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In this paper, we use high frequency data to obtain novel asymmetry results in the short-term response of gold to monetary policy shocks. The gold returns and volatility 5 min after the shock are found to be more sensitive to looser than tighter FOMC rate announcement changes. This is explained by the increased appeal of gold during uncertainties and as a safe haven following negative monetary shocks. The rally in gold prices is construed by the market as an increase in the demand for safe haven assets, and hence, a stronger response in gold returns and volatility ensues. Moreover, we find that the gold price adjustment and its volatility adjustment continue for longer than five minutes after the FOMC shock. This suggests potential short-term inefficiencies in the gold market concerning the short-term rates.

IMPORTANCE: Age-related hearing loss is common in an aging population, affecting communication and contributing to a worsened quality of life. It occurs as a result of cochlear degeneration and may be further exacerbated by inflammation and microvascular changes, as observed in animal models. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of daily low-dose aspirin vs placebo on the progression of age-related hearing loss in healthy older adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prespecified secondary analysis was conducted of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized clinical trial. Participants were 279 healthy community-dwelling individuals living in Australia who were aged 70 years or older and free of overt cardiovascular diseases, dementia, and life-limiting illnesses. Participants were recruited between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014, and followed up over 3 years. Statistical analysis was completed from June to December 2023. INTERVENTION: A 100-mg daily dose of enteric-coated aspirin or matching placebo. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hearing measures were air conduction audiometry and binaural speech perception in noise. Assessments were conducted at baseline, 18 months, and 3 years. The change from baseline hearing measures were analyzed using an intention to treat approach. Aspirin and placebo were compared using mixed linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, and smoking. RESULTS: Of 279 participants, 154 (55%) were male, and the median age at baseline was 73.1 years (IQR, 71.5-76.2 years). A total of 98 of 138 participants (71%) in the aspirin group and 94 of 141 participants (67%) in the placebo group reported experiencing hearing loss at baseline. Compared with placebo, aspirin did not affect the changes in mean (SD) 4-frequency average hearing threshold from baseline to year 3 (aspirin: baseline, 27.8 [13.3] dB; year 3, 30.7 [13.7] dB; difference, 3.3 [3.9] dB; placebo: baseline, 27.5 [12.6] dB; year 3, 30.9 [13.8]

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis. METHODS: 24,368 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with weight collected during 1990-1994, 1995-1998, and 2003-2007, recalled weight at age 18-21 years, and height measured during 1990-1994 were included. Incident TKA from 2003 to 2007 to December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood (age 18-21 years) to late midlife (approximately 62 years) were identified: lower normal to normal BMI (TR1; 19.7% population), normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5; 10.1%), overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared to TR1 [from TR2: 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52) to TR6: 8.59 (6.44-11.46)]. 28.4% of TKA could be prevented if individuals followed the trajectory one lower, an average weight reduction of 8-12 kg from early adulthood to late midlife, saving $AUS 373 million/year. Most reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9%, 95% CI 26.7-47.3%) and TR3 (26.8%, 20.0-31.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.

High blood pressure variability (BPV) is a risk factor for cognitive decline and dementia, but its association with cortical thickness is not well understood. Here we use a topographical approach, to assess links between long-term BPV and cortical thickness in 478 (54% men at baseline) community dwelling older adults (70-88 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly NEURO sub-study. BPV was measured as average real variability, based on annual visits across three years. Higher diastolic BPV was significantly associated with reduced cortical thickness in multiple areas, including temporal (banks of the superior temporal sulcus), parietal (supramarginal gyrus, post-central gyrus), and posterior frontal areas (pre-central gyrus, caudal middle frontal gyrus), while controlling for mean BP. Higher diastolic BPV was associated with faster progression of cortical thinning across the three years. Diastolic BPV is an important predictor of cortical thickness, and trajectory of cortical thickness, independent of mean blood pressure. This finding suggests an important biological link in the relationship between BPV and cognitive decline in older age.

OBJECTIVE: There is increasing evidence for the involvement of vascular disease in the pathogenesis of knee OA. Popliteal artery wall thickness can be used as a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis. We examined the association between popliteal artery wall thickness and knee cartilage volume in individuals with symptomatic knee OA. METHODS: This prospective cohort study analysed 176 participants from a randomized placebo-controlled trial examining the effect of atorvastatin on structural progression in knee OA. The participants underwent MRI of the study knee at baseline and 2-year follow-up. Popliteal artery wall thickness and tibial cartilage volume were measured from MRI using validated methods. The top quartile of the rate of tibial cartilage volume loss was defined as rapid progression. RESULTS: At baseline, every 10% increase in popliteal artery wall thickness was associated with 120.8 mm3 (95% CI 5.4, 236.2, P = 0.04) lower of medial tibial cartilage volume and 151.9 mm3 (95% CI 12.1, 291.7, P = 0.03) lower of lateral tibial cartilage volume. Longitudinally, for every 10% increase in popliteal artery wall thickness, the annual rate of medial tibial cartilage volume loss was increased by 1.14% (95% CI 0.09%, 2.20%, P = 0.03), and there was a 2.28-fold (95% CI 1.07, 4.83, P = 0.03) risk of rapid progression of medial tibial cartilage loss, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, tibial bone area, smoking, vigorous physical activity, and intervention group allocation. CONCLUSION: The findings support a role for vascular pathology in the progression of knee OA. Targeting atherosclerosis has the potential to improve outcomes in knee OA.

OBJECTIVE: Although weight loss is recommended to manage knee osteoarthritis (KOA), adults tend to gain weight with age which may affect KOA symptoms and progression. We conducted a systematic review and data synthesis to investigate the association between weight gain and KOA, defined by clinical features, structural progression, and total knee replacement (TKR). DESIGN: MEDLINE and EMBASE were systematically searched for controlled trials and cohort studies of participants with (or at risk of) KOA examining the relationship between weight gain and KOA clinical features (pain, function, quality of life), structural progression, and TKR. Risk of bias was assessed using the ROBINS-I tool. Results were organised by outcome, with meta-analyses performed where appropriate. RESULTS: Twenty-three studies were included. Results showed significant detrimental effects of weight gain on pain (4 of 7 studies), stiffness (2 of 2 studies), function (5 of 6 studies), and the single studies examining quality of life, and clinical and radiographic KOA. Weight gain adversely affected cartilage (6 of 9 studies), bone marrow lesions (1 of 4 studies), meniscal damage (1 of 3 studies) and effusion/synovitis (1 of 1 study). Weight gain significantly increased TKR (3 of 6 studies): meta-analysis of 2 with available data demonstrated significant increases in TKR/5 kg weight gain in women, HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.18-1.51), and in men, HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.16-1.34). CONCLUSIONS: Weight gain in adults is associated with increased clinical and structural KOA and TKR. Prevention of weight gain should be considered to improve outcomes in KOA.

BACKGROUND: Pain sensitisation plays a major role in musculoskeletal pain. However, effective treatments are limited, and although there is growing evidence that exercise may improve pain sensitisation, the amount and type of exercise remains unclear. This systematic review examines the evidence for an effect of aerobic exercise on pain sensitisation in musculoskeletal conditions. METHODS: Systematic searches of six electronic databases were conducted. Studies were included if they examined the relationship between aerobic physical activity and pain sensitisation in individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain, but excluding specific patient subgroups such as fibromyalgia. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane methods and a qualitative analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Eleven studies (seven repeated measures studies and four clinical trials) of 590 participants were included. Eight studies had low to moderate risk of bias. All 11 studies found that aerobic exercise increased pressure pain thresholds or decreased pain ratings in those with musculoskeletal pain [median (minimum, maximum) improvement in pain sensitisation: 10.6% (2.2%, 24.1%)]. In these studies, the aerobic exercise involved walking or cycling, performed at a submaximal intensity but with incremental increases, for a 4-60 min duration. Improvement in pain sensitisation occurred after one session in the observational studies and after 2-12 weeks in the clinical trials. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide evidence that aerobic exercise reduces pain sensitisation in individuals with musculoskeletal pain. Further work is needed to determine whether this translates to improved patient outcomes, including reduced disability and greater quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Undertreated risk factors are major contributors to the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Those with arthritis have an increased prevalence of CVD risk factors. CVD risk factors are often asymptomatic, which may be a barrier their treatment. Arthritis causes pain and immobility, and is a common reason for individuals to seek healthcare. Our aims were to (1) examine the relationship between arthritis and CVD risk factors in Australian adults, and (2) calculate the proportion of CVD risk factors that could be reduced if individuals with arthritis were targeted. METHODS: This cross-sectional study uses data from the 2017-18 Australian National Health Survey which included 13,776 participants, categorised into young (18-39 years), middle aged (40-64 years) and older (≥ 65 years) adults. Hypertension, height and weight were measured. Arthritis, dyslipidemia and diabetes were self-reported. The associations between arthritis and CVD risk factors were examined using logistic regression, and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of arthritis for each CVD risk factor was calculated. RESULTS: Arthritis was reported by 4.0% of young adults, 28.8% of middle-aged adults and 54.5% of older adults. Those with arthritis were at increased odds of obesity (2.07 fold in young, 1.75 fold in middle-aged and 1.89 fold in older adults), increased odds of diabetes (5.70 fold in young, 1.64 fold in middle-aged and 1.37 fold in older adults), increased odds of hypertension (2.72 fold in young, 1.78 fold in middle-aged and 1.48 fold in older adults) and an increased odds of dyslipidaemia (4.64 fold in young, 2.14 fold in middle-aged and 1.22 fold in older adults) compared to those without arthritis. This elevated chance remained significant even after adjusting for obesity, with the exception of diabetes in the older population. This elevated chance remained significant even after adjusting for obesity, with the exception of diabetes in the older population. The PAF of

BACKGROUND: There is some evidence that corticosteroids may have a beneficial effect in hand osteoarthritis. We examined the efficacy of corticosteroids on symptoms and structural outcomes in hand osteoarthritis. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from inception to October 2021 for randomized controlled trials investigating the efficacy of corticosteroids in hand osteoarthritis. Two authors independently screened records, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias using the RoB 2 tool. Standardized mean difference (SMD) or mean difference (MD) was calculated, and random-effects meta-analyses were performed. RESULTS: Of 13 included trials, 3 examined oral corticosteroids and clinical outcomes in any hand joints, 9 examined intra-articular injection of corticosteroids and clinical outcomes at the first carpometacarpal joint and one in the interphalangeal joints. In meta-analysis, oral corticosteroids reduced pain (SMD -0.53, 95% CI -0.79 to -0.28) and improved stiffness (MD -5.03, 95% CI -9.91 to -0.15; Australian Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index stiffness subscale) and function (SMD -0.37, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.12) at 4-6 weeks. However, there was no significant persistent effect on pain and function at 3 months which was 6-8 weeks after study medication was stopped. There was no significant effect of intra-articular corticosteroids on pain or function at 4-6 weeks or over 3-12 months in first carpometacarpal osteoarthritis. Two trials evaluated joint structure at 4-6 weeks: one study showed oral corticosteroids reduced synovial thickening, neither showed an effect on synovitis. CONCLUSIONS: There was low-certainty evidence for a medium effect of oral corticosteroids on pain relief and stiffness improvement and small-to-medium effect on functional improvement at 4-6 weeks, with no significant effect for intra-articular corticosteroids. Corticosteroids had no significant effect on any outcomes over longer term

OBJECTIVE: While targeting obesity is central to osteoarthritis management, recent meta-analyses demonstrate only modest effects of weight loss on symptoms, and little on structure. The World Health Organisation recommends that effective management of obesity include prevention of weight gain, weight maintenance and weight loss. Therefore, we systematically reviewed the recommendations and approaches for management of obesity in clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for osteoarthritis. DESIGN: Nine databases were searched (01.01.2010-15.03.2022) to identify guidelines informing the non-pharmacological management of osteoarthritis. Three reviewers appraised guidelines according to the AGREE II instrument, and independently extracted data on their characteristics. One author extracted and summarised guideline recommendations on weight management. This systematic review is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021274195). RESULTS: Of the included fifteen CPGs (median AGREE II domain score 78.7%), weight loss was recommended for knee (12 of 13) and hip (10 of 11) but not hand (0 of 4) osteoarthritis. Combination approaches of diet and/or exercise were recommended for overweight or obese individuals in knee (8 of 12) and hip (4 of 10) osteoarthritis. Two guidelines specified ≥5% weight loss. One guideline specified strategies for maintenance of lost weight; none specifically recommended preventing weight gain. There was discordance between strength of recommendation for weight loss and level of evidence (3 of 15). CONCLUSION: Most CPGs for knee and hip osteoarthritis recommend weight loss to manage obesity in osteoarthritis. As steady weight accumulation is common in adults, preventing weight gain should also be considered as it is a missed opportunity to improve outcomes in osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have explored the impact of low back or lower limb pain severity on recurrent (≥2) falls in older adults. OBJECTIVES: Investigate the association between the severity of low back or lower limb pain, and ≥2 falls or falls-related injuries. METHODS: Community-dwelling Australian males and females in the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP), aged ≥70 years. Self-reported, cross-sectional questionnaire data regarding number of falls and falls-related injuries in the last 12 months; and sites and severity of pain experienced on most days. Adjusted relative risks (RR) were estimated from multivariable Poisson regression models, for males and females separately. RESULTS: Of 14,892 ALSOP participants, 13% (n = 1983) reported ≥2 falls ('recurrent fallers') in the last 12 months. Males and females who reported severe low back, or severe lower limb pain on most days were more likely to report ≥2 falls in the last 12 months compared to those with mild pain (lower back: males RR = 1.70 and females RR = 1.5, p = 0.001; lower limb: males RR = 2.0, p < 0.001 and females RR = 1.4, p = 0.003). Female recurrent fallers who reported severe low back (RR = 1.3, p = 0.029) or lower limb (RR = 1.2, p = 0.024) pain on most days were more likely to report a falls-related injury in the last 12 months compared to females with mild pain. CONCLUSION: Severe low back or lower limb pain was associated with an increased likelihood of recurrent falls (males/females) or falls-related injuries (females only). Assessment of severe low back and lower limb pain should be considered as a priority when undertaking falls-risk evaluation. SIGNIFICANCE: Severe low back pain, or severe lower limb pain is associated with an increased likelihood of recurrent falls in older males and females, and an increased likelihood of falls-related injuries in older female recurrent fallers. Assessment and management of severe low back and lower limb pain should be prioritized when under

Utilising data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial participants aged 70-years, we estimated MAP and variation in MAP defined as within-individual SD of MAP from baseline and first 2 annual visits. Falls were confined to those involving presentation to a hospital. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for associations with falls. Amongst 16,703 participants (1,540 falls), MAP was not associated with falls irrespective of antihypertensive medication status (all: HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01, not on antihypertensive: HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99, 1.02, on antihypertensive: HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.02). Amongst 14,818 participants who remained in the study up to year 2 without falls, 1 unit escalation in MAP variability increased the risk (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.03). Compared with those in the lowest tercile of variability, those in the middle or highest tercile of variability experienced an increased risk of falling (middle: HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.06-1.65; highest: HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.01-1.55). When stratified for antihypertensive medication status, those receiving diuretics (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.00-1.39) or beta-blockers (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.08-1.73) were at increased risk compared to those receiving renin-angiotensin-system acting agents. All results persisted after adjustment for multiple covariates. The association of diuretics and beta-blockers with falls remained significant even after excluding those with history of heart failure. Older community-dwelling adults with high variability in MAP are at increases risk of falls, particularly amongst those receiving beta-blockers or diuretics.

BACKGROUND: Hand osteoarthritis is a common and disabling chronic joint disease with a lack of effective therapies. Emerging evidence suggests the role of local inflammation in causing pain in hand osteoarthritis. Corticosteroids are potent anti-inflammatory drugs used in many rheumatic diseases. The aim of this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial is to determine whether topical corticosteroid reduces pain over 6 weeks in patients with hand osteoarthritis. METHODS: One hundred participants with hand osteoarthritis will be recruited from the community in Melbourne, Australia, and randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive either topical Diprosone OV or placebo ointment administered 3 times daily on the painful hand joints for 6 weeks. The primary outcome is pain reduction (assessed by 100 mm visual analogue scale) at 6 weeks. The secondary outcomes include changes in pain and function assessed using Functional Index for Hand Osteoarthritis, Australian Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index, Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire, and tender and swollen joint count at 6 weeks. Adverse events will be recorded. The primary analysis will be by intention to treat, including all participants in their randomised groups. DISCUSSION: This study will provide high-quality evidence to determine whether topical corticosteroid reduces pain over 6 weeks in patients with hand osteoarthritis, with major clinical and public health importance by informing clinical practice guidelines for the management of hand osteoarthritis and reducing the burden of the disabling disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), ACTRN12620000599976 . Registered 22 May 2020.

BACKGROUND: Knee osteoarthritis is a major cause of pain and disability. Pain control is poor, with most patients remaining in moderate to severe pain. This may be because central causes of pain, a common contributor to knee pain, are not affected by current treatment strategies. Antidepressants, such as amitriptyline, have been used to treat chronic pain in other conditions. The aim of this randomised, double blind, controlled trial, is to determine whether low dose amitriptyline reduces pain in people with painful knee osteoarthritis over 3 months compared to benztropine, an active placebo. METHODS/DESIGN: One hundred and sixty people with painful radiographic knee osteoarthritis will be recruited via clinicians, local and social media advertising. Participants will be randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive either low dose amitriptyline (25 mg) or active placebo (benztropine mesylate, 1 mg) for 3 months. The primary outcome is change from baseline in knee pain (WOMAC pain subscale) at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes include change in function (total WOMAC) and the proportion of individuals achieving a substantial response (≥ 50% reduction in pain intensity, measured by Visual Analog Scale, VAS, from no pain to worst pain imaginable, 0-100 mm) and moderate response (≥ 30% reduction in pain intensity, measured by VAS) at 12 weeks. Intention to treat analyses will be performed. Subgroup analyses will be done. DISCUSSION: This study will provide high level evidence regarding the effectiveness of low dose amitriptyline compared to benztropine in reducing pain and improving function in knee OA. This trial has the potential to provide an effective new therapeutic approach for pain management in knee osteoarthritis, with the potential of ready translation into clinical practice, as it is repurposing an old drug, which is familiar to clinicians and with a well described safety record. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry prior to recruitme

BACKGROUND: Back and lower limb pain have a major impact on physical function and quality of life. While obesity is a modifiable risk factor for musculoskeletal pain, the role of adiposity is less clear. This systematic review aimed to examine the relationship between both adiposity and its distribution and back and lower limb pain. METHODS: A systematic search of electronic databases was conducted to identify studies that examined the association between anthropometric and/or direct measures of adiposity and site specific musculoskeletal pain. Risk of bias was assessed and a best evidence synthesis was performed. RESULTS: A total of 56 studies were identified which examined 4 pain regions, including the lower back (36 studies), hip (two studies), knee (13 studies) and foot (eight studies). 31(55%) studies were assessed as having low to moderate risk of bias. 17(30%) studies were cohort in design. The best evidence synthesis provided evidence of a relationship between central adiposity and low back and knee pain, but not hip or foot pain. There was also evidence of a longitudinal relationship between adiposity and the presence of back, knee and foot pain, as well as incident and increasing foot pain. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review provides evidence of an association between both body fat and its central distribution and low back and knee pain, and a longitudinal relationship between adiposity and back, knee and foot pain. These results highlight the potential for targeting adiposity in the development of novel treatments at these sites.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) due to osteoarthritis associated with obesity defined by body mass index (BMI) or waist circumference (WC) and whether there is discordance between these measures in assessing this risk. METHODS: 36,784 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with BMI and WC measured at 1990-1994 were included. Obesity was defined by BMI (≥30 kg/m2) or WC (men ≥102cm, women ≥88cm). The incidence of TKA between January 2001 and December 2018 was determined by linking participant records to the National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Over 15.4±4.8 years, 2,683 participants underwent TKA. There were 20.4% participants with BMI-defined obesity, 20.8% with WC-defined obesity, and 73.6% without obesity defined by either BMI or WC. Obesity was classified as non-obese (misclassified obesity) in 11.7% of participants if BMI or WC alone was used to define obesity. BMI-defined obesity (HR 2.69, 95%CI 2.48-2.92), WC-defined obesity (HR 2.28, 95%CI 2.10-2.48), and obesity defined by either BMI or WC (HR 2.53, 95%CI 2.33-2.74) were associated with an increased risk of TKA. Compared with those without obesity, participants with misclassified obesity had an increased risk of TKA (HR 2.06, 95%CI 1.85-2.30). 22.7% of TKA in the community can be attributable to BMI-defined obesity, and a further 3.3% of TKA can be identified if WC was also used to define obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Both BMI and WC should be used to identify obese individuals who are at risk of TKA for osteoarthritis and should be targeted for prevention and treatment.

BACKGROUND: To examine the association between circulating 25(OH)D concentrations and incidence of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in a prospective cohort study. METHODS: This study examined a random sample of 2651 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who had 25(OH)D concentrations measured from dried blood spots collected in 1990-1994. Participants who underwent total hip replacement for osteoarthritis between January 2001 and December 2018 were identified by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in relation to 25(OH)D concentrations, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Eighty-six men and eighty-seven women had a total hip replacement for osteoarthritis. Compared with men in the lowest (1st) quartile of 25(OH)D concentration, the HR for total hip replacement was 2.32 (95% CI 1.05, 5.13) for those in the 2nd quartile, 2.77 (95% CI 1.28, 6.00) for those in the 3rd quartile, and 1.73 (95% CI 0.75, 4.02) for those in the highest quartile of 25(OH)D concentrations (p for trend 0.02). There was little evidence of an association in women. CONCLUSIONS: Higher circulating 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with an increased risk of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in men but not in women. Although the underlying mechanism warrants further investigation, our findings highlight the need to determine the optimal levels of circulating 25(OH)D to reduce the risk of hip osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether atorvastatin slows tibial cartilage volume loss in patients with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. METHODS: Participants ages 40-70 years were randomized to receive oral atorvastatin (40 mg once daily) (n = 151) or matching placebo (n = 153). The primary end point was annual percentage change in tibial cartilage volume over 2 years, assessed using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The prespecified secondary end points were progression of cartilage defects and bone marrow lesions over 2 years, which were assessed using MRI and change in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) Index pain, stiffness, and function scores. RESULTS: A total of 248 of 304 participants (81.6%) completed the trial (mean age 55.7 years; 55.6% women). The annual change in tibial cartilage volume differed minimally between the atorvastatin and placebo groups (mean change -1.66% versus -2.17%, between-group difference 0.50% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -0.17%, 1.17%]). There were no significant differences in the progression of cartilage defects (odds ratio [OR] 0.86 [95% CI 0.52, 1.41]) or progression of bone marrow lesions (OR 1.00 [95% CI 0.62, 1.63]). Moreover, there were no significant differences in change in WOMAC pain, stiffness, or function scores over 2 years between the atorvastatin and placebo groups (mean change in pain score -36.0 versus -29.5, adjusted difference -2.7 [95% CI -27.1, 21.7]; mean change in stiffness score -14.2 versus -11.8, adjusted difference -0.2 [95% CI -12.2, 11.8]; mean change in function score -89.4 versus -87.5, adjusted difference 0.3 [95% CI -83.1, 83.6]). The incidence of adverse events (AEs) was similar between the atorvastatin and placebo groups (57 [37.7%] versus 52 [34.0%] experiencing AEs). CONCLUSION: Treatment with oral atorvastatin (40 mg once daily), compared to placebo, did not significantly reduce cartilage volu

BACKGROUND: To determine the relationship between clusters of back pain and joint pain and prescription opioid dispensing. METHODS: Of 11,221 middle-aged participants from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health, clusters of back pain and joint pain from 2001 to 2013 were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Prescription opioid dispensing from 2003 to 2015 was identified by linking the cohort to Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme dispensing data. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between back pain and joint pain clusters and dispensing of prescription opioids. The proportion of opioids dispensed in the population attributable to back and join pain was calculated. RESULTS: Over 12 years, 68.5 and 72.0% women reported frequent or persistent back pain and joint pain, respectively. There were three clusters ('none or infrequent', 'frequent' and 'persistent') for both back pain and joint pain. Those in the persistent back pain cluster had a 6.33 (95%CI 4.38-9.16) times increased risk of having > 50 opioid prescriptions and those in persistent joint pain cluster had a 6.19 (95%CI 4.18-9.16) times increased risk of having > 50 opioid prescriptions. Frequent and persistent back and joint pain clusters together explained 41.7% (95%CI 34.9-47.8%) of prescription opioid dispensing. Women in the frequent and persistent back pain and joint pain clusters were less educated and reported more depression and physical inactivity. CONCLUSION: Back pain and joint pain are major contributors to opioid prescription dispensing in community-based middle-aged women. Additional approaches to reduce opioid use, targeted at those with frequent and persistent back pain and joint pain, will be important in order to reduce the use of opioids and their consequent harm in this population.

BACKGROUND: To examine the associations between hip muscle cross-sectional area and hip pain and function in community-based individuals with mild-to-moderate hip osteoarthritis. METHODS: This study included 27 participants with mild-to-moderate hip osteoarthritis. Cross-sectional area of hip muscles, including psoas major, rectus femoris, gluteus maximus, gluteus medius and minimus, adductor longus and magnus, obturator internus, and obturator externus, were measured from magnetic resonance images. Hip pain and function were evaluated using the Hip Disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) categorised into 5 subscales: pain, symptoms, activity of daily living, sport and recreation function, and hip-related quality of life (for each subscale 0 representing extreme problems and 100 representing no problems). RESULTS: Mean age of the 27 participants was 63.2 (SD 7.6) years and 66.7% (n = 18) were female. After adjusting for age and gender, greater cross-sectional area of adductor longus and magnus was associated with a higher HOOS score in quality of life (regression coefficient 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2-2.7, p = 0.02), activity of daily living (regression coefficient 1.3, 95% CI 0.1-2.6, p = 0.04) and sport and recreation function (regression coefficient 1.6, 95% CI 0.1-3.0, p = 0.04). There was a trend towards an association between greater cross-sectional area of psoas major and a higher quality of life score (regression coefficient 3.6, 95% CI - 0.5 to 7.7, p = 0.08). The cross-sectional area of hip muscles was not significantly associated with HOOS pain or symptom score. CONCLUSION: Greater cross-sectional area of hip adductors was associated with better function and quality of life in individuals with mild-to-moderate hip osteoarthritis. Greater cross-sectional area of hip flexors might be associated with better quality of life. These findings, while need to be confirmed in longitudinal studies, suggest that targeting the hip adductor and fl

BACKGROUND: Histological and epidemiological data suggest that increased signal intensity at the proximal patellar tendon on magnetic resonance imaging is a response to tendon loading. As patellofemoral geometry is a mediator of loading, we examined the association between patellofemoral geometry and the prevalence of increased signal intensity at the patellar tendon in community-based middle-aged adults. METHODS: Two hundred-one adults aged 25-60 years in a study of obesity and musculoskeletal health had the patellar tendon assessed from magnetic resonance imaging. Increased signal intensity at the proximal patellar tendon was defined as hyper-intense regions of characteristic pattern, size and distribution on both T1- and T2-weighted sequences. Indices of patellofemoral geometry, including Insall-Salvati ratio, patellofemoral congruence angle, sulcus angle, and lateral condyle-patella angle, were measured from magnetic resonance imaging using validated methods. Binary logistic regression was used to examine the association between patellofemoral geometrical indices and the prevalence of increased signal intensity at the patellar tendon. RESULTS: The prevalence of increased signal intensity at the patellar tendon was 37.3%. A greater Insall-Salvati ratio (odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.66-0.97 per 0.1 change in the ratio, p = 0.02), indicative of a higher-riding patella, and a larger patellofemoral congruence angle (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98 per 5 degree change in the angle, p = 0.01), indicating a more laterally placed patella, were associated with reduced odds of increased signal intensity at the patellar tendon. Sulcus angle and lateral condyle-patella angle were not significantly associated with the odds of increased signal intensity at the patellar tendon. CONCLUSIONS: In community-based asymptomatic middle-aged adults, increased signal intensity at the patellar tendon was common and associated with Insall-Salvati ratio and

OBJECTIVE: There are concerns that lumbar spine imaging represents low value care. Our aim was to examine the use of lumbar spine imaging [radiography, computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] over 20 years, and costs and person-level characteristics of imaging in a large cohort of Australian women. METHODS: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) is a longitudinal population-based survey of women randomly selected from national health insurance scheme (Medicare) database. This study examined 13458 women born in 1973-1978 who consented to link their ALSWH and Medical Benefits Scheme records. Self-reported data on demographics, body mass index, depression, physical and mental health, and back pain were collected in each survey performed in 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015. Data on lumbar spine imaging from 1996 to 2015 were obtained from the Medical Benefits Scheme database. RESULTS: 38.9% of women underwent some form of lumbar spine imaging over 20 years. While radiography increased from 1996 to 2011 and decreased thereafter, CT and MRI continued to increase from 1996 to 2015. In women with self-reported back pain, depression and poorer physical health were associated with imaging, with no significant differences in types of imaging. Based on imaging rates in ALSWH, the estimated costs for Australian women aged 30-39 years were AU$51,735,649 over 2011-2015. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine imaging was common in population-based Australian women, with rates increasing over 20 years. Depression and poor physical health were associated with lumbar spine imaging. Raising awareness of this in clinicians is likely to result in significant cost savings if clinical guidelines are followed, with the potential of freeing resources for high value care and health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether metformin use was associated with knee cartilage volume loss over 4 years and risk of total knee replacement over 6 years in obese individuals with knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: This study analysed the Osteoarthritis Initiative participants with radiographic knee osteoarthritis (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2) who were obese (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30 kg/m2). Participants were classified as metformin users if they self-reported regular metformin use at baseline, 1-year and 2-year follow-up (n = 56). Non-users of metformin were defined as participants who did not report the use of metformin at any visit from baseline to 4-year follow-up (n = 762). Medial and lateral cartilage volume (femoral condyle and tibial plateau) were assessed using magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and 4 years. Total knee replacement over 6 years was assessed. General linear model and binary logistic regression were used for statistical analyses. RESULTS: The rate of medial cartilage volume loss was lower in metformin users compared with non-users (0.71% vs. 1.57% per annum), with a difference of - 0.86% per annum (95% CI - 1.58% to - 0.15%, p = 0.02), after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, pain score, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, self-reported diabetes, and weight change over 4 years. Metformin use was associated with a trend towards a significant reduction in risk of total knee replacement over 6 years (odds ratio 0.30, 95% CI 0.07-1.30, p = 0.11), after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, pain score, and self-reported diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that metformin use may have a beneficial effect on long-term knee joint outcomes in those with knee osteoarthritis and obesity. Randomised controlled trials are needed to confirm these findings and determine whether metformin would be a potential disease-modifying drug for knee osteoarthritis with the obese phenotype.

OBJECTIVES: Low back pain is the largest contributor to disability worldwide. The role of body composition as a risk factor for back pain remains unclear. Our aim was to examine the relationship between fat mass and fat distribution on back pain intensity and disability using validated tools over 3 years. METHODS: Participants (aged 25-60 years) were assessed at baseline using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) to measure body composition. All participants completed the Chronic Pain Grade Scale at baseline and 3-year follow-up. Of the 150 participants, 123 (82%) completed the follow-up. RESULTS: Higher baseline body mass index (BMI) and fat mass (total, trunk, upper limb, lower limb, android, and gynoid) were all associated with high intensity back pain at either baseline and/or follow-up (total fat mass: multivariable OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09, p < 0.001). There were similar findings for all fat mass measures and high levels of back disability. A higher android to gynoid ratio was associated with high intensity back pain (multivariable OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.08, p = 0.009). There were no associations between lean mass and back pain. CONCLUSIONS: This cohort study provides evidence for the important role of fat mass, specifically android fat relative to gynoid fat, on back pain and disability.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that knee pain not only is a consequence of structural deterioration in osteoarthritis (OA) but also contributes to structural progression. Clarifying this is important because targeting the factors related to knee pain may offer a clinical approach for slowing the progression of knee OA. The aim of this study was to examine whether knee pain over 1 year predicted cartilage volume loss, incidence and progression of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) over 4 years. METHODS: Osteoarthritis Initiative participants with no ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≤ 1) (n = 2120) and with ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade > 2) (n = 2249) were examined. Knee pain was assessed at baseline and 1 year using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC). Knee pain patterns were categorised as no pain (WOMAC pain < 5 at baseline and 1 year), fluctuating pain (WOMAC pain > 5 at either time point) and persistent pain (WOMAC pain > 5 at both time points). Cartilage volume, incidence and progression of ROA were assessed using magnetic resonance imaging and x-rays at baseline and 4-years. RESULTS: In both non-ROA and ROA, greater baseline WOMAC knee pain score was associated with increased medial and lateral cartilage volume loss (p ≤ 0.001), incidence (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.13) and progression (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.10) of ROA. Non-ROA and ROA participants with fluctuating and persistent knee pain had increased cartilage volume loss compared with those with no pain (p for trend ≤ 0.01). Non-ROA participants with fluctuating knee pain had increased risk of incident ROA (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.54), corresponding to a number needed to harm of 19.5. In ROA the risk of progressive ROA increased in participants with persistent knee pain (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.28-2.60), corresponding to a number needed to harm of 9.6. CONCLUSIONS: Knee pain over 1 year predicted accelerated cartilage volume loss and increased risk of incident and progressive ROA. Ear

BACKGROUND: Knee pain is common with obesity and weight gain being important risk factors. Previous clinical trials have focused on overweight or obese adults with knee pain and osteoarthritis and demonstrated modest effects of intense weight loss programs on reducing knee pain despite very significant weight loss. There has been no lifestyle intervention that targets community-based adults to test its effect on prevention of knee pain. We aimed to determine the effect of a simple low-intensity self-management lifestyle intervention (HeLP-her), proven in randomised controlled trials to improve lifestyle and prevent weight gain, on knee pain in community-based young to middle-aged rural women. METHODS: A 1-year pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted in 649 community-based women (aged 18-50 years) to receive either the HeLP-her program (consisting of one group session, monthly SMS text messages, one phone coaching session, and a program manual) or one general women's health education session. Secondary analyses were performed in 390 women who had knee pain measured using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) at baseline and 12-month follow-up. "Any knee pain" was defined as a WOMAC pain score ≥ 1. Knee pain worsening was defined as an increase in WOMAC pain score over 12 months. RESULTS: Thirty-five percent of women had "any knee pain" at baseline. The risk of knee pain worsening did not differ between the intervention and control groups over 12 months. For women with any knee pain at baseline, those in the intervention arm had a lower risk of knee pain worsening compared with those in the control arm (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.14-1.01, p = 0.05), with a stronger effect observed in women with body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2 (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09-0.87, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In community-based young to middle-aged women, a simple low-intensity lifestyle program reduced the risk of knee pain worsening in those with any knee

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of female reproductive and hormonal factors with incidence of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis (OA), and to determine whether the associations differ according to overweight/obesity status. METHODS: This study included 22,289 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Data on age at menarche, pregnancy, parity, years of menstruation, oral contraceptive (OC) use, menopausal status, and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were collected in 1990-1994. Incidence of TKA during 2001-2013 was determined by linking cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. All analyses were adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI) at midlife, change in BMI (from early reproductive age to midlife), country of birth, physical activity, smoking, and education level. RESULTS: Over the course of 12.7 years, 1,208 TKAs for OA were identified. Ever being pregnant was associated with increased risk of TKA (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.06-1.63]). Parity was positively associated with risk of TKA (P for trend = 0.003). OC users had increased risk of TKA compared with non-users (for OC use of <5 years, HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.08-1.45]; for OC use of ≥5 years, HR 1.17 [95% CI 1.00-1.37]). A 1-year increase in menstruation was associated with a 1% decrease in risk of TKA (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.97-0.99]). These associations remained significant only in women of normal weight at early reproductive age. Current HRT users had increased risk of TKA compared with non-users (HR 1.37 [95% CI 1.14-1.64]); the association was significant only in non-obese women at midlife. CONCLUSION: Reproductive and hormonal factors were associated with risk of knee OA. These associations remained significant in women of normal weight at early reproductive age and in non-obese women at midlife. Further work is needed to understand the complex effect of these factors on knee OA.

The aim of this systematic review is to assess patient-related factors affecting glycaemic control among people with type 2 diabetes in the Arabian Gulf Council countries. MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were searched from their date of inception to May 2016. Two researchers independently identified eligible studies and assessed the risk of bias. A total of 13 studies met the inclusion criteria. One study was population based, six recruited participants from multiple centres, and the remaining were single centred. The majority of the studies were of low to moderate quality. Factors associated with poor glycaemic control include longer duration of diabetes, low level of education, poor compliance to diet and medication, poor attitude towards the disease, poor self-management behaviour, anxiety, depression, renal impairment, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia. Healthcare providers should be aware of these factors and provide appropriate education and care especially for those who have poor glycaemic control. Innovative educational programs should be implemented in the healthcare systems to improve patient compliance and practices. A variation in the results of the included studies was observed, and some potentially important risk factors such as dietary habits, physical activity, family support, and cognitive function were not adequately addressed. Further research is needed in this area.

BACKGROUND: Approaches for the prevention and treatment of hip osteoarthritis (OA) remain limited. There are recent data suggesting that low birth weight (LBW) and preterm birth may be risk factors for hip osteoarthritis. This has the potential to change the current paradigm of hip osteoarthritis prevention by targeting early life factors. The aim of this review was to examine the available evidence for an association of LBW and preterm birth with hip OA. The potential cost implications associated with total hip arthroplasty were also evaluated. METHODS: Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and Cinahl were searched up until August 2017 using MeSH terms and key words. Methodological quality was evaluated using the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) quality assessment tool. Qualitative evidence synthesis was performed to summarise the results. Bradford Hill's criteria for causation including the temporal relationship, consistency, strength of the association, specificity, dose-response relationship, and analogy were used to assess the evidence for causation. Economic modelling was used to calculate the potential economic burden associated with LBW or preterm birth related total hip arthroplasty using Australian data from 2012 to 2015. RESULTS: Five studies, ranging from high to low quality, were included. Hip bone shape abnormalities examined included developmental hip dysplasia and immature hip, and hip osteoarthritis included osteophytes and total hip arthroplasty. A causal link between low birth weight or preterm birth and hip osteoarthritis was found. Of the 30,477 total hip arthroplasties performed for hip osteoarthritis in Australia in 2015, 5791 were estimated to be born preterm and 5273 with low birth weight. This equated to a potential total hip arthroplasty cost of AU$145,136,082 and AU$132,150,222 for these subgroups, respectively. CONCLUSION: Available data suggest that low birth weight and preterm birth are associated with hip bone shape abnormalities and h

OBJECTIVE: Back pain causes greater disability worldwide than any other condition, with women more likely to experience back pain than men. Our aim was to identify modifiable risk factors for back pain in middle-aged women. METHODS: Women born between 1946 and 1951 were randomly selected from the national health insurance scheme database to participate in The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Self-reported data on back pain in the last 12 months, and on weight, physical activity, and other sociodemographic factors, were collected in 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013. In 1998, a total of 12,338 women completed the survey and 10,011 (74%) completed the 2013 survey. RESULTS: At baseline, median (range) age was 49.5 years (44.6-53.5 years), and 54% reported back pain. In multivariate analysis, baseline weight and depression were positive predictors of back pain over each 3-year survey interval and over the following 15 years, whereas participation in vigorous physical activity was protective. The effects of weight on back pain were most marked in women with a body mass index of ≥25 kg/m2 . CONCLUSION: Back pain is common in middle-aged women. Increased weight, weight gain, and depression were independent predictors of back pain over 15 years, whereas participation in vigorous physical activity was protective. Targeting these lifestyle factors is an important area for future research on reducing the burden of back pain in middle-aged women.

Back pain causes enormous financial and disability burden worldwide, which could potentially be reduced by understanding its determinants to develop effective prevention strategies. Our aim was to identify whether modifiable risk factors, weight and physical activity, are predictive of back pain in young adult women.Women born between 1973 and 1978 were randomly selected from the national health insurance scheme database to participate in The Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health. Self-reported data on back pain in the last 12 months, weight, height, age, education status, physical activity, and depression were collected in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2012. In 2000, 9688 women completed the questionnaire and 83% completed follow-up 12 years later.At baseline, median age was 24.6 years and 41% had self-reported back pain. For every 5 kg higher weight at baseline, there was a 5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4%-6%) increased risk of back pain over the next 12 years. Higher weight at each survey also predicted back pain risk 3 years later (P < 0.001). The effects of weight on back pain were most significant in those with BMI ≥25 kg/m and were observed at all levels of physical activity. Inadequate physical activity and depression were independent predictors of back pain over the following 12 years (both P < 0.001), after adjusting for age, weight, height, and education status.Back pain is common in community-based young adult women. Higher weight, inadequate levels of physical activity, and depression were all independent predictors of back pain over the following decade. Furthermore, the adverse effects of weight on back pain were not mitigated by physical activity. Our findings highlight the role of both higher weight and physical inactivity in back pain among young women and suggest potential opportunities for future prevention.

Two systematic reviews concluded that there was limited evidence to support an association between physical activity and sedentary behavior and developing low back pain (LBP). The aim of this study was to examine the associations of physical activity and television viewing time with LBP intensity and disability in community-based adults.Five thousand fifty-eight participants (44% men) of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study had physical activity and television viewing time measured in 1999 to 2000, 2004 to 2005, and 2011 to 2012, and LBP intensity and disability assessed in 2013 to 2014 using the Chronic Pain Grade Questionnaire. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to estimate the odds ratio for LBP intensity and disability associated with physical activity and television viewing time. Analyses were adjusted for age, education, smoking, dietary guideline index score, body mass index, and mental component summary score. To test whether associations of physical activity or television viewing time with LBP intensity and disability were modified by sex, obesity, or age, interactions were tested using the likelihood ratio test.As gender modified the associations between physical activity and television viewing time and LBP disability (P = 0.05), men and women were examined separately. A total of 81.7% men and 82.1% women had LBP. Most men (63.6%) and women (60.2%) had low intensity LBP with fewer having high intensity LBP (18.1% men, 21.5% women). Most participants had no LBP disability (74.5% men, 71.8% women) with the remainder reporting low (15.8% men, 15.3% women) or high (9.7% men, 12.9% women) LBP disability. Insufficient physical activity (<2.5 hours/week) was not associated with LBP intensity or disability. High television viewing time (≥2 hours/day) was associated with greater prevalence of LBP disability in women (low disability OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.04-1.73; high disability OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.72).Although it needs to be confirmed in RCTs

BACKGROUND: Recently, there has been both immense interest and controversy regarding a randomised, controlled trial which showed antibiotics to be effective in the treatment of chronic low back pain (disc herniation with Modic Type 1 change). While this research has the potential to result in a paradigm shift in the treatment of low back pain, several questions remain unanswered. This systematic review aims to address these questions by examining the role of bacteria in low back pain and the relationship between bacteria and Modic change. METHODS: We conducted electronic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE and included studies that examined the relationship between bacteria and back pain or Modic change. Studies were rated based on their methodological quality, a best-evidence synthesis was used to summarise the results, and Bradford Hill's criteria were used to assess the evidence for causation. RESULTS: Eleven studies were identified. The median (range) age and percentage of female participants was 44.7 (41-46.4) years and 41.5% (27-59%), respectively, and in 7 of the 11 studies participants were diagnosed with disc herniation. Nine studies examined the presence of bacteria in spinal disc material and all identified bacteria, with the pooled estimate of the proportion with positive samples being 34%. Propionibacterium acnes was the most prevalent bacteria, being present in 7 of the 9 studies, with median (minimum, maximum) 45.0% (0-86.0) of samples positive. The best evidence synthesis found moderate evidence for a relationship between the presence of bacteria and both low back pain with disc herniation and Modic Type 1 change with disc herniation. There was modest evidence for a cause-effect relationship. CONCLUSIONS: We found that bacteria were common in the spinal disc material of people undergoing spinal surgery. There was moderate evidence for a relationship between the presence of bacteria and both low back pain with disc herniation and Modic Type 1 change associ

OBJECTIVE: The data are conflicting for the association between the index-to-ring finger length ratio (2D:4D) and the risk of OA. The aim of this cohort study was to examine the relationship between 2D:4D and the risk of severe knee and hip OA requiring total joint replacement. METHODS: A total of 14 511 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study had 2D:4D assessed from hand photocopies. The incidence of total knee replacement and total hip replacement between 2001 and 2011 was determined by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Over an average 10.5 years of follow-up, 580 participants had total knee replacement and 499 had total hip replacement. Greater right 2D:4D [hazard ratio (HR) 0.91 for a s.d. increase in 2D:4D, 95% CI 0.84, 0.99, P = 0.03] and average right and left 2D:4D (HR 0.91 for a s.d. increase in 2D:4D, 95% CI 0.84, 0.99, P = 0.02) were associated with a reduced incidence of total knee replacement. These associations persisted when participants whose fingers had any features that might have affected the validity of 2D:4D measurements were excluded. No significant associations were observed between 2D:4D and the incidence of total hip replacement. CONCLUSION: A lower 2D:4D is associated with an increased risk of severe knee OA requiring total knee replacement, but not the risk of severe hip OA. The underlying mechanisms for the association warrant further investigation.