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The retirement of old workers increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and health concerns are considered to be a critical factor. To understand the effect of pure health concerns during the pandemic, we analyze the impact of the aggregate health shock on retirement decisions using a life cycle model. The aggregate health shock changes the economy from the normal state to the pandemic state, where the probability of adverse idiosyncratic health shock increases, especially if agents are working. Simulation results suggest that the shock accelerates the retirement of agents aged over 60. The increase in retirement is significant even though the shock is expected to be temporary. Also, the effect hinges on the assumption that working poses a greater risk of receiving a negative health shock than retiring. Even accounting for the large income and wealth changes that US households experienced in 2020, a counterfactual experiment suggests that the aggregate health shock plays a prominent role in increasing retirement.

This study investigates regional housing market connectedness among the 16 first-tier administrative divisions in Korea and 25 districts in Seoul, the capital city. Time-varying parameter vector au...

We empirically investigate the effect of financial institution-targeted macroprudential policies on firms, using a comprehensive macroprudential policy dataset and corporate panel data across 29 countries. We find that the tightening of macroprudential measures persistently curbs the leverage growth of firms, while there is no indication that the loosening of the measures is related to the increase in leverage growth. We also find that this effect on leverage is heterogeneous across firms, as net macroprudential policy actions reduce the procyclicality of leverage more significantly for small firms and firms with high leverage. Also, we estimate the effect of macroprudential policies on firm value to evaluate potential policy trade-offs as the policies restrict the firms' access to credit during economic booms while protecting them from future financial crises. The effect of macroprudential policies on firm value is generally positive despite the policies' restrictive nature. Further, the effect on firm value is heterogeneous depending on firm characteristics: the positive effect becomes stronger as firms are less leveraged; but this positive effect is weaker for firms that grow faster, suggesting potential costs of macroprudential policies for these firms.

This study analyzes the overall and time-varying effects of global and domestic uncertainty on the Korean economy by estimating constant parameter and time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models. Global and Korea-specific uncertainty are measured using the method proposed by Mumtaz and Theodoridis (2017). A rise in both the uncertainty measures has an adverse impact on the Korean economy by lowering stock market returns and output growth, and by creating inflation caused by currency depreciation. Quantitatively, the domestic uncertainty shock exercises a larger effect on the Korean economy than the global uncertainty shock, as the former uncertainty shock accounts for about one-fifth of output variation and the latter accounts for about one-tenth. Regarding time-varying effects, substantial increases in domestic uncertainty during the Asian Financial Crisis and global uncertainty during the Global Financial Crisis explain a significant part of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea during those periods. This is because of the increased volatility of uncertainty shocks during these periods, rather than a structural change in the way these shocks affect the economy.

We discuss the macroeconomic effects of asset-based reserve requirements (ABRR) in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In contrast to the conventional reserve requirement system, ABRR impose reserve requirements on financial institutions’ asset holdings. The policy can be used for macro prudential purposes to reduce pro-cyclicality of financial institutions. Using a financial friction New Keynesian model based on Meh and Moran ( 2010 ), we show that ABRR can be a more effective instrument in the presence of sector-specific shocks than the Basel-III type countercyclical capital buffer. The reason is that the former policy can adjust the asset return of the specific sector hit by the shock, whereas the latter does not have such sector-specific treatment.

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model, including a financial accelerator and the search and matching framework in labor markets, for the Korean economy, using the Bayesian technique. The estimated model shows that the recent sluggishness in GDP growth can be explained by slow technology growth, and the decline in CPI inflation is affected by a falling markup in domestic homogeneous goods production and a negative intertemporal consumption preference. Although wages, unemployment, and total labor hours are influenced by various factors, households' weak bargaining power causes a slow recovery in wages, while pushing the unemployment rate down. There was also a spillover from non-big-5 to big-5 firms during the global financial crisis, while monetary and fiscal policy has been mostly conservative in the post-crisis period.

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and non-EPU global uncertainty measures exhibit heterogeneous behavior, especially in 2010s. Using firm-level data from 36 countries, we estimate the effect of global uncertainty on corporate investment in 1997–2016. Eleven global uncertainty measures, including global EPU, are employed to encompass macro, micro, and higher-order dimensions of uncertainty. We find different effect of EPU and non-EPU global uncertainty measures on investment. Only EPU measures negatively affect investment, while non-EPU measures have positive effects, which suggests a possible first-order implication of EPU.

We estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with various financial frictions and analyze how well the model explains the Great Recession. Predictive analysis shows that the model can only slightly better explain the large deviation from trend during the crisis relative to a model without financial frictions. Specifically, the risk premium shock, which is a shock to the external finance premium of the entrepreneurs׳ leverage, explains the largest part of the investment downfall during the crisis. However, the ‘balance sheet’ channel of financial frictions in the model, which structurally links balance sheet conditions of financial intermediaries and nonfinancial borrowers to their borrowing rates, is estimated to be weak. We examine alternative prior specifications for how the financial frictions enter the model and continue to find a limited role for these frictions. Rolling-window estimation provides evidence for substantial time variation in parameters governing financial frictions. We conclude that the well-known financial frictions studied in this paper are not able to explain the financial crisis in a linearized and estimated model.

The Korean government implemented money market reform after the global financial crisis, aiming to develop the repurchase agreement (RP, repo) market. In this article, I analyze the reform and its effects on money markets. Results show that the reform strengthened the functionality of the RP market and the monetary policy transmission channel to it. The error correction model indicates that although the adjustments to the equilibrium occurred through the call rate during the global financial crisis, they were processed through the RP rate in later periods. The ability of the RP rate to inform market liquidity conditions has improved.

During the Great Recession, the U.S. economy witnessed a substantial rise in part-time employment for a sustained period. We extend the New Keynesian unemployment model by Gali et al. (2012) to allow substitutions between full-time and part-time labor, and estimate the model’s parameters by using the Bayesian method. In our model, households and firms can optimally allocate full-time and part-time labor, and disturbances exist in part-time labor supply (household disutility from part-time labor) and part-time labor demand (firms’ efficiency to use part-time labor). As for the Great Recession, the initial increase in part-time employment at the outset of the financial crisis is mostly explained by the rise of the risk premia; the persistently high level of part-time employment in the later period is mainly explained by an exogenous increase in part-time labor supply. A part-time labor supply shock also explains a significant portion of slow recovery in the gross wage during the recession, as the shock lowers the part-time wage and the proportion of full-time workers in total employment. Notably, the results from our model suggest that though the transition from full-time to part-time jobs contributed to mitigating the sharp contraction in total employment and labor force during the Great Recession, it played only a limited role in relieving recessionary pressure.

Most previous studies have shown that push factors have had a greater impact on capital outflows in emerging economies than pull factors. Meanwhile, in May 2018, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the controversy over capital movements to emerging economies after the global financial crisis. Powell said the inflows of capital into emerging economies are unlikely to have been caused by the Fed's interest rate policy. Powell's speech contains "implied" warnings that the US monetary policy is not a triggering force of a capital outflow in emerging economies. This is why Powell’s speech is adding to the difficulty of policy responses in emerging countries. This, in turn, suggests that it is necessary to check the determinants of global capital flows. In addition, the impact of US monetary policy on Korea's financial markets and capital outflows needs to be analyzed in depth. In this paper, the discussion of push (external) vs. pull (internal) factors of capital flow is examined using panel data of 47 countries. Our empirical results show that the push and pull factors determining capital flows to advanced economies and emerging market economies are different. This study also analyzes the impact of the normalization of US monetary policy on the domestic financial market and foreign exchange market by using the TVP-VAR model. Our analysis shows that US credit spread shock, which is an indicator of uncertainty in international financial markets, has had a negative impact on domestic financial markets and capital inflows. On the other hand, the impact of the US policy rate hike after 2015 was limited.

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and non-EPU global uncertainty measures exhibit heterogeneous behavior, especially in 2010s. Using firm-level data from 36 countries, we estimate the effect of global uncertainty on corporate investment in 1997–2016. Eleven global uncertainty measures, including global EPU, are employed to encompass macro, micro, and higher-order dimensions of uncertainty. We find different effect of EPU and non-EPU global uncertainty measures on investment. Only EPU measures negatively affect investment, while non-EPU measures have positive effects, which suggests a possible first-order implication of EPU.

This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants behind the number of foreign visitors to Korean casinos arriving from major source countries, namely Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2016, we utilized a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate the dynamic effects of macroeconomic factors on the number of casino visitors. Estimation results supported the conclusion that visitors from Japan and Mainland China—who account for approximately three quarters of the total number of foreign casino visitors—were affected by macroeconomic or financial indicators such as changes in oil prices, exports and exchange rates (Japan), exports and short-term interest rates (Mainland China). In contrast, visitors from Hong Kong SAR did not seem to be influenced by any of these factors. We also found that the MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak in Korea in 2015 had a significant adverse effect on casino visitors from all regions. Implications and suggestions for future studies are provided along with the results of this study.

As emerging market countries are more deeply integrated with the global economy, it is more likely that financial shocks in those countries can spill over into advanced economies, which we call “reverse spillover”. We examine whether emerging market financial turmoil in 2013–2014, caused mainly by the expectation of future US monetary policy tightening, created such spillover. Panel fixed-effects regression suggests that emerging market financial instability reduces portfolio fund flows to advanced economies and increases their sovereign CDS premia. In addition, Granger causality network analysis indicates that the influence of emerging market economies in the global financial network significantly increased during the period of interest.

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 글로벌 자본유출입 결정요인 및 미국 통화정책이 국내 금융시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과 신흥국의 자본유출입은 주로 대외요인에 의해 영향을 받았으나, 국가별로 자본유출입 결정요인이 상당히 상이한 것으로 나타났다. 미 연준 통화정책 정상화가 국내 금융시장, 외환시장에 미치는 파급영향을 분석한 결과 미 정책금리, 기간프리미엄, 신용스프레드 등이 높아지면 국내 신용스프레드 확대 및 원/달러 환율 상승(원화 약세) 등을 초래하여다. 아울러 내국인 해외투자자금이 회수되면서 외국인 국내투자자금 이탈을 상쇄시키는 모습을 보였다. 그동안 내외금리 차 확대가 곧바로 자본유출로 이어진다는 우려가 컸다. 하지만 2014년 이후 '내국인 해외 증권투자자산 > 외국인 국내 증권투자' 구조 정착 및 내국인 해외투자자금의 환류 가능성 상승 등으로 '내외금리차 확대 → 자본유출 증가' 리스크가 과거보다 줄어들었다는 점을 시사한다. English Abstract: During the global financial crisis, the US monetary authority (Fed) reduced the benchmark interest rate to 0% and provided massive liquidity through three quantitative easing measures. As a result, the US Fed balance sheet expanded five times ($ 4.5 trillion) from September 2008 ($ 0.9 trillion). Much of the increased global liquidity flowed into emerging economies. The influx of capital contributed to the growth of emerging economies, leading to new credit increases such as bank loans. Emerging markets, which supported 63% of global GDP, served as an engine of the global economy at a time when the growth in the US and Europe were subdued. While capital inflows have a supporting role in contributing to economic growth, they have also been a potential prompting factors to systemic risk in emerging countries and Korea. Emerging economies actively responded to systemic risks from foreign capital inflows. With the introduction of macro-prudential policy measures, emerging economies have been striving to maintain an external balance by responding to the surge in domestic credit and restraining excessive capital inflows. In order for emerging countries to adopt measures to curb inflows of capital, persuasiveness and legitimacy are secured only if external influences are triggered by external factors. Most previous studies have shown that push factors have had a greater impact on capital outflows in emerging economies than in pull factors. Raghuram Rajan, former central bank governor of India, has pointed out that the monetary policy impact of the US Fed and the developed country central bank is a major external factor (push factor). Meanwhile, in May 2018, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the controversy over capital movements to emerging economies after the global financial crisis. Powell said the inflows of capital into emerging economies is unlikely to have been caused by the Fed’s interest rate policy. According to the study, the US Fed’s quantitative easing has had the effect of lowering the Fed base rate by a further 4%. This means that normalization of the quantitative easing policy will lead to a policy rate hike of 4 percentage points. This is the reason why the normalization of US monetary policy will have a negative impact on the global economy. At the same time, the squeezing on capital outflows in emerging economies is increasing. Powell’s speech contains “implied” warnings that the US monetary policy is not a triggering force of a capital outflow in emerging economies. That’s why Powell’s speech is adding to the difficulty of policy responses in emerging countries. This suggests that it is necessary to check the determinants of global capital flows. In addition, the impact of US monetary policy on Korea's financial markets and capital outflows needs to be analyzed in depth.

We examine the determinants of regulatory frameworks in the banking sector using an extensive data set of regulations of more than 180 countries. In contrast with previous studies, we analyze multiple aspects of regulations independently in terms of their objects and functions, controlling for political and economic conditions that might affect regulatory structures. We find that each dimension of regulations is determined by different factors, and the incentives for the formulation of regulations differ between emerging and developed economies. Emerging economies regulate banking activities, entry, and foreign bank operations more tightly than do developed economies; however, emerging economies impose fewer restrictions on private monitoring requirements.

This paper examines the different effects of macroprudential policy and monetary policy on credit and inflation using a simple New Keynesian model with credit. In this model, macroprudential policy is effective in stabilizing credit but has a limited effect on inflation. Monetary policy with an interest rate rule stabilizes inflation, but this rule is ‘too blunt’ an instrument to stabilize credit. The determinacy of the model requires the interest rate’s response to inflation to be greater than one for one and independent of macroprudential policy. That is, the ‘Taylor principle’ applies to monetary policy. This dichotomy between macroprudential policy and monetary policy arises because each policy is designed to differently affect the saving and borrowing decisions of households.

We conduct an empirical analysis on the effect of air pollution on retail sales, using monthly regional panel data on air quality and large retail store sales in Korea. We account for regional heterogeneity in air pollution and control for various macroeconomic and climatic factors that can affect retail sales. We also use the air quality indicator in the west coastal islands - affected by trans-border pollution, but uncorrelated with economic activity in the mainland - as an instrumental variable. The estimation result shows that one additional day of PM10 level higher than 80 reduces monthly retail sales by about 0.1 percent in general. However, an adaptive pattern appears over time, in particular when the level of air pollution in the previous month was severe.

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model, including a financial accelerator and the search and matching framework in labor markets, for the Korean economy using the Bayesian technique. The estimated model provides the following findings. The recent sluggishness in GDP growth can be explained by slow technology growth, while decline in CPI inflation is affected by falling markup in domestic homogenous goods production and negative intertemporal consumption preference. While wage, unemployment and total labor hours are influenced by various factors, households’ weak bargaining power causes slow wage recovery while pushing the unemployment rate down. There was a spillover from non-big-5 to big-5 firms during the financial crisis. Monetary and fiscal policy has been mostly conservative in the post-crisis period.

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 2016년 도입 예정인 경기대응완충자본 제도를 운용하는 데 있어 활용할 수 있는 기준지표를 탐색한다. 신용, 거시경제, 금융시장 등 총 7개 부문 42개 변수에 대해 1981년 이후 우리나라에서 발생한 네 차례의 금융불안상황에 대한 예측력을 점검한 결과 완충자본 적립판단 부문에서는 기업가계신용 등 신용관련 변수가, 완충자본 사용판단 부문에서는 시장 변동성신용스프레드 등 금융시장관련 변수가 유용한 것으로 나타난다. 신용 변수를 중심 설명변수로 한 다변량 모형은 과거 금융불안상황에 대해 높은 설명력을 보인다.English Abstract: Countercyclical capital buffer in Basel III is a macropudential tool that aims to reduce procyclicality in financial intermediation. It requires banks to set aside additional capital buffer in times of credit overheating, and allows them to release the buffer when a breakdown in credit intermediation is imminent. To operationalize this buffer, it is important to find information variables that enable policymakers to determine whether current credit activities are overheated, to the extent that it can lead to a significant financial crisis afterwards.We explore indicator variables necessary for implementing countercyclical capital buffer in Korea. To do so, we first collect 42 variables in 7 sectors including credit aggregates, financial markets, and macroeconomic variables. We then evaluate the past performance of those variables to predict financial crises in Korea since 1981, using AUROC (area under receiver operating characteristic), loss function, and noise-to-signal ratio.The results show that credit variables such as the credit to non-financial firms and households are the most useful in determining when to build up the buffer, and so are financial market variables such as credit spread in determining when to release the buffer. A multi-variable approach, using mostly credit aggregate variables, has high explanatory power on the occurrence of past financial crises.

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 Basel III 자본규제의 일환으로 도입될 경기대응완충자본 제도를 운용하는 데 있어 활용할 수 있는 기준지표를 탐색한다. 신용, 거시경제, 금융시장 등 총 7개 부문 42개 변수에 대해 1981년 이후 우리나라에서 발생한 네 차례의 금융위기에 대한 예측력을 점검한 결과 완충자본 적립판단 부문에서는 기업 ․ 가계신용 등 신용관련 변수가, 완충자본 사용 판단 부문에서는 시장 변동성 ․ 신용스프레드 등 금융시장관련 변수가 유용한 것으로 나타난다. 신용 변수를 중심 설명변수로 한 다변량 모형은 과거 금융위기에 대해 높은 설명력을 보인다. 본 연구는 경기대응완충자본에 대한 국내 기존 연구와 비교해 보다 광범위한 후보변수에 대해 NTS(Noise-To-Signal) 비율, 손실함수(Loss Function: LF), AUROC(Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) 등을 통해 다각적인 분석을 실시하며, 완충자본의 적립 및 사용에 대한 분석을 구분한다는 점에서 의미를 찾을 수 있다. English Abstract: Countercyclical capital buffer in Basel III is a macro-prudential tool that aims to reduce pro-cyclicality in financial intermediation. To operationalize this buffer, it is important to find information variables that enable policymakers to determine whether current credit activities are overheated, to the extent that it can lead to a significant financial crisis afterwards. We explore indicator variables necessary for implementing counter-cyclical capital buffer in Korea. To do so, we first collect 42 variables in 7 sectors including credit aggregates, financial markets, and macroeconomic variables. We then evaluate the past performance of those variables to predict financial crises in Korea since 1981, using AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic), loss function, and noise-to-signal ratio. The results show that credit variables such as the credit to non-financial firms and households are the most useful in determining when to build up the buffer, and so are financial market variables such as credit spread in determining when to release the buffer. A multi-variable approach, using mostly credit aggregate variables, has high explanatory power on the occurrence of past financial crises.

Korean Abstract: 2008년 9월 글로벌 금융위기 이후 저금리가 장기간 지속되는 과정에서 국제금융시장 가격변수들의 변동성도 낮게 유지되었다. 낮은 변동성의 지속은 리스크 프리미엄의 하락을 초래하고, 이로 인해 글로벌 투자자들이 위험을 감수하는 행위가 증가한다. 2009년 이후 신흥국으로 대규모 자금이 유입되는 국제자본 흐름의 큰 변화가 발생하였는데, 이는 글로벌 투자자들의 위험자산에 대한 선호도가 높아짐에 따라 신용위험이 상대적으로 높은 신흥국에 대한 투자가 증가한데 기인한다. 신흥국으로의 자본유입 증가는 국내신용 증가 및 자산가격 왜곡 등 금융시스템의 취약성을 증대시킨다. 이는 향후 자본유출 압력이 강해지면 국내 자산가격의 하락 및 경기위축 등이 초래될 수 있음을 시사한다. 2015년 말 이후 미국 연방준비제도이사회(Federal Reserve Board)가 통화정책을 정상화하면서 자산가격의 변동성과 리스크 프리미엄이 다시 상승(정상화) 할 경우 우리나라를 포함한 신흥국으로 유입된 외국인자금에 대한 유출압력이 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 이에 따라 본 보고서는 국제금융시장의 변동성과 자본 흐름의 변화를 살펴보고, 신흥국 자금유출입의 변동요인을 분석하였다. 또한 신흥국 및 우리나라의 자본이동관리정책을 살펴보았으며, 새로운 정책대응수단으로 자산지준제도의 효과를 분석하였다.English Abstract: Volatilities of price indicators have remained extremely stable during the period of low interest rates since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of September 2009. Low volatility pushes down the risk premium which could cause global investors’ risk appetite to increase. There has been a big change in global liquidity flows since 2009. Emerging market economies (EMEs), with relatively high credit risk, received huge capital inflows backed up by the increased risk appetite of global investors. US Federal Reserve is now trying to normalize its monetary policy by increasing the policy rate tied at zero low bound for about seven years. This will bring asset price volatility and risk premiums to normalize. We remain concerned about the downside risk to the capital outflows from EMEs, including Korea. And it may well potentially cause a decrease in asset price and a growth contraction in EMEs. Accordingly, we provide an overview of the volatility of financial market and new trends in capital flows, and identify the determinants of capital flows to/from EMEs. We also review the use of capital flow management policies in EMEs including Korea, and examine the effectiveness of Asset？Based Reserve Requirements (ABRR) as an alternative macro-prudential policy measure to manage capital flows.

This paper examines the interactions of macroprudential policy and monetary policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions. Macroprudential policy can stabilize credit cycles. However, a macroprudential instrument that aims to stabilize a specific segment of the credit market can cause regulatory arbitrage, that is, a reallocation of credit to a less regulated part of the market. Within this model, welfare-maximizing monetary policy aims to stabilize only inflation and macroprudential policy only stabilizes credit. Two aspects of the model account for this dichotomy. First, credit stabilization is welfare improving because lower volatility is compensated by higher mean equilibrium credit and capital. Second, monetary policy is sub-optimal for credit stabilization. The reason is that it operates on the decisions of borrowers and savers, while macroprudential policy operates only on the decisions of borrowers.