Search

International audience; The war in Ukraine is shaking up the European energy scene and its dependence on Russia. This article analyzes the stakes and challenges for Europe of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the gas market. It first highlights the evolution and extent of the dependence of European economies on Russian gas and discusses the economic impacts that have been evident since the beginning of the hostilities. It then describes the various responses implemented in Europe to emancipate itself from this dependence. Finally, it discusses some of the blind spots in European decisions and outlines various ways to overcome them.; La guerre en Ukraine bouleverse la scène énergétique européenne et sa relation de dépendance à la Russie. Cet article analyse les enjeux et les défis, pour l’Europe, du conflit russo-ukrainien sur le marché gazier. Il met d’abord en évidence l’évolution et l’ampleur de la dépendance des économies européennes au gaz russe et en discute les impacts économiques qui se sont manifestés dès le début des hostilités. Il décrit ensuite les différentes réponses mises en œuvre en Europe pour s’émanciper de cette dépendance. Enfin, il discute quelques angles morts des décisions européennes et esquisse diverses pistes pour les dépasser.

International audience; Because most food processes are fossil fuel-based, many food markets are more or less connected to the oil market. Fishing technology in the high seas being energy-intensive, higher oil prices should affect the fish markets. This research looks at price transmission between Marine Diesel Oil and a global fishery commodity, frozen Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) through a time series analysis combining four different methods to look for possible structural breaks and regime shifts in the relationship (Bai-Perron, Lavielle, Gregory-Hansen, Markov-switching). Our results prove that the long-run equilibrium between both prices is weakening after the turn of the 2010s. Explaining the drivers of change is of great interest for short-term forecast but also to build long-term scenarios where both supply and demand variables are likely to affect tuna markets.; Puisque la plupart des filières agro-alimentaires reposent sur des énergies fossiles, de nombreux marchés alimentaires sont plus ou moins connectés au marché du pétrole. La technologie des pêcheries hauturières étant elle-même intensive en énergie, un prix plus élevé du pétrole devrait se refléter dans le prix du poisson. Cette recherche s'intéresse à la transmission des prix entre le diesel marin et un produit de la pêche global, le listao (Katsuwonus pelamis) congelé, via une analyse de séries temporelles croisant quatre méthodes différentes pour repérer des changements structurels et de régime dans la relation de prix (Bai-Perron, Lavielle, Gregory-Hansen, Markov-switching). Nos résultats montrent que l'équilibre de long terme s'atténue au tournant des années 2010. Expliquer les facteurs de ce changement représente certes un enjeu important pour des prévisions de court-terme, mais permet également de bâtir des scénarios de long-terme où les variables d'offre et de demande sont susceptibles de perturber conjointement les marchés thoniers.

International audience; The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the next day’s consumption of natural gas can be accurately forecast using a simple model that solely incorporates the information contained in dayahead market data. Hence, unlike standard models that use a number of meteorological variables, we only consider two predictors: the price of natural gas and the spark ratio measuring the relative price of electricity to gas. We develop a suitable modeling approach that captures the essential features of daily gas consumption and in particular the nonlinearities resulting from power dispatching. We use the case of France as an application as this is, as far as is known, the very first attempt to model and predict the country’s daily gas demand. Our results document the existence of a long-run relation between demand and spot prices and provide estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities. We also provide evidence of the pivotal role of the spark ratio which is found to have an asymmetric and highly nonlinear impact on demand variations. Lastly, we show that our simple model is sufficient to generate predictions that are considerably more accurate than the forecasts published by infrastructure operators.

International audience; Water scarcity problem has become a major constraint in energy development. In this paper, we calculated virtual water flows and virtual water scarcity risk transfers driven by interprovincial energy consumption in China using multi-regional input–output analysis. The results of virtual water scarcity risk transfers show that major virtual water scarcity risk importers will be the “victims” suffering the consequences of increasing virtual water scarcity risks in the national energy system. For major virtual water scarcity risk exporters, they will transfer virtual water scarcity risks to downstream provinces along energy supply chains, threatening the stability of the national energy system. The promotion of energy policies and the energy consumption of developed regions make the water-deficient northwest regions export a large amount of water resources to the east and south regions. Therefore, it is necessary to fully consider local water scarcity and evaluate the impact on water environment before the construction of energy bases. Our findings can be used to provide a reference value for policymakers to develop new energy strategies and manage water resources sustainably.

We build a frontier function model with technical and cost efficiency measures to assess the impact of energy costs on competitiveness in the aluminum industry, a heavy energy consumer, by identifying what may be attributed to price and quantity effects. First, we estimate a data envelopment analysis model and measure the efficiency scores using the Farrell and Tone approaches. Then, we explain efficiency scores with a set of environmental factors using a truncated regression model, applying the double-bootstrap method proposed by Simar and Wilson in 2007. By considering the Tone efficiency scores, we highlight the fact that efficiencies are differentiated depending on geographic region and production technologies. This could explain the loss of competitiveness observed in certain industrial units in recent years. We also highlight other factors that impact cost efficiency, such as global market share, multinational status and the exchange rate with respect to the dollar. These factors have a significant, positive effect on relative efficiency in terms of aluminum smelter costs. Our results provide a better understanding of the reasons for the changes in this industry, which has been marked by major technological and economic shifts, and allow us to assess the role of energy in these changes.

International audience; This paper discusses cooperation applied to a platoon of electric vehicles using an Eco-Driving Optimal Controller (EDOC). The proposed algorithm is evaluated in terms of energy efficiency and string compactness in comparison with the non-cooperative EDOC and standard adaptive cruise control using a drive cycle based scenario. A theoretical analysis of string stability with and without cooperation is presented. The simulation results show that a platoon with cooperative EDOC performs better in terms of energy efficiency and string compactness than without cooperation.

International audience; The lack of precise mathematical model of nonlinear systems, such as electric machines, brings certain limits to design a powerful controller for such systems. This article presents a model-free-adaptive-control (MFAC) scheme as a good alternative to the commonly used model-based-control (MBC) methods in order to improve the controller design limitations due to the need for system model information. In this regard, an MFAC is developed in this article for current control of a wound rotor synchronous machine (WRSM) drive system and compared with a proportional-integral (PI) controller as a well-known model-based controller. Since the controller performance can be affected by unexpected phenomena, such as model errors, parameter variations, and changes in operating point, beforehand, the robustness of developed MFAC is first tested under the mentioned conditions in the simulation area. Then, through experimental validation on a specifically designed test bench, a satisfactory performance was obtained for the MFAC scheme.

International audience; Using the gross world product (GWP) as the only exogenous input variable, we design a model able to accurately reproduce the global population dynamics over the period 1950-2015. For any future increasing GWP scenarios, our model yields very similar population trajectories. The major implication of this result is that both the United Nations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assume future decoupling possibilities between economic development and fertility that have never been witnessed during the last sixty-five years. In case of an abrupt collapse of the economic production, our model responds with higher death rates that are more than offset by increasing birth rates, leading to a relatively larger and younger population. Finally, we add to our model an excess mortality function associated with climate change. Estimates of additional climate-related deaths for 2095-2100 range from 1 million in a +2 • C scenario to 6 million in a +4 • C scenario.

The topic of climate change has aroused increasingly widespread concern around the world. Under the agreement at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), covened in Paris, France (Paris Agreement), which requires all Parties to undertake emission reductions, the developing countries who were once exempted from emission reduction obligations are now becoming more and more important. This study focuses on mitigation actions in China, the largest carbon emitter, as well as the largest developing country in the world. Specifically, we examine Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) projects. The objective is to compare the reduction efficiency of three types of projects: simple abatement and completely renewable energy alternative projects at the supply side and demand side projects. From market-induced carbon leakage point of view, a dual market equilibrium model was built, with results showing that the key factors affecting the leakage rates are price elasticities of both demand and supply sides and market share parameters. In most cases, renewable energy alternative projects show the least leakage rate while demand side projects show the highest. Sensitivity analysis finds that leakage rates for the three types of projects are more sensitive to price elasticity parameters than market share parameters. Moreover, factors $$ {E}_c^{de} $$ (electricity price elasticity of coal demand from coal-fired generation) and $$ {E}_e^d $$ (electricity price elasticity of electricity demand) affect not only the leakage rate of each project but also the comparative results between them. Although our study is based on China, the theoretical analysis is applicable in other regional voluntary emission reduction markets around the world. So, a systematic approach to comprehensively analyze the issue is summarized, based on which, we recommend two mitigation strategies to cope with the issue in offset projects in order to give managerial insights for the government. Firstly, the calculated leakage rates for different types of projects provide a new perspective to evaluate various offset projects, thus helping consider project types for priority validation. Secondly, we suggest to establish an accurate and classified discount coefficient system according to the project types to deal with the issue; the sensitivity analysis is helpful to find the most influential factors. A top-down approach to implement the strategy is proposed.

The rapidly increasing participation of renewable energies (REn) into the electric mix, clearly traces the trends for the decarbonization goals in the European Union. Under the priority sale conditions established by governments, the commercialization of REn plays an important role in the consolidation of market prices, which are on a decreasing trend with large fluctuations that reduce the profit in the power sector and therefore, the interest of potential investors. The incorporation of small power capacities, available with a considerable fleet of electric vehicles (EV) disposed to support the bulk power system through an intelligent, and possibly bidirectional recharging system (the vehicle grid integration VGI), could havea positive impact on the electricity market as well as in CO2 emissions. In this context, our purpose is to simulate the impact of a large development of EV on the electricity market andthe economic surplus of the power sector. Through a VGI tool that includes an algorithm of smart charging, we simulate the behavior of a fleet composed by some millions of EV as follows: a decentralized VGI algorithm of smart charging included in each EV estimates the energy consumption in time of the EV fleet. For a specific number of EV, we simulate the aggregated charge on the power grid, and anticipate the total expected load curve for one day. We use the estimated load curve as input in an electricity market model for calculating the producer’s surplus over one year. We show that the increasing EV fleet significantly decreases the fluctuation of the residual electricity demand as well as the electricity price. Consequently, this has a positive impact on the surplus of the sector.

International audience; Cet ouvrage, aux nombreuses illustrations, donne une vision transversale des changements environnementaux d'échelle mondiale que connaît notre planète aux limites finies. Son objectif est, en particulier, de faire comprendre les mécanismes et conséquences du réchauffement climatique et de l'érosion de la biodiversité ainsi que leurs relations avec nos modes de vie et de consommation. Pour l'essentiel, il reprend l'un des premiers enseignements numériques délivrés à grande échelle en 2020 sur les « Enjeux de la transition écologique » auprès de plusieurs milliers d'étudiants de licence de toutes disciplines de l'Université Paris-Saclay. À l'instar de ce cours, cet ouvrage s'articule en quatre parties. Partant d'une perspective historique des évolutions du climat et de la biodiversité, les trois premières parties annoncent l'impact croissant de l'humanité sur les flux d'énergie et de matière de la planète et sur les trajectoires évolutives du vivant. Cet impact conditionne en retour la survie de nos sociétés et du monde tel que nous le savons. La quatrième et dernière partie de cet ouvrage offre un cadre de réflexions pour une transition vers un développement soutenable. Cette transition peut être une opportunité pour rembourser nos façons de produire, de travailler, de consommer, de nous déplacer, tout en visant l'équité sociale pour un « bien vivre ensemble » partagé sur la planète. Pour répondre à l'objectif de transversalité de l'ouvrage, plus de quarante enseignant(e)s-chercheurs(s) et chercheurs(euses) d'horizons différents y ont contribué, mêlant les savoirs des sciences de la nature aux sciences humaines et sociales en passant par le droit, l'économie, la gestion, l'agronomie et la médecine.

International audience; Cet ouvrage, aux nombreuses illustrations, donne une vision transversale des changements environnementaux d'échelle mondiale que connaît notre planète aux limites finies. Son objectif est, en particulier, de faire comprendre les mécanismes et conséquences du réchauffement climatique et de l'érosion de la biodiversité ainsi que leurs relations avec nos modes de vie et de consommation. Pour l'essentiel, il reprend l'un des premiers enseignements numériques délivrés à grande échelle en 2020 sur les « Enjeux de la transition écologique » auprès de plusieurs milliers d'étudiants de licence de toutes disciplines de l'Université Paris-Saclay. À l'instar de ce cours, cet ouvrage s'articule en quatre parties. Partant d'une perspective historique des évolutions du climat et de la biodiversité, les trois premières parties annoncent l'impact croissant de l'humanité sur les flux d'énergie et de matière de la planète et sur les trajectoires évolutives du vivant. Cet impact conditionne en retour la survie de nos sociétés et du monde tel que nous le savons. La quatrième et dernière partie de cet ouvrage offre un cadre de réflexions pour une transition vers un développement soutenable. Cette transition peut être une opportunité pour rembourser nos façons de produire, de travailler, de consommer, de nous déplacer, tout en visant l'équité sociale pour un « bien vivre ensemble » partagé sur la planète. Pour répondre à l'objectif de transversalité de l'ouvrage, plus de quarante enseignant(e)s-chercheurs(s) et chercheurs(euses) d'horizons différents y ont contribué, mêlant les savoirs des sciences de la nature aux sciences humaines et sociales en passant par le droit, l'économie, la gestion, l'agronomie et la médecine.

International audience

Few wells targeting high temperature, high pressure intervals in most tertiary sedimentary basins have achieved their objective in terms of technicalities and cost. Since most shallow targets have been drilled, exploration focus is drifting into deeper plays both onshore and in deep offshore areas. To ensure safe and economic drilling campaigns, pore pressure prediction methodologies used in the region needs to be improved. The research aims at generating and testing a modification of Eaton’s equation fit for high temperature, high pressure intervals on a field. The evolution of pore pressure in the field was established from offset well data by making several crossplots, and fracture gradient was computed using Mathew and Kelly’s equation. Eaton’s equation parameters were then calibrated using several wells until a desired field scale result was achieved when compared with information from already drilled intervals i.e., kicks and RFT data. Seismic velocity data resulting from high density, high resolution velocity analysis done to target deep overpressured intervals were then used to predict 1D pore pressure models at six selected prospect locations. Analyses reveal depths shallower than 3800 m TVD/MSL with geothermal gradient 3.0 °C/100 m and pressure gradient less than 1.50sg EMW are affected mainly by undercompaction; depths greater than 3800 m TVD/MSL with geothermal gradient of 4.1 °C/10 m and pressure gradients reaching 1.82–2.12sg EMW are affected by unloading with a narrow drilling margin for the deep highly pressured prospect intervals. Eaton’s n-exponent was modified to 6, and it proved accurate in predicting high overpressure in the first prospect wells drilled.

International audience; The Mozambique and Madagascar margins present major rivers that are responsible for the discharge of large amounts of terrestrial organic matter (OM) which can influence carbon cycling in marine environments. Therefore, the Mozambique channel represents a unique case to study the fate of the organic carbon in deepwater domains. Using a new and extensive data set of sedimentary OM collected from sediment traps, seafloor sediments and core sediments, we address the origin of the OM that is transported and deposited in the Mozambique Channel, its degradation state and preservation conditions. A Rock-Eval 6 survey allowed us to characterize the origin and amount of OM from shallow to deep-water turbidite systems, between 500 and 4400 m water depth. Rock-Eval 6 performed on suspended sediments within particle traps at 47 m above the seabed show that the OM is transported into the deep-water domain with relatively high TOC (between 1.5 and 2.5%). However, the OM is largely oxidized close to the water-sediment interface (Oxygen Index >300 mg CO 2 /g TOC). Seafloor sediments sampled to a maximum depth of 40 cm show lower TOC values compared to those collected from particle traps suggesting that the degradation of the OM is mainly active at the water-sediment interface. Small concentrations of OM are preserved within the recent sediments of the distal area of the Zambezi turbidite system below 2500 m water depth (TOC < 0.5%). Rock-Eval results show that core sediments from the Majunga slope (NW margin of Madagascar) and the Zambezi slope (Mozambique margin) contain the highest concentration of terrestrial OM (TOC between 1 and 2%). However, the OM within core sediments from the deep-water domain is largely oxidized and degraded, probably due to the conjugate effect of low sediment accumulation rates (SARs) and high permeabilities of the coarse-grained sediments. Consequently, the deep-water domain of the Mozambique Channel does not seem to be an important sink of terrestrial OM. This process is reinforced by important bottom water currents which induce the remobilization and transport of seafloor sediments that lead to higher oxygen exposure time in the uppermost centimeters of sediments.

To reduce traffic congestion and protect the environment, license plate control (LPC) policy has beenimplemented in Beijing since 2011. In 2019, 100,000 vehicle license plates were distributed, including60,000 for electric vehicle (EV) and 40,000 for gasoline vehicle (GV). However, whether the currentlicense plate allocation is optimal from a social welfare maximization perspective remains unclear. This paper proposes a two-level Stackelberg game which portrays the interaction between vehicle applicants and the government to quantify the optimal EV license plates under the LPC policy in Beijing. The equilibrium number of EV license plates derived from the Stackelberg model is 58,800, which could increase the social welfare by 0.38%. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate the impact of important influential factors — total license plate quota, vehicle rental fee, and energy price — on EV adoption. The LPC policy under COVID-19 is also studied through a scenario analysis. If thegovernment additionally increases the total quota by 20,000, 24% could be allocated to GV and 76% to EV. One third reduction of the current vehicle rental fee could increase EV license plates by 10.5%. Interms of energy prices, when gasoline price is low, reducing electricity price could contribute to EVadoption significantly, while that effect tapers off as the gasoline price rises.

This paper examines the price discovery of three international crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent, INE) before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 with the application of information share and component share model. Our study shows that there is a structural break of the date of 6th of March,2020 in each price series with Zivot and Andrew’s unit root test. Using Gregory and Hansen cointegration tests, cointegration relationships with structural break in May,2020 are detected. According to results of IS and CS model of Yan and Zviot (2010), Brent futures price mainly plays a leading role of WTI and INE futures price and occupies an absolute dominant position all the time in the three crude oil futures markets systems. In the post-covid period, the price discovery efficiency of INE has been improved slightly but is still weak compared with other two markets. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the dominant position in price contribution in the relationship with INE has transferred from Brent to WTI. These findings offer practical implications for regulators and portfolio risk managers during the unprecedented uncertainty period provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic.

International audience; Sensorless control theory is considered as one of the most important keys to reduce the cost of manufacturing and maintenance in automotive applications. This article presents a current sensorless control algorithm of a wound rotor synchronous machine using a model-free-adaptive control (MFAC). The only controlled variable in this method is the rotor speed, and no observation or estimation will be performed on the phase currents. The presented controller is also compared with a current sensorless control method that uses a Lyapunov-based observation of phase currents in the control algorithm. The developed control algorithm is first tested in simulation under several operating conditions, such as starting, tracking, parameter variation, and load step. Then, experimental tests validated the effective performance of MFAC in a current sensorless control algorithm. According to these results, the control of phase currents is guaranteed with a small error but without using any current sensors.

International audience; Many challenges facing the current and the future governments of Iraq, and one of these challenges is the situation of the power sector in the country. This study is about finding economic optimization scenarios for Iraq power mix, as the countryis in dire need to minimize its power generation costs and finding the ultimate power mix structure that can help in developing the country for the better. Mean Variance Approach (MVA) is used to optimize the national power mix. Itconsiders various costs that are involved in the power generation and the associated risks of using a particular power generation technology. The three main generation power technologies that were taken into account are gasturbines, thermal a nd diesel power stations in addition to the electricity imported and the generated electricity by the independent power producers (IPPs). The study proposes an optimization scenario balancing between the involved costs andrisks associated with the power mix. The optimal scenario is to use around 47% gas turbines, 14% thermal, 0.04% diesel, 2% hydro and 33% IPPs.

International audience; The majority of global energy scenarios anticipate a structural break in the relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP), with several scenarios projecting absolute decoupling, where energy use falls while GDP continues to grow. However, there are few precedents for absolute decoupling, and current global trends are in the opposite direction. This paper explores one possible explanation for the historical close relationship between energy consumption and GDP, namely that the economy-wide rebound effects from improved energy efficiency are larger than is commonly assumed. We review the evidence on the size of economy-wide rebound effects and explore whether and how such effects are taken into account within the models used to produce global energy scenarios. We find the evidence base to be growing in size and quality, but remarkably diverse in terms of the methodologies employed, assumptions used, and rebound mechanisms included. Despite this diversity, the results are broadly consistent and suggest that economy-wide rebound effects may erode more than half of the expected energy savings from improved energy efficiency. We also find that many of the mechanisms driving rebound effects are overlooked by integrated assessment and global energy models. We therefore conclude that global energy scenarios may underestimate the future rate of growth of global energy demand.

This paper gives an overview of several models applied to forecast the day-ahead prices of the German electricity market between 2014 and 2015 using hourly wind and solar productions as well as load. Four econometric models were built: SARIMA, SARIMAX, Holt-Winters and Monte Carlo Markov Chain Switching Regimes. Two machine learning approaches were also studied: a Gaussian mixture classification coupled with a random forest and finally, an LSTM algorithm. The bestperformances were obtained using the SARIMAX and LSTM models. The SARIMAX model makes good predictions and has the advantage through its explanatory variables to better capture the price volatility. The addition of other explanatory variables could improve the prediction of the models presented. The RF exhibits good results and allows to build a confidence interval. The LSTM model provides excellent results, but the precise understanding of the functioning of this model is much more complex.

International audience; In the context of automated highway systems (AHS), this work proposes an approach that enables a vehicle to autonomously join a platoon with optimized trajectory in the presence of dynamical traffic obstacles. A notable aspect is the use of Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization of the planned path, in conjunction with a variant of the Rapidly-exploring Random Trees (RRT*) algorithm for the purpose of platoon formation. This combination efficiently explores the space of possible trajectories, returning trajectories that are smoothened out with respect to the dynamic constraints of the vehicle, while at the same time allowing for real-time implementation. The implementation we propose takes into consideration both localization and mapping through relevant sensors and V2V communication. The complete algorithm is tested over various nominal and worst-case scenarios, qualifying the merits of the proposed methodology.

International audience; This study focuses on the respective role of (1) the occurrence and the nature of evaporitic layers and (2) the fluid pressure conditions on the decollement processes and the structure of the foreland fold and thrust belt of the Western Alps. The decollement in the Jura Mountains is predominantly localized in halite-bearing layers. Anhydrite-bearing units which are not associated to halite are not hosting major decollement. The shift of decollement level between Mid-Triassic halite unit and Upper Triassic halite unit has induced local tectonic subtractions and, elsewhere, tectonic duplications at depth. Available fluid pressure measurements show that fluids are not overpressured in the Jura. Even below the salt decollement, they remain in hydrostatic conditions. South of the Jura, the absence of halite is correlated with no efficient role of the Triassic layers in terms of decollement. The available pressure measurements show that the decollement is associated with high overpressure. Because of the low friction of halite, the Jura thrust wedge shows a narrow angle (3°–4°). The relatively high friction behavior of the decollement south of the Jura is responsible for stacks of tectonic units associated with a relatively wide angle of the tectonic wedge (12°–13°). The structural change between the Chartreuse and Vercors massifs is not controlled by the properties of the decollement but by the change of thickness of the sedimentary pile involved in the tectonic wedge. The change of thickness is controlled by paleogeographic heritage during Jurassic and Cretaceous times.

This paper proposes an assessment of long-term climate strategies for oil- and gas-producing countries—in particular, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states—as regards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase of surface air temperature to 2°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The study evaluates the possible role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies under an international emissions trading market as a way to mitigate welfare losses. To model the strategic context, one assumes that a global cumulative emissions budget will have been allocated among different coalitions of countries—the GCC being one of them—and the existence of an international emissions trading market. A meta-game model is proposed in which deployment of CDR technologies as well as supply of emission rights are strategic variables and the payoffs are obtained from simulations of a general equilibrium model. The results of the simulations indicate that oil and gas producing countries and especially the GCC countries face a significant welfare loss risk, due to “unburnable oil” if a worldwide climate regime as recommended by the Paris Agreement is put in place. The development of CDR technologies, in particular direct air capture (DAC) alleviates somewhat this risk and offers these countries a new opportunity for exploiting their gas reserves and the carbon storage capacity offered by depleted oil and gas reservoirs. This paper was made possible by NPRP grant number 10-0212-170447 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). The first author acknowledges support provided by FONDECYT 1190325 and by ANILLO ACT192094, Chile. The fourth author also received support provided by the IFP School Chair on Carbon Management (CARMA). The last author also received support provided by the H2020 European Commission Project “PARIS REINFORCE” under grant agreement no. 820846.

Dans notre Point de Vue publié au printemps 2020 (« Certificats : marier reprise économique et transition écologique »), nous nous étions attachés à montrer tout l’intérêt du mécanisme de certificats. Depuis, les travaux sur la forme que devra prendre la 5ème période de CEE ont continué, suscitant bien des débats, et aboutissant à une première série de propositions rendue publique début février 2021. Cette première série de propositions est l’occasion pour nous de continuer notre analyse, en regardant notamment si l’esprit de celle-ci va ou non dans le sens de la logique « couplage reprise / transition » qui nous paraissait intéressante au printemps dernier.

As large scale penetration of renewables into electric systems requires increasing flexibility from dispatchable production units, the electricity mix must be designed in order to address brutal variations of residual demand. Inspired from the philosophy of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), we propose a trajectory ambiguity set including residual demand trajectories verifying both support and variability criterion using ambiguous quantile information. We derive level-maximizing, level-minimizing and variability-maximizing residual demand trajectories using two algorithms based on forward-backward path computation. This set of limiting trajectories allows us to make investment decisions robust to extreme levels and brutal variations of residual demand. We provide a numerical experiment using a MILP (Mixed-Integer Linear Programming) investment and unit commitment model in the case of France and discuss the results.

As large scale penetration of renewables into electric systems requires increasing flexibility from dispatchable production units, the electricity mix must be designed in order to address brutal variations of residual demand. Inspired from the philosophy of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), we propose a trajectory ambiguity set including residual demand trajectories verifying both support and variability criterion using ambiguous quantile information. We derive level-maximizing, level-minimizing and variability-maximizing residual demand trajectories using two algorithms based on forward-backward path computation. This set of limiting trajectories allows us to make investment decisions robust to extreme levels and brutal variations of residual demand. We provide a numerical experiment using a MILP (Mixed-Integer Linear Programming) investment and unit commitment model in the case of France and discuss the results.

Dans notre Point de Vue publié au printemps 2020 (« Certificats : marier reprise économique et transition écologique »), nous nous étions attachés à montrer tout l’intérêt du mécanisme de certificats. Depuis, les travaux sur la forme que devra prendre la 5ème période de CEE ont continué, suscitant bien des débats, et aboutissant à une première série de propositions rendue publique début février 2021. Cette première série de propositions est l’occasion pour nous de continuer notre analyse, en regardant notamment si l’esprit de celle-ci va ou non dans le sens de la logique « couplage reprise / transition » qui nous paraissait intéressante au printemps dernier.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate, for the first time, whether the next day’s consumption of natural gas can be accurately forecast using a simple model that solely incorporates the information contained in dayahead market data. Hence, unlike standard models that use a number of meteorological variables, we only consider two predictors: the price of natural gas and the spark ratio measuring the relative price of electricity to gas. We develop a suitable modeling approach that captures the essential features of daily gas consumption and, in particular, the nonlinearities resulting from power dispatching and apply it to the case of France. Our results document the existence of a long-run relation between demand and spot prices and provide estimates of the marginal impacts that these price variables have on observed demand levels. We also provide evidence of the pivotal role of the spark ratio in the short run which is found to have an asymmetric and highly nonlinearimpact on demand variations. Lastly, we show that our simple model is sufficient to generate predictions that are considerably more accurate than the forecasts published by infrastructure operators.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate, for the first time, whether the next day’s consumption of natural gas can be accurately forecast using a simple model that solely incorporates the information contained in dayahead market data. Hence, unlike standard models that use a number of meteorological variables, we only consider two predictors: the price of natural gas and the spark ratio measuring the relative price of electricity to gas. We develop a suitable modeling approach that captures the essential features of daily gas consumption and, in particular, the nonlinearities resulting from power dispatching and apply it to the case of France. Our results document the existence of a long-run relation between demand and spot prices and provide estimates of the marginal impacts that these price variables have on observed demand levels. We also provide evidence of the pivotal role of the spark ratio in the short run which is found to have an asymmetric and highly nonlinearimpact on demand variations. Lastly, we show that our simple model is sufficient to generate predictions that are considerably more accurate than the forecasts published by infrastructure operators.

This paper examines the deployment of a shared CO2 transportation infrastructure needed to support the combined emergence of Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Fossil energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). We develop a cooperative game-theoretic approach to: (i) examine the conditions needed for its construction to be decided, and (ii) determine the break-even CO2 value needed to build such a shared infrastructure. In particular, we highlight that, as biogenic emissions are overlooked in currently-implemented carbon accounting frameworks, BECCS and CCS emitters face asymmetric conditions for joining a shared infrastructure. We thus further examine the influence of these carbon accounting considerations by assessing and comparing the break-even CO2 values obtained under alternative accounting rules. We apply this modeling framework to a large contemporary BECCS/CCS case-study in Sweden. Our results indicate that sustainable and incentive-compatible cooperation schemes can be implemented if the value of CO2 is high enough and show how that value varies depending on the carbon accounting framework retained for negative emissions and the nature of the infrastructure operators. In the most advantageous scenario, the CO2 value needs to reach 112€/tCO2, while the current Swedish carbon tax amounts to 110€/tCO2. Overall, these findings position pragmatic policy recommendations for local BECCS deployment.

This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of biodiesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gasoil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy. The EU policy has enhanced biodiesel production since 2006. Biodiesel prices are impacted by the EU policy as well as rapeseed and oil prices which have fluctuateda lot over the last decade. An econometric analysis was performed using monthly data from November 2006 to January 2016. However, tests for structural breaks show several changes in price behavior. This leads us to estimate a regime-switching model which reveals two main regimes for the biodiesel price pattern. When oil prices are high, biodiesel, rapeseed and diesel oil prices are related, mainly driven by oil prices. When oil prices are low, biodiesel prices are mostly related to rapeseed prices according to EU regulations requiring the blending of biodiesel and gasoil.

This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of biodiesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gasoil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy. The EU policy has enhanced biodiesel production since 2006. Biodiesel prices are impacted by the EU policy as well as rapeseed and oil prices which have fluctuateda lot over the last decade. An econometric analysis was performed using monthly data from November 2006 to January 2016. However, tests for structural breaks show several changes in price behavior. This leads us to estimate a regime-switching model which reveals two main regimes for the biodiesel price pattern. When oil prices are high, biodiesel, rapeseed and diesel oil prices are related, mainly driven by oil prices. When oil prices are low, biodiesel prices are mostly related to rapeseed prices according to EU regulations requiring the blending of biodiesel and gasoil.

Using renewable energy off-grid power supply and choosing the right equipment that meets the operating conditions in the Arctic can provide companies with reliable power sources for producing gas at facilities located in remote areas and will reduce capital and operating costs associated with the construction of power transmission lines. For more than 15 years, a remote control system powered by renewable energy has been used in parallel with power transmission lines by Gazprom to operate its multiwell pads in Russia&rsquo, s Far North, which validates the relevance of this study. The subject of the study is a group of gas condensate wells that consists of four multiwell pads operated by Wintershall Russland GmbH. The article discusses a stand-alone renewable-based power system as an option for powering remote oil and gas production facilities. The procedures used in the study include calculating such parameters as power output and power consumption, choosing equipment, describing the design features of a power supply system for a multiwell pad, conducting an economic assessment of the project, comparing different power supply options, analyzing project risks, and developing measures to mitigate these risks.

Dans une économie durement touchée par la crise du COVID 19, comment remettre en fonction des acteurs de base de l’économie sur notre territoire à travers des activités porteuses de sens liées à la transition énergétique, dans un contexte de crise où en plus un prix du pétrole bas n’encourage pas cette transition ? L’utilisation du mécanisme des certificats permet-il de résoudre ce paradoxe, en mariant support à la relance économique et transition énergétique ? Dans une économie durement touchée par la crise du COVID 19, comment remettre en fonction des acteurs de base de l’économie surnotre territoire à travers des activités porteuses de sens liées à la transition énergétique, dans un contexte de crise où en plus un prix du pétrole bas n’encourage pas cette transition ? L’utilisation du mécanisme des certificats permet-il de résoudre ceparadoxe, en mariant support à la relance économique et transition énergétique ?

International audience; Active fault zones are not simple frictional interfaces. They are complex, evolving 3‐D structures that contain pore fluids in drained or undrained conditions. They show stable or unstable slip, dilatant or contractant elastic or plastic local deformations in response to far‐field extensive or compressive displacements. Pore fluid pressure variations induce effective stress and fluid compressibility changes, possibly up to degassing. For these reasons, we choose to use an analytical model in which the fault zone is schematized by a mesoscale poroplastic interface surrounded by two symmetrical elastic pads to investigate the conditions that can lead to slow slip vs. seismic slip. The chosen end‐cap plastic failure criterion and associated flow rule account for hardening/softening regimes. The model computes stress paths, normal/tangential displacement, and fluid pressure variations of the fault zone with time. Depending on the initial stress, pore pressure conditions, far‐field loading rate, and fluid compressibility, scenarios emerge that link together stable plastic deformation regimes (months to years, small displacements) and unstable regimes (seconds, metric displacements). While some scenarios show the occurrence of instability preceded or not by slow slip events, others show slow events without instability (mainshock). Also investigated are the effect of a switch from undrained to drained condition and the role of the change in fluid compressibility due to dilatancy. Finally, we discuss the geodetic and geophysical data necessary to calibrate the parameters of the empirical relationships. Slow slip event areas are therefore not necessarily “safe” and might produce earthquakes if conditions change.

International audience; This paper proposes a framework for the mesoscale modeling of potentially complex fault cores. Such faults cannot be modeled as simple frictional interfaces because they may be thicker and made of several slip surfaces embedded in a material that can contain both grains and broken blocks. Two main aspects are considered here. One, which is the main innovation in the paper, deals with the derivation for the specific rigid‐plastic interface constitutive law which was developed to account for the hardening/softening behavior of highly stressed rocks like in geological faults. The other one deals with the theoretical and numerical study of the response of the structural model in which this constitutive law was implemented. This first structural model was chosen to represent the behavior of faults surrounded by elastic rock masses. The results obtained from this model already illustrate the high potentiality of the proposed interface constitutive law in the context of seismology. When far‐field displacement boundary conditions evolving time are used, different modes of evolution emerge, and transitions happen, from quasi‐static to dynamic or vice versa with timescales extending from tens of years to seconds. The instability domain and the dynamic solution are detailed together with the related energy considerations. An extensive analysis of specific case studies is available in Maury et al., companion paper, in particular as regards the possibility for slow slip events to transition into seismic slip (or vice versa). The implementation of the interface model into more realistic and advanced numerical fault models should offer many perspectives.

International audience; We examine the profitability of flexible routing by LNG cargoes for a single supplier taking into account uncertainty in the medium-term dynamics of gas markets. First, we model the trajectory of natural gas prices in Asia, Northern America, and Europe using a Threshold Vector AutoRegression representation (TVAR) in which the system's dynamics switches back and forth between high and low regimes of oil price volatility. We then use the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) obtained from the estimated threshold model to analyze the effects of volatility shocks on the regional gas markets dynamics. Lastly, the valuation of destination flexibility in LNG supplies is conducted using a real option approach. We generate a sample of possible future regional price trajectories using Monte Carlo simulations of our empirical model and determine for each trajectory the optimal shipping decisions and their profitability. Our results portend a substantial source of profit for the industry and reveal future movements of vessels. We discuss the conditional impact of destination flexibility on the globalization of natural gas markets.

International audience; Gas turbine systems are among potential energy converters to substitute the internal combustion engine as auxiliary power unit in future series hybrid electric vehicle powertrains. Fuel consumption of these auxiliary power units in the series hybrid electric vehicle strongly relies on the energy converter efficiency and power-to-weight ratio as well as on the energy management strategy deployed on-board. This paper presents a technological analysis and investigates the potential of fuel consumption savings of a series hybrid electric vehicle using different gas turbine–system thermodynamic configurations. These include a simple gas turbine, a regenerative gas turbine, an intercooler regenerative gas turbine, and an intercooler regenerative reheat gas turbine. An energetic and technological analysis is conducted to identify the systems’ efficiency and power-to-weight ratio for different operating temperatures. A series hybrid electric vehicle model is developed and the different gas turbine–system configurations are integrated as auxiliary power units. A bi-level optimization method is proposed to optimize the powertrain. It consists of coupling the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm to the dynamic programming to minimize the fuel consumption and the number of switching ON/OFF of the auxiliary power unit, which impacts its durability. Fuel consumption simulations are performed on the worldwide-harmonized light vehicles test cycle while considering the electric and thermal comfort vehicle energetic needs. Results show that the intercooler regenerative reheat gas turbine–auxiliary power unit presents an improved fuel consumption compared with the other investigated gas turbine systems and a good potential for implementation in series hybrid electric vehicles.

International audience; Global warming has put the transport sector, a major contributor of CO 2 emissions, under high pressure to improve efficiency. In this context, ultra-light vehicles weighting less than 500 kg, as well as hybrid powertrains, are nowadays seen as promising development trends. The design process of the powertrain of a vehicle combining the advantages of the two concepts is presented in this paper. Through a performance study based on a simple MATLAB model, and mathematical simulation, a proposal is made. A powertrain using a battery and supercapacitor 48V dual power source network, two electric motors and clutches to switch between conventional, parallel, series and full electric modes proves to be an interesting system in terms of performance and costs. A simulation study conducted on a scenario with different outcome possibilities showed that high modularity of the system allows to achieve fuel efficiencies equivalent to approximately 3 l/100 km on the Artemis cycle. Finally, integration, packaging and cost are considered and some hints for further powertrain efficiency improvements are presented.

International audience; In poor developing countries, the discovery of large gas deposits often stimulates the public authorities' appetite for ambitious development strategies requiring the construction of a large national pipeline system. However, the foreign private investors financing its installation usually prefer smaller infrastructure designs that are solely intended to supply a few creditworthy industrial sites. Focusing on the situation in Mozambique, we examine whether the adoption of rate-of-return (RoR) regulation can reconcile these conflicting objectives. As a first step, we assess the magnitude of the overcapitalization generated ex ante at the planning stage by the application of RoR regulation (i.e., the Averch-Johnson effect) to the investors. Then, analyzing the ex post situation when the enlarged domestic demand materializes, we prove that the allowable rate of return can be set by the regulator to obtain ex ante the degree of overcapitalization needed ex post to serve the enlarged demand in a cost-efficient manner. We finally discuss whether RoR regulation can still protect society from monopoly prices when it is tuned to prompt an optimal degree of building ahead of proven demand.

International audience; This chapter assesses the environmental and economical performances of Jatropha biodiesel used as fuel by a diesel generator supplying electricity to the Ivorian remote locality of 500 inhabitants. It begins with a presentation of the Ivorian electric context and the Jatropha plant from which biodiesel is produced. Then, it presents the different assumptions adopted and the tools used, namely, the life cycle assessment (LCA), the calculation of the power of the diesel generator, and the calculation of the electricity production cost. By the end of the chapter, the results obtained from the LCA, the calculation of the diesel generator power, and the calculation of the cost of electricity generation from Jatropha biodiesel are presented. Of course, an interpretation of these results is carried out in order to draw the conclusions. The main results obtained at the end of this study are as follows:•One kilowatt-hour of electricity generation from Jatropha oil is more environmental efficient than the generation of 1 kW h of electricity from conventional diesel. In fact, there is no impact on global warming, no eutrophication, and there is the same impact on nonrenewable energy depletion with the use of conventional diesel.•The cost of electricity generation from Jatropha oil for an Ivorian village of 500 people (0.1€/kW h) is better than the fixed electricity generation cost from biomass (0.2€/kW h) but on the condition of developing a market for the oil cake.

This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of bio-diesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gas-oil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy. The EU policy has enhanced bio-diesel production since 2006. Bio-diesel prices are impacted by the EU policy as well as rapeseed and oil prices which have fluctuated a lot over the last decade. An econometric analysis was performed using monthly data from November 2006 to January 2016. However, tests for structural breaks show several changes in price behavior. This leads us to estimate a regime-switching model which reveals two main regimes for the bio-diesel price pattern. When oil prices are high, bio-diesel, rapeseed and diesel oil prices are related, mainly driven by oil prices. When oil prices are low, bio-diesel prices are mostly related to rapeseed prices according to EU regulations requiring the blending of bio-diesel and gas-oil.

We examine the profitability of flexible routing by LNG cargoes for a single supplier taking into account uncertainty in the medium-term dynamics of gas markets. First, we model the trajectory of natural gas prices in Asia, Northern America, and Europe using a Threshold Vector AutoRegression representation (TVAR) in which the system’s dynamics switches back and forth between high and low regimes of oil price volatility. We then use the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) obtained from the estimated threshold model to analyze the effects of volatility shocks on the regional gas markets dynamics. Lastly, the valuation of destination flexibility in LNG supplies is conducted using a real option approach. We generate a sample of possible future regional price trajectories using Monte Carlo simulations of our empirical model and determine for each trajectory the optimal shipping decisions and their profitability. Our results portend a substantial source of profit for the industry and reveal future movements of vessels. We discuss the conditional impact of destination flexibility on the globalization of natural gas markets.

International audience; This note details a complete microeconomic characterization of the physical relationships between input use and the level of output of a simple point-to-point gas pipeline system and uses it to contribute to the public policy discussions pertaining to the economic regulation of natural gas pipelines. We show that the engineering equations governing the design and operations of that infrastructure can be approximated by a single production equation of the Cobb-Douglas type. We use that result to inform three public policy debates. First, we prove that the long-run cost function of the infrastructure formally verifies the condition for a natural monopoly, thereby justifying the need of regulatory intervention in that industry. Second, we examine the conditions for cost-recovery in the short-run and contribute to the emerging European discussions on the implementation of short-run marginal cost pricing on interconnector pipelines. Lastly, we analyze the performance of rate-of-return regulation in that industry and inform the regulatory policy debates on the selection of an appropriate authorized rate of return. We highlight that, contrary to popular belief, the socially desirable rate of return can be larger than the market price of capital for that industry.

Renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity, public policies have been implemented in order to foster their deployment. The approach that has been privileged in Europe is the demand-pull approach that aims at creating a demand for these new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion. This paper examines the effect of demand-pull policies on the diffusion of onshore wind power technology in six European countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain. In a first step, a micro-founded model of diffusion is calibrated in order to replicate the observed diffusion of wind power in these six countries. In a second step, a counterfactual analysis is conducted by investigating several scenarios. By taking into account the complex self-sustained dynamics of diffusion and the learning spillovers that operate in the wind power sector, we can derive several insights about demand-pull policies. First, the impact of a demand-pull policy on the diffusion of wind power is determined by the stage at which it comes to support it. The effect seems to be stronger at the beginning of the diffusion. Second, international spillovers do operate in the wind power sector. These international spillovers however are not strong enough to foster the diffusion of wind power in a country having no demand-pull support. We can derive from these two statements that a strategy consisting in not implementing any demand-pull policy, with the expectation that international spillovers will reduce the cost of wind power and foster the diffusion of the technology that then shall become competitive, is not a good option for a country targeting a high share of wind power in its energy mix.

International audience; Using the gross world product (GWP) as the only exogenous input variable, we design a model able to accurately reproduce the global population dynamics over the period 1950–2015. For any future increasing GWP scenarios, our model yields verysimilar population trajectories. The major implication of this result is that both the United Nations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assume future decoupling possibilities between economic development and fertility that have neverbeen witnessed during the last sixty-five years. In case of an abrupt collapse of the economic production, our model responds with higher death rates that are more than offset by increasing birth rates, leading to a relatively larger and younger population. Finally, we add to our model an excess mortality function associated with climate change. Estimates of additional climate-related deaths for 2095-2100 range from 1 million in a +2◦C scenario to 6 million in a +4◦C scenario.

International audience; Using the gross world product (GWP) as the only exogenous input variable, we design a model able to accurately reproduce the global population dynamics over the period 1950–2015. For any future increasing GWP scenarios, our model yields verysimilar population trajectories. The major implication of this result is that both the United Nations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assume future decoupling possibilities between economic development and fertility that have neverbeen witnessed during the last sixty-five years. In case of an abrupt collapse of the economic production, our model responds with higher death rates that are more than offset by increasing birth rates, leading to a relatively larger and younger population. Finally, we add to our model an excess mortality function associated with climate change. Estimates of additional climate-related deaths for 2095-2100 range from 1 million in a +2◦C scenario to 6 million in a +4◦C scenario.

In poor developing countries, the discovery of large gas deposits often stimulates the public authorities’ appetite for ambitious development strategies requiring the construction of a large national pipeline system. However, the foreign private investors financing its installation usually prefer smaller infrastructure designs that are solely intended to supply a few creditworthy industrial sites. Focusing on the situation in Mozambique, we examine whether the adoption of rate-of-return (RoR) regulation can reconcile these conflicting objectives. As a first step, we assess the magnitude of the overcapitalization generated ex ante at the planning stage by the application of RoR regulation (i.e., the Averch-Johnson effect) to the investors. Then, analyzing the ex post situation when the enlarged domestic demand materializes, we prove that the allowable rate of return can be set by the regulator to obtain ex ante the degree of overcapitalization needed ex post to serve the enlarged demand in a cost-efficient manner. We finally discuss whether RoR regulation can still protect society from monopoly prices when it istuned to prompt an optimal degree of building ahead of proven demand.

International audience; Under way to a European integrated energy market, policymakers need to find efficient measures aimed at increasing liquidity in local natural gas markets. The paper answers the question whether a merger of gas trading zones contributes to the development of liquid trading activities through a more efficient allocation and pricing of natural gas and an increased competition between market players. We analyse the effects of a policy decision to merge two gas trading zones in France on the observed degree of spatial market integration and the efficiency of the spatial arbitrage activity between the northern and southern French gas markets. An extended parity bounds model confirms a positive impact of the zone merger on the market's spatial equilibrium and indicates the causes of remaining market inefficiencies. The model offers a tool for the assessment of the efficiency of policy decisions in the context of policy initiatives to create an integrated and liquid natural gas market in Europe.