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Historically low levels of seasonal influenza circulation were reported during the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic and were mainly attributed to implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions. In tropical regions, influenza’s seasonality differs largely, and data on this topic are scarce. We analyzed data from Senegal’s sentinel syndromic surveillance network before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to assess changes in influenza circulation. We found that influenza shows year-round circulation in Senegal and has 2 distinct epidemic peaks: during January–March and during the rainy season in August–October. During 2021–2022, the expected January–March influenza peak completely disappeared, corresponding to periods of active SARS-CoV-2 circulation. We noted an unexpected influenza epidemic peak during May–July 2022. The observed reciprocal circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza suggests that factors such as viral interference might be at play and should be further investigated in tropical settings.

Abstract Background Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. However, a lack of epidemiological data remains for this pathology, and the performances of the influenza-like illness (ILI) case definitions used for sentinel surveillance have never been evaluated in Senegal. This study aimed to i) assess the performance of three different ILI case definitions, adopted by the WHO, USA-CDC (CDC) and European-CDC (ECDC) and ii) identify clinical factors associated with a positive diagnosis for Influenza in order to develop an algorithm fitted for the Senegalese context. Methods All 657 patients with a febrile pathological episode (FPE) between January 2013 and December 2016 were followed in a cohort study in two rural villages in Senegal, accounting for 1653 FPE observations with nasopharyngeal sampling and influenza virus screening by rRT-PCR. For each FPE, general characteristics and clinical signs presented by patients were collected. Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) for the three ILI case definitions were assessed using PCR result as the reference test. Associations between clinical signs and influenza infection were analyzed using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. Sore throat, arthralgia or myalgia were missing for children under 5 years. Results WHO, CDC and ECDC case definitions had similar sensitivity (81.0%; 95%CI: 77.0–85.0) and NPV (91.0%; 95%CI: 89.0–93.1) while the WHO and CDC ILI case definitions had the highest specificity (52.0%; 95%CI: 49.1–54.5) and PPV (32.0%; 95%CI: 30.0–35.0). These performances varied by age groups. In children

Delay Differential Equations (DDE's) have received considerable attention in recent years. While most of these articles focused on the effects of the time delays on the stability of the equilibrium points and on the bifurcation that they may raised, very few papers address the key roles that system parameters play on if and how the discrete delays induce stability changes of the equilibria and produce bifurcations near such equilibria. In this article we focus on that question in a general setting, that is, if you have a system of DDE's with one or multiple discrete time delays, what are the results of changing the system parameters values on the effects of the discrete time delays on the dynamic of the system. We present general results for one equation with one and two delays and study a specific example of one equation with one delay. We then establish the procedure for n equations with multiple delays and do a specific example for two equations with two delays. We compute the steady states and analyze their stability as both chosen bifurcation parameters, the discrete time delay ...