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Background: Clearance of human papillomavirus (HPV) among adolescent men who have sex with men (MSM) is not well studied. This study aimed to evaluate the clearance of HPV DNA and antibodies among adolescent MSM. Methods: In our cohort study, we enrolled adolescent MSM in Melbourne between October 2010 and September 2013. At baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months, anal and penile swabs for HPV DNA and serum for HPV antibodies against genotypes 6, 11, 16, and 18, were collected. Definite clearance was defined as HPV DNA (same site) /antibodies for the same genotype undetected following a positive HPV DNA /antibodies test at baseline or month 3. Possible clearance was defined as HPV DNA (same site) /antibodies for the same genotype undetected at month 12 following a positive HPV DNA/antibodies test at month 6. Overall clearance was defined as either definite or possible clearance. The agreement between HPV DNA clearance and antibodies clearance was calculated. Results: A total of 183 MSM were included (median age: 19 years, interquartile [IQR]: 18 to 20). At the anus, overall clearance rate was 21.6 (95 % confidence interval[CI]: 7.9 to 47.0), 44.8 (19.3 to 88.3), 51.9 (20.9 to 106.9) and 33.7 (7.0 to 98.5) per 1000 person months (PM) for HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18. At the penis, overall clearance rate was 64.5 (13.3 to 188.5), 71.3 (14.7 to 208.2), 96.5 (31.3 to 225.3) and 333.3 (8.4 to 1857.2) per 1000 PM for HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18. For antibodies, overall clearance rate was 22.2 (9.6 to 43.7), 18.8 (3.9 to 55.0), 10.8 (0.3 to 60.1) and 19.0 (2.3 to 68.8) per 1000 PM. Agreement between anal/penile HPV DNA clearance and antibodies clearance was low: kappa = -0.18 (95 % CI: −0.28 to 0.08)/-0.13 (−0.24 to −0.02), 0.04 (−0.29 to 0.36)/0.22 (−0.32 to 0.76), −0.10 (−0.27 to 0.08)/-0.14 (−0.37 to 0.10) and −0.14 (−0.28 to 0.01)/-0.14 (−0.33 to 0.06) for HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18, respectively. Conclusion: Clearance rates of HPV DNA were low and varied by genotypes and anatomical sites among adolescent MSM. Antibodies against HPV were stable during the study period.

BackgroundMale factory workers in China are vulnerable to HIV transmission. Commercial and nonmarital noncommercial contacts are the driving forces of heterosexual HIV transmission among male factory workers in China. There is a lack of effective HIV interventions for male factory workers in China. ObjectiveThe primary objective of this randomized controlled trial was to compare the efficacy of an enhanced versus the standard version of a WeChat mini program in reducing sexual intercourse with nonregular female sex partners and female sex workers among male factory workers in Shenzhen, China. MethodsA nonblinded 2-arm parallel randomized controlled trial was conducted between December 2021 and April 2023. Participants were adult male factory workers in Shenzhen who had access to a smartphone and WeChat. Those who had oral or anal sex with a man or self-reported as HIV positive were excluded. A total of 247 participants were randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=125, 50.6%) or the control group (n=122, 49.4%); 221 (89.5%) and 220 (89.1%) completed follow-up surveys at T1 (6 months after completion of the interventions) and T2 (6 months after T1). Participants in the control group had access to the standard WeChat mini program that provided basic HIV-related knowledge and information about local free HIV testing services. Participants in the intervention group had access to the enhanced WeChat mini program. The enhanced mini program covered all the information in the standard mini program. In addition, the enhanced mini program assessed users’ behaviors and invited users to watch different web-based videos on reducing nonmarital sexual contacts and promoting HIV testing based on their behavioral characteristics at months 0 and 1. The videos were developed based on in-depth interviews with male factory workers. Intention-to-treat analysis was used for outcome analyses. Multiple imputation was used to replace missing outcome values at T1 and T2. ResultsAt T1, fewer participants in the intervention group reported sexual intercourse with a nonregular female sex partner in the past 6 months compared with the control group (1/125, 0.8% vs 8/122, 6.6%; relative risk=0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.96; P=.02). However, there were no between-group differences in sexual intercourse with a nonregular female sex partner at T2 (10/125, 8% vs 14/122, 11.5%; P=.36) or sexual intercourse with a female sex worker at T1 (2/125, 1.6% vs 2/122, 1.6%; P=.98) or T2 (8/125, 6.4% vs 8/122, 6.6%; P=.96). ConclusionsThe enhanced WeChat mini program was more effective than the standard WeChat mini program in reducing sexual intercourse with nonregular female sex partners among male factory workers in the short term but not in the longer term. Improvements should be made to the WeChat mini program before implementation. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT05811611; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05811611

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy remains prevalent globally. However, national data on this issue in the general population after the termination of the zero-COVID policy in China are limited. In March 2023, we conducted a nationwide cross-sectional survey among Chinese adults using a self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regressions were employed. Among 4,966 participants, 43.8% reported COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy following the end of the zero-COVID policy in China. Higher rates of vaccine hesitancy were associated with being married (married: OR 1.36, 95%CI 1.17–1.57; other marital status: OR 1.86, 95%CI 1.36–2.55), working in healthcare (OR 1.64, 95%CI 1.38–1.96), having both minors and older adults in the household (OR 1.45, 95%CI 1.20–1.75), having no minors and older adults in the household (OR 1.44, 95%CI 1.17–1.77), having chronic diseases (OR 1.42, 95%CI 1.23–1.64), experiencing adverse events post-vaccination (OR 1.39, 95%CI 1.19–1.61), and uncertainty about previous COVID-19 infection (OR 1.45, 95%CI 1.13–1.86). Conversely, participants who had received the influenza vaccine in the past three years (OR 0.62, 95%CI 0.54–0.72), had previously taken the COVID-19 vaccine (OR 0.44, 95%CI 0.32–0.59), and had higher confidence in vaccines (OR 0.63, 95%CI 0.60–0.67) were less likely to exhibit hesitancy. Our findings indicate a significant level of vaccine hesitancy, underscoring the urgent need for tailored public health strategies to address vaccine hesitancy and improve uptake post-zero-COVID policy in China. A comprehensive understanding of public concerns and related factors is essential for developing effective vaccine communication strategies.

ABSTRACTThe growing number of Mpox cases in China has posed a challenge to public health. The prevalence of men who have sex with men behaviors among students has been consistently increasing each year in China, accompanied by a high frequency of unprotected anal sex. As crowded places, schools are highly likely to cause an Mpox outbreak among students through long-term close contact. Understanding university students’ perceptions about Mpox and willingness to vaccinate play a vital role in implementing preventive measures in schools. This study aimed to assess knowledge, concerns, and vaccine acceptance toward Mpox among university students in North and Northeast China. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 3831 university students from seven universities in North and Northeast China between September 10 and September 25, 2023. This study found a relative insufficiency in Mpox knowledge among university students (71.60%), with less than half expressing concern about the Mpox outbreak (39.57%), and the majority exhibiting a positive attitude to vaccination (76.30%). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a good knowledge level was associated with age, study discipline, education level, and a high level of concern about Mpox. Male, elderly, or highly educated participants had a low level of concern about Mpox. Participants with a high level of knowledge toward Mpox were more likely to have the vaccination willingness. This study might help governments and schools to understand students’ Mpox perceptions and vaccination intentions, enabling them to implement effective measures in addressing the issue of inadequate understanding regarding Mpox among university students.

Introduction Despite the favourable efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV/AIDS continues to impose significant disease burdens worldwide. This study aims to systematically review published prognostic prediction models for survival outcomes of treatment experienced people living with HIV (TE-PLHIV), to describe their characteristics, compare their performance and assess the risk of bias and real-world clinical utility.Methods and analysis Studies will be identified through a comprehensive search in PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, and OpenGrey databases. Two reviewers will independently conduct a selection of eligible studies, data extraction and critical appraisal. Included studies will be systematically summarised using appropriate tools designed for prognostic prediction modelling studies. Where applicable, evidence will be summarised with meta-analyses.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval is not required because only available published data will be analysed. The results of this work will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.Systematic review registration PROSPERO registration number CRD42023412118.

Hengqin, located at the southern end of Zhuhai city and connected to Macao by a bridge and a river, serves as a key platform for promoting Macao's moderately diversified economic development, leveraging the inherent advantages of Guangdong-Macao cooperation. To enhance the capability of responding to public health emergency is very important for the development of cultural tourism and exhibition industries in the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin due to high population mobility in the region. In this article, we briefly discussed the role, strength and future development of community engagement-based public health emergency response in the in-depth cooperation zone.

Abstract Background Among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART), the mortality of immunological non-responders (INRs) is higher than that of immunological responders (IRs). However, factors associated with immunological non-response following ART are not well documented. Methods We obtained data for HIV patients from the National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program database in China. Patients were grouped into IRs (CD4 cell count ≥ 350 cells/μl after 24 months’ treatment), immunological incomplete responders (ICRs) (200–350 cells/μl) and INRs (

ObjectiveSexual health plays a vital role in healthy aging. However, little is known about the sexual attitudes of and the utilization of sexual and reproductive health services by older women in China. This article is based on a qualitative study of older Chinese women in suburban areas to examine their attitudes toward sexuality and their utilization of sexual and reproductive health services.MethodsFace-to-face semi-structured interviews were conducted with older women (ages 50 to 74) from suburbs of southern China. Participants were purposively sampled on a convenience basis and recruited when they were visiting community health facilities between June and December 2021. Inclusion criteria were older women aged 50 years and older who had sexual experience. A topic guide was used that focused on sexual activity, sexual attitudes, the utilization of sexual and reproductive health services, and the factors that influence these. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. We coded the data inductively and conducted a thematic analysis.ResultsTwenty-six Chinese women participated in the study. These older women had varying attitudes regarding sexual activity and its significance for older adults. The gender norms they held concerning sexual desire deemed that men had higher sexual desire than women. Most asymptomatic women did not actively seek sexual and reproductive health services. In most cases, women only sought professional services when they started to have sexual and reproductive health problems. Factors influencing the uptake of sexual and reproductive health services by older women were cost (affordability), availability, distance (accessibility), and conservative cultural norms towards sexuality.ConclusionThe attitudes of older women towards sexual activity are diverse. While some view sexual activity as common and essential for maintaining a sense of well-being in older age, others may hold different perspectives, considering it less significant. The utilization of sexual and reproductive health services by older Chinese women, except for when they were having a specific health issue, was low. Sexual health messages and services tailored for older women are needed.

Abstract Despite the proven virological advantages, there remains some controversy regarding whether first-line integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) contributes to reducing mortality of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in clinical practice. Here we report a retrospective study comparing all-cause mortality among PLHIV in China who were on different initial ART regimens (nevirapine, efavirenz, dolutegravir, lopinavir, and others [including darunavir, raltegravie, elvitegravir and rilpivirine]) between 2017 and 2019. A total of 41,018 individuals were included across China, representing 21.3% of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases collectively in the country during this period. Only the differences in all-cause mortality of PLHIV between the efavirenz group and the nevirapine group, the dolutegravir group and the nevirapine group, and the lopinavir group and the nevirapine group, were observed in China. After stratifying the cause of mortality, we found that the differences in mortality between initial ART regimens were mainly observed in AIDS-related mortality.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the effects of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the human papillomavirus (HPV) epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Xinjiang, China. Methods: In our cohort study, we enrolled and followed HIV-negative MSM in Xinjiang, China, between 2016 and 2022. Anal swab samples were collected to test for HPV DNA. We used interrupted time series analysis to characterize the temporal trends in HPV prevalence, incidence, and clearance before (September 01, 2016, to July 16, 2020) and during the implementation of COVID-19 NPIs in Xinjiang (July 17, 2020, to March 31, 2022). We used binomial segmented regression models to estimate the impact of COVID-19 NPIs on HPV prevalence, incidence, and clearance. Results: We recruited 1296 MSM who contributed to a total of 5374 HPV tests in our study. COVID-19 NPIs were associated with a 37.9% decrease in the prevalence (prevalence ratio, 0.621; 95% confidence interval, 0.465-0.830), 52.2% decrease in the incidence (risk ratio, 0.478; 0.377-0.606), and 40.4% increase in the clearance (risk ratio, 1.404; 1.212-1.627) of HPV of any genotype after the implementation of COVID-19 NPIs in Xinjiang. Conclusion: COVID-19 NPIs may lead to lower transmission and higher clearance of HPV among MSM. Future studies are needed to clarify the longer-term impact of COVID-19 on the transmission and natural history of HPV among MSM.

During acute respiratory infections, women may concurrently receive human papillomavirus (HPV) and respiratory vaccines, as observed during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in China. However, few studies have assessed the safety of such concurrent administration, which could impact HPV vaccination schedules. This study analyzes the safety and optimal sequence of concurrent HPV and COVID-19 vaccinations. For this purpose, we surveyed women with both vaccines from January to October 2023 in Fujian Province, China. During this process, we collected vaccination history and adverse event (AE) data via telephone or interviews. Participants were grouped as Before, Concurrent, or After based on their vaccination sequence. A Chi-squared test, exact Fisher tests, and logistic regression were used to analyze the incidence of AEs and factors influencing vaccine safety. Overall, 1416 eligible participants were included. Although overall AE risk with the HPV vaccine was unaffected by vaccination sequence, individual AEs varied statistically between groups, including pain at the vaccination site (p < 0.001) and prolonged menstruation duration (p = 0.003). Based on the results, the optimal sequence would be to receive the HPV vaccine after the COVID-19 vaccine (After group). This insight may guide future emergency vaccination sequences for HPV and other respiratory infectious diseases.

Abstract Background In 2003, China implemented free antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV (PLHIV), establishing an eligibility threshold of CD4 50 (+ 7.8%, IRR = 1.078, 95% CI: 1.000–1.161; P = 0.046), heterosexual transmission (+ 12.4%, IRR = 1.124, 95% CI: 1.042–1.213; P = 0.002) and Southwestern China (+ 12.9%, IRR = 1.129, 95% CI: 1.055–1.208; P

Abstract Background College students generally have good knowledge about COVID-19 and may facilitate COVID-19 vaccination in family. The purpose of this study is to understand college students’ willingness to persuade their grandparents to initiate COVID-19 vaccination and the effect of their persuasion. Methods A combined cross-sectional and experimental study will be conducted online. In the cross-sectional study (Phase I), eligible participants are college students who are aged ≥ 16 years and have at least one living grandparent aged ≥ 60 years who has/have not completed the COVID-19 vaccination. Participants self-complete Questionnaire A to collect information on the socio-demographics of themselves and their grandparents, their knowledge about older adults’ COVID-19 vaccination, as well as Health Belief Model (HBM) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) predictor variables. The primary outcome at Phase I is college students’ willingness to persuade grandparents to receive COVID-19 vaccines. Those who are willing to persuade grandparents and participate in a follow-up survey will be invited to participate in a randomized controlled trial (Phase II). At Phase II, eligible participants are those who have at least one living grandparent aged ≥ 60 years who completed the COVID-19 initial vaccination series but has/have not received a booster dose. At the baseline, participants self-complete Questionnaire B to collect information on individual grandparents’ COVID-19 vaccination status, attitude towards and intention to COVID-19 booster dose. Participants will then be randomly allocated 1:1 to either intervention arm (one-week smartphone-based health education on older adults’ COVID-19 vaccination plus two weeks’ waiting period) or control arm (three weeks’ waiting period). At the end of week three, participants in both arms self-complete Questionnaire C to collect information on their grandparents’ COVID-19 vaccination status. The primary outcome at Phase II is the uptake rate of COVID-19 booster dose among grandparents. Secondary outcomes include grandparents’ attitude and intention to get a COVID-19 booster dose. Discussion No previous study had measured the effect of college students’ persuasion on COVID-19 vaccination uptake in older adults. Findings from this study will provide evidence for innovative and potentially feasible interventions that further promote COVID-19 vaccination in older adults. Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry: ChiCTR2200063240. Registered 2 September 2022.

Abstract Objectives This study explores whether feelings of defeat (i.e., a sense of failed struggle and losing rank; referred to as defeat for simplicity) mediated the effect of work stress on depression/anxiety, the effect of interpersonal needs on depression/anxiety for Chinese industrial workers, and the possible moderating role of social support. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted in Shenzhen, China in 2019, in total, 2023 industrial workers (of 2700 invited; response rate = 75%) completed a self-administered survey consisted of Job Stress Scale, Interpersonal Needs Questionnaire, Defeat Scale, Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale, two face-valid questions for social support, as well as sociodemographic information. Moderated mediation model was tested and loop plots were applied to probe into the conditional effects of work and interpersonal stress on depression and anxiety symptoms. Result Both the direct and indirect effect of work stress on depression and anxiety through defeat were significant (Work stress→ Depression: B = 0.035, p

Background: During a vaccination plateau phase, traditional vaccination promotion strategies such as the mobilization of government and community appear to have limited impact on expanding the coverage. New strategies to promote vaccination are needed especially in older adults. Our study aimed to assess college students’ intention to encourage coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination among their grandparents and its correlates. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in China from May to June 2022. We collected information on socio-demographics of college students and their grandparents, constructs of health belief model (HBM) and theory of planned behavior (TPB) for college students, and college students’ intention to encourage COVID-19 vaccination among their grandparents. Multilevel logistic regression models were performed to assess correlates of intention. Results: We enrolled 2681 college students who reported information for 6302 grandparents. 2272 students (84.7 %) intended to encourage COVID-19 vaccination for 4744 (75.3 %) grandparents. Intention was associated with having received a booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine (AOR 3.28, 95 % CI 1.68–6.42), having ever lived with their grandparents (2.07, 1.46–2.93), and having grandparents who regularly went outdoors (2.85, 1.70–4.76). HBM and TPB models showed that college students who had higher levels of perceived susceptibility (1.79, 1.12–2.87), perceived severity (1.52, 1.12–2.06) of COVID-19 among their grandparents, and higher levels of subjective norms (2.88, 1.61–5.15) were more likely to have the intention. Conclusion: College students’ intention to encourage COVID-19 vaccination among their grandparents was high. It may be potentially viable to engage college students in promoting COVID-19 and other routine vaccination among older adults.

Background: Mpox, one of the most serious threats to global health, is now being seen in small but rising numbers in Beijing, China. Our study aimed to investigate healthcare workers’ (HCWs) knowledge of Mpox and to explore reasons associated with their hesitancy to vaccinate against Mpox in Beijing, China. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among HCWs in Beijing from July 24 to August 2, 2023, through an online questionnaire. Participants answered questions about sociodemographic characteristics, Mpox information sources, Mpox knowledge, perception of vaccines, and attitudes toward Mpox vaccination. We used Chi-squared test to compare difference in Mpox vaccination hesitancy between different groups. Multivariable logistic regression models were applied to analyze correlates of vaccination hesitancy among HCWs. Results: A total of 2331 HCWs completed the questionnaire, with an effective response rate of 92.45 % (2155/2331). Most of the HCWs in this study worked at tertiary hospitals (89.65 %), with a mean age of 36.69 ± 9.08 years. Among the 2155 participants, 52.99 % had over ten years of working experience, and 16.66 % were from high-risk departments relevant to Mpox treatment. Approximately 84.41 % knew about Mpox before this study, 80.79 % exhibited a high level of knowledge about Mpox, whereas 42.37 % were hesitant to be vaccinated against Mpox. Moreover, the hesitancy rate of HCWs in high-risk departments (47.91 %) was higher than in lower-risk departments (41.26 %). Higher educational level (aOR = 1.75, 95 %CI: 1.17–2.62), longer working years (1.71, 1.32–2.22), working at high-risk departments (1.34, 1.05–1.71), and lower level of knowledge about Mpox (1.78, 1.13–2.85) appeared as the most significant determinants of Mpox vaccination hesitancy among HCWs who knew about Mpox. For the HCWs who did not know about Mpox, longer working years (1.96, 1.02–3.78) were significant factors associated with their hesitancy. The predominant reason for hesitancy toward Mpox vaccination among HCWs encompassed apprehensions about vaccine side effects. Conclusion: HCWs had good knowledge of Mpox, whereas their Mpox vaccination hesitancy was also relatively high in Beijing, China. Increasing HCWs’ vaccination confidence and knowledge level about Mpox, especially for those working in high-risk departments, may be an essential way of reducing their hesitancy.

Background: Global evidence on the transmission of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection needs to be synthesized. Methods: A search of 4 electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases) as of January 24, 2021 was performed. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. Studies which reported the transmission rate among close contacts with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases were included, and transmission activities occurred were considered. The transmission rates were pooled by zero-inflated beta distribution. The risk ratios (RRs) were calculated using random-effects models. Results: Of 4923 records retrieved and reviewed, 15 studies including 3917 close contacts with asymptomatic indexes were eligible. The pooled transmission rates were 1.79 per 100 person-days (or 1.79%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41%–3.16%) by asymptomatic index, which is significantly lower than by presymptomatic (5.02%, 95% CI 2.37%–7.66%; p

Abstract Background To estimate crude mortality, excess mortality, and standardized mortality rates (SMR) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Luzhou, China 2006–2020, and assess associated factors. Methods PLHIV initiating HAART in the HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System (CRIMS) in Luzhou, China 2006–2020 were included in the retrospective cohort study. The crude mortality, excess mortality, and SMR were estimated. Multivariable Poisson regression model was used for analyzing risk factors associated with excess mortality rates. Results The median age among 11,468 PLHIV initiating HAART was 54.5 years (IQR:43.1–65.2). The excess mortality rate decreased from 1.8 deaths/100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]:1.4–2.4) in 2006–2011 to 0.8 deaths/100 person-years (95%CI:0.7–0.9) in 2016–2020. SMR decreased from 5.4 deaths/100 person-years (95%CI:4.3–6.8) to 1.7 deaths/100 person-years (95%CI:1.5–1.8). Males had greater excess mortality with the eHR of 1.6 (95%CI:1.2–2.1) than females. PLHIV with CD4 counts ≥ 500 cells/μL had the eHR of 0.3 (95%CI:0.2–0.5) in comparison to those with CD4 counts

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared monkeypox a “public health emergency of international concern” on 23 June 2022. However, there is a lack of data on monkeypox perceptions among medical workers. The purposes of this study were to evaluate perceptions, worries about monkeypox, attitudes towards monkeypox vaccination and their correlates among medical workers in China. Methods: Data were collected from medical practitioners using an online survey questionnaire between September 1 and September 30, 2022 in China. All the subjects completed an online questionnaire including general characteristics, perceptions/knowledge/worries about monkeypox, and attitudes towards monkeypox vaccination. Logistic regression was employed to examine the correlates of perceptions, worries about monkeypox, and attitudes toward monkeypox vaccination. Results: In total, this study sample included 639 medical workers. The mean age was 37.9 ± 9.4 years old. Approximately 71.8% of individuals reported perceptions of monkeypox, 56.7% worried about monkeypox, and 64.9% supported the promotion of monkeypox vaccination. Medical workers who were older than 50 years (aOR 3.73, 95%CI 1.01–13.85), worked in the Infectious Diseases/Dermatology/Venereal Diseases departments (3.09, 1.61–5.91), and provided correct answer to monkeypox transmission route (10.19, 5.42–19.17) were more likely to know about monkeypox/monkeypox virus before investigation. 30.7% reported that they were more worried about monkeypox than the coronavirus (COVID-19). Participants reported that the key population most in need of monkeypox vaccination were health practitioners (78.2%) and people with immunodeficiency (74.3%), followed by children (65.4%) and older adults (63.2%). Conclusion: Awareness of monkeypox was high and attitude towards the promotion of monkeypox vaccination was positive among medical staff in China. Further targeted dissemination of monkeypox common knowledge among health care providers might improve their precaution measures and improve the promotion of monkeypox vaccination among key populations.

Introduction Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is increasingly prevalent and has significantly heterogeneous risks of survival for diagnosed individuals due to the inter-related risk factors. Precise prediction of the risk of survival for an individual patient with OPSCC presents a useful adjunct to therapeutic decision-making regarding the management of OPSCC. The aim of this systematic review, critical appraisal and meta-analysis is to assess prognostic prediction models for OPSCC and lay a foundation for future research programmes to develop and validate prognostic prediction models for OPSCC.Methods and analysis This protocol will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses Protocol statement. Based on predefined criteria, electronic databases including MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) will be searched for relevant studies without language restrictions from inception of databases to present. This study will systematically review published prognostic prediction models for survival outcomes in patients with OPSCC, describe their characteristics, compare performance and assess risk of bias and real-world clinical utility. Selection of eligible studies, data extraction and critical appraisal will be conducted independently by two reviewers. A third reviewer will resolve any disagreements. Included studies will be systematically summarised using appropriate tools designed for prognostic prediction modelling studies. Risk of bias and quality of studies will be assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool and the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis. Performance measures of these models will be pooled and analysed with meta-analyses if feasible.Ethics and dissemination This review will be conducted completely based on published data, so approval from an ethics committee or written consent is not required. The results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication.PROSPERO registration number CRD42023400272.

IntroductionNon-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent the leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide. Robust evidence has demonstrated that modifiable lifestyle factors such as unhealthy diet, smoking, alcohol consumption and physical inactivity are the primary causes of NCDs. Although a series of guidelines for the management of NCDs have been published in China, these guidelines mainly focus on clinical practice targeting clinicians rather than the general population, and the evidence for NCD prevention based on modifiable lifestyle factors has been disorganized. Therefore, comprehensive and evidence-based guidance for the risk management of major NCDs for the general Chinese population is urgently needed. To achieve this overarching aim, we plan to develop a series of expert consensuses covering 15 major NCDs on health risk management for the general Chinese population. The objectives of these consensuses are (1) to identify and recommend suitable risk assessment methods for the Chinese population; and (2) to make recommendations for the prevention of major NCDs by integrating the current best evidence and experts’ opinions.Methods and analysisFor each expert consensus, we will establish a consensus working group comprising 40–50 members. Consensus questions will be formulated by integrating literature reviews, expert opinions, and an online survey. Systematic reviews will be considered as the primary evidence sources. We will conduct new systematic reviews if there are no eligible systematic reviews, the methodological quality is low, or the existing systematic reviews have been published for more than 3 years. We will evaluate the quality of evidence and make recommendations according to the GRADE approach. The consensuses will be reported according to the Reporting Items for Practice Guidelines in Healthcare (RIGHT).

Background: The World Health Organization declared monkeypox as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted to understand beliefs, attitudes, perceived preventive measures, and vaccination acceptance related to monkeypox in the public in China. Methods: Between August 30 and September 15, 2022, we recruited adults through an online survey platform. Demographic characteristics, perceptions, common knowledge, concerns, attitudes, willingness to adopt preventive measures (including hygiene practices, social distancing, and travel avoidance), and vaccination acceptance related to monkeypox were collected. Logistic regression was used to assess correlates of concerns about monkeypox, willingness to adopt preventive measures, and vaccination acceptance. Results: 2135 participants were recruited (median age: 31.4 years). 62.7% were concerned about monkeypox. 33.2% were more concerned about monkeypox compared to COVID-19. Males (aOR 0.61, 95%CI 0.50–0.74), accessing monkeypox information from the Internet (0.77, 0.61–0.98), and willingness to adopt monkeypox vaccine (2.9, 2.38–3.53) were associated with concerns about monkeypox. Most participants were willing to adopt precautions (76.3% hygiene practices, 68.2% social distancing, 85.9% travel avoidance). Individuals who were concerned about monkeypox (hygiene practices: 2.09, 1.69–2.59; social distancing: 1.78, 1.46–2.16; travel avoidance: 1.74, 1.34–2.26) and had better knowledge about monkeypox (hygiene practices: 1.85, 1.48–2.31; social distancing: 2.17, 1.77–2.66; travel avoidance: 1.74, 1.34–2.26) were more likely to adopt precautions. 68.8% were willing to adopt monkeypox vaccine. Participants with older age (aged 40–49: 0.57, 0.38–0.85; aged 50 +: 0.50, 0.31–0.81), and higher income (¥6000–10,000: 0.61, 0.39–0.95; ≥¥10,000: 0.48, 0.30–0.77) were less likely to adopt the monkeypox vaccine. Being concerned more about monkeypox compared to COVID-19 (1.63, 1.31–2.02), and having better knowledge about monkeypox (1.34, 1.09–1.66) were associated with willingness to adopt vaccination. Conclusions: Compared with COVID-19, monkeypox attracted significantly less attention in the public in China, who currently have insufficient monkeypox knowledge. Interventions aimed at improving monkeypox knowledge and precautions among different groups of individuals in China are needed.

Abstract This meta-analysis aims to synthesize global evidence on the risk of reinfection among people previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. We systematically searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science as of April 5, 2021. We conducted: (1) meta-analysis of cohort studies containing data sufficient for calculating the incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection; (2) systematic review of case reports with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 reinfection cases. The reinfection incidence was pooled by zero-inflated beta distribution. The hazard ratio (HR) between reinfection incidence among previously infected individuals and new infection incidence among infection-naïve individuals was calculated using random-effects models. Of 906 records retrieved and reviewed, 11 studies and 11 case reports were included in the meta-analysis and the systematic review, respectively. The pooled SARS-CoV-2 reinfection incidence rate was 0.70 (standard deviation [SD] 0.33) per 10,000 person-days. The incidence of reinfection was lower than the incidence of new infection (HR = 0.12, 95% confidence interval 0.09–0.17). Our meta-analysis of studies conducted prior to the emergency of the more transmissible Omicron variant showed that people with a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection could be re-infected, and they have a lower risk of infection than those without prior infection. Continuing reviews are needed as the reinfection risk may change due to the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

IntroductionAssessing the likelihood of engaging in high-risk sexual behavior can assist in delivering tailored educational interventions. The objective of this study was to identify the most effective algorithm and assess high-risk sexual behaviors within the last six months through the utilization of machine-learning models.MethodsThe survey conducted in the Longhua District CDC, Shenzhen, involved 2023 participants who were employees of 16 different factories. The data was collected through questionnaires administered between October 2019 and November 2019. We evaluated the model's overall predictive classification performance using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. All analyses were performed using the open-source Python version 3.9.12.ResultsAbout a quarter of the factory workers had engaged in risky sexual behavior in the past 6 months. Most of them were Han Chinese (84.53%), hukou in foreign provinces (85.12%), or rural areas (83.19%), with junior high school education (55.37%), personal monthly income between RMB3,000 (US$417.54) and RMB4,999 (US$695.76; 64.71%), and were workers (80.67%). The random forest model (RF) outperformed all other models in assessing risky sexual behavior in the past 6 months and provided acceptable performance (accuracy 78%; sensitivity 11%; specificity 98%; PPV 63%; ROC 84%).DiscussionMachine learning has aided in evaluating risky sexual behavior within the last six months. Our assessment models can be integrated into government or public health departments to guide sexual health promotion and follow-up services.

Summary: Background: The ability to accurately identify the absolute risk of neurosyphilis diagnosis for patients with syphilis would allow preventative and therapeutic interventions to be delivered to patients at high-risk, sparing patients at low-risk from unnecessary care. We aimed to develop, validate, and evaluate the clinical utility of simplified clinical diagnostic models for neurosyphilis diagnosis in HIV-negative patients with syphilis. Methods: We searched PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and UpToDate for publications about neurosyphilis diagnostic guidelines in English or Chinese from database inception until March 15, 2023. We developed and validated machine learning models with a uniform set of predictors based on six authoritative diagnostic guidelines across four continents to predict neurosyphilis using routinely collected data from real-world clinical practice in China and the United States (through the Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University in Guangzhou [659 recruited between August 2012 and March 2022, treated as Development cohort], the Beijing Youan Hospital of Capital Medical University in Beijng [480 recruited between December 2013 and April 2021, treated as External cohort 1], the Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University in Xiamen [493 recruited between November 2005 and November 2021, treated as External cohort 2] from China, and University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle [16 recruited between September 2002 and April 2014, treated as External cohort 3] from United States). We included all these patients with syphilis into our analysis, and no patients were further excluded. We trained eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models to predict the diagnostic outcome of neurosyphilis according to each diagnostic guideline in two scenarios, respectively. Model performance was measured through both internal and external validation in terms of discrimination and calibration, and clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis. Findings: The final simplified clinical diagnostic models included neurological symptoms, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) protein, CSF white blood cell, and CSF venereal disease research laboratory test/rapid plasma reagin. The models showed good calibration with rescaled Brier score of 0.99 (95% CI 0.98–1.00) and excellent discrimination (the minimum value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.84; 95% CI 0.81–0.88) when externally validated. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the models were useful across a range of neurosyphilis probability thresholds between 0.33 and 0.66 compared to the alternatives of managing all patients with syphilis as if they do or do not have neurosyphilis. Interpretation: The simplified clinical diagnostic models comprised of readily available data show good performance, are generalisable across clinical settings, and have clinical utility over a broad range of probability thresholds. The models with a uniform set of predictors can simplify the sophisticated clinical diagnosis of neurosyphilis, and guide decisions on delivery of neurosyphilis health-care, ultimately, support accurate diagnosis and necessary treatment. Funding: The Natural Science Foundation of China General Program, Health Appropriate Technology Promotion Project of Guangdong Medical Research Foundation, Department of Science and technology of Guangdong Province Xinjiang Rural Science and Technology（Special Commissioner）Project, Southern Medical University Clinical Research Nursery Garden Project, Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Incubating Program.

IntroductionThe health and economic benefits of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination targeted at men who have sex with men (MSM) in developing settings have been rarely assessed. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different HPV vaccination strategies among MSM in China.MethodsA Markov model was developed to simulate HPV transmission dynamics among a total of 30.73 million MSM in China. The corresponding natural history included 6 states: susceptible, infected with low-risk subtypes, high-risk subtypes, anogenital warts and anal cancer, and deaths from anal cancer. MSM were divided into three age groups with cut-off points of 27 and 45 years. Alternative vaccination strategies were built by allocating bivalent, quadrivalent, nine-valent, or no vaccine to each of the groups. We generated the prevented infections and deaths by vaccination compared with baseline (no vaccination) and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to determine the optimal strategy.ResultsThe model showed that in 10 years, at baseline, the existing cases of anogenital warts would reach 5,464,225 (IQR, 4,685,708-6,174,175); that of anal cancer would reach 1,922.95 (1,716.56-2,119.93), resulting in 940.55 (732.27-1,141.87) deaths. Under 50% vaccination coverage among one age group, the prevented cases of anogenital warts were maximized with quadrivalent vaccines allocated to MSM aged 27-45 years; that of anal cancer were maximized when offering nine-valent vaccines to the same group. Under 50% vaccination coverage among all groups, the lowest ICER (34,098.09 USD/QALY, 31,146.54-37,062.88) was reached when only quadrivalent vaccines were provided. Based on this strategy, when the annual vaccination rate increased by 30%, the ICER (33,521.75 USD/QALY, 31,040.73-36,013.92) would fall below three times China’s per capita GDP. When the vaccine price decreased by 60%, the ICER was reduced to 7,344.44 USD/QALY (4,392.89-10,309.23), indicating good cost-effectiveness taking China’s per capita GDP as a threshold.ConclusionsHPV vaccination can effectively reduce the prevalence and mortality of related diseases among MSM in China, especially quadrivalent vaccines for anogenital warts and nine-valent vaccines for anal cancer. MSM aged 27-45 years were the optimal group for vaccination. Annual vaccination and appropriate adjustment of vaccine price are necessary to further improve the cost-effectiveness.

BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) have an increased risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. This study aimed to assess the incidence, persistence, and clearance of anogenital HPV infections among MSM and the correlates in a 3-year community cohort study.MethodsFrom 2015 to 2019, MSM were recruited and followed up at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months in Taiwan. Questionnaires and anogenital swabs were collected at baseline and each follow-up visit. Thirty-seven HPV genotypes were tested and genotyped using the linear array HPV genotyping test. The incidence, persistence, and clearance rates of anogenital HPV infection and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated through Poisson regression. Correlates of the incidence and clearance rates were examined using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model.ResultsA total of 201 MSM were retained in the cohort study with a median age of 27 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 24–32) at baseline. The incidence, persistence, and clearance rates of any anal HPV infection among MSM were 43.6 (95% CI: 33.7–55.6), 23.4 (17.7–30.2), and 58.3 (45.1–74.1) per 1,000 person months (pms), respectively. The incidence, persistence, and clearance rates of any penile HPV infection among MSM were 26.8 (20.1–34.9), 13.4 (8.0–20.9), and 51.5 (37.8–68.5) pms, respectively. MSM who did not consistently use a condom in receptive sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.06, 95% CIs: 1.14–3.72) were more likely to acquire any anal HPV infection. Age at recruitment (1.05, 1.01–1.09) was positively associated with any penile HPV incidence. MSM with over one sex partner in receptive anal sex (0.53, 0.30–0.94) were less likely to clear any anal HPV infection. MSM who were unemployed/students (0.55, 0.30–0.98) were less likely to clear any penile HPV infection.ConclusionHigh incidence and low clearance of anogenital HPV infection among MSM in the study serve as a reminder that this population needs to be targeted for HPV vaccination. It is essential for MSM to scale up HPV screening and adhere to safe sex.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen testing (RAT) could be a useful supplementary test to diagnose larger numbers of acute asymptomatic infections and alleviate the limitations of polymerase chain reaction testing. However, hesitancy to undergo SARS-CoV-2 RAT may compromise its implementation. ObjectiveWe aimed to understand the prevalence and correlates of hesitancy to undergo RAT among adults not infected with SARS-CoV-2 in mainland China. MethodsA nationwide cross-sectional survey on hesitancy to undergo SARS-CoV-2 RAT was conducted among adults not infected with SARS-CoV-2 in mainland China between April 29, 2022, and May 10, 2022. Participants completed an online questionnaire that covered the following COVID-19–related factors: sociodemographic characteristics, experiences of COVID-19 restrictions and knowledge of COVID-19, and attitude toward COVID-19 and its screening. This study was a secondary analysis of data from the survey. We compared the characteristics of participants by hesitancy to undergo SARS-CoV-2 RAT. Thereafter, logistic regression with a sparse group minimax concave penalty was used to identify correlates of hesitancy to undergo RAT. ResultsWe recruited 8856 individuals with diverse demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic characteristics in China. Eventually, 5388 participants (valid response rate of 60.84%; 52.32% [2819/5388] women; median age 32 years) were included in the analysis. Among the 5388 participants, 687 (12.75%) expressed hesitancy to undergo RAT and 4701 (87.25%) were willing to undergo RAT. Notably, those who were from the central region (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.815, 95% CI 1.441-2.278) and those who received COVID-19 information from traditional media (aOR 1.544, 95% CI 1.279-1.863) were significantly more likely to report hesitancy to undergo RAT (both P60 years old) in the family (aOR 0.685, 95% CI 0.510-0.911), had better knowledge about COVID-19 (aOR 0.942, 95% CI 0.916-0.970), and had mental health disorders (aOR 0.795, 95% CI 0.646-0.975) were less likely to report hesitancy to undergo RAT. ConclusionsHesitancy to undergo SARS-CoV-2 RAT was low among individuals who were not yet infected with SARS-CoV-2. Efforts should be made to improve the awareness and acceptance of RAT among men, younger adults, individuals with a lower education or salary, families without children and elders, and individuals who access COVID-19 information via traditional media. In a reopening world, our study could inform the development of contextualized mass screening strategies in general and the scale-up of RAT in particular, which remains an indispensable option in emergency preparedness.

BackgroundChina implemented a nationwide lockdown to contain COVID-19 from an early stage. Previous studies of the impact of COVID-19 on sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and diseases caused by blood-borne viruses (BBVs) in China have yielded widely disparate results, and studies on deaths attributable to STDs and BBVs are scarce. ObjectiveWe aimed to elucidate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios of STDs and BBVs. MethodsWe extracted monthly data on cases and deaths for AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C between January 2015 and December 2021 from the notifiable disease reporting database on the official website of the National Health Commission of China. We used descriptive statistics to summarize the number of cases and deaths and calculated incidence and case-fatality ratios before and after the implementation of a nationwide lockdown (in January 2020). We used negative binominal segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impacts of lockdown on cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios in January 2020 and December 2021, respectively. ResultsA total of 14,800,330 cases of and 127,030 deaths from AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C were reported from January 2015 to December 2021, with an incidence of 149.11/100,000 before lockdown and 151.41/100,000 after lockdown and a case-fatality ratio of 8.21/1000 before lockdown and 9.50/1000 after lockdown. The negative binominal model showed significant decreases in January 2020 in AIDS cases (–23.4%; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.766, 95% CI 0.626-0.939) and deaths (–23.9%; IRR 0.761, 95% CI 0.647-0.896), gonorrhea cases (–34.3%; IRR 0.657, 95% CI 0.524-0.823), syphilis cases (–15.4%; IRR 0.846, 95% CI 0.763-0.937), hepatitis B cases (–17.5%; IRR 0.825, 95% CI 0.726-0.937), and hepatitis C cases (–19.6%; IRR 0.804, 95% CI 0.693-0.933). Gonorrhea, syphilis, and hepatitis C showed small increases in the number of deaths and case-fatality ratios in January 2020. By December 2021, the cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios for each disease had either reached or remained below expected levels. ConclusionsCOVID-19 lockdown may have contributed to fewer reported cases of AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C and more reported deaths and case-fatality ratios of gonorrhea, syphilis, and hepatitis C in China.

BackgroundSystematic reviews and meta-analyses based on observational studies have shown voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) may reduce HIV risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). There is a lack of randomized controlled trial (RCT) data assessing the efficacy of VMMC. ObjectiveThe primary objective of this study is to assess the efficacy of VMMC for preventing HIV acquisition among MSM who primarily engage in insertive anal sex. MethodsA multicenter RCT will be conducted among MSM in 8 cities in China. Eligible participants are men aged 18-49 years who self-report ≥2 male sex partners in the past 6 months, predominantly practice insertive anal sex, and are willing to undergo circumcision. Interested men who satisfy inclusion criteria will be tested for HIV 1 month before enrollment and at enrollment, and only those who are HIV negative will be enrolled. At baseline, all enrolled participants will be asked to report sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behaviors; provide a blood sample for HIV, syphilis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 testing; and provide a penile swab for human papillomavirus testing. Participants will be randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Those in the intervention group will receive VMMC and undergo a web-based weekly follow-up assessment of postsurgery healing for 6 consecutive weeks. All participants will be tested for HIV at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month follow-ups. All participants will also be asked to report sexual behaviors and undergo repeat herpes simplex virus type 2 and human papillomavirus testing at 6- and 12-month follow-ups. The primary end point is HIV seroconversion. Secondary end points are the safety and satisfaction with VMMC and the changes in sexual behaviors after VMMC. The grouped censored data will be analyzed by intention-to-treat approach. ResultsRecruitment for the RCT began in August 2020 and continued through July 2022. Data collection is expected to be completed by July 2023, and full data analysis is going to be completed by September 2023. ConclusionsThis study will be the first RCT to assess the efficacy of VMMC in preventing HIV infection among MSM. Results from this trial will provide preliminary evidence for the potential efficacy of VMMC to reduce incident HIV infection among MSM. Trial RegistrationChinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR2000039436; https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.html?proj=63369 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/47160

BackgroundCommunity-based organizations deliver peer-led support services to people living with HIV. Systematic reviews have found that peer-led community-based support services can improve HIV treatment outcomes; however, few studies have been implemented to evaluate its impact on mortality using long-term follow-up data. ObjectiveWe aimed to evaluate the associations between the receipt of peer-led community-based support services and HIV treatment outcomes and survival among people living with HIV in Wuxi, China. MethodsWe performed a propensity score–matched retrospective cohort study using data collected from the Chinese National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System for people living with HIV in Wuxi, China, between 2006 and 2021. People living with HIV who received adjunctive peer-led community-based support for at least 6 months from a local community-based organization (exposure group) were matched to people living with HIV who only received routine clinic-based HIV care (control group). We compared the differences in HIV treatment outcomes and survival between these 2 groups using Kaplan-Meier curves. We used competing risk and Cox proportional hazards models to assess correlates of AIDS-related mortality (ARM) and all-cause mortality. We reported adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio and adjusted hazard ratio with 95% CIs. ResultsA total of 860 people living with HIV were included (430 in the exposure group and 430 in the control group). The exposure group was more likely to adhere to antiretroviral therapy (ART; 396/430, 92.1% vs 360/430, 83.7%; P

Syphilis, a sexually transmitted disease, is caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. Although syphilis is curable with appropriate antibiotics, there are still challenges in the management of syphilis due to its diversity of clinical manifestations, difficulty in the interpretation of test results and the diagnosis of neurosyphilis. Therefore, U.S. CDC released the latest guidelines on the diagnosis and the treatment of syphilis in 2021. Aiming to assist healthcare providers in the management of syphilis, we interpret this guideline mainly on the special considerations of different tests, reverse sequence algorithm, tests of neurosyphilis, syphilis during pregnancy, Jarisch-Herxheimer reaction and the management of sex partners.

Abstract Background Migrant workers are a group susceptible for depression evolution due to occupational maladaptive triggers. The social rank theory illustrates the pathology process from defensive adaptation to depression, pointing out the early prevention of depression by discovering entrapment. This study aims to reveal the relationship between migrant workers’ entrapment and depressive symptoms. Methods A total of 1805 migrant workers in Shenzhen were recruited by stratified multi-stage sampling. Sample’s demographic, behavioral and psychosocial characteristics were described and analyzed to reveal the relationship between entrapment and depressive symptoms. The Receiver Operator Characteristic was performed to find the optimal cut-off point of Entrapment Scale for predicting depressive symptoms. Results In the binary logistic regression of sociodemographic variables, migrant workers who were married (univariate odds ratio (ORu) = 0.69, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.56–0.84), owned 1 or 2 children (ORu = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.58–0.86), had been working over 10 years (ORu = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.54–0.95), earned > 4999 yuan per month (ORu = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.47–0.99; multivariate odds ratio (ORm) = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.38–0.87) or with low risks of alcohol use disorders (ORu = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.34–0.75) had lower risks of depressive symptoms. After adjusted the aforementioned significant sociodemographic variables, migrant workers with severer entrapment were more likely to have depressive symptoms (adjusted odds ratio (ORa) = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.12–1.15). Besides, the study proved the reliability and validity of the Chinese version Entrapment Scale, preferring a two-dimensional structure, and 11 was the optimal cut-off value of this scale for predicting depressive symptoms among migrant workers. Conclusions This result indicates the potential value of entrapment according to the social rank theory on facilitating early prevention of migrant works’ depression and the application value of Entrapment Scale for effectively measuring mental status among migrant workers.

Abstract Background To understand how human papillomavirus (HPV) screening results, HPV-related knowledge and attitudes are related to vaccination intention in three cost ranges and the actual vaccination behavior in a community sample of men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods MSM aged 20 years of age or older were recruited between October 2015 and May 2016 from community health centers that provide HIV testing and consultation services in Southern Taiwan and on social media. MSM were seen at baseline and again at 6 months after baseline in a cohort study. The baseline study included 253 individuals; 182 of them returned for the 6th-month follow-up. At each visit, MSM were asked to receive HPV screening and filled out a questionnaire. Structural equation modeling was used to test whether attitudinal factors and HPV screening results from the baseline affect their self-reported actual vaccine uptake at the in 6th-month follow-up. Results Our research included 171 participants from the cohort because they had full information of the study variables (mean ± SD age = 29.21 ± 6.18). Our model showed good model fit using indices such as the comparative fit index (value = 0.998) and root mean square error of approximation (value = 0.013). HPV knowledge can predict those who have intention to take up HPV vaccine no matter what the price (p = .02), and then predict vaccine uptake at the follow-up (p

BackgroundThe global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions. ObjectiveWe aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities. MethodsData on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. ResultsGlobal ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases. ConclusionsLC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

IntroductionMen who have sex with men (MSM) are increasingly using geosocial networking (GSN) mobile applications (apps) to socialize in the community. Our study aimed to compare sexual behaviors between app-using MSM (app users) and non-app-using MSM (non-app users), and evaluate the association between app use and sexually transmitted infections (STIs).MethodsEligible MSM were recruited from January to August 2017 in three metropolitan cities: Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Wuxi. A self-completed tablet-based questionnaire was collected about socio-demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors and app use. Blood samples were collected to test for HIV and syphilis. Rectal swabs taken by nurses and urine samples taken by participants themselves were collected to test for gonorrhea and chlamydia. Anogenital warts were checked by a clinician. Chi square tests and logistic regression were used to compare the prevalence of STIs and the characteristics between app users and non-app users.ResultsA total of 572 MSM were included in our analysis, 59.9, 25.7, and 23.4% MSM were recruited from Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Wuxi, respectively. The majority of participants were 20–29 years old (61.7%). 89.0% of MSM had ever used at least one GSN app, and 63.8% MSM had anal intercourse (AI) partners found via apps. Among app users, 62.7% spent

Introduction Existing studies on sexual health generally focus on younger populations, while the sexual well-being of older adults has received insufficient attention. This protocol describes the design of a study on sexual well-being and its correlates among older adults in China.Methods and analysis We present the protocol for a multicentre observational study to investigate sexual well-being among Chinese older adults (SWELL). Eligible participants are men and women aged 50 years and older from East, West, South and North China, including older adults living in the community and older adults living with HIV. A multistage sampling approach is used in the SWELL Study. We will collect a questionnaire about sexual health (sexual knowledge, sexual attitude, sexual behaviours, sexually transmitted infections, etc). Blood specimens will be tested for sex hormones (estradiol for women, testosterone for men), biochemical items (eg, cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, urea, creatinine and uric acid) and syphilis (determined by toluidine red unheated serum test and Treponema pallidum particle agglutination test). The primary analysis will elucidate the current status of sexual health among older adults in China and its correlates. Secondary analyses will compare sexual well-being among older adults in four regions across China. Approximately 3540 older adults will be recruited into the SWELL Study.Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University (approval number SYSU-PHS[2019]006). Verbal informed consent will be obtained from all participants before any study procedure. Data will be anonymised, and participants will not be identified through any data, transcripts or publications. Findings from the SWELL Study will be disseminated widely through peer-reviewed scientific journals and at national and international conferences.

Objectives: This study examined whether social capital (SC) mediated the association between internalized homophobia (IH) and condomless sex among men who have sex with men (MSM), with the interaction of SC and IH considered.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2018 and April 2019 in Sichuan Province, China. A total of 540 participants were recruited to investigate their IH, SC, and condomless sex. A four-way decomposition of causal mediation analysis was used to test SC’s roles in the association between IH and condomless sex.Results: Condomless sex was prevalent (46.7%) among the participants, which was significantly associated with IH [odds ratio (OR) = 1.70] and SC (OR = 0.55). A direct effect [excess risk ratio (RR = 0.32)] and an indirect effect (excess RR = 0.16) of SC were found to be significant in the association between IH and condomless sex. Heterogeneities in effects were observed when taking the SC’s domains (e.g., individual and family-based SC) as mediators. SC’s effects were significant only in the homosexual subgroup.Conclusion: IH-based intervention with consideration of SC can be tailored to MSM to decrease condomless sex and curb the spread of HIV, especially for the homosexual subgroup.

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM), a population bearing the greatest HIV burden in many countries, may also be vulnerable to COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccines are essential to containing the pandemic. However, vaccine hesitancy may compromise vaccine coverage. We aimed to understand the uptake of COVID-19 vaccine and factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among HIV-infected MSM in mainland China. Methods A cross-sectional online survey among HIV-infected MSM was conducted between 13 and 21 February 2021 in mainland China. Variables including demographics, mental health status, HIV characteristics, and knowledge of and attitudes toward COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-19 vaccine were collected. Chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression were used to analyze factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Results A total of 1295 participants were included. The median age was 29.3 years (interquartile range [IQR] 25.2–34.0 years). The uptake of COVID-19 vaccine was 8.7%. Two main reasons for receiving vaccines were “regarded vaccination as self-health protection” (67.3%) and “trust in domestic medical technology” (67.3%). Among participants who did not initiate vaccination, concern about side effects (46.4%) and disclosure of HIV infection (38.6%) were top two reasons, and 47.2% had higher vaccine hesitancy. Men who had with high antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35–0.80), often (0.26, 0.17–0.40) or sometimes (0.46, 0.31–0.67) paid attention to information about the COVID-19 vaccine, preferred domestic vaccines (0.37, 0.24–0.59), thought the pandemic had moderate (0.58, 0.38–0.90) and moderately severe or severe impact (0.54, 0.38–0.78) on immunity, who were waiting for vaccination programs organized at workplace (0.60, 0.44–0.81) and who were unaware of where to get COVID-19 vaccine (0.61, 0.45–0.82) had lower degree of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Men who were concerned about the efficacy (1.72, 1.16–2.54) and side effects (2.44, 1.78–3.35) had higher degree of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Conclusion COVID-19 vaccine uptake among HIV-infected MSM is still suboptimal. Understanding influencing factors of vaccine hesitancy among this group and making tailored measures to alleviate hesitancy would help improve the coverage of COVID-19 vaccination in this population.

Objectives The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to ravage the world. People living with HIV (PLHIV) are one of the most vulnerable groups. This study aims to identify the factors associated with the uptake and adverse reactions of COVID-19 vaccination. Methods We recruited PLHIV in China by convenience sampling between 7 and 23 February 2021. Participants were asked to complete an online questionnaire. Chi-squared test and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess factors associated with vaccine uptake. Results A total of 527 vaccinated and 1091 unvaccinated PLHIV were recruited. Individuals who had a higher education, engaged in occupations with a higher risk of COVID-19 infection, received influenza or pneumonia vaccine in the past 3 years (5.40, 3.36–8.77), believed in the effectiveness of vaccines (3.01, 2.20–4.12), and received media information regarding COVID-19 vaccine (2.23, 1.61–3.11), were more likely to be vaccinated. Concerning about adverse reactions (0.31, 0.22–0.44), negative impact on the progression of HIV/AIDS (0.36, 0.26–0.50) or antiretroviral therapy (ART) (0.61, 0.44–0.85), disclosure of HIV infection status (0.69, 0.49–0.96), comorbidities (0.33, 0.22–0.47), being unmarried (0.43, 0.28–0.66) and older age were negatively associated with vaccination. Of the 527 vaccinated PLHIV, 155 (29.4%) PLHIV reported adverse reactions, with pain at the injection site being the most common (18.2%). Conclusions PLHIV, who are concerned about adverse reactions, negative impact on ART outcome and disclosure of HIV infection status, were less likely to adopt COVID-19 vaccination. To increase vaccination coverage among PLHIV, health-care professionals should emphasize the benefits and necessity of vaccination and provide consultancy regarding adverse reactions.

Summary: Background: China implemented strict non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 at the early stage. We aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on HIV care continuum in China. Methods: Aggregated data on HIV care continuum between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2020 were collected from centers for disease control and prevention at different levels and major infectious disease hospitals in various regions in China. We used interrupted time series analysis to characterize temporal trend in weekly numbers of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) prescriptions, HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, median time intervals between HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (time intervals, days), ART initiations, mean CD4+ T cell counts at ART initiation (CD4 counts, cells/μL), ART collections, and missed visits for ART collection, before and after the implementation of massive NPIs (23 January to 7 April 2020). We used Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of NPIs on these outcomes. Findings: A total of 16,780 PEP prescriptions, 1,101,686 HIV tests, 69,659 HIV diagnoses, 63,409 time intervals and ART initiations, 61,518 CD4 counts, 1,528,802 ART collections, and 6656 missed visits were recorded during the study period. The majority of outcomes occurred in males (55·3-87·4%), 21-50 year olds (51·7-90·5%), Southwestern China (38·2-82·0%) and heterosexual transmission (47·9-66·1%). NPIs was associated with 71·5% decrease in PEP prescriptions (IRR 0·285; 95% CI 0·192-0·423), 36·1% decrease in HIV tests (0·639, 0·497-0·822), 32·0% decrease in HIV diagnoses (0·680, 0·511-0·904), 59·3% increase in time intervals (1·593, 1·270-1·997) and 17·4% decrease in CD4 counts (0·826, 0·746-0·915) in the first week during NPIs. There was no marked change in the number of ART initiations, ART collections and missed visits during the NPIs. By the end of 2020, the number of HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, time intervals, ART initiations, and CD4 counts reached expected levels, but the number of PEP prescriptions (0·523, 0·394-0·696), ART collections (0·720, 0·595-0·872), and missed visits (0·137, 0·086-0·220) were still below expected levels. With the ease of restrictions, PEP prescriptions (slope change 1·024/week, 1·012-1·037), HIV tests (1·016/week, 1·008-1·026), and CD4 counts (1·005/week, 1·001-1·009) showed a significant increasing trend. Interpretation: HIV care continuum in China was affected by the COVID-19 NPIs at various levels. Preparedness and efforts to maintain the HIV care continuum during public health emergencies should leverage collaborations between stakeholders. Funding: Natural Science Foundation of China.

Patients with cancer are considered at high risk of COVID-19 related complications with higher mortality rates than healthy individuals. This study investigated the perception, acceptance, and influencing factors of COVID-19 vaccination among cancer patients in Guangzhou, China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Guangzhou, China from August to November 2021 in two tertiary medical centers. Outpatients were recruited through hospital posters to complete a questionnaire including demographics, medical history, knowledge, and attitude toward COVID-19 vaccines and COVID-19 vaccination status. Chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression were used to analyze predictors for acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination. In total, only 75 out of 343 patients (21.87%) had received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Twenty-one patients (6.12%) had received a recommendation about COVID-19 vaccination from their physicians. Patients who were recommended by physicians to get vaccinated (aOR = 11.71 95% CI: 2.71–50.66), with a monthly income of more than CNY 5000 (aOR = 3.94, 95% CI: 1.88–8.26) were more likely to have received COVID-19 vaccination. Cancer patients who had been diagnosed for more than one year (aOR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.09–0.51), had received multiple cancer treatment strategies (aOR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.16–0.74), worried about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines (aOR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.11–0.40), were less likely to have received COVID-19 vaccination. COVID-19 vaccination uptake among cancer patients was insufficient. The proportion of cancer patients receiving vaccination recommendations from physicians remains inadequate. Physicians are expected to play an essential role in patients’ knowledge of the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.

The dissemination of the fact that the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine can protect females as well as males is greatly beneficial for the control of condyloma acuminata (CA). We aimed to investigate the acceptance of the HPV vaccine for CA among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. A cross-sectional online survey in the adult MSM population from 31 regions in China was carried out via WeChat in May 2017. Information on demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors, history of HIV and HPV infection, awareness of CA and HPV/CA vaccines, acceptance of CA vaccination, and behavioral intentions for vaccination were collected through a self-administered questionnaire. In total, 902 questionnaires were analyzed; the prevalence of CA was 13.3% (120/902), the HIV positivity rate was 15.1% (136/902), and the coinfection rate of HIV and CA was 3.9% (35/902). In the MSM population, the knowledge of CA and HPV/CA vaccines was poor, but the acceptance rate of the CA vaccine was high (85.1%, 768/902). Data indicated that MSM who had a history of anal intercourse (OR = 1.9), had heard of CA (OR = 2.9), knew the treatments for CA (OR = 2.0), had heard of HPV vaccines/cervical cancer vaccines (OR = 1.9), and received education about CA (OR = 1.9) were associated with the intention to use CA vaccines. With current moderate levels of CA and HPV/CA vaccine awareness, more emphasis should be placed on improving education and other behavioral interventions for high-risk populations such as MSM in China.

BackgroundHIV self-testing (HIVST) holds great promise for expanding HIV testing. Nonetheless, large-scale data on HIVST behavior are scant. Millions of HIVST kits are sold through e-commerce platforms each year. ObjectiveThis study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of the HIVST kit–purchasing population (HIVSTKPP) in China. MethodsDeidentified transaction data were retrieved from a leading e-commerce platform in China. A joinpoint regression model was used to examine annual trends of the HIVSTKPP rates by calculating average annual percentage change. Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis was performed to locate hot spots with HIVSTKPP rates. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time cluster analysis were conducted to identify clusters of HIVSTKPP. High-high clusters of HIVSTKPP can be identified by spatial autocorrelation analysis, and high-high clusters indicate that a region and its surrounding region jointly had a higher-than-average HIVSTKPP rate. Spatial regression analysis was used to elucidate the association between the number of HIV testing facilities, urbanization ratio (the proportion of urban population in the total population), and gross domestic product per capita and the HIVSTKPP. ResultsBetween January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, a total of 2.18 million anonymous persons in China placed 4.15 million orders and purchased 4.51 million HIVST kits on the web. In each of these 4 years, the observed monthly size of the HIVSTKPP peaked in December, the month of World AIDS Day. HIVSTKPP rates per 100,000 population significantly increased from 20.62 in 2016 to 64.82 in 2019 (average annual percentage change=48.2%; P

Summary: Background: Non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) are now becoming a rising cause of morbidity among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the summary risk of incidence and mortality of a wide range of NADCs among PLHIV compared with the general population. Methods: This systematic review and meta-analysis was registered in the PROSPERO (registration number CRD42020222020). We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, and Web of Science for relevant studies published before Jan 24, 2022. Cohort or registry linkage studies comparing the incidence or mortality of individual NADCs in PLHIV with that in the general population were included. Studies simply reporting outcomes of cancer precursor lesions or combined NADCs were excluded. We calculated pooled standardised incidence (SIRs) and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using random-effects models, and used robust variance estimation to account for non-independence in study-level effect sizes. Findings: We identified 92 publications arising from 46 independent studies including 7 articles out of 7 studies from developing countries. Among the 40 types of NADCs investigated, all of the 20 infection-related NADCs, cancers related with human papillomavirus infection in particular, and half of the 20 non-infection-related NADCs occurred in excess in PLHIV compared with the general population. This risk pattern was consistent in most WHO regions and in both high-income and low-and middle-income countries. The increased SIRs for various NADCs were more evident among PLHIV with advanced immunodeficiency, and was explored by HIV transmission route, and use of HAART. PLHIV had increased mortality for anal cancer (SMR 124·07, 95% CI 27·31-563·72), Hodgkin lymphoma (41·03, 2·91−577·88), liver cancer (8·36, 3·86−18·11), lung cancer (3·95, 1·52-10·26), and skin melanoma (3·95, 1·28−12·2). Interpretation: PLHIV had increased incidence and mortality for a wide spectrum of NADCs. Primary prevention and effective treatment for NADCs in this population is urgently needed. Funding: Natural Science Foundation of China Excellent Young Scientists Fund, Natural Science Foundation of China International/Regional Research Collaboration Project, National Science and Technology Major Project of China, Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen, High Level Project of Medicine in Longhua, Shenzhen, Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission Basic Research Program, Special Support Plan for High-Level Talents of Guangdong Province, the Guangzhou Basic Research Program on People's Livelihood Science and Technology, the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Abstract Background CRF55_01B is a newly identified HIV-1 circulating recombinant form originated from MSM in China. However, its impact on the disease progression and transmission risk has not been investigated. This study aimed to determine the impact of CRF55_01B infection on viral dynamics and immunological status so as to provide scientific evidence for further control and prevention effort on CRF55_01B. Linear mixed effect models were applied to evaluate CD4 cell count decline and viral load increase by subtype. Results Of the 3418 blood samples, 1446 (42.3%) were CRF07_BC, 1169 (34.2%) CRF01_AE, 467 (13.7%) CRF55_01B, 249 (7.3%) type B, and 87 (2.5%) other subtypes (CRF_08BC, CRF_01B, C). CRF55_01B had become the third predominant strain since 2012 in Shenzhen, China. CRF55_01B-infected MSM showed lower median of CD4 count than CRF07_BC-infected MSM (349.5 [IQR, 250.2–474.8] vs. 370.0 [IQR, 278.0–501.0], P

Background: A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 has become a public health priority. However, little is known about the public willingness to accept a future COVID-19 vaccine in China. This study aimed to understand the willingness and determinants for the acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine among Chinese adults. Methods: A cross-sectional survey using an online questionnaire was conducted in an adult population in China. Chi-square tests were used to identify differences for various intentions regarding COVID-19 vaccination. The t test was used to identify differences among vaccine hesitancy scores. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the predicated factors associated with the willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Results: Of the 3195 eligible participants, 83.8% were willing to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, and 76.6% believed the vaccine would be beneficial to their health; however, 74.9% expressed concerns or a neutral attitude regarding its potential adverse effects. Of the participants, 76.5% preferred domestically manufactured vaccines and were more willing to be vaccinated than those who preferred imported vaccines. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that lack of confidence, complacency in regard to health, risk of the vaccine, and attention frequency were the main factors affecting the intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Conclusion: Our study indicated that the respondents in China had a high willingness to accept a COVID-19 vaccine, but some participants also worried about its adverse effects. Information regarding the efficacy and safety of an upcoming COVID-19 vaccine should be disseminated to ensure its acceptance and coverage.

Abstract Background Various modalities of vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), based on different platforms and immunization procedures, have been successively approved for marketing worldwide. A comprehensive review for clinical trials assessing the safety of COVID-19 vaccines is urgently needed to make an accurate judgment for mass vaccination. Main text A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine the safety of COVID-19 vaccine candidates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Data search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, Scopus, Web of Science, and MedRxiv. Included articles were limited to RCTs on COVID-19 vaccines. A total of 73,633 subjects from 14 articles were included to compare the risks of adverse events following immunization (AEFI) after vaccinating different COVID-19 vaccines. Pooled risk ratios (RR) of total AEFI for inactivated vaccine, viral-vectored vaccine, and mRNA vaccine were 1.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11–1.61, P