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Abstract Background Predicting mortality in the emergency department (ED) is imperative to guide palliative care and end-of-life decisions. However, the clinical usefulness of utilizing the existing screening tools still leaves something to be desired. Methods We advanced the screening tool with the A-qCPR (Age, qSOFA (quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment), cancer, Performance Status Scale, and DNR (Do-Not-Resuscitate) risk score model for predicting one-year mortality in the emergency department of Taipei City Hospital of Taiwan with the potential of hospice need and evaluated its performance compared with the existing screening model. We adopted a large retrospective cohort in conjunction with in-time (the trained and the holdout validation cohort) for the development of the A-qCPR model and out-of-time validation sample for external validation and model robustness to variation with the calendar year. Results A total of 10,474 patients were enrolled in the training cohort and 33,182 patients for external validation. Significant risk scores included age (0.05 per year), qSOFA ≥ 2 (4), Cancer (5), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status score ≥ 2 (2), and DNR status (2). One-year mortality rates were 13.6% for low (score ≦ 3 points), 29.9% for medium (3 9 points). The AUROC curve for the in-time validation sample was 0.76 (0.74–0.78). However, the corresponding figure was slightly shrunk to 0.69 (0.69–0.70) based on out-of-time validation. The accuracy with our newly developed A-qCPR model was better than those existing tools including 0.57 (0.56–0.57) by using SQ (surprise question), 0.54 (0.54–0.54) by using qSOFA, and 0.59 (0.59–0.59) by using ECOG performance status score. Applying the A-qCPR model to emergency departments since 2017 has led to a year-on-year increase in the proportion of patients or their families signing DNR documents, which had not been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions The A-qCPR model is not only effective in predicting one-year mortality but also in identifying hospice needs. Advancing the screening tool that has been widely used for hospice in various scenarios is particularly helpful for facilitating the end-of-life decision-making process in the ED.

Abstract Background Social frailty is associated with Fear of Falling (FoF) and health-related quality of life (HrQoL). However, how social frailty simultaneously influences FoF and HrQoL remains unclear. The study aims to understand the links between social frailty, FoF, and HrQoL in older adults and the mediating role of FoF in the relations between social frailty and HrQoL. Methods In this cross-sectional survey, 1,933 community-dwelling older adults from Changhua County, Taiwan, were interviewed using a self-administrated questionnaire. In total, 1,251 participants with complete data were included for analysis. Data were analyzed using the SPSS PROCESS macro. A simple mediation was employed using social frailty as the independent variable, FoF as the mediator variable, and HrQoL as the outcome variable. Results Social frailty was associated with HrQoL and indirectly with HrQoL through FoF, and FoF was directly associated with HrQoL. Of the 5-item social frailty index, “going out less frequently” was correlated with HrQoL and indirectly with HrQoL through FoF. Individuals who felt unhelpful toward family or friends had the worst physical HrQoL and did not talk to someone daily had the most negative influence on mental HrQoL. Conclusions Social frailty can directly and indirectly, through FoF decrease HrQoL. It also emphasizes the importance of social connectivity in reducing the risk of falls. This study points to the need for social connectivity and fall prevention programs as essential components of strategies to enhance the health and well-being of community-dwelling older adults.

Abstract Objective: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are linked to increased metabolic risk. However, the sex differences in the relationship between SSB intake and adverse health effects remain unclear. Therefore, the present study examined the association between SSB consumption and metabolic risks among working-age males and females from Taiwanese communities. Design: A community-based study utilised data from a comprehensive health screening project conducted by the Public Health Bureau in Changhua County, Taiwan. Metabolic risks included waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, TAG, LDL cholesterol and fasting glucose level using serum tests. Setting: Participants were recruited in Changhua County, Taiwan. Participants: Between 2005 and 2014, 92 724 citizens participated in the health screening; our data analysis included 75 278 respondents between 30 and 64. Results: The results showed that the frequency of SSB consumption was associated with abnormal waist circumference and elevated total cholesterol, TAG, LDL and glucose in both men and women. Increased SSB consumption frequency was associated with elevated glucose and hypertension in women. Even a slight increase in SSB intake frequency was related to raising the metabolic risks. Similar patterns were evident when models included BMI; however, the associations were attenuated. In the BMI-stratified subgroup analysis, the relationship between SSB consumption and metabolic risks was more pronounced in participants without obesity. Conclusion: The present study suggests that SSB consumption carries metabolic risk among working-age Taiwanese, particularly women and those without obesity. Health promotion programmes should raise awareness of the health hazards associated with SSB.

Background: Little is known about long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine in reducing severity and deaths associated with Omicron VOC not perturbed by prior infection and independent of oral anti-viral therapy and non-pharmaceutical (NPI). Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study was applied to Taiwan community during the unprecedent large-scale outbreaks of Omicron BA.2 between April and August, 2022. Primary vaccination since March, 2021 and booster vaccination since January, 2022 were offered on population level. Oral Anti-viral therapy was also offered as of mid-May 2022. The population-based effectiveness of vaccination in reducing the risk of moderate and severe cases of and death from Omicron BA.2 with the consideration of NPI and oral anti-viral therapy were assessed by using Bayesian hierarchical models. Results: The risks of three clinical outcomes associated with Omicron VOC infection were lowest for booster vaccination, followed by primary vaccination, and highest for incomplete vaccination with the consistent trends of being at increased risk for three outcomes from the young people aged 12 years or below until the elderly people aged 75 years or older with 7 age groups. Before the period using oral anti-viral therapy, complete primary vaccination with the duration more than 9 months before outbreaks conferred the statistically significant 47 % (23–64 %) reduction of death, 48 % (30–61 %) of severe disease, and 46 % (95 % CI: 37–54 %) of moderate disease after adjusting for 10–20 % independent effect of NPI. The benefits of booster vaccination within three months were further enhanced to 76 % (95 % CI: 67–86 %), 74 % (95 % CI: 67–80 %), and 61 % (95 % CI: 56–65 %) for three corresponding outcomes. The additional effectiveness of oral anti-viral therapy in reducing moderate disease was 13 % for the booster group and 5.8 % for primary vaccination. Conclusions: We corroborated population effectiveness of primary vaccination and its booster vaccination, independent of oral anti-viral therapy and NPI, in reducing severe clinical outcomes associated with Omicron BA.2 naïve infection population.

BackgroundAlthough early dementia detection is crucial to optimize the treatment outcomes and the management of associated symptoms, the published literature is scarce regarding the effectiveness of active screening protocols in enhancing dementia awareness and increasing the rate of early detection. The present study compared the detection ratio of an active community-based survey for dementia detection with the detection ratio of passive screening during routine clinical practice. Data for passive screening were obtained from the National Health Insurance (NHI) system, which was prospectively collected during the period from 2000 to 2003.DesignA population-based cohort study with historical control.SettingTaiwan.ParticipantsA total of 183 participants aged 65 years or older were involved in a community-based survey. Data from 1,921,308 subjects aged 65 years or older were retrieved from the NHI system.MeasurementsAn adjusted detection ratio, defined as a ratio of dementia prevalence to incidence was used.ResultsThe results showed that the dementia prevalence during the 2000–2003 period was 2.91% in the elderly population, compared with a prevalence of 6.59% when the active survey was conducted. The incidence of dementia in the active survey cohort was 1.83%. Overall, the dementia detection ratio was higher using active surveys [4.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.68–6.69] than using passive detection (1.45, 95% CI: 1.43–1.47) for those aged 65–79 years. Similar findings were observed for those aged 80 years and older.ConclusionThe implementation of an active community-based survey led to a 3-fold increase in the detection rate of early dementia detection compared to passive screening during routine practice.

Classic diffusely infiltrating lobular carcinoma has imaging features divergent from the breast cancers originating from the terminal ductal lobular units and from the major lactiferous ducts. Although the term “invasive lobular carcinoma” implies a site of origin within the breast lobular epithelium, we were unable to find evidence supporting this assumption. Exceptional excess of fibrous connective tissue and the unique cell architecture combined with the aberrant features at breast imaging suggest that this breast malignancy has not originated from cells lining the breast ducts and lobules. The only remaining relevant component of the fibroglandular tissue is the mesenchyme. The cells freshly isolated and cultured from diffusely infiltrating lobular carcinoma cases contained epithelial–mesenchymal hybrid cells with both epithelial and mesenchymal properties. The radiologic and histopathologic features of the tumours and expression of the mesenchymal stem cell positive markers CD73, CD90, and CD105 all suggest development in the direction of mesenchymal transition. These hybrid cells have tumour-initiating potential and have been shown to have poor prognosis and resistance to therapy targeted for malignancies of breast epithelial origin. Our work emphasizes the need for new approaches to the diagnosis and therapy of this highly fatal breast cancer subtype.

Abstract Aspirin and nicametate are well-established therapies for preventing recurrence and mortality from stroke in patients diagnosed as ischemic stroke. However, their respective effects on the recurrence, making allowance for the duration of recurrence and death without the occurrence of recurrence, and long-term survival have not been well elucidated. We aimed to evaluate long-term effect of two kinds of treatment on cerebrovascular death among ischemic stroke patients with or without the recurrence of stroke. Data used in this study were derived from the cohort based on a multicenter randomized double-blind controlled trial during 1992 to 1995 with the enrollment of a total of 466 patients with first-time non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke who were randomly allocated to receive aspirin (n = 222) or nicametate (n = 244). The trial cohort was followed up over time to ascertain the date of recurrence within trial period and death until Sep of 2019. The time-dependent Cox regression model was used to estimate the long-term effects of two treatments on death from cerebrovascular disease with and without recurrence. A total of 49 patients experienced stroke recurrence and 89 cerebrovascular deaths was confirmed. Patients treated with nicametate were more likely, but non statistically significantly, to have recurrence (aHR: 1.73, 95% CI 0.96–3.13) as compared with those treated by aspirin. Nicametate reduced the risk of cerebrovascular death about 37% (aHR: 0.63, 95% CI 0.41–0.97) compared with aspirin. The aspirin group had a lower recurrence rate than the nicametate group even with recurrence after 1–2 years of follow-up of first stroke but the latter had significantly reduced death from cerebrovascular disease for nicametate group, which requires more research to verify.

Abstract Few studies quantify a cascade of dynamic transitions on the detailed components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and subsequent progressions to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its death. A total of 47,495 subjects repeatedly attending a community-based integrated screening program in Taiwan were recruited. The refined MetS-related classification (RMRC) in relation to five criteria of MetS was defined as free of metabolic disorder (FMD, none of any criteria), mild metabolic disorder (MMD, 1–2 criteria) and MetS. A multistate Markov model was used for modelling such a multistate process. The estimated progression rate from FMD to MMD was 44.82% (95% CI 42.95–46.70%) whereas the regression rate was estimated as 29.11% (95% CI 27.77–30.45%). The progression rate from MMD to MetS was estimated as 6.15% (95% CI 5.89–6.42%). The estimated annual incidence rates of CVD increased with the severity of RMRC, being 1.62% (95% CI 1.46–1.79%) for FMD, 4.74% (95% CI 4.52–4.96%) for MMD, to 20.22% (95% CI 19.52–20.92%) for MetS. The estimated hazard rate of CVD death was 6.1 (95% CI 4.6–7.7) per thousand. Elucidating the dynamics of MetS-related transition and quantifying the incidence and prognosis of CVD provide a new insight into the design and the evaluation of intervention programs for CVD.

A “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)” monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on 23 June 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as of July 25. The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) model with the directed acyclic graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R0/Re) and to assess the epidemic spread of monkeypox across the globe. The maximum estimated R0/Re was 1.16 (1.15–1.17), 1.20 (1.20–1.20), 1.34 (1.34–1.35), 1.33 (1.33–1.33) and 2.52 (2.41–2.66) in the United States, Spain, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The values of R0/Re were below 1 after August 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. The PHEIC of the global spreading of human monkeypox has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment.

ObjectiveThis study aims to investigate the cost-effectiveness of the add-on exenatide to conventional pharmacotherapy in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) when considering the coexistence of diabetes mellitus (DM).MethodsWe used the Keelung and Community-based Integrated Screening databases to understand the medical utilisation in the Hoehn and Yahr stages of patients with PD. A Markov model with 1-year cycle length and 50-year time horizon was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of add-on exenatide to conventional pharmacotherapy compared to conventional pharmacotherapy alone. All costs were adjusted to the value of the new Taiwanese dollar (NT$) as of the year 2020. One-way sensitivity and probability analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results.ResultsFrom a societal perspective, the add-on exenatide brought an average of 0.39 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and a cost increment of NT$104,744 per person in a 50-year horizon compared to conventional pharmacotherapy. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was NT$268,333 per QALY gained. As the ICER was less than the gross domestic product per capita (NT$839,558), the add-on exenatide was considered to be very cost-effective in the two models, according to the World Health Organization recommendation. Add-on exenatide had a 96.9% probability of being cost-effective in patients with PD, and a 100% probability of being cost-effective in patients with PD and DM.ConclusionAdd-on exenatide is cost-effective in PD combined with DM. Considering that DM may be a risk factor for neurodegenerative diseases, exenatide provides both clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness when considering both PD and DM.

The roles of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in the prevention of colorectal cancer (CRC) have been scarcely highlighted as there is short of empirical evidence regarding the influences of PM 2.5 on multistep carcinogenic processes of CRC. A retrospective cohort design with multistate outcomes was envisaged by linking monthly average PM 2.5 concentrations at 22 city/county level with large-scale cohorts of cancer-screened population to study the influences of PM 2.5 on short-term inflammatory process and multistep carcinogenic processes of CRC. Our study included a nationwide CRC screening cohort of 4,628,995 aged 50–69 years who attended first screen between 2004 and 2009 and continued periodical screens until 2016. We aimed to illustrate the carcinogenesis of PM 2.5 related to CRC by applying both hierarchical logistical and multistate Markov regression models to estimate the effects of air pollution on fecal immunochemical test (FIT) positive (a proxy of inflammatory marker) and pre-clinical and clinical states of CRC in the nationwide cohort. We found a significant association of high PM 2.5 exposure and FIT-positive by an increased risk of 11% [95% confidence interval (CI), 10–12]. PM 2.5 enhanced the risk of being preclinical state by 14% (95% CI, 10–18) and that of subsequent progression from pre-clinical to clinical state by 21% (95% CI, 14–28). Furthermore, the elevated risks for CRC carcinogenesis were significantly higher for people living in high PM 2.5 pollution areas in terms of yearly averages and the number days above 35 µg/m 3 than those living in low PM 2.5 pollution areas. We concluded that both short-term and long-term PM 2.5 exposure were associated with multistep progression of CRC, which were useful to design precision primary and secondary prevention strategies of CRC for people who are exposed to high PM 2.5 pollution.

Background: As Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to the unprecedent large-scale repeated surges of epidemics worldwide since the end of 2019, data-driven analysis to look into the duration and case load of each episode of outbreak worldwide has been motivated. Methods: Using open data repository with daily infected, recovered and death cases in the period between March 2020 and April 2021, a descriptive analysis was performed. The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery model was used to estimate the effective productive number (Rt). The duration taken from Rt > 1 to Rt

Background: Global burden of COVID-19 has not been well studied, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and value of statistical life (VSL) metrics were therefore proposed to quantify its impacts on health and economic loss globally. Methods: The life expectancy, cases, and death numbers of COVID-19 until 30th April 2021 were retrieved from open data to derive the epidemiological profiles and DALYs (including years of life lost (YLL) and years loss due to disability (YLD)) by four periods. The VSL estimates were estimated by using hedonic wage method (HWM) and contingent valuation method (CVM). The estimate of willingness to pay using CVM was based on the meta-regression mixed model. Machine learning method was used for classification. Results: Globally, DALYs (in thousands) due to COVID-19 was tallied as 31,930 from Period I to IV. YLL dominated over YLD. The estimates of VSL were US$591 billion and US$5135 billion based on HWM and CVM, respectively. The estimate of VSL increased from US$579 billion in Period I to US$2160 billion in Period IV using CVM. The higher the human development index (HDI), the higher the value of DALYs and VSL. However, there exits the disparity even at the same level of HDI. Machine learning analysis categorized eight patterns of global burden of COVID-19 with a large variation from US$0.001 billion to US$691.4 billion. Conclusion: Global burden of COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial health and value of life loss particularly in developed economies. Classifications of such health and economic loss is informative to early preparation of adequate resource to reduce impacts.

Background: Vaccine is supposed to be the most effective means to prevent COVID-19 as it may not only save lives but also reduce productivity loss due to resuming pre-pandemic activities. Providing the results of economic evaluation for mass vaccination is of paramount importance for all stakeholders worldwide. Methods: We developed a Markov decision tree for the economic evaluation of mass vaccination against COVID-19. The effectiveness of reducing outcomes after the administration of three COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca)) were modelled with empirical parameters obtained from literatures. The direct cost of vaccine and COVID-19 related medical cost, the indirect cost of productivity loss due to vaccine jabs and hospitalization, and the productivity loss were accumulated given different vaccination scenarios. We reported the incremental cost-utility ratio and benefit/cost (B/C) ratio of three vaccines compared to no vaccination with a probabilistic approach. Results: Moderna and Pfizer vaccines won the greatest effectiveness among the three vaccines under consideration. After taking both direct and indirect costs into account, all of the three vaccines dominated no vaccination strategy. The results of B/C ratio show that one dollar invested in vaccine would have USD $13, USD $23, and USD $28 in return for Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, respectively when health and education loss are considered. The corresponding figures taking value of the statistical life into account were USD $176, USD $300, and USD $443. Conclusion: Mass vaccination against COVID-19 with three current available vaccines is cost-saving for gaining more lives and less cost incurred.

Abstract Background Although fecal hemoglobin concentration (f-Hb) was highly associated with the risk of colorectal neoplasms, current studies on this subject are hampered by skewedness of the data and the ordinal property of f-Hb has not been well studied yet. Our aim was to develop a quantile-based method to estimate adjusted percentiles (median) of fecal hemoglobin concentration and their derived prediction for the risk of multistage outcomes of colorectal disease. Methods We used a 6-year follow-up cohort of Taiwanese nationwide colorectal screening program with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) to obtain fecal hemoglobin concentration and applied accelerated failure time multi-variable analyses to make the comparison of adjusted median and other percentitles of fecal hemoglobin across four categories of colorectal carcinogenesis. We then predicted the risk of colorectal neoplasms on the basis of the corresponding percentile values by using accelerated failure time model with Bayesian inversion method. Results The adjusted median fecal hemoglobin concentration of nonadvanced adenoma, advanced adenoma, and colorectal cancer were 57, 82, and 163 μg/g feces as opposed to 0 μg/g feces for the normal group. At 90 μg/g of f-Hb, the highly suspected cut-off for colorectal disease, the risks were 17% for non-advanced adenoma, 6% for advanced adenoma, and 9% for CRC. Life-time risks of each colorectal neoplasm were derived by percentiles of fecal hemoglobin concentration. Conclusion Covariate-adjusted risk stratification for multistage outcomes of colorectal neoplasia were provided by using the quantiles of fecal hemoglobin concentration, yielding the estimated life-time risks of 25th to 75th quantitles, ranging from 0.5 to 44% for colorectal cancer, 0.2 to 46% for non-advanced adenoma, and 0.1 to 20% for advanced adenoma.

Abstract Background To develop an individually-tailored dynamic risk assessment model following a multistep, multifactorial process of the Correa’s gastric cancer model. Methods First, we estimated the state-to-state transition rates following Correa’s five-step carcinogenic model and assessed the effect of risk factors, including Helicobacter pylori infection, history of upper gastrointestinal disease, lifestyle, and dietary habits, on the step-by-step transition rates using data from a high-risk population in Matsu Islands, Taiwan. Second, we incorporated information on the gastric cancer carcinogenesis affected by genomic risk factors (including inherited susceptibility and irreversible genomic changes) based on literature to generate a genetic and epigenetic risk assessment model by using a simulated cohort identical to the Matsu population. The combination of conventional and genomic risk factors enables us to develop the personalized transition risk scores and composite scores. Results The state-by-state transition rates per year were 0.0053, 0.7523, 0.1750, and 0.0121 per year from normal mucosa to chronic active gastritis, chronic active gastritis to atrophic gastritis, atrophic gastritis to intestinal metaplasia, and intestinal metaplasia to gastric cancer, respectively. Compared with the median risk group, the most risky decile had a 5.22-fold risk of developing gastric cancer, and the least risky decile around one-twelfth of the risk. The median 10-year risk for gastric cancer incidence was 0.77%. The median lifetime risk for gastric cancer incidence was 5.43%. By decile, the 10-year risk ranged from 0.06 to 4.04% and the lifetime risk ranged from 0.42 to 21.04%. Conclusions We demonstrate how to develop a personalized dynamic risk assessment model with the underpinning of Correa’s cascade to stratify the population according to their risk for progression to gastric cancer. Such a risk assessment model not only facilitates the development of an individually-tailored preventive strategy with treatment for H. pylori infection and endoscopic screening but also provides short-term and long-term indicators to evaluate the program effectiveness.

Purpose: Approximately 5%–10% of men who receive prostate cancer radiotherapy will suffer from radiation cystitis. Bladder filling before the administration of radiotherapy results in lower radiation exposure to the bladder. BladderScan, an ultrasound-based bladder volume scanner, has the potential to evaluate bladder volume during radiotherapy; thus, a prospective pilot study was initiated. Methods: Eleven men receiving tomotherapy for localized prostate cancer were enrolled. The validity of BladderScan was evaluated by comparing the measurements from BladderScan with the calculated volume from megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT). With a crossover design to compare different methods in bladder filling, the radiotherapy was divided into 2 sequences. Conventional method: the patient was asked to drink water after voiding urine. The amount of water and the duration of waiting were the same as in the setting of the simulation. BladderScan feedback method: the bladder filling procedure depended on the BladderScan measurements. Results: There were 314 sets of data from 11 patients. The correlation coefficient between V BS and V CT was 0.87, where V BS is the mean volume of 3 measurements by BladderScan and V CT is the bladder volume derived from MVCT. The BladderScan feedback method resulted in a significant larger bladder volume than the conventional method, with a mean difference of 36.9 mL. When the failure was defined as V CT

Introduction The efficacy of smoking cessation intervention has been proven with randomized controlled trials. Our study aims to elucidate the effects of the delivery method of smoking cessation advice on the process of stage of changes with transtheorectical model underpinning in a community setting. Methods A total of 436 subjects were recruited in a quasi-experimental untreated control design study, with 46 receiving advice from healthcare professionals (HCP group) and 390 in the control group, in 2003, Nantou, Taiwan. A discrete time Markov model was used to quantify the multistate process of smoking cessation in light of the transtheorectical model. Multiple polytomous logistic regression models were simultaneously applied to different transitions. Results The estimated forward transition probabilities were higher in the HCP group compared to their counterparts in the control group. On the other hand, the backward transition probabilities were smaller in the HCP group. After adjusting for confounding factors, HCP had a 4.3-fold (95% CI: 2.21–8.46) odds ratio of moving forward from the contemplation stage, and 2.4-fold odds ratio (95% CI: 1.03–4.42) from the preparation stage. Elderly people were more reluctant to change from precontemplation (AOR=0.50; 95% CI: 0.34–0.74) and contemplation (AOR=0.58; 95% CI: 0.44–0.84), but once in the preparation stage, they were more likely to take action (AOR=1.28; 95% CI: 1.01–1.83). For those in the preparation stage, longer smoking years had a negative effect on taking action (AOR=0.74; 95% CI: 0.52–0.99), but cessation advice from others enhanced the likelihood to take action (AOR=1.36; 95% CI: 1.01–1.99). Conclusions The direct advice on smoking cessation from healthcare professionals enforced the net forward transition towards smoking cessation, especially the transition from contemplation and preparation. The proposed Markov regression model assessed the net effect of different intervention approaches allowing for the simultaneous consideration of multiple transitions and the effects of other confounders.

Background. Emergency department (ED) crowding and prolonged lengths of stay continue to be important medical issues. It is difficult to apply traditional methods to analyze multiple streams of the ED patient management process simultaneously. The aim of this study was to develop a statistical model to delineate the dynamic patient flow within the ED and to analyze the effects of relevant factors on different patient movement rates. Methods. This study used a retrospective cohort available with electronic medical data. Important time points and relevant covariates of all patients between January and December 2013 were collected. A new five-state Markov model was constructed by an expert panel, including three intermediate states: triage, physician management, and observation room and two final states: admission and discharge. A day was further divided into four six-hour periods to evaluate dynamics of patient movement over time. Results. A total of 149,468 patient records were analyzed with a median total length of stay being 2.12 (interquartile range = 6.51) hours. The patient movement rates between states were estimated, and the effects of the age group and triage level on these movements were also measured. Patients with lower acuity go home more quickly (relative rate (RR): 1.891, 95% CI: 1.881–1.900) but have to wait longer for physicians (RR: 0.962, 95% CI: 0.956–0.967) and admission beds (RR: 0.673, 95% CI: 0.666–0.679). While older patients were seen more quickly by physicians (RR: 1.134, 95% CI: 1.131–1.139), they spent more time waiting for the final state (for admission RR: 0.830, 95% CI: 0.821–0.839; for discharge RR: 0.773, 95% CI: 0.769–0.776). Comparing the differences in patient movement rates over a 24-hour day revealed that patients wait longer before seen by physicians during the evening and that they usually move from the ED to admission afternoon. Predictive dynamic illustrations show that six hours after the patients’ entry, the probability of still in the ED system ranges from 28% in the evening to 38% in the morning. Conclusions. The five-state model well described the dynamic ED patient flow and analyzed the effects of relevant influential factors at different states. The model can be used in similar medical settings or incorporate different important covariates to develop individually tailored approaches for the improvement of efficiency within the health professions.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common cancer in Taiwan, and is the third leading cause of cancer-related death. Screening has been proven the most effective way to reduce CRC mortality, and stool-based screening is currently the most popular method of screening worldwide. In 2004, Taiwanese government launched a nationwide screening program and fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is offered biennially to individuals aged 50 to 75. The results from the program have demonstrated that FIT screening could effectively reduce the mortality from CRC.Nevertheless, there were some problems needed to deal with. First, the occurrence of interval cancers, which are associated with the performance of screening tests or quality of colonoscopy, has affected the program sensitivity. Second, increasing participation in the program has increased the demand for colonoscopy and the burden on public health workers. Third, some individuals are non-compliant with FIT screening, and with the recommendation for colonoscopy after a positive FIT, which may be the result of insufficient awareness toward CRC and screening of the public. Fourth, long-lasting financial support for this program is necessary for its success. All of these problems need to be solved via collaboration between the screening organizer, screening distributor, and professional societies. Keywords: Colonoscopy, Colorectal cancer, Fecal immunochemical test, Mortality, Screening

Retrospective clinical studies showed perioperative epidural analgesia (EA) was associated with better postoperative oncologic outcomes in patients with specific types of non-metastatic cancers. This study aimed to investigate the effects of EA on cancer prognosis after surgical intervention for stage IV colorectal cancer. In this retrospective study, patients with stage IV colorectal cancer undergoing primary tumor resection and metastasectomy between January 2005 and December 2014 were classified into two groups based on their use of perioperative EA or not and evaluated through August 2016. Primary and secondary endpoints were postoperative progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), respectively. A total of 999 patients were included and 165 (16.5%) of them received EA. The median follow-up interval was 17.5 months and no significant difference in PFS or OS was noted between the EA and non-EA groups in the univariate analysis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model identified four independent risk factors both for disease progression and mortality, including American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status ≥ 3, higher pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), multiple distant metastases, and pathologic lymphovascular invasion. After adjustment for the selected risk factors, the effects of EA on PFS and OS remained non-significant (hazard ratio: 1.06, 95% CI: 0.87 to 1.29, for PFS and 0.90, 95% CI: 0.68 to 1.20 for OS). Similar findings were demonstrated by propensity score analysis. Our results did not support the association between perioperative epidural analgesia and better progression-free or overall survival in patients following stage IV colorectal cancer surgery.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200893.].

To compare the efficacy and safety profile between intramuscular (IM) olanzapine and IM haloperidol plus IM lorazepam in acute schizophrenic patients with moderate to severe agitation. Methods: This was a prospective, randomized, open-label study. Acutely agitated patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (n = 67) were randomized to receive 10 mg IM olanzapine (n = 37) or 5 mg IM haloperidol plus 2 mg IM lorazepam (n = 30). Agitation was measured with Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Excited Component (PANSS-EC) and Agitation–Calmness Evaluation Scale (ACES) during the first 2 hours and at 24 hours after the first injection. Safety was assessed using the Simpson–Angus Scale and Barnes Akathisia Rating Scale and by recording adverse events at 24 hours following the first injection. The Clinical Global Impression-Severity scale was also rated. Results: The PANSS-EC scores decreased significantly at 2 hours after the first injection in both groups (olanzapine: −10.2, p

BACKGROUND:Emergency department (ED) crowding continues to be an important health care issue in modern countries. Among the many crucial quality indicators for monitoring the throughput process, a patient's length of stay (LOS) is considered the most important one since it is both the cause and the result of ED crowding. The aim of this study is to identify and quantify the influence of different patient-related or diagnostic activities-related factors on the ED LOS of discharged patients. METHODS:This is a retrospective electronic data analysis. All patients who were discharged from the ED of a tertiary teaching hospital in 2013 were included. A multivariate accelerated failure time model was used to analyze the influence of the collected covariates on patient LOS. RESULTS:A total of 106,206 patients were included for analysis with an overall medium ED LOS of 1.46 (interquartile range = 2.03) hours. Among them, 96% were discharged by a physician, 3.5% discharged against medical advice, 0.5% left without notice, and only 0.02% left without being seen by a physician. In the multivariate analysis, increased age (>80 vs

Higher mortality due to various forms of cancer was observed in emigrants, who had moved from the isolated and impoverished Taiwanese island of Matsu to the more affluent main island. A total of 13,691 ethnic Matsunese aged 30 years and above were enrolled in a study comparing cumulative and standardised mortality rates between emigrants to the main island of Taiwan and those who stayed behind. Poisson regression modelling was used to analyse the effects of migration. For all causes of mortality, the adjusted relative risk was 1.24 with a confidence interval (CI) at the 95% level of 1.08-1.42 for emigrants compared to Matsunese non-emigrants. Deaths from cancer and diabetes in emigrants showed similar results, i.e. an adjusted relative risk of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.00-1.57) and 1.93 (95% CI, 1.20-3.11), respectively. Higher cumulative incidence rates for all cancers and the three leading cancer forms (hepatocellular carcinoma, gastric cancer and lung cancer) in emigrants were also observed. However, no significant difference in the survival time of most of the cancer forms was noted between the two groups. The finding that moving to a more affluent area paradoxically leads to incidence of cancer and higher mortality might be explained by adoption of various forms of unhealthy behaviour, psycho-social factors and the general risks related to life in urbanized environments.

Introduction A screening program provides a teachable moment for primary prevention such as encouraging smoking cessation. However, little is known about the efficacy of smoking cessation intervention delivered to the general population through a community-based screening program. Material and Methods A quasi-experimental untreated control design with pre-test and post-test was conducted with 42 subjects receiving advice from physician and nurses (the PNA group), 39 receiving an informational leaflet (the leaflet group), and 308 control subjects. Results The overall rate of reaching the action stage was 25 %, 5.7 %, and 7.8 in the PNA group, the leaflet group, and the control group, respectively. In approximately 45–60 % of all participants, the stage remained unchanged. Such an association between the intervention groups and stage changes was statistically significant (p = 0.02). The PNA group was more likely to have the improvement of stage (forward transition toward action stage) than the control group [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.27 (1.07–4.84)]. Deterioration (backward transition toward precontemplation) in the PNA intervention group was 37 % lower than that in the control group [aOR = 0.63 (0.20–2.01)]. Conclusions This study demonstrated that smoking cessation advice from physician and nurse is conducive to smoking cessation, as shown by greater movement toward and less movement away from smoking cessation through a community-based integrated screening platform.

BACKGROUND:Outreach (i.e., to invite those who do not use, or who under use screening services) and inreach (i.e., to invite an existing population who have already accessed the medical system) approaches may influence people to increase their use of screening test; however, whether their outcomes would be equivalent remains unclear. METHODS:A total of 3,363,896 subjects, 50-69 years of age, participated in a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program using biennial fecal immunochemical tests; 34.5% participated during 2004-2009 when the outreach approach alone was used, and 65.5% participated from 2010-2013 when outreach was integrated with an inreach approach. We compared the outcomes of the two approaches in delivery of screening services. RESULTS:Coverage rates increased from 21.4% to 36.9% and the positivity rate increased from 4.0% to 7.9%, while referral for confirmatory diagnostic examinations declined from 80.0% to 53.3%. The first period detected CRC in 0.20% of subjects screened, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 6.1%, and the second detected CRC in 0.34% of subjects, with a PPV of 8.0%. After adjusting for confounders, differences were observed in the PPV for CRC (adjusted relative risk, 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-1.60), cancer detection rate (1.20; 95% CI, 1.13-1.27), and interval cancer rate (0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80). When we focused on the comparison between two approaches during the same study period of 2010-2013, the positivity rate of fecal testing (8.2% vs. 7.6%) and the PPV for CRC detection remained higher (1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12) in subjects who were recruited from the inreach approach. CONCLUSIONS:Outcomes of screening were equivalent or better after integration of outreach and inreach approaches. IMPACT:The results will encourage makers of health-care policy to adopt the integration approach to deliver screening services.

Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia is a recognized health risk for newborns. It can cause kernicterus and hearing impairment. Certain groups of infants who do not have significant jaundice during the first few days of life develop hyperbilirubinemia later. Because early discharge is a worldwide trend, prompt identification of this group of infants is of paramount importance in preventing complications. Methods: The data used were derived from a medical center. A total of 523 term or near-term infants were enrolled in this study. All infants were scheduled for follow-up visits. In this study, late-onset neonatal hyperbilirubinemia was defined as a total bilirubin level greater than 15 mg/dL, or receiving phototherapy at 5-7 days. Newborns that had clinically significant jaundice within 96 hours of life were excluded from analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were applied for statistical analysis. Results: One hundred and eighty infants were included for data analysis. Thirty-nine (21.7%) had late onset hyperbilirubinemia. Exclusive breast-feeding and less body weight loss during the 1st day of life were both significant risk factors for late onset hyperbilirubinemia. However, early discharge was not associated with late-onset hyperbilirubinemia. Conclusion: Thirty-nine (21.7%) infants develop late hyperbilirubinemia at the age of one week. Exclusive breast-feeding and less body weight loss were significant risk factors. Follow-up visits are recommended for all infants, especially for those who have these risk factors.

Fatigue is not only common in clinical patients but is also prevalent in the healthy population. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence rate of fatigue and identify significant risk factors among graduate students. Methods: Health check-ups were carried out on graduate students who were newly admitted to the National Taiwan University in this cross-sectional study. A total of 1806 attendees (response rate, 84%) agreed to participate in the fatigue survey, which used the Checklist Individual Strength questionnaire (CIS-20). The modified Baecke's questionnaire was used to quantify the intensity of physical activity. Results: The prevalence rates of fatigue were 45.8% for males and 48.9% for females. Regular meal (odds ratio [OR], 0.69) and exercise habits (OR, 0.68), insomnia (OR, 2.23), greater amount of sleeping time (OR, 0.7), identity (doctorate vs. master students; OR, 0.61), and chronic disease history (OR, 1.61) were statistically significant predictors for fatigue. Intensity of physical activity was a protective factor (ORs, 0.72, 0.50 and 0.36 in the 2nd, 3rd and top quartiles vs. 1st quartile;p < 0.001). Conclusion: A high prevalence rate of fatigue among the graduate students was demonstrated. The risk factors among young adults are not only related to current chronic disease and insomnia but are also attributed to the lack of physical activity.

The ankle-brachial blood pressure (BP) index (ABI) not only indicates the presence of peripheral artery occlusive disease (PAOD) but predicts mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). However, whether the site of PAOD can provide additional contribution to predicting mortality have not been investigated yet. Our primary objective was to determine the associations between the site of PAOD and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in chronic HD (CHD) patients.A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate 444 Taiwanese CHD patients between December 2006 and June 2013. The site of PAOD together with other explanatory variables such as demographic data, body mass index, a history of cardiovascular diseases, HD vintage, biochemical data, and cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) were assessed by the Cox proportional hazards regression model.The frequency of PAOD was 14.6% in both legs, 4.9% in the right side only, and 5.1% in the left side only. During the study period, 127 all-cause and 93 cardiovascular deaths occurred. PAOD site was found to have significant predictive power for all-cause mortality with the order of 3.04 (95% CI: 1.56-5.90) hazard ratio on the right side, 2.48 (95% CI: 1.27-4.82) on the left side, and 4.11 (95% CI: 2.76-6.13) on both sides. The corresponding figures for cardiovascular mortality were 3.81 (95% CI: 1.87-7.76) on the right side, 2.76 (95% CI: 1.30-5.82) on the left side, and 3.95 (95% CI: 2.45-6.36) on both sides. After adjustment for other explanatory variables, only right-sided PAOD still remained to have significant predictive power for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and bilateral PAOD kept the significant association with all-cause mortality.The site of PAOD revealed various predictive powers for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in CHD patients and only right-sided PAOD remained an independent predictor for both types of mortality making allowance for relevant confounding factors.

Understanding the impact of multiple genetic variants and their interactions on the disease penetrance of familial multiple prostate cancer is very relevant to the overall understanding of carcinogenesis. We assessed the joint effect of two loci on rs4242382 at 8q24 and rs10486567 at 7p15.2 to this end. We analyzed the data from a Finnish family-based genetic study, which was composed of 947 men including 228 cases in 75 families, to evaluate the respective effects of the two loci on the disease penetrance; in particular, the occurrence and number of prostate cancer cases within a family were utilized to evaluate the interactions between the two loci under the additive and multiplicative Poisson regression models. The risk alleles A at rs4242382 (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.08-1.19, P

BackgroundPrevious studies on the association between tuberculosis and the risk of developing ischemic stroke have generated inconsistent results. We therefore performed a population-based, propensity score-matched longitudinal follow-up study to investigate whether contracting non-central nervous system (CNS) tuberculosis leads to an increased risk of ischemic stroke.MethodsWe used a logistic regression model that includes age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. A total of 5804 persons with at least three ambulatory visits in 2001 with the principal diagnosis of non-CNS tuberculosis were enrolled in the tuberculosis group. The non-tuberculosis group consisted of 5804, propensity score-matched subjects without tuberculosis. The three-year ischemic stroke-free survival rates for these 2 groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The stratified Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the effect of tuberculosis on the occurrence of ischemic stroke.ResultsDuring three-year follow-up, 176 subjects in the tuberculosis group (3.0%) and 207 in the non-tuberculosis group (3.6%) had ischemic stroke. The hazard ratio for developing ischemic stroke in the tuberculosis group was 0.92 compared to the non-tuberculosis group (95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.14, P = 0.4299).ConclusionsNon-CNS tuberculosis does not increase the risk of subsequent ischemic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies on the association between migraine and the risk of developing hemorrhagic stroke (HS) have generated inconsistent results. The aim of the present population-based, age- and sex- matched follow-up study was to investigate whether migraine is associated with an increased risk of HS. METHOD: A total of 20925 persons with at least two ambulatory visits in 2001 with the principal diagnosis of migraine were enrolled in the migraine group. The non-migraine group consisted of 104625, age- and sex- matched, randomly sampled subjects without migraine. The two-year HS-free survival rates for these 2 groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the effect of migraine on the occurrence of HS. RESULTS: During the 2 year follow-up, 113 subjects in the migraine group (0.54%) and 255 in the non-migraine group (0.24%) developed HS. The crude hazard ratio (HR) for developing HS in the migraine group was 2.22 compared to the non-migraine group (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78-2.77, p

OBJECTIVE: The risk of stroke in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) remains controversial. The purpose of this population-based propensity score-matched longitudinal follow-up study was to determine whether there is an increased risk of ischemic stroke after PD. METHODS: We used a logistic regression model that includes age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. A total of 2204 patients with at least two ambulatory visits with the principal diagnosis of PD in 2001 was enrolled in the PD group. The non- PD group consisted of 2204, propensity score-matched subjects without PD. The ischemic stroke-free survival rates of the two groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Stratified Cox proportional hazard regression with patients matched on propensity score was used to estimate the effect of PD on the occurrence of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: During the three-year follow-up period, 328 subjects in the PD group and 156 subjects in the non-PD group developed ischemic stroke. The ischemic stroke-free survival rate of the PD group was significantly lower than that of the non-PD group (P