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This study evaluates the ability of the Catchment SIMulation (CSIM) hydrologic model to describe seasonal and regional variations in river discharge over the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin (BSDB) based on 31 years of monthly simulation from 1970 through 2000. To date, the model has been successfully applied to simulate annual fluxes of water from the catchments draining into the Baltic Sea. Here, we consider spatiotemporal bias in the distribution of monthly modeling errors across the BSDB since it could potentially reduce the fidelity of predictions and negatively affect the design and implementation of land-management strategies. Within the period considered, the CSIM model accurately reproduced the annual flows across the BSDB; however, it tended to underpredict the proportion of discharge during high-flow periods (i.e., spring months) and overpredict during the summer low flow periods. While the general overpredictions during summer periods are spread across all the subbasins of the BSDB, the underprediction during spring periods is seen largely in the northern regions. By implementing a genetic algorithm calibration procedure and/or seasonal parameterization of subsurface water flows for a subset of the catchments modeled, we demonstrate that it is possible to improve the model performance albeit at the cost of increased parameterization and potential loss of parsimony.

Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Sea is studied through model simulations that incorporate the stable isotopes of CH4 (12C-CH4 and 13C-CH4) in a physical-biogeochemical model. A preliminary CH4 budget identifies benthic release as the dominant CH4 source, which is largely balanced by oxidation in the water column and to a smaller degree by outgassing. The contributions from land loads and net export to the North Sea are of marginal importance. Simulated total CH4 emissions from the Baltic Sea correspond to an average 0.04 g CH4 m−2 y−1, which can be compared to the calibrated sediment source of 0.3 g CH4 m−2 y−1. A major uncertainty is that spatial and temporal variations of the sediment source are not well known. Further, the coarse spatial resolution prevents the model to resolve shallow-water near-shore areas for which measurements indicate occurrences of considerably higher CH4 concentrations and emissions compared to the open Baltic Sea. Modeling of stable CH4 isotopes can help to constrain process rates; to our knowledge this is the first time that CH4 isotopes have been included in a physical-biogeochemical model. A large-scale approach is used in this study, but the parametrizations and parameters presented here could also be implemented in models of near-shore areas where CH4 concentrations and fluxes are typically substantially larger and more variable. Currently, it is not known how important local shallow-water CH4 hotspots are compared to the open water outgassing in the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turbulent diapycnal mixing is important for the estuarine circulation between basins of the Baltic Sea as well as for its local ecosystems, in particular with regard to eutrophication and anoxic conditions. While the interior of the basins is overall relatively calm, stratified flow over steep bathymetric features is known as a source of strong turbulent mixing. Yet, current in situ observations often cannot capture the spatio-temporal development of dynamic and intermittent turbulent mixing related to overflows over rough bathymetry. We present observational oceanographic data together with openly accessible high-resolution bathymetry from a prototypical sill and an adjacent deep channel in the sparsely sampled Southern Quark located in the Åland Sea, connecting the northern Baltic Proper with the Bothnian Sea. Our data were acquired during two 1-week cruises on R/V Electra in February–March 2019 and 2020. We collected high-resolution broadband acoustic observations of turbulent mixing together with in situ microstructure profiler measurements, and current velocities from acoustic Doppler current profilers. We found that a temporally reversing non-tidal stratified flow over the steep bathymetric sill created a dynamic and extremely energetic environment. The observed flow reversed during both cruises on timescales of a few days. Saltier, warmer, and less oxygenated deep water south of the sill was partly blocked, the reversing flow was at times hydraulically controlled with hydraulic jumps occurring on both sides of the sill, and high spatial variability occurred in the surface layer on small scales. Dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy, vertical turbulent diffusivities, and vertical salt flux rates were increased by 3–4 orders of magnitude in the entire water column in the vicinity of the sill compared to reference stations not directly influenced by the overflow with average dissipation rates near the sill between 10 -7 and 10 -6 W kg -1 , average vertical diffusivities of 0.001 m 2 s -1 in the halocline and up to 0.1 m 2 s -1 below the halocline, and average vertical salt flux rates around 0.01 g m -2 s -1 in the halocline and between 0.1 and 1 g m -2 s -1 below the halocline. We suggest, based on acoustic observations and in situ measurements, that the underlying mechanism for the highly increased mixing across the halocline is a combination of shear and topographic lee waves breaking at the halocline interface. We anticipate that the resulting deep- and surface-water modification in the Southern Quark directly impacts exchange processes between the Bothnian Sea and the northern Baltic Proper and that the observed mixing is likely important for oxygen and nutrient conditions in the Bothnian Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turbulent diapycnal mixing is important for the estuarine circulation between basins of the Baltic Sea as well as for its local ecosystems, in particular with regard to eutrophication and anoxic conditions. While the interior of the basins is overall relatively calm, stratified flow over steep bathymetric features is known as a source for strong turbulent mixing. Yet, current in situ observations often cannot capture dynamic and intermittent turbulent mixing related to overflow over rough bathymetry. We present observational oceanographic data together with openly accessible high-resolution bathymetry from a prototypical sill and an adjacent deep channel in the sparsely-sampled Southern Quark located in the Åland Sea, connecting the Northern Baltic Proper with the Bothnian Sea. Our data include high resolution broadband acoustic observations of turbulent mixing, in situ microstructure profiler measurements, and current velocities from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers and were acquired during two one-week cruises in February–March 2019 and 202. A temporally reversing non-tidal stratified flow over the steep bathymetric sill created a dynamic and extremely energetic environment. Saltier, warmer, and less oxygenated deep water south of the sill was partly blocked, the reversing flow was at times hydraulically controlled with hydraulic jumps occurring on both sides of the sill, and sub-mesoscale processes in the surface layer leading to high spatial variability at small scales. Mixing and vertical salt flux rates were increased by 3–4 orders of magnitude in the entire water column in the vicinity of the sill compared to reference stations not directly influenced by the overflow. We suggest based on acoustic observations and in situ measurements that underlying mechanisms for the highly increased mixing across the halocline are a combination of shear and topographic lee waves which are breaking at the halocline interface. We anticipate that the resulting deep- and surface-water modification in the Southern Quark directly impacts exchange processes between the Bothnian Sea and the Northern Baltic Proper and that the observed mixing is likely important for oxygen and nutrient conditions in the Bothnian Sea. Our results contribute to the knowledge on turbulent mixing processes in the Åland Sea and can help to improve mixing parametrizations in numerical models of the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]