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Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags behind lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in numerical weather prediction systems using in situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data and by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing merged observatory data files (MODFs) and merged model data files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (NH-SOP1) in February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variability across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. It is found that many models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of the 2 m air temperature (T2m) and the surface skin temperature to variations in radiative forcing, and the reasons for this are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large and ever-growing body of geophysical information is measured in campaigns and at specialized observatories as a part of scientific expeditions and experiments. These collections of observed data include many essential climate variables (as defined by the Global Climate Observing System) but are often distinguished by a wide range of additional non-routine measurements that are designed to not only document the state of the environment but also the drivers that contribute to that state. These field data are used not only to further understand environmental processes through observation-based studies but also to provide baseline data to test model performance and to codify understanding to improve predictive capabilities. To address the considerable barriers and difficulty in utilizing these diverse and complex data for observation–model research, the Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) concept has been developed. A MODF combines measurements from multiple instruments into a single file that complies with well-established data format and metadata practices and has been designed to parallel the development of corresponding Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). Using the MODF and MMDF protocols will facilitate the evolution of model intercomparison projects into model intercomparison and improvement projects by putting observation and model data "on the same page" in a timely manner. The MODF concept was developed especially for weather forecast model studies in the Arctic. The surprisingly complex process of implementing MODFs in that context refined the concept itself. Thus, this article explains the concept of MODFs by providing details on the issues that were revealed and resolved during that first specific implementation. Detailed instructions are provided on how to make MODFs, and this article can be considered a MODF creation manual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian "supersites" were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: 10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: 10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: 10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiaġvik: 10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: 10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: 10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: 10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Understanding sociodemographic factors associated with poor visual outcomes in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis may help inform practice patterns. Patients and Methods: Retrospective cohort study on patients < 18 years old who were diagnosed with both juvenile idiopathic arthritis and uveitis based on International Classification of Diseases tenth edition codes in the Intelligent Research in Sight Registry through December 2020. Surgical history was extracted using current procedural terminology codes. The primary outcome was incidence of blindness (20/200 or worse) in at least one eye in association with sociodemographic factors. Secondary outcomes included cataract and glaucoma surgery following uveitis diagnosis. Hazard ratios were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Median age of juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis diagnosis was 11 (Interquartile Range: 8 to 15). In the Cox models adjusting for sociodemographic and insurance factors, the hazard ratios of best corrected visual acuity 20/200 or worse were higher in males compared to females (HR 2.15; 95% CI: 1.45– 3.18), in Black or African American patients compared to White patients (2.54; 1.44– 4.48), and in Medicaid-insured patients compared to commercially-insured patients (2.23; 1.48– 3.37). Conclusion: Sociodemographic factors and insurance coverage were associated with varying levels of risk for poor visual outcomes in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an inductive theory-development study, a field experiment, and a longitudinal field test, we examine early-stage entrepreneurial investment decision making under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Building on existing literature on decision making and risk in organizations, intuition, and theories of entrepreneurial financing, we test the effectiveness of angel investors’ criteria for making investment decisions. We found that angel investors’ decisions have several characteristics that have not been adequately captured in existing theory: angel investors have clear objectives—risking small stakes to find extraordinarily profitable investments, fully expecting to lose their entire investment in most cases—and they rely on a combination of expertise-based intuition and formal analysis in which intuition trumps analysis, contrary to reports in other investment contexts. We also found that their reported emphasis on assessments of the entrepreneur accurately predicts extraordinarily profitable venture success four years later. We develop this theory by examining situations in which uncertainty is so extreme that it qualifies as unknowable, using the term “gut feel” to describe their dynamic emotion-cognitions in which they blend analysis and intuition in ways that do not impair intuitive processes and that effectively predict extraordinarily profitable investments.

We propose and test a new theory explaining glass-ceiling bias against nonnative speakers as driven by perceptions that nonnative speakers have weak political skill. Although nonnative accent is a complex signal, its effects on assessments of the speakers' political skill are something that speakers can actively mitigate; this makes it an important bias to understand. In Study 1, White and Asian nonnative speakers using the same scripted responses as native speakers were found to be significantly less likely to be recommended for a middle-management position, and this bias was fully mediated by assessments of their political skill. The alternative explanations of race, communication skill, and collaborative skill were nonsignificant. In Study 2, entrepreneurial start-up pitches from national high-technology, new-venture funding competitions were shown to experienced executive MBA students. Nonnative speakers were found to have a significantly lower likelihood of receiving new-venture funding, and this was fully mediated by the coders' assessments of their political skill. The entrepreneurs' race, communication skill, and collaborative skill had no effect. We discuss the value of empirically testing various posited reasons for glass-ceiling biases, how the importance and ambiguity of political skill for executive success serve as an ostensibly meritocratic cover for nonnative speaker bias, and other theoretical and practical implications of this work.

Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags the lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in Numerical Weather Prediction systems using in-situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic, compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data but also by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The YOPP site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) and Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (SOP1), February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. Diagnostic analysis using surface fluxes suggests that this is at least partly related to insufficient thermal representation of the land-surface in the models, which all use a single layer snow model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large and ever-growing body of geophysical information is measured on campaigns and at specialized observatories as a part of scientific expeditions/experiments. These collections of observed data include many essential climate variables (as defined by the World Meteorological Organization), but are often distinguished by a wide range of additional non-routine measurements that are designed to not only document the state of the environment, but also the drivers that contribute to that state. These field data are not only used to further understand the environmental processes through observation-based studies, but also to provide baseline data to test model performance and to codify understanding to improve predictive capabilities. To address the considerable barriers and difficulty in utilizing these diverse and complex data for observation-model research, the Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) concept has been developed. The MODF combines measurements from multiple instruments into a single file that complies with well-established data format and metadata practices and has been designed to parallel development of corresponding Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). Using MODF and MMDF protocols will facilitate the evolution of Model Intercomparison Projects into Model Intercomparison and Improvement Projects by putting observation and model data 'on the same page' in a timely manner. The MODF concept was developed especially for weather forecast model studies in the Arctic. The surprisingly complex process of implementing MODFs in that context refined the concept itself. Thus this article explains the concept of MODFs by providing details on the issues that were revealed and resolved during this first specific implementation. Detailed instructions are provided on how to make MODFs, and this article can thus be considered a MODF creation manual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Female entrepreneurs have been found to face disadvantages when compared with male entrepreneurs, especially in acquiring the financial resources needed to sustain and grow their ventures. Across three studies, we examine how disparities in funding outcomes may be due to differences in how entrepreneurs communicate their ventures, whereby female entrepreneurs have a tendency to use more concrete language when describing their ventures than their male counterparts. We find that the use of abstract speech affects investors' perceptions of which ventures are oriented toward long-term growth and scalability, which in turn affects the likelihood that a venture will receive investment. We concludewith a discussion of the important role of communication style as a key mediating mechanism in influencing investor cognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To provide a comprehensive review of ocular and orbital manifestations of Erdheim-Chester Disease (ECD) and compare clinical outcomes with vemurafenib (INN) to historical treatments (HT). Primary outcomes are ophthalmic findings on presentation, changes in visual acuity, and mortality rate. Secondary outcomes include the progression of ocular findings, systemic involvements, and treatment modalities. Methods: All published literature from January 1983 to March 2021 was searched for ophthalmic manifestations of ECD. Clinical outcomes following HT were collected and compared with INN. Results: Forty-seven patients with ECD and ophthalmic presentations were identified. The mean age was 49.6 years (SD = 15.0). Proptosis (65.6%) and extraocular muscle restrictions (42.5%) were the most common presenting signs. Of 41 (87.2%) patients with orbital masses on radiologic examination, 90.2% were bilateral, and 53.7% were located in the intraconal space. Ophthalmic examination was significant for xanthelasma (27.2%), optic disc edema (34.0%), and subretinal changes (21.3%). Common treatments were systemic steroids (76.6%), interferon-a (17.0%), and cyclophosphamide (14.9%). INN was less commonly used (12.8%). The mean change in logMAR visual acuity declined with HT (29.9%) but improved with INN (79.1%) (p > 0.05). The proportion of eyes with complete vision loss increased after HT (p < 0.05). The overall mortality rate was 27.7% and notably higher in the HT group (29.3%) when compared to the INN group (16.7%) (p > 0.05). Conclusion: ECD presents with many ophthalmic manifestations. Although the intraocular treatments remain controversial, INN should be highly considered in treating orbital ECD patients with BRAF-V600E mutations to prevent and reverse vision loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]