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Early detection and eradication of invasive plants are more cost-effective than managing well-established invasive plant populations and their impacts. However, there is high uncertainty around which taxa are likely to become invasive in a given area. Horizon scanning, which pairs rapid risk assessment with consensus building among experts, can help identify invasion threats. We performed a horizon scan of potential invasive plant threats to Florida, USA—a state with a high influx of introduced species, conditions that are favorable for plant establishment, and a history of negative impacts from invasive plants. We began with a list of 2128 non-native plant species and subspecies that are crop pests or invasive somewhere in the world and used publicly available data to prioritize 100 taxa for rapid risk assessment. We derived overall invasion risk scores by evaluating the likelihood and certainty of each of the 100 taxa arriving, establishing, and having an impact in Florida. Through the rapid risk assessments and a consensus-building discussion, we identified six plant taxa with high overall risk scores ranging from 75 to 100 out of a possible 125. The six taxa are globally distributed, easily transported to new areas, found in regions with climates similar to Florida’s, and can impact native plant communities, human health, or agriculture. We recommend more thorough risk assessments for each of these six species and, if appropriate, policy and management actions to limit invasive plant introduction and establishment in Florida.

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, climate change, small population sizes, and long gaps between surveys may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size was negatively associated with extinction, while elevation and time between observations interacted such that low elevation populations were most vulnerable to extinction, but only over larger time spans. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 31%-56% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high climate vulnerability.

Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics underlying the introduction and spread of nonindigenous aquatic species (NAS) can provide important insights into the historical drivers of biological invasions and aid in forecasting future patterns of nonindigenous species arrival and spread. Increasingly, public databases of species observation records are being used to quantify changes in NAS distributions across space and time, and are becoming an important resource for researchers, managers, and policy-makers. Here we use publicly available data to describe trends in NAS introduction and spread across the conterminous United States over more than two centuries of observation records. Available data on first records of NAS reveal significant shifts in dominance of particular introduction patterns over time, both in terms of recipient regions and likely sources. These spatiotemporal trends at the continental scale may be subject to biases associated with regional variation in sampling effort, reporting, and data curation. We therefore also examined two additional metrics, the number of individual records and the spatial coverage of those records, which are likely to be more closely associated with sampling effort. Our results suggest that broad-scale patterns may mask considerable variation across regions, time periods, and even entities contributing to NAS sampling. In some cases, observed temporal shifts in species discovery may be influenced by dramatic fluctuations in the number and spatial extent of individual observations, reflecting the possibility that shifts in sampling effort may obscure underlying rates of NAS introduction.

There is growing evidence that genetic and ecological factors interact in determining population persistence. The demographic effects of inbreeding depression can largely depend on the ecological milieu. We used demographic data of the perennial herb Succisa pratensis from six populations in grazed and ungrazed sites with different soil moisture. We built an individual-based model assessing the demographic consequences of inbreeding depression in populations with different management and habitat. Today this plant has to cope with severe landscape fragmentation, deteriorating habitat conditions in terms of decreasing grazing intensity, and the effects of inbreeding depression. For each population we performed simulations testing two inbreeding depression hypotheses (partial dominance and overdominance) and three epistatic functions among loci. The results indicated stronger inbreeding depression effects for populations in unfavourable sites without grazing or in xeric habitats compared to populations in favourable mesic sites with grazing. Overall, we found stronger effects with overdominance, a result that emphasizes the importance of understanding the genetic mechanisms of inbreeding depression. Hence, management practices can interact with the genetic consequences of inbreeding depression in population dynamics, which may have important implications for plant population ecology and evolutionary dynamics of inbreeding depression, [GER] Es gibt zunehmend Hinweise darauf, dass genetische und okologische Faktoren bei der Bestimmung der Persistenz von Populationen zusammenwirken. Die demographischen Effekte von Inzuchtdepressionen hangen in großem Ausmaß von der okologischen Umwelt ab. Wir nutzten die demographischen Daten des perennierenden Krautes Succisa pratensis aus sechs Populationen, die entweder beweidet oder unbeweidet waren und unterschiedliche Bodenfeuchten zeigten. Wir erstellten ein individuenbasiertes Modell um die demographischen Konsequenzen der Inzuchtdepression in verschiedenen Populationen bei verschiedenen Bewirtschaftungen und Habitaten abzuschatzen. Heute muss diese Pflanze mit ernster Landschaftsfragmentierung, sich verschlechternden Habitatbedingungen in Form von abnehmender Beweidungsintensitat und den Auswirkungen der Inzuchtdepression zurechtkommen. Fur jede Population fuhrten wir Simulationen durch, um zwei Inzuchtdepressions-Hypothesen (teilweise und Uberdominanz) und drei epistatische Funktionen uber die Loci zu testen. Die Ergebnisse wiesen auf starkere Auswirkungen der Inzuchtdepression bei Populationen in ungunstigen Habitaten ohne Beweidung oder in xerischen Habitaten im Vergleich zu Populationen in den bevorzugten mesischen Habitaten mit Beweidung hin. Insgesamt fanden wir starkere Effekte bei Uberdominanz, ein Ergebnis, dass die Wichtigkeit betont, die genetischen Mechanismen der Inzuchtdepression zu verstehen. Die Bewirtschaftungsweise kann also mit den genetischen Konsequenzen der Inzuchtdepression in der Populationsdynamik interagieren. Dies kann wichtige Implikationen fur die Pflanzenpopu- lationsokologie und die evolutionare Dynamik der Inzuchtdepression haben