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1. The split ladder of participation: A literature review and dynamic path forward

Author

Hurlbert, M. Gupta, J. and Hurlbert, M. Gupta, J.

Abstract

Participation of people in decision making and tackling complex problems where there is lack of consensus on the science and relevant values continues to be an important research topic. The 2015 Split Ladder of Participation offered a diagnostic and methodological framework cited in 162 papers. This paper addresses the question: What does a literature review of the Split Ladder of Participation reveal about engaging people in policy problems, effecting transformational change, and how can this diagnostic and strategic tool be improved? A systematic literature review revealed papers that disclose transformational change, or triple loop learning requires: strong social science; social and natural interdisciplinary science; and considerations of uncertainty in environmental science together with uncertainty of values and considerations of power. Policy problems with low levels of trust offer opportunities to engage interest and participation in their resolution. Governments over-utilizing methods limiting participation, may lead to lock-in. Focusing on complex, interconnected problems through participation creates an enduring policy and science, interdisciplinary innovation space. Recognizing participation that is plural, amorphous, and fluid draws attention to power, multiple stakeholder framings of complex issues, advances social learning changing values, norms, power, and the very ethics of science (where social and natural/physical scientists acknowledge and share their power with people), and ultimately advances environmental justice.

Published
2024
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3. 217 Time-to-event machine learning prediction of metastatic recurrence of localized melanoma

Author

Wan, G., primary, Leung, B., additional, DeSimone, M., additional, Nguyen, N., additional, Rajeh, A., additional, Collier, M., additional, Rashdan, H., additional, Roster, K., additional, Asgari, M., additional, Gusev, A., additional, Stagner, A., additional, Lian, C., additional, Hurlbert, M., additional, Yu, K., additional, Tsao, H., additional, Liu, F., additional, Sorger, P., additional, and Semenov, Y., additional

Published
2023
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4. Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality

Author

Rammelt, C..F, Gupta, J., Liverman, D., Scholtens, J., Ciobanu, D., Abrams, J., Bai, X., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hurlbert, M, Aoki Inoue, C.Y., Jacobson, L., Lade, S.J., Lenton, T.M., Armstrong McKay, D.I., Nakicenovic, N., Okereke, C., Otto, I.M., Pereira, L.M., Prodani, K., Rockström, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Verburg, P.H., Zimm, C., Rammelt, C..F, Gupta, J., Liverman, D., Scholtens, J., Ciobanu, D., Abrams, J., Bai, X., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hurlbert, M, Aoki Inoue, C.Y., Jacobson, L., Lade, S.J., Lenton, T.M., Armstrong McKay, D.I., Nakicenovic, N., Okereke, C., Otto, I.M., Pereira, L.M., Prodani, K., Rockström, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Verburg, P.H., and Zimm, C.

Abstract

10 november 2022, Contains fulltext : 286352.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)

Published
2023

8. Earth system law: Exploring new frontiers in legal science

Author

Kotzé, L.J., Kim, R.E., Blanchard, C., Gellers, J.C., Holley, C., Petersmann, M., van Asselt, H., Biermann, F., Hurlbert, M., Kotzé, L.J., Kim, R.E., Blanchard, C., Gellers, J.C., Holley, C., Petersmann, M., van Asselt, H., Biermann, F., and Hurlbert, M.

Abstract

The Anthropocene requires of us to rethink global governance challenges and effective responses with a more holistic understanding of the earth system as a single intertwined social-ecological system. Law, in particular, will have to embrace such a holistic earth system perspective in order to deal more effectively with the Anthropocene's predicaments. While a growing number of scholars have tried to reimagine law and legal scholarship in a more holistic way, these attempts remain siloed. What is required is a shared epistemic framework to enable and enhance collaborative intradisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and co-learning that go hand in hand with thorough transdisciplinary stakeholder engagement. We argue that the nascent concept of earth system law offers such an overarching epistemic framework. This article serves as an invitation to fellow explorers from various legal fields, other disciplines, and from a wide range of stakeholders to explore new frontiers in earth system law. Our aim is to further stimulate the study of earth system law, and to encourage collaboration and co-learning in a fertile epistemic space that we share.

Published
2022

9. Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality

Author

Rammelt, C.F., Gupta, J., Liverman, D., Scholtens, J., Ciobanu, D., Abrams, J.F., Bai, X., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hurlbert, M., Inoue, C.Y.A., Jacobson, L., Lade, S.J., Lenton, T.M., McKay, D., Nakicenovic, N., Okereke, C., Otto, I.M., Pereira, L.M., Prodani, K., Rockström, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Verburg, P.H., Zimm, C., Rammelt, C.F., Gupta, J., Liverman, D., Scholtens, J., Ciobanu, D., Abrams, J.F., Bai, X., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hurlbert, M., Inoue, C.Y.A., Jacobson, L., Lade, S.J., Lenton, T.M., McKay, D., Nakicenovic, N., Okereke, C., Otto, I.M., Pereira, L.M., Prodani, K., Rockström, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Verburg, P.H., and Zimm, C.

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.

Published
2022
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11. Climate change policies and agendas: Facing implementation challenges and guiding responses

Author

Alves, F, Leal Filho, W, Casaleiro, P, Nagy, GJ, Diaz, H, Al-Amin, AQ, de Andrade Guerra, JBSO, Hurlbert, M, Farooq, H, Klavins, M, Saroar, M, Lorencova, EK, Suresh, J, Soares, A, Morgado, F, O'Hare, P, Wolf, F, Azeiteiro, UM, Alves, F, Leal Filho, W, Casaleiro, P, Nagy, GJ, Diaz, H, Al-Amin, AQ, de Andrade Guerra, JBSO, Hurlbert, M, Farooq, H, Klavins, M, Saroar, M, Lorencova, EK, Suresh, J, Soares, A, Morgado, F, O'Hare, P, Wolf, F, and Azeiteiro, UM

Abstract

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Climate policies are essential to mitigate climate change and to develop successful adaptation processes. However, there is a paucity of international studies that analyse the status of climate change policies. This paper reports on research undertaken in a sample of 13 highly diverse countries, in regards to their geography, socioeconomic development, vulnerability elements, adaptation, and climate-risks. The results draw attention to the global spread and standardisation of climate change policies, namely through the adoption of comprehensive National Adaptation Plans/Strategies (NAPs/NASs) that include mitigation measures and evaluation mechanisms. Although NAPs tend to take into account different non-governmental stakeholders, they are still mainly state-centred (i.e. their steering and implementation are the responsibility of each country´s Ministry of the Environment) in most of the 13 countries in which this study was carried out. The results show that NAPs’ objectives mainly reflect more a global agenda and pay less attention to national/regional vulnerabilities and contexts. In fact, despite different socioeconomic levels of development, diverse climate-risks, and dissimilar vulnerability and readiness status among countries, the examined NAPs tend to focus on the same critical sectors and objectives. Notwithstanding their similarities, our results highlight two different logics of adaptation reflected on the NAPs: one focused on economic risks and opportunities, characteristic of developed countries; and others focused on natural resources and conservation, characteristic of developing countries.

Published
2019

14. The adaptive capacity of institutions in Canada, Argentina, and Chile to droughts and floods

Author

Hurlbert, M. Gupta, J. and Hurlbert, M. Gupta, J.

Abstract

The increasing evidence of global warming calls on all states to enhance their adaptive capacity to deal with climate change. This paper compares the adaptive capacity of two Canadian provinces, the province of Mendoza, Argentina and the administrative region of Coquimbo, Chile in relation to the vulnerability of farmers to droughts and floods by applying the adaptive capacity wheel (ACW). It concludes that Saskatchewan and Alberta, Canada are particularly weak in terms of double- and triple-loop learning and in developing adaptive capacity in an equitable manner, probably attributable to strong climate scepticism in society and the weak economy. In the developing countries of Chile and Argentina, resources to assist with adaptation are often lacking; in Coquimbo, future learning is precarious because of information deficits in relation to data, memory, trust, and responsiveness; in Mendoza, institutions lack variety (redundancy of programs), resources, and governance processes are inadequately responsive. The paper makes contributions at the regional level by recommending that specific institutional weaknesses and lack of responsiveness be remedied by adopting appropriate missing instruments (perhaps, for example, water transfer provisions in Mendoza). New findings are made in relation to the dimensions of fair governance and learning capacity in the ACW. While learning capacity was closely linked to the dimension of leadership, the deficit of equity was closely linked to other indicators of fair governance (legitimacy, responsiveness, and accountability).

Published
2017
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15. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

Author

Hurlbert, M., Gupta, J., and Governance and Inclusive Development (GID, AISSR, FMG)

Abstract

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.

Published
2016

16. Adaptive governance of disaster: Drought and flood in rural areas

Author

Hurlbert, M., Gupta, Joyeeta, Verrest, Hebe, and Governance and Inclusive Development (GID, AISSR, FMG)

Abstract

There is considerable research on the vulnerability of agricultural producers to climate change; we know that the institutional governance system is an important component of adaptive capacity impacting on the agricultural producers’ livelihood capitals that determine their livelihood success; and we have knowledge of best practices of adaptive policies. However, there is much we don’t know. We don’t know how the problems of d&f are being framed by policymakers, the types of governance instruments (regulatory, market, etc.) that promote agricultural livelihood capitals, the impacts different instruments have on agricultural producers and their livelihoods, and which instruments promote social learning, trust, and inclusive development, all given perceptions of risk and uncertainty. Hence, this research answers the question: How can a theoretical and policy framework (norms, principles, and instruments) be designed to build capacity for rural agricultural producers to respond to the increasing likelihood of d&f, defined by uncertainty? The research was carried out in four study areas: two in Canada, one in Chile, and one in Argentina. All case study areas are glacier fed, dry land riverbeds, with some irrigation and experience with d&f. All four study areas have very disparate governance structures, especially in relation to water (a fundamental system in relation to d&f). The two Canadian study areas represent a developed country, and Chile and Argentina developing countries. These differences allowed for comparison of institutional practices. The thesis answers the question of how a policy framework can be designed to build the capacity of agricultural producers to cope with d&f by assessing which instruments are and are not working in the context of the drivers with an expanded analysis of adaptive governance (policy framing, participation, and learning) and a focus on redesign.

Published
2016

41. Deliberative democracy in Canadian watershed governance

Author

Hurlbert, M. and Evan Andrews

Subjects
Canada, lcsh:Hydraulic engineering, water governance, lcsh:TC1-978, Deliberative democracy, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, watershed, Alberta
Abstract

Bottom-up watershed governance that features citizen engagement in decision-making is touted as a panacea for better social and environmental outcomes. However, there is limited agreement on how exactly this engagement occurs, and how it can be assessed. Water decision-making may result in better social outcomes when decision-making is deliberative and democratic. This article brings together a cross-disciplinary framework to assess deliberative democratic practices in local water councils (LWCs) in the Prairie Provinces, Canada. We apply this framework to assess and compare LWCS, using data from a review of secondary sources and semistructured qualitative interviews with members of LWCs. Our framework was useful for identifying strengths and shortcomings of deliberative democracy within and across LWCs. The strengths of the Manitoba model are its significant mandate and stable tax funding. Alberta’s strengths are in the areas of community representation and significant contested deliberation. Saskatchewan’s strengths are its interconnectedness with other organisations, sectors, and governments. While LWCs have made important contributions to local watershed governance, a consideration and comparison of deliberative democratic practices offers options for policy change strengthening the deliberative democratic practices of LWCs.

43. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Drought

Author

Warren, Jim, Diaz, Harry, and Hurlbert, Margot

Subjects
Environmental Science, Social Science, bic Book Industry Communication::K Economics, finance, business & management::KC Economics::KCN Environmental economics, bic Book Industry Communication::P Mathematics & science::PS Biology, life sciences::PST Botany & plant sciences
Abstract

Although there is considerable historical literature describing the social and economic impact of drought on the prairies in the 1930s, little has been written about the challenges presented by drought in more contemporary times. The drought of 2001-02 was, for example, the most recent large-area, intense, and prolonged drought in Canada and one of Canada's most costly natural disasters in a century. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Drought describes the impacts of droughts and the adaptations made in prairie agriculture over recent decades. These adaptations have enhanced the capacity of rural communities to withstand drought. However, despite the high levels of technical adaptation that have occurred, and the existing human capital and vibrant social and information networks, agricultural producers in the prairie region remain vulnerable to severe droughts that last more than a couple of years. Research findings and projections suggest that droughts could become more frequent, more severe, and of longer duration in the region over the course of the 21st century. This book provides insights into the conditions generating these challenges and the measures required to reduce vulnerability of prairie communities to them. Developing greater understanding of the social forces and conditions that have contributed to enhanced resilience, as well as those which detract from successful adaptation, is a principal theme of the book. To that end, the book examines drought through an interdisciplinary lens encompassing climate science and the social sciences. Two of the chapters are based on the drought experiences of other countries in order to provide a comparative assessment.

Published
2016

48. Comparing data quality of client intake forms by interview mode: results of a pilot study on the use of audio computer-assisted self-interview (ACASI) in the Avon Breast Health Outreach Program.

Author

Hallum-Montes, R., Senter, L., D'Souza, R., Hurlbert, M., Gates-Ferris, K., and Anastario, M.

Subjects
*CANCER research, *INTERVIEWING, *RESEARCH, *MEDICAL informatics, *TECHNOLOGY
Abstract

Background: Numerous studies have documented the relative advantages that computer assisted self-interview (CASI) technology holds over traditional interviewing methods in collecting research data on stigmatized and/or risky health behaviors. However, few studies have explored the broader implications of using CASI to collect basic client-level data during routine health promotion and disease prevention screenings. Aims: The present study aims to address this gap in research by comparing the quality of client-level data collected via audio-computer assisted self-interview (ACASI) with data collected via face-to-face and self-administered paper-based interviews among a sample of clients served through the Avon Breast Health Outreach Program (Avon BHOP). Methods: A total of 303 clients served through the Avon BHOP were sampled from three U.S. sites between November 2011 and March 2012. Clients were randomly assigned to complete the Avon BHOP client intake form (CIF) via one of three interview modes: face-to-face interview (FFI), self-administered paper-based interview (SAPI), or ACASI. We conducted logistic regression and determined odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals to test our hypothesis that use of ACASI would result in significantly higher rates of CIF completion than either FFI or SAPI. We compared rates of completion of the entire CIF, as well as completion of each of the three CIF sections: Demographics, Breast Health Information, and Correlates of Breast Health. Results: Clients were significantly more likely to complete the entire CIF via ACASI than either FFI or SAPI interview modes. The greatest differences were observed when comparing rates of completion between ACASI and SAPI, as clients were almost five times more likely to complete the CIF via ACASI as opposed to SAPI (OR = 4.7, p < 0.001). Additionally, when comparing rates of completion of the three CIF sections on Demographics, Breast Health Information (e.g. mammogram history), and Correlates of Breast Health (e.g., smoking behavior, alcohol consumption), we found that clients were between 3.2 and 7.2 times more likely to complete the sections via ACASI as opposed to SAPI. Discussion: Overall, we found that use of ACASI resulted in significantly higher rates of overall form completion and lower rates of missing data than use of SAPI or FFI, with the greatest identified disparity in form completion between ACASI and SAPI. This study has important implications for breast health specialists or any health practitioners who regularly rely on self-administered questionnaires and/or face-to-face interviews to collect important health information. We recommend that where feasible, ACASI be utilized as an effective means of collecting high quality client-level data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2012
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49. Rates of Cancer Detection and Abnormal Results among Clients Recruited for Mammography through Outreach and Education Supported by the Avon Breast Health Outreach Program.

Author

Rose, J., Opdyke, K. M., Gates-Ferris, K., and Hurlbert, M.

Subjects
*COMMUNITY organization, *OUTREACH programs, *MAMMOGRAMS, *BREAST cancer research, *EDUCATION
Abstract

Background: The Avon Breast Health Outreach Program (BHOP) supports community- based organizations and safety-net providers in conducting outreach and education to recruit underserved, low-income and uninsured women for breast cancer screening mammography. Funded organizations report mammography outcomes as part of routine program monitoring. NCI Breast Cancer Consortium data for 2009 reported a cancer detection rate of 3.92 per 1,000 for screening mammograms and 33.21 per 1,000 for diagnostic mammograms. In CY2009, CDC's National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) reported 14 percent of mammograms had abnormal results requiring further investigation, with an overall cancer detection rate of 10.2 per 1,000 mammograms. Objective: To describe reported breast cancer detection rates and rates of abnormal mammography findings among Avon BHOP-funded programs. Methods: We reviewed routinely reported program outcomes data for 98 organizations funded continuously through the Avon BHOP for a three-year period from 2009 to 2011. Data for 17,839 mammograms were available in aggregate by year by grantee agency including the number of mammograms reported, number with a preliminary abnormal finding, and number of confirmed cancer diagnoses. Results: Agencies reported an average of 981 mammogram outcomes per year over 3 years (range 108 to 5,946 by agency). The average agency-specific rate of abnormal findings across 3 years was 13.2% (median 11.2%; range 0.49% to 51.0%). The average agency-specific cancer detection rate was 8.1 per 1,000 (median 6.4 per 1,000; range zero to 31.7 per 1,000). 28 organizations had 3-year average cancer detection rates in excess of 10 per 1,000, and 6 had rates exceeding 20 per 1,000. Large fluctuations in the proportion of mammogram outcomes reported as abnormal by a given agency year-over-year were common. Conclusion: Avon BHOP agencies reported overall abnormal and cancer detection rates similar to those of the NBCCEDP, but higher than the general population. Fluctuations in year-over-year rates were common, and may indicate changes in the way program data were reported over time, changes in screening practices (e.g. new clinical providers or new equipment), and/or differences in breast cancer risk among clients recruited for screening over time. High rates of abnormal screening results could indicate delays in obtaining results from follow-up diagnostic testing, problems with the calibration of equipment, or other quality issues. Discussion: Grantees with unusually high or low rates of abnormal or cancer outcomes or significant year-over-year rate fluctuations would benefit from technical assistance to identify and explain the underlying causes of these trends. Ensuring that all clients recruited for breast cancer screening receive high quality mammography services -- including accurate imaging and reliable interpretation by experienced radiologists -- is critical to minimize client anxiety and to ensure that screening results in improved health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2012
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50. Women's responses to changes in US Preventive Services Task Force mammography screening guidelines: results from focus groups among ethnically diverse women.

Author

Bluethmann, S. M., Allen, J. D., Hernandez, C., Opdyke, K. M., Gates-Ferris, K., Hurlbert, M., and Harden, E.

Subjects
*MAMMOGRAMS, *QUALITATIVE research, *HISPANIC Americans
Abstract

Introduction: In 2009, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) changed its recommendations on the age and frequency for routine mammography. To this point, responses to this change among ethnically diverse women have been not been well examined. The objective of this qualitative study is to describe women's awareness of the change in mammography screening guidelines by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and to describe their attitudes toward this change. Methods: White, Black and Hispanic women ages 40-49 years were recruited from a variety of community settings in the Greater Boston, MA area to participate in focus groups (k = 10; N=73). Groups were segmented by race/ethnicity (Black = 29%; White=29%; Hispanic=15%). Women were asked if they were aware of the change in USPSTF guidelines, and if so, their understanding about reasons for this change and intention to comply. Focus groups were audio-taped and transcribed verbatim. Thematic content analysis was used to cull recurring discussion themes. Results: Most women in this study were not aware of changes in the USPSTF mammography screening guidelines. Those who were aware of the guideline change were highly suspicious that it was motivated by a desire for cost savings on the part of insurance companies and/or providers. Concerns regarding the accuracy of mammography, pain associated with screening, and fear of receiving positive test results were prevalent. Nevertheless, most said that they did not intend to comply with changes in guidelines; many believed that regular (yearly) mammography should start at a young age (40 or before) and continue indefinitely. Conclusion: Most women in this sample were unaware about changes in mammography screening guidelines and lacked understanding regarding underlying reasons for the change. Communication about the rationale for changes in mammography screening guidelines has left many women unconvinced about the potential downsides of screening and has generated a high degree of mistrust of insurance companies and medical providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2012
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