Louiza S. Velentzis, Michael Caruana, Kate T. Simms, Karen Canfell, Ian Hammond, Yoon-Jung Kang, Tracey Bessell, Xiang-Ming Xu, Jie-Bin Lew, Megan Smith, Marion Saville, and Michaela T. Hall
Background Australia’s National Cervical Screening Program currently recommends cytological screening every 2 years for women aged 18–69 years. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was implemented in 2007 with high population coverage, and falls in high-grade lesions in young women have been reported extensively. This decline prompted a major review of the National Cervical Screening Program and new clinical management guidelines, for which we undertook this analysis. Methods We did eff ectiveness modelling and an economic assessment of potential new screening strategies, using a model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history, and cervical screening. First, we evaluated 132 screening strategies, including those based on cytology and primary HPV testing. Second, after a recommendation was made to adopt primary HPV screening with partial genotyping and direct referral to colposcopy of women positive for HPV16/18, we evaluated the fi nal eff ect of HPV screening after incorporating new clinical guidelines for women positive for HPV. Both evaluations considered both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts. Findings Strategies entailing HPV testing every 5 years and either partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or cytological co-testing were the most effective. One of the most effective and cost-effective strategies comprised primary HPV screening with referral of women positive for oncogenic HPV16/18 direct to colposcopy, with refl excytological triage for women with other oncogenic types and direct referral for those in this group with high-grade cytological findings. After incorporating detailed clinical guidelines recommendations, this strategy is predicted to reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality by 31% and 36%, respectively, in unvaccinated cohorts, and by 24% and 29%, respectively, in cohorts offered vaccination. Furthermore, this strategy is predicted to reduce costs by up to 19% for unvaccinated cohorts and 26% for cohorts offered vaccination, compared with the current programme. Interpretation Primary HPV screening every 5 years with partial genotyping is predicted to be substantially more effective and potentially cost-saving compared with the current cytology-based screening programme undertaken every 2 years. These findings underpin the decision to transition to primary HPV screening with partial genotyping in the Australian National Cervical Screening Program, which will occur in May, 2017. The fi rst component of this evaluation was funded by the Medical Services Advisory Committee Australia (MSAC application 1122). The Department of Health (Australia) funded Cancer Council Australia to develop the renewed clinical management guidelines for prevention of cervical cancer; Cancer Council NSW (J-BL, KTS, MAS, MH, Y-JK, XMX, MC, LSV, and KC) was subcontracted to perform some of this work as part of the technical team, and some modelling work undertaken for this contract is included in the submitted paper. Development of the model used in the evaluation was funded by a range of further sources including the NHMRC (project grants APP440200 and APP1007518), the Medical Services Advisory Committee, Department of Health Australia, Cancer Council Australia and Cancer Council NSW, the New Zealand Ministry of Health, and the UK Health Technologies Assessment (HTA). KC receives salary support from NHMRC Australia (Career Development Fellowship APP1082989). We thank the Renewal Steering Committee and the Cervical Cancer Screening Guidelines Working Party (of which IH is Chair) for their guidance in development of the clinical management pathways incorporated into the model. We also thank Robert Walker for assistance in the development of the dynamic HPV model and running strategies in the dynamic HPV model