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Background: Hybrid emergency room (ER) systems, consisting of an angiography-computed tomography (CT) machine in a trauma resuscitation room, are reported to be effective for reducing death from exsanguination in trauma patients. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a hybrid ER system in severe trauma patients without severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods: We conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing the hybrid ER system to the conventional ER system from the perspective of the third-party healthcare payer in Japan. A short-term decision tree and a long-term Markov model using a lifetime time horizon were constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and associated lifetime healthcare costs. Short-term mortality and healthcare costs were derived from medical records and claims data in a tertiary care hospital with a hybrid ER. Long-term mortality and utilities were extrapolated from the literature. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $47,619 per QALY gained and the discount rate was 2%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: The hybrid ER system was associated with a gain of 1.03 QALYs and an increment of $33,591 lifetime costs compared to the conventional ER system, resulting in an ICER of $32,522 per QALY gained. The ICER was lower than the willingness-to-pay threshold if the odds ratio of 28-day mortality was < 0.66. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the hybrid ER system was cost-effective with a 79.3% probability. Conclusion: The present study suggested that the hybrid

Clinical trials require participation of numerous patients, enormous research resources and substantial public funding. Time-consuming trials lead to delayed implementation of beneficial interventions and to reduced benefit to patients. This manuscript discusses two methods for the allocation of research resources and reviews a framework for prioritisation and design of clinical trials. The traditional error-driven approach of clinical trial design controls for type I and II errors. However, controlling for those statistical errors has limited relevance to policy makers. Therefore, this error-driven approach can be inefficient, waste research resources and lead to research with limited impact on daily practice. The novel value-driven approach assesses the currently available evidence and focuses on designing clinical trials that directly inform policy and treatment decisions. Estimating the net value of collecting further information, prior to undertaking a trial, informs a decision maker whether a clinical or health policy decision can be made with current information or if collection of extra evidence is justified. Additionally, estimating the net value of new information guides study design, data collection choices, and sample size estimation. The value-driven approach ensures the efficient use of research resources, reduces unnecessary burden to trial participants, and accelerates implementation of beneficial healthcare interventions.

Background: The effectiveness of endovascular treatment (EVT) for large vessel occlusion (LVO) stroke severely depends on time to treatment. However, it remains unclear what the value of faster treatment is in the years after index stroke. The aim of this study was to quantify the value of faster EVT in terms of health and healthcare costs for the Dutch LVO stroke population. Methods: A Markov model was used to simulate 5-year follow-up functional outcome, measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), of 69-year-old LVO patients. Post-treatment mRS was extracted from the MR CLEAN Registry (n=2892): costs per unit of time and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per mRS sub-score were retrieved from follow-up data of the MR CLEAN trial (n=500). Net Monetary Benefit (NMB) at a willingness to pay of €80 000 per QALY was reported as primary outcome, and secondary outcome measures were days of disability-free life gained and costs. Results: EVT administered 1 min faster resulted in a median NMB of €309 (IQR: 226;389), 1.3 days of additional disability-free life (IQR: 1.0;1.6), while cumulative costs remained largely unchanged (median: -€15, IQR: -65;33) over a 5-year follow-up period. As costs over the follow-up period remained stable while QALYs decreased with longer time to treatment, which this results in a near-linear decrease of NMB. Since patients with faster EVT lived longer, they incurred more healthcare costs. Conclusion: One-minute faster EVT increases QALYs while cumulative costs remain largely unaffected. Therefore, faster EVT provides better value of care at no extra healthcare costs.

Purpose: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of grayscale (GSUS), power Doppler (PDUS) and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) for detecting synovitis in knee osteoarthritis (OA). Method: Patients with different degrees of radiographic knee OA were included prospectively. All underwent GSUS, PDUS, CEUS, and contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI), on which synovitis was assessed semi-quantitatively. Correlations of synovitis severity on ultrasound based techniques with CE-MRI were determined. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess diagnostic performance of GSUS, PDUS, and CEUS, for detecting synovitis, using CE-MRI as reference-standard.

BACKGROUND: In recent years it has become clear that fetal anomalies can already be detected at the end of the first trimester of pregnancy by two-dimensional (2D) ultrasound. This is why increasingly in developed countries the first trimester anomaly scan is being offered as part of standard care. We have developed a Virtual Reality (VR) approach to improve the diagnostic abilities of 2D ultrasound. Three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound datasets are used in VR assessment, enabling real depth perception and unique interaction. The aim of this study is to investigate whether first trimester 3D VR ultrasound is of additional value in terms of diagnostic accuracy for the detection of fetal anomalies. Health-related quality of life, cost-effectiveness and also the perspective of both patient and ultrasonographer on the 3D VR modality will be studied. METHODS: Women in the first trimester of a high risk pregnancy for a fetus with a congenital anomaly are eligible for inclusion. This is a randomized controlled trial with two intervention arms. The control group receives 'care as usual': a second trimester 2D advanced ultrasound examination. The intervention group will undergo an additional first trimester 2D and 3D VR ultrasound examination. Following each examination participants will fill in validated questionnaires evaluating their quality of life and healthcare related expenses. Participants' and ultrasonographers' perspectives on the 3D VR ultrasound will be surveyed. The primary outcome

Objectives Autopsy rates worldwide have dropped significantly over the last five decades. Imaging based autopsies are increasingly used as alternatives to conventional autopsy (CA). The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the introduction of minimally invasive autopsy, consisting of CT, MRI and tissue biopsies on the overall autopsy rate (of CA and minimally invasive autopsy) and the autopsy rate among different ethnicities. Methods We performed a prospective single center before-after study. The intervention was the introduction of mi

Cost-effectiveness analyses often rely on cohort state-transition models (cSTMs). The cohort trace is the primary outcome of cSTMs, which captures the proportion of the cohort in each health state over time (state occupancy). However, the cohort trace is an aggregated measure that does not capture information about the specific transitions among health states (transition dynamics). In practice, these transition dynamics are crucial in many applications, such as incorporating transition rewards or computing various epidemiological outcomes that could be used for model calibration and validation (e.g., disease incidence and lifetime risk). In this article, we propose an alternative approach to compute and store cSTMs outcomes that capture both state occupancy and transition dynamics. This approach produces a multidimensional array from which both the state occupancy and the transition dynamics can be recovered. We highlight the advantages of the multidimensional array over the traditional cohort trace and provide potential applications of the proposed approach with an example coded in R to facilitate the implementation of our method.

Background and Purpose— Direct transportation to a center with facilities for endovascular treatment might be beneficial for patients with acute ischemic stroke, but it can also cause harm by delay of intravenous treatment. Our aim was to determine the optimal prehospital transportation strategy for individual patients and to assess which factors influence this decision. Methods— We constructed a decision tree model to compare outcome of ischemic stroke patients after transportation to a primary stroke center versus a more distant intervention center. The optimal strategy was estimated based on individual patient characteristics, geographic location, and workflow times. In the base case scenario, the primary stroke center was located at 20 minutes and the intervention center at 45 minutes. Additional sensitivity analyses included an urban scenario (10 versus 20 minutes) and a rural scenario (30 versus 90 minutes). Results— Direct transportation to the intervention center led to better outcomes in the base case scenario when the likelihood of a large vessel occlusion as a cause of the ischemic stroke was >33%. With a high likelihood of large vessel occlusion (66%, comparable with a Rapid Arterial Occlusion Evaluation score of 5 or above), the benefit of direct transportation to the intervention center was 0.10 quality-adjusted life years (=36 days in full health). In the urban scenario, direct transportation to an intervention center was beneficial when the risk of large vessel occlusion was 24% or higher. In the rural scenario, this threshold was 49%. Other factors influencing the decision included door-to-needle times, door-to-groin times, and the door-in-door-out time. Conclusions— The preferred prehospital transportation strategy for suspected stroke patients depends mainly on the likelihood of large vessel occlusion, driving times, and in-hospital workflow times. We constructed a robust model that combines these characteristics and can be used to personalize pre

Objectives We investigated the impact of clinical guidelines for the management of minor head injury on utilization and diagnostic yield of head CT over two decades. Methods Retrospective before-after study using multiple electronic health record data sources. Natural language processing algorithms were developed to rapidly extract indication, Glasgow Coma Scale, and CT outcome from clinical records, creating two datasets: one based on all head injury CTs from 1997 to 2009 (n = 9109), for which diagnostic yield of intracranial traumatic findings was calculated. The second dataset (2009–2014) used both CT reports and clinical notes from the emergency department, enabling selection of minor head injury patients (n = 4554) and calculation of both CT utilization and diagnostic yield. Additionally, we tested for significant changes in utilization and yield after guideline implementation in 2011, using chi-square statistics and logistic regression. Results The yield was initially nearly 60%, but in a decreasing trend dropped below 20% when CT became routinely used for head trauma. Between 2009 and 2014, of 4554 minor head injury patients overall, 85.4% underwent head CT. After guideline implementation in 2011, CT utilization significantly increased from 81.6 to 87.6% (p = 7 × 10−7 ), while yield significantly decreased from 12.2 to 9.6% (p = 0.029). Conclusions The number of CTs performed for head trauma gradually increased over two decades, while the yield decreased. In 2011, despite implementation of a guideline aiming to improve selective use of CT in minor head injury, utilization significantly increased.

Objective To externally validate four commonly used rules in computed tomography (CT) for minor head injury. Design Prospective, multicentre cohort study. Setting Three university and six non-university hospitals in the Netherlands. Participants Consecutive adult patients aged 16 years and over who presented with minor head injury at the emergency department with a Glasgow coma sc

Background: There is rapidly emerging interest in music interventions in healthcare. Music interventions are widely applicable, inexpensive, without side effects, and easy to use. It is not precisely known how they exert positive effects on health outcomes. Experimental studies in animal models might reveal more about the pathophysiological mechanisms of music interventions. Methods: We performed a systematic review of experimental research in rodents. The electronic databases EMBASE, Medline(ovidSP), Web-Of-Science, PsycINFO, Cinahl, PubMed publisher, Cochrane, and Google scholar were searched for publications between January 1st 1960 and April 22nd 2017. Eligible were English–written, full-text publications on experimental research in rodents comparing music vs. a control situation. Outcomes were categorized in four domains: brain structure and neuro-chemistry; behavior; immunology; and physiology. Additionally, an overview was generated representing the effects of various types of music on outcomes. Bias in studies was assessed with the SYRCLE Risk of Bias tool. A meta-analysis was not feasible due to heterogeneous outcomes and lack of original outcome data. Results: Forty-two studies were included. Music-exposed rodents showed statistically significant increases in neuro-chemistry, such as higher BDNF levels, as well as an enhanced propensity for neurogenesis and neuroplasticity. Furthermore, music exposure was linked with statistically significantly improved spatial and auditory learning, reduced anxiety-related behavior, and increased immune responses. Various statistically significant changes occurred in physiological parameters such as blood pressure and (para)sympathetic nerve activity following music interventions. The majority of studies investigated classical music interventions, but other types of music exerted positive effects on outcomes as well. The SYRCLE risk of bias assessment revealed unclear risk of bias in all studies. Conclusions: Music i

To determine the association between meditation and yoga practice, experienced stress, and amygdala and hippocampal volume in a large population-based study. This study was embedded within the population-based Rotterdam Study and included 3742 participants for cross-sectional association. Participants filled out a questionnaire assessing meditation practice, yoga practice, and experienced stress, and underwent a magnetic resonance scan of the brain. 2397 participants underwent multiple brain scans, and were assessed for structural change over time. Amygdala and hippocampal volumes were regions of interest, as these are structures that may be affected by meditation. Multivariable linear regression analysis and mixed linear models were performed adjusted for age, sex, educational level, intracranial volume, cardiovascular risk, anxiety, depression and stress. 15.7% of individuals participated in at least one form of practice. Those who performed meditation and yoga p

Microsimulation models are becoming increasingly common in the field of decision modeling for health. Because microsimulation models are computationally more demanding than traditional Markov cohort models, the use of computer programming languages in their development has become more common. R is a programming language that has gained recognition within the field of decision modeling. It has the capacity to perform microsimulation models more efficiently than software commonly used for decision modeling, incorporate statistical analyses within decision models, and produce more transparent models and reproducible results. However, no clear guidance for the implementation of microsimulation models in R exists. In this tutorial, we provide a step-by-step guide to build microsimulation models in R and illustrate the use of this guide on a simple, but transferable, hypothetical decision problem. We guide the reader through the necessary steps and provide generic R code that is flexible and can be adapted for other models. We also show how this code can be extended to address more complex model structures and provide an efficient microsimulation approach that relies on vectorization solutions.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate anxiety and pain following perioperative music interventions compared with control conditions in adult patients. Methods: Eleven electronic databases were searched for full-text publications of RCTs investigating the effect of music interventions on anxiety and pain during invasive surgery published between 1 January 1980 and 20 October 2016. Results and data were double-screened and extracted independently. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate effect sizes as standardized mean differences (MDs). Heterogeneity was investigated in subgroup analyses and metaregression analyses. The review was registered in the PROSPERO database as CRD42016024921. Results: Ninety-two RCTs (7385 patients) were included in the systematic review, of which 81 were included in the meta-analysis. Music interventions significantly decreased anxiety (MD -0·69, 95 per cent c.i. -0·88 to -0·50; P<0·001) and pain (MD -0·50, -0·66 to -0·34; P<0·001) compared with controls, equivalent to a decrease of 21mm for anxiety and 10mm for pain on a 100-mm visual analogue scale. Changes in outcome corrected for baseline were even larger: MD -1·41 (-1·89 to -0·94; P<0·001) for anxiety and -0·54 (-0·93 to -0·15; P=0·006) for pain. Music interventions provided during general anaesthesia significantly decreased pain compared with that

Objectives: To compare MR imaging with or without DWI and clinical response evaluation (CRE) in the local control evaluation of cervical carcinoma after radiotherapy. Methods: In a multicentre university setting, we prospectively included 107 patients with primary cervical cancer treated with radiotherapy. Sensitivity and specificity for CRE and MR imaging (with pre-therapy MR imaging as reference) (2 readers) were evaluated using cautious and strict criteria for identifying residual tumour. Nested logistic regression models were constructed for CRE, subsequently adding MR imaging with and without DWI as independent variables, as well as the pre- to post-treatment change in apparent diffusion coefficient (delta ADC). Results: Using cautious criteria, CRE and MR imaging with DWI (reader 1/reader 2) have comparable high specificity (83% and 89%/95%, respectively), whereas MR imaging without DWI showed significantly lower specificity (63%/53%) than CRE. Using strict criteria, CRE and MR imaging with DWI both showed very high specificity (99% and 92%/95%, respectively), whereas MR imaging without DWI showed significantly lower specificity (89%/77%) than CRE. All sensitivities were not significantly different. Addition of MR imaging with DWI to CRE has statistically significant incremental value in identifying residual tumour (reader 1: estimate, 1.06; p = 0.001) (reader 2: estimate, 0.62; p = 0.02). Adding the delta ADC did not have significant incremental value in detecting residual tumour. Conclusions: DWI significantly increases the specificity of MR imaging in the detection of local residual tumour. Furthermore, MR imaging with DWI has significant incremental diagnostic value over CRE, whereas adding the delta ADC has no incremental diagnostic value. Key Points: • If MR imaging is used for response evaluation, DWI should be incorporated• MR imaging with DWI has diagnostic value comparable/complementary to clinical response evaluation• Inter-reader agreement is moder

Objective: There is an international trend towards recommending medication to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals at increasingly lower cardiovascular risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a population approach with a polypill including a statin (simvastatin 20 mg) and three antihypertensive agents (amlodipine 2.5 mg, losartan 25 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg) and periodic risk assessment with different risk thresholds. Methods: We developed a microsimulation model for lifetime predictions of CVD events, diabetes, and death in 259 146 asymptomatic UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years. We assessed incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for polypill scenarios with the same combination of agents and doses but differing for starting age, and periodic risk assessment with 10-year CVD risk thresholds of 10% and 20%. Results: Restrictive risk assessment, in which statins and antihypertensives were prescribed when risk exceeded 20%, was the optimal strategy gaining 123 QALYs (95% credible interval (CI) -173 to 387) per 10 000 individuals at an extra cost of £1.45 million (95% CI 0.89 to 1.94) as compared with current practice. Although less restrictive risk assessment and polypill scenarios prevented more CVD events and attained larger survival gains, these benefits were offset by the additional costs and disutility of daily medication use. Lowering the risk threshold for prescription of statins to 10% was economically unattractive, costing £40 000 per QALY gained. Starting the polypill from age 60 onwards became the most cost-effective scenario when annual drug prices were reduced below £240. All polypill scenarios would save costs at prices below £50. Conclusions: Periodic risk assessment using lower risk thresholds is unlikely to be cost-effective. The polypill would become cost-effective if drug prices were reduced.

Background: Cosmetic result following breast conserving surgery (BCS) for cancer influences quality of life and psychosocial functioning in breast cancer patients. A preoperative prediction of expected cosmetic result following BCS is not (yet) standard clinical practice and therefore the choice for either mastectomy or BCS is still subjective. Recently, we showed that tumour volume to breast volume ratio as well as tumour location in the breast are independent predictors of superior cosmetic result following BCS. Implementation of a prediction model including both factors, has not been studied in a prospective manner. This study aims to improve cosmetic outcome by implementation of a prediction model in the treatment decision making for breast cancer patients opting for BCS. Methods/design: Multicentre, single-blinded, randomized controlled trial comparing standard preoperative work-up to a preoperative work-up with addition of the prediction model. Tumour volume to brea

Purpose: To develop a clinical prediction model to predict a clinically relevant adrenal disorder for patients with adrenal incidentaloma. Materials and methods: This retrospective study is approved by the institutional review board, with waiver of informed consent. Natural language processing is used for filtering of adrenal incidentaloma cases in all thoracic and abdominal CT reports from 2010 till 2012. A total of 635 patients are identified. Stepwise logistic regression is used to construct the prediction model. The model predicts if a patient is at risk for malignancy or hormonal hyperfunction of the adrenal gland at the moment of initial presentation, thus generates a predicted probability for every individual patient. The prediction model is evaluated on its usefulness in clinical practice using decision curve analysis (DCA) based on different threshold probabilities. For patients whose predicted probability is lower than the predetermined threshold probability, further workup could be omitted. Results: A prediction model is successfully developed, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Results of the DCA indicate that up to 11% of patients with an adrenal incidentaloma can be avoided from unnecessary workup, with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 11%. Conclusion: A prediction model can accurately predict if an adrenal incidentaloma patient is at risk for malignancy or hormonal hyperfunction of the adrenal gland based on initial imaging features and patient demographics. However, with most adrenal incidentalomas labeled as nonfunctional adrenocortical adenomas requiring no further treatment, it is likely that more patients could be omitting from unnecessary diagnostics.

Objective: Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates among adults in the Netherlands over the last four decades, and trends per sex, age (groups), and hospital type. Methods: We performed a retrospective study covering 35 years of Dutch national death counts (1977-2011), the number of in-hospital deceased patients, the number of deaths due to external causes, and the proportion of autopsies performed in these populations. The effects of sex, age and hospital category were analysed by linear and logistic regression and differences were evaluated by chi-square tests. Results: Overall autopsy rates declined by 0.3% per calendar year, clinical autopsy rates by 0.7% per calendar year (from 31.4% to 7.7%), and forensic autopsy rates did not decline. Per calendar year the fraction of in-hospital deceased patients decreased by 0.2%. Autopsy rates were highest among men and younger patients; clinical autopsy rates were highest for patients dying in academic hospitals. Conclusions: In the Netherlands clinical autopsy rates have rapidly declined while at the same time the fraction of in-hospital deaths decreased, both contributing to the overall reduced absolute number of autopsies performed. It is important to improve awareness among both clinicians and general practitioners of the significance of the clinical autopsy.

Objective Randomized trials have shown an initial survival benefit of endovascular over conventional open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair but no long-term difference up to 6 years after repair. Longer follow-up may be required to demonstrate the cumulative negative impact on survival of higher reintervention rates associated with endovascular repair. Methods We updated the results of the Dutch Randomized Endovascular Aneurysm Management (DREAM) trial, a multicenter, randomized controlled trial comparing open with endovascular aneurysm repair, up to 15 years of follow-up. Survival and reinterventions were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis. Causes of death and secondary interventions were compared by use of an events per person-year analysis. Results There were 178 patients randomized to open and 173 to endovascular repair. Twelve years after randomization, the cumulative overall survival rates were 42.2% for open and 38.5% for endovascular repair, for a difference of 3.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval, −6.7 to 14.1; P =.48). The cumulative rates of freedom from reintervention were 78.9% for open repair and 62.2% for endovascular repair, for a difference of 16.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 5.8-27.6; P =.01). No differences were observed in causes of death. Cardiovascular and malignant disease account for the majority of deaths after prolonged follow-up. Conclusions During 12 years of follow-up, there was no survival difference between patients who underwent open or endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm

Purpose: To guide early stage breast cancer patients to choose between breast conserving surgery (BCS) and mastectomy (MST) considering the predicted cosmetic result and quality of life (QoL). Methods: A decision model was built to compare QoL after BCS and MST. Treatment could result in BCS with good cosmesis, BCS with poor cosmesis, MST only, and MST with breast reconstruction. QoL for these treatment outcomes were obtained from a previous study and the literature and translated into EuroQoL-5D derived utilities. Chance of good cosmesis after BCS was predicted based on tumor location and tumor/breast volume ratio. The decision model determined whether the expected QoL was superior after BCS or MST based on chance of good cosmesis. Results: The mean utility for the treatments such as BCS with good cosmesis, BCS with poor cosmesis, MST only, and MST with breast reconstruction were 0.908, 0.843, 0.859, and 0.876, respectively. BCS resulted in superior QoL compared to MST in patients with a chance of good cosmesis above 36%. This 36% threshold is reached in case the tumor is located in the upper lateral, lower lateral, upper medial, lower medial, and central quadrant of the breast with a tumor/breast volume ratio below 21.6, 4.1, 15.1, 3.2, and 14.7, respectively. Conclusions: BCS results in superior QoL in patients with tumors in the upper breast quadrants or centrally and a tumor/breast volume ratio below 15. MST results in superior QoL in patients with tumors in the lower breast quadrants and a tumor/breast volume ratio above 4.

Background High sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), coronary artery calcification on CT (CT calcium), carotid artery intima media thickness on ultrasound (cIMT) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) improve prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but the benefit of screening with these novel risk markers in the U.S. population is unclear. Methods and results A microsimulation model evaluating lifelong cost-effectiveness for individuals aged 40-85 at intermediate risk of CVD, using 2003-2004 NHANES-III (N = 3736), Framingham Heart Study, U.S. Vital Statistics, meta-analyses of independent predictive effects of the four novel risk markers and treatment effects was constructed. Using both an intention-to-treat (assumes adherence < 100% and incorporates disutility from taking daily medications) and an as-treated (100% adherence and no disutility) analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (2014 US $), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER in $/QALY gained) of screening with hsCRP, CT coronary calcium, cIMT and ABI were established compared with current practice, full adherence to current guidelines, and ubiquitous statin therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis in men, screening with CT calcium was cost effective ($32,900/QALY) compared with current practice. In women, screening with hsCRP was cost effective ($32,467/QALY). In the as-treated analysis, statin therapy was both more effective and less costly than all other strategies for both men and women. Conclusions When a substantial disutility from taking daily medication is assumed, screening men with CT coronary calcium is likely to be cost-effective whereas screening with hsCRP has value in women. The individual perceived disutility for taking daily medication should play a key role in the decision.

__Importance__ Time-limited trials of intensive care are commonly used in patients perceived to have a poor prognosis. The optimal duration of such trials is unknown. Factors such as a cancer diagnosis are associated with clinician pessimism and may affect the decision to limit care independent of a patient’s severity of illness. __Objective__ To identify the optimal duration of intensive care for short-term mortality in critically ill patients with cancer. __Design, Setting, and Participants__ Decision analysis using a state-transition microsimulation model was performed to simulate the hospital course of patients with poor-prognosis primary tumors, metastatic disease, or hematologic malignant neoplasms admitted to medical and surgical intensive care units. Transition probabilities were derived from 920 participants stratified by sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores to identify severity of illness. The model was validated in 3 independent cohorts with 349, 158, and 117 participants from quaternary care academic hospitals. Monte Carlo microsimulation was performed, followed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Outcomes were assessed in the overall cohort and in solid tumors alone. __Interventions__ Time-unlimited vs time-limited trials of intensive care. __Main Outcomes and Measures__ 30-day all-cause mortality and mean survival duration. __Results__ The SOFA scores at ICU admission were significantly associated with mortality. A 3-, 8-, or 15-day trial of intensive care resulted in decreased mean 30-day survival vs aggressive care in all but the sickest patients (SOFA score, 5-9: 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%], 60.6% [95% CI, 60.2%-61.1%], and 66.8% [95% CI, 66.4%-67.2%], respectively, vs 74.6% [95% CI, 74.3%-75.0%] with time-unlimited aggressive care; SOFA score, 10-14: 36.2% [95% CI, 35.8%-36.6%], 44.1% [95% CI, 43.6%-44.5%], and 46.1% [95% CI, 45.6%-46.5%], respectively, vs 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%] with aggressive care; SOFA score, ≥15: 5.8% [95%

Introduction: Hospital autopsies, vanishing worldwide, need to be requested by clinicians and consented to by next-of-kin. The aim of this prospective observational study was to examine how often and why clinicians do not request an autopsy, and for what reasons next-of-kin allow, or refuse it. Methods: Clinicians at the Erasmus University Medical Centre were asked to complete a questionnaire when an adult patient had died. Questionnaires on 1000 consecutive naturally deceased adults were collected. If possible, missing data in the questionnaires were retrieved from the electronic patient record. Results: Data from 958 (96%) questionnaires was available for analysis. In 167/958 (17.4%) cases clinicians did not request an autopsy, and in 641/791 (81.0%) cases next-of-kin did not give consent. The most important reason for both clinicians (51.5%) and next-of-kin (51.0%) to not request or consent to an autopsy was an assumed known cause of death. Their second reason was that the deceased had gone through a long illness (9.6% and 29.5%). The third reason for next-of-kin was mutilation of the deceased's body by the autopsy procedure (16.1%). Autopsy rates were highest among patients aged 30-39 years, Europeans, suddenly and/or unexpectedly deceased patients, and tissue and/or organ donors. The intensive care and emergency units achieved the highest autopsy rates, and surgical wards the lowest. Conclusion: The main reason for not requesting or allowing an autopsy is the assumption that the cause of death is known. This is a dangerous premise, because it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Clinicians should be aware, and communicate with the next of kin, that autopsies not infrequently disclose unexpected findings, which might have changed patient management. Mutilation of the deceased's body seems a minor consideration of next-of-kin, though how it really affects autopsy rates, should be studied by offering minimally or non-invasive autopsy methods.

Objective: Neonatal intensive care units (NICU) around the world increasingly use music interventions. The most recent systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCT) dates from 2009. Since then, 15 new RCTs have been published. We provide an updated systematic review on the possible benefits of music interventions on premature infants' well-being. Methods: We searched 13 electronic databases and 12 journals from their first available date until August 2016. Included were all RCTs published in English with at least 10 participants per group, including infants born prematurely and admitted to the NICU. Interventions were either recorded music interventions or live music therapy interventions. All control conditions were accepted as long as the effects of the music intervention could be analysed separately. A meta-analysis was not possible due to incompleteness and heterogeneity of the data. Results: After removal of duplicates the searches retrieved 4893 citations, 20 of which fulfilled the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The 20 included studies encompassed 1128 participants receiving recorded or live music interventions in the NICU between 24 and 40 weeks gestational age. Twenty-six different outcomes were reported which we classified into three categories: physiological parameters; growth and feeding; behavioural state, relaxation outcomes and pain. Live music interventions were shown to improve sleep in three out of the four studies and heart rate in two out of the four studies. Recorded music improved heart rate in two out of six studies. Better feeding and sucking outcomes were reported in one study using live music and in two studies using recorded music. Conclusions: Although music interventions show promising results in some studies, the variation in quality of the studies, age groups, outcome measures and timing of the interventions across the studies makes it difficult to draw strong conclusions on the effects of music in premature infants.

Objectives: Autopsies are used for healthcare quality control and improving medical knowledge. Because autopsy rates are declining worldwide, various non-invasive or minimally invasive autopsy methods are now being developed. To investigate whether these might replace the invasive autopsies conventionally performed in naturally deceased adults, we systematically reviewed original prospective validation studies. Materials and methods: We searched six databases. Two reviewers independently selected articles and extracted data. Methods and patient groups were too heterogeneous for meaningful meta-analysis of outcomes. Results: Sixteen of 1538 articles met our inclusion criteria. Eight studies used a blinded comparison; ten included less than 30 appropriate cases. Thirteen studies used radiological imaging (seven dealt solely with non-invasive procedures), two thoracoscopy and laparoscopy, and one sampling without imaging. Combining CT and MR was the best non-invasive method (agreement for cause of death: 70 %, 95%CI: 62.6; 76.4), but minimally invasive methods surpassed non-invasive methods. The highest sensitivity for cause of death (90.9 %, 95%CI: 74.5; 97.6, suspected duplicates excluded) was achieved in recent studies combining CT, CT-angiography and biopsies. Conclusion: Minimally invasive autopsies including biopsies performed best. To establish a feasible alternative to conventional autopsy and to increase consent to post-mortem investigations, further research in larger study groups is needed. Key points: • Health care quality control benefits from clinical feedback provided by (alternative) autopsies. • So far, sixteen studies investigated alternative autopsy methods for naturally deceased adults. • Thirteen studies used radiological imaging modalities, eight tissue biopsies, and three CT-angiography. • Combined CT, CT-angiography and biopsies were most sensitive diagnosing cause of death.

Background: The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP) with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists. Methods: We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only). NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and correct classification of fibrosis. Results: Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6%) and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5) while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification. Conclusion: Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

Background-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. Methods and Results-We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. Conclusions-This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures.

To estimate the probability of ≥50 % coronary stenoses based on computed tomography (CT) segmental calcium score (SCS) and clinical factors. The Institutional Review Board approved the study. A training sample of 201 patients underwent CT calcium scoring and conventional coronary angiography (CCA). All patients consented to undergo CT before CCA after being informed of the additional radiation dose. SCS and calcification morphology were assessed in individual coronary segments. We explored the predictive value of patient’s symptoms, clinical history, SCS and calcification morphology. We developed a prediction model in the training sample based on these variables then tested it in an independent test sample. The odds ratio (OR) for ≥50 % coronary stenosis was 1.8-fold greater (p = 0.006) in patients with typical chest pain, twofold (p = 0.014) greater in patients with acute coronary syndromes, twofold greater (p < 0.001) in patients with prior myocardial infarction. Spotty calcifications had an OR for ≥50 % stenosis 2.3-fold (p < 0.001) greater than the absence of calcifications, wide calcifications 2.7-fold (p < 0.001) greater, diffuse calcifications 4.6-fold (p < 0.001) greater. In middle segments, each unit of SCS had an OR 1.2-fold (p < 0.001) greater than in distal segments; in proximal segments the OR was 1.1-fold greater (p = 0.021). The ROC curve area of the prediction model was 0.795 (0.95 confidence interval 0.602–0.843). Validation in a test sample of 201 independent patients showed consistent diagnostic performance. In conjunction with calcification morphology, anatomical location, patient’s symptoms and clinical history, SCS can be helpful to estimate the probability of ≥50 % coronary stenosis.

Background: Mindfulness-based therapies are being used in a wide range of common chronic conditions in both treatment and prevention despite lack of consensus about their effectiveness in different patient categories. Objective: To systematically review the evidence of effectiveness MBSR and MBCT in different patient categories. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of systematic reviews of RCTs, using the standardized MBSR or MBCT programs. We used PRISMA guidelines to assess the quality of the included reviews and performed a random effects meta-analysis with main outcome measure Cohen's d. All types of participants were considered. Results: The search produced 187 reviews: 23 were included, covering 115 unique RCTs and 8,683 unique individuals with various conditions. Compared to wait list control and compared to treatment as usual, MBSR and MBCT significantly improved depressive symptoms (d=0.37; 95%CI 0.28 to 0.45, based on 5 reviews, N=2814), anxiety (d=0.49; 95%CI 0.37 to 0.61, based on 4 reviews, N=2525), stress (d=0.51; 95%CI 0.36 to 0.67, based on 2 reviews, N=1570), quality of life (d=0.39; 95%CI 0.08 to 0.70, based on 2 reviews, N=511) and physical functioning (d=0.27; 95%CI 0.12 to 0.42, based on 3 reviews, N=1015). Limitations include heterogeneity within patient categories, risk of publication bias and limited long-term follow-up in several studies.

Background: The prevalence of unhealthy lifestyles and preventable chronic diseases is high. They lead to disabilities and sickness absence, which might be reduced if health promotion measures were applied. Therefore, we developed the PerfectFit health promotion intervention with a "blended care"-approach, which consists of a web-based health risk assessment (HRA) including tailored and personalized advice, followed by motivational interviewing (MI). We hypothesize that adding MI to a web-based HRA leads to better health outcomes. The objective is to describe the design and baseline characteristics of the PerfectFit study, which is being conducted among employees with high cardiovascular risk in the military workforce, the police organization and an academic hospital. Methods: PerfectFit is a cluster randomized controlled trial, consisting of two arms. Based on cardiovascular risk profiling, done between 2012 and 2014, we included employees based on one or more risk factors and motivation to participate. One arm is the 'limited' health program (control) that consists of: (a) an HRA as a decision aid for lifestyle changes, including tailored and personalized advice, and pros and cons of the options, and (b) a newsletter every 3 months. The other arm is the 'extensive' program (intervention), which is additionally offered MI-sessions by trained occupational physicians, 4 face-to-face and 3 by telephone, and is offered more choices of health promotion activities in the HRA. During the follow-up period, participants choose the health promotion activities they personally prefer. After six and twelve months, outcomes will be assessed by online questionnaires. After twelve months the cardiovascular risk profiling will be repeated. The primary outcome is self-reported general health. Secondary outcomes are self-reported work ability, CVD-risk score, sickness absence, productivity loss at work, participation in health promotion activities, changes in lifestyle (smoking, alco

Background Evidence is accumulating that mindfulness training has favorable effects on psychological outcomes, but studies on physiological outcomes are limited. Patients with heart disease have a high incidence of physiological and psychological problems and may benefit from mindfulness training. Our aim was to determine

Objective: Music interventions are widely used, but have not yet gained a place in guidelines for pediatric surgery or pediatric anesthesia. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we examined the effects of music interventions on pain, anxiety and distress in children undergoing invasive surgery. Data Sources: We searched 25 electronic databases from their first available date until October 2014. Study Selection: Included were all randomized controlled trials with a parallel group, crossover or cluster design that included pediatric patients from 1 month to 18 years old undergoing minimally invasive or invasive surgical procedures, and receiving either live music therapy or recorded music. Data Extraction and Synthesis: 4846 records were retrieved from the searches, 26 full text reports were evaluated and data was extracted by two independent investigators. Main Outcome Measures: Pain was measured with the Visual Analogue Scale, the Coloured Analogue Scale and the Facial Pain Scale. Anxiety and distress were measured with an emotional index scale (not validated), the Spielberger short State Trait Anxiety Inventory and a Facial Affective Scale. Results: Three RCTs were eligible for inclusion encompassing 196 orthopedic, cardiac and day surgery patients (age of 1 day to 18 years) receiving either live music therapy or recorded music. Overall a statistically significant positive effect was demonstrated on postoperative pain (SMD -1.07; 95%CI-2.08; -0.07) and on anxiety and distress (SMD -0.34 95% CI -0.66; -0.01 and SMD -0.50; 95% CI -0.84; - 0.16. Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review and meta-analysis indicates that music interventions may have a statistically significant effect in reducing post-operative pain, anxiety and distress in children undergoing a surgical procedure. Evidence from this review and other reviews suggests music therapy may be considered for clinical use.

Background and Purpose-This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different noninvasive imaging strategies in patients with possible basilar artery occlusion. Methods-A Markov decision analytic model was used to evaluate long-term outcomes resulting from strategies using computed tomographic angiography (CTA), magnetic resonance imaging, nonenhanced CT, or duplex ultrasound with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis being administered after positive findings. The analysis was performed from the societal perspective based on US recommendations. Input parameters were derived from the literature. Costs were obtained from United States costing sources and published literature. Outcomes were lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and