1. An Index for Lifting Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Algorithm Recommendation for Lifting Social Distancing
- Author
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Chen, Sam Li-Sheng, Yen, Amy Ming-Fang, Lai, Chao-Chih, Hsu, Chen-Yang, Chan, Chang-Chuan, and Chen, Tony Hsiu-Hsi
- Subjects
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ,R858-859.7 ,Public aspects of medicine ,RA1-1270 - Abstract
BackgroundImplementing and lifting social distancing (LSD) is an urgent global issue during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when the travel ban is lifted to revive international businesses and economies. However, when and whether LSD can be considered is subject to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the recovery rate, and the case-fatality rate. It is imperative to provide real-time assessment of three factors to guide LSD. ObjectiveA simple LSD index was developed for health decision makers to do real-time assessment of COVID-19 at the global, country, region, and community level. MethodsData on the retrospective cohort of 186 countries with three factors were retrieved from a publicly available repository from January to early July. A simple index for guiding LSD was measured by the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases and recoveries, and the case-fatality rate was envisaged. If the LSD index was less than 1, LSD can be considered. The dynamic changes of the COVID-19 pandemic were evaluated to assess whether and when health decision makers allowed for LSD and when to reimplement social distancing after resurgences of the epidemic. ResultsAfter large-scale outbreaks in a few countries before mid-March (prepandemic phase), the global weekly LSD index peaked at 4.27 in March and lasted until mid-June (pandemic phase), during which most countries were affected and needed to take various social distancing measures. Since, the value of LSD has gradually declined to 0.99 on July 5 (postpandemic phase), at which 64.7% (120/186) of countries and regions had an LSD
- Published
- 2020
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