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This study delves into ionospheric characteristics during solar cycle 24 using data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, GOCE. The present study fills the gap of not assessing and studying GOCE satellite data before in Egypt. Focusing on spatial and temporal variations of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) over Egypt and the Middle East across a 4-year dataset, monthly average Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) variations are scrutinized, emphasizing extremes during heightened and reduced solar and geomagnetic activities. Results TEC typically decreases with latitude’s increase, with peak ionization during equinoxes and troughs during solstices. Notably, VTEC values consistently reach maximum values on days of heightened solar and geomagnetic activities. GOCE data is evaluated against International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model and NeQuick2 model by selecting 10 days from all data by using a statistical comparison via t-tests. There is not significant difference between them except for two days between GOCE-IRI. The values of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are 3.7403 and 4.4655 for GOCE – NeQuick2 model and GOCE – IRI model, respectively. Ionospheric scintillation, signifying rapid electron density fluctuations, is assessed through amplitude scintillation index (S4), S4 proxy, and Rate Of TEC Index (ROTI). A robust correlation between S4 and S4 proxy is noted, thus scintillation can be studied by using S4 proxy instead of S4. Temporal variations indicate heightened scintillation during geomagnetic storms and peak solar activity, contrasting with reduced activity during solar minimum. Throughout the study period the maximum scintillation index values for ROTI, S4, and S4 proxy are 0.3, 0.15, and 0.05, indicating minimal scintillation. This comprehensive analysis, rooted in GOCE data, illuminates spatial and temporal dynamics of ionospheric TEC and elucidates ionospheric scintillation characteristics in the Egypt region. These findings are crucial for refining ionospheric models, improving scintillation prediction, and enhancing satellite communication and navigation systems, especially in the study region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study evaluated the applicability of IRI-2016 model in predicting GPS TEC using the monthly means of the five (5) quiet days for equinoxes and solstices months. GPS-derived TEC data were obtained from the IGS network of ground based dual frequency GPS receivers from three stations [(KYN3 0.53° S, 38.53° E; Geom. Lat. 3.91.63° S), (MBAR 0.60° S, 30.74° E; Geom. Lat. 2.76° S) and HOID 1.45° S, 31.34° E; Geom. Lat. 3.71° S]. All the three options for topside Ne of IRI-2016 model and ABT-2009 for bottomside thickness have been used to compute the IRI TEC. The results were compared with the GPS TEC measurements. Correlation Coefficients between the two sets of data, the Root-Mean Square Errors of the IRI-TEC from the GPS-TEC, and the percentage RMSE of the IRI-TEC from the GPS-TEC have been computed. In general, the IRI-2016 model underestimated GPS-TEC during the nighttime, whereas the model overestimated GPS-TEC values during the daytime. At most of the stations and during all seasons where data were available, correlation coefficient was above 0.9, which is quite strong. The variation of O/N2 ratio may potentially be the cause of the IRI TEC deviation from the GPS TEC. This variation arises from lower thermosphere plasma drift that moves upward.

This study evaluated the applicability of IRI-2016 model in predicting GPS TEC using the monthly means of the five (5) quiet days for equinoxes and solstices months. GPS-derived TEC data were obtained from the IGS network of ground based dual frequency GPS receivers from three stations [(KYN3 0.53° S, 38.53° E; Geom. Lat. 3.91.63° S), (MBAR 0.60° S, 30.74° E; Geom. Lat. 2.76° S) and HOID 1.45° S, 31.34° E; Geom. Lat. 3.71° S]. All the three options for topside Ne of IRI-2016 model and ABT-2009 for bottomside thickness have been used to compute the IRI TEC. The results were compared with the GPS TEC measurements. Correlation Coefficients between the two sets of data, the Root-Mean Square Errors of the IRI-TEC from the GPS-TEC, and the percentage RMSE of the IRI-TEC from the GPS-TEC have been computed. In general, the IRI-2016 model underestimated GPS-TEC during the nighttime, whereas the model overestimated GPS-TEC values during the daytime. At most of the stations and during all seasons where data were available, correlation coefficient was above 0.9, which is quite strong. The variation of O/N2 ratio may potentially be the cause of the IRI TEC deviation from the GPS TEC. This variation arises from lower thermosphere plasma drift that moves upward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new analytical formula for H0, one of the three parameters (H0, g, and r) on which the NeQuick model is based to describe the altitude profile of the electron density above the F2-layer peak height hmF2, has recently been proposed. This new analytical representation of H0, called H0,corr, relies on numerical grids based on two different types of datasets. On one side, electron density observations by the Swarm satellites over Europe from December 2013 to September 2018, and on the other side, IRI UP (International Reference Ionosphere UPdate) maps over Europe of the critical frequency of the ordinary mode of propagation associated with the F2 layer, foF2, and hmF2, at 15 min cadence for the same period. The new NeQuick topside representation based on H0,corr, hereafter referred to as NeQuick-corr, improved the original NeQuick topside representation. This work updates the numerical grids of H0,corr by extending the underlying Swarm and IRI UP datasets until December 2021, thus allowing coverage of low solar activity levels, as well. Moreover, concerning Swarm, besides the original dataset, the calibrated one is considered, and corresponding grids of H0,corr calculated. At the same time, the role of g is investigated, by considering values different from the reference one, equal to 0.125, currently adopted. To understand what are the best H0,corr grids to be considered for the NeQuick-corr topside representation, vertical total electron content data for low, middle, and high latitudes, recorded from five low-Earth-orbit satellite missions (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3, GRACE, METOP, TerraSAR-X, and Swarm) have been analyzed. The updated H0,corr grids based on the original Swarm dataset with a value for g = 0.15, and the updated H0,corr grids based on the calibrated Swarm dataset with a value for g = 0.14, are those for which the best results are obtained. The results show that the performance of the different NeQuick-corr models is reliable also for low latitudes, even though these are outside the spatial domain for which the H0,corr grids were obtained, and are dependent on solar activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents the application of Neural Networks (NNs) techniques to develop an empirical model for foF2, the critical frequency of the F2 ionospheric layer. Prediction of foF2 parameter is important because of the paucity of data in some areas of the globe (due to uneven distributions of ground- based measuring equipment) and, also, because of the roles it plays in high frequency communications and navigation purposes. Hourly values of foF2 corresponding to the period 1985–2007 and obtained from 105 World-wide distributed ionospheric stations, have been considered in this work. A statistical analysis of the difference between NN model-derived and the corresponding experimental foF2 values was carried out for eleven (11) selected ionospheric stations during periods of very high (year 2000), relatively low (year 2006) and very low (year 2008) solar activity. In particular, the ionospheric behavior during the years 2000 and 2008 appeared to be very challenging to be captured for any empirical model. For comparison purposes, the same kind of statistical analysis was performed with foF2 values as obtained from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model and from NeQuick 2 model. Results of the statistical comparison confirmed that the neural network modelling approach is suitable to describe in a climatological way the main characteristics of the ionosphere F2 layer peak frequency, also over the extended geographic region where the additional sensor stations were located. The results obtained also indicate that the NN predictions and NeQuick 2 algorithm driven by solar flux (F10.7) index have similar performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements provided by Global Positioning System (GPS) as well as the International Reference Ionosphere – 2016 model (IRI01-Corr, IRI-2001, and NeQuick) model were compared at two Indian GPS stations: equatorial station Bangalore (12.580N, 77.350 E) and equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) station Lucknow (26.500N, 80.550 E) during the solar cycle 24 extending from 2007 to 2017. The spectral, regression and statistical analysis displays a double-hump shape with counterclockwise hysteresis within TEC. The solar flux along with the TEC showed erratic as well as sluggish trends throughout the increasing period and flat and rapid throughout the decreasing period of the solar cycle 24. The semiannual and winter anomaly is discovered to be a constant feature throughout the solar cycle. The main idea of the current study is to investigate the performance of IRI01-Corr, IRI-2001, and NeQuick TEC in contrast to GPS TEC data throughout solar cycle 24 at the Indian equatorial and EIA stations. The modeled TEC data exhibit almost complete agreement with the measurement highlighting the same trends in the solar cycle as well as semiannual and seasonal changes. However, there are clear biases between the observed and modeled TECs when local time, seasons, as well as solar activity phases are considered. The main findings of this paper are that the NeQuick model generally underestimates noon-time TEC while the IRI-2001 model overestimates the same. The error in estimating noontime TEC from the IRI model using IRI-2001 as a topside at the EIA station is higher (142 %) than that at the equatorial station (42 %). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the main updates characterizing the new version of IONORT (IONOsperic Ray Tracing), a software tool developed at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia to determine both the path of a high frequency (HF) radio wave propagating in the ionospheric medium, and the group time delay of the wave itself along the path. One of the main changes concerns the replacement of a regional three-dimensional electron density matrix, which was previously taken as input to represent the ionosphere, with a global one. Therefore, it is now possible to carry out different ray tracings from whatever point of the Earth's surface, simply by selecting suitable loop cycles thanks to the new ray tracing graphical user interface (GUI). At the same time, thanks to a homing GUI, it is also possible to generate synthetic oblique ionograms for whatever radio link chosen by the user. Both ray tracing and homing GUIs will be described in detail providing at the same time some practical examples of their use for different regions. IONORT software finds practical application in the planning of HF radio links, exploiting the sky wave, through an accurate and thorough knowledge of the ionospheric medium. HF radio waves users, including broadcasting and civil aviation, would benefit from the use of the IONORT software (version 2023.10). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates the effects of two intense geomagnetic storms on Total Electron Content (TEC) in the ionosphere at high latitude stations situated in different hemispheres. Using ground-based GNSS receivers and the IRI-2016 model, the study analyzes TEC data collected from Kerguelen station (55.78°S, 133.44°E) in the southern hemisphere and Sodankyla station (63.83°N, 118.27°E) in the northern hemisphere. Substantial TEC fluctuations were observed during both geomagnetic storms, with more pronounced variations recorded over the Sodankyla station. Interestingly, during these storm events, nighttime TEC closely reached the daytime TEC levels, implying the inflow of additional plasma from higher latitudes in to the region. Through a comparative analysis using change in TEC (dTEC), it was found that Kerguelen station, situated farther from the geomagnetic polar region, exhibited more significant TEC alterations compared to the closer, Sodankyla station. While the observational measurement exhibited a positive ionospheric effect to the intense storms at both stations, IRI-2016 model showed negative responses during the initial, main, and recovery phases. Despite the significant correlation between IRI-TEC and GPS-TEC, error percentage and Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) plots represented that the IRI model struggled to accurately capture TEC fluctuations across various storm phases. Furthermore, the study examined the relative contributions of storm-induced changes in ionospheric O and N2 using the global map of Oxygen to Nitrogen ratio (O/N2) obtained from Thermosphere/Ionosphere Plasmasphere (CTIP) model, revealing a higher impact over Kerguelen station in comparison to Sodankyla station. Overall, this work helps to advance our understanding of geomagnetic storms impact on ionospheric TEC at high latitudes and highlights the current limitations in modeling approaches for accurately predicting ionospheric behavior during such dynamic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ionosphere is an atmospheric region in which a large number of charged particles interact. Therefore, the production and loss mechanisms in this region play an important role in the modeling and interpretation of the ionosphere. In this study, the cross-section (CS) values, calculated by kinetic theory, were used to validate the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model at four different heights (210 km, 240 km, 340 km, and 410 km) on the equinox (March and September) and solstice (June and December) days in 2008 and 2015. The CS values were obtained by using both the temperatures of ions and electrons predicted in the IRI 2007, 2012, and 2016 versions, and the temperatures measured by the Kharkiv incoherent scatter radar (ISR). As a result of the calculation, the CS values in the solar minimum year (in 2008) were greater than those with moderate solar activity in the solar declining phase year (in 2015). The three versions of IRI show almost the same value in 2008. While these values are consistent with the values obtained from the ISR during the day, they are quite low at night. Validation of the model was carried out using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metrics. According to RMSE and MAPE values, it can be said that the predictions of all three versions of the IRI model are quite good. It can also be stated that the estimations of IRI-2016 are generally better than those of other versions of the IRI model. However, it is important to use ISR data to improve estimations of models at lower altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new analytical formula for H0, one of the three parameters (H0, g, and r) on which the NeQuick model is based to describe the altitude profile of the electron density above the F2-layer peak height hmF2, has recently been proposed. This new analytical representation of H0, called H0,corr, relies on numerical grids based on two different types of datasets. On one side, electron density observations by the Swarm satellites over Europe from December 2013 to September 2018, and on the other side, IRI UP (International Reference Ionosphere UPdate) maps over Europe of the critical frequency of the ordinary mode of propagation associated with the F2 layer, foF2, and hmF2, at 15 min cadence for the same period. The new NeQuick topside representation based on H0,corr, hereafter referred to as NeQuick-corr, improved the original NeQuick topside representation. This work updates the numerical grids of H0,corr by extending the underlying Swarm and IRI UP datasets until December 2021, thus allowing coverage of low solar activity levels, as well. Moreover, concerning Swarm, besides the original dataset, the calibrated one is considered, and corresponding grids of H0,corr calculated. At the same time, the role of g is investigated, by considering values different from the reference one, equal to 0.125, currently adopted. To understand what are the best H0,corr grids to be considered for the NeQuick-corr topside representation, vertical total electron content data for low, middle, and high latitudes, recorded from five low-Earth-orbit satellite missions (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3, GRACE, METOP, TerraSAR-X, and Swarm) have been analyzed. The updated H0,corr grids based on the original Swarm dataset with a value for g = 0.15, and the updated H0,corr grids based on the calibrated Swarm dataset with a value for g = 0.14, are those for which the best results are obtained. The results show that the performance of the different NeQuick-corr models is reliable also for low latitudes, even though these are outside the spatial domain for which the H0,corr grids were obtained, and are dependent on solar activity.

• Low-latitude topside ionosphere mismodelling made by NeQuick. • Improving of the NeQuick topside representation through COSMIC-1 data. • Different topside tests with different values of the NeQuick topside parameters. This paper deals with the well-known mismodelling characterizing the NeQuick topside ionosphere at low latitudes, i.e., the fact that the model keeps the two electron density humps typical of the equatorial ionization anomaly as the altitude increases from the height of the F2-layer electron density peak, without merging them in a single peak above the geomagnetic equator as expected. This is because the NeQuick topside ionosphere modelling strongly depends on several bottomside ionosphere parameters, which causes an essential coupling between the topside and the bottomside that in many cases behave differently. This means that this kind of topside ionosphere modelling may lead to inaccurate results, as it is the maintenance at low latitudes of the electron density double hump structure in the topside as the altitude increases. On the base of some recently published results, this paper analyzes the role played by the three NeQuick scale height parameters H 0 , g and r in the description of the electron density above the F2 layer peak height. The results of this work pave the way for a possible solution of this low-latitude NeQuick topside ionosphere mismodelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• IRI and TIE GCM TEC with GPS TEC data at southern low latitude are analyzed. • Diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle variability in GPS, IRI, and TIE-GCM TEC are studied. • Regression and statistical techniques are used to find model deviations. The Total Electron Content (TEC) derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements during the solar cycle-24 at COCO Island (12.20⁰ S, 96.80⁰ E) are compared with those of International Reference Ionosphere-2016 (IRI-2016) model and Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). TEC data derived from the above two models follow the nature of observed variations with considerable divergences in amplitudes. The precision of model TEC in reference to GPS TEC is discussed using a correlation coefficient, mean difference, root mean square error, and relative deviation module mean techniques. The randomness of predictions is found to be biased by the solar cycle, season, and local time. The simulated values showed better accuracy during the low solar activity and night hours. This study is an extension of Rao et al. (2019b), in which we reported similar study of TEC variability at the northern low latitude station. First of all, it is observed from two studies that the magnitude of TEC is greater at the southern low latitude than at the northern low latitude. Also the correlation between GPS TEC/ IRI TEC and F10.7 flux is determined to be greater at northern low latitude station compared to southern low latitude station. However, TIE-GCM TEC values are found to be slightly more correlated with F10.7 flux at southern low latitude station compared to northern low latitude station. With regard to seasonal variation, semiannual oscillations in TEC are found to be coherent on both sides of the equator. However, the winter anomaly is not observed or predicted by models at the southern low latitude whereas it is observed to be a solar flux-dependent feature at the northern low latitude. The IRI model closely follows seasonal trends of TEC whereas TIE-GCM over-predicted TEC during solstices at the northern low latitudes. Models TEC deviations are found to be lesser at the southern low latitude compared to northern low latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The behavior of the Brazilian equatorial ionosphere during the solar minimum periods, 1996 and 2009, which cover the solar cycles 22/23 and 23/24, respectively, is investigated. For this, the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and peak height (hmF2) registered by a Digisonde operated at São Luis (2.33° S; 44° W) are carefully analyzed. The results show that the seasonal mean values of the foF2 and the hmF2 in the equinoxes and winter during 2009 were lower than in 1996. In the summer, an anomalous response to solar variability was observed. In this case, the hmF2 in 2009 is higher than in 1996 during a specific daytime interval. Besides that, it was verified that the prereversal enhancement of the zonal electric field (PRE) during the equinoxes in 2009 occurred a few minutes earlier than in 1996. Additionally, a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis was used to investigate the impacts of solar atmospheric tides (amplitude, diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal modes) on foF2 and hmF2 parameters with respect to its seasonality. Significant differences were observed between their values during the two minima, mainly in the amplitude of hmF2, which was higher in 1996 than in 2009 for all days analyzed. Moreover, the seasonality in the diurnal and semidiurnal modes for both periods presented an annual variability, while the terdiurnal mode exhibited annual and semiannual components. The results are compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the main differences between the observation and the model results are discussed in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the main updates characterizing the new version of IONORT (IONOsperic Ray Tracing), a software tool developed at Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia to determine both the path of a high frequency (HF) radio wave propagating in the ionospheric medium, and the group time delay of the wave itself along the path. One of the main changes concerns the replacement of a regional three-dimensional electron density matrix, which was previously taken as input to represent the ionosphere, with a global one. Therefore, it is now possible to carry out different ray tracings from whatever point of the Earth’s surface, simply by selecting suitable loop cycles thanks to the new ray tracing graphical user interface (GUI). At the same time, thanks to a homing GUI, it is also possible to generate synthetic oblique ionograms for whatever radio link chosen by the user. Both ray tracing and homing GUIs will be described in detail providing at the same time some practical examples of their use for different regions. IONORT software finds practical application in the planning of HF radio links, exploiting the sky wave, through an accurate and thorough knowledge of the ionospheric medium. HF radio waves users, including broadcasting and civil aviation, would benefit from the use of the IONORT software (version 2023.10).

The group velocity of lightning electromagnetic signals plays an important role in lightning location systems using the time difference of arrival (TDOA) method. Accurate estimation of group velocity is difficult due to the space- and time-varying properties of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Besides, the analytical solution of the group velocity is difficult to obtain from the classic mode theory, especially when higher-order modes, anisotropic geomagnetic background, diffuse ionosphere profile, and propagation path segmentation are all taken into consideration. To overcome these challenges, a novel numerical method is proposed in this paper to estimate the group velocity of the lightning signal during ionospheric quiet periods. The well-known Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) code is used to model the propagation of VLF/LF radio waves. Since LWPC uses a simplified ionospheric model which is unable to describe the subtle variations of ionospheric parameters over time and space, the IRI-2016 model is incorporated into the numerical modeling process to provide more accurate ionosphere parameters. Experimental results of a VLF/LF lightning location network are demonstrated and analyzed to show the effectiveness of our method. The proposed method is also applicable when there is a sudden ionospheric disturbance as long as the parameters of the ionosphere are obtained in real time by remote sensing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new incoherent scatter radar (ISR) has recently been dedicated at Sanya (SYISR), China (geographic 18.34°N and 109.62°E) to detect the low‐latitude ionospheric plasma by conducting continuous operation and electronic beam steering on a pulse‐to‐pulse basis. This paper provides an overview of the processing procedure of SYISR ion line data and presents some preliminary observational results under various transmitting signal schemes and different working modes, such as the zenith‐directed mode and meridional and zonal scanning modes, with comparison to the international reference ionosphere model (IRI‐2016), ionosonde and Ionospheric Connections Explorer (ICON) satellite measurements. The diurnal and altitude versus latitude variation characteristics of electron density (Ne), electron temperature (Te), and ion temperature (Ti) are in accordance with those of other ISR measurements in mid‐low latitudes, and IRI shows some discrepancies with SYISR observations, including the sunrise and sunset enhancement in SYISR_Ti and the overestimated IRI_Te. The comparison between the daytime SYISR_Ti and ICON_Ti shows good consistency based on 31 observational samples. The measurement of line‐of‐sight velocity (Vi) for long pulse can reveal the properties of the medium scale traveling ionospheric disturbances manifesting the radar's potential to study the mesoscale ionospheric variation in the Sanya area. The derived vector velocities with a better measurement accuracy during the day are generally in line with ionospheric plasma physics. The results show that SYISR can obtain continuous ionospheric parameters through multi‐beam scanning measurements at ∼700 km horizontal scale, which provides important information for studying the atmosphere‐ionosphere‐magnetosphere coupling and ionospheric scintillation at low latitudes in East Asia. Plain Language Summary: China's first phased‐array incoherent scatter radar was completed in 2021 in Sanya, which is called SYISR. SYISR aims to investigate fundamental scientific problems in the ionosphere, including atmosphere‐ionosphere‐magnetosphere coupling, regional ionospheric properties and ionospheric irregularities in southern China. SYISR can directly measure electron density, electron and ion temperature, and drift velocity of the ionospheric plasma and can be used to indirectly obtain the temperature of the neutral atmosphere, wind field and irregularity information. This paper describes in detail the data processing from the IQ signal to the derived ionospheric parameters for SYISR. Ionospheric experiments in various scanning modes have been performed, mainly including a single beam in zenith‐directed mode and multiple beams in meridian and zonal scanning modes, and the obtained results are evaluated. These experimental results are evaluated through comparison with the IRI‐2016 model, digital ionosonde and Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite. The comparison results indicate that SYISR is able to provide reliable, unique, and important ionospheric information for the study of ionospheric science at low latitudes in East Asia. Key Points: Sanya incoherent scatter radar (SYISR) is a new phased array system dedicated to the ionospheric observations at low latitudes in Asia sectorSYISR is operational, providing high‐quality ionospheric measurements in multiple radar scanning modes and radio pulse schemes modesData processing procedures and initial ion‐line results using typical experiment modes are reported [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two different approaches of two different time-series models were used to predict the critical frequency (foF2) of the ionospheric F2 layer over Athens (38.0° N, 23.5° E), Greece. Experimental foF2 data were obtained for the Athens station between 2004 and 2018. For the foF2 prediction, the R language forecasthybrid model library time-series convenient functions were used. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE) performance metrics were used to examine the performances of the models. According to these tests, the predictions made with the cross-validation error approach are somewhat better than the equal-weighted-prediction approach. Besides, the predictions of foF2 were compared with those of the IRI-2016 model. According to the RMSE, MAE and MAPE analysis, the values of IRI-2016 model were 1.17 MHz, 1.00 MHz and 29.67%, whereas those of EWP and cross-validation errormodel were 0.40, 0.28 and 5.60 and 0.40, 0.27 and 5.56, respectively. Therefore, it can be said that the predictions of these time-series approaches used for the first time for the prediction of ionospheric foF2 are better than those of the IRI-2016. As a result, time-series algorithms, which are now living in the golden age, offer new opportunities for the prediction of ionospheric parameters as in other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The behavior of the Brazilian equatorial ionosphere during the solar minimum periods, 1996 and 2009, which cover the solar cycles 22/23 and 23/24, respectively, is investigated. For this, the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and peak height (hmF2) registered by a Digisonde operated at São Luis (2.33° S; 44° W) are carefully analyzed. The results show that the seasonal mean values of the foF2 and the hmF2 in the equinoxes and winter during 2009 were lower than in 1996. In the summer, an anomalous response to solar variability was observed. In this case, the hmF2 in 2009 is higher than in 1996 during a specific daytime interval. Besides that, it was verified that the prereversal enhancement of the zonal electric field (PRE) during the equinoxes in 2009 occurred a few minutes earlier than in 1996. Additionally, a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis was used to investigate the impacts of solar atmospheric tides (amplitude, diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal modes) on foF2 and hmF2 parameters with respect to its seasonality. Significant differences were observed between their values during the two minima, mainly in the amplitude of hmF2, which was higher in 1996 than in 2009 for all days analyzed. Moreover, the seasonality in the diurnal and semidiurnal modes for both periods presented an annual variability, while the terdiurnal mode exhibited annual and semiannual components. The results are compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the main differences between the observation and the model results are discussed in this work.

Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) is an important parameter for space weather research. Based on GNSS data from China Crustal Movement Observation Network (CMONOC) and International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, we develop a TEC model in China and adjacent region (15°N − 55°N and 70°E − 140°E) with spatial and temporal resolution of 1°×1° and 30 min. This model is developed by using Kalman filter algorithm. In the covariance matrix, the monthly average is used as the background reference field of the error matrix, and the spatial variation of TEC deviating from the reference background field in each day of the month is statistically analyzed. The assimilative results show that the data assimilation method can effectively combine the observational data with the background model to make up for the temporal and spatial limitations of the observations. In addition, the data assimilation algorithm can produce a short-term TEC forecast. The predicted results are consistent to the observations in the early stages of the forecast. With the increase of predicting time, the impact of the observational data on the predicted results weakens. The results become more biased toward the background data, and the biases can be corrected by observation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The attempt of this work is to evaluate the three options (BSE-1979, AMTB-2013, SHU-2015) embedded in IRI-2016 for the F2 layer peak height (hmF2) estimation under low and high solar flux levels. We compare the model hmF2 with digisonde observations from Qaanaaq, Milllstone Hill, Ramey, Jicamarca and Port Stanley as well as Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) ionospheric radio occultation data over the five stations spanning from northern hemisphere to southern hemisphere. In the case of Millstone Hill, we also use incoherent scatter radar (ISR) measurements. For the comparison with digisonde data, SHU-2015 is the most accurate option for reproducing hmF2 at low and middle latitude stations (Milllstone Hill, Ramey, Jicamarca) with the smallest Root-Mean-Square-Error and the highest correlation with observations. At high latitude (Qaanaaq and Port Stanley), BSE-1979 becomes the best option. This is true for both low and high solar flux conditions. Similar results are obtained for the comparison between ISR and IRI-2016 hmF2 model options over Millstone Hill, where SHU-2015 option has the smallest deviations from the observation data in both low and high solar activity conditions. As for the comparison with COSMIC data, SHU-2015 edges out the other two options under low solar activity level with better performance at three stations. There is no optimal option under high solar activity level, which is to our surprise, cause SHU-2015 was developed based on a large amount of radio occultation data. At Jicamarca, all options show dramatic deviations from COSMIC observations, showing even negative correlations. We propose that the performance of the three options do not vary much with solar condition, while they differ a lot with location, for example, latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents observations of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) and height (hmF2) obtained at Phu Thuy (21.03°N, 105.95°E) and Bac Lieu (9.28°N, 105.73°E) observatories in Vietnam. The data have been examined for all seasons, during high and low solar activities, and compared with the foF2 and hmF2 of the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI-2012, IRI-2016 two options: AMTB, SHU). Phu Thuy observatory is located at the Northern Crest of the EIA and Bac Lieu in the trough of the EIA, therefore the foF2 values at Phu Thuy are higher than at Bac Lieu. The results show that the IRI-2012 model estimates well the observed foF2 at both stations during high and low solar activities. During high solar activity, models estimate well the calculated hmF2 in summer for both stations. At Phu Thuy in equinoxes AMTB reproduces the night peak better than IRI-2012 and SHU, but higher and later about 2–3 h, in winter the performance of AMTB is worst. At Bac Lieu, the IRI-2016 options reproduce the night peak and underestimates it, but IRI-2012 does not do it. The pre-noon peaks are underestimated by all the models, except IRI-2012 which overestimates the hmF2 pre-noon peaks at Bac Lieu. At Phu Thuy the pre-noon hmF2 peak is higher than the post-dusk one. At Bac Lieu the post-dusk peak is higher except in summer. During low solar activity, the IRI models estimate relatively well the shape of the calculated hmF2 at both stations. The IRI-2012 models explained better the observed foF2 (deviation of 2.5%) during solstices than during equinoxes (14.2%) for high solar activity. The IRI-2012 model explained better the observed foF2 in spring (7.8%) than in autumn (19.9%), matched better the calculated hmF2 in solstice (5.4%) than during equinoxes (11.8%). The performance of AMTB is worst at both stations for both the high and low solar activity periods except in autumn at Bac Lieu for the low solar year. IRI-2012 is best at the stations for both high and low solar activity periods, except in summer for the high solar activiy year when SHU is the best at Phu Thuy. These results can be used to improve the future IRI model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temporal and spatial variation of the upper transition height ( H T ) is studied using the measurements of the Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) at Arecibo Observatory (18.35 ° N , 66.75 ° W) , Puerto Rico (magnetic latitude 30 ° N). Observed ion compositions, electron densities, electron and ion temperatures are analysed to understand the diurnal and seasonal variations of H T at low and high solar activity covering solar cycles 23 and 24. The results show that during the low solar activity conditions, the mean H T is very low (around 750 km during the daytime and 500 km at night), while during high solar activity conditions, it reaches about 1600 km. Under very quiet geomagnetic conditions, the mean H T is about 700 km during day time and 500 km during night time. The obtained results are compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predictions using the TBT15 model ion composition option. During low and moderate solar activity conditions, the TBT15 model overestimates about 5–10% at night and 15–20% in the afternoon. Furthermore, from the current investigation using the IRI's TBT15 and DY85 model ion composition options, it is found that the newer TBT15 model option is more appropriate to investigate H T variations as compared to the DY85 model option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The group velocity of lightning electromagnetic signals plays an important role in lightning location systems using the time difference of arrival (TDOA) method. Accurate estimation of group velocity is difficult due to the space- and time-varying properties of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Besides, the analytical solution of the group velocity is difficult to obtain from the classic mode theory, especially when higher-order modes, anisotropic geomagnetic background, diffuse ionosphere profile, and propagation path segmentation are all taken into consideration. To overcome these challenges, a novel numerical method is proposed in this paper to estimate the group velocity of the lightning signal during ionospheric quiet periods. The well-known Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) code is used to model the propagation of VLF/LF radio waves. Since LWPC uses a simplified ionospheric model which is unable to describe the subtle variations of ionospheric parameters over time and space, the IRI-2016 model is incorporated into the numerical modeling process to provide more accurate ionosphere parameters. Experimental results of a VLF/LF lightning location network are demonstrated and analyzed to show the effectiveness of our method. The proposed method is also applicable when there is a sudden ionospheric disturbance as long as the parameters of the ionosphere are obtained in real time by remote sensing methods.

• Comparison of the equatorial anomaly features is carried out according to the Interkosmos-19 and IRI. • Latitudinal, longitudinal and diurnal variations in foF2 for equinox, summer and winter are compared. • IRI model needs a improvement especially in the morning, at midnight, and in Pacific region. The comparison of the IRI model with the foF2 distribution in the equatorial anomaly region obtained by topside sounding onboard the Interkosmos-19 satellite has been carried out. The global distribution of foF2 in terms of LT-maps was constructed by averaging Intercosmos-19 data for summer, winter, and equinox. These maps, in fact, represent an empirical model of the equatorial anomaly for high solar activity F10.7 ~ 200. The comparison is carried out for the latitudinal foF2 profiles in the characteristic longitudinal sectors of 30, 90, 210, 270, and 330°, as well as for the longitudinal variations in foF2 over the equator. The largest difference between the models (up to 60%) for any season was found in the Pacific longitudinal sector of 210°, where there are a few ground-based sounding stations. Considerable discrepancies, however, are sometimes observed in the longitudinal sectors, where there are many ground-based stations, for example, in the European or Indian sector. The discrepancies reach their maximum at 00 LT, since a decay of the equatorial anomaly begins before midnight in the IRI model and after midnight according to the Interkosmos-19 data. The discrepancies are also large in the morning at 06 LT, since in the IRI model, the foF2 growth begins long before sunrise. In the longitudinal variations in foF2 over the equator at noon, according to the satellite data, four harmonics are distinguished in the June solstice and at the equinox, and three harmonics in the December solstice, while in the IRI model only two and one harmonics respectively are revealed. In diurnal variations in foF2 and, accordingly, in the equatorial anomaly intensity, the IRI model does not adequately reproduce even the main, evening extremum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High ‐ precision ionospheric model is of great significance for improving the positioning accuracy of navigation satellite system. With the rapid development of low earth orbit satellites, the establishment of a high ‐ precision ionospheric model has provided new opportunities. Based on the simulation data, this pa‐ per obtains LEO (low earth orbit) and GNSS (global navigation satellite system) satellites observation data of January 1 to 30, 2017 by means of simulation. The constellation types include 60, 96, 192 and 288 satel‐ lites respectively. Based on these data and taking African region as an example, the coverage of GNSS and LEO satellites’ ionospheric pierce points and the joint modeling accuracy are studied. The results show that, after LEO satellites are added, the distribution of ionospheric pierce points is significantly improved, which leads to a noticeable rise of their density. The range of ionospheric pierce points of single low ‐ orbit satellite is larger than that of GNSS satellite, and the altitude angle and azimuth angle of LEO satellite change remarkably. With the increase of the number of low ‐orbit satellites, the accuracy of joint modeling also rises up. Within different latitudes of 30° E at UTC 12: 00, the difference between GNSS ‐ only and GNSS+288 LEO ionospheric modeling results is the largest, reaching -1.6 TECU. With the increase of modeling time, the difference between the joint modeling results and GNSS ‐ only results gradually de‐ creases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about the altitudinal distribution of ionospheric electron density (Ne) in the African equatorial region is very scanty. Such information is vital in modeling of key ionospheric parameters and in solving problems associated with ionospheric effect on the applications that depend on space‐based positioning and navigation systems. For the first time in the region, the entire Ne profile estimated by IRI is evaluated with profile deduced from Digisonde measurements at Ilorin (geog. 8.50°N, 4.50°E; dip. −7.9°) during low solar activity condition. Results obtained indicate marked discrepancies between the two profiles with magnitudes revealing local time and altitudinal and seasonal trends. The largest discrepancies are found between the post‐sunset and sunrise hours regardless of the seasons. IRI underestimates the Ne around the F1 region and is most obvious in September equinox and December solstice with deviation up to −42%. Further, IRI overestimates the Ne around the F2 peak at daytime, mostly in solstices with maximum deviation of 26% at F2 peak. All the three IRI topside models generally underestimate Ne between ~F2 peak height and ~800 km in all seasons except in June solstice. Beyond 800 km, the Digisonde, IRI‐NeQuick, and IRI‐2001 Corr profiles tend to converge, whereas the IRI‐2001 profiles still show marked divergence from the Digisonde profile in all seasons. Overall, the IRI‐NeQuick gives the best topside representation at this station at daytime/nighttime. The comparative analysis of Digisonde‐TEC and GPS‐TEC suggests that the Digisonde alone may not give a reliable estimate of the nighttime topside altitudinal distribution of Ne at this location. Key Points: The largest Digisonde‐IRI Ne profile divergences are found between the post‐sunset and sunrise hours irrespective of the seasonsIRI‐CCIR underestimates the Ne around the F1 altitudes and is most noticeable in September equinox and December solsticeDigisonde‐TEC versus GPS‐TEC suggests that the Digisonde alone may not give a reliable estimate of nighttime topside Ne distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of the plasma irregularity and the related scintillation have been extensively investigated as a result of the impact on radio signal propagation. This study focused on the equatorial spread F (ESF) occurrence using ionogram data and IRI prediction taken across different longitude sectors, including the Jicamarca, Fortaleza, Ilorin, Chumphon and Kwajalein ionosonde stations. We have briefly discussed the varying range type spread F (RSF) occurrence features across these stations such as the duration, onset time and seasonal asymmetry. The largest seasonal average of the RSF occurrence percentage was recorded at the Ilorin station during the low solar activity, while the occurrence rate at the Chumphon and Kwajalein stations increases significantly with the solar flux intensity. Furthermore, we presented a comparative analysis of the observed RSF occurrence rate and the IRI model prediction. The result exhibited a significant error percentage across these longitudes. The IRI could not reproduce significant features such as the delayed RSF onset at the Kwajalein station during June solstice or the equinox asymmetry in the RSF occurrence across these longitudes. Surprisingly, the IRI model also performed poorly at the Brazilian longitude. These observations highlight the strong dynamic nature of the RSF features across the different regions. Hence, an extensive dataset of the RSF occurrence distribution selected with cognizance for the longitudinal pattern of the major factors controlling the phenomenon is considered necessary for the further improvement of the empirical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most significant error of the radio occultation ionospheric retrieval is brought by the spherical symmetric assumption of electron density in Abel inversion. We developed an improved inversion method that attaches additional horizontal constraints based on a background model in Guo et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2014.12.008) and found the effect of the method depends greatly on the accuracy of the background model. In this study, an improved ionospheric model, which applies radio occultation ‐based F2‐layer parameters and an adaptive topside model into the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), is employed as a new choice of background model. The improved inversion is evaluated in several aspects in the middle‐ and low‐latitudinal regions during equinox season (from 19 March to 18 April in 2008 and 2012) and throughout the year. Results show that the artificial plasma caves underneath the equatorial ionization anomaly crests caused by Abel inversion is to some extent eliminated during the daytime, and the negative electron densities in the E layer are also reduced by the improved method. The comparison between Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate events and colocated incoherent scatter radar (ISR)/ionosonde observations indicates comparable accuracy of both methods. Moreover, the Global Ionosphere Maps is introduced as true reference of the vertical total electron density content. The mean vertical total electron density content errors derived through the improved inversion method are less than that of Abel inversion in the global scope. Key Points: The standard Abel retrieval method is assisted by an improved IRI modelThe artificial plasmas peaks and caves brought by Abel retrieval are reduced by the improved approachIndependent data validation proves the positive effect of the improved approach [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, an improved ionospheric model is presented by applying self‐specified F2 layer parameters and an adaptive topside model into the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. Three F2 layer parameters, the critical frequency (foF2), peak height (hmF2), and the scale height (Hsc) obtained from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations, are modeled by spherical harmonics expansion. The empirical orthogonal functions are used to construct the associated parameters in the adaptive topside model. The improved model is validated by incoherent scatter radar (ISR) data of Millstone station and the Global Ionospheric Maps. Results show that the NmF2 and hmF2 of improved model have better agreement with ISR measurements. The vertical total electron content deviation compared with Global Ionospheric Map is discussed in different seasons and levels of solar activity. With radio occultation‐based parameters, the accuracy of original IRI model is improved by 1 total electron content unit globally on average. Key Points: F2 layer parameters foF2, hmF2, and scale height are modeled with COSMIC profilesAn adaptive electron density model is applied to optimize the ionospheric topside functionParameters are introduced into IRI model to improve its electron density estimation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three-dimensional (3-D) electron density matrices, computed in the Mediterranean area by the IRI climatological model and IRIEup and ISP nowcasting models, during some intense and severe geomagnetic-ionospheric storms, were ingested by the ray tracing software tool IONORT, to synthesize quasi-vertical ionograms. IRIEup model was run in different operational modes: (1) assimilating validated autoscaled electron density profiles only from a limited area which, in our case, is the Mediterranean sector ( IRIEup_re(V) mode); (2) assimilating electron density profiles from a larger region including several stations spread across Europe: (a) without taking care of validating the autoscaled data in the assimilation process ( IRIEup(NV) ); (b) validating carefully the autoscaled electron density profiles before their assimilation ( IRIEup(V) ). The comparative analysis was carried out comparing IRI , IRIEup_re(V) , ISP , IRIEup(NV) , and IRIEup(V) fo F2 synthesized values, with corresponding fo F2 measurements autoscaled by ARTIST, and then validated, at the truth sites of Roquetes (40.80°N, 0.50°E, Spain), San Vito (40.60°N, 17.80°E, Italy), Athens (38.00°N, 23.50°E, Greece), and Nicosia, (35.03°N, 33.16°E, Cyprus). The outcomes demonstrate that: (1) IRIEup_re(V) , performs better than ISP in the western Mediterranean (around Roquetes); (2) ISP performs slightly better than IRIEup_re(V) in the central part of Mediterranean (around Athens and San Vito); (3) ISP performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one in the eastern Mediterranean (around Nicosia); (4) IRIEup(NV) performance is worse than the IRIEup(V) one ; (5) in the central Mediterranean area, IRIEup(V) performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one, and it is practically the same for the western and eastern sectors. Concerning the overall performance, nowcasting models proved to be considerably more reliable than the climatological IRI model to represent the ionosphere behaviour during geomagnetic-ionospheric storm conditions; ISP and IRIEup(V) provided the best performance, but neither of them has clearly prevailed over the other one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have compared the TEC obtained from the IRI-2012 model with the GPS derived TEC data recorded within southern crest of the EIA in the Eastern Africa region using the monthly means of the 5 international quiet days for equinoxes and solstices months for the period of 2012 – 2013. GPS-derived TEC data have been obtained from the Africa array and IGS network of ground based dual-frequency GPS receivers from four stations (Kigali (1.95°S, 30.09°E; Geom. Lat. 11.63°S), Malindi (2.99°S, 40.19°E; Geom. Lat. 12.42°S), Mbarara (0.60°S, 30.74°E; Geom. Lat. 10.22°S) and Nairobi (1.22°S, 36.89°E; Geom. Lat. 10.69°S)) located within the EIA crest in this region. All the three options for topside Ne of IRI-2012 model and ABT-2009 for bottomside thickness have been used to compute the IRI TEC. Also URSI coefficients were considered in this study. These results are compared with the TEC estimated from GPS measurements. Correlation Coefficients between the two sets of data, the Root-Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of the IRI-TEC from the GPS-TEC, and the percentage RMSE of the IRI-TEC from the GPS-TEC have been computed. Our general results show that IRI-2012 model with all three options overestimates the GPS-TEC for all seasons and at all stations, and IRI-2001 overestimates GPS-TEC more compared with other options. IRI-Neq and IRI-01-corr are closely matching in most of the time. The observation also shows that, GPS TEC are underestimated by TEC from IRI model during noon hours, especially during equinoctial months. Further, GPS-TEC values and IRI-TEC values using all the three topside Ne options show very good correlation (above 0.8). On the other hand, the TEC using IRI-Neq and IRI-01- corr had smaller deviations from the GPS-TEC compared to the IRI-2001. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the performances of NeQuick2, the latest available IRI-2016, IRI-2012 and IRI-2007 models in describing the monthly and seasonal mean total electron content (TEC) over the East African region. This is to gain insight into the success of the various model types and versions at characterizing the ionosphere within the equatorial ionization anomaly. TEC derived from five Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers installed at Addis Ababa (ADD, 5.33°N, 111.99°E Geog.), Asab (ASAB, 8.67°N, 116.44°E Geog.), Ambo (ABOO, 5.43°N, 111.05°E Geog.), Nairobi (RCMN, −4.48°N, 108.46°E Geog.) and Nazret (NAZR, 4.78°N, 112.43°E Geog.), are compared with the corresponding values computed using those models during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015). We found that different models describe the equatorial and anomaly region ionosphere best depending on solar cycle, season and geomagnetic activity levels. Our results show that IRI-2016 is the best model (compared to others in terms of discrepancy range) in estimating the monthly mean GPS-TEC at NAZR, ADD and RCMN stations except at ADD during 2008 and 2012. It is also found that IRI-2012 is the best model in estimating the monthly mean TEC at ABOO station in 2014. IRI show better agreement with observations during June solstice for all the years studied at ADD except in 2012 where NeQuick2 better performs. At NAZR, NeQuick2 better performs in estimating seasonal mean GPS-TEC during 2011, while IRI models are best during 2008–2009. Both NeQuick2 and IRI models underestimate measured TEC for all the seasons at ADD in 2010 but overestimate at NAZR in 2009 and RCMN in 2008. The periodic variations of experimental and modeled TEC have been compared with solar and geomagnetic indices at ABOO and ASAB in 2014 and results indicate that the F10.7 and sunspot number as indices of solar activity seriously affects the TEC variations with periods of 16–32 days followed by the geomagnetic activity on shorter timescales (roughly periods of less than 16 days). In this case, NeQuick2 derived TEC shows better agreement with a long term period variations of GPS-TEC, while IRI-2016 and IRI-2007 show better agreement with observations during short term periodic variations. This indicates that the dependence of NeQuick2 derived TEC on F10.7 is seasonal. Hence, we suggest that representation of geomagnetic activity indices is required for better performance over the low latitude region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The operational availability of Global Navigation Satellite System is affected by large-scale irregularities of the ionosphere. The space weather events induce several intense irregularities and cause the non-linear distribution of ionospheric electron density. Monitoring of ionospheric responses due to extreme space weather events plays a key role in trans-ionospheric radio wave propagation. In the present analysis, a novel technique based on wavelet transform has been implemented for the analysis and detection of ionospheric anomalies during two intense space weather events that occurred in 2013. The investigations have been carried out using the ionospheric observable, Total Electron Content (TEC), derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver located at an Equatorial Ionisation Anomaly region, KL University, Guntur, India (Geographic Lat.16.37°N, Geographic Long. 80.37°E). The effects of geomagnetic storms (Sym-H ≤ −100 nT) on the perturbations of ionospheric TEC have been investigated. The algorithm of Continuous wavelet transform has been used to study and characterise the presence of ionospheric anomalies in the local time-scale plane. It can detect spatial and temporal details of ionospheric anomaly intensity during strong solar-terrestrial and geophysical events. It is observed that during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm that occurred during 17 March 2013, TEC enhanced by 7 TECU, while a suppression of 10 TECU in the GPS-TEC can be noticed during the main phase of the 29 June 2013 storm. The variation in the intensity of ionospheric TEC anomalies during storm time has been detected and compared to the intensity of the space weather events measured through solar and geomagnetic indices (F10.7, Sym-H, IMF Bz and IEF Ey). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ionospheric electron density peak ( Nm F2) is analyzed for the recent minima of solar activity for two mid-latitude stations, Rome (41.8°N, 12.5°E, geomagnetic latitude 41.7°N, Italy) and Gibilmanna (37.9°N, 14.0°E, geomagnetic latitude 37.6°N, Italy), and for the low-latitude station of Tucumán (26.9°S, 294.6°E, geomagnetic latitude 17.2°S, Argentina), located in the south ridge of the equatorial ionization anomaly. An inter-minima comparison reveals that from an ionospheric point of view the last minimum of solar activity (minimum 23/24) was peculiar, with values of Nm F2 lower than those recorded during the previous minima for all the stations and all the hours of the day. A more pronounced decrease is observed at Tucumán than at Rome and Gibilmanna. The study of the winter and semi-annual anomaly shows that at mid-latitude stations the winter anomaly is not visible only for the years 2008 and 2009, which represent the deeper part of the prolonged and anomalous last solar minimum. The same is for the semi-annual anomaly. A comparison with the version 2012 of the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI) is also carried out. The results reveal that for low solar activity the model works better at mid latitudes than at low latitudes, confirming the problems of IRI in correctly representing the low-latitude ionosphere. Nevertheless, using as input updated values of the solar and geomagnetic indices, no loss of accuracy is detected in the IRI performances for the last solar minimum with respect to the previous ones, both at mid and low latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global Positioning System (GPS) is a remote sensing tool of space weather and ionospheric variations. However, the interplanetary space-dependent drifts in the ionospheric irregularities cause predominant ranging errors in the GPS signals. The dynamic variability of the low-latitude ionosphere is an imperative threat to the satellite-based radio communication and navigation ranging systems. The study of temporal and spatial variations in the ionosphere has triggered new investigations in modelling, nowcasting and forecasting the ionospheric variations. Hence, in this paper, the dynamism in the day-to-day, month-to-month and seasonal variability of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) has been explored during the solar maximum period, January-December 2013, of the 24th solar cycle. The spatial and temporal variations of the ionosphere are analysed using the TEC values derived from three Indian low-latitude GPS stations, namely, Bengaluru, Guntur and Hyderabad, separated by 13–18° in latitude and 77–81° in longitude. The observed regional GPS-TEC variations are compared with the predicted TEC values of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012 and 2007) models. Ionospheric parameters such as Vertical TEC (VTEC), relative TEC deviation index and monthly variations in the grand-mean of ionosphere TEC and TEC intensity, along with the upper and lower quartiles, are adopted to investigate the ionosphere TEC variability during quiet and disturbed days. The maximum ionospheric TEC variability is found during March and September equinoxes, followed by December solstice while the minimum variability is observed during June solstice. IRI models are in reasonable agreement with GPS TEC but are overestimating during dawn hours (01:00–06:00 LT) as compared to the dusk hours. Higher percentage deviations are observed during equinoctial months than summer over EIA stations, Guntur and Hyderabad. GPS TEC variations are overestimated during dawn hours for all the seasons over Bengaluru. It has also been observed that positive storm effect (enhancement of TEC) is observed during the main phase of the March storm, 2013 (March 16–18, 2013) while both positive and negative storm effects (depletion of TEC) are registered during the main phase of the June storm, 2013 (June 28–30, 2013) at Bengaluru and Guntur, respectively. IRI-2012 model has slightly large discrepancies with the GPS-VTEC compared with the IRI-2007 model during the June storm, 2013 over Guntur station. This analysis highlights the importance of upgrading the IRI models due to their discrepancies during quiet and disturbed states of the ionosphere and developing an early warning forecast system to alert about ionosphere variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Point-to-point ray tracing is an important problem in many fields of science. While direct variational methods where some trajectory is transformed to an optimal one are routinely used in calculations of pathways of seismic waves, chemical reactions, diffusion processes, etc., this approach is not widely known in ionospheric point-to-point ray tracing. We apply the Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) method to a radio wave propagation problem. In the NEB method, a chain of points which gives a discrete representation of the radio wave ray is adjusted iteratively to an optimal configuration satisfying the Fermat’s principle, while the endpoints of the trajectory are kept fixed according to the boundary conditions. Transverse displacements define the radio ray trajectory, while springs between the points control their distribution along the ray. The method is applied to a study of point-to-point ionospheric ray tracing, where the propagation medium is obtained with the International Reference Ionosphere model taking into account traveling ionospheric disturbances. A 2-dimensional representation of the optical path functional is developed and used to gain insight into the fundamental difference between high and low rays. We conclude that high and low rays are minima and saddle points of the optical path functional, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the development of Neural Network (NN) model for the prediction of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) at three ionosonde stations near the magnetic equator of Southeast Asia. Two of these stations including Chiang Mai (18.76°N, 98.93°E, dip angle 12.7°N) and Kototabang (0.2°S, 100.3°E, dip angle 10.1°S) are at the conjugate points while Chumphon (10.72°N, 99.37°E, dip angle 3.0°N) station is near the equator. To produce the model, the feed forward network with backpropagation algorithm is applied. The NN is trained with the daily hourly values of foF2 during 2004–2012, except 2009, and the selected input parameters, which affect the foF2 variability, include day number ( DN ), hour number ( HR ), solar zenith angle ( C ), geographic latitude ( θ ), magnetic inclination ( I ), magnetic declination ( D ) and angle of meridian ( M ) relative to the sub-solar point, the 7-day mean of F10.7 (F10.7_7), the 81-day mean of SSN (SSN_81) and the 2-day mean of Ap (Ap_2). The foF2 data of 2009 and 2013 are then used for testing the NN model during the foF2 interpolation and extrapolation, respectively. To examine the performance of the proposed NN, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the observed foF2, the proposed NN model and the IRI-2012 (CCIR and URSI options) model are compared. In general, the results show the same trends in foF2 variation between the models (NN and IRI-2012) and the observations in that they are higher during the day and lower at night. Besides, the results demonstrate that the proposed NN model can predict the foF2 values more closely during daytime than during nighttime as supported by the lower RMSE values during daytime (0.5 ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.0 for Chumphon and Kototabang, 0.7 ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.2 at Chiang Mai) and with the highest levels during nighttime (0.8 ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.5 for Chumphon and Kototabang, 1.2 ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.0 at Chiang Mai). Furthermore, the NN model predicts the foF2 values more accurately than the IRI model at the three sites on average, as clearly seen on the yearly RMSE averages. The RMSE values of NN model are lower than those of both CCIR and URSI options, and in terms of the yearly percentage improvements, the NN model gives improvement of around 10–15% in 2009 and 10% in 2013 for Chiang Mai, 20–25% in 2009 and 5–10% in 2013 for Chumphon, and around 18–25% in 2009 and 20–30% in 2013 at Kototabang. Although the NN model predicts the foF2 values closely to the observed data and produces more accurate prediction than the IRI models, in some cases, the IRI model performs better than the NN model. Hence, there is still room for further improvement of the proposed NN model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper wants to highlight how the availability of measurements autoscaled at some reference ionospheric stations, and their assimilation by ionospheric models, was of crucial importance in determining, during the solar eclipse conditions occurred on 20 March 2015, a reliable representation of the ionosphere. Even though the solar eclipse falls in the recovery phase of the St. Patrick geomagnetic storm started on 17 March 2015, its influence on the ionospheric plasma seems undeniable. The reference ionospheric stations considered here are those of Rome (41°.8’ N, 12°.5’ E), and Gibilmanna (37°.9’ N, 14°.0’ E), Italy. Specifically, in a time interval including that of the eclipse, the electron density profiles autoscaled by the Automatic Real-Time Ionogram Scaler with True-height (ARTIST) system at San Vito (40°.6′ N, 17°.8′ E), Italy, which are here considered as the truth profiles, were compared with both the electron density profiles calculated by the IRI-SIRMUP-Profiles (ISP) model, after assimilating data recorded at Rome and Gibilmanna, and the electron density profiles provided by the IRI-CCIR model. The ISP and IRI-CCIR performances were then evaluated in terms of the root mean square errors made on the whole electron density profiles. The three-dimensional (3-D) electron density mappings of the ionosphere provided by ISP and IRI-CCIR models were also considered as the ionospheric environment by the ray tracing software tool IONORT to calculate quasi-vertical synthesized ionograms over the short radio link San Vito – Brindisi (40°.4′ N, 17°.6′ E), Italy. The corresponding synthesized values of fo F2 and fx F2, obtained by IONORT-ISP and IONORT-(IRI-CCIR) procedures, were compared with those autoscaled by ARTIST from the vertical ionograms recorded at the truth site of San Vito. Some examples of IONORT-ISP and IONORT-(IRI-CCIR) synthesized ionograms are shown and discussed. Finally, comparisons in terms of fo F2 deduced by long-term prediction and nowcasting maps are also shown. The results achieved in this work demonstrate how the assimilation of autoscaled data into the ionospheric models turned out to be valuable in providing a better representation of the ionospheric electron density under very unusual conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, vertical total electron content values derived from an ionospheric empirical model (IRI 2012) are applied to global ionospheric modeling. Firstly, a comparison of VTEC maps between IRI 2012 and IGS GIMs during the year 2014 is investigated. The comparison shows that IRI 2012 is capable of representing the TEC at middle and high latitudes. Furthermore, IRI 2012 is applied to provide priori VTEC values as virtual measurements for global ionospheric modeling during the year 2014. The results show that the new approach not only eliminates the non-physical negative VTEC values but also improves the accuracy of VTEC maps. The VTEC RMS maps are improved by 3.67%, 2.95% and 22.16% in the Northern Band, Middle Band and Southern Band of the global ionosphere, respectively. This work also investigates the consistency between VTEC maps from different solutions, IGS final products and GIMs of Ionosphere Associate Analysis Centers (IAACs). The comparisons suggest that there is a slightly better consistency between the improved VTEC maps and the IGS final products. The consistencies of the VTEC maps are improved by 4.58%, 2.76% and 4.77% in the Northern Band, Middle Band and Southern Band, respectively. The annual mean values of the root mean square (RMS) of the differences between the improved VTEC maps and GIMs of IAACs are approximately 4~6 TECU. The results indicate that the new VTEC maps using the IRI 2012 model have better agreement with the IGS final GIMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing application of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) products and services, knowledge of the Total Electron Content (TEC) variation is vital, particularly in historically under-sampled regions. The ionospheric induced-error, which is the largest and most variable error source of GNSS applications, is proportional to TEC along the satellite-receiver path. Simultaneous Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from six African equatorial and low latitude stations in the southern hemisphere are used to investigate the latitudinal variation of TEC over the region during the year 2013, a year of moderate solar activity. The analysis reveals some detailed features of seasonal, month-to-month and solar activity dependence of TEC. The seasonal variation of TEC revealed that the daytime and the pre-midnight values of TEC for stations located close to the geographic equator is considerably higher in equinoxes and June solstice compared to stations farther from the equator, however, the difference is insignificant during the December solstice. The month-to-month variation of TEC shows semi-annual symmetry/asymmetry in TEC values for stations closer/farther from the equator. TEC sensitivity to solar activity shows significant seasonal and latitudinal characteristics. Generally, a relatively good correlation exists between TEC and F10.7 for stations around the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region compared to those found at stations close to the equator. Beyond the EIA region, the correlation coefficients drop in all seasons. TEC predicted by the three topside options of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2012 model [i.e. the NeQuick (NeQ), IRI-2001 Corrected (IRI-01 Corr) and the IRI-2001 (IRI-01) options] exhibits latitudinal and seasonal characteristics. The NeQ option performed better than the other two options at stations located within the equatorial region in most of the months and seasons. Outside the EIA region, the IRI-01 Corr and IRI-01 options give better predictions. Generally, the three model options give improved TEC representations with increasing latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comparison of ionospheric characteristic parameters obtained by a GPS network and three ionosondes at Mohe (122.4E, 53.5N, dip angle 70.983N), Zuolingzhen (114.6E, 30.5N, dip angle 46.350N), and Fuke (109.1E, 19.5N, dip angle 27.083N) located in China with an IRI model in the year 2011. Observed NmF2 and hmF2 values at the three stations are compared with IRI2007 and IRI2012 predictions, respectively. The results show that there are clear linear correlations between the observed values and the IRI model predicted values. The IRI model gives overestimations at the three stations mostly in 2011. For the NmF2 and hmF2 values, most of the results show that the IRI2012 predicted values are closer to the observed values compared with those of IRI2007. Additionally, the GPS TEC values derived from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are compared with the IRI2012 predictions. From the results, it is evident that the IRI2012 model predictions follow the normal trend of diurnal variation of GPS measured TEC monthly means but do not reproduce the measured data well. The IRI2012 model overestimates electron density in the latter part of spring as well as the first half of autumn and winter and underestimates electron density in early spring and the latter part of autumn. Referring to GPS TEC, the precision of the IRI2012 model predicted TEC values is ∼5 TECU over China. It may also be noted that there are two discontinuities of IRI-TEC monthly means appearing in November and December of the year 2011. This brings a bias of ∼3 TECU of TEC values between two adjacent months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preliminary Swarm Langmuir probe measurements recorded during March 2015, a period of time including the St. Patrick storm, are considered. Specifically, six time periods are identified: two quiet periods before the onset of the storm, two periods including the main phase of the storm, and two periods during the recovery phase of the storm. Swarm electron density values are then compared with the corresponding output given by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, according to its three different options for modelling the topside ionosphere. Since the Swarm electron density measurements are still undergoing a thorough validation, a comparison with IRI in terms of absolute values would have not been appropriate. Hence, the similarity of trends embedded in the Swarm and IRI time series is investigated in terms of Pearson correlation coefficient. The analysis shows that the electron density representations made by Swarm and IRI are different for both quiet and disturbed periods, independently of the chosen topside model option. Main differences between trends modelled by IRI and those observed by Swarm emerge, especially at equatorial latitudes, and at northern high latitudes, during the main and recovery phases of the storm. Moreover, very low values of electron density, even lower than 2 × 10 cm, were simultaneously recorded in the evening sector by Swarm satellites at equatorial latitudes during quiet periods, and at magnetic latitudes of about ±60° during disturbed periods. The obtained results are an example of the capability of Swarm data to generate an additional valuable dataset to properly model the topside ionosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In situ electron density profiles obtained from equatorial stations in Brazil using conventional Langmuir probes and High Frequency Capacitance probes are compared with IRI predictions in the light of the spectral distribution of the plasma density irregularities observed. Plasma instability mechanisms, especially Rayleigh-Taylor and Cross-Field instability mechanisms responsible for the generation of observed plasma irregularities, are used to estimate the growth time and the minimum scale size of irregularities at different height regions along the electron density profile. Simple polynomial approximations are used to represent the observed electron density profiles. A comparative study of the observed plasma irregularities with those expected from theory can give information on the reliability of the observed profiles. This reliability estimate is important because the techniques used for the measurement of electron density are known to be associated with some problems. Thus one can see whether the deviations of the observed electron density profiles from IRI predictions are genuine, and what are the physical parameters responsible for the observed deviations in the profiles. Some improvements in the methods used for IRI predictions in low latitudes are suggested.

The present study investigates the variation of Total Electron Content (TEC) using Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites from four equatorial to mid-latitudes stations over a period of one year. The stations are Port Blair (11.63°N, 92.70°E), Agartala (23.75°N, 91.25°E), Lhasa (29.65°N, 91.10°E) and Urumqi (43.46°N, 87.16°E). The diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations of TEC have been explored to study its latitudinal characteristics. Analysis of TEC data from these stations reveals the characteristics of latitudinal variation of Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA). To validate the latest IRI 2012 model, the monthly and seasonal variations of GPS-TEC at all the four stations have been compared with the model for three different topside options of electron density, namely, NeQuick, IRI-01-corr and IRI-2001. TEC predictions from IRI-2001 top side electron density option using IRI 2012 model overestimates the observed TEC especially at the low latitudes. TEC from IRI- NeQuick and IRI-01-corr options shows a tendency to underestimate the observed TEC during the day time particularly in low latitude region in the high solar activity period. The agreement between the model and observed values are reasonable in mid latitude regions. However, a discrepancy between IRI 2012 derived TEC with the ground based observations at low latitude regions is found. The discrepancy appears to be higher in low-latitude regions in comparison to mid latitude regions. It is concluded that largest discrepancy in TEC occur as a result of poor estimation of the hmF2 and foF2 from the coefficients.

This paper analyses the geomagnetic storm on September 26–29, 2011. We compare the calculation results obtained using the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) and IRI-2012 (Bilitza et al., 2014) model with ground-based ionosonde data of stations at different latitudes and longitudes. We examined physical mechanisms responsible for the formation of ionospheric effects during the main phase of geomagnetic storm that occurred at the rising phase of the 24th solar cycle. We used numerical results obtained from IRI-2012 and GSM TIP models as propagation environment for HF signals from an equatorial transmitter during quiet and disturbed conditions. We used the model of HF radio wave propagation developed in I. Kant Baltic Federal University (BFU) that is based on the geometrical optics approximation. We compared the obtained radio paths in quiet conditions and during the main and recovery storm phases and evaluated radio wave attenuation in different media models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the probability of equatorial spread-F (ESF) occurrence at the conjugate stations in Southeast Asia: Chiangmai station (CMU), Thailand, and Kototabang station (KTB), Indonesia, and near the magnetic equator, Chumphon station (CPN), Thailand, is presented. We analyze the ionogram data recorded by the Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FM/CW) ionosondes for the periods of minimum solar activity from September 2008 to April 2009 and in the equinoctial months (March and April) from 2006 to 2013. The spread-F signatures are manually categorized into three types: the frequency spread-F (FSF), the range spread-F (RSF) and the mixed spread-F (MSF) and the monthly average percentage of the occurrence of each ESF type is presented. The results show that the percentage of RSF occurrence at CPN, which is located around the magnetic equator, is higher than at other stations and the RSF mostly occurs during the equinoctial months. On the other hand, the FSF occurrence at CMU and KTB, that are located in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, are higher than at CPN. The RSF occurrence typically has the peaks before midnight, while the maximum occurrence rate of FSF is after midnight. Furthermore, the RSF onsets normally precede the FSF onsets by about 1–2 h. As the solar activity levels go up, the percentages of RSF occurrence increase, but the percentages of FSF tends to decrease. In addition, we compare the statistics of observed RSF occurrence with the prediction of the IRI-2012 model. The results show that the IRI model overestimates the observed RSF occurrence at all stations during most of the solar activity levels and seasons, except in June 2008 (21:00–03:00 LT), March 2011 (23:30–01:00 LT) and March 2013 (01:00–02:30 LT) when the IRI model underestimates our observations. However, the IRI model gives closer probability of RSF occurrence to our observed values at CPN, especially in equinoctial months and during the periods of medium solar activity. This work is important for an improvement of the IRI model in the prediction of the spread F occurrence probability in the low-latitude region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]