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BACKGROUND: An unmet need exists to reliably predict the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). HYPOTHESIS: An externally validated model improves ICH risk stratification. METHODS: Independent factors associated with ICH were identified by Cox proportional hazard modeling, using pooled data from the GARFIELD-AF (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation) and ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registries. A predictive model was developed and validated by bootstrap sampling and by independent data from the Danish National Patient Register. RESULTS: In the combined training data set, 284 of 53 878 anticoagulated patients had ICH over a 2-year period (0.31 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28-0.35). Independent predictors of ICH included: older age, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, concomitant antiplatelet (AP) use, and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD). Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) were associated with a significantly higher risk of ICH compared with non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.25-2.08; p = .0002). The ability of the model to discriminate individuals in the training set with and without ICH was fair (optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.65-0.71) and outperformed three previously published methods. Calibration between predicted and observed ICH probabilities was good in both training and validation data sets. CONCLUSIONS: Age, prior ischemic events, concomitant AP therapy, and CKD were important risk factors for ICH in anticoagulated AF patients. Moreover, ICH was more frequent in patients receiving VKA compared to NOAC. The new validated model is a step toward mitigating this potentially lethal complication.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) adversely impacts health-related quality of life (hrQoL). While some patients demonstrate improvements in hrQoL, the factors associated with large improvements in hrQoL are not well described.MethodsWe assessed factors associated with a 1-year increase in the Atrial Fibrillation Effect on Quality-of-Life score of 1 SD (≥18 points; 3× clinically important difference), among outpatients in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation I registry.ResultsOverall, 28% (181/636) of patients had such a hrQoL improvement. Compared with patients not showing large hrQoL improvement, they were of similar age (median 73 versus 74, P=0.3), equally likely to be female (44% versus 48%, P=0.3), but more likely to have newly diagnosed AF at baseline (18% versus 8%; P=0.0004), prior antiarrhythmic drug use (52% versus 40%, P=0.005), baseline antiarrhythmic drug use (34.8% versus 26.8%, P=0.045), and more likely to undergo AF-related procedures during follow-up (AF ablation: 6.6% versus 2.0%, P=0.003; cardioversion: 12.2% versus 5.9%, P=0.008). In multivariable analysis, a history of alcohol abuse (adjusted OR, 2.41; P=0.01) and increased baseline diastolic blood pressure (adjusted OR, 1.23 per 10-point increase and >65 mm Hg; P=0.04) were associated with large improvements in hrQoL at 1 year, whereas patients with prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and peripheral arterial disease were less likely to improve (P

Background Patient satisfaction with therapy is an important metric of care quality and has been associated with greater medication persistence. We evaluated the association of patient satisfaction with warfarin therapy to other metrics of anticoagulation care quality and clinical outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation ( AF ). Methods and Results Using data from the ORBIT - AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registry, patients were identified with AF who were taking warfarin and had completed an Anti-Clot Treatment Scale ( ACTS ) questionnaire, a validated metric of patient-reported burden and benefit of oral anticoagulation. Multivariate regressions were used to determine association of ACTS burden and benefit scores with time in therapeutic international normalized ratio range ( TTR ; both ≥75% and ≥60%), warfarin discontinuation, and clinical outcomes (death, stroke, major bleed, and all-cause hospitalization). Among 1514 patients with AF on warfarin therapy (75±10 years; 42% women; CHA 2 DS 2- VAS c 3.9±1.7), those most burdened with warfarin therapy were younger and more likely to be women, have paroxysmal AF , and to be treated with antiarrhythmic drugs. After adjustment for covariates, ACTS burden scores were independent of TTR ( TTR ≥75%: odds ratio, 1.01 [95% CI , 0.99-1.03]; TTR ≥60%: odds ratio, 1.01 [95% CI , 0.98-1.05]), warfarin discontinuation (odds ratio, 0.99; 95% CI , 0.97-1.01), or clinical outcomes. ACTS benefit scores were also not associated with TTR , warfarin discontinuation, or clinical outcomes. Conclusions In a large registry of patients with AF taking warfarin, ACTS scores provided independent information beyond other traditional metrics of oral anticoagulation care quality and identified patient groups at high risk for dissatisfaction with warfarin therapy.

Anticoagulation is highly effective for the prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) but it is dependent on patients continuing therapy. While studies have demonstrated suboptimal therapeutic persistence on warfarin, few have studied persistence rates with non vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) such as dabigatran. We examined rates of continued use of dabigatran versus warfarin over 1 year among AF patients in the ORBIT-AF registry between June 29, 2010 and August 09, 2011. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify characteristics associated with 1-year persistent use of dabigatran therapy or warfarin. At baseline, 6.4 and 93.6% of 7150 AF patients were on dabigatran and warfarin, respectively. At 12 months, dabigatran-treated patients were less likely to have continued their therapy than warfarin-treated patients [Adjusted persistence rates: 66% (95% CI 60-72) vs. 82% (95% CI 80-84), p

Background Chronic kidney disease ( CKD ) is a common comorbidity in patients with atrial fibrillation. The presence of CKD complicates drug selection for stroke prevention and rhythm control. Methods and Results Patients enrolled in ORBIT AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) with baseline renal function and follow-up data were included (N=9019). CKD was defined as an estimated creatinine clearance

Background Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines suggest that for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at low risk for stroke (CHA2DS2VASc=1) (or women with CHA2DS2VASc=2) a variety of treatment strategies may be considered. However, in clinical practice, patterns of treatment in these "low-risk" patients are not well described. The objective of this analysis is to define thromboembolic event rates and to describe treatment patterns in patients with low-risk CHA2DS2VASc scores. Methods and Results We compared characteristics, treatment strategies, and outcomes among patients with a CHA2DS2VASc=0, CHA2DS2VASc=1, females with a CHA2DS2VASc=2, and CHA2DS2VASc ≥2 in ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) I & II. Compared with CHA2DS2VASc ≥2 patients (84.2%), those with a CHA2DS2VASc=0 (60.3%), 1 (69.9%), and females with a CHA2DS2VASc score=2 (72.4%) were significantly less often treated with oral anticoagulation ( P

Background Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines suggest that for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at low risk for stroke (CHA2DS2VASc=1) (or women with CHA2DS2VASc=2) a variety of treatment strategies may be considered. However, in clinical practice, patterns of treatment in these "low-risk" patients are not well described. The objective of this analysis is to define thromboembolic event rates and to describe treatment patterns in patients with low-risk CHA2DS2VASc scores. Methods and Results We compared characteristics, treatment strategies, and outcomes among patients with a CHA2DS2VASc=0, CHA2DS2VASc=1, females with a CHA2DS2VASc=2, and CHA2DS2VASc ≥2 in ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) I & II. Compared with CHA2DS2VASc ≥2 patients (84.2%), those with a CHA2DS2VASc=0 (60.3%), 1 (69.9%), and females with a CHA2DS2VASc score=2 (72.4%) were significantly less often treated with oral anticoagulation ( P

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces stroke risk in atrial fibrillation, but bleeding is a frequent side effect. The decision to discontinue or modify medication regimens in response to a bleeding event may differ according to bleeding site and severity. We used data from a large, national outpatient registry, ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation; 2010-2011), to evaluate event characteristics and OAC management following the first bleeding event occurring during follow-up. Bleeding events were classified into 3 categories: (1) International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis major bleeding, (2) clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding requiring medical attention, and (3) nuisance bleeding not requiring medical attention (eg, bruising, hemorrhoidal bleeding). Of 9743 patients enrolled in ORBIT-AF with follow-up data, 510 (3.23/100 subject-years) experienced a major bleed, 615 (3.90/100 subject-years), experienced a clinically relevant nonmajor bleed, and 1558 (9.87/100 subject-years) experienced a nuisance bleed, among first bleeds over 2 years. Nearly one third of patients (31.6%) discontinued OAC therapy following a major bleeding event, 12.7% following a clinically relevant nonmajor bleed, and 4.5% following a nuisance bleed. Compared with those who experienced a clinically relevant nonmajor or nuisance bleed, patients who experienced a major bleed were more likely to be black and female and to have a history of heart failure and stroke. Those who discontinued were more likely to have central nervous system or gastrointestinal bleeding than those who persisted on OAC therapy. Overall, 1 in 3 patients who experienced a major bleed was no longer anticoagulated after the event. Those who discontinued OAC were more likely to have central nervous system or gastrointestinal bleeding than those who persisted on OAC.

Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) therapy may be beneficial to patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but little is known about their use in patients with AF and subsequent outcomes. In order to better understand MRA use and subsequent outcomes, we performed a retrospective cohort study of the contemporary ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registry. AF progression and cardiovascular outcomes were compared using propensity-matched Cox proportional hazards modeling according to MRA use at baseline and new MRA use at follow-up versus patients with no MRA use. Among 7012 patients with nonpermanent AF, 320 patients were taking MRA at enrollment, and 416 patients initiated MRA use during follow-up. The mean patient age was 72.5 years, 56.3% were men, and 70.4% had paroxysmal AF. Among all patients taking MRAs, 434 (59.0%) had heart failure, 655 (89.0%) had hypertension, and 380 (51.6%) had both. After adjustment, new MRA use was not associated with reduced AF progression (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.58; P=0.27) but showed a trend towards lower risk of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism (hazard ratio, 0.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-1.23; P=0.08). Results were similar for a comparison of new MRA users and baseline MRA users compared with nonusers. In community-based outpatients with AF, the majority of MRA use was for heart failure and hypertension. MRA use also trended towards lower adjusted stroke risk. Future studies should test the hypothesis that MRA use may decrease the risk of stroke in patients with AF.

BackgroundOral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy is associated with increased periprocedural risks after cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation. Patterns of anticoagulation management involving non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have not been characterized.HypothesisAnticoagulation strategies and outcomes differ by anticoagulant type in patients undergoing CIED implantation.MethodsUsing the nationwide Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation, we assessed how atrial fibrillation (AF) patients undergoing CIED implantation were cared for and their subsequent outcomes. Outcomes were compared by oral anticoagulant therapy (none, warfarin, or NOAC) as well as by anticoagulation interruption status.ResultsAmong 9129 AF patients, 416 (5%) underwent CIED implantation during a median follow-up of 30 months (interquartile range, 24-36). Of these, 60 (14%) had implantation on a NOAC. Relative to warfarin therapy, those on a NOAC were younger (70.5 years [range, 65-77.5 years] vs 77 years [range, 70-82 years]), had less valvular heart disease (15.0% vs 31.3%), higher creatinine clearance (67.3 [range, 59.7-99.0] vs 65.8 [range, 50.0-91.6]), were more likely to have persistent AF (26.7% vs 22.9%), and use concomitant aspirin (51.7% vs 35.2%). OAC therapy was commonly interrupted for CIED in 64% (n = 183 of 284) of warfarin patients and 65% (n = 39 of 60) of NOAC patients. Many interrupted patients received intravenous bridging anticoagulation: 33/183 (18%) interrupted warfarin and 4/39 (10%) interrupted NOAC patients. Thirty-day periprocedure bleeding and stroke adverse events were infrequent.ConclusionsManagement of anticoagulation among AF patients undergoing CIED implantation is highly variable, with OAC being interrupted in more than half of both warfarin- and NOAC-treated patients. Bleeding and stroke events were infrequent in both warfarin and NOAC-treated patients.

BackgroundTherapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often influenced by assessment of bleeding risk. However, existing bleeding risk scores have limitations.ObjectivesWe sought to develop and validate a novel bleeding risk score using routinely available clinical information to predict major bleeding in a large, community-based AF population.MethodsWe analysed data from Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF), a prospective registry that enrolled incident and prevalent AF patients at 176 US sites. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we identified factors independently associated with major bleeding among patients taking oral anticoagulation (OAC) over a median follow-up of 2 years (interquartile range = 1.6-2.5). We also created a numerical bedside risk score that included the five most predictive risk factors weighted according to their strength of association with major bleeding. The predictive performance of the full model, the simple five-item score, and two existing risk scores (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile INR, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly, HAS-BLED, and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation, ATRIA) were then assessed in both the ORBIT-AF cohort and a separate clinical trial population, Rivaroxaban Once-daily oral direct factor Xa inhibition compared with vitamin K antagonism for prevention of stroke and embolism trial in atrial fibrillation (ROCKET-AF).ResultsAmong 7411 ORBIT-AF patients taking OAC, the rate of major bleeding was 4.0/100 person-years. The full continuous model (12 variables) and five-factor ORBIT risk score (older age [75+ years], reduced haemoglobin/haematocrit/history of anaemia, bleeding history, insufficient kidney function, and treatment with antiplatelet) both had good ability to identify those who bled vs. not (C-index 0.69 and 0.67, respectively). These scores both had similar discrimination, but markedly better calibration when compared with the HAS-BLED and ATRIA scores in an external validation population from the ROCKET-AF trial.ConclusionsThe five-element ORBIT bleeding risk score had better ability to predict major bleeding in AF patients when compared with HAS-BLED and ATRIA risk scores. The ORBIT risk score can provide a simple, easily remembered tool to support clinical decision making.

BackgroundMost patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) require rate control; however, the optimal target heart rate remains under debate. We aimed to assess rate control and subsequent outcomes among patients with permanent AF.Methods and resultsWe studied 2812 US outpatients with permanent AF in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation. Resting heart rate was measured longitudinally and used as a time-dependent covariate in multivariable Cox models of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during a median follow-up of 24 months. At baseline, 7.4% (n=207) had resting heart rate 65 bpm was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.10 per 5-bpm increase; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.15; P

BackgroundAlthough digoxin has long been used to treat atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF), its safety remains controversial.ObjectivesThis study sought to describe digoxin use over time in patients with AF who were stratified by the presence or absence of HF, to characterize the predictors of digoxin use and initiation, and to correlate digoxin use with outcomes.MethodsLongitudinal patterns of digoxin use and its association with a variety of outcomes were assessed in a prospective outpatient registry conducted at 174 U.S. sites with enrollment from June 2010 to August 2011.ResultsAmong 9,619 patients with AF and serial follow-up every 6 months for up to 3 years, 2,267 (23.6%) received digoxin at study enrollment, 681 (7.1%) were initiated on digoxin during follow-up, and 6,671 (69.4%) were never prescribed digoxin. After adjusting for other medications, heart rate was 72.9 beats/min among digoxin users and 71.5 beats/min among nonusers (p < 0.0001). Prevalent digoxin use at registry enrollment was not associated with subsequent onset of symptoms, hospitalization, or mortality (in patients with HF, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for death: 1.04; without HF, HR: 1.22). Incident digoxin use during follow-up was not associated with subsequent death in patients with HF (propensity adjusted HR: 1.05), but was associated with subsequent death in those without HF (propensity adjusted HR: 1.99).ConclusionsAfter adjustment for detailed clinical factors, digoxin use in registry patients with AF had a neutral association with outcomes under most circumstances. Because of the multiple conflicting observational reports about digoxin's safety and possible concerns in specific clinical situations, a large pragmatic trial of digoxin therapy in AF is needed.

ObjectiveGiven conflicting data regarding the association of HIV infection and ischemic stroke risk, we sought to determine whether HIV infection conferred an increased ischemic stroke risk among male veterans.MethodsThe Veterans Aging Cohort Study-Virtual Cohort consists of HIV-infected and uninfected veterans in care matched (1:2) for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and clinical site. We analyzed data on 76,835 male participants in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study-Virtual Cohort who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. We assessed demographics, ischemic stroke risk factors, comorbid diseases, substance use, HIV biomarkers, and incidence of ischemic stroke from October 1, 2003, to December 31, 2009.ResultsDuring a median follow-up period of 5.9 (interquartile range 3.5-6.6) years, there were 910 stroke events (37.4% HIV-infected). Ischemic stroke rates per 1,000 person-years were higher for HIV-infected (2.79, 95% confidence interval 2.51-3.10) than for uninfected veterans (2.24 [2.06-2.43]) (incidence rate ratio 1.25 [1.09-1.43]; p < 0.01). After adjusting for demographics, ischemic stroke risk factors, comorbid diseases, and substance use, the risk of ischemic stroke was higher among male veterans with HIV infection compared with uninfected veterans (hazard ratio 1.17 [1.01-1.36]; p = 0.04).ConclusionsHIV infection is associated with an increased ischemic stroke risk among HIV-infected compared with demographically and behaviorally similar uninfected male veterans.

BackgroundRecent clinical trials have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of several non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, there are limited data on their use and outcomes in routine clinical practice, particularly among patients newly diagnosed as having AF and patients with AF recently transitioned to a NOAC.Methods/designORBIT-AF II is a multicenter, national registry of patients with AF that is enrolling up to 15,000 newly diagnosed patients with AF and/or those with AF recently transitioned to a NOAC from 300 US outpatient practices. These patients will be followed for up to 2 years, including clinical status, outcomes (major adverse cardiovascular events, bleeding), and management of anticoagulation surrounding bleeding events. In addition, detailed data regarding the use of these agents in and around cardiac procedures, their complications, and management of such complications will be collected.ConclusionsThe ORBIT-AF II registry will provide valuable insights into the safety and effectiveness of NOACs used in AF in community practice settings.

BackgroundPhysicians treating patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) must weigh the benefits of anticoagulation in preventing stroke versus the risk of bleeding. Although empirical models have been developed to predict such risks, the degree to which these coincide with clinicians' estimates is unclear.Methods and resultsWe examined 10 094 AF patients enrolled in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of AF (ORBIT-AF) registry between June 2010 and August 2011. Empirical stroke and bleeding risks were assessed by using the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (CHADS2) and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) scores, respectively. Separately, physicians were asked to categorize their patients' stroke and bleeding risks: low risk (6%). Overall, 72% (n=7251) in ORBIT-AF had high-risk CHADS2 scores (≥2). However, only 16% were assessed as high stroke risk by physicians. Although 17% (n=1749) had high ATRIA bleeding risk (score ≥5), only 7% (n=719) were considered so by physicians. The associations between empirical and physician-estimated stroke and bleeding risks were low (weighted Kappa 0.1 and 0.11, respectively). Physicians weighed hypertension, heart failure, and diabetes mellitus less significantly than empirical models in estimating stroke risk; physicians weighted anemia and dialysis less significantly than empirical models when estimating bleeding risks. Anticoagulation use was highest among patients with high stroke risk, assessed by either empirical model or physician estimates. In contrast, physician and empirical estimates of bleeding had limited impact on treatment choice.ConclusionsThere is little agreement between provider-assessed risk and empirical scores in AF. These differences may explain, in part, the current divergence of anticoagulation treatment decisions from guideline recommendations.Clinical trial registration urlhttp://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01165710.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac dysrhythmia and contributes significantly to health care expenditures. We sought to assess the frequency and predictors of hospitalization in patients with AF.MethodsThe ORBIT-AF registry is a prospective, observational study of outpatients with AF enrolled from June 29, 2010, to August 9, 2011. The current analysis included 9,484 participants with 1-year follow-up. Multivariable, logistic regression was used to identify baseline characteristics that were associated with first cause-specific hospitalization.ResultsOverall, 31% of patients with AF studied (n = 2,963) had 1 or more hospitalizations per year and 10% (n = 983) had 2 or more. The most common hospitalization cause was cardiovascular (20 per 100 patient-years vs 3.3 bleeding vs 17 noncardiovascular, nonbleeding). Compared with those not hospitalized, hospitalized patients were more likely to have concomitant heart failure (42% vs 28%, P < .0001), higher mean CHADS2 (1 point for congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75, or diabetes; 2 points for prior stroke or transient ischemic attack) scores (2.5 vs 2.2, P < .0001), and more symptoms (baseline European Heart Rhythm Association class severe symptoms 18% vs 13%, P < .0001). In multivariable analysis, heart failure (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.57 for New York Heart Association III/IV vs none, P < .0001), heart rate at baseline (adjusted HR 1.11 per 10-beats/min increase >66, P < .0001), and AF symptom class (adjusted HR 1.37 for European Heart Rhythm Association severe vs none, P < .0001) were the major predictors of incident hospitalization.ConclusionsHospitalization is common in outpatients with AF and is independently predicted by heart failure and AF symptoms. Improved symptom control, rate control, and comorbid condition management should be evaluated as strategies to reduce health care use in these patients.

BackgroundDabigatran is a novel oral anticoagulant approved for thromboprophylaxis in atrial fibrillation. Adoption patterns of this new agent in community practice are unknown.Methods and resultsWe studied patterns of dabigatran use among patients enrolled in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF) Registry between June 2010 and August 2011 and followed for 12 months. Among 9974 atrial fibrillation patients included, 1217 (12%) were treated with dabigatran during the study. Overall, patients receiving dabigatran were younger (median age 72 versus 75 years, P