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Background The question of whether influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the winter season is still open and some contradictory findings have been reported. This study investigated the possible decline in protection provided by the available influenza vaccines.Research design and methods An individual-level pooled analysis of six test-negative case-control studies conducted in Italy between the 2018/2019 and 2022/2023 seasons was performed. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate weekly change in the odds of testing positive for influenza 14 days after vaccination.Results Of 6490 patients included, 1633 tested positive for influenza. Each week that had elapsed since vaccination was associated with an increase in the odds of testing positive for any influenza (4.9%; 95% CI: 2.0–8.0%) and for A(H3N2) (6.5%; 95% CI: 2.9–10.3%). This decline in VE was, however, significant only in children and older adults. A similar increase in the odds of testing positive was seen when the dataset was restricted to vaccinees only. Conversely, VE waning was less evident for A(H1N1)pdm09 or B strains.Conclusions Significant waning of VE, especially against influenza A(H3N2), may be one of the factors associated with suboptimal end-of-season VE. Next-generation vaccines should provide more durable protection against A(H3N2).

Higher-dimensional models of peatland development are required to analyse the influence of spatial heterogeneity and complex feedback mechanisms on peatland behaviour. However, the current models exclude the mechanical process that leads to uncertainties in simulating the spatial variability in the water table position, vegetation composition, and peat physical properties. Here, we propose MPeat2D, a peatland development model in two dimensions, which considers mechanical, ecological, and hydrological processes together with the essential feedback from spatial interactions. MPeat2D employs poroelasticity theory that couples fluid flow and solid deformation to model the influence of peat volume changes on peatland ecology and hydrology. To validate the poroelasticity formulation, the comparisons between numerical and analytical solutions of Mandel's problems for two-dimensional test cases are conducted. The application of MPeat2D is illustrated by simulating peatland growth over 5000 years above a flat and impermeable substrate with free-draining boundaries at the edges, using constant and variable climate. In both climatic scenarios, MPeat2D produces lateral variability in the water table depth, which results in the variation in the vegetation composition. Furthermore, the drop in the water table at the margin increases the compaction effect, leading to a higher value of bulk density and a lower value of active porosity and hydraulic conductivity. These spatial variations obtained from MPeat2D are consistent with the field observations, suggesting plausible outputs from the proposed model. By comparing the results of MPeat2D to a one-dimensional model and a two-dimensional model without the mechanical process, we argue that mechanical–ecohydrological feedbacks are important for analysing spatial heterogeneity, shape, carbon accumulation, and resilience of peatlands.

Abstract Influenza-like illness (ILI) patients co-detected with respiratory pathogens exhibit poorer health outcomes than those with single infections. To address the paucity of knowledge concerning the incidence of concurrent respiratory pathogens, their relationships, and the clinical differences between patients detected with single and multiple pathogens, we performed an in-depth characterization of the oropharyngeal samples of primary care patients collected in Genoa (Northwest Italy), during winter seasons 2018/19–2019/20. The apriori algorithm was employed to evaluate the incidence of viral, bacterial, and viral-bacterial pairs during the study period. The grade of correlation between pathogens was investigated using the Phi coefficient. Factors associated with viral, bacterial or viral-bacterial co-detection were assessed using logistic regression. The most frequently identified pathogens included influenza A, rhinovirus, Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae. The highest correlations were found between bacterial-bacterial and viral-bacterial pairs, such as Haemophilus influenzae-Streptococcus pneumoniae, adenovirus-Haemophilus influenzae, adenovirus-Streptococcus pneumoniae, RSV-A-Bordetella pertussis, and influenza B Victoria-Bordetella parapertussis. Viruses were detected together at significantly lower rates. Notably, rhinovirus, influenza, and RSV exhibited significant negative correlations with each other. Co-detection was more prevalent in children aged

Abstract Background Seasonal influenza vaccination coverage in Italian older adults is insufficient and well below the minimum target of 75%. In Italy, most influenza vaccine doses are administered by general practitioners (GPs), whose number has been declining. In parallel, the number of patients per GP and GP workload increased dramatically, which theoretically may impair vaccination counselling. In this ecological study, we aimed to assess whether influenza vaccination coverage in older adults is associated with the density of GPs having high number of patients. Methods The study outcome was the influenza vaccination coverage rate in adults aged ≥ 65 years and registered in 20 Italian regions over the last 23 years. The independent variable of interest was the proportion of GPs with more than 1,500 adult patients, which is an imposed normative ceiling. This latter variable was considered as a proxy of GP overload. By adopting a panel regression approach, different specifications of fixed- and random-effects models were run to assess the association of interest, when adjusted for several social structural, economic and healthcare-related variables. Results Over the last two decades, most regions showed a negative association between influenza vaccination coverage rates and the density of GPs with a high number of patients. This latter negative association was confirmed (P

Summary: Background: Prior studies have reported lower effectiveness of XBB.1.5-adapted vaccines against hospitalization related to the Omicron JN.1 variant than the XBB variant. This study evaluated the effectiveness and durability of the BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine against JN.1-related hospitalization during the 2023–2024 season in Europe. Methods: A test-negative case–control study was carried out in adults (≥18 y) hospitalized between 2 October 2023 and 2 April 2024 with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) within the id.DRIVE partnership. This study included nine sites across Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Cases had a laboratory-confirmed JN.1 infection or a positive SARS-CoV-2 test with symptom onset during JN.1 predominance; controls had a negative SARS-CoV-2 test and symptom onset during JN.1 predominance. The primary objective was to estimate BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalization. One case was matched with up to four controls, according to symptom onset date and site. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for symptom onset date, age, sex, and number of chronic conditions. Findings: Among 308 test-positive cases and 1117 test-negative controls, BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted VE against hospitalization compared to no vaccination this season was 53.8% (95% CI 38.4–65.4) after a median of 63 days following vaccination. Protection was sustained through five months; VE was 52.2% (95% CI 41.3–61.1) 2 to

ABSTRACTInfectious diseases pose a significant burden on the general population, particularly older adults who are more susceptible to severe complications. Immunization plays a crucial role in preventing infections and securing a healthier aging, but actual vaccination rates among older adults and frail individuals (OAFs) remains far from recommended targets. This study aims to collect and share good practices implemented in several Italian local health districts during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to ease routine immunization for OAFs. A 28-items questionnaire has been developed to collect information on organization aspect of immunization services and local good practices implemented before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Twelve Public Health managers representative of 9 Italian Regions were further interviewed between January and March 2021. Despite literature suggests several effective interventions to increase vaccine demand, improve vaccine access, and enhance healthcare providers’ performance, our survey highlighted substantial heterogeneity in their implementation at local level. Seven good local practices have been identified and described: mass vaccination centers; vaccination mobile units; drive-through vaccination; co-administration; tailored pathways; cooperation among providers involved in vaccination; digitization. Our survey pointed out valuable strategies for enhancing routine immunization for OAFs. Providers should combine effective interventions adequate to their specific context and share good practices.

Abstract Introduction Many immunization programs in Europe recommend quadrivalent meningococcal vaccinations, which are often administered concomitantly with other vaccines. We compared the immune response of a tetanus toxoid conjugated quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine (MenACYW-TT, MenQuadfi®) with another quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV4-TT; Nimenrix®) when administered alone or concomitantly with Tdap-IPV and 9vHPV vaccines in adolescents. Methods In this phase IIIb trial, healthy adolescents (MenC-naïve or MenC-primed before 2 years of age) from Spain, Italy, Hungary, and Singapore were randomized in a 3:3:2 ratio to receive either MenACYW-TT or MCV4-TT alone, or MenACYW-TT concomitantly with 9vHPV and Tdap-IPV. The primary objective was to demonstrate the non-inferiority of the seroprotection rate (human serum bactericidal assay [hSBA] titer ≥ 1:8) to serogroups A, C, W, and Y 30 days post-vaccination with a single dose of MenACYW-TT or MCV4-TT. Secondary objectives included describing hSBA titers for the four serogroups before and 1 month following vaccination and according to MenC priming status. Results A total of 463 participants were enrolled (MenACYW-TT, n = 173; MCV4-TT, n = 173; MenACYW-TT/9vHPV/Tdap-IPV n = 117). Non-inferiority based on seroprotection was demonstrated for MenACYW-TT versus MCV4-TT for all serogroups. Immune responses were comparable whether MenACYW-TT was administered alone or concomitantly with Tdap-IPV and 9vHPV. Post-vaccination hSBA GMTs were higher in MenACYW-TT vs. MCV4-TT for serogroups C, Y, and W and comparable for serogroup A. The percentages of participants with an hSBA vaccine seroresponse were higher in MenACYW-TT vs. MCV4-TT for all serogroups. For serogroup C, higher GMTs were observed in both MenC-naïve or -primed participants vaccinated with MenACYW-TT vs. MCV4-TT. Seroprotection and seroresponse were higher in MenC-naïve participants vaccinated with MenACYW-TT vs. MCV4-TT and comparable in MenC-primed. The safety profiles were comparable between groups and no new safety concerns were identified. Conclusions These data support the concomitant administration of MenACYW-TT with 9vHPV and Tdap-IPV vaccines in adolescents. Trial Registrations Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04490018; EudraCT: 2020-001665-37; WHO: U1111-1249-2973.

ABSTRACT: Objectives: In order to support policymakers in allocating resources, we aimed to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs) available for Italian adults in the 2023/2024 season. Methods: A hospital-based test-negative case-control study was conducted in Genoa between mid-October 2023 and mid-April 2024. Adult (≥18 years) inpatients with prescription of a polymerase chain reaction test for influenza were eligible. Results: Of 1,664 adults analyzed, most (82%) of which were ≥65 years, 114 (6.9%) tested positive for influenza A. Most (92%) cases were caused by subclades 6B.1A.5a.2a and 6B.1A.5a.2a.1 of the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype. In older adults aged ≥65 years vaccination was effective at 51% (95% CI: 8%, 74%) against any influenza A and 49% (95% CI: 2%, 73%) against A(H1N1)pdm09. Compared with non-vaccinated older adults, VE point estimates for the adjuvanted and, especially, high-dose IIVs were higher than those for the standard-dose non-adjuvanted IIV. Conclusion: The 2023/2024 seasonal influenza vaccination proved moderately effective in preventing hospitalization for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Being more appropriate for older adults, local policymakers and vaccinating physicians should maximize adoption of the enhanced IIVs.

Background: There are algorithms to predict the risk of SARS-CoV-2-related complications. Given the spread of anti-COVID vaccination, which sensibly modified the burden of risk of the infection, these tools need to be re-calibrated. Therefore, we updated our vulnerability index, namely, the Health Search (HS)-CoVulnerabiltyIndex (VI)d (HS-CoVId), to predict the risk of SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization/death in the primary care setting. Methods: We formed a cohort of individuals aged ≥15 years and diagnosed with COVID-19 between 1 January and 31 December 2021 in the HSD. The date of COVID-19 diagnosis was the study index date. These patients were eligible if they had received an anti-COVID vaccine at least 15 days before the index date. Patients were followed up from the index date until one of the following events, whichever came first: COVID-19-related hospitalization/death (event date), end of registration with their GPs, and end of the study period (31 December 2022). To calculate the incidence rate of COVID-19-related hospitalization/death, a patient-specific score was derived through linear combination of the coefficients stemming from a multivariate Cox regression model. Its prediction performance was evaluated by obtaining explained variation, discrimination, and calibration measures. Results: We identified 2192 patients who had received an anti-COVID vaccine from 1 January to 31 December 2021. With this cohort, we re-calibrated the HS-CoVId by calculating optimism-corrected pseudo-R2, AUC, and calibration slope. The final model reported a good predictive performance by explaining 58% (95% CI: 48–71%) of variation in the occurrence of hospitalizations/deaths, the AUC was 83 (95% CI: 77–93%), and the calibration slope did not reject the equivalence hypothesis (p-value = 0.904). Conclusions: Two versions of HS-CoVId need to be differentially adopted to assess the risk of COVID-19-related complications among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects. Therefore, this functionality should be operationalized in related patient- and population-based informatic tools intended for general practitioners.

Context: Existing studies have explored the association between workplace training and wages suggesting that training participation may have a positive association with wages. However, we still know very little about whether this association varies between men and women. Through its potential positive association with wages, training may balance wage differences between men and women. In addition, the gender wage gap varies across the wage distribution. Differences in the association between training participation and wages for men and women across the earnings spectrum may offer an explanation as to why the discrepancy in female/male earnings is larger at some point of the wage distribution compared to others. Approach: Using data from the Programme for International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) and unconditional quantile regression, this paper examines whether the association between workplace training and wages differs between men and women at different points of the wage distribution across 14 European countries. To partly control for endogeneity in training participation, detailed measures of cognitive skills have been included in the models. Findings: Findings show gender differences in the association between training and wages across the wage distribution. In most countries, results indicate larger training coefficients for women than men at the lower end of the wage spectrum whereas they are larger for men at the top. This pattern holds across most countries with the only exception of Liberal ones, where women benefit less than men across the entire wage spectrum. Conclusions: The findings of this work reveal that distributional variations in returns to workplace training follow a similar pattern across industrialized countries, despite their different institutional settings. Moreover, differences in training coefficients of men and women at different parts of the wage distribution suggest that training could reduce gender wage differences among low earners and potentially widen the gap in wages among individuals at the top of the wage distribution.

The Internet is an important gateway for accessing health-related information, and data generated through web queries have been increasingly used as a complementary source for monitoring and forecasting of infectious diseases and they may partially address the issue of underreporting. In this study, we assessed whether tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)-related Internet search volume may be useful as a complementary tool for TBE surveillance in Italy. Monthly Google Trends (GT) data for TBE-related information were extracted for the period between January 2017 and September 2022, corresponding to the available time series of TBE notifications in Italy. Time series modeling was performed by applying seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models with or without GT data. The search terms relative to tick bites reflected best the observed temporal distribution of TBE cases, showing a correlation coefficient of 0.81 (95 % CI: 0.71–0.88). Particularly, both the reported number of TBE cases and GT searches occurred mainly during the summer. The peak of disease notifications coincided with that of Google searches in 4 of 6 years. Once calibrated, SARIMA models with or without GT data were applied to a validation set. Retrospective forecast made by the model with GT data was associated with a lower prediction error and accurately predicted the peak timing. By contrast, the traditional SARIMA model underestimated the actual number of TBE notifications by 65 %. Timeliness, easy availability, low cost and transparency make monitoring of the TBE-related Internet search queries a promising addition to the traditional methods of TBE surveillance in Italy.

Abstract Current methods for recording large-scale neuronal activity from behaving mice at single-cell resolution require either fixing the mouse head under a microscope or attachment of a recording device to the animal’s skull. Both of these options significantly affect the animal behavior and hence also the recorded brain activity patterns. Here, we introduce a different method to acquire snapshots of single-cell cortical activity maps from freely-moving mice using a calcium sensor called CaMPARI. CaMPARI has a unique property of irreversibly changing its color from green to red inside active neurons when illuminated with 400 nm light. We capitalize on this property to demonstrate cortex-wide activity recording without any head fixation, tethering, or attachment of a miniaturized device to the mouse’s head. Multiple cortical regions were recorded while the mouse was performing a battery of behavioral and cognitive tests. We identified task-dependent activity patterns across motor and somatosensory cortices, with significant differences across sub-regions of the motor cortex and correlations across several activity patterns and task parameters. This CaMPARI-based recording method expands the capabilities of recording neuronal activity from freely-moving and behaving mice under minimally-restrictive experimental conditions and provides large-scale volumetric data that are currently not accessible otherwise.

Abstract Background Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP) is an opportunistic, life-threatening disease commonly affecting immunocompromised patients. The distribution of predisposing diseases or conditions in critically ill patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) and subjected to diagnostic work-up for PJP has seldom been explored. Materials and methods The primary objective of the study was to describe the characteristics of ICU patients subjected to diagnostic workup for PJP. The secondary objectives were: (i) to assess demographic and clinical variables associated with PJP; (ii) to assess the performance of Pneumocystis PCR on respiratory specimens and serum BDG for the diagnosis of PJP; (iii) to describe 30-day and 90-day mortality in the study population. Results Overall, 600 patients were included in the study, of whom 115 had presumptive/proven PJP (19.2%). Only 8.8% of ICU patients subjected to diagnostic workup for PJP had HIV infection, whereas hematological malignancy, solid tumor, inflammatory diseases, and solid organ transplants were present in 23.2%, 16.2%, 15.5%, and 10.0% of tested patients, respectively. In multivariable analysis, AIDS (odds ratio [OR] 3.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13–9.64, p = 0.029), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (OR 3.71; 95% CI 1.23–11.18, p = 0.020), vasculitis (OR 5.95; 95% CI 1.07–33.22, p = 0.042), metastatic solid tumor (OR 4.31; 95% CI 1.76–10.53, p = 0.001), and bilateral ground glass on CT scan (OR 2.19; 95% CI 1.01–4.78, p = 0.048) were associated with PJP, whereas an inverse association was observed for increasing lymphocyte cell count (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.42–1.00, p = 0.049). For the diagnosis of PJP, higher positive predictive value (PPV) was observed when both respiratory Pneumocystis PCR and serum BDG were positive compared to individual assay positivity (72% for the combination vs. 63% for PCR and 39% for BDG). Cumulative 30-day mortality and 90-day mortality in patients with presumptive/proven PJP were 52% and 67%, respectively. Conclusion PJP in critically ill patients admitted to ICU is nowadays most encountered in non-HIV patients. Serum BDG when used in combination with respiratory Pneumocystis PCR could help improve the certainty of PJP diagnosis.

ABSTRACT: Objectives: Although respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infections (ARIs), it is unclear which of the case definitions that prompt swab collection predicts RSV best. We aimed to profile RSV-positive adults and to identify possible RSV case definitions. Methods: This individual-based pooled analysis was based on influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance conducted among Italian outpatient adults. All samples were tested for influenza, RSV and other respiratory viruses. Results: RSV was detected in 5.2% of the 1240 ILI adults tested. The prevalence of fever/feverishness was significantly lower (83.3%) in individuals positive for RSV and those negative for both viruses (79.4%) than in influenza-positive subjects (96.2%). Conversely, 98.3% of RSV-positive adults reported cough. Compared with subjects who tested negative, the adjusted relative risk ratio of cough in RSV-positive subjects was much higher than in influenza-positive subjects (6.89 vs 2.79). Using ARI with cough as the RSV case definition increased specificity. Conclusion: As fever/feverishness is more common among influenza than RSV cases, ILI-based surveillance may underestimate RSV incidence in adult outpatients. While broad ARI definitions are useful for routine RSV surveillance, their low specificity may hamper vaccine effectiveness studies. The use of further ARI qualifiers like cough increases specificity.

Objectives: Compared with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), rapid antigen detection tests (RADTs) for SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics are faster, less expensive, but also less accurate. Performance of RADTs is context-specific and depends on disease prevalence. In this real-world study, we assessed impact of RADTs in an inpatient setting through the entire COVID-19 emergency phase. Methods: In this matched retrospective study, data on RT-PCR and RADT laboratory diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 made between February 2020 and May 2023 in a large hospital were analyzed. To be included in the study, samples used for both RT-PCR and RADT had to be collected on the same day. Results: Of 278,867 RT-PCR tests available, 13,321 same-day RADTs could be matched to RT-PCR. Over the entire period, RADT sensitivity and specificity were 76.4% and 99.4%, respectively. With the observed positivity rate of 9.4%, positive and negative predictive values were 92.7% and 97.6%, respectively. Compared with the periods dominated by the Alpha and Delta variants of concern, RADT accuracy was slightly lower during the Omicron phase. Conclusion: This real-world experience demonstrates that despite suboptimal sensitivity and some variation by predominant variants of concern and positivity prevalence, the use of RADTs is useful in hospital settings. Public health implications were discussed.

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.