proxy of an individual state of health. At present, the creation of DNAm surrogates relies on univariate penalized regression models, with elastic-net regularizer being the gold standard when accomplishing the task. Nonetheless, more advanced modeling procedures are required in the presence of multivariate outcomes with a structured dependence pattern among the study samples. In this work we propose a general framework for mixed-effects multitask learning in presence of high-dimensional predictors to develop a multivariate DNAm biomarker from a multicenter study. A penalized estimation scheme, based on an expectation-maximization algorithm, is devised in which any penalty criteria for fixed-effects models can be conveniently incorporated in the fitting process. We apply the proposed methodology to create novel DNAm surrogate biomarkers for multiple correlated risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and comorbidities. We show that the proposed approach, modeling multiple outcomes together, outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives both in predictive power and biomolecular interpretation of the results.

Introduction Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is of key importance in reducing morbidity, disability and mortality worldwide. Observational studies suggest that digital health interventions can be an effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, evidence from large randomised clinical trials is lacking. Methods and analysis The CV-PREVITAL study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised, controlled, open-label interventional trial designed to compare the effectiveness of an educational and motivational mobile health (mHealth) intervention versus usual care in reducing CV risk. The intervention aims at improving diet, physical activity, sleep quality, psycho-behavioural aspects, as well as promoting smoking cessation and adherence to pharmacological treatment for CV risk factors. The trial aims to enrol approximately 80 000 subjects without overt CVDs referring to general practitioners' offices, community pharmacies or clinics of Scientific Institute for Research, Hospitalization and Health Care (Italian acronym IRCCS) affiliated with the Italian Cardiology Network. All participants are evaluated at baseline and after 12 months to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on short-term endpoints, namely improvement in CV risk score and reduction of major CV risk factors. Beyond the funded life of the study, a long-term (7 years) follow-up is also planned to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on the incidence of major adverse CV events. A series of ancillary studies designed to evaluate the effect of the mHealth intervention on additional risk biomarkers are also performed. Ethics and dissemination This study received ethics approval from the ethics committee of the coordinating centre (Monzino Cardiology Center; R1256/20-CCM 1319) and from all other relevant IRBs and ethics committees. Findings are disseminated through scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals and via social media. Partners are informed about the study's

Advanced image analysis, including radiomics, has recently acquired recognition as a source of biomarkers, although there are some technical and methodological challenges to face for its application in the clinic. Among others, proper phenotyping of metastatic or systemic disease where multiple lesions coexist is an issue, since each lesion contributes to characterization of the disease. Therefore, the radiomic profile of each lesion should be modeled into a more complex architecture able to reproduce each “unit” (lesion) as a part of the “entire” (patient). This work aimed to characterize intra-tumor heterogeneity underpinning metastatic prostate cancer using an exhaustive innovative approach which consist of a i) feature transformation method to build an agnostic (i.e., irrespective of pre-existence knowledge, experience, and expertise) radiomic profile of lesions extracted from [18F]FMCH PET/CT, ii) qualitative assessment of intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients, iii) quantitative representation of the intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients in terms of the relationship between their lesions’ profiles, to be associated with prognostic factors. We confirmed that metastatic prostate cancer patients encompassed lesions with different radiomic profiles that exhibited intra-tumor radiomic heterogeneity and that the presence of many radiomic profiles within the same patient impacted the outcome.

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale diagnostic testing and contact tracing have proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of infections.AimTo develop and retrospectively evaluate a system identifying aberrations in the use of selected healthcare services to timely detect COVID-19 outbreaks in small areas.MethodsData were retrieved from the healthcare utilisation (HCU) databases of the Lombardy Region, Italy. We identified eight services suggesting a respiratory infection (syndromic proxies). Count time series reporting the weekly occurrence of each proxy from 2015 to 2020 were generated considering small administrative areas (i.e. census units of Cremona and Mantua provinces). The ability to uncover aberrations during 2020 was tested for two algorithms: the improved Farrington algorithm and the generalised likelihood ratio-based procedure for negative binomial counts. To evaluate these algorithms' performance in detecting outbreaks earlier than the standard surveillance, confirmed outbreaks, defined according to the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, were used as reference. Performances were assessed separately for the first and second semester of the year. Proxies positively impacting performance were identified.ResultsWe estimated that 70% of outbreaks could be detected early using the proposed approach, with a corresponding false positive rate of ca 20%. Performance did not substantially differ either between algorithms or semesters. The best proxies included emergency calls for respiratory or infectious disease causes and emergency room visits.ConclusionImplementing HCU-based monitoring systems in small areas deserves further investigations as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Background: The role of image-derived biomarkers in recurrent oligometastatic Prostate Cancer (PCa) is unexplored. This paper aimed to evaluate [18F]FMCH PET/CT radiomic analysis in patients with recurrent PCa after primary radical therapy. Specifically, we tested intra-patient lesions similarity in oligometastatic and plurimetastatic PCa, comparing the two most used definitions of oligometastatic disease. Methods: PCa patients eligible for [18F]FMCH PET/CT presenting biochemical failure after first-line curative treatments were invited to participate in this prospective observational trial. PET/CT images of 92 patients were visually and quantitatively analyzed. Each patient was classified as oligometastatic or plurimetastatic according to the total number of detected lesions (up to 3 and up to 5 or > 3 and > 5, respectively). Univariate and intra-patient lesions' similarity analysis were performed. Results: [18F]FMCH PET/CT identified 370 lesions, anatomically classified as regional lymph nodes and distant metastases. Thirty-eight and 54 patients were designed oligometastatic and plurimetastatic, respectively, using a 3-lesion threshold. The number of oligometastic scaled up to 60 patients (thus 32 plurimetastatic patients) with a 5-lesion threshold. Similarity analysis showed high lesions' heterogeneity. Grouping patients according to the number of metastases, patients with oligometastatic PCa defined with a 5-lesion threshold presented lesions heterogeneity comparable to plurimetastic patients. Lesions within patients having a limited tumor burden as defined by three lesions were characterized by less heterogeneity. Conclusions: We found a comparable heterogeneity between patients with up to five lesions and plurimetastic patients, while patients with up to three lesions were less heterogeneous than plurimetastatic patients, featuring different cells phenotypes in the two groups. Our results supported the use of a 3-lesion threshold to define oligometastati

Personalized medicine is the future of medical practice. In oncology, tumor heterogeneity assessment represents a pivotal step for effective treatment planning and prognosis prediction. Despite new procedures for DNA sequencing and analysis, non-invasive methods for tumor characterization are needed to impact on daily routine. On purpose, imaging texture analysis is rapidly scaling, holding the promise to surrogate histopathological assessment of tumor lesions. In this work, we propose a tree-based representation strategy for describing intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients affected by metastatic cancer. We leverage radiomics information extracted from PET/CT imaging and we provide an exhaustive and easily readable summary of the disease spreading. We exploit this novel patient representation to perform cancer subtyping according to hierarchical clustering technique. To this purpose, a new heterogeneity-based distance between trees is defined and applied to a case study of prostate cancer. Clusters interpretation is explored in terms of concordance with severity status, tumor burden and biological characteristics. Results are promising, as the proposed method outperforms current literature approaches. Ultimately, the proposed method draws a general analysis framework that would allow to extract knowledge from daily acquired imaging data of patients and provide insights for effective treatment planning.

This paper proposes a clustering procedure for samples of multivariate functions in (L2(I))J, with J≥ 1. This method is based on a k-means algorithm in which the distance between the curves is measured with a metric that generalizes the Mahalanobis distance in Hilbert spaces, considering the correlation and the variability along all the components of the functional data. The proposed procedure has been studied in simulation and compared with the k-means based on other distances typically adopted for clustering multivariate functional data. In these simulations, it is shown that the k-means algorithm with the generalized Mahalanobis distance provides the best clustering performances, both in terms of mean and standard deviation of the number of misclassified curves. Finally, the proposed method has been applied to two case studies, concerning ECG signals and growth curves, where the results obtained in simulation are confirmed and strengthened.

OBJECTIVES: Although it has been postulated that patients might benefit from the centralization of high-volume specialized centres, conflicting results have been reported on the relationship between the number of lung resections performed and the long-term, all-cause mortality rates among patients who underwent surgery for lung cancer. A population-based observational study was performed to contribute to the ongoing debate. METHODS: The 2613 patients, all residents of the Lombardy region (Italy), who underwent lung resection for lung cancer from 2012 to 2014 were entered into the cohort and were followed until 2018. The hospitals were classified according to the annual number of pulmonary resections performed. Three categories of lung resection cases were identified: low (≤30), intermediate (31-95) and high (>95). The outcome of interest was all-cause death. A frailty model was used to estimate the death risk associated with the categories of numbers of lung resections performed, taking into account the multilevel structure of the data. A set of sensitivity analyses was performed to account for sources of systematic uncertainty. RESULTS: The 1-year and 5-year survival rates of cohort members were 90% and 63%. Patients operated on in high-volume centres were on average younger and more often women. Compared to patients operated on in a low-volume centre, the mortality risk exhibited a significant, progressive reduction as the numbers of lung resections performed increased to intermediate (-13%; 95% confidence interval +10% to-31%) and high (-26%; 0% to-45%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the association was consistent. CONCLUSIONS: Further evidence that the volume of lung resection cases performed strongly affects the long-term survival of lung cancer patients has been supplied.

Objective: To determine whether out-of-hospital healthcare and adverse outcomes are better in stroke patients admitted to a neurology ward compared with those admitted to general wards. Methods: Beneficiaries of the National Health Service from the Italian Lombardy Region who were discharged alive after hospital admission during the year 2009 for ischemic stroke (9776 patients) or intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage (1102 patients) entered into the cohort and were followed until 2012. Exposure of interest was the ward type where inpatients were admitted (neuro vs. general wards). Outcomes were out-of-hospital healthcare (i.e., drug prescriptions, diagnostic procedures, and laboratory clinical evaluations) and adverse clinical outcomes (i.e., all-cause death and hospital readmission). Exposure-outcome associations were investigated. High-dimensional propensity score methodology was used for taking into account confounders. Mediation analysis was used to verify whether the association between ward type and clinical outcomes is mediated by out-of-hospital adherence to healthcare. Results: Better adherence to out-of-hospital healthcare received from patients discharged from neuro, rather than general, wards was observed being the proportions of adherent patients 42.4% and 39.5%, respectively. Compared with general wards, discharge from neuro was associated with reduced 3-year emergency admissions (from 50.1 to 47.5% among ischemic stroke patients) and reduced 3-year mortality (from 37.5 to 27.0% among hemorrhagic stroke patients). From 10 to 15% of outcome risk, reductions were mediated by better adherence to out-of-hospital healthcare. Conclusions: For patients with acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, admission to neuro vs. general wards is associated with better out-of-hospital healthcare and long-term adverse outcomes.

Recently, response-adaptive designs have been proposed in randomized clinical trials to achieve ethical and/or cost advantages by using sequential accrual information collected during the trial to dynamically update the probabilities of treatment assignments. In this context, urn models—where the probability to assign patients to treatments is interpreted as the proportion of balls of different colors available in a virtual urn—have been used as response-adaptive randomization rules. We propose the use of Randomly Reinforced Urn (RRU) models in a simulation study based on a published randomized clinical trial on the efficacy of home enteral nutrition in cancer patients after major gastrointestinal surgery. We compare results with the RRU design with those previously published with the non-adaptive approach. We also provide a code written with the R software to implement the RRU design in practice. In detail, we simulate 10,000 trials based on the RRU model in three set-ups of different total sample sizes. We report information on the number of patients allocated to the inferior treatment and on the empirical power of the t-test for the treatment coefficient in the ANOVA model. We carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of different urn compositions. For each sample size, in approximately 75% of the simulation runs, the number of patients allocated to the inferior treatment by the RRU design is lower, as compared to the non-adaptive design. The empirical power of the t-test for the treatment effect is similar in the two designs.

Recently, response-adaptive designs have been proposed in randomized clinical trials to achieve ethical and/or cost advantages by using sequential accrual information collected during the trial to dynamically update the probabilities of treatment assignments. In this context, urn models—where the probability to assign patients to treatments is interpreted as the proportion of balls of different colors available in a virtual urn—have been used as response-adaptive randomization rules. We propose the use of Randomly Reinforced Urn (RRU) models in a simulation study based on a published randomized clinical trial on the efficacy of home enteral nutrition in cancer patients after major gastrointestinal surgery. We compare results with the RRU design with those previously published with the non-adaptive approach. We also provide a code written with the R software to implement the RRU design in practice. In detail, we simulate 10,000 trials based on the RRU model in three set-ups of different total sample sizes. We report information on the number of patients allocated to the inferior treatment and on the empirical power of the t-test for the treatment coefficient in the ANOVA model. We carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of different urn compositions. For each sample size, in approximately 75% of the simulation runs, the number of patients allocated to the inferior treatment by the RRU design is lower, as compared to the non-adaptive design. The empirical power of the t-test for the treatment effect is similar in the two designs.