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Upcoming large-scale structure surveys will measure the matter power spectrum to approximately percent level accuracy with the aim of searching for evidence for new physics beyond the standard model of cosmology. In order to avoid biasing our conclusions, the theoretical predictions need to be at least as accurate as the measurements for a given choice of cosmological parameters. However, recent theoretical work has shown that complex physical processes associated with galaxy formation (particularly energetic feedback processes associated with stars and especially supermassive black holes) can alter the predictions by many times larger than the required accuracy. Here we present $\texttt{SP(k)}$, a model for the effects of baryon physics on the non-linear matter power spectrum based on a new large suite of hydrodynamical simulations. Specifically, the ANTILLES suite consists of 400 simulations spanning a very wide range of the "feedback landscape" and show that the effects of baryons on the matter power spectrum can be understood at approaching the percent level in terms of the mean baryon fraction of haloes, at scales of up to $k \lesssim 10 \, h \, $Mpc$^{-1}$ and redshifts up to $z=3$. For the range of scales and redshifts that will be probed by forthcoming cosmic shear measurements, most of the effects are driven by galaxy group-mass haloes ($M \sim 10^{13-14}$ M$_\odot$). We present a simple Python implementation of our model, available at $\href{https://github.com/jemme07/pyspk}{\mathrm{https{:}//github.com/jemme07/pyspk}}$, which can be used to incorporate baryon effects in standard gravity-only predictions, allowing for marginalisation over baryon physics within cosmological pipelines., Comment: Refereed version accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS). 16 pages, 11 figures

Using the ARTEMIS set of 45 high-resolution cosmological simulations, we investigate a range of merger-induced dynamical transformations of Milky Way-like galaxies. We first identify populations of accreted stars on highly radial orbits, similar to the 'Gaia Sausage' in the Milky Way. We show that $\approx1/3$ of the ARTEMIS galaxies contain a similar feature, and confirm that they usually comprise stellar debris from the most massive accreted satellite. Selecting 15 galaxies with discs at the present-day, we study their changes around the times of the GS-like mergers. Dark matter haloes of many of these exhibit global changes in shape and orientation, with almost half becoming significantly more spherical when the mergers occur. Focusing on the galaxies themselves, we find that 4/15 have stellar discs which experience large changes in the orientation of their angular momentum (AM) axes, at rates of up to $\sim60$ degrees Gyr$^{-1}$. By calculating the orbital angular momentum axes of the satellites before they are accreted, we show that there is a tendency for the disc's AM to become more aligned with this axis after the merger. We also investigate the origin of in situ retrograde stars, analogous to the 'Splash' in the Milky Way. Tracing them back to earlier snapshots, we demonstrate that they were often disrupted onto their extreme orbits by multiple early mergers. We also find that the total mass of these stars outside the central regions positively correlates with the total accreted stellar mass., 20 pages, 16 figures, published in MNRAS

We present measurements of the intrinsic alignments (IAs) of the star-forming gas of galaxies in the EAGLE simulations. Radio continuum imaging of this gas enables cosmic shear measurements complementary to optical surveys. We measure the orientation of star-forming gas with respect to the direction to, and orientation of, neighbouring galaxies. Star-forming gas exhibits a preferentially radial orientation-direction alignment that is a decreasing function of galaxy pair separation, but remains significant to $\gtrsim 1$ Mpc at $z=0$. The alignment is qualitatively similar to that exhibited by the stars, but is weaker at fixed separation. Pairs of galaxies hosted by more massive subhaloes exhibit stronger alignment at fixed separation, but the strong alignment of close pairs is dominated by ${\sim}L^\star$ galaxies and their satellites. At fixed comoving separation, the radial alignment is stronger at higher redshift. The orientation-orientation alignment is consistent with random at all separations, despite subhaloes exhibiting preferential parallel minor axis alignment. The weaker IA of star-forming gas than for stars stems from the former's tendency to be less well aligned with the dark matter structure of galaxies than the latter, and implies that the systematic uncertainty due to IA may be less severe in radio continuum weak lensing surveys than in optical counterparts. Alignment models equating the orientation of star-forming gas discs to that of stellar discs or the DM structure of host subhaloes will therefore overestimate the impact of IAs on radio continuum cosmic shear measurements., 18 pages, 13 figures. Paper submitted to MNRAS

We present a novel statistic to extract cosmological information in weak lensing data: the lensing minima. We also investigate the effect of baryons on the cosmological constraints from peak and minimum counts. Using the \texttt{MassiveNuS} simulations, we find that lensing minima are sensitive to non-Gaussian cosmological information and are complementary to the lensing power spectrum and peak counts. For an LSST-like survey, we obtain $95\%$ credible intervals from a combination of lensing minima and peaks that are significantly stronger than from the power spectrum alone, by $44\%$, $11\%$, and $63\%$ for the neutrino mass sum $\sum m_\nu$, matter density $\Omega_m$, and amplitude of fluctuation $A_s$, respectively. We explore the effect of baryonic processes on lensing minima and peaks using the hydrodynamical simulations \texttt{BAHAMAS} and \texttt{Osato15}. We find that ignoring baryonic effects would lead to strong ($\approx 4 \sigma$) biases in inferences from peak counts, but negligible ($\approx 0.5 \sigma$) for minimum counts, suggesting lensing minima are a potentially more robust tool against baryonic effects. Finally, we demonstrate that the biases can in principle be mitigated without significantly degrading cosmological constraints when we model and marginalize the baryonic effects., Comment: 12 pages and 11 figures

Recent analyses of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the Lyman-alpha forest indicate a mild preference for a deviation from a power law primordial matter power spectrum (a so-called negative `running'). We use an extension to the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations to explore the effects that a running scalar spectral index has on large-scale structure (LSS), using Planck CMB constraints to initialize the simulations. We focus on 5 key statistics: i) the non-linear matter power spectrum ii) the halo mass function; iii) the halo two-point auto correlation function; iv) total mass halo density profiles; and v) the halo concentration-mass relation. In terms of the matter power spectrum, we find that a running scalar spectral index affects all k-scales examined in this study, with a negative (positive) running leading to an amplification (suppression) of power. These effects should be easily detectable with upcoming surveys such as LSST and Euclid. In the mass range sampled, a positive running leads to an increase in the mass of galaxy groups and clusters, with the favoured negative running leading to a decrease in mass of lower-mass (M ~ 10^13 M_solar) halos. Changes in the mass are generally confined to 5-10% which, while not insignificant, cannot by itself reconcile the claimed tension between the primary CMB and cluster number counts. We find that running does not significantly affect the shapes of density profiles of matched halos, changing only their amplitude. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed effects on LSS due to a running scalar spectral index are separable from those of baryonic effects to typically a few percent precision., Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures, to match MNRAS accepted version

We study the impact of baryonic processes and massive neutrinos on weak lensing peak statistics that can be used to constrain cosmological parameters. We use the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological simulations, which self-consistently include baryonic processes and the effect of massive neutrino free-streaming on the evolution of structure formation. We construct synthetic weak lensing catalogues by ray tracing through light-cones, and use the aperture mass statistic for the analysis. The peaks detected on the maps reflect the cumulative signal from massive bound objects and general large-scale structure. We present the first study of weak lensing peaks in simulations that include both baryonic physics and massive neutrinos (summed neutrino mass Mν = 0.06, 0.12, 0.24, and 0.48 eV assuming normal hierarchy), so that the uncertainty due to physics beyond the gravity of dark matter can be factored into constraints on cosmological models. Assuming a fiducial model of baryonic physics, we also investigate the correlation between peaks and massive haloes, over a range of summed neutrino mass values. As higher neutrino mass tends to suppress the formation of massive structures in the Universe, the halo mass function and lensing peak counts are therefore modified as a function of Mν. Over most of the S/N range, the impact of fiducial baryonic physics is greater (less) than neutrinos for 0.06 and 0.12 (0.24 and 0.48) eV models. Both baryonic physics and massive neutrinos should be accounted for when deriving cosmological parameters from weak lensing observations.

Relativistic jets from AGN have a wide range of impacts on galaxy groups and clusters and are key for understanding their formation and physical properties. However, this non-gravitational process is not well understood. Galaxy groups with shallow gravitational potentials are ideal laboratories to study and constrain the AGN feedback model. We studied hot gas in ~66,000 SDSS LRG halos with an average halo mass of 3 x 10^13 Msun using the Planck tSZ map. We have detected their average tSZ radial profile at ~17 sigma and compared it with the cosmo-OWLS cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with different AGN feedback models. The best agreement has been obtained for the AGN 8.0 model in the simulations. We have also compared our measured tSZ profile with the prediction from the universal pressure profile assuming the self-similar relation and found them consistent if the model accounts for the clustering of neighboring haloes via a two-halo term., Comment: To appear in the Proceedings of the International Conference entitled "mm Universe @ NIKA2", Rome (Italy), June 2021, EPJ Web of conferences

Galaxy groups are more than an intermediate scale between clusters and halos hosting individual galaxies, they are crucial laboratories capable of testing a range of astrophysics from how galaxies form and evolve to large scale structure (LSS) statistics for cosmology. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of groups on various scales offer an unparalleled testing ground for astrophysical theories. Widely used cosmological simulations with ~(100 Mpc)^3 volumes contain statistical samples of groups that provide important tests of galaxy evolution influenced by environmental processes. Larger volumes capable of reproducing LSS while following the redistribution of baryons by cooling and feedback are essential tools necessary to constrain cosmological parameters. Higher resolution simulations can currently model satellite interactions, the processing of cool (T~10^4 K) multi-phase gas, and non-thermal physics including turbulence, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray transport. We review simulation results regarding the gas and stellar contents of groups, cooling flows and the relation to the central galaxy, the formation and processing of multi-phase gas, satellite interactions with the intragroup medium, and the impact of groups for cosmological parameter estimation. Cosmological simulations provide evolutionarily consistent predictions of these observationally difficult-to-define objects, and have untapped potential to accurately model their gaseous, stellar, and dark matter distributions., Comment: 61 pages, 18 figures, and 2 tables. This review article is part of the special issue "The Physical Properties of the Groups of Galaxies", edited by L. Lovisari and S. Ettori. Published in MDPI - Universe: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/universe/special_issues/PPGG

We present measurements of the morphology of star-forming gas in galaxies from the EAGLE simulations, and its alignment relative to stars and dark matter (DM). Imaging of such gas in the radio continuum enables weak lensing experiments that complement traditional optical approaches. Star-forming gas is typically more flattened than its associated stars and DM, particularly for present-day subhaloes of total mass $\sim$$10^{ 12-12.5} \mathrm{M_{ \odot}}$, which preferentially host star-forming galaxies with rotationally-supported stellar discs. Such systems have oblate, spheroidal star-forming gas distributions, but in both less- and more-massive subhaloes the distributions tend to be prolate, and its morphology correlates positively and significantly with that of its host galaxy's stars, both in terms of sphericity and triaxiality. The minor axis of star-forming gas most commonly aligns with the minor axis of its host subhalo's DM, but often aligns more closely with one of the other two principal axes of the DM distribution in prolate subhaloes. Star-forming gas aligns with DM less strongly than is the case for stars, but its morphological minor axis aligns closely with its kinematic axis, affording a route to observational identification of the unsheared morphological axis. The projected ellipticities of star-forming gas in EAGLE are consistent with shapes inferred from high-fidelity radio continuum images, and they exhibit greater shape noise than is the case for images of the stars, owing to the greater characteristic flattening of star-forming gas with respect to stars., Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures. Published in MNRAS

In the context of forthcoming galaxy surveys, to ensure unbiased constraints on cosmology and gravity when using non-linear structure information, percent-level accuracy is required when modelling the power spectrum. This calls for frameworks that can accurately capture the relevant physical effects, while allowing for deviations from $\Lambda$CDM. Massive neutrino and baryonic physics are two of the most relevant such effects. We present an integration of the halo model reaction frameworks for massive neutrinos and beyond-$\Lambda$CDM cosmologies. The integrated halo model reaction, combined with a pseudo power spectrum modelled by HMCode2020 is then compared against $N$-body simulations that include both massive neutrinos and an $f(R)$ modification to gravity. We find that the framework is 4% accurate down to at least $k\approx 3 \, h/{\rm Mpc}$ for a modification to gravity of $|f_{\rm R0}|\leq 10^{-5}$ and for the total neutrino mass $M_\nu \equiv \sum m_\nu \leq 0.15$ eV. We also find that the framework is 4% consistent with EuclidEmulator2 as well as the Bacco emulator for \B{most of the considered} $\nu w$CDM cosmologies down to at least $k \approx 3 \, h$/Mpc. Finally, we compare against hydrodynamical simulations employing HMCode2020's baryonic feedback modelling on top of the halo model reaction. For $\nu \Lambda$CDM cosmologies we find 2% accuracy for $M_\nu \leq 0.48$eV down to at least $k\approx 5h$/Mpc. Similar accuracy is found when comparing to $\nu w$CDM hydrodynamical simulations with $M_\nu = 0.06$eV. This offers the first non-linear, theoretically general means of accurately including massive neutrinos for beyond-$\Lambda$CDM cosmologies, and further suggests that baryonic, massive neutrino and dark energy physics can be reliably modelled independently., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures. MNRAS accepted version. Download ReACT: https://github.com/nebblu/ReACT/tree/react_with_neutrinos

We use photometric redshifts and statistical background subtraction to measure stellar mass functions in galaxy group-mass ($4.5-8\times10^{13}~\mathrm{M}_\odot$) haloes at $11$., Comment: Accepted July 6, 2021, MNRAS

As progenitors of the most massive objects, protoclusters are key to tracing the evolution and star-formation history of the Universe, and are responsible for ${\gtrsim}\,20$ per cent of the cosmic star formation at $z\,{>}\,2$. Using a combination of state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations and empirical models, we show that current galaxy-formation models do not produce enough star formation in protoclusters to match observations. We find that the star-formation rates (SFRs) predicted from the models are an order of magnitude lower than what is seen in observations, despite the relatively good agreement found for their mass-accretion histories, specifically that they lie on an evolutionary path to become Coma-like clusters at $z\,{\simeq}\, 0$. Using a well-studied protocluster core at $z\,{=}\,4.3$ as a test case, we find that star-formation efficiency of protocluster galaxies is higher than predicted by the models. We show that a large part of the discrepancy can be attributed to a dependence of SFR on the numerical resolution of the simulations, with a roughly factor of 3 drop in SFR when the spatial resolution decreases by a factor of 4. We also present predictions up to $z\,{\simeq}\,7$. Compared to lower redshifts, we find that centrals (the most massive member galaxies) are more distinct from the other galaxies, while protocluster galaxies are less distinct from field galaxies. All these results suggest that, as a rare and extreme population at high-$z$, protoclusters can help constrain galaxy formation models tuned to match the average population at $z\,{\simeq}\,0$., accepted for publication

We study the star formation histories (SFHs) and mass-weighted ages of 331 UVJ-selected quiescent galaxies in 11 galaxy clusters and in the field at 11 has been driven by different physical processes than those at play at z=0., Comment: accepted Sept 7 2020, MNRAS

In this work we consider the impact of spatially-uniform but time-varying dark energy (or `dynamical dark energy', DDE) on large-scale structure in a spatially flat universe, using large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that form part of the BAHAMAS project. As DDE changes the expansion history of the universe, it impacts the growth of structure. We explore variations in DDE that are constrained to be consistent with the cosmic microwave background. We find that DDE can affect the clustering of matter and haloes at the ~10% level (suppressing it for so-called `freezing' models, while enhancing it for `thawing' models), which should be distinguishable with upcoming large-scale structure surveys. DDE cosmologies can also enhance or suppress the halo mass function (with respect to LCDM) over a wide range of halo masses. The internal properties of haloes are minimally affected by changes in DDE, however. Finally, we show that the impact of baryons and associated feedback processes is largely independent of the change in cosmology and that these processes can be modelled separately to typically better than a few percent accuracy, 18 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

It has been claimed that the standard model of cosmology (LCDM) cannot easily account for a number of observations on relatively small scales, motivating extensions to the standard model. Here we introduce a new suite of cosmological simulations that systematically explores three plausible extensions: warm dark matter, self-interacting dark matter, and a running of the scalar spectral index of density fluctuations. Current observational constraints are used to specify the additional parameters that come with these extensions. We examine a large range of observable metrics on small scales, including the halo mass function, density and circular velocity profiles, the abundance of satellite subhaloes, and halo concentrations. For any given metric, significant degeneracies can be present between the extensions. In detail, however, the different extensions have quantitatively distinct mass and radial dependencies, suggesting that a multi-probe approach over a range of scales can be used to break the degeneracies. We also demonstrate that the relative effects on the radial density profiles in the different extensions (compared to the standard model) are converged down to significantly smaller radii than are the absolute profiles. We compare the derived cosmological trends with the impact of baryonic physics using the EAGLE and ARTEMIS simulations. Significant degeneracies are also present between baryonic physics and cosmological variations (with both having similar magnitude effects on some observables). Given the inherent uncertainties both in the modelling of galaxy formation physics and extensions to LCDM, a systematic and simultaneous exploration of both is strongly warranted., 22 pages, 12 figures, to match MNRAS accepted version

A large body of work based on collisionless cosmological N-body simulations going back over two decades has advanced the idea that collapsed dark matter haloes have simple and approximately universal forms for their mass density and pseudo-phase space density (PPSD) distributions. However, a general consensus on the physical origin of these results has not yet been reached. In the present study, we explore to what extent the apparent universality of these forms holds when we vary the initial conditions (i.e., the primordial power spectrum of density fluctuations) away from the standard CMB-normalised case, but still within the context of LCDM with a fixed expansion history. Using simulations that vary the initial amplitude and shape, we show that the structure of dark matter haloes retains a clear memory of the initial conditions. Specifically, increasing (lowering) the amplitude of fluctuations increases (decreases) the concentration of haloes and, if pushed far enough, the density profiles deviate strongly from the NFW form that is a good approximation for the CMB-normalised case. Although, an Einasto form works well. Rather than being universal, the slope of the PPSD (or pseudo-entropy) profile steepens (flattens) with increasing (decreasing) power spectrum amplitude and can exhibit a strong halo mass dependence. Our results therefore indicate that the previously identified universality of the structure of dark matter haloes is mostly a consequence of adopting a narrow range of (CMB-normalised) initial conditions for the simulations. Our new suite provides a useful test-bench against which physical models for the origin of halo structure can be validated., 20 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We study stellar property statistics, including satellite galaxy occupation, of massive halo populations realized by three cosmological hydrodynamics simulations: BAHAMAS + MACSIS, TNG300 of the IllustrisTNG suite, and Magneticum Pathfinder. The simulations incorporate independent sub-grid methods for astrophysical processes with spatial resolutions ranging from $1.5$ to $6$ kpc, and each generates samples of $1000$ or more halos with $M_{\rm halo}> 10^{13.5} M_{\odot}$ at redshift $z=0$. Applying localized, linear regression (LLR), we extract halo mass-conditioned statistics (normalizations, slopes, and intrinsic covariance) for a three-element stellar property vector consisting of: i) $N_{sat}$, the number of satellite galaxies with stellar mass, $M_{\star, \rm sat} > 10^{10} M_{\odot}$ within radius $R_{200c}$ of the halo; ii) $M_{\star,\rm tot}$, the total stellar mass within that radius, and; iii) $M_{\star,\rm BCG}$, the gravitationally-bound stellar mass of the central galaxy within a $100 \, \rm kpc$ radius. Scaling parameters for the three properties with halo mass show mild differences among the simulations, in part due to numerical resolution, but there is qualitative agreement on property correlations, with halos having smaller than average central galaxies tending to also have smaller total stellar mass and a larger number of satellite galaxies. Marginalizing over total halo mass, we find the satellite galaxy kernel, $p(\ln N_{sat}\,|\,M_{\rm halo},z)$ to be consistently skewed left, with skewness parameter $\gamma = -0.91 \pm 0.02$, while that of $\ln M_{\star,\rm tot}$ is closer to log-normal, in all three simulations. The highest resolution simulations find $\gamma \simeq -0.8$ for the $z=0$ shape of $p(\ln M_{\star,\rm BCG}\,|\,M_{\rm halo},z)$ and also that the fractional scatter in total stellar mass is below $10\%$ in halos more massive than $10^{14.3} M_{\odot}$., Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures

We introduce the ARTEMIS simulations, a new set of 42 zoomed-in, high-resolution (baryon particle mass of ~ 2x10^4 Msun/h), hydrodynamical simulations of galaxies residing in haloes of Milky Way mass, simulated with the EAGLE galaxy formation code with re-calibrated stellar feedback. In this study, we analyse the structure of stellar haloes, specifically the mass density, surface brightness, metallicity, colour and age radial profiles, finding generally very good agreement with recent observations of local galaxies. The stellar density profiles are well fitted by broken power laws, with inner slopes of ~ -3, outer slopes of ~ -4 and break radii that are typically ~ 20-40 kpc. The break radii generally mark the transition between in situ formation and accretion-driven formation of the halo. The metallicity, colour and age profiles show mild large-scale gradients, particularly when spherically-averaged or viewed along the major axes. Along the minor axes, however, the profiles are nearly flat, in agreement with observations. Overall, the structural properties can be understood by two factors: that in situ stars dominate the inner regions and that they reside in a spatially-flattened distribution that is aligned with the disc. Observations targeting both the major and minor axes of galaxies are thus required to obtain a complete picture of stellar haloes., Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Galaxy cluster outskirts mark the transition region from the mildly non-linear cosmic web to the highly non-linear, virialised, cluster interior. It is in this transition region that the intra-cluster medium (ICM) begins to influence the properties of accreting galaxies and groups, as ram pressure impacts a galaxy's cold gas content and subsequent star formation rate. Conversely, the thermodynamical properties of the ICM in this transition region should also feel the influence of accreting substructure (i.e. galaxies and groups), whose passage can drive shocks. In this paper, we use a suite of cosmological hydrodynamical zoom simulations of a single galaxy cluster, drawn from the nIFTy comparison project, to study how the dynamics of substructure accreted from the cosmic web influences the thermodynamical properties of the ICM in the cluster's outskirts. We demonstrate how features evident in radial profiles of the ICM (e.g. gas density and temperature) can be linked to strong shocks, transient and short-lived in nature, driven by the passage of substructure. The range of astrophysical codes and galaxy formation models in our comparison are broadly consistent in their predictions (e.g. agreeing when and where shocks occur, but differing in how strong shocks will be); this is as we would expect of a process driven by large-scale gravitational dynamics and strong, inefficiently radiating, shocks. This suggests that mapping such shock structures in the ICM in a cluster's outskirts (via e.g. radio synchrotron emission) could provide a complementary measure of its recent merger and accretion history., Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, version accepted for publication in MNRAS

We explore the impact of baryonic effects (namely stellar and AGN feedback) on the moments of pairwise velocity using the Illustris-TNG, EAGLE, cosmo-OWLS, and BAHAMAS suites of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. The assumption that the mean pairwise velocity of the gas component follows that of the dark matter is studied here at small separations, and we find that even at pair separations of 10-20 $h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$ there is a 4-5% velocity bias. At smaller separations, it gets larger with strength varying depending on the subgrid prescription. By isolating different physical processes, our findings suggest that the large scale velocity bias is mainly driven by stellar rather than AGN feedback. If unaccounted for, this velocity offset could possibly bias cosmological constraints from the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect in future cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys. Furthermore, we examine how the first and the second moment of the pairwise velocity are affected by both the baryonic and the neutrino free-streaming effects for both the matter and gas components. For both moments, we were able to disentangle the effects of baryonic processes from those of massive neutrinos; and below pair separations of 20 $h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$, we find that these moments of the pairwise velocity decrease with increasing neutrino mass. Our work thus paves a way in which the pairwise velocity statistics can be utilised to constrain the summed mass of neutrinos from future CMB surveys and peculiar velocity surveys., Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in A&A

We evaluate the ability of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to predict galaxy cluster masses in the BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations. We train four separate single-channel networks using: stellar mass, soft X-ray flux, bolometric X-ray flux, and the Compton $y$ parameter as observational tracers, respectively. Our training set consists of $\sim$4800 synthetic cluster images generated from the simulation, while an additional $\sim$3200 images form a validation set and a test set, each with 1600 images. In order to mimic real observation, these images also contain uncorrelated structures located within 50 Mpc in front and behind clusters and seen in projection, as well as instrumental systematics including noise and smoothing. In addition to CNNs for all the four observables, we also train a `multi-channel' CNN by combining the four observational tracers. The learning curves of all the five CNNs converge within 1000 epochs. The resulting predictions are especially precise for halo masses in the range $10^{13.25}M_{\odot}, Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables, Accepted for Publication on MNRAS

Dark matter (DM) direct detection experiments aim to place constraints on the DM--nucleon scattering cross-section and the DM particle mass. These constraints depend sensitively on the assumed local DM density and velocity distribution function. While astrophysical observations can inform the former (in a model-dependent way), the latter is not directly accessible with observations. Here we use the high-resolution ARTEMIS cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite of 42 Milky Way-mass halos to explore the spatial and kinematical distributions of the DM in the solar neighbourhood, and we examine how these quantities are influenced by substructures, baryons, the presence of dark discs, as well as general halo-to-halo scatter (cosmic variance). We also explore the accuracy of the standard Maxwellian approach for modelling the velocity distribution function. We find significant halo-to-halo scatter in the density and velocity functions which, if propagated through the standard halo model for predicting the DM detection limits, implies a significant scatter about the typically quoted limit. We also show that, in general, the Maxwellian approximation works relatively well for simulations that include the important gravitational effects of baryons, but is less accurate for collisionless (DM-only) simulations. Given the significant halo-to-halo scatter in quantities relevant for DM direct detection, we advocate propagating this source of uncertainty through in order to derive conservative DM detection limits., Comment: 37 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in JCAP

We use the cosmo-OWLS and BAHAMAS suites of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to explore the separate and combined effects of baryon physics (particularly feedback from active galactic nuclei, AGN) and free-streaming of massive neutrinos on large-scale structure. We focus on five diagnostics: i) the halo mass function; ii) halo mass density profiles; iii) the halo mass-concentration relation; iv) the clustering of haloes; and v) the clustering of matter; and we explore the extent to which the effects of baryon physics and neutrino free-streaming can be treated independently. Consistent with previous studies, we find that both AGN feedback and neutrino free-streaming suppress the total matter power spectrum, although their scale and redshift dependencies differ significantly. The inclusion of AGN feedback can significantly reduce the masses of groups and clusters, and increase their scale radii. These effects lead to a decrease in the amplitude of the mass-concentration relation and an increase in the halo autocorrelation function at fixed mass. Neutrinos also lower the masses of groups and clusters while having no significant effect on the shape of their density profiles (thus also affecting the mass-concentration relation and halo clustering in a qualitatively similar way to feedback). We show that, with only a small number of exceptions, the combined effects of baryon physics and neutrino free-streaming on all five diagnostics can be estimated to typically better than a few percent accuracy by treating these processes independently (i.e., by multiplying their separate effects)., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS. 19 pages, 14 figures

Observations with the Chandra X-ray Observatory are used to examine the hot gas properties within a sample of 10 galaxy groups selected from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly survey's optical Friends-of-Friends group catalogue. Our groups have been screened to eliminate spurious and unrelaxed systems, and the effectiveness of this procedure is demonstrated by the detection of intergalactic hot gas in 80 per cent of our sample. However, we find that 9 of the 10 are X-ray underluminous by a mean factor of $\sim$4 compared to typical X-ray-selected samples. Consistent with this, the majority of our groups have gas fractions that are lower and gas entropies somewhat higher than those seen in typical X-ray-selected samples. Two groups, which have high 2{\sigma} lower limits on their gas entropy, are candidates for the population of high-entropy groups predicted by some active galactic nucleus feedback models., Comment: 18 pages, 7 Figures with 10 subfigures, 5 Tables, Accepted by MNRAS

The Gaia astrometric mission may offer an unprecedented opportunity to discover new tidal streams in the Galactic halo. To test this, we apply nGC3, a great-circle-cell count method that combines position and proper motion data to identify streams, to ten mock Gaia catalogues of K giants and RR Lyrae stars constructed from cosmological simulations of Milky Way analogues. We analyse two sets of simulations, one using a combination of $N$-body and semi-analytical methods which has extremely high resolution, the other using hydro-dynamical methods, which captures the dynamics of baryons, including the formation of an in situ halo. These ten realisations of plausible Galactic merger histories allow us to assess the potential for the recovery of tidal streams in different Milky Way formation scenarios. We include the Gaia~selection function and observational errors in these mock catalogues. We find that the nGC3 method has a well-defined detection boundary in the space of stream width and projected overdensity, that can be predicted based on direct observables alone. We predict that about 4-13 dwarf galaxy streams can be detected in a typical Milky Way-mass halo with Gaia+nGC3, with an estimated efficiency of $>$80\% inside the detection boundary. The progenitors of these streams are in the mass range of the classical dwarf galaxies and may have been accreted as early as redshift $\sim3$. Finally, we analyse how different possible extensions of the Gaia mission will improve the detection of tidal streams., 25 pages, 15 figures, MNRAS in press. Updated to match accepted version, includes new discussion of distance distribution of recovered progenitors. Stream candidates and full mock catalogues available at https://cmateu.github.io/Cecilia_Mateu_WebPage/Gaia_Halo_Mocks.html

We examine the properties of atomic hydrogen (HI) associated with galaxies in the EAGLE simulations of galaxy formation. EAGLE's feedback parameters were calibrated to reproduce the stellar mass function and galaxy sizes at $z=0.1$, and we assess whether this calibration also yields realistic HI properties. We estimate the self-shielding density with a fitting function calibrated using radiation transport simulations, and correct for molecular hydrogen with empirical or theoretical relations. The `standard-resolution' simulations systematically underestimate HI column densities, leading to an HI deficiency in low-mass ($M_\star < 10^{10}M_\odot$) galaxies and poor reproduction of the observed HI mass function. These shortcomings are largely absent from EAGLE simulations featuring a factor of 8 (2) better mass (spatial) resolution, within which the HI mass of galaxies evolves more mildly from $z=1$ to $0$ than in the standard-resolution simulations. The largest-volume simulation reproduces the observed clustering of HI systems, and its dependence on HI-richness. At fixed $M_\star$, galaxies acquire more HI in simulations with stronger feedback, as they become associated with more massive haloes and higher infall rates. They acquire less HI in simulations with a greater star formation efficiency, since the star formation and feedback necessary to balance the infall rate is produced by smaller gas reservoirs. The simulations indicate that the HI of present-day galaxies was acquired primarily by the smooth accretion of ionized, intergalactic gas at $z\simeq1$, which later self-shields, and that only a small fraction is contributed by the reincorporation of gas previously heated strongly by feedback. HI reservoirs are highly dynamic: over $40$ percent of HI associated with $z=0.1$ galaxies is converted to stars or ejected by $z=0$., Accepted for publication by MNRAS. v2: minor changes from submitted manuscript

The location of a galaxy cluster's centroid is typically derived from observations of the galactic and/or gas component of the cluster, but these typically deviate from the true centre. This can produce bias when observations are combined to study average cluster properties. Using data from the BAHAMAS cosmological hydrodynamic simulations we study this bias in both two and three dimensions for 2000 clusters over the $10^{13} - 10^{15} ~\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ mass range. We quantify and model the offset distributions between observationally-motivated centres and the `true' centre of the cluster, which is taken to be the most gravitationally bound particle measured in the simulation. We fit the cumulative distribution function of offsets with an exponential distribution and a Gamma distribution fit well with most of the centroid definitions. The galaxy-based centres can be seen to be divided into a mis-centred group and a well-centred group, with the well-centred group making up about $60\%$ of all the clusters. Gas-based centres are overall less scattered than galaxy-based centres. We also find a cluster-mass dependence of the offset distribution of gas-based centres, with generally larger offsets for smaller mass clusters. We then measure cluster density profiles centred at each choice of the centres and fit them with empirical models. Stacked, mis-centred density profiles fit to the Navarro-Frenk-White dark-matter profile and Komatsu-Seljak gas profile show that recovered shape and size parameters can significantly deviate from the true values. For the galaxy-based centres, this can lead to cluster masses being underestimated by up to $10\%$., 12 pages, 9 Figures

Upcoming weak lensing surveys require a detailed theoretical understanding of the matter power spectrum in order to derive accurate and precise cosmological parameter values. While galaxy formation is known to play an important role, its precise effects are currently unknown. We present a set of 92 matter power spectra from the OWLS, cosmo-OWLS and BAHAMAS simulation suites, including different $\Lambda$CDM cosmologies, neutrino masses, subgrid prescriptions and AGN feedback strengths. We conduct a detailed investigation of the dependence of the relative difference between the total matter power spectra in hydrodynamical and collisionless simulations on the effectiveness of stellar and AGN feedback, cosmology and redshift. The strength of AGN feedback can greatly affect the power on a range of scales, while a lack of stellar feedback can greatly increase the effectiveness of AGN feedback on large scales. We also examine differences in the initial conditions of hydrodynamic and N-body simulations that can lead to a ~1% discrepancy in the large-scale power, and furthermore show our results to be insensitive to cosmic variance. We present an empirical model capable of predicting the effect of galaxy formation on the matter power spectrum at z=0 to within 1% for k, Comment: 26 pages, 21 figures. Data is now online

Models of cold dark matter (CDM) predict that the distribution of dark matter in galaxy clusters should be cuspy, centrally concentrated. Constant density cores would be strong evidence for beyond CDM physics, such as self-interacting dark matter (SIDM). An observable consequence would be oscillations of the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) in otherwise relaxed galaxy clusters. Offset BCGs have indeed been observed – but only interpreted via a simplified, analytic model of oscillations. We compare these observations to the BAryons and HAloes of MAssive Sysmtes (BAHAMAS)–SIDM suite of cosmological simulations, which include SIDM and a fully hydrodynamical treatment of star formation and feedback. We predict that the median offset of BCGs increases with the SIDM cross-section, cluster mass, and the amount of stellar mass within 10 kpc, while CDM exhibits no trend in mass. Interpolating between the simulated cross-sections, we find that the observations (of 10 clusters) are consistent with CDM at the ∼1.5σ level, and prefer cross-section σ/m < 0.12(0.39) cm2 g−1 at 68 per cent (95 per cent) confidence level. This is on the verge of ruling out velocity-independent dark matter self-interactions as the solution to discrepancies between the predicted and observed behaviour of dwarf galaxies, and will be improved by larger surveys by Euclid or Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT).

We present BAHAMAS-SIDM, the first large-volume, (400/h Mpc)^3, cosmological simulations including both self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) and baryonic physics. These simulations are important for two primary reasons: 1) they include the effects of baryons on the dark matter distribution 2) the baryon particles can be used to make mock observables that can be compared directly with observations. As is well known, SIDM haloes are systematically less dense in their centres, and rounder, than CDM haloes. Here we find that that these changes are not reflected in the distribution of gas or stars within galaxy clusters, or in their X-ray luminosities. However, gravitational lensing observables can discriminate between DM models, and we present a menu of tests that future surveys could use to measure the SIDM interaction strength. We ray-trace our simulated galaxy clusters to produce strong lensing maps. Including baryons boosts the lensing strength of clusters that produce no critical curves in SIDM-only simulations. Comparing the Einstein radii of our simulated clusters with those observed in the CLASH survey, we find that at velocities around 1000 km/s an SIDM cross-section of sigma/m > 1 cm^2/g is likely incompatible with observed cluster lensing., 19 pages, 13 figures, updated to match MNRAS version

Running hydrodynamical simulations to produce mock data of large-scale structure and baryonic probes, such as the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect, at cosmological scales is computationally challenging. We propose to leverage the expressive power of deep generative models to find an effective description of the large-scale gas distribution and temperature. We train two deep generative models, a variational auto-encoder and a generative adversarial network, on pairs of matter density and pressure slices from the BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulation. The trained models are able to successfully map matter density to the corresponding gas pressure. We then apply the trained models on 100 lines-of-sight from SLICS, a suite of N-body simulations optimised for weak lensing covariance estimation, to generate maps of the tSZ effect. The generated tSZ maps are found to be statistically consistent with those from BAHAMAS. We conclude by considering a specific observable, the angular cross-power spectrum between the weak lensing convergence and the tSZ effect and its variance, where we find excellent agreement between the predictions from BAHAMAS and SLICS, thus enabling the use of SLICS for tSZ covariance estimation., Comments welcome. Code and trained models can be found at https://www.github.com/tilmantroester/baryon_painter. Accepted in MNRAS Letters

Observational cosmology in the next decade will rely on probes of the distribution of matter in the redshift range between $0, Comment: 26 pages, 4 figures, a short review, accepted in The Open Journal of Astrophysics

We search the Planck data for a thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) signal due to gas filaments between pairs of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRG's) taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 (SDSS/DR12). We identify $\sim$260,000 LRG pairs in the DR12 catalog that lie within 6-10 $h^{-1} \mathrm{Mpc}$ of each other in tangential direction and within 6 $h^{-1} \mathrm{Mpc}$ in radial direction. We stack pairs by rotating and scaling the angular positions of each LRG so they lie on a common reference frame, then we subtract a circularly symmetric halo from each member of the pair to search for a residual signal between the pair members. We find a statistically significant (5.3$\sigma$) signal between LRG pairs in the stacked data with a magnitude $\Delta y = (1.31 \pm 0.25) \times 10^{-8}$. The uncertainty is estimated from two Monte Carlo null tests which also establish the reliability of our analysis. Assuming a simple, isothermal, cylindrical filament model of electron over-density with a radial density profile proportional to $r_c/r$ (as determined from simulations), where $r$ is the perpendicular distance from the cylinder axis and $r_c$ is the core radius of the density profile, we constrain the product of over-density and filament temperature to be $\delta_c \times (T_{\rm e}/10^7 \, {\rm K}) \times (r_c/0.5h^{-1} \, {\rm Mpc}) = 2.7 \pm 0.5$. To our knowledge, this is the first detection of filamentary gas at over-densities typical of cosmological large-scale structure. We compare our result to the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations (McCarthy et al. 2017) and find a slightly lower, but marginally consistent Comptonization excess, $\Delta y = (0.84 \pm 0.24) \times 10^{-8}$., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS (v4 and v5 to include funding acknowledgements. No other changes.)

We construct the mean thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) Comptonization y profile around Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) in the redshift range 0.16 < z < 0.47 from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 (DR7) using the Planck y map. The mean central tSZ signal for the full sample is y ~ 1.8 * 10^(-7) and we detect tSZ emission out to ~30 arcmin, which is well beyond the 10 arcmin angular resolution of the y map and well beyond the virial radii of the LRGs. We compare the measured profile with predictions from the cosmo-OWLS suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. This comparison agrees well for models that include feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN), but not with hydrodynamic models without this energetic feedback mechanism. This suggests that an additional heating mechanism is required over SNe feedback and star formation to explain the y data profile. We also compare our results with predictions based on the halo model with a universal pressure profile (UPP) giving the y signal. The predicted profile is consistent with the data, but only if we account for the clustering of haloes via a two-halo term and if halo masses are estimated using the mean stellar-to-halo mass (SHM) relation of Coupon et al. (2015) or Wang et al.(2016) estimated from gravitational lensing measurements. We also discuss the importance of scatter in the SHM relation on the model predictions., 12 pages, 6 figures, accepted by MNRAS

For more than two decades, the Navarro, Frenk, and White (NFW) model has stood the test of time; it has been used to describe the distribution of mass in galaxy clusters out to their outskirts. Stacked weak lensing measurements of clusters are now revealing the distribution of mass out to and beyond their virial radii, where the NFW model is no longer applicable. In this study we assess how well the parameterised Diemer & Kravstov (DK) density profile describes the characteristic mass distribution of galaxy clusters extracted from cosmological simulations. This is determined from stacked synthetic lensing measurements of the 50 most massive clusters extracted from the Cosmo-OWLS simulations, using the Dark Matter Only run and also the run that most closely matches observations. The characteristics of the data reflect the Weighing the Giants survey and data from the future Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). In comparison with the NFW model, the DK model favored by the stacked data, in particular for the future LSST data, where the number density of background galaxies is higher. The DK profile depends on the accretion history of clusters which is specified in the current study. Eventually however subsamples of galaxy clusters with qualities indicative of disparate accretion histories could be studied., 15 pages, 14 figures, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society accepted 17-May-2018

Weak gravitational lensing depends on the integrated mass along the line of sight. Baryons contribute to the mass distribution of galaxy clusters and the resulting mass estimates from lensing analysis. We use the cosmo-OWLS suite of hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the impact of baryonic processes on the bias and scatter of weak lensing mass estimates of clusters. These estimates are obtained by fitting NFW profiles to mock data using MCMC techniques. In particular, we examine the difference in estimates between dark matter-only runs and those including various prescriptions for baryonic physics. We find no significant difference in the mass bias when baryonic physics is included, though the overall mass estimates are suppressed when feedback from AGN is included. For lowest-mass systems for which a reliable mass can be obtained ($M_{200} \approx 2 \times 10^{14}$ $M_{\odot}$), we find a bias of $\approx -10$ per cent. The magnitude of the bias tends to decrease for higher mass clusters, consistent with no bias for the most massive clusters which have masses comparable to those found in the CLASH and HFF samples. For the lowest mass clusters, the mass bias is particularly sensitive to the fit radii and the limits placed on the concentration prior, rendering reliable mass estimates difficult. The scatter in mass estimates between the dark matter-only and the various baryonic runs is less than between different projections of individual clusters, highlighting the importance of triaxiality., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. Accepted by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

Modern cosmological simulations rely heavily on feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) in order to stave off overcooling in massive galaxies and galaxy groups and clusters. An important independent test is whether or not the simulations capture the broad demographics of the observed AGN population. Here, we have used the cosmo-OWLS suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to produce realistic synthetic catalogs of X-ray AGN out to $z$=3, with the aim of comparing the catalogs to the observed X-ray AGN population in the XXL survey and other recent surveys. We focused on the unabsorbed X-ray luminosity function (XLF), the Eddington ratio distribution, the black hole mass function, and the projected clustering of X-ray AGN. To compute the unabsorbed XLF of the simulated AGN, we used recent empirically-determined bolometric corrections. We show that the simulated AGN sample accurately reproduces the observed XLF over 3 orders of magnitude in X-ray luminosity in all redshift bins. To compare to the observed Eddington ratio distribution and the clustering of AGN, we produced detailed 'XMM-Newton-detected' catalogs of the simulated AGN. This requires the production of synthetic X-ray images extracted from light cones of the simulations that fold in the relevant instrumental effects of XMM-Newton. We apply a luminosity- and redshift-dependent obscuration function for the AGN and employ the same AGN detection algorithm as used for the real XXL survey. We demonstrate that the detected population of simulated AGN reproduces the observed Eddington ratio distribution and projected clustering from XXL quite well. We conclude that the simulations have a broadly realistic population of AGN and that our synthetic X-ray AGN catalogs should be useful for interpreting additional trends and as a helpful tool for quantifying AGN contamination in galaxy group and cluster X-ray surveys., Comment: 14 pages, accepted for publication in A&A

We test the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium in an X-ray luminosity selected sample of 50 galaxy clusters at $0.15, Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, accepted by MNRAS