Search

During the winter, the cold wave activity over the mid-high latitudes has profound impacts on agriculture, economic and human wellbeing. Such extreme weather events have been connected with the East Asia winter monsoon system and significantly influence the climate over the Eurasian continent. However, the multidecadal variabilities and regional interconnections of the cold wave activity across the Northern Hemisphere are lesser-known. In this study, we investigate the multidecadal variations in the cold wave frequency (CWF) and find an inverse relationship between Greenland and central Eurasia. Observational and modeling evidence suggests that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is likely to be the driving force of the multidecadal seesaw in CWF, while the effects of the Arctic sea ice are very limited. The increased sea surface temperature (SST) in association with the AMO warms the subpolar troposphere and weakens the predominant westerlies over mid-high latitudes, resulting in positive geopotential height anomalies over the subpolar region. This further weakens the Icelandic Low and strengthens the Siberian High, which directly induces the warming (cooling) over Greenland (central Eurasia). There is a strong coherence between the mean state of surface air temperature and temperature extremes. The AMO-induced warming/cooling in Greenland/central Eurasia corresponds well with less/more frequent cold wave activities. Our results provide new insight into the multidecadal variability of cold wave activities and suggest that the CWF in the Northern Hemisphere may be interlinked.

An analysis is carried out to estimate features of the atmospheric centers of action (ACA) in the Northern and Southern hemispheres using different long-term reanalysis data. The variability of ACAs and their relation to the hemispheric temperature and key climatic modes, including the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation is analyzed. According to long-term data, it is found that the centennial hemispheric warming is accompanied by a significant weakening of the polar highs and the Greenland High that is more significant in summer. The deepening of the Icelandic Low, especially in summer, and the Aleutian Low, especially in winter, is shown. A significant weakening of the winter Siberian and North American highs and a deepening of the summer North American Low are also revealed. In the Southern Hemisphere, all three subpolar oceanic lows and the Mascarene High significantly intensify under warming conditions, while the summer Australian and South African lows weaken.

This study assesses Arctic cyclone characteristics and associated precipitation and surface wind speeds using an ensemble of regional climate model (GEMCLIM) simulations at 0.5° resolution for the 1981–2099 period following the RCP8.5 scenario. Comparison of GEMCLIM simulation with observations for current climate (1981–2010) suggests that GEMCLIM realistically reproduces the spatial and seasonal variation of Arctic cyclone frequency and intensity, and associated precipitation, for winter and summer. Clear added-value is found for several regions, compared to the driving data. The pressure-wind speed relationships for each region are reasonably reproduced and more extreme winds associated with increasing cyclone intensity are realistically simulated. In addition, the spatial and temporal variations of observed extreme cyclones are well captured. In future climate (2070–2099), the winter cyclone intensity and frequency, and associated precipitation, are projected to increase and decrease over the Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions, respectively. For summer, the projected changes are relatively smaller than those for winter and vary with region. Interestingly, significant decreases in cyclone contribution to total precipitation are found for northern Canada and Eurasia regions, despite increases in cyclone-related precipitation amount. This suggests stronger influence of mesoscale systems on precipitation compared to synoptic-scale systems. Enhanced pressure-wind speed relationships are projected for Arctic Canada and the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. The increase of extreme cyclones during autumn is primarily related to sea ice loss during summer, while for winter, large-scale circulation changes (i.e. Arctic dipole) are mostly responsible due to strong sea ice loss in the central Arctic during autumn. This study demonstrates the added-value of dynamic downscaling with respect to Arctic cyclone characteristics and associated surface variables and provides useful insights regarding their future projections for use in risk assessment studies.

Fluctuations in the path of the Gulf Stream (GS) have been previously studied by primarily connecting to either the wind-driven subtropical gyre circulation or buoyancy forcing via the subpolar gyre. Here we present a statistical model for 1 year predictions of the GS path (represented by the GS northern wall—GSNW) between urn:x-wiley:21699275:media:jgrc24667:jgrc24667-math-0001W and urn:x-wiley:21699275:media:jgrc24667:jgrc24667-math-0002W incorporating both mechanisms in a combined framework. An existing model with multiple parameters including the previous year's GSNW index, center location, and amplitude of the Icelandic Low and the Southern Oscillation Index was augmented with basin-wide Ekman drift over the Azores High. The addition of the wind is supported by a validation of the simpler two-layer Parsons-Veronis model of GS separation over the last 40 years. A multivariate analysis was carried out to compare 1-year-in-advance forecast correlations from four different models. The optimal predictors of the best performing model include: (a) the GSNW index from the previous year, (b) gyre-scale integrated Ekman Drift over the past 2 years, and (c) longitude of the Icelandic Low center lagged by 3 years. The forecast correlation over the 27 years (1994–2020) is 0.65, an improvement from the previous multi-parameter model's forecast correlation of 0.52. The improvement is attributed to the addition of the wind-drift component. The sensitivity of forecasting the GS path after extreme atmospheric years is quantified. Results indicate the possibility of better understanding and enhanced predictability of the dominant wind-driven variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and of fisheries management models that use the GS path as a metric.

Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) proxy evidence of surface wind direction across eastern and midcontinental North America comes primarily from loess and dune deposits, and overwhelmingly suggests surface winds had a strong westerly component. However, the season of sediment deposition and the temporal scale of wind information preserved in these deposits remains uncertain. Furthermore, paleoclimate model simulations over the last several decades have indicated a predominance of easterly winds across this region, due to the presence of an anticyclone over the Laurentide Ice Sheet as well as katabatic winds flowing off the ice sheet and over the adjacent land surface. Here we reassess model-data near-surface wind direction agreement using nine general circulation models participating in the LGM experiment of the third Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and a compilation of previously published paleowind directions from loess and dune deposits dating to the LGM. We find the highest overall model-proxy data agreement in winter (December–February), indicating predominantly westerly winds across the region in the LGM model simulations. We also find high zonal and meridional wind direction agreement in spring (March–May) and fall (September–November) in many models. Winter, spring and fall also have faster mean daily near-surface wind speeds in the LGM simulations relative to pre-industrial control simulations. Thus, this model-data assessment suggests LGM aeolian deposition in the study region likely occurred dominantly in these three seasons, at times when local conditions favorable for aeolian deflation coincided with high wind speed events. Models that agree best with the proxy data have strengthened Aleutian and Icelandic Low pressure systems and a weakened Laurentide High pressure system, which constrains the spatial footprint of the Laurentide High to the ice sheet, reducing northeasterly winds near the ice sheet margin. A weaker Laurentide High in turn coincides with warmer surface temperatures over the ice sheet and the North Atlantic. The strength and location of semi-permanent pressure systems were thus key controls on surface wind direction across midcontinental and eastern North America during the LGM.

The North Atlantic-Arctic boundary is highly variable due to the transports of heat and moisture through the Gulf Stream and polar jet stream. The North Atlantic storm track generally follows the Gulf Stream and terminates near southeast Greenland and Iceland as the Icelandic Low. The Icelandic Low is the main driver of the North Atlantic Oscillation, particularly during winter months as the baroclinic zone expands to lower latitudes, correlating with temperature and precipitation in many areas around the North Atlantic. Understanding how atmospheric circulation, temperature, and precipitation changes in this region is important to build robust projections of how these variables will change, especially under natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here, climate proxies correlating to the Icelandic Low, summer air temperature, and annual precipitation build an understanding of how these variables changed over the last 2000 years. Through the natural climate shifts of this period — Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages Cold Period, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and Little Ice Age — it is shown that storm frequency decreases as temperature increases and the Icelandic Low increases in pressure (i.e., becomes weaker). However, these climate changes are not simultaneous, and their amplitudes are not similar across the region. Keeping regionality rather than a pan-Arctic average better explains natural variability of each sub-region and how each sub-region has evolved climatically due to anthropogenic forcings of greenhouse gases.

Previous work to find an association between variations of annually averaged Florida Current transport and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have yielded negative results (Meinen et al. 2010). Here we show that Florida current in winter is impacted by displacements in the positions of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low, the constituent pressure centers of the NAO. As a one-dimensional representation of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation, the NAO index does not distinguish displacements of the pressure centers from fluctuations in their intensity. Florida Current transport is significantly correlated with Icelandic Low longitude with a lag of less than one season. We carried out perturbation experiments in the ECCOv4 model to investigate these correlations. These experiments reveal that east-west shifts of the Icelandic Low perturb the wind stress in mid-latitudes adjacent to the American coast, driving downwelling (through longshore winds) and offshore sea level anomalies (through wind stress curl) which travel to the Florida Straits within the same season. Florida Current transport is also correlated with the latitude variations of both the Icelandic Low and the Azores High with a lag of four years. Regression analysis shows that latitude variations of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High are associated with positive wind stress curl anomalies over extended regions in the ocean east of Florida. Rossby wave propagation from this region to the Florida Straits has been suggested as a mechanism for perturbing FCT transport in several previous studies (DiNezio et al. 2009; Czeschel et al. 2012; Frajka-Williams et al. 2013; Domingues et al. 2016, 2019).

A driving factor of the winter weather in Western Europe is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), manifested by fluctuations in the difference of sea level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Different methods have been developed that describe the strength of this oscillation, but they rely on certain assumptions, e.g., fixed positions of these two pressure systems. It is possible that climate change affects the mean location of both the Low and the High and thus the validity of these descriptive methods. This study is the first to visually analyze large ensemble climate change simulations (the MPI Grand Ensemble) to robustly assess shifts of the drivers of the NAO phenomenon using the uncertain northern hemispheric surface pressure fields. For this, we use a sliding window approach and compute empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) for each window and ensemble member, then compare the uncertainty of local extrema in the results as well as their temporal evolution across different CO 2 scenarios. We find systematic northeastward shifts in the location of the pressure systems that correlate with the simulated warming. Applying visualization techniques for this analysis was not straightforward; we reflect and give some lessons learned for the field of visualization.

Greenland’s largest precipitation flux occurs in its southeast (SE) region during the winter, controlled primarily by easterly winds and frequent cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic. Several studies have attempted to link SE Greenland precipitation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but results are inconsistent. This work uses reanalysis, automatic weather station data, and regional climate model output to show that the east–west position of the Icelandic low is a better predictor of SE Greenland precipitation (average correlation of r = −0.48 in DJF) than climate indices such as the NAO (r = −0.06 in DJF). In years when the Icelandic low is positioned extremely west, moisture transport increases up to ~40% (or up to 40 kg m−1 s−1) off the SE Greenland coast compared to when the low is in an extreme east position. Furthermore, in years when the Icelandic low is positioned extremely west, storm track density and intensity increase just off the SE coast of Greenland. Thus, the Icelandic low’s longitudinal position dominates SE Greenland ice sheet’s wintertime precipitation, a positive term in the ice sheet mass balance. Given SE Greenland’s importance in the overall ice sheet mass balance, the position of the Icelandic low is therefore important for making projections of future sea level.

The formation of the Arctic cell associated with the two-wave middle-high latitude circulation, which is a major atmospheric circulation common to the three-cell and four-cell mean meridional circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, is analyzed using a long period of reanalysis data. In the context of the two-wave middle-high latitude circulation, when the high near the Arctic region from 120°E to 80°W (AH120E80W) weakens and withdraws eastward and the low near the Arctic region from 80°W to 120°E (AL80W120E) strengthens and expands northeastward, the Arctic tends to be controlled by obvious low pressure and associated upward motion, leading to the formation of the Arctic cell. The eastward withdrawal of the AH120E80W is attributed to an eastward retreat of the North Pacific Low, because it promotes the strong anticyclonic wind shear associated with the maintenance of the AH120E80W to migrate eastward. The eastward retreat of the North Pacific Low is induced by the decrease in the width of the East Asian Trough, which results from the response of the high terrain in Central Asia to the weakening of middle-latitude westerly winds caused by a northward shift of the Azores High. On the other hand, the eastward withdrawal of the AH120E80W results in the decay of the Arctic high, causing the winds near the Arctic to change from easterly to westerly. At the same time, the northward shift of the Azores High promotes the strong Icelandic Low to expand poleward. The combination of the Arctic westerly winds and the poleward expansion of the strong Icelandic Low leads to the northeastward expansion of the AL80W120E.

Poleward atmospheric moisture transport (AMT) into the Arctic Ocean can change atmospheric moisture or water vapor content and cause cloud formation and redistribution, which may change downward longwave radiation and, in turn, surface energy budgets, air temperatures, and sea-ice production and melt. In this study, we found a consistently enhanced poleward AMT across 60°N since 1959 based on the NCAR–NCEP reanalysis. Regional analysis demonstrates that the poleward AMT predominantly occurs over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions, contributing about 57% and 32%, respectively, to the total transport. To improve our understanding of the driving force for this enhanced poleward AMT, we explored the role that extratropical cyclone activity may play. Climatologically, about 207 extratropical cyclones move across 60°N into the Arctic Ocean each year, among which about 66 (32% of the total) and 47 (23%) originate from the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean, respectively. When analyzing the linear trends of the time series constructed by using a 20-year running window, we found a positive correlation of 0.70 between poleward yearly AMT and the integrated cyclone activity index (measurement of cyclone intensity, number, and duration). This shows the consistent multidecadal changes between these two parameters and may suggest cyclone activity plays a driving role in the enhanced poleward AMT. Furthermore, a composite analysis indicates that intensification and poleward extension of the Icelandic low and accompanying strengthened cyclone activity play an important role in enhancing poleward AMT over the North Atlantic region.

Problem Statement and Purpose. Since the atmospheric circulation is the main manifestation of climate change as covering all components of weather conditions is of interest to investigate the effect of this constitutive of climate factor on the formation fields of precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region due to global climate change. The purpose of this article is to determine the impact of major Northern Hemisphere teleconnections the regime of precipitation on the territory of Ukraine in the winter season using physical-statistical approach. Data & Methods. To study the relationship between climate parameters in the western part of the Eurasian continent used series of monthly sums of precipitation (December, January, February) at 30 weather stations Ukraine, evenly spaced on its territory, climate NAO index and climate NCP index for the period 1976-2005. The implementation of tasks using the component and correlation analysis, research methods and statistical structure of non-stationary time series. Results. Results of the study impact of major Northern Hemisphere teleconnections on precipitation regime on the territory of Ukraine in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, which made for long-term data indicate ambiguity of these processes in different seasons. With component analysis performed random fields parameterization monthly rainfall in 30 stations of Ukraine for the period 1976-2005 years. Perennial field were presented two (three) uncorrelated parameters (major components) linearly connected components of the original vector and therefore are generalized characteristics of rainfall during the winter season for the whole territory of Ukraine. Provided ≥ 70% in January, the first two eigenvalues (two eigenvectors and two major components) 71.6% of the total exhaust dispersion field precipitation in December and February – the first three (respectively 70.8% and 71.2%). Time Series Analysis Principal Component possible to determine the interannual variability of component long-time – 3-5 years in December and February and 5-9 years – in January. Also since the 90s trend to increase rainfall in Ukraine in January and February; in December – on the contrary. We believe that this trend will continue until 2020. The impact of the North Caspian Marine fluctuations (PMKK) on the formation of precipitation winter season in Ukraine has close (mainly inverse) linear correlation and only state in December PMKK sees a direct correlation with the regime of precipitation in January in our countries. The value of pair correlation coefficients indicate statistically significant (P = 90%) tight line (direct and inverse) correlation between monthly rainfall in Ukraine in the winter season with the North Atlantic oscillation. In the central month of the winter season dominated by the positive phase PMKK – in the western pole PMKK (waters of the North Sea) was observed strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increased cyclonic activity that resulted in a northeast movement of air masses in Central Europe. The statistical time series structure NAO index in January indicates a predominance of positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation in this period, which contributed to expansion of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, and this situation leads to increased zonal circulation.

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Sears Foundation for Marine Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Research 75 (2017): 605-639, doi:10.1357/002224017822109505.

The surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet has decreased in recent decades with important implications for global sea-level rise. Here, a climate reanalysis model is used to examine observed circulation variability and changes in precipitation across southern Greenland to gain insight into the future climate in the region. The influence on precipitation from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Icelandic Low, Azores High, regional blocking patterns, as well as near-surface temperature and winds are explored. Statistically significant correlations are higher between precipitation and the Icelandic Low and near-surface winds (0.5–0.7; p < 0.05) than correlations between precipitation and either the NAO or AMO climate indices (southwest Greenland: r = 0.12 and 0.28, respectively; and southeast Greenland: r = 0.25 and -0.07, respectively). Moreover, the recent enhanced warming in the Arctic (Arctic amplification) and the increase in the Greenland Blocking Index coincide with increased mean annual precipitation and interannual variability in southwest Greenland.

The upstream sources and pathways of the Denmark Strait Overflow Water and their variability have been investigated using a high-resolution model hindcast. This global simulation covers the period from 1948 to 2009 and uses a fine model mesh (1/20°) to resolve mesoscale features and the complex current structure north of Iceland explicitly. The three sources of the Denmark Strait Overflow, the shelfbreak East Greenland Current (EGC), the separated EGC, and the North Icelandic Jet, have been analyzed using Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. The shelfbreak EGC contributes the largest fraction in terms of volume and freshwater transport to the Denmark Strait Overflow and is the main driver of the overflow variability. The North Icelandic Jet contributes the densest water to the Denmark Strait Overflow and shows only small temporal transport variations. During summer, the net volume and freshwater transports to the south are reduced. On interannual time scales, these transports are highly correlated with the large-scale wind stress curl around Iceland and, to some extent, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced southward transports during positive phases. The Lagrangian trajectories support the existence of a hypothesized overturning loop along the shelfbreak north of Iceland, where water carried by the North Icelandic Irminger Current is transformed and feeds the North Icelandic Jet. Monitoring these two currents and the region north of the Iceland shelfbreak could provide the potential to track long-term changes in the Denmark Strait Overflow and thus also the AMOC.

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

In the northern hemisphere, there are six permanent or semi-permanent atmospheric activity centers, namely the Icelandic Low, Aleutian Low, India Low, Mongolia High, North Pacific High, and North Atlantic High. The first four are semi-permanent action centers and the last two are permanent circulation systems. The India Low exists only during the summer. By using 160 years (1850–2009) of monthly mean sea level pressure data from the Hadley Centre in the UK, we conduct a comprehensive study of the five boreal winter atmospheric centers of action (ACAs). Based on a unified definition and a method determined in previous studies, we calculate the indices of areal coverage (S), intensity (P), and position of action center (λ c, φ c) for each of these five ACAs. Through an in-depth analysis of these indices and their relationships with climate variables, we evaluate the indices by describing and explaining areal climate anomalies, particularly precipitation and temperature anomalies in China. We show that (1) ACAs significantly influence the climate anomalies of surrounding areas (2) the influences of oceanic ACAs are larger and the intensity anomalies of ACAs have a greater impact than their location displacement, and (3) ACAs exert more control on temperature than they do on precipitation. For the two ACAs over the north Atlantic, the impacts of their intensities on the anomalies of temperature and precipitation are similar. For the two ACAs over the north Pacific, their influences are almost the opposite. The most influential ACA for climate anomalies in China during the boreal winter is HMO. When HMO is stronger, China has a colder winter and it is wetter in the north. With stronger ACAs in the upstream, i.e., the Icelandic Low and North Atlantic High, northern China has a warmer winter. The ACAs over the north Pacific exert little influence on climate anomalies in China during winter. The analyses presented in this paper provide a set of useful indices for defining and describing ACAs, and they suggest insightful applications for these indices.

The Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are two dominant modes of low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Generally these two patterns are separable and uncorrelated in both space and time. However, dating back to the 1970s there have been studies which have linked the Aleutian and Icelandic low intensities, and shown that a significant temporal correlation does, on occasion, occur. Each of these semi-permanent low pressure systems is a part of the PNA and NAO patterns, respectively, and therefore, given a link between the two semi-permanent low pressure systems, we explore whether a link between the PNA and NAO also appears. Recently studies have found such a link during the winters of certain decades. The present study, documents an observed relationship between the PNA and NAO which is consistently present during the spring and early summer. This relationship is shown to be due to the fact that the PNA and NAO are spatially overlapping projections of the same pattern of variability, given by the first EOF of 500 hPa geopotential height. Both the PNA and NAO patterns correlate more strongly to the first EOF’s spatial pattern, resembling the Aleutian low-Icelandic low seesaw pattern, than the rotated EOF (REOF) loading patterns used to compute their respective indices. Furthermore, when the two patterns are correlated, the effect of El-Nino on the Northern Hemisphere is separate from the pattern associated with the PNA. Finally, we examine a 21-year period in the winter for which the PNA and NAO are significantly correlated, and find that the conclusions drawn from the spring hold true. The results presented herein demonstrate that defining the PNA and NAO based upon typical loading patterns may not be the ideal approach; especially given that the patterns are spatially similar and covary in time.

We use a regionally coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere-hydrological discharge model to investigate the influence of changes in the atmospheric large-scale circulation on the interannual variability of the Arctic freshwater (FW) components. This model includes all sinks and sources of FW and allows for the analysis of a closed FW cycle in the Arctic. We show that few atmospheric winter modes explain large parts of the interannual variability of the Arctic FW cycle. A strong Icelandic low causing anomalous strong westerlies over the North Atlantic leads to warmer and wetter conditions over Eurasia. The ocean circulation is then characterized by a strong transpolar drift leading to increased export of FW in liquid and solid form into the North Atlantic. In contrast to this, a weaker than usual Icelandic low and a strong Siberian high is associated with a strong Beaufort Gyre and thus an accumulation of FW within the Arctic Ocean. Not only specific winter conditions but also increased precipitation in late spring and summer, caused by enhanced cyclone activity over land, lead to increased Eurasian runoff, which is responsible for most of the variability in Arctic river runoff.

Large-scale atmospheric pressure centers, such as the Aleutian and Icelandic Low, have a demonstrated relationship with physical lake characteristics in contemporary monitoring studies, but the responses to these phenomena are rarely observed in lake records. We observe coherent changes in the stratification patterns of three deep (>30 m) lakes inferred from fossil diatom assemblages as a response to shifts in the location and intensity of the Aleutian Low and compare these changes with similar long-term changes observed in the δ18O record from the Yukon. Specifically, these records indicate that between 3.2 and 1.4 ka, the Aleutian Low shifted westward, resulting in an increased frequency of storm tracks across the Pacific Northwest during winter and spring. This change in atmospheric circulation ultimately produced deeper mixing in the upper waters of these three lake systems. Enhanced stratification between 4.5 and 3.3 ka and from 1.3 ka to present suggests a strengthened Aleutian Low and more meridional circulation.

The Gulf Stream’s north wall east of Cape Hatteras marks the abrupt change in velocity and water properties between the slope sea to the north and the Gulf Stream itself. An index of the north wall position constructed by Taylor and Stephens, called Gulf Stream north wall (GSNW), is analyzed in terms of interannual changes in the Icelandic low (IL) pressure anomaly and longitudinal displacement. Sea surface temperature (SST) composites suggest that when IL pressure is anomalously low, there are lower temperatures in the Labrador Sea and south of the Grand Banks. Two years later, warm SST anomalies are seen over the Northern Recirculation Gyre and a northward shift in the GSNW occurs. Similar changes in SSTs occur during winters in which the IL is anomalously west, resulting in a northward displacement of the GSNW 3 years later. Although time lags of 2 and 3 years between the IL and the GSNW are used in the calculations, it is shown that lags with respect to each atmospheric variable are statistically significant at the 5% level over a range of years. Utilizing the appropriate time lags between the GSNW index and the IL pressure and longitude, as well as the Southern Oscillation index, a regression prediction scheme is developed for forecasting the GSNW with a lead time of 1 year. This scheme, which uses only prior information, was used to forecast the GSNW from 1994 to 2015. The correlation between the observed and forecasted values for 1994–2014 was 0.60, significant at the 1% level. The predicted value for 2015 indicates a small northward shift of the GSNW from its 2014 position.

We examine secular changes and multidecadal climate variability on a seasonal scale in northern France over the last 500 years and examine the extent to which they are driven by large-scale atmospheric variability. Multiscale trend analysis and segmentation procedures show statistically significant increases of winter and spring precipitation amounts in Paris since the end of the 19th century. This changes the seasonal precipitation distribution from one with a pronounced summer peak at the end of the Little Ice Age to an almost uniform distribution in the 20th century. This switch is linked to an early warming trend in winter temperature. Changes in spring precipitation are also correlated with winter precipitation for time scales greater than 50 years, which suggests a seasonal persistence. Hydrological modelling results show similar rising trends in river flow for the Seine at Paris. However, such secular trends in the seasonal climatic conditions over northern France are substantially modulated by irregular multidecadal (50–80 years) fluctuations. Furthermore, since the end of the 19th century, we find an increasing variance in multidecadal hydroclimatic winter and spring, and this coincides with an increase in the multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability, suggesting a significant influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. However, multidecadal NAO variability has decreased in summer. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, we detect multidecadal North Atlantic sea-level pressure anomalies, which are significantly linked to the NAO during the Modern period. In particular, a south-eastward (south-westward) shift of the Icelandic Low (Azores High) drives substantial multidecadal changes in spring. Wetter springs are likely to be driven by potential changes in moisture advection from the Atlantic, in response to northward shifts of North Atlantic storm tracks over European regions, linked to periods of positive NAO. Similar, but smaller, changes in rainfall are observed in winter.

Winter (October to March) precipitation δ18OP and δDP values in central Europe correlate with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (wNAOi), but the causal mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here we analyse the relationships between precipitation-weighted δ18OP and δDP datasets (δ18Opw and δDpw) from European GNIP and ANIP stations and the wNAOi, with a focus on isotope gradients. We demonstrate that longitudinal δ18Opw and δDpw gradients across Europe (“continental effect”) depend on the wNAOi state, with steeper gradients associated with more negative wNAOi states. Changing gradients reflect a combination of air temperature and variable amounts of precipitable water as a function of the wNAOi. The relationships between the wNAOi, δ18Opw and δDpw can provide additional information from palaeoclimate archives such as European speleothems that primarily record winter δ18Opw. Comparisons between present-day and past European longitudinal δ18O gradients inferred from Holocene speleothems suggest that atmospheric pressure configurations akin to negative wNAO modes dominated the early Holocene, whereas patterns resembling positive wNAO modes were more common in the late Holocene, possibly caused by persistent shifts in the relative locations of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low.

Hydrographic data acquired in Kangerdlugssuaq Fjord and adjacent seas in 1993 and 2004 are used together with reanalysis from the NEMO ocean modelling framework to elucidate water-mass change and ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions in East Greenland. The hydrographic data show that the fjord contains warm subtropical waters and that fjord waters in 2004 were considerably warmer than in 1993. The ocean reanalysis shows that the warm properties of fjord waters in 2004 are related to a major peak in oceanic shoreward heat flux into a cross-shelf trough on the outer continental shelf. The heat flux into this trough varies according to seasonal exchanges with the atmosphere as well as from deep seasonal intrusions of subtropical waters. Both mechanisms contribute to high (low) shoreward heat flux when winds from the northeast are weak (strong). The combined effect of surface heating and inflow of subtropical waters is seen in the hydrographic data, which were collected after periods when along-shore coastal winds from the north were strong (1993) and weak (2004). The latter data were furthermore acquired during the early phase of a prolonged retreat of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. We show that coastal winds vary according to the pressure gradient defined by a semi-permanent atmospheric high-pressure system over Greenland and a persistent atmospheric low situated near Iceland. The magnitude of this pressure gradient is controlled by longitudinal variability in the position of the Icelandic Low.

The origin of the decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated in a series of coupled and ocean-only numerical experiments. Two versions of the IPSL-CM5A model are considered, differing only by their atmospheric horizontal resolution (3.75 degrees x1.87 degrees and 2.5 degrees x1.25 degrees). When the ocean model is forced by the climatological surface fluxes from the low atmospheric resolution coupled model version, a 20-year variability emerges, similar to the variability found in the coupled simulation. Such decadal variability is consistent with a large-scale baroclinic instability of the mean flow in the west European basin. Increasing the atmospheric resolution leads to a more intense Icelandic low, which intensifies the western subpolar gyre, and warms the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre region. The mean state changes nearly vanish the associated internal oceanic variability under the corresponding climatological surface fluxes. Increasing the atmospheric resolution also produces a slightly weaker atmospheric stochastic forcing. Both the mean state and atmospheric variability changes are consistent with the decreasing amplitude of the variability in the coupled model. For both model versions, the amplitude of the internal oceanic variability is strongly enhanced in the presence of atmospheric stochastic forcing. Air-sea coupling on the other hand has a moderate influence on the amplitude of the variability only in the low-resolution model version, where the North Atlantic oceanic variability at 20years increases by 23% due to coupling. The coupling effect is therefore modest and sensitive to the atmospheric horizontal resolution.

The synoptic circulation over Saudi Arabia is complicated and frequently governed by the effect of large-scale pressure systems. In this work, we used NCEP-NCAR global data to illustrate the relationship between climatic variables and the main pressure systems that affect the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia, and also to investigate the influence of these pressure systems on surface air temperature (SAT) and rainfall over the region in the winter season. It was found that there are two primary patterns of pressure that influence the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia. The first occurs in cases of a strengthening Subtropical High (SubH), a weakening Siberian High (SibH), a deepening of the Icelandic Low (IceL), or a weakening of the Sudanese Low (SudL). During this pattern, the SubH combines with the SibH and an obvious increase of sea level pressure (SLP) occurs over southern European, the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East. This belt of high pressure prevents interaction between midlatitude and extratropical systems, which leads to a decrease in the SAT, relative humidity (RH) and rainfall over Saudi Arabia. The second pattern occurs in association with a weakening of the SubH, a strengthening of the SibH, a weakening of the IceL, or a deepening of the SudL. The pattern arising in this case leads to an interaction between two different air masses: the first (cold moist) air mass is associated with the Mediterranean depression travelling from west to east, while the second (warm moist) air mass is associated with the northward oscillation of the SudL and its inverted V-shape trough. The interaction between these two air masses increases the SAT, RH and the probability of rainfall over Saudi Arabia, especially over the northwest and northeast regions.

Large scale atmospheric oscillations are known to have an influence on waves in the North Atlantic. In quantifying how the wave and wind climate of this region may change towards the end of the century due to climate change, it is useful to investigate the influence of large scale oscillations using indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: fluctuations in the difference between the Icelandic low pressure system and the Azore high pressure system). In this study a statistical analysis of the station-based NAO index was carried out using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations, where EC-Earth is a European-developed atmosphere ocean sea-ice coupled climate model. The NAO index was compared to observations and to projected changes in the index by the end of the century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. In addition, an ensemble of EC-Earth driven WAVEWATCH III wave model projections over the North Atlantic was analysed to determine the correlations between the NAO and significant wave height (Hs) and the NAO and extreme ocean states. For the most part, no statistically significant differences were found between the distributions of observed and modelled station-based NAO or in projected distributions of the NAO. Means and extremes of Hs are projected to decrease on average by the end of this century. The 95th percentile of Hs is strongly positively correlated to the NAO. Projections of Hs extremes are location dependent and in fact, under the influence of positive NAO the 20-year return levels of Hs were found to be amplified in some regions. However, it is important to note that the projected decreases in the 95th percentile of Hs off the west coast of Ireland are not statistically significant in one of the RCP4.5 and one of the RCP8.5 simulations (me41, me83) which indicates that there is still uncertainty in the projections of higher percentiles.

Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw (AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during late winter (February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO (AMO|−), a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO (AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO’s modulation of the Aleutian low (AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|− displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe, but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|−, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+. The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|− on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|− weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter. acceptedVersion

International audience; A pioneering and replicable method based on a 66-year numerical weather and wave hindcast is developed to optimize a climate index based on the sea level pressure (SLP) that best explains winter wave height variability along the coast of western Europe, from Portugal to UK (36–52 ∘ N). The resulting so-called Western Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) is based on the sea level pressure gradient between the stations Valentia (Ireland) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands). The WEPA positive phase reflects an intensified and southward shifted SLP difference between the Icelandic low and the Azores high, driving severe storms that funnel high-energy waves toward western Europe southward of 52 ∘ N. WEPA outscores by 25–150% the other leading atmospheric modes in explaining winter-averaged significant wave height, and even by a largest amount the winter-averaged extreme wave heights. WEPA is also the only index capturing the 2013/2014 extreme winter that caused widespread coastal erosion and flooding in western Europe.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basic variability mode in the Northern Hemisphere, undergoes changes in its temporal and spatial characteristics, with significant implications on European climate. In this paper, different NAO flavors are distinguished for winter in simulations of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM, using Self-Organizing Maps, a topology preserving clustering algorithm. These flavors refer to various sub-forms of the NAO pattern, reflecting the range of positions occupied by its action centers, the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. After having defined the NAO flavors, composites of winter temperature and precipitation over Europe are created for each one of them. The results reveal significant differences between NAO flavors in terms of their effects on the European climate. Generally, the eastwardly shifted NAO patterns induce a stronger than average influence on European temperatures. In contrast, the effects of NAO flavors on European precipitation anomalies are less coherent, with various areas responding differently. These results confirm that not only the temporal, but also the spatial variability of NAO is important in regulating European climate. �� 2020 by the authors.

The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the number of dust events fourfold (135 dust days annually). The position of the Icelandic Low determined whether dust events occurred in the NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in the southern (S) part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The decade with the most frequent dust days in S Iceland was the 1960s, but the 2000s in NE Iceland. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility < 500 m) were observed in Iceland with the highest frequency of events during the 2000s in S Iceland. The Arctic dust events (NE Iceland) were typically warm, occurring during summer/autumn (May–September) and during mild southwesterly winds, while the subarctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold, occurring during winter/spring (March–May) and during strong northeasterly winds. About half of the dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vík and Stórhöfði. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and that dust is emitted year-round.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.

The Southeast (SE) U.S. has experienced several severe droughts over the past 30 years, with the most recent drought during 2006–2008 causing agricultural impacts of $1 billion. However, the mechanisms that lead to droughts over the region and their persistence have been poorly understood due to the region's humid coastal environment and its complex climate. In this study, we carry out a multiscale analysis of drought mechanisms for the SE U.S. over 1979–2008 using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to identify conditions associated with drought and contrast with those associated with pluvials. These conditions include land surface drought propagation, land-atmosphere feedbacks, regional moisture sources, persistent atmospheric patterns, and larger-scale oceanic conditions. Typical conditions for SE U.S. droughts (pluvials) are identified as follows: (1) weaker (stronger) southerly meridional fluxes and weaker (stronger) westerly zonal fluxes, (2) strong moisture flux divergence (convergence) by transient eddies, and (3) strong (weak) coupling between the land surface and atmosphere. The NARR demonstrates that historic SE droughts are mainly derived from a combination of a strong North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and Icelandic Low (IL) during summer and winter, respectively, which peak 1 month earlier than the onset of the drought. The land surface plays a moderate role in drought occurrence over the SE via recycling of precipitation, and the oceans show an asymmetric influence on droughts and pluvials depending on the season. This study suggests that the NASH and IL can be used as a predictor for SE droughts at 1 month lead despite the overall that it represents an atmospheric forcing.