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Aims: Prediction of mitral (MR) and tricuspid (TR) regurgitation progression on transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is needed to personalize valvular surveillance intervals and prognostication., Methods and Results: Structured TTE report data at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 26 January 2000-31 December 2017, were used to determine time to progression (≥1+ increase in severity). TTE predictors of progression were used to create a progression score, externally validated at Massachusetts General Hospital, 1 January 2002-31 December 2019. In the derivation sample (MR, N = 34 933; TR, N = 27 526), only 5379 (15.4%) individuals with MR and 3630 (13.2%) with TR had progression during a median interquartile range) 9.0 (4.1-13.4) years of follow-up. Despite wide inter-individual variability in progression rates, a score based solely on demographics and TTE variables identified individuals with a five- to six-fold higher rate of MR/TR progression over 10 years (high- vs. low-score tertile, rate of progression; MR 20.1% vs. 3.3%; TR 21.2% vs. 4.4%). Compared to those in the lowest score tertile, those in the highest tertile of progression had a four-fold increased risk of mortality. On external validation, the score demonstrated similar performance to other algorithms commonly in use., Conclusion: Four-fifths of individuals had no progression of MR or TR over two decades. Despite wide interindividual variability in progression rates, a score, based solely on TTE parameters, identified individuals with a five- to six-fold higher rate of MR/TR progression. Compared to the lowest tertile, individuals in the highest score tertile had a four-fold increased risk of mortality. Prediction of long-term MR/TR progression is not only feasible but prognostically important., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: Dr Strom additionally reports grant funding from Edwards Lifesciences, Anumana, Heartsciences, and Ultromics, consulting for Bracco Diagnostics, and speaker fees from Northwest Imaging Forums, unrelated to the submitted work. Dr Yeh reports additional grant support from Abbott Vascular, Astra Zeneca, BD Bard, Boston Scientific Cook, Philips Medical and Medtronic, and consulting fees from Abbott, AstraZeneca, Boston Scientific, Edwards Life Sciences, Medtronic, Shockwave Medical and Zoll outside the submitted work. Dr Wasfy reports grant support from the American Heart Association, National Institutes of Health, consulting fees from Pfizer and Biotronik, and honoraria from the New England Comparative Effectiveness Public Affairs Council. The remaining authors have nothing to disclose., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2021. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To identify potential race, sex and age disparities in performance of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) over several decades., Methods: TTE reports from five academic and community sites within a single integrated healthcare system were linked to 100% Medicare fee-for-service claims from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2017. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted rates of TTE utilisation after the index TTE according to baseline age, sex, race and comorbidities among individuals with ≥2 TTEs. Non-white race was defined as black, Asian, North American Native, Hispanic or other categories using Medicare-assigned race categories., Results: A total of 15 870 individuals (50.1% female, mean 72.2±12.7 years) underwent a total of 63 535 TTEs (range 2-55/person) over a median (IQR) follow-up time of 4.9 (2.4-8.5) years. After the index TTE, the median TTE use was 0.72 TTEs/person/year (IQR 0.43-1.33; range 0.12-26.76). TTE use was lower in older individuals (relative risk (RR) for 10-year increase in age, 0.91, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.92, p<0.001), women (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99, p<0.001) and non-white individuals (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97, p<0.001). Black women in particular had the lowest relative use of TTE (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.95, p<0.001). The only clinical conditions associated with increased TTE use after multivariable adjustment were heart failure (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.08, p=0.04) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.10, p=0.04)., Conclusions: Among Medicare beneficiaries with multiple TTEs in a single large healthcare system, the median TTE use after the index TTE was 0.72 TTEs/person/year, although this varied widely. Adjusted for comorbidities, female sex, non-white race and advancing age were associated with decreased TTE utilisation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JBS reports additional grant support from Edwards Lifesciences, Ultromics and HeartSciences, consulting for Bracco Diagnostics, and speaker fees from Northwest Imaging Forums, unrelated to the submitted work. CS is an employee of Biogen., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)