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The ice streams flowing into the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, are losing mass due to changes in oceanic basal melting of their floating ice shelves. Rapid ice‐shelf melting is sustained by the delivery of warm Circumpolar Deep Water to the ice‐shelf cavities, which is first supplied to the continental shelf by an undercurrent that flows eastward along the shelf break. Temporal variability of this undercurrent controls ice‐shelf basal melt variability. Recent work shows that on decadal timescales the undercurrent variability opposes surface wind variability. Using a regional model, we show that undercurrent variability is induced by sea‐ice freshwater fluxes, particularly those north of the shelf break, which affect the cross‐shelf break density gradient. This sea‐ice variability is linked to tropical Pacific variability impacting atmospheric conditions over the Amundsen Sea. Ice‐shelf melting also feeds back onto the undercurrent by affecting the on‐shelf density, thereby influencing shelf‐break density gradient anomalies. Plain Language Summary: The glaciers that flow toward the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, are losing ice faster than most others about the continent. Once these glaciers reach the coast, they extend out onto the ocean surface, forming ice shelves. The rapid loss of ice is caused by changes in melting by relatively warm ocean waters beneath the floating ice shelves. In the Amundsen Sea, a deep ocean current is responsible for delivering warm water from the deep ocean to the ice shelves. We present model results that show that this deep current varies on decadal timescales as a consequence of systematic sea‐ice melt and formation patterns. A faster current drives more rapid ice shelf melting which, via a feedback process, further accelerates the current. Climate variability originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean is responsible for the variability in the sea‐ice, and is therefore also responsible for the effects on melting of the ice shelves. Key Points: In the Amundsen Sea decadal variability of an undercurrent flowing along the shelf break drives decadal variability in ice‐shelf basal meltSea‐ice freshwater fluxes and positive feedbacks from ice‐shelf basal melt drive the undercurrent variabilityTropical Pacific teleconnections induce atmospheric anomalies over the Amundsen Sea which drive the sea‐ice freshwater flux variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study focuses on the utilization of Earth observation satellite-04 (EOS-04) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data for maintaining the continuity of the first Indian radar imaging satellite (RISAT)-1 SAR derived products along with exploring the potential of capability of the improved sensor over mountain and polar cryospheric region. Backscattering coefficient (σ0) of various snow and ice features over mountain and polar cryosphere have been analysed to understand the interaction mechanism using C-band SAR data. EOS-04 is able to pick up the spatio-temporal variability of SAR backscatters over accumulation and ablation zone of the glacier due to melt-freeze cycles, and observations were in accordance with variation in elevations over the glacier surface. When analysed for Drang-Drung glacier, wet snow zone was found to be prominently centered around 5500 m elevation zone, having sigmanaught backscatter lower than –10 dB in the ablation months, whereas percolation zone was observed at more than 6000 m elevation with higher sigma-naught backscatter of around –4 dB and above as winter started setting in. EOS-04 also showed the potential to classify various polar ice features based on backscattering signature using HH (H, horizontal) (σ0), HV (V, vertical) (σ0) and normalized difference polarization ratio index (NDPRI) respectively. EOS-04 data have been used to implement approaches to retrieve wet snow cover and set up of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological Modelling System (WRF hydro) model for snow melt runoff studies, interaction mechanism of snow and ice, snow/ice facies extraction, ice shelf monitoring, sea ice properties and sea ice advisory for Indian scientific expedition to Antarctica. Enrichment of EOS-04 data, suitable for cryosphere studies, will be employed to retrieve parameters such as snowpack properties, elevation, ice surface velocities over mountain and polar region, and to further improve comprehensive understanding on regional and global frozen ice dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent geologic and modeled evidence suggests that the grounding line of the Siple Coast of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated hundreds of kilometers beyond its present position in the middle to late Holocene and readvanced within the past 1.7 ka. This grounding line reversal has been attributed to both changing rates of isostatic rebound and regional climate change. Here, we test these two hypotheses using a proxy-informed ensemble of ice sheet model simulations with varying ocean thermal forcing, global glacioisostatic adjustment (GIA) model simulations, and coupled ice sheet-GIA simulations that consider the interactions between these processes. Our results indicate that a warm to cold ocean cavity regime shift is the most likely cause of this grounding line reversal, but that GIA influences the rate of ice sheet response to oceanic changes. This implies that the grounding line here is sensitive to future changes in sub-ice shelf ocean circulation. Using ice sheet model and glacio-isostatic adjustment model simulations and paleoclimate proxies, this work demonstrates that the most likely cause of past West Antarctic grounding-line reversal was a regime shift from a warm to cold ocean cavity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated ice shelf melt rates in West Antarctica have been attributed to transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the continental shelf via bathymetric troughs. These inflows are supplied by an eastward, subsurface slope current (referred to as the Antarctic Slope Undercurrent) that opposes the westward momentum input from local winds and tides. Despite its importance to basal melt, the mechanism via which the undercurrent forms, and thus what controls the shoreward heat transport, remains unclear. In this study, the dynamics of the undercurrent are investigated using high-resolution process-oriented simulations with coupled ocean, sea ice, and ice shelf components. It is shown that the bathymetric steering of the undercurrent toward the ice shelf is driven by upwelling of meltwater within the ice shelf cavity. Increased basal melt therefore strengthens the undercurrent and enhances onshore CDW transport, which indicates a positive feedback that may accelerate future melt of ice shelves, potentially further destabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article highlights a daring expedition to Antarctica's Canisteo Peninsula, where a team led by Peter Neff, a polar glaciologist, drills ice cores crucial for understanding the precarious state of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Topics include the urgent need for data on Antarctic coastal climate, the challenges of drilling in remote and stormy locations, and the significance of ice cores in unraveling past and future climate trends in the region.

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections. Plain Language Summary: Over the past several decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing ice and contributing to sea‐level rise. About half of this ice loss is induced by melt that occurs where glaciers meet the ocean. Using coarse‐scale ocean models that simulate circulation around the globe, previous studies have noted a strong link between ocean temperature and enhanced glacier ice loss. However, due to the small scale of Greenland's fjords, coarse models are unable to directly quantify circulation in these fjords and melt on submerged glaciers. In this study, we develop a new framework to "zoom in" on a fjord, using high‐resolution models driven by larger coarse‐resolution models. In this approach, we simulate melt on one of Greenland's biggest glaciers and find that periods of higher melt coincide with more ice loss as observed from satellites. Since this framework is adaptable to other regions, it could also be used to simulate melt on other glaciers and support estimates of future sea‐level rise. Key Points: Subsurface temperature variability is simulated in a narrow fjord network using regional models downscaled from a global state estimateModeled increases in ocean melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier coincide with the onset of acceleration in 2005 and retreat and thinning in 2011Model variations in shelf‐to‐fjord ocean properties match with observations, providing a basis to estimate ocean forcing in ice projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observations suggest that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts basal melting of West Antarctic ice shelves, yet sparse ocean observations limit our understanding of the associated processes. Here we investigate how ENSO events modulate subsurface West Antarctic shelf temperatures using high‐resolution global ocean‐sea ice model simulations. During El Niño, the subsurface shelf warming between 150 m and the shelf bottom can be up to 0.5°C in front of ice shelves. This warming arises from a weaker Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and weaker coastal easterlies that reduce on‐shelf Ekman transport of cold surface waters, enabling enhanced transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the shelf. A largely opposite response occurs during La Niña, with a stronger ASL and stronger Ekman transport that results in less cross‐shelf CDW transport and cooling in the subsurface. These findings have implications for interpreting basal melting on interannual to decadal time‐scales in West Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's dominant year‐to‐year climate variation. The impacts of its two phases, El Niño and La Niña, extend from the tropics to Antarctica through atmospheric waves. Past studies have suggested that West Antarctic ice shelves melt more during El Niño because of warmer ocean waters at the ice shelf bases. However, oceanic changes during El Niño lead to warming on the shelf near the ice which is difficult to isolate. That is because ENSO is only one of many drivers that impact shelf water temperatures. In this work, we simulate isolated ENSO events using an ocean circulation model. We show that during El Niño, the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters in West Antarctica, driven by coastal easterly winds, is reduced because the winds weaken. To balance out this mass deficit at the surface, more warm CDW flows onto the continental shelf below. During La Niña, we see a largely opposite response. Stronger coastal easterlies increase the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters and less CDW is flowing onto the shelf. Our results show the link between ENSO and mass loss of the West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet. Key Points: Ocean‐sea ice model simulations of El Niño and La Niña events illustrate how they modulate West Antarctic shelf temperaturesEl Niño weakens coastal easterlies, reduces on‐shelf Ekman flow of cold waters, increasing cross‐shelf flow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW)The La Niña shelf circulation response is largely opposite and reduces cross‐shelf transport of warm CDW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) maximum on 7 September was the lowest annual maximum in the satellite era (16.98 × 106 km2), with the largest contributions to the anomaly coming from the Ross (37.7%, −0.57 × 106 km2) and Weddell (32.9%, −0.49 × 106 km2) Seas. The SIE was low due to anomalously warm (>0.3°C) upper‐ocean temperatures combined with anomalously strong northerly winds impeding the ice advance during the fall and winter. Northerly winds of >12 ms−1 in the Weddell Sea occurred because of negative pressure anomalies over the Antarctic Peninsula, while those in the Ross Sea were associated with extreme blocking episodes off the Ross Ice Shelf. The Ross Sea experienced an unprecedented SIE decrease of −1.08 × 103 km2 d−1 from 1 June till the annual maximum. The passage of quasi‐stationary and explosive polar cyclones contributed to periods of southward ice‐edge shift in both sectors. Plain Language Summary: Sea ice provides a vital habitat for life in the Southern Ocean, and plays an important role in the ocean circulation, the dynamics of the Earth's climate, the biogeochemical cycle, and the regional ecosystem. Climatologically, Antarctic sea ice expands northwards from the continent each autumn and winter. However, in 2023 an unprecedented slow ice expansion occurred in the Southern Ocean ahead of the annual maximum on 7 September of 16.98 × 106 km2, which was 1.46 × 106 km2 below the long‐term average. In fact, the area covered by ice remained at a record low level every day from 21 April 2023 until 11 November 2023. Our findings suggest that an impact of upper‐ocean warming and changes in winds, combined with heat and moisture fluxes, extreme winds and high ocean waves associated with polar cyclones (storms), contributed to these record low ice conditions. In particular, cyclones caused episodes of exceptional slow ice expansion or even retreat, leading to negative ice anomalies. For instance, the ice‐edge in the Weddell Sea was moved southwards quickly in a few days (up to 256 km southward) with an ice area loss of ∼2.3 × 105 km2, equivalent to the size of United Kingdom. Key Points: The 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent maximum on 7 September (16.98 × 106 km2) was the lowest annual maximum in the satellite eraAnomalous upper‐ocean warming and strong northerly winds contributed to impeding the ice expansion in the Ross and Weddell SeasQuasi‐stationary and explosive polar cyclones contributed to periods of southward ice‐edge shift in both sectors [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice shelves are assumed to flow steadily from their grounding lines to the ice front. We report the detection of ice‐propagating extensional Lamb (plate) waves accompanied by pulses of permanent ice shelf displacement observed by co‐located Global Navigation Satellite System receivers and seismographs on the Ross Ice Shelf. The extensional waves and associated ice shelf displacement are produced by tidally triggered basal slip events of the Whillans Ice Stream, which flows into the ice shelf. The propagation velocity of 2,800 m/s is intermediate between shear and compressional ice velocities, with velocity and particle motions consistent with predictions for extensional Lamb waves. During the passage of the Lamb waves the entire ice shelf is displaced about 60 mm with a velocity more than an order of magnitude above its long‐term flow rate. Observed displacements indicate a peak dynamic strain of 10−7, comparable to that of earthquake surface waves that trigger ice quakes. Plain Language Summary: Ice shelves normally flow steadily toward their boundaries with the open ocean at the ice front. However, seismographs and Global Navigation Satellite System receivers deployed on the Ross Ice Shelf record guided elastic plate waves traveling in the ice as well as permanent displacement of the ice shelf. The elastic waves and ice shelf displacement originate from basal slip events of the Whillans Ice Stream, which flows into the Ross Ice Shelf. The velocity of the elastic waves is about 2,800 m/s, as expected for guided plate waves propagating in an ice shelf. During the passage of the elastic waves, the entire ice shelf with an area of 500,000 square kilometers is displaced about 60 mm in a direction away from the Whillans Ice Stream. These observations show that the strain imparted to the ice shelf by the once or twice daily Whillans Ice Stream basal slip events is sufficient to trigger ice quakes and perhaps enhance the deformation of the ice shelf. Key Points: Extensional Lamb waves propagate across the Ross Ice Shelf, radiated from slip events at the base of the Whillans Ice StreamDuring the passage of the Lamb waves, the entire ice shelf is displaced about 60 mm, with a velocity an order of magnitude above its long‐term flow rateThe displacement pulses produce a peak dynamic strain of 10−7, suggesting that they could trigger icequakes in the ice shelf [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate at which the Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass is to a large degree controlled by ice-ocean interactions underneath small ice shelves, with the most sensitive regions concentrated in even smaller areas near grounding lines and local pinning points. Sufficient horizontal resolution is key to resolving critical ice-ocean processes in these regions, but difficult to afford in large-scale models used to predict the coupled response of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean to climate change. In this study we describe the implementation of a framework that couples the ice sheet flow model Úa with the Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM-1.4) in a configuration using depth-dependent vertical coordinates. The novelty of this approach is the use of horizontally unstructured grids in both model components, allowing us to resolve critical processes directly, while keeping computational demands within the range of feasibility. We use the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project framework to verify that ice retreat and readvance is reliably simulated, and inaccuracies in mass, heat and salt conservation are small compared to the forcing signal. Further, we demonstrate the capabilities of our approach for a global ocean/Antarctic Ice Sheet domain. In a 39-year hindcast simulation (1979–2018) we resolve retreat behaviour of Pine Island Glacier, a known challenge for coarser resolution models. We conclude that Úa-FESOM is well suited to improve predictions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution over centennial time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grounding line, delineating the boundary where a grounded glacier goes afloat in ocean water, shifts in response to tidal cycles. Here we analyze COSMO-SkyMed Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data acquired in 2020 and 2021 over Totten, Moscow University, and Rennick glaciers in East Antarctica, detecting tide-induced grounding line position variations from 0.5 to 12.5 km along prograde slopes ranging from ~0 to 5 %. Considering a glacier as a non-Newtonian fluid, we provide two-dimensional formulations of the viscous and viscoelastic short-term behavior of a glacier in partial frictional contact with the bedrock, and partially floating on sea water. Since the models' equations are not amenable to analytical treatment, numerical solutions are obtained using FEniCS, an open-source Python package. We establish the dependence of the grounding zone width on glacier thickness, bed slope, and glacier flow speed. The predictions of the viscoelastic model match ~93 % of all the DInSAR grounding zone measurements and are 71 % more accurate than those of the viscous model. The results of this study underscore the critical role played by ice elasticity in continuum mechanics-based glacier models, and being validated with the DInSAR measurements, can be used in other studies on glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melting icebergs provide nearly half of the total freshwater flux from ice shelves to the ocean, but the availability of accurate, data-constrained melting rate parametrisations limits the correct representation of this process in ocean models. Here, we investigate the melting of a vertical ice face in a warm, salt-stratified environment in a laboratory setting. Observations of the depth-dependent melting rates ${m}$ and boundary layer flow speed $U$ are reported for a range of initially uniform far-field ambient temperatures $T_a$ above ${10}\,^{\circ }{\rm C}$. Ice scallops are characteristic features observed in all experiments, with the width of the scallops consistent with the theory of double-diffusive layers. The morphology of the scallops changes from symmetric about the scallop centre in the colder experiments to asymmetric in the warmer experiments. Observed melting rates are consistent with a melting rate scaling of the form ${m}\propto U\,\Delta T_a$ proposed by previous work in less extreme parameter regimes, where $\Delta T_a$ is the magnitude of thermal driving between the ambient and ice–fluid interface. Our results indicate that ice scalloping is closely linked to the naturally convecting flow of the ambient fluid. Depth-averaged melting rates depend on the buoyancy frequency in the ambient fluid, and double-diffusive convection promotes a turbulent-flux regime distinct from that explained previously in an unstratified regime. These findings have implications for parametrising melting rates of icebergs and glaciers in numerical models or potential freshwater harvesting operations, and provide insights into the interplay between stratification and ice melting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variational principle is proposed to derive the governing equations for the problem of ocean wave interactions with a floating ice shelf, where the ice shelf is modelled by the full linear equations of elasticity and has an Archimedean draught. The variational principle is used to form a thin-plate approximation for the ice shelf, which includes water–ice coupling at the shelf front and extensional waves in the shelf, in contrast to the benchmark thin-plate approximation for ocean wave interactions with an ice shelf. The thin-plate approximation is combined with a single-mode approximation in the water, where the vertical motion is constrained to the eigenfunction that supports propagating waves. The new terms in the approximation are shown to have a major impact on predictions of ice shelf strains for wave periods in the swell regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the high number and diversity of events in a typical cryoseismic dataset, in particular those recorded on ice sheet margins, it is desirable to use a semi-automated method of grouping similar events for reconnaissance and ongoing analysis. We present a workflow for employing semi-unsupervised cluster analysis to inform investigations of the processes occurring in glaciers and ice sheets. In this demonstration study, we make use of a seismic event catalogue previously compiled for the Whillans Ice Stream, for the 2010–2011 austral summer outlined in Part 1,. We address the challenges of seismic event analysis for a complex wave field by clustering similar seismic events into groups using characteristic temporal, spectral, and polarization attributes of seismic time series with the k -means++ algorithm. This provides the basis for a reconnaissance analysis of a seismic wave field that contains local events (from the ice stream) set in an ambient wave field that itself contains a diversity of signals (mostly from the Ross Ice Shelf). As one result, we find that two clusters include stick-slip events that diverge in terms of length and initiation locality (i.e., central sticky spot and/or the grounding line). We also identify a swarm of high-frequency signals on 16–17 January 2011 that are potentially associated with a surface melt event from the Ross Ice Shelf. Used together with the event detection presented in Part 1, the semi-automated workflow could readily be generalized to other locations and, as a possible benchmark procedure, could enable the monitoring of remote glaciers over time and comparisons between locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic firn layer provides pore space in which an estimated 94 % to 96 % of the surface melt refreezes or is retained as liquid water. Future depletion of firn pore space by increased surface melt, densification and formation of low-permeability ice slabs can potentially lead to meltwater ponding, hydrofracturing and ice-shelf disintegration. Here, we investigate the 21st-century evolution of total firn air content (FAC) and accessible FAC (i.e. the pore space that meltwater can reach) across Antarctic ice shelves. We use the semi-empirical IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) with an updated dynamical densification expression to cope with changing climate forcing. The firn model is forced by general circulation model output of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) for three climate emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), dynamically downscaled to a 27 km horizontal resolution by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2.3p2). To estimate accessible FAC, we prescribe a relationship between ice-slab thickness and permeability. In our simulations, ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total FAC depletion (> 50 % decrease by 2100), even for low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and intermediate-emission (SSP2-4.5) scenarios. In the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario in particular, the formation of ice slabs further reduces accessible FAC on ice shelves with low accumulation rates (current rates of < 500 mmw.e.yr-1), including many East Antarctic ice shelves and the Filchner–Ronne, Ross, Pine Island and Larsen C ice shelves. These results underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice-slab formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frontal ablation is responsible for a large fraction of the mass loss from tidewater glaciers. The main contributors to frontal ablation are iceberg calving and submarine melting, with calving often being the largest. However, submarine melting, in addition to its direct contribution to mass loss, also promotes calving through the changes induced in the stress field at the glacier terminus, so both processes should be jointly analysed. Among the factors influencing submarine melting, the formation of a buoyant plume due to the emergence of fresh subglacial water at the glacier grounding line plays a key role. In this study we used Elmer/Ice to develop a 3D glacier dynamics model including calving and subglacial hydrology coupled with a line plume model to calculate the calving front position at every time step. We applied this model to the Hansbreen–Hansbukta glacier–fjord system in southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, where a large set of data are available for both the glacier and the fjord from September 2008 to March 2011. We found that our 3D model reproduced the expected seasonal cycle of advance–retreat. Besides, the modelled front positions were in good agreement with the observed front positions at the central part of the calving front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m for the period from December 2009 to March 2011. But there were regions of the front, especially the eastern margin, that presented major differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glaciers along the Amundsen Sea coastline in West Antarctica are dynamically adjusting to a change in ice-shelf mass balance that triggered their retreat and speed-up prior to the satellite era. In recent decades, the ice shelves have continued to thin, albeit at a decelerating rate, whilst ice discharge across the grounding lines has been observed to have increased by up to 100 % since the early 1990s. Here, the ongoing evolution of ice-shelf mass balance components is assessed in a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model that includes the Pine Island, Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves. For a range of idealized ocean-forcing scenarios, the combined evolution of ice-shelf geometry and basal-melt rates is simulated over a 200-year period. For all ice-shelf cavities, a reconfiguration of the 3D ocean circulation in response to changes in cavity geometry is found to cause significant and sustained changes in basal-melt rate, ranging from a 75 % decrease up to a 75 % increase near the grounding lines, irrespective of the far-field forcing. These previously unexplored feedbacks between changes in ice-shelf geometry, ocean circulation, and basal melting have a demonstrable impact on the net ice-shelf mass balance, including grounding-line discharge, at multi-decadal timescales. They should be considered in future projections of Antarctic mass loss alongside changes in ice-shelf melt due to anthropogenic trends in the ocean temperature and salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscapes buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet preserve information about the geologic and geomorphic evolution of the continent both before and during the wide-scale glaciation that began roughly 34×106 years ago. Since the inception of this ice sheet, some areas have remained cold-based and non-erosive, preserving ancient landscapes remarkably intact. The Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in central East Antarctica are one such landscape, maintaining evidence of tectonic, fluvial and glacial controls on their distinctly alpine morphology. The central Gamburtsev Mountains have previously been surveyed using airborne ice-penetrating radar; however, many questions remain as to their evolution and their influence on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, including where in the region to drill for a 1.5×106 year-long "oldest-ice" core. Here, we derive new maps of the planform geometry of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains from satellite remote sensing datasets of the ice sheet surface, based on the relationship between bed roughness and ice surface morphology. Automated and manual approaches to mapping were tested and validated against existing radar data and elevation models. Manual mapping was more effective than automated approaches at reproducing bed features observed in radar data, but a hybrid approach is suggested for future work. The maps produced here show the detail of mountain ridges and valleys on wavelengths significantly smaller than the spacing of existing radar flightlines, and mapping has extended well beyond the confines of existing radar surveys. Morphometric analysis of the mapped landscape reveals that it constitutes a preserved (>34 Ma) dendritic valley network, with some evidence for modification by topographically confined glaciation prior to ice sheet inception. The planform geometry of the landscape is a significant control on locations of basal melting, subglacial hydrological flows and the stability of the ice sheet over time, so the maps presented here may help to guide decisions about where to search for oldest ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In late March 2011, landfast sea ice (hereafter, "fast ice") formed in the northern Larsen B embayment and persisted continuously as multi-year fast ice until January 2022. In the 11 years of fast-ice presence, the northern Larsen B glaciers slowed significantly, thickened in their lower reaches, and developed extensive mélange areas, leading to the formation of ice tongues that extended up to 16 km from the 2011 ice fronts. In situ measurements of ice speed on adjacent ice shelf areas spanning 2011 to 2017 show that the fast ice provided significant resistive stress to ice flow. Fast-ice breakout began in late January 2022 and was closely followed by retreat and breakup of both the fast-ice mélange and the glacier ice tongues. We investigate the probable triggers for the loss of fast ice and document the initial upstream glacier responses. The fast-ice breakup is linked to the arrival of a strong ocean swell event (>1.5 m amplitude; wave period waves >5 s) originating from the northeast. Wave propagation to the ice front was facilitated by a 12-year low in sea ice concentration in the northwestern Weddell Sea, creating a near-ice-free corridor to the open ocean. Remote sensing data in the months following the fast-ice breakout reveals an initial ice flow speed increase (>2 -fold), elevation loss (9 to 11 m), and rapid calving of floating and grounded ice for the three main embayment glaciers Crane (11 km), Hektoria (25 km), and Green (18 km). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding drivers of marine-terminating ice sheet behavior is important for constraining ice contributions to global sea level rise. In part, the stability of marine-terminating ice is influenced by solid Earth conditions at the grounded-ice margin. While the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) contributed significantly to global mean sea level during its final post-Last-Glacial-Maximum (LGM) collapse, the drivers and patterns of retreat are not well constrained. Coastal outcrops in the deglaciated Puget Lowland of Washington State – largely below sea level during glacial maxima, then uplifted above sea level via glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) – record the late Pleistocene history of the CIS. The preservation of LGM glacial and post-LGM deglacial sediments provides a unique opportunity to assess the variability in marine ice sheet behavior of the southernmost CIS. Based on paired stratigraphic and geochronological work, with a newly developed marine reservoir correction for this region, we identify that the late-stage CIS experienced stepwise retreat into a marine environment between 15 000 and 14 000 years before present, consistent with timing of marine incursion into the region reported in earlier works. Standstill of marine-terminating ice for at least 500 years, paired with rapid vertical landscape evolution, was followed by continued retreat of ice in a subaerial environment. These results suggest rapid rates of solid Earth uplift and topographic support (e.g., grounding zone wedges) stabilized the ice margin, supporting final subaerial ice retreat. This work leads to a better understanding of shallow-marine and coastal-ice-sheet retreat and is relevant to sectors of the contemporary Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and marine-terminating outlet glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning strikes can cause equipment damage and power outages, so the distribution system's reliability in withstanding lightning strikes is crucial. This research paper presents a model that aims to optimise the configuration of a lightning protection system (LPS) in the power distribution system and minimise the System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI), a measure of reliability, and the associated cost investment. The proposed lightning electromagnetic transient model considers LPS factors such as feeder shielding, grounding design, and soil types, which affect critical current, flashover rates, SAIFI, and cost. A metaheuristic algorithm, PSOGSA, is used to obtain the optimal solution. The paper's main contribution is exploring grounding schemes and soil resistivity's impact on SAIFI. Using 4 grounding rods arranged in a straight line under the soil with 10 Ωm resistivity reduces grounding resistance and decreases SAIFI from 3.783 int./yr (no LPS) to 0.146 int./yr. Unshielded LPS has no significant effect on critical current for soil resistivity. Four test cases with different cost investments are considered, and numerical simulations are conducted. Shielded LPSs are more sensitive to grounding topologies and soil resistivities, wherein higher investment, with 10 Ωm soil resistivity, SAIFI decreases the most by 73.34%. In contrast, SAIFIs for 1 kΩm and 10 kΩm soil resistivities show minor decreases compared to SAIFIs with no LPS. The study emphasises the importance of considering soil resistivity and investment cost when selecting the optimal LPS configuration for distribution systems, as well as the significance of LPS selection in reducing interruptions to customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future mass loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet represents a major uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Recent studies have highlighted the potential vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric and oceanic changes, but long-term observations inside the ice shelf cavities are rare, especially in East Antarctica. Here, we present new insights from observations from three oceanic moorings below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf from 2009 to 2021. We examine the characteristics of Warm Deep Water (WDW) intrusions across a sill connecting the cavity to the open ocean, and investigate seasonal variability of the circulation and water masses inside the cavity. In autumn, solar-heated, buoyant Antarctic Surface Water (ASW) reaches below the 350 m deep central part of the ice shelf, separating colder Ice Shelf Water from the ice base and affecting the cavity circulation on seasonal timescales. At depth, the occurrence of WDW is associated with the advection of cyclonic eddies across the sill into the cavity. These eddies reach up to the ice base. The warm intrusions occur favorably from January to March and from September to November, and traces of WDW-derived meltwater close to the ice base imply an overturning of these warm intrusions inside the cavity. We suggest that both the offshore thermocline depth and interactions of the Antarctic Slope Current with the ice shelf topography over the continental slope cause this timing. Our findings provide a better understanding of the interplay between shallow ASW and deep WDW inflows for basal melting at Fimbulisen, with implications for the potential vulnerability of the ice shelf to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major outlet glacier in Greenland, lost its protective ice shelf in 2002 and has been speeding up and retreating since. We image its grounding line for the first time with a terrestrial radar interferometer deployed in 2016 and detect its migration at tidal frequencies. The southern half of the glacier develops a floating section (3 km × 3 km) that migrates in phase with the tidal difference, up to a distance of 2.8 km, far more than previously expected. We attribute the migration to kilometer‐scale seawater intrusions, 10–20 cm in height, with the tide. The intrusions reveal that the glacier bed may be up to 800 m deeper than expected on the south side, which illustrates that our knowledge of bed topography remains limited for this glacier. We expect seawater intrusions to cause rapid melt of basal ice and play a major role in the glacier evolution. Plain Language Summary: The transition boundary between grounded glacier ice and floating glacier ice, or grounding line, has never been mapped in much detail on the largest, fastest outlet glaciers of Greenland because available satellite radar imagery does not provide short enough repeat pass data. Here, we use a terrestrial radar interferometer which images the glacier every 2 min to map the grounding line repeatedly with differential interferometry. Surprisingly the glacier develops a small floating section on the south side where the grounding line migrates over considerable distances—0.5 to 2.8 km—during the tidal cycle, which is 10 times farther than previously expected from flotation. We attribute the migration to seawater intrusions over a bed 100–800 m deeper than previously known. Seawater intrusions will carry sufficient ocean heat to melt basal ice vigorously, a factor that has not been incorporated in modeling studies of this glacier. Key Points: We present the first mapping of the grounding line of Jakobshavn Isbr$\ae$, Greenland at ocean tidal frequenciesThe grounding line migrates over kilometers, far more than expected from flotation, which we attribute to kilometer‐size seawater intrusionsSeawater intrusions along a bed several hundred meters deeper than expected must be included in future glacier modeling studies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface melt in East Antarctica is strongly correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, but the spatiotemporal variability of the relationship, and the physical processes responsible for it, have not been examined. Here, using melt flux estimates and climate variables from the RACMO2.3p3 regional climate model, we show that a decreasing SAM index is associated with increased melt in Dronning Maud Land primarily owing to reduced precipitation and greater absorption of solar radiation. Conversely, in Wilkes Land, a decreasing SAM index corresponds to increased melt because of greater incoming longwave radiation from a warmer atmosphere. We also demonstrate that SAM‐melt correlations are strongest in December as the melt season develops, and that the SAM's influence on peak melt intensities in January occurs indirectly through the snowmelt‐albedo feedback. Future work must account for such variability in the physical processes underlying the SAM‐melt relationship to reduce uncertainty in surface melt projections. Plain Language Summary: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index describes the strength and location of the westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere. It has previously been linked to interannual variability in the number of satellite‐observed melt days on the surface of East Antarctica's floating ice shelves. Here, we use melt estimates from a regional climate model adapted for the polar regions to show that the SAM‐melt relationship is also observed for meltwater fluxes, and to identify the influence of the SAM on the different energy sources driving surface melt. We find that a more negative SAM index (weaker westerlies) is associated with higher air temperatures across most of East Antarctica, and leads to increased incoming longwave radiation and sensible heat fluxes in Wilkes Land. In contrast, in Dronning Maud Land (DML), incoming longwave radiation is unaffected by the SAM, leading to net longwave energy losses, and sensible heat fluxes are reduced because of weaker surface winds. Instead, greater melt in DML is driven through increased absorption of solar radiation, owing to reduced precipitation and a darker surface. We also find differences in the strength of the SAM‐melt relationship on both sub‐seasonal and decadal timescales. Key Points: Modeled surface meltwater fluxes on East Antarctic ice shelves are negatively correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indexMelt fluxes increase for a decreasing SAM index owing to reduced precipitation in Dronning Maud Land, and a warmer atmosphere in Wilkes LandThe SAM‐melt relationship is stronger in December than January, highlighting the importance of the snowmelt‐albedo feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated moisture transport over the Antarctic ice sheet can increase snowfall and ice mass. Previous studies used ground‐based observations, reanalysis products, and atmospheric models to evaluate the relationship between extreme moisture transport and snowfall properties. Here, we build on previous studies by combining reanalysis and CloudSat radar snowfall retrievals to examine impacts of extreme moisture intrusions on changes in snowfall frequency and intensity over glacier basins on the Antarctic ice sheet. We examine the impacts of enhanced moisture transport events on snowfall frequency and intensity over two different regions on the Antarctic ice sheet: the Amery Ice Shelf of East Antarctica and the Thwaites and Pine Island glacier basins of West Antarctica. We determine when the median integrated water vapor transport from reanalysis exceeds the 95th percentile within the glacier basins of interest to define enhanced moisture transport events. We then use CloudSat radar snowfall retrievals to evaluate differences between snowfall frequency and intensity during enhanced water vapor transport events compared to the seasonal means for 2007–2010. We find that enhanced moisture transport events over the Amery Ice Shelf and Thwaites and Pine Island glacier basins coincide with higher snowfall frequency and intensity. These enhanced moisture transport events have the potential to alter surface mass balance within glacier basins, with implications for future rates of sea level rise. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale features of the atmosphere can transport large amounts of water vapor over Antarctica. These instances of enhanced moisture transport can precede enhanced snowfall events. Prior studies have examined this relationship using ground‐based observations and modeling results. Our study uses spaceborne radar observations to show that enhanced moisture transport corresponds to elevated snowfall frequency and rates within the Amundsen Sea and the Amery Ice Shelf regions. This work shows that the increased snowfall penetrates far inland, from the coast and to the interior of the ice sheets. Key Points: Enhanced moisture transport events correspond to CloudSat observations of increased snowfall frequencies and rates over Antarctic regionsObservations indicate that increased snowfall during extreme moisture transport events persists deep into the interior of ice sheetsEnhanced moisture transport events have the potential for elevated snowfall accumulation over Antarctic glacier basins [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) models have been used to estimate crevasse depths in glaciers and to represent iceberg calving in ice sheet models. However, existing LEFM models assume glacier ice to be homogeneous and utilise the mechanical properties of fully consolidated ice. Using depth-invariant properties is not realistic, as the process of compaction from unconsolidated snow to firn to glacial ice is dependent on several environmental factors, typically leading to a lesser density and Young's modulus in upper surface strata. New analytical solutions for longitudinal stress profiles are derived, using depth-varying properties based on borehole data from the Ronne ice shelf, and used in an LEFM model to determine the maximum penetration depths of an isolated crevasse in grounded glaciers and floating ice shelves. These maximum crevasse depths are compared to those obtained for homogeneous glacial ice, showing the importance of including the effect of the upper unconsolidated firn layers on crevasse propagation. The largest reductions in penetration depth ratio were observed for shallow grounded glaciers, with variations in Young's modulus being more influential than firn density (a maximum difference in crevasse depth of 46 % and 20 % respectively); whereas, firn density changes resulted in an increase in penetration depth for thinner floating ice shelves (95 %–188 % difference in crevasse depth between constant and depth-varying properties). Thus, our study shows that the firn layer can increase the vulnerability of ice shelves to fracture and calving, highlighting the importance of considering depth-dependent firn-layer material properties in LEFM models for estimating crevasse penetration depths and predicting rift propagation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice shelf calving constitutes roughly half of the total mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet. Although much attention is paid to calving of giant tabular icebergs, these events are relatively rare. More frequent, smaller-scale calving events likely play an important role in the ice shelf frontal dynamics. Here, we investigate the role of bending stresses at the ice shelf front in driving calving on the scale 100 m – 1 km, perpendicular to the ice edge. We focus in particular on how buoyant underwater 'feet' that protrude beyond the above-water ice cliff may cause tensile stresses at the base of the ice and ultimately lead to fracture. Indirect and anecdotal observations of such feet at the Ross Ice Shelf front suggest that this process may be widespread. We consider satellite observations, together with an elastic beam model and a parameterization of frontal wave erosion to estimate the size and frequency of such calving events. Our results suggest that foot-induced mass loss at Ross Ice Shelf may cause up to 25 % of the total frontal ablation. However, stresses induced through this process are likely not sufficient to initiate crevassing but rather act to propagate existing crevasses. In addition, the relatively strong ice thickness dependence of the frontal uplift suggests an important role for internal bending moments due to temperature gradients in the ice. The highly variable environment, irregularity of pre-existing crevasse spacing, and complex rheology of the ice continue to pose challenges in better constraining the drivers behind the observed deformations and resulting calving rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial fjords often contain ice mélange, a frozen conglomeration of icebergs, brash ice, and sea ice, that have been postulated to influence both glacier dynamics and fjord circulation through coupled mechanical and thermodynamic processes. Ice mélange meltwater can alter stratification of the water column by releasing cool, fresh water across a range of depths in the upper layer of the fjord. This meltwater input can subsequently modify the depth at which the subglacial discharge plume reaches neutral buoyancy and therefore the underlying buoyancy-driven fjord circulation and heat exchange with warm ocean shelf waters. Despite a spate of recent modelling studies exploring these proposed feedbacks, we lack in situ observations quantifying changes to the water column induced by ice mélange meltwater. Here we use a novel dataset collected before and after the melt, breakup, and down-fjord transport of an ephemeral ice mélange in front of Kangilliup Sermia (Rink Isbræ) to directly investigate the extent to which ice mélange meltwater can modify glacier-adjacent water properties. We find that even a short-lived ice mélange (4 days) can cause substantial cooling (0.18 °C) and freshening (0.25 g kg-1) of the water column that leads to stratification change down to the depth of the outflowing discharge plume. We compare our observations to an adjacent fjord, Kangerlussuup Sermia, where ice mélange seldom forms in the summertime, and show that the presence or absence of ice mélange melt creates fundamental differences in their upper layer hydrography. These observations provide critical constraints for recent modelling studies that have suggested ice mélange meltwater needs to be included in ocean circulation models for glaciers with deep grounding lines and high ice fluxes, which are precisely the glaciers exhibiting the largest magnitude terminus retreats at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of water pressure on the vertical front of an ice shelf has been shown to cause downward bending of the edge if the ice has vertically uniform viscosity. Satellite lidar observations show upward bending of shelf edges for some areas with cold surface temperatures. A simple analysis shows that upward bending of shelf edges can result from vertical variations in ice viscosity. Such variations are an expected consequence of the temperature dependence of ice viscosity and temperature variations through a shelf. Resultant vertical variations in horizontal stress produce an internal bending moment that can counter the bending moment due to the shelf-front water pressure. Assuming a linear profile of ice temperature with depth and an Arrhenius relation between temperature and strain rate allows derivation of an analytic expression for internal bending moments. The effect of a power-law relation between stress difference and strain rate is also included analytically. The key ice rheologic parameter affecting shelf edge bending is the ratio of the activation energy, Q , and the power-law exponent, n. For cold ice surface temperatures and large values of Q/n , upward bending is expected, while for warm surface temperatures and small values of Q/n downward bending is expected. The amplitude of bending should scale with the ice shelf thickness to the power 3/2 and this is approximately consistent with a recent analysis of shelf edge deflections for the Ross Ice Shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel and computationally efficient subglacial hydrological model that represents in a unified way both hard and soft bed rheologies as well as a dynamic switch between efficient and inefficient subglacial discharge. The subglacial model is dynamically linked to a regularized Coulomb friction law, allowing for a coupled evolution of the ice sheet on decadal to centennial time scales. The hydrological model is tested on an idealized marine ice sheet and subsequently applied to the drainage basin of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, that is composed of a heterogeneous (hard/soft) bed. We find that subglacial hydrology embedded in the sliding law accelerates the grounding line retreat of Thwaites Glacier under present-day climatic conditions. Highest retreat rates are obtained for hard bed configurations and/or inefficient drainage systems.We show that the sensitivity is particularly driven by large gradients in effective pressure, more so than the value of effective pressure itself in the vicinity of the grounding line. Clearly, a better understanding of the subglacial system is needed with respect to both the spatial and temporal variability in effective pressure and bed rheological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water is melting Thwaites Glacier at the base of its ice shelf and at the grounding zone, contributing to significant ice retreat. Accelerating ice loss has been observed since the 1970s; however, it is unclear when this phase of significant melting initiated. We analyzed the marine sedimentary record to reconstruct Thwaites Glacier's history from the early Holocene to present. Marine geophysical surveys were carried out along the floating ice-shelf margin to identify core locations from various geomorphic settings. We use sedimentological data and physical properties to define sedimentary facies at seven core sites. Glaciomarine sediment deposits reveal that the grounded ice in the Amundsen Sea Embayment had already retreated to within ~45 km of the modern grounding zone prior to ca. 9,400 y ago. Sediments deposited within the past 100+ y record abrupt changes in environmental conditions. On seafloor highs, these shifts document ice-shelf thinning initiating at least as early as the 1940s. Sediments recovered from deep basins reflect a transition from ice proximal to slightly more distal conditions, suggesting ongoing grounding-zone retreat since the 1950s. The timing of ice-shelf unpinning from the seafloor for Thwaites Glacier coincides with similar records from neighboring Pine Island Glacier. Our work provides robust new evidence that glacier retreat in the Amundsen Sea was initiated in the mid-twentieth century, likely associated with climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Field and remote sensing studies suggest that ice mélange influences glacier-fjord systems by exerting stresses on glacier termini and releasing large amounts of freshwater into fjords. The broader impacts of ice mélange over long time scales are unknown, in part due to a lack of suitable ice mélange flow models. Previous efforts have included modifying existing viscous ice shelf models, despite the fact that ice mélange is fundamentally a granular material, and running computationally expensive discrete element simulations. Here, we draw on laboratory studies of granular materials, which exhibit viscous flow when stresses greatly exceed the yield point, plug flow when the stresses approach the yield point, and stress transfer via force chains. By implementing the nonlocal granular fluidity rheology into a depth- and width-integrated stress balance equation, we produce a numerical model of ice mélange flow that is consistent with our understanding of well-packed granular materials and that is suitable for long time-scale simulations. For parallel-sided fjords, the model exhibits two possible steady state solutions. When there is no calving of new icebergs or melting of previously calved icebergs, the ice mélange is pushed down fjord by the advancing glacier terminus, the velocity is constant along the length of the fjord, and the thickness profile is exponential. When calving and melting are included, the ice mélange evolves to another steady state in which its location is fixed relative to the fjord walls, the thickness profile is relatively steep, and the flow is extensional. For the latter case, the model predicts that the steady-state ice mélange buttressing force depends on the surface and basal melt rates through an inverse power law relationship, decays roughly exponentially with both fjord width and gradient in fjord width, and increases with the iceberg calving flux. The increase in buttressing force with the calving flux, which depends on glacier thickness, appears to occur more rapidly than the force required to prevent the capsize of full-glacier-thickness icebergs, suggesting that glaciers with high calving fluxes may be more strongly influenced by ice mélange than those with small fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regular and robust mapping of grounding lines is essential for various applications related to the mass balance of marine ice sheets and glaciers, especially in Antarctica and Greenland. With Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) interferograms, it is possible to accurately capture the tide-induced bending of the ice shelf at a continent-wide scale and a temporal resolution of a few days. While current processing chains typically automatically generate differential interferograms, grounding lines are still primarily identified and delineated on the interferograms by a human operator. This method is time-consuming and inefficient, considering the volume of data from current and future SAR missions. We developed a pipeline that utilizes the Holistically-Nested Edge Detection (HED) neural network to delineate DInSAR interferograms automatically. We trained HED in a supervised manner using 421 manually annotated grounding lines for outlet glaciers and ice shelves on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We also assessed the contribution of non-interferometric features like elevation, ice velocity and differential tide levels towards the delineation task. Our best-performing network generated grounding lines with a median distance of 186 m from the manual delineations. Additionally, we applied the network to generate grounding lines for undelineated interferograms, demonstrating the network's generalization capabilities and potential to generate high-resolution temporal and spatial mappings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice rises or ice rumples act as ice-shelf pinning points that can have an important role in regulating the ice discharge of marine outlet glaciers. As an example, the observed recent gradual ungrounding of the ice shelf of West Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier from its last pinning points likely diminished the buttressing effect of the ice shelf and thus contributed to the destabilization of the outlet. Here we use an idealized experimental setting to simulate the response of an Antarctic-type, instability-prone marine outlet glacier to a successive ungrounding of its ice shelf from a topographic high and a subsequent re-grounding. We show that the glacier retreat down the landward down-sloping (retrograde) bed, induced by the loss in pinning-point buttressing, can be unstable and irreversible given a relatively deep subglacial bed depression. In this case, glacier retreat and re-advance show a hysteretic behavior and if the bed depression is sufficiently deep, the glacier does not recover from but remains locked in its collapsed state. Conversely, reversibility requires a sufficiently shallow bed depression. Based on a simple flux balance analysis, we argue that the combination of a deep bed depression and limited ice-shelf buttressing hampers grounding-line re-advance due to the dominant and highly non-linear influence of the bed depth on the ice discharge across the grounding line. We conclude that outlets that rest on a deep bed depression and are weakly buttressed, such as Thwaites Glacier, are more susceptible to abrupt and irreversible retreat than stronger buttressed glaciers on more moderate retrograde slope, such as Pine Island Glacier. In particular, our results suggest that the wide and deep marine bed depression in the interior of Thwaites Glacier's drainage basin might promote potential future unstable retreat and also represent a strong limitation for a possible re-advance of the glacier in case it would collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We observe the evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022, which was in part triggered by warm atmospheric conditions and strong offshore winds. This evacuation of sea ice was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and dynamics of a subset of the ocean-terminating glaciers in the region. We show using satellite measurements that, following a decade of gradual slow-down, Hektoria, Green, and Crane glaciers sped up by approximately 20 %–50 % between February and the end of 2022, each increasing in speed by more than 100 ma-1. Circumstantially, this is attributable to their transition into tidewater glaciers following the loss of their ice shelves after the landfast sea ice evacuation. However, a question remains as to whether the landfast sea ice could have influenced the dynamics of these glaciers, or the stability of their ice shelves, through a buttressing effect akin to that of confined ice shelves on grounded ice streams. We show, with a series of diagnostic modelling experiments, that direct landfast sea ice buttressing had a negligible impact on the dynamics of the grounded ice streams. Furthermore, we suggest that the loss of landfast sea ice buttressing could have impacted the dynamics of the rheologically weak ice shelves, in turn diminishing their stability over time; however, the accompanying shifts in the distributions of resistive stress within the ice shelves would have been minor. This indicates that this loss of buttressing by landfast sea ice is likely to have been a secondary process in the ice shelf disaggregation compared to, for example, increased ocean swell or the drivers of the initial landfast sea ice disintegration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 79° North Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsbrae, 79NG) is one of three remaining glaciers with a floating tongue in Greenland. Although the glacier has been considered exceptionally stable in the past, earlier studies have shown that the ice tongue has thinned in recent decades. By conducting high-resolution ground-based and airborne radar measurements in conjunction with satellite remote-sensing observations, we find significant changes in the geometry of 79NG. In the vicinity of the grounding line, a 500 m high subglacial channel has grown since ∼ 2010 and has caused surface lowering of up to 7.6 m a -1. Our results show extreme basal melt rates exceeding 150 m a -1 over a period of 17 d within a distance of 5 km from the grounding line, where the ice has thinned by 32 % since 1998. We find a heterogeneous distribution of melt rates, likely due to variability in water column thickness and channelization of the ice base. Time series of melt rates show a decrease in basal melting since 2018, indicating an inflow of colder water into the cavity below 79NG. We discuss the processes that have led to the changes in geometry and conclude that the inflow of warm ocean currents has led to the extensive thinning of 79NG's floating ice tongue near the grounding line over the last 2 decades. In contrast, we hypothesize that the growth of the channel results from increased subglacial discharge due to a considerably enlarged area of summer surface melt due to the warming of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice shelf dynamics and morphology play an important role in the stability of floating bodies of ice by driving fracturing that can lead to calving, in turn impacting the ability of the ice shelf to buttress upstream grounded ice. Following a 2016 calving event at the Nansen Ice Shelf (NIS), East Antarctica, we collected airborne and ground-based radar data to map ice thickness across the shelf. We combine these data with published satellite-derived data to examine the spatial variations in ice shelf draft, the cause and effects of ice shelf strain rates, and the possibility that a suture zone may be channelizing ocean water and altering patterns of sub-ice-shelf melt and freeze-on. We also use our datasets to assess limitations that may arise from relying on hydrostatic-balance equations applied to ice surface elevation to determine ice draft morphology. We find that the Nansen Ice Shelf has a highly variable basal morphology driven primarily by the formation of basal fractures near the onset of the ice shelf suture zone. This morphology is reflected in the ice shelf strain rates but not in the calculated hydrostatic-balance thickness, which underestimates the scale of variability at the ice shelf base. Enhanced melt rates near the ice shelf terminus and in steep regions of the channelized suture zone, along with relatively thin ice in the suture zone, appear to represent vulnerable areas in the NIS. This morphology, combined with ice dynamics, induce strain that has led to the formation of transverse fractures within the suture zone, resulting in large-scale calving events. Similar transverse fractures at other Antarctic ice shelves may also be driven by highly variable morphology, and predicting their formation and evolution could aid projections of ice shelf stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to diminishing ice shelves in the Arctic, no doubt caused by climate change, previously unnavigable marine spaces are opening up, which in turn may provide new maritime routes. The shipping and maritime industry may capitalise on these routes more in the future as they provide shorter sailing times, and may assist with increasing oil and gas exploration and extraction in the region. However, increased maritime expansion in the Arctic comes with a number of unique risks and hazards for the insured and insurer. This opinion therefore seeks to discuss the implications of the multitude of risks that are associated with Arctic shipping from a marine insurance perspective and to highlight some of the gaps in existing regulatory frameworks. It is argued that marine insurers require improved data and risk management methodologies in order to better calculate the premiums of Hull & Machinery (H&M) and Protection & Indemnity (P&I) insurance policies for ships travelling through the Arctic. Until such time as these risks can be adequately assessed, evaluated, and managed by insurers; which of course is extremely difficult, due to the extreme environment, the unpredictability of climate change, a lack of key data, and the complexity of the various scenarios that can unfold in the Arctic environment, the practical viability of Arctic shipping remains doubtful. To date, insurers have paid out more in ship damage that has occurred in the Arctic than they have collected in premiums, which in itself is problematic. This situation may change in the future if Arctic shipping grows, and if it does the insurance market will no doubt, need to respond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Icebergs modulate the effective location of freshwater input from ice sheets into the ocean and therefore play an important role for the climate, especially during times of increased ice discharge (e.g., Heinrich events). None of the models participating in the Paleo Modeling Intercomparison Project simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or the last deglaciation included icebergs. Here, we present a newly developed dynamic/thermodynamic iceberg module that was specifically designed to be incorporated in climate models used for long‐term climate simulations with interactive ice sheets. In contrast to the widely used Lagrangian iceberg models, it is formulated in an Eulerian framework. This simplifies coupling to ocean models and enhances computational efficiency for glacial climates. In a set of sensitivity experiments, where the module was implemented into an Earth System Model, we validate the model for present‐day climate conditions and test its sensitivity to key parameters. Further, we investigate the effect of iceberg hosing on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as compared to traditional freshwater hosing. Varying the hosing rate slowly in time yields a good approximation of the hysteresis curve of the AMOC. We find that the sensitivity of the AMOC to iceberg hosing is stronger than to freshwater hosing in the same ocean point, but weaker as compared to a latitude belt forcing in the North Atlantic. This emphasizes the 2e necessity to include interactive icebergs in long‐term coupled climate simulations to realistically represent melt patterns and the response of the AMOC to freshwater input from melting ice sheets. Plain Language Summary: Icebergs transport frozen water from calving ice sheets far away from the coasts and release meltwater along their path while slowly melting. The sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depends on the location of the meltwater input. As the transport and melt of icebergs determine the location of meltwater input into the ocean, it is obvious that icebergs are an important component of the climate system. Unfortunately, they are not included in most climate models, partly as they are computational quite expensive. Existing iceberg modules can follow groups of icebergs, and may be prohibitively computationally expensive when applied on very long timescales. Here we introduce a different approach. We do not follow each group of icebergs but describe the iceberg distribution using equations for concentrations and different size classes. This formulation is adequate for climate purposes, and simplifies the incorporation into ocean models. The difference in the climate response to iceberg calving and the widely used freshwater hosing is relatively large. This emphasizes the importance of including interactive iceberg modules into climate models for a realistic simulation of ice discharge events. Key Points: A new Eulerian iceberg module for climate studies is introducedThe Eulerian approach simplifies the incorporation of icebergs into standard ocean general circulation modelsExperiments with a comprehensive climate model demonstrate that iceberg discharge has different impact on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation compared to freshwater [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming continues to exert unprecedented impacts on marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) are proven powerful in predicting habitat distribution for marine demersal species under climate change impacts. The Antarctic toothfish, Dissostichus mawsoni (Norman 1937), an ecologically and commercially significant species, is endemic to the Southern Ocean. Utilizing occurrence records and environmental data, we developed an ensemble model that integrates various modelling techniques. This model characterizes species-environment relationships and predicts current and future fishable habitats of D. mawsoni under four climate change scenarios. Ice thickness, depth and mean water temperature were the top three important factors in affecting the distribution of D. mawsoni. The ensemble prediction suggests an overall expansion of fishable habitats, potentially due to the limited occurrence records from fishery-dependent surveys. Future projections indicate varying degrees of fishable habitat loss in large areas of the Amery Ice Shelf's eastern and western portions. Suitable fishable habitats, including the spawning grounds in the seamounts around the northern Ross Sea and the coastal waters of the Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea, were persistent under present and future environmental conditions, highlighting the importance to protect these climate refugia from anthropogenic disturbance. Though data deficiency existed in this study, our predictions can provide valuable information for designing climate-adaptive development and conservation strategies in maintaining the sustainability of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic coastal polynyas are hotspots of biological production with intensive springtime phytoplankton blooms that strongly depend on meltwater‐induced restratification in the upper part of the water column. However, the fundamental physics that determine spatial inhomogeneity of the spring restratification remain unclear. Here, we investigate how different meltwaters affect springtime restratification and thus phytoplankton bloom in Antarctic coastal polynyas. A high‐resolution coupled ice‐shelf/sea‐ice/ocean model is used to simulate an idealized coastal polynya similar to the Terra Nova Bay Polynya, Ross Sea, Antarctica. To evaluate the contribution of various meltwater sources, we conduct sensitivity simulations altering physical factors such as alongshore winds, ice shelf basal melt, and surface freshwater runoff. Our findings indicate that sea ice meltwater from offshore is the primary buoyancy source of polynya near‐surface restratification, particularly in the outer‐polynya region where chlorophyll concentration tends to be high. Downwelling‐favorable alongshore winds can direct offshore sea ice away and prevent sea ice meltwater from entering the polynya region. Although the ice shelf basal meltwater can ascend to the polynya surface, much of it is mixed vertically over the water column and confined horizontally to a narrow coastal region, and thus does not contribute significantly to the polynya near‐surface restratification. Surface runoff from ice shelf surface melt could contribute greatly to the polynya near‐surface restratification. Nearby ice tongues and headlands strongly influence the restratification through modifying polynya circulation and meltwater transport pathways. Results of this study can help explain observed spatiotemporal variability in restratification and associated biological productivity in Antarctic coastal polynyas. Plain Language Summary: Antarctic coastal polynyas are key habitats of regional marine ecosystems. During spring, the upper part of the polynya water column restratifies and forms a near‐surface layer of low‐salinity water. This process is important for springtime phytoplankton blooms, as the stable surface layer keeps phytoplankton in the well‐lit region and enhances phytoplankton growth. Employing high‐resolution models of idealized coastal polynyas, this work unravels the spatial variation of restratification processes in a polynya and investigates the physical factors that affect them. It shows that sea ice meltwater from offshore regions is the foremost contributor to the near‐surface restratification in a polynya. Meanwhile, low‐salinity water from basal melt of a neighboring floating ice shelf contributes little to the near‐surface restratification in a polynya because much of the meltwater mixes vertically with ambient waters as it rises. This is in contrast to the sea ice meltwater being directly injected into the ocean surface. Freshwater runoff from the surface melt of an ice shelf is also directly injected into the polynya surface. However, due to earth rotation, it is often confined in a narrow coastal region next to the ice shelf and thus does not contribute to restratification in most of the polynya area. Key Points: Biologically‐important springtime near‐surface restratification in Antarctic coastal polynyas varies spatially within a polynyaSea ice meltwater from regions offshore of the polynya is the primary buoyancy source of polynya near‐surface restratificationIce shelf basal meltwater mixes over the water column during its ascent and contributes little to polynya near‐surface restratification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ice shelves in the Bellingshausen Sea are melting and thinning rapidly due to modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) intrusions carrying heat toward ice‐shelf cavities. Observations are, however, sparse in time and space, and extensive model‐data comparisons have never been possible. Here, using a circulation model of the region and ship‐based observations, we show that the simulated water mass distributions in several troughs traversing mCDW inflows are in good agreement with observations, implying that our model has the skills to simulate hydrographic structures as well as on‐shelf ocean circulations. It takes 7.9 and 11.7 months for mCDW to travel to the George VI Ice Shelf cavities through the Belgica and Marguerite troughs, respectively. Ice‐shelf melting is mainly caused by mCDW intrusions along the Belgica and Marguerite troughs, with the heat transport through the former being ∼2.8 times larger than that through the latter. The mCDW intrusions toward the George VI Ice Shelf show little seasonal variability, while those toward the Venable Ice Shelf show seasonal variability, with higher velocities in summer likely caused by coastal trapped waves. We also conduct particle experiments tracking glacial meltwater. After 2 years of model integration, ∼33% of the released particles are located in the Amundsen Sea, supporting a linkage between Bellingshausen Sea ice‐shelf meltwater and Amundsen Sea upper ocean hydrography. Plain Language Summary: The Bellingshausen Sea Ice Shelves have been affected by high ice‐shelf melt and ice‐loss rates in Antarctica. The reason for the ice loss is the presence of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) over the continental shelf, which intrudes into ice‐shelf cavities. Recently, studies combining observations and models have significantly advanced our understanding of Ice‐Ocean interactions around Antarctica. For example, in the Amundsen Sea, the region neighboring the Bellingshausen Sea and contributing the most to Antarctic glacial ice loss, such an approach has revealed the drivers and pathways of ocean heat intrusions as well as the impact of glacial meltwater on the Antarctic coastal circulation. We follow this approach and evaluate our ocean model by comparing it with ship‐based and satellite‐based observations. Using this model simulation, we show that the simulated mCDW intrudes from the continental shelf break toward ice‐shelf cavities mainly through two deep cross‐shelf troughs. The glacial meltwater is transported by the westward Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC) flowing into the Amundsen Sea. The mCDW inflow and AACC in the coastal area show seasonal variabilities with higher velocities in the summer, which are likely caused by coastal trapped waves. Key Points: The simulated hydrographic structures over the Bellingshausen Sea continental shelf region are in good agreement with observationsThe warm water intrusions toward the Venable Ice Shelf show peaks of higher velocities in summer, likely caused by coastal trapped wavesGlacial meltwater from about 33% of the area underneath the BS ice shelves flows into the Amundsen Sea within 2 years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method is presented to calculate the vibrations of an ice shelf floating in shallow water under different boundary conditions. One condition is that there is no flux, which reduces all calculations and the other is that there is no pressure at the seaward end of the ice shelf. The effect of these boundary conditions is investigated in detail, and the modes of vibration are also determined. Motion simulations of the system are presented for the potential velocity of the water and the vertical displacement of the ice shelf. These are found through a numerical method, which reduces all calculations to matrix multiplication. The underlying motion is shown to be very complex and difficult to interpret from single-point response measurements. The motion of more realistic ice shelves can be expected to be even more complicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Titan is an ocean world with a dense atmosphere, where photochemistry produces complex organic molecules that fall to the surface. An important astrobiological question is whether this material can mix with water and form molecules of biological interest. Large impacts heat the moon's subsurface and create liquid water melt pools. A recent study investigated impacts into Titan's clathrate‐covered ice shell. Methane clathrates are stable at Titan's surface conditions and have low thermal conductivity, making them efficient insulators that can lead to steep thermal gradients and a thin stagnant lid. The authors showed that the clathrate layer thickness primarily influences the melt distribution, while its volume is governed by the impactor size. Here, we investigate the fate of melt formed during an impact into a clathrate‐covered ice shell. Our results show two different behaviors: in cases when less melt is produced, the subsurface melt pool remains close to the surface and freezes on timescales ≲25 kyr; in cases when larger volumes of melt are produced, a downward‐oriented transport of the molten material occurs. As it descends, part of the melt freezes but some may reach the ocean within a few kyr under certain conditions; vertical impacts, high surface porosity, low viscosity, and tidal heating all favor this surface‐to‐ocean exchange. While providing insights on parameters that allow a subsurface melt pool to remain liquid beneath a Selk‐sized crater for a few kyr, this study suggests that Dragonfly may be able to sample melt deposits where organics reacted with liquid water to produce biomolecules. Plain Language Summary: Titan, Saturn's largest moon, harbors a subsurface ocean beneath its ice shell. The moon also has an atmosphere, which is rich in large organic molecules that settle onto its surface. When atmospheric methane reacts with surface water ice, it forms methane clathrate. A clathrate layer atop Titan's ice shell affects the formation of Titan's impact craters, as it is both stronger than ice and a better insulator. Here, we study the effect of this clathrate layer on the formation and subsequent fate of melt pools produced by impacts on Titan. We investigate whether the melt descends through the ice shell to reach the ocean or remains near the surface and freezes. Our results show only a limited range of scenarios where impact melt reaches the ocean. In the majority of models, impact melt freezes near the surface within short timescales, ranging from a few thousands to tens of thousands of years. This implies that surface organic molecules may have interacted with subsurface melt pools. These results provide a positive outlook for NASA's Dragonfly mission, which will explore Titan's Selk crater in search of organic materials that have reacted with water to potentially form molecules of biological interest. Key Points: We studied the evolution of impact melt pools in Titan's ice shell using numerical simulations of two‐phase thermal convectionWhile most melt pools never reach the ocean, we observe surface‐to‐ocean exchange in a small part of the investigated parameter spaceOur results suggest that Dragonfly may be able to sample melt deposits where organics reacted with liquid water to produce biomolecules [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite their recognized significance on global climate and extensive research efforts, the mechanism(s) driving Heinrich Events remain(s) a subject of debate. Here, we use the 3D thermo-mechanically coupled Glacial Systems Model (GSM) to examine Hudson Strait ice stream surge cycling as well as the role of 3 factors previously hypothesized to play a critical role in Heinrich events: ice shelves, glacial isostatic adjustment, and sub-surface ocean temperature forcings. In contrast to all previous modeling studies examining HEs, the GSM uses a transient last glacial cycle climate forcing, global visco-elastic glacial isostatic adjustment model, and sub-glacial hydrology model. The results presented here are based on a high-variance sub-ensemble retrieved from North American history matching for the last glacial cycle. Over our comparatively wide sampling of the potential parameter space (52 ensemble parameters for climate forcing and process uncertainties), we find two modes of Hudson Strait ice streaming: classic binge-purge versus near continuous ice streaming with occasional shutdowns and subsequent surge onset overshoot. Our model results indicate that large ice shelves covering the Labrador Sea during the last glacial cycle only occur when extreme calving restrictions are applied. The otherwise minor ice shelves provide insignificant buttressing for the Hudson Strait ice stream. While sub-surface ocean temperature forcing leads to minor differences regarding surge characteristics, glacial isostatic adjustment does have a significant impact. Given input uncertainties, the strongest controls on ice stream surge cycling are the poorly constrained deep geothermal heat flux under Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait and the basal drag law. Decreasing the geothermal heat flux within available constraints and/or using a Coulomb sliding law instead of a Weertman-type power law leads to a shift from the near-continuous streaming mode to the binge-purge mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheets contribution to sea level over the 21st century. It quantified uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate scenario, forcing climate model and uncertain model parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model, alongside new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively explore uncertain ice sheet processes. These results contributed to Antarctic projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). The BISICLES experiments presented here show the important interplay between surface mass balance forcing and ocean driven melt, with high warming, high accumulation forcing conditions leading to mass gain (negative sea level contribution) under low sensitivity to ocean driven melt. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]